0 $
2,500 $
5,000 $
1,460 $
13 DAYS LEFT UNTIL THE END OF OCTOBER

The Saker: With “Biden” in the White House, the Kremlin Now Needs to Change Gear

Support SouthFront

The Saker: With "Biden" in the White House, the Kremlin Now Needs to Change Gear

ILLUSTRATIVE IMAGE

Written by The Saker; Originally appeared at The Unz Review

First, a clarification.  When I speak of “Biden” I don’t mean the fungus (to use Tom Luongo’s apt expression) which was recently planted in the White House, I am referring to the “collective Biden” which I defined here https://thesaker.is/terminology/.  With this caveat, now let’s see why Russia might want to change gears in 2021.

First, let’s begin by the basics:

Russians often say that US politicians change, but US policies don’t.  There is much truth to that, we saw that very clearly with Obama and Trump: both promised sweeping changes and both pretty much continued the policies of their predecessors, at least on the foreign policy front.  In a way, you could argue that this is normal and even desirable.  A shill for the regime would say something along the lines that “well, that is normal, US national security priorities don’t change with each administration, so all this proves is that no matter what any candidate promises during his campaign, once in office he/she becomes aware of the hard realities of this words and then act on it just like their predecessors did“.  This argument is deeply flawed, however, because it completely ignores the will of the US people (who, let’s not forget that, voted for change every time they got a chance to, be it with Obama or with Trump) and it assumes that only those “in the know” realize and know what they have to do.  This kind of “logic” is typical for the elitism of the US ruling classes.

It also ignores the fact that while US Presidents are really puppets, figureheads, even if during their campaign they pretend otherwise. As for the elections, every four years in the USA, they are nothing but a grand brainwashing show whose sole purpose is to give the illusion of people power.  They could have presidential elections every 2 years, or even every year, none of that would change the fact that the US is a plutocratic dictatorship with much less people power than any other state in the collective West.

In fact, the argument above is just a tiny fig leaf trying to conceal the undeniable fact that the USA are not ruled by a person, but are ruled by a class, in the Marxist sense of this world.  Personally, I call this ruling class the “US Nomenklatura“.  And while both Obama and Trump pretended to want real change, they both lost that chance (assuming they ever wanted this is the first place, which I doubt) when they did not do what Putin did when he came to office: crush the Russian oligarchs as a class (some fled abroad, some died, some lost it all, and some agreed to play by Putin’s new rules).  Obama, being the vapid and spineless car salesman that he, is probably never even contemplated any real move against the US Nomenklatura.  As for Trump, being the pompous narcissist that he is, he might have even entertained some thoughts of showing “who is boss”, but that lasted only 1 month, until the US Nomenklatura forced Trump to fire Flynn (after that, it was all freefall…).

Anyway, the point is that we should not expect immense, sweeping changes from *any* administration.  Since the best predictor of future behavior is past behavior, we should assume that mostly we will get “more of the same, maybe even worse”.  What am I talking about here?  Here is a (partial) list of these “more of the sames”:

  1. Further vilification of Russia, Russians and everything Russian by the entire western media (which is even less diverse and more uniformly lying than anything Goebbels or Suslov could ever had dreamed up!).  You can think of it as “full spectrum russophobia”.
  2. Even more “sanctions” against all Russian interests (economic, political, etc.) worldwide.  The US sees this as a pure zero-sum game, any loss by Russia, no matter how marginal and puny is a victory for the AngloZionist Empire.
  3. A return to Obama-era style military missile and air strikes.  Probably not on Russian targets (yes, Hillary advocated that, but now this would be much more dangerous than 5 years ago), but definitely on Russian allies like Syria (including attacks on Iranian and Venezuelan vessels on the high seas).
  4. A return to Obama-era petty harassment of Russian diplomats and citizens.  The goal here is not to achieve anything meaningful, but rather it is to show that “Russia is weak and cannot prevent us from treating her like a 3rd rate power”.  There is nothing the USA could do which would really hurt Russia, so Uncle Shmuel will turn his rage on those few diplomats and even civilians it can kidnap, jail, expel, sanction, extort, threaten etc.
  5. Even more sabre-rattling all along the Russian borders.  I fully expect that US forces will be deployed in the Baltic statelets on a permanent basis (not on a rotation basis).  USAF aircraft and USN ships will continue to harass Russian defenses under the pretext of “innocent passage”, “freedom of navigation” and the like.
  6. Since the Biden Admin is a “who’s who” of Jewish and Ukrainian extremists (some combo!), and since Biden is personally implicated in the Ukraine (along with Hunter), we can also expect a rapid degradation of the political situation in the Ukraine and even more provocations than under Trump.  As they say, these folks will “fight Russia down to the last Ukrainian”.

None of that will have any direct impact on Russia (for a detailed discussion, see here).  However, this does not mean that Russia should continue to pretend like this is “business as usual” and take blow after blow after blow.  Why?  For a number of reasons:

  1. There is plenty of evidence that the Russian people are getting fed-up with what they see is a rather weak, if not lame, attitude of Russian officials, especially against the constant flow of petty harassment measures against Russian interests.  Folks in the West are never told this (after all, informing is not the mission of the corporate media), but the “patriotic” opposition to the Kremlin is much more dangerous than the hopelessly discredited pro-western “liberal” one (more about that below).  The calls for a much more energetic “push-back” are now regularly heard, including from rather mainstream politicians.
  2. There is also plenty of evidence that the “Biden gang” will want not only to fully resume Obama-era policies towards the Ukraine (trigger more violent incidents & support for the Ukie Nazis) but that these policies will now also be extended towards Belarus.  The fact that these policies are unlikely to succeed does not mean that Russia’s best response to them is to maintain a “wait and see” position.  It is pretty self-evident that any form of restraint by Russia is immediately explained away as “weakness” by the western propaganda machine.  Any more such “restraint” will only make things more dangerous and more difficult for Russia and Putin personally.  In other words, at this point in time, “restraint” only invites more aggression.
  3. Furthermore, 2021 is an election (Parliament) year in Russia.  Now, irrespective of anything Russia does, no matter how transparent or un-falsifiable Russian elections are, the West will use that opportunity to try to get violent riots in the streets of Russia before the elections and, after the election, the West will declare that the Russian elections were “undemocratic” and go on about “supporting the just democratic aspirations of the Russian people” (especially Russian homosexuals, of course!) and the like.
  4. Finally, it is pretty clear that the Biden Cabinet brings together the crème de la crème of Zionist russophobes from the US deep state.  These people are characterized by the following and very dangerous characteristics: narcissistic and messianic racist self-love, a “God ordained” racist hatred for all of mankind, a personal/family history of hatred for Russia, deep involvement in many Ukie corruption schemes, an almost total failure to understand that consequences and nature of war combined with a delusional belief in invulnerability and impunity (while the former is false, the latter has been true, at least so far), etc.  This is a very dangerous combination, to say the least!

The truth is that pseudo-liberals are amongst the most dangerous creatures out there.  Yes, their current “geopolitical toolkit” (the USA and the AngloZionist Empire) is weak, but that does not mean that Russia (or the rest of the world) can simply ignore these dangerous psychopaths.

The good (or even excellent!) news is that Trump gave Russia four more years to prepare for what is coming next, and that the Russia+China tandem is in much better shape today than it was 4 years ago.  For example, the Russian internal security situation is now the best ever, as witnessed to by the fact that the Russian federal “wanted list” does not include a single Chechen national; the self-styled “last Emir of the Caucasus”, Aslan Byutukayev, was killed on January 20th, which made it possible for Ramzan Kadyrov to “declare a total victory over terrorism” in Russia).  In plain English this means that every single Chechen who has ever committed an act of terrorism in Russia has been identified and is now either dead (most of them) or jailed (only a few).  Despite these achievements, I am not sure about the “total victory over terrorism” because there are still violent groups in several regions Russia.  Besides, if the “Axis of Kindness” (US/Israel/KSA, sometimes joined by the country many Russians think of as “Puny Britain”) special services decide to reignite an insurgency in Russia, they might have at least some success, especially initially.  The FSB/FSO better not let their guard down, especially in Dagestan, the Far East, Crimea and the Moscow region!

In purely military terms, Russia is completely “out of reach” for the United States armed forces, even with the EU/NATO thrown in.  I have written a lot about that, and I won’t repeat any of this here.  Suffice to say that Russia now has the best armed forces she has had in decades while the US has an immense, truly grotesquely bloated, military, but not one that can get anything done other than killing (and, at that, mostly civilians).  Even if we look just at nuclear strategic forces of Russia they are at least a decade, if not more, ahead of the West.  This is the first time since WWII that Russia is that powerful, and now she can reap the many advantages of being militarily secure.

All this being said, I have personally always defended what I called the Kremlin’s “restraint” for the simple reason that when I look at the aggregate power (not just military!) of Russia and the AngloZionist Empire I still see the latter as much stronger.  However, I have do admit that the trend of this relationship is a positive one, that is to say that over the past decade or so Russia has become much, much, stronger while the USA and the Empire have become much, much, weaker. Under Biden, this trend will only accelerate.

The time has now come for Russia to adapt her own policies to this new reality.

And the very first thing the Kremlin ought to change is its language, its rhetoric.  Yes, “restraint” is good, especially when escalation into a full-scale war is amongst the possible outcomes of any crisis, but “restraint” cannot be a goal in itself.  For example, while the USA+NATO does, objectively, represent a major anti-Russian threat (if only because they are weak and can only count on their nukes to protect them!).  Likewise, the ugly “Banderastan” which the Ukronazis turned the good old Ukraine into is not a threat to Russia whatsoever.  So why not seriously turn down a few economic screws to make the Ukronazis feel that their never ending stream of insults and (empty) threats can have consequences?

Next, the Kremlin needs to mix strong words with strong actions!

Just this Sunday, January, the 24th,  the US Embassy in Moscow was involved in openly coordinating the (small, but violent and illegal!) riots in Moscow, just the same way the NEXTA Telegram channel has done in Belarus.  So what did the Kremlin do in response?  The Russian Foreign Ministry did order US diplomats to the MID building and… … gave them a note of firm protest.

And that’s it?!

I don’t think anybody in the US Embassy in Moscow gives a damn about Russian protests. If anything, US “diplomats” probably get a good laugh each time they get such protests.  And everybody knows that, including the Russian diplomats.  So why do they hold to such a lame “communications line”?

The Russian Navy recently gave a very good example of how a good word can have much more effect when backed with some good action: remember when (of all names!) the USS John McCain recently breached the Russian maritime border?  The Russian Navy did tell the McCain to withdraw, but it added that the Russian large antisubmarine ship (a “destroyer” in western terminology) Admiral Vinogradov would “ram” the McCain if his warnings were not heeded.  Needless to say, the McCain got out really fast (the USN already has experienced this kind of situation in the past, see here).  The problem with ramming, at least for the USN, is that you can hardly reply by opening up with your weapons, which would be truly suicidal inside Russian waters and near the (heavily fortified) Russian coastline.  As for the Russians, they are “crazy” enough to do that, even when their ship is smaller (ask any US sailor who served in the US submarine force, they know!).  The simple truth is that the Russian sailors “mean business” (the one of defending their motherland) whereas the US sailors, well, how shall I put it?  They do very much want to “show the flag” and “defend principles”, but not if they might get seriously hurt.  That’s just a fact.  From the Russian point of view, joining the military means accepting that pain and death come with the territory. 1000 years of warfare have truly imprinted that on the Russian collective psyche.

[Sidebar: by the way, a lot of US Americans love to repeat these famous words by General Patton: “No bastard ever won a war by dying for his country. He won it by making the other poor dumb bastard die for his country“.  This is a neat aphorism, and it very much caters to a typically US view of warfare.  It is also almost perfectly wrong, as any Russian, Iranian or Hezbollah fighter could tell you – that is *not* how you win wars.  In fact, this is how you lose them.  And this is why putative “dumb bastards” beat the crap out of US forces over and over again…]

At the very least, it is high time to reduce the number of US officials in Russia: I am talking about diplomats, of course, but also the entire menagerie of “volunteers”, “NGOs” and, most definitely, US “journalists” accredited in Russia.  Reducing their numbers will also make it easier for the FSB/FSO to keep an eye on the rest of them.

Next, I would also show a large number of EU “guests” to the door: after all, why keep them in this nightmarish Putin’s Mordor?  Let’s send them back to the “freedom” they, apparently, care for so much (at least when in Russia; when in Paris, Berlin or Rotterdam – not so much).

[Sidebar: Frankly, they EU rulers have gone completely insane.  Now the EU is seriously considering cancelling the almost completed North Stream 2 over the Navalnyi nonsense!  Sacrificing a multi-billion dollar project crucial to the EU economy over the fate of one particularly uninspiring and fake pseudo-dissident whose support in Russia is less than one percent (as shown by the miniscule crowds which violently rioted on is behalf).  What the EU leaders fail to appreciate is that Russia needs NS2 much less than the EU does, as Russia’s main gas plans are fully focused on China.  There is a good Russian expression about the kind of threats the EU makes: to “try to scare a hedgehog with a naked bottom!”.  The EU really needs to be placed on a suicide watch, imho.]

Frankly, this entire western “fauna” has become accustomed to living in Russia while making a living hating on Russia.  They mostly got away with it in the 80s, they totally got away with it in the 90s, and for the past twenty years the Kremlin has done precious little to change this.  I think that the “message” (westerners love “messages”) from the Kremlin should be simple: living and working in Russia is not a right, it is a privilege.  If you can’t behave, then you have overstayed your welcome.  In the current context, the West has much more to lose from this kind of policy than Russia (especially since Russian diplomats were already expelled, and Russian consular buildings illegally closed).

Next, Russia needs to respond to the US zero-sum-game, but not by accepting such a logic for herself.  The main problem with the zero-sum-game mindset is that it is extremely wasteful: the side engaging in it has to spent a lot of time and efforts trying to deny *any* victory, or even mildly positive development, to the other side.  What Russia should do instead, is define a list of vulnerable and important targets/goals of the Empire, and then focus her resources and energy denying them to the USA.  Such a fully focused effort is much more efficient than the kind of “full spectrum pestering” the USA typically engages in.  The good news, at least for Russia, is that the USA is both vulnerable and weak, economically, militarily, culturally, socially – you name it.  As for the Empire, it has been dead for a while already: it simply ceased to operate as an empire a while ago already.  Again, this reality is carefully hidden in what I call “Zone A“, but in Zone B everybody knows it, even if they pretend otherwise.

[Sidebar: the perfect place for Russia to really make a difference would be Iran.  Though the Iranians are extremely sophisticated players, both their diplomats and their military, they badly need Russian help, especially in such fields as early warning systems, targeting, over the horizon radars, air defenses (ground and air based), antisubmarine warfare, coastal defenses, etc. – you name it!  Iran is, by far, the most important country in the Middle-East and Iran is therefore constantly under threat by the “Axis of Kindness”.  Russia has not, so far, taken the strategic decision to give Iran the means to be safe, at least in part to be able to put pressure on Tehran when needed (Russian and Iranian goals in Syria are similar in some ways, but also distinct in others).

Finally, the Kremlin needs to become much more attuned to the arguments of the “patriotic opposition”.  For one thing, many of the arguments of this patriotic opposition are correct, so listening to them is simply common sense.  Second, some of these arguments are flawed, but they cannot be ignored: these arguments need counter-arguments.  Simply assuming that the Russian people will always support the Kremlin no matter what is delusional and dangerous.  Finally, some of these arguments are based on fallacies and only serve the interests of the USA/EU/NATO block.  The fact that some Russians sincerely repeat them is a dangerous sign of how susceptible some segments of the Russian society still are to US PSYOPs.  For all these reasons, the Kremlin has to change its PR policies which are, frankly, becoming stale and sometimes even toxic.

[Sidebar:  right now, there are three basic kind of opposition in Russia: the fake opposition in the Duma, which talks a lot, but basically supports the Kremlin, the non-systemic pro-US/EU opposition which probably speaks for about one percent of the Russian people, and the non-systemic “patriotic” opposition, which is also rather small, but which really needs to be represented in the Duma and become “part of the system of institutions” (as opposed to the current “one man show”) of Russia]

I am in no way suggesting that Russia should become confrontational or provocative.  All that is needed is for Russia to be less “diplomatic” and much more forceful in the defense of her interests.  That in turn means two things:  Russian officials need to change their rather demure tone when dealing with western imperialists and, second, Russian officials needs to back their words with real, measurable, actions.

Conclusion: learn from your mistakes

Russian history is filled with cases when diplomats simply wasted the efforts and successes achieved by the Russian military.  This is why the Russian military has a saying “the blood of some is spilled because of the incompetence of others” (another version: “some had to become heroes to undo that which cowards did“).  Finally, if there is one thing which Russian history has shown beyond any doubt it is that the internal enemy is much, much more dangerous than the external one.

I have always maintained that the Empire and Russia have been at war since at least 2014.  This is not the purely military WWIII, of course, but a war which is 80% economic, 15% informational and only 5% kinetic.  This is, nonetheless, a total/existential war which will end with only one side standing, the other will vanish.  For Russia, this is a war for the survival of the Russian civilizational realm, hardly a minor matter.  Besides, this 80/15/5 percent war could quickly turn into a 0/0/100 kinetic one.  Thus Russia needed to be very careful indeed.  Now, roughly seven or eight years later, we can see that Russia has been winning, which is very good.  But this war is far from over, such processes are very slow, and Russia simply cannot assume that “more of the same” from her will be enough to be victorious.  All in all, the Russian policy towards the collective West has been both sound and very effective, but now the time has come for meaningful change.  Should the Kremlin ignore these changing circumstances, then Russia might, yet again, be forced to solve with her military that which the diplomats failed to protect and preserve.  God willing, Putin will heed the lessons taught by the history of Russia.

MORE ON THE TOPIC:

Support SouthFront

SouthFront

Subscribe
Notify of
guest
63 Comments
Oldest
Newest Most Voted
Inline Feedbacks
View all comments
julot

Complete desinfo, the alliance are ‘EU + china’ (as shown by latest economic deal right after Biden fake election, against ‘Russia + USA’ (remember insurection in far East russia made possible by tiktok?). Note that Biden doesnt control US military as shown by fact Flynn’s brother was just nominated at top of pacific fleet

Tommy Jensen

Both jumping over a continent to get an Ally? Nahhh.

julot

US russia alliance is nothing new, it is centeries long, the fight is pseudo populist vs pseudo communist

adam77

All 4 have abortion rights and should ally, plus India, against abortion banning nations like Iran, Syria, Venezuela and KSA.

Just Me

Mr. Saker has hit the nail on the head as always, the US policies are embedded in every orifice of the Zionist led puppet government of the disunited snakes of AmeriKKKa. The deep state has miscalculated that Russia which is a civilized and immensely rich nation would be easy pickings for domination and Balkanization like its ill-fated predecessor, the USSR. However, the Bilderberg cabal have miscalculated as Russia today is a more homogeneous and consolidated powerful nuclear armed state and has many friends including China and Iran. Russia also has many strategic cards up its sleeve and needs to take a tougher stance against the real banana republic of the disunited snakes.

Fog of War

” Russia today is a more homogeneous ”
Actually, Russia is LESS homogenous then any other time in its history. Look at the breakdown of Russia’s population statistics. Indigenous Russians are disappearing while ” Russians on paper ” are expanding in greater numbers.

Jon

Some correct observations; some illusions. Biggest illusion: China is ally. As soon as China sensed weakness in Russia’s domestic political scene it fanned the flames. Clearly not an ally in long run, and these days “long run” can be very very short.

Russia needs Germany. Germany needs north stream.

Putin is not the worthless “one man show” you dub him to be. With his consolidated power he can actually do things.

Putin needs to not focus on Belarus or Ukraine but jump over them and focus on Germany. Draw the West as an ally to Russia in the only real contest Russia faces: China.

Jihadi Colin

“As soon as China….fanned the flames”.

And the proof of this is? The puerile SouthFront assertion, unbacked by evidence, that China is “allowing TikTok to be used against Russia”?

TikTok outside China isn’t even owned by the Chinese government and it does not control the latter.

Anything else?

Just Me

Written straight from Langley. Divide and Rule.

cechas vodobenikov

CIA pay you?

Lone Ranger

+25 cents.
Dont spend it all at once…

Veritas Vincit

Perception of weakness emboldens adversaries. While diplomatic channels should always remain open, tangible responses to hostile actions serves as a deterrent. The posture of China is an example of displaying credible deterrence. Russia has a far more formidable deterrent potential and if combined with the capabilities of China together form a developing alliance the Western bloc would regret confronting. Recent joint patrols of strategic aviation sent a message the military cooperation between these nations is comprehensive and developing further. As a kinetic stage of conflict is likely approaching both nations (US-DPP moves to violate the Anti-Secession Law, US-NATO-allied bloc backing of the coup installed Ukrainian regime that reports show is preparing to attempt to forcefully change the status of the ethnically Russian regions of the Donbass and Crimea, US-ROK indicating they will intensify actions against the DPRK, etc.), the further integration of military (and strategic) forces is likely to occur.

Ashok Varma

Russia has mistakenly tried to play by very civilized rules against these western racist imperialist criminals, who indeed take politeness as a sign of weakness. China and Iran don’t show any weakness or eagerness to appease these western thugs so they are given a wide berth. Russia, even though truncated by the fall of the USSR is still a large and powerful nation with wide ranging influence and the west in in irreversible decline, so Russia needs a more assertive stance.

Veritas Vincit

P2. The Biden Administration is seeking the formation of alliances to confront China, Russia and Iran (this concept being applied more broadly but with emphasis on these targeted nations). In the process they have unwittingly created counter-alliances that for the US (and allies) constitute worst case scenarios. If the globally expanding wars (of aggression) of US-led coalitions progress to (potentially concurrent) situations of war against Russia, China, Iran and the DPRK, the US and its allies will likely eventually experience another worst case scenario (US-NATO development of close proximity fast first strike potential reducing detection to response times/radar data also unable to identify if warheads are conventional or nuclear, contributing to responses being made accordingly).

Note: While not imminent (and may or may not occur), a potential nuclear warfare event does not translate to human extinction. It would however eclipse previous wars (if such a scenario were to occur in the future, it is recommended to have adequate provisions (4 weeks minimum) and to remain sheltered from fallout for this period). For many from the Western bloc (government officials, advisors, war propagating media, etc.) who would be held responsible for such a horror, being the product of the aggressive globally expanding militarism of this bloc, they need not concern themselves about efforts to survive such an event as if they were to survive they would only do so to wish they had not. If I am wrong, they have little to fear. If I am correct, they will have cause for concern. They will not have to wait long to find out as unfolding developments are already in advanced stages, with outcomes being both logical and therefore largely predictable (behaviours that resulted in situations of world war being repeated only this time in a nuclear era).

Veritas Vincit

References:
1 “Russia does not want war and does not intend to start a war. But today, Russia can see that the explosion of a global war is almost unavoidable and is prepared and will continue preparing. Russia does not want a war but is not afraid of a war. Those who get Russia involved in this process will learn the real meaning of pain”. [Vladimir Putin] (At the Threshold of a Third World War, Southfront, 12/09/2016),

2. “if data on Russia-NATO power balance at the Western direction is analyzed, as well as military activity build-up rate at our borders, scale of combat equipment deployment, if the grade of Russia’s demonization is estimated, one can say that preparation to a real war is taking place. [Such] acts are usually undertaken at the forefront of a war [and it is evident] the US is preparing for a [potential] nuclear conflict……” [Colonel General Leonid Ivashov, President of the International Centre of Geopolitical Analysis]

3. “The present anti-missile systems in Eastern Europe are based on the universal platform MK-41 and its technical specifications allow launching “Tomahawk” missiles [based on compatible MK-14 launch canisters] with a range of 2 500 km at any point of the Russian European territories in violation of the prohibition of the contract. There is hardly anything that threatened world security as much as this move of Washington. Even the Cuban Missile Crisis was not charged with such a high risk level. People do not understand how potentially dangerous the situation really is. “The world is pulled into an entirely new dimension, while Washington pretends that nothing happens,” Russian President, Vladimir Putin, said…..” (On the Verge of a Major War: Is There a Pilot in the Cockpit?, Southfront, 17/10/2016)

Tommy Jensen

We have the right to defend freedom on American soil and our way of living with MK-14, because Russia has Kalibr-missiles threatening and attacking our assets and Allies in Syria and other places.

Veritas Vincit

You are welcome to believe whatever you would like to believe. Communicating with fools and online trolls is a waste of time. I have no more time to waste on you.

Redadmiral

Tommy is just a bufoon, sometimes well meaning and other times not. Ignoring him is the best option. Ocassionally, very ocassionally he can be insightful.

Leif Oskar Zetterstrøm
Tommy Jensen

To tell you the truth I am a bit tired of the room all this Israel and Joo bs get.
Too much room. If someone from the “semite-team” see this, the qty and the amount destroy the message. People just get anti whatever side you are on.
There is much more present problems we need to resolve.

adam77

Especially since Syria and Iran ban abortion, and are thus very different from Russia, having more in common with Chechen rebels. So Israel is defending abortion rights in the Golan just as Russia is in Chechnya, making them natural allies.

Joe Bloggs

Then the US needs to get outof Syria….and other places it does not belong or was not invited to.

Fog of War

” The posture of China is an example of displaying credible deterrence. ”
China just talks, talks, and talks. I doubt the Zios fear China at all, not to mention, that China is just controlled opposition.

Ashok Varma

Biden’s son has made a lot of corrupt money in Ukraine and his father is beholden to the Jews and they are using Ukraine as a staging post to destabilize Russia. It is time for Russia to take the gloves off in Afghanistan, Iraq, Syria, Libya, Yemen and the Caucasus.

Lost Empire

And with the yankees too!

adam77

Wrong battles, Try Donetsk, N. Korea, Cuba, China, and the Caucasus, where abortion rights are defended.

Tommy Jensen

Kadyrov is really a guy. Thumbs up for this humbled honourable Muslim.

Iran has become a difficult partner. Some says the liberal Rouhani with US and Israeli passports was involved in Soleimani’s dead. Dont be surprised if Iran suddenly become Green Deal and Gay Parade freaks just to get usury loans from “their friends” in West as our full spectrum dominance strategy start to work in Iran……………………………LOL.

“Russia to be less “diplomatic” and much more forceful in the defence of her interests”, meaning we will be even MORE tough and less diplomatic to defend freedom and our way of living!

What TheSaker and Putin forget is, that we have our US Military Space Command with super duper roemer laser weapons. Nobody knows that, because we keep it professional secret classified.
Therefore Putin and Kremlin are walking with cat feet and cant do a shit whatever we do against them……………………………LOL.

My advise is that Russia should admit that we are a winner nation of winners. Admit it!

Lone Ranger

The crumbling U.S. Empire is coming to an end.
But instead of going silently into the night they are kicking and screaming trying to destroy the Whole World if they cant have it for themselves.
Thankfully there are adults in the room to keep the little delusional spychos in check.
I predict a massive exodus from the U.S. even more than in the past.
10million Americans are already expats up from 6million in 2008.
Countries should brace themselves not for millions but tens of millions of Americans asking for political asylum.

RichardD

If the expats were Jews that would be a good thing. Except for where they’re going to.

Lone Ranger

?

johnny rotten

That fat Saker is a know-it-all as always, he gives advice when it would be appropriate to take them, with Jena Bidens in command it means nothing, first because he is not in command and second because he is not even able to change his diaper himself, and what Russia needs perhaps they do not know even in Russia in these times where madness reigns supreme, certainly there is still a lot to improve for the poorest sections of the population, they could look to the USSR for some positive aspects, from education to health care up to the concept of full employment, what still prevents Russia from financing infrastructure capable of producing wealth and jobs? the usual class of parasitic oligarchs, it would also be the time to do a radical cleanup if you don’t want to end up like the corrupt and crepuscular west, after fixing the defenses, think a little about who needs it most and fuck about where and what ago the west, maybe a nice wall to the west very high from where to look and have a good laugh, luckily not to be part of that ugly mess.

The Objective

I used to frequent The Saker’s blog before, and was truly a fan. But recently, I noticed his bias and inaccurate political analysis. I think this guy is better off comparing weapons systems, and leave politics to the experts. All he does is cheerlead. He hardly mentions it when Russia gets outwitted by the West. I only see the opposite of most of what he says about Russia.
The Saker keeps comparing Russia and NATO and talks about how Russia’s weapons are superior. But he forgets that wars today are mostly economic and not military. No country wants to invade another one right now. Therefore, Russia and NATO will NOT fight, at least, not in our generation.
India pulled out of a joint program with Russia over the Su-57. Countries are buying less of Russia’s defense products due to threats of sanctions by the U.S.A. Competitors like China will crush their Russian counterparts. More sanctions will target Russia’s industries should it continue in the current confrontational path with the West. Russian-allied regimes are finding it more difficult to govern. Russia keeps losing its former allies (Ukraine, Gerogia, Azerbaijan, and more to come). Russia is also not in good terms with the Muslim Brotherhood, which it considers terrorists. And the Muslim Brotherhood has won the hearts and minds of at least 80% of the Sunni Muslim world. Erdogan is currently the most popular leader in the Muslim world. Saudi Arabia’s status has fallen. Saudi Arabia tried to convene an alliance of Sunni countries in the war against the houthis of Yemen. Guess what? All of the countries abandoned Saudi Arabia to its war with the Shiites.

The Objective

Here comes The Saker again. A Russian propagandist out of touch with reality.
You Russians and Chinese are a bunch of imperialists, only the U.S doesn’t give you a chance to show your ugly face. Lengthy political propaganda pieces won’t conceal Russia’s evil nature. One has only to look at how Russia bully smaller countries to know the evil they are capable of given the opportunity. From Syria to Libya, Egypt and Nargono Kharabakh, CAR and Sudan, Russia is denying or helping deny the majority a say in the government of their lands.
The Saker may deny or refuse to mention it in several articles that problems are mounting for Russia. He does this to please the pro-Russian audiences of his blog. But the fact is, Russia is suffering a lot more from its rapprochement with the U.S than America does. For example, Putin is stuck in Syria. After wasting so much resources, there is no victory in sight. In fact, defeat is far more likely. It’s either Russia fights an endless war in Syria while being battered by U.S economic sanctions, or admit defeat at a point and give way to democracy. It doesn’t cost the U.S and Turkey a dime to occupy Syria. But Russia spends billions a year on Syria. It’s not clear how long Putin is willing to poor money into this bottomless pit called Syria, but whatever happens, he’s certain to lose when Islamists win through democracy.
A certain fate awaits Russia in Libya, as any democracy in Libya is certain to produce an Islamist victory like before. Haftar is very unpopular among Libyans right now.
In Nargono Kharabakh, the current Russian occupation will lead to a fall out between the Kremlin and Baku. Turkey has a defense pact with Azerbaijan, so I can’t see Russia risking a war with Turkey over Nargono Kharabakh.
A Russian puppet in Belarus is having trouble maintaining its grip on power.
In Ukraine, the regime is more determined than ever to confront Russia.
Russia is also betting on El-Sisi of Egypt and MBZ of the U.A.E. knowing fully well that these guys are America’s puppets and loyalists.
Russia labelled the M.B Terrorists (something the U.S has refrained from doing. That shows how America policy makers are much smarter than their Russian counterparts even though America does the most damage). Muslims around the world increasingly view Russia as a greater threat or at least as great a threat to Islam as America.
So the Saker can write his lengthy bullshit, which i no longer even read. He delude himself until the facts become too apparent to deny that Russia is losing very fast.

Doom

1) Syria. Somebody released data by the Foreign Ministry on expenses that have been made on foreign policy goals for the last 20 years (since 2002?). IIRC, Russia has spent 5-10 billion in Syria in 5 years. That’s remarkably cost effective. I believe the data is accurate, their military profile in the country is low and they are super effective with their allocation of resources.
2) Libya. I can’t speak to the popularity of Haftar but the Muslim world is secularizing very quickly. We see it even in Saudi Arabia, but also in North African states. I expect that the continuation of secular culturally Muslim, but not very religiously Muslim dictators continues into the foreseeable future.
3) Nagorno-Karabakh. The Azeris got played. Russia now has thousands of soldiers in the region guarding an independent Republic ala S. Ossetia, Abkhazia etc. and there’s very little the Azeris will be willing to do about this as Armenia rearms with new Russian UCAVs. Turkey is a house of cards with an economy in tatters, overstretched military and a leader with approval rating of only 50% who’ll be kicked to the curb soon.
4) A majority of Ukrainians favor concessions to the Donbas for peace, something like 60%. COVID restrictions/lockdown, demographic exhaustion, economic stagnation and political paralysis will make the 2020s a lost decade for Ukraine, and the final fatal one IMO. Ukraine is not a viable state. Their reabsorption into Russia is almost certain. Same with Belarus. I welcome the future restored Kievan Rus.

My hope is that with a new Kievan Rus nation-state that will be 90% Slavic, Russia can then reorient themselves along a political paradigm of nationalist opposition to western universalism.

The Objective

A very impressive argument, but still short-sighted.
Your estimates about Russia’s military spending in Syria is correct. It averages at about $4 million a day. On the contrary, Russia’s rivals (U.S.A and Turkey) were smart enough to seize Syria’s oil wealth. These two countries hardly ever fights on the ground in Syria, and neither do they come under frequent attacks like Russian forces. Yet, America and Turkey benefit from Syria’s oil wealth. Whatever they spend on ISIS and other factions is replaced by the oil money. So, they never lose. Actually, they gain. Russia cannot afford to maintain this status quo for long.

You are mistaken to think the Muslim world is becoming secular. Do some basic research and you’ll find 99% of reports contradicting your claim. I’ll provide some examples for you: Turkey was secular, but not it’s ruled by Islamists. Its military has been purged by secularists who’ve always been the threat to Islamists.
Islamists won in Egypt. It took a western-backed coup to depose them. Islamists won in Tunisia and Libya’s last election. If you dispute this fact, I’ll provide proof from CISS and other Western Think Tanks. Islamists also won in Pakistan, Malaysia, and they are a lot stronger in Indonesia. Islamists also won in Nigeria and Algeria. All the countries I mentioned are highly supportive of the Muslim Brotherhood. Two decades ago, it wasn’t so. Internet, perceived oppression of Muslims, and the rise of global scholars is mostly responsible for this Islamic awakening.

Just as Armenia is rearming, so too is Azerbaijan, this time much more seriously than before. Russia wants strong economic ties with Azerbaijan. It wants to maintain a good relationship with the Azeris. But this war has now threatened such a relationship. On the contrary, Russia is not in good terms with the current regime in Armenia. (there are at least 2000 U.S military and civilian personnel in Armenia. So, you should know what that means for Russia).
What Turkey can and will do is arm Azerbaijan with the best A2AD weapons it can over the coming years. There’s no hurry. This will make Azerbaijan a far more potent adversary than Georgia ever was. Future tensions will force Russia to consider invading Azerbaijan (Should Azerbaijan try to reclaim its lands by all means necessary, which I’m damn sure it will). With Armenia in the Western sphere, I can’t see Russia risking an invasion of Azerbaijan, which has a defense treaty with Turkey. The best Russia can do is arm Nargono Kharabakh and Armenia to use them as proxies to deny Azerbaijan its objectives. But with Azerbaijan having a strong economy and foreign backer, any future is likely to result in a defeat of the Armenian side, especially if Turkey helps in the planning.

I’m not going to say much about Ukraine, but relations with Moscow won’t return to normal with the current regime in Kiev. You also underestimate America’s ability and willingness to proved a Russian/Ukrainian clash in the future, even as indicators show that Biden will arm Ukraine to the teeth before leaving office.

Russia is involved in many small wars around the world. But it’s losing most of them. It’s economy is saddled with sanctions, which will only increase as the U.S and Russia engage in more competition. An example is CAATSA, which has seriously affected the volume of Russian arm sales. For example, to get an idea of how troubled the Russian defense industry is, read this, and research further: https://www.realcleardefense.com/articles/2019/05/02/russias_defense_industry_finds_itself_in_a_tailspin_114387.html#:~:text=While%20Russia%20remains%20the%20world's,as%20much%20as%2017%20percent.
The bottomline is that Russia’s manufacturers will struggle to even maintain their current status on the global market, which will affect the economy.

Doom

1. Syria.
Your assertion was that Syria is a bottomless pit for Russia with no hope for victory. I think I’ve made a good case that Russia’s position in Syria is economical and sustainable long-term which coincides with their plan to maintain a permanent military presence in the country (which was the whole point of the intervention in Syria). I agree with you that the SDF will be a medium to long-term problem in evicting them from the country (if it’s even possible). As for terms of victory, Russia has done better than anyone could have hoped for and accomplished most strategic objectives. They secured the right bank of the Euphrates, stabilized Syria on multiple fronts, are slowly pushing the Turks out and are in the process of rebuilding the country.

2. Culture is a dynamic process where dominant ideas that peak, precipitate an energetic reaction that soon replaces it, which repeats the cycle. This cycle of tension coincides with more long-term trends. The rise of political Islam I believe is a phenomenon that was given life as a reaction to America’s general departure from the region, anger over the war on terrorism and the Arab Spring of early 2010s. This political, fundamentalist Islam will persist for a while, but the long-term trajectory is clear, increasing wealth and access to Western media/ideas in Muslim countries is leading to secularization among the youth.
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-48703377
Irreligiosity has doubled in only 5 years in places like Tunisia, Libya, Morocco and Egypt, to as high as over 30% in Tunisia. This phenomenon is happening in Iran as well.
https://ca.news.yahoo.com/irans-secular-shift-survey-reveals-111417092.html

Now most of these youths will still identify as culturally Muslim for fear of social shame, but fewer and fewer are practicing. We also see this represented in the relaxing of Islamic laws in Saudi Arabia and the UAE.
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/11/7/uae-announces-relaxing-of-islamic-laws-for-personal-freedoms
And furthermore, we see this in the declining fertility rates in all Muslim countries, especially in the Gulf countries, indicating a transition to more modern lifestyles.

It’s also interesting to note, if you scroll down the BBC article, that Putin is more popular than Erdogan in the Muslim countries we are directly discussing, like Libya, Egypt and Iraq (tied). So Putin and Russia by no means are the boogeyman on the “losing side” of history in the Muslim world.

I expect the continued rise of secular/cultural Islam as a political force to overcome or at least challenge political Islam in the 2020s and 2030s.

3. Nagorno-Karabakh
No doubt Azerbaijan is also rearming, but they will never possess the most critical advantage of surprise in technological superiority that they possessed last year. Russia is prioritizing UCAV development and will inevitably close the gap+innovate from lessons learned from the conflict. There are no US personnel in Armenia (that I know of?) and Armenia is not a West leaning state, Pashinyan is a very unpopular politician who will be booted shortly from power and Armenia will move to closer cooperation with Russia. His approval rating was 17% back in October.
https://news.am/eng/news/601374.html

Russia doesn’t need to posture aggressively whatsoever. They successfully tricked Azerbaijan into turning N-K into a Russian protectorate for all intents and purposes, guarded by 2000+ Russian soldiers. Azerbaijan would be crazy to militarily confront Russia. Russia is playing the long-game because it knows it can outlast Turkey and Azerbaijan. Azerbaijan is a gas station, even more dependent on oil and gas for its economy than Russia (95% of exports, 75% of revenue) and it’s rearmament was only made possible due to high gas prices pre-2015 that no longer exist. Low oil prices will harm Azerbaijan and allow Armenia to catch up. Turkey, is a house of cards, that shares all the weaknesses you listed for Russia, overstretched militarily, made too many enemies (especially neighboring states), stagnant economy in addition to have a more volatile internal political situation and Erdogan being much less popular than Putin/Russia.

We’ll see what America does in Ukraine, but one trend that isn’t changing is opposition to the war and increasing calls for peace, even among the oligarchs like Kolomoisky who was formerly in support of the war. We also see the rise in the popularity of the pro-Russian opposition, now the most popular party in Ukraine if elections were held today (23%).
https://nationalinterest.org/feature/joe-biden-and-challenge-ukraine-176086
My feeling is that the 2020s will be a difficult decade for Russia mostly on account of the continued demographic troubles and economic warfare by the West; a likely crisis in Ukraine will force Russia to make a big move to settle this once and for all. Ditto for Belarus.

Russian military exports are doing just fine.
https://www.upi.com/Defense-News/2019/11/18/Exporter-Russian-foreign-military-sales-on-pace-to-hit-137B-despite-US-sanctions/2201574103342/
The drop in exports to China since the mid 2000s has been balanced out by renewed interest from several Muslim states like Iraq, Egypt, Turkey and some Gulf states. While China may be able to compete with Russian exports, none of their weapons are battle tested.

Doom

So I wrote an extensive response to this last night, saw it get published and logged in today to see if you had responded only to find that somehow, it did not publish. A damned shame.

1) Syria.
Your assertion was that Syria is a bottomless pit for Russia with no sight of victory. I think I made a good case that Russia’s position in Syria is economical, sustainable, extremely effective and intended (from the beginning) to be a long-term strategic presence (Khmeimim and Tartus). As for victory, Russia has accomplished almost all its strategic objectives since 2015, closing several fronts, defeating ISIS, testing new weapons, re-asserting itself in the region (prestige), slowly pushing the Turks out of Idlib and rebuilding the country. We agree that the presence of the SDF will be a long-term problem that will remain to be resolved, but its weakness lies in the fact that all its neighbors are opposed to its existence and so is in a very precarious position.

2) Political culture is a dynamic force that moves in waves, in which an ascendant idea peaks in prominence but enters a period of stagnation while giving rise to an energetic reaction that then replaces that now stagnant power, which repeats the cycle. This is confounded with more long-term developments. I view the rise of political Islam in the 2010s as a wave of suppressed political sentiment, a reaction to a few things: the US reducing its footprint in the region, anger over the war on terrorism, and the Arab Spring (economic issues and the delegitimization of long overdue regimes). I believe its ascendancy to be temporary (peaking now) because there is no question that the latest data shows an increasing secularization of Muslim youth via increasing wealth and exposure to Western ideas/media. This will inevitably create pressure for political reforms against political Islam.
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-48703377

As you can see, in only 5 years, irreligiosity has doubled in several Muslim countries, many of them the subject of our conversation, like Tunisia, Libya, Egypt, Morocco and Algeria, reaching a high of over 30% in Tunisia. Iran is also witnessing a similar phenomenon.
https://ca.news.yahoo.com/irans-secular-shift-survey-reveals-111417092.html

These Muslim youths might still identity as Muslims in most other surveys, but only in the cultural sense out of social duty and fear of shaming. Islam will gradually decline in influencing their politics. We already see this reflected in the very recent reforms of several strict sharia laws in the UAE and Saudi Arabia with ministers voicing the need for reforming to meet the needs of the modern world.
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/11/7/uae-announces-relaxing-of-islamic-laws-for-personal-freedoms

At the more base level, we see this change also reflected in the declining fertility rates across the entire Muslim world presaging a decline in traditional values.

Lastly, if you scroll to the bottom of the BBC article, you will see that Putin is more popular than Erdogan in several Muslim countries, including those that are the subject of this conversation: Libya, Egypt and tied in Iraq. Russia is by no means the boogeyman on the “losing side of history” in their relations with Muslim states.

3) Nagorno-Karabakh
While Azerbaijan is indeed rearming, it will never possess the greatest advantage it had in the last war, the surprise of technological superiority. That’s gone and Armenia will gradually close the gap. Russia is expediting its development of UCAVs and tactics to counter UCAVs in response. Russia has also established a firm position in the S. Caucausus with 2,000+ troops. Azerbaijan would be crazy to militarily confront that. Nor is Armenia shifting to the Western sphere, Pashinyan is incredibly unpopular (17% approval last October) and will be booted soon by the nationalist clan in Armenia favoring closer ties with Russia.
https://news.am/eng/news/601374.html

Azerbaijan got played. Armenia lost an unrecognized Republic that was a political headache which is now under Russian control. It was a diplomatic win for Russia. Russia knows this and does not need to assume the aggressive posture you for some reason imagine. Russia will outlast both Azerbaijan and Turkey. Azerbaijan is a gas station even more than Russia is, 90% of exports and 75% of revenue is oil and gas, which funded its rearmament but that money is no longer coming in. As for Turkey, Turkey shares all the same weaknesses you see in Russia but with a few extra ones: Western sanctions, distressed economy, overstretched military, hostile neighbors but also Erdogan is far less popular than Putin and the internal political (and social with the PKK) situation in Turkey is much more volatile. In all the ways that you assume Russia to be weak, Turkey is weaker, and Russia knows this.

We’ll see what plans the US has for Ukraine, but the trends are unquestionable. Support for resolving the conflict peacefully is increasing, even among former oligarchic warmongers like Kolomoisky who now favors rapprochement with Russia. Furthermore, the political landscape is changing (remember the waves analogy from earlier?) with the pro-Russian opposition now the single most popular party in Ukraine if elections were held today (23%).
https://nationalinterest.org/feature/joe-biden-and-challenge-ukraine-176086

I think Ukraine is heading to a decisive finale in the next 5 to 10 years. It’s a basket case on the brink of a catastrophic social, political and economic crisis.

Russian arms exporters seem to be doing just fine. Whatever losses they’ve had in the Chinese market have been balanced with renewed interest from Muslim buyers like the gulf states, Iraq, Turkey, and Egypt etc.
https://www.upi.com/Defense-News/2019/11/18/Exporter-Russian-foreign-military-sales-on-pace-to-hit-137B-despite-US-sanctions/2201574103342/

Doom

So I wrote an extensive response to this last night, saw it get published and logged in today to see if you had responded only to find that somehow, it did not publish. A damned shame.

1) Syria.
Your assertion was that Syria is a bottomless pit for Russia with no sight of victory. I think I made a good case that Russia’s position in Syria is economical, sustainable, extremely effective and intended (from the beginning) to be a long-term strategic presence (Khmeimim and Tartus). As for victory, Russia has accomplished almost all its strategic objectives since 2015, closing several fronts, defeating ISIS, testing new weapons, re-asserting itself in the region (prestige), slowly pushing the Turks out of Idlib and rebuilding the country. We agree that the presence of the SDF will be a long-term problem that will remain to be resolved, but its weakness lies in the fact that all its neighbors are opposed to its existence and so is in a very precarious position.

2) Political culture is a dynamic force that moves in waves, in which an ascendant idea peaks in prominence but enters a period of stagnation while giving rise to an energetic reaction that then replaces that now stagnant power, which repeats the cycle. This is confounded with more long-term developments. I view the rise of political Islam in the 2010s as a wave of suppressed political sentiment, a reaction to a few things: the US reducing its footprint in the region, anger over the war on terrorism, and the Arab Spring (economic issues and the delegitimization of long overdue regimes). I believe its ascendancy to be temporary (peaking now) because there is no question that the latest data shows an increasing secularization of Muslim youth via increasing wealth and exposure to Western ideas/media. This will inevitably create pressure for political reforms against political Islam.
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-48703377

As you can see, in only 5 years, irreligiosity has doubled in several Muslim countries, many of them the subject of our conversation, like Tunisia, Libya, Egypt, Morocco and Algeria, reaching a high of over 30% in Tunisia. Iran is also witnessing a similar phenomenon.
https://ca.news.yahoo.com/irans-secular-shift-survey-reveals-111417092.html

These Muslim youths might still identity as Muslims in most other surveys, but only in the cultural sense out of social duty and fear of shaming. Islam will gradually decline in influencing their politics. We already see this reflected in the very recent reforms of several strict sharia laws in the UAE and Saudi Arabia with ministers voicing the need for reforming to meet the needs of the modern world.
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/11/7/uae-announces-relaxing-of-islamic-laws-for-personal-freedoms

At the more base level, we see this change also reflected in the declining fertility rates across the entire Muslim world presaging a decline in traditional values.

Lastly, if you scroll to the bottom of the BBC article, you will see that Putin is more popular than Erdogan in several Muslim countries, including those that are the subject of this conversation: Libya, Egypt and tied in Iraq. Russia is by no means the boogeyman on the “losing side of history” in their relations with Muslim states.

Doom

I’m sorry, ignore this post and read the one below because this one is incomplete. I thought to split my post in two in case there was another glitch.

Doom

I’m breaking this down into separate replies because it keeps identifying everything as spam for some reason.
1) Syria.
Your assertion was that Syria is a bottomless pit for Russia with no sight of victory. I think I made a good case that Russia’s position in Syria is economical, sustainable, extremely effective and intended (from the beginning) to be a long-term strategic presence (Khmeimim and Tartus). As for victory, Russia has accomplished almost all its strategic objectives since 2015, closing several fronts, defeating ISIS, testing new weapons, re-asserting itself in the region (prestige), slowly pushing the Turks out of Idlib and rebuilding the country. We agree that the presence of the SDF will be a long-term problem that will remain to be resolved, but its weakness lies in the fact that all its neighbors are opposed to its existence and so is in a very precarious position.

Doom

2) Political culture is a dynamic force that moves in waves, in which an ascendant idea peaks in prominence but enters a period of stagnation while giving rise to an energetic reaction that then replaces that now stagnant power, which repeats the cycle. This is confounded with more long-term developments. I view the rise of political Islam in the 2010s as a wave of suppressed political sentiment, a reaction to a few things: the US reducing its footprint in the region, anger over the war on terrorism, and the Arab Spring (economic issues and the delegitimization of long overdue regimes). I believe its ascendancy to be temporary (peaking now) because there is no question that the latest data shows an increasing secularization of Muslim youth via increasing wealth and exposure to Western ideas/media. This will inevitably create pressure for political reforms against political Islam.
https://www.bbc.com/news/wo

As you can see, in only 5 years, irreligiosity has doubled in several Muslim countries, many of them the subject of our conversation, like Tunisia, Libya, Egypt, Morocco and Algeria, reaching a high of over 30% in Tunisia. Iran is also witnessing a similar phenomenon.
https://ca.news.yahoo.com/i

These Muslim youths might still identity as Muslims in most other surveys, but only in the cultural sense out of social duty and fear of shaming. Islam will gradually decline in influencing their politics. We already see this reflected in the very recent reforms of several strict sharia laws in the UAE and Saudi Arabia with ministers voicing the need for reforming to meet the needs of the modern world.
https://www.aljazeera.com/n

At the more base level, we see this change also reflected in the declining fertility rates across the entire Muslim world presaging a decline in traditional values.

Lastly, if you scroll to the bottom of the BBC article, you will see that Putin is more popular than Erdogan in several Muslim countries, including those that are the subject of this conversation: Libya, Egypt and tied in Iraq. Russia is by no means the boogeyman on the “losing side of history” in their relations with Muslim states.

The Objective

This answers two of your replies. I’ll write an appropriate reply to the last comment. I agree with some things you said, but you got other facts wrong.

The combined population of all the Muslim Arab countries in that statistics add up to 332 million people, out of 1.8 billion Muslims globally. What most people don’t get is that Arabs do NOT represent Islam. For example, I’m not an Arab, but I’m highly pro-Islamic.

The second thing is, that finding does not mention the most important thing that is fueling the rise of Islamists. For example, it doesn’t account for their perception of Shariah as a constitution, or their perception of the Global War on Terror. Again, if the U.S is pretty confident about the non-religious inclination of Arabs, why does it fear democracy in the Middle East?

Another thing is, the survey never mentioned countries like Turkey, Pakistan, Malaysia, and Indonesia, who are the backbone of Islam today, in terms of military and economic strength. Not even a coup succeeded in deposing the Islamists of Turkey.

The U.A.E and Saudi Arabia are illegitimate regimes that do not speak for their people. You’ll read several reports that the rulers of these countries oppress their people greatly to maintain power. If you doubt this, I’ll suggest you research Trump’s claim that the Saudi Monarchy would not last 2 weeks without U.S backing. These are not democracies. They fear democracy like death. Because they know what it means for the hypocrites. That applies to ALL the countries listed in that report except for Lebanon (it’s mixed), and Iraq (sectarian strive).

Putin might be popular with pro-Sisi Egyptians (who are actually a minority, including Coptic Christians). But the ultimate proof will be for Sisi to allow democracy in Egypt. Then we’ll see who wins (I mean free and fair elections without oppression).

Islamic prophecies say the Arab region will be reconquered by other non Arab Muslims (who’ll restore the dignity of Islam). The current determination of Turkish, Pakistani, Malaysian, and Indonesian leaders is moving towards this dynamic. A future coalition of Muslim countries will invade these Arab countries one after the other and depose the regimes.

The OIC is divided now. ONLY a few Arab states support Saudi Arabia. When Saudi Arabia requested the assistance of more than 30 Muslim countries in its war with the Shiites of Yemen, only the U.A.E is still helping Saudi Arabia. ALL other Muslim countries withdrew or refused to participate. This would not have been the case in the 1950s to 1990s.

America’s invasion of Iraq and Afghanistan has permanently altered the threat perception of the Islamic world. that gave rise to policies pursued by the likes of Erdogan, Qatar, Pakistan, Malaysia, Indonesia, etc. It also gave rise to the so-called Arab spring that saw about six Western-backed dictators deposed. Only Egypt managed to reimpose its dictatorship, but temporarily. Sisi lives in more fear than Mubarak. When he gave a speech to Egyptian military graduates recently, he had to speak from inside a bulletproof glass.

Finally, you read that statistics wrongly. In Tunisia, for example, the change is 10% not 30%. You shouldn’t read from zero.Don’t forget, the combined Arab countries account for ONLY 17% of the Muslim population. And even though the Arab rulers try their best to depict Turkey as an imperial country trying to dominate the Arabs again, Erdogan is by far more popular than any Arab, Western, or Russian leader – at 51%.

Erdogan is a die-hard Islamists who does not fear to publicly profess his Islamic inclinations. I think this should tell you who these Arab Muslims prefer between Islamists and secularists. Erdogan wasn’t a very popular figure in the past decade. His increasing popularity in the Arab world is testament to the dominant mood of the Arab Muslims. And it also explains the hatred directed at him by Christian presidents, dictators, and monarchies in the Arab Muslim world.

Doom

While the survey may be limited to selected states, the positive correlation and trend of secularization increasing with wealth and exposure to Western culture is unambiguous. We are only seeing the first seedlings of this social change (started post-Arab Spring) that will rise to give fruit in the 2020s and beyond. Right now, political Islam is ascendant, which is why they would win most elections, but I strongly feel that will change as we head into the late 2020s and 2030s, especially with undoubted Western and Israeli intervention favoring secular Islam.

The West is seeing a similar social process. The radical left and their globalist class is ascendant currently, but its intolerance (similar to political Islam) of opposition and the gradual shift of the culture leftwards has led to a reaction in the form of a renewed nationalism that is growing in power. The oppositional nature of these two counter-ideologies (political Islam vs secular Islam, globalist left vs nationalist) will lead to a radicalization of both sides and empty out the moderate center leading to future social turbulence.

I say all this to explain that as secularization continues and as secular Islam grows within Muslim countries (actively pushed by the West), this will fuel the continued rise of political Islam as well, so it’s not disappearing anytime soon, if that’s what you think I’m arguing.

** Tunisia: I’m not counting from 0. The irreligious percentage for 2013 looks about 15-16%, for 2018/19 looks about 32-33%. That’s double, in only 5 years.

The Objective

Islamists won in the same Tunisia you keep mentioning. Even if we witness a rise in the number of secular (hypocrite) Muslims, it’ll be nowhere near the Islamic awakening sweeping non-Arab countries. In my country for example, Muslim youths are becoming more religious overnight. More people attend mosque now than when I was younger. More preachers, religious schools, and mosques everywhere. This trend is similar across ALL Muslim countries.

Russia and the West are also seeing increasingly religious Muslim population, which prompted Trump’s Muslim ban. He thought Muslim immigrants were the ones converting Americans, not knowing that the American Muslims are doing it themselves. There are a lot more American-born Muslim scholars than at anytime pre-9/11. In Russia, the Muslim population is also growing, even as the Christian population declines. The Russian Church authority recently warned that Russian Christians (special forces and athletes) are increasingly turning to paganism.
I won’t post links here, because I already did my research last year. You do yours.

Doom

I can’t tell if you’re even bothering to read my posts, or just responding reflexively with very basic points, so I’m just going to repeat what I wrote because it addresses almost everything you wrote:
“We are only seeing the first seedlings of this social change (started post-Arab Spring) that will rise to give fruit in the 2020s and beyond. Right now, political Islam is ascendant, which is why they would win most elections, but I strongly feel that will change as we head into the late 2020s and 2030s, especially with undoubted Western and Israeli intervention favoring secular Islam.”

“The oppositional nature of these two counter-ideologies (political Islam vs secular Islam, globalist left vs nationalist) will lead to a radicalization of both sides and empty out the moderate center leading to future social turbulence.”

And my conclusion:
“I say all this to explain that as secularization continues and as secular Islam grows within Muslim countries (actively pushed by the West), this will fuel the continued rise of political Islam as well, so it’s not disappearing anytime soon, if that’s what you think I’m arguing.”

What you’re seeing anecdotally is a well known phenomenon where some second and third generation immigrants (or children of irreligious parents) feel the need to re-identify with their ancestral heritage as a pushback against assimilationist pressures. While this is a major phenomenon, it’s a mistake to think this is community-wide because there’s also movement in the exact opposite direction that I’ve personally also seen, where Muslim youths are Muslim in name only (like modern day Christians) and drop all other serious pretenses to practicing their faith. They screw around, drink alcohol, eat pork, use drugs, gangster behavior, the whole nine yards. And I would say without question this is the majority phenomenon among Muslim youth that I see today.

This is why I raised the issue of Western globalism vs nationalism because the exact same dynamic is happening there. A small, but energetic portion of Western youth are re-exploring their ancestral heritage while the majority become braindead consumers.

Russia becoming a Muslim country is fake news, a western meme, nothing more. The Muslim community in Russia is growing very slowly (if at all) contrary to online sensationalist reports. All Muslim communities in Russia have sub-replacement fertility rates except for Ingush and Chechens and several of the largest Muslim ethnicities like Tatars, Bashkirs, Chuvash etc. are also declining in population.

Yes, Rodnovery is growing in Russia. Like I said earlier, people are re-analyzing and exploring their roots.

Doom

Disqus is a terrible, terrible platform. It seems every response I make longer than 4 or 5 paragraphs is censored as spam, so I’m going to break my post down into two replies. I responded a few days ago, but it was rejected as spam. Here’s the response:

Part 1

I can’t tell if you’re even bothering to read my posts, or just responding reflexively with very basic points, so I’m just going to repeat what I wrote because it addresses almost everything you wrote:
“We are only seeing the first seedlings of this social change (started post-Arab Spring) that will rise to give fruit in the 2020s and beyond. Right now, political Islam is ascendant, which is why they would win most elections, but I strongly feel that will change as we head into the late 2020s and 2030s, especially with undoubted Western and Israeli intervention favoring secular Islam.”

“The oppositional nature of these two counter-ideologies (political Islam vs secular Islam, globalist left vs nationalist) will lead to a radicalization of both sides and empty out the moderate center leading to future social turbulence.”

And my conclusion:
“I say all this to explain that as secularization continues and as secular Islam grows within Muslim countries (actively pushed by the West), this will fuel the continued rise of political Islam as well, so it’s not disappearing anytime soon, if that’s what you think I’m arguing.”

Doom

Part 2

What you’re seeing anecdotally is a well known phenomenon where some second and third generation immigrants (or children of irreligious parents) feel the need to re-identify with their ancestral heritage as a pushback against assimilationist pressures. While this is a major phenomenon, it’s a mistake to think this is community-wide because there’s also movement in the exact opposite direction that I’ve personally also seen, where Muslim youths are Muslim in name only (like modern day Christians) and drop all other serious pretenses to practicing their faith. They screw around, drink alcohol, eat pork, use drugs, gangster behavior, the whole nine yards. And I would say without question this is the majority phenomenon among Muslim youth that I see today.

This is why I raised the issue of Western globalism vs nationalism because the exact same dynamic is happening there. A small, but energetic portion of Western youth are re-exploring their ancestral heritage while the majority become braindead consumers.

Russia becoming a Muslim country is fake news, a western meme, nothing more. The Muslim community in Russia is growing very slowly (if at all) contrary to online sensationalist reports. All Muslim communities in Russia have sub-replacement fertility rates except for Ingush and Chechens and several of the largest Muslim ethnicities like Tatars, Bashkirs, Chuvash etc. are also declining in population.

Yes, Rodnovery is growing in Russia. Like I said earlier, people are re-analyzing and exploring their roots.

Doom

3) Nagorno-Karabakh
While Azerbaijan is indeed rearming, it will never possess the greatest advantage it had in the last war, the surprise of technological superiority. That’s gone and Armenia will gradually close the gap. Russia is expediting its development of UCAVs and tactics to counter UCAVs in response. Russia has also established a firm position in the S. Caucausus with 2,000+ troops. Azerbaijan would be crazy to militarily confront that. Nor is Armenia shifting to the Western sphere, Pashinyan is incredibly unpopular (17% approval last October) and will be booted soon by the nationalist clan in Armenia favoring closer ties with Russia.
https://news.am/eng/news/601374.html

Azerbaijan got played. Armenia lost an unrecognized Republic that was a political headache which is now under Russian control. It was a diplomatic win for Russia. Russia knows this and does not need to assume the aggressive posture you for some reason imagine. Russia will outlast both Azerbaijan and Turkey. Azerbaijan is a gas station even more than Russia is, 90% of exports and 75% of revenue is oil and gas, which funded its rearmament but that money is no longer coming in. As for Turkey, Turkey shares all the same weaknesses you see in Russia but with a few extra ones: Western sanctions, distressed economy, overstretched military, hostile neighbors but also Erdogan is far less popular than Putin and the internal political (and social with the PKK) situation in Turkey is much more volatile. In all the ways that you assume Russia to be weak, Turkey is weaker, and Russia knows this.

We’ll see what plans the US has for Ukraine, but the trends are unquestionable. Support for resolving the conflict peacefully is increasing, even among former oligarchic warmongers like Kolomoisky who now favors rapprochement with Russia. Furthermore, the political landscape is changing (remember the waves analogy from earlier?) with the pro-Russian opposition now the single most popular party in Ukraine if elections were held today (23%).
https://nationalinterest.org/feature/joe-biden-and-challenge-ukraine-176086

I think Ukraine is heading to a decisive finale in the next 5 to 10 years. It’s a basket case on the brink of a catastrophic social, political and economic crisis.

Russian arms exporters seem to be doing just fine. Whatever losses they’ve had in the Chinese market have been balanced with renewed interest from Muslim buyers like the gulf states, Iraq, Turkey, and Egypt etc.
https://www.upi.com/Defense-News/2019/11/18/Exporter-Russian-foreign-military-sales-on-pace-to-hit-137B-despite-US-sanctions/2201574103342/

I also realized that the copy and pasted links from the previous posts didn’t work, so here they are in full:
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-48703377
https://ca.news.yahoo.com/irans-secular-shift-survey-reveals-111417092.html
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/11/7/uae-announces-relaxing-of-islamic-laws-for-personal-freedoms

The Objective

Armenia will try to close the tech gap between it and Azerbaijan with the help of Russia. Whether or not that succeeds remains to be seen. But don’t forget that technology is not the sole or even dominant determinant of victory. The human soldiers also matters a lot. Russia is also behind Turkey in drone technology. And with Turkey introducing far more complex drones and innovative warfare tactics (like swarm attacks), Armenia may still find itself ill-prepared for a future war with Azerbaijan.

Azerbaijan never got played at all. This is a claim that some Russian’s often make. If Russia wanted to occupy Nargono-Kharabakh, it could do that with or without a war. So, why allow Nargono-Kharabakh to lose territory before coming in? It doesn’t matter whether Russia came in before or after the war. Azerbaijan will still view the Russians as an occupying force.

Like I’ve said before, Azerbaijan has time on its side. Turkey will arm Azerbaijan with the believe that one day, Russia will attempt to invade the country. Turkey’s missile program is highly advanced, though very secretive. I expect Azerbaijan to be armed to the teeth with Turkish missiles and AA systems that should create a formidable A2AD network against Russia. 10 years from now, it’d be a nightmare for Russia to even contemplate an invasion of Azerbaijan. And Russia’s presence in Nargono-Kharabakh does not mean there will never be war again between Azerbaijan and Armenia over N.K.

Lastly, if you think that Armenia will return to Russia’s sphere of influence, you must be kidding. There a 2000+ U.S military and civilian personnel in a country as small as Armenia. Good luck to Russia driving those U.S forces out.

I don’t know much about what’s going on in Ukraine.

Doom

The reason why Russia didn’t intervene right away was:
1) not to be seen as a belligerent foreign state by the West escalating the conflict (as the West claimed when Russia entered Syria), avoiding further sanctions
2) most importantly, they had to wait so that the blame for Armenia’s defeat could be placed on Pashinyan, an anti-Russian puppet of the West.

It’s a little funny that we both think time is on the side that we support, I suppose only the future will tell us who is right. I’m confident that Russia will make great leaps in UCAV and anti-UCAV technology and tactics in the next 5 years.

We won’t even have to wait the 10 years for another war, the peacekeeping force expires in 5 years unless both sides agree to continue.

What’s your source for American servicemen in Armenia? There are no US servicemen in Armenia.

The Objective

Your firs point is laughable, sorry. Does entering Armenia at a later date make Russia look peaceful? The reason Russia didn’t intervene early was because it wanted to see how the war plays out. It secretly supplied anti-drone warfare equipment to Armenia. It also didn’t want to appear on the support of Armenia in order not to jeopardize its relations with Baku. Don’t forget that Russia would be wrong by international law to support Armenia. Russia could also have offered to settle peace earlier rather than wait.

If Russia wanted a defeat of Armenia to remove Pashinyan, then it obviously failed. The U.S is on the ground in Armenia.

“In contrast, Armenia has an absolutely huge US embassy with about 2000 personnel (as much as the entire Russian peacekeeping force!) and when the Azeris attacked, Pashinin refused to ask Russia for help for a full month”
https://thesaker.is/understanding-the-outcome-of-the-war-for-nagorno-karabakh/

Finally, Russia can create some impressive drones, but that remains to be seen.

Doom

Yes in-fact, intervening as an accepted third party by BOTH sides and bringing about a peaceful resolution to the conflict is neither belligerent nor laughable.

Even your own source (Saker) says Pashinyan refused Russian mediation for the first month of the conflict. Furthermore, negotiations are difficult to pull off anyways in the early stages of any deep-seated conflict because the outcome is not yet clear. Once the bodies start stacking though, you’re far more likely to achieve peace as pressure mounts. So in conclusion, there are several factors to why Russian mediated peace came later in the conflict.

Russia faced a temporary setback with Pashinyan in 2018, but as I said, he is deeply unpopular and will not last long.

Your last argument is a disingenuous comparison between embassy staff and actual military personnel. Motorized Rifle Brigade >MPs, intelligence assets, diplomats and their secretaries. Not to mention Russia operates extensive assets within Armenia as well. The Russian footprint is much more significant.

The Objective

Why then did Russia refuse a joint patrol with Turkey, as requested by Azerbaijan? I mean on-the-ground monitoring, not the so-called joint monitoring center.
2000 America personnel, whether military or not, is a significant intelligence footprint. Few countries in the world has such number of Americans, especially not a small and sparsely populated country as Armenia. Besides, this is not a soldier’s war. So, the U.S will not deploy any significant forces.

Whichever way you cut this, Russia is an occupier of N-K or Azerbaijan’s legal landmass. N-K is a protectorate of Russia now. This is clear to most people. But it’s not time to deal with the issue yet. Azerbaijan needs to arm-up with all the A2AD weaponry, especially missiles, ATGMs, and anti-aircraft systems Turkey can provide, before igniting the next war to reclaim its legal rights.

There are currently more than 10 fast-paced ongoing weapons development programs of Turkey. The main ones being missiles (long range precision), explosives, and AA systems. These programs should all mature within a decade.

Russia won’t give it back willingly. A powerful Azerbaijan would deter any Russian invasion in the event of a second war with Armenia. Over the odds, Turkey-Azerbaijan defense treaty will further deter a Russian invasion.

So, I think Azerbaijan has time on its side. This is time to re-arm and plan together with Turkey, taking a possible Russian invasion into account. I believe Erdogan will plan this well, with Allah’s help. At the right time, Russia can either watch a ceasefire crumble and Armenia loss, or Russia will be forced to officially declear its occupation of Azerbaijan.

Doom

Russia doesn’t trust Turkey and rightly so.

Agreed, N-K is a Russian protectorate and will likely expand to include all of Armenia.

It doesn’t matter how you stretch the numbers, America’s position in Armenia is tenuous at best and if present trends continue, Pashinyan, their pawn will be gone. Russia has troops and political allies in Armenia to exploit this inevitability, Pashinyan is isolated and hated, and the West has been exposed for their total weakness of action.

RichardD
RichardD
RichardD

It wouldn’t surprise me if Vox is a dissident Jew who knows the inside scoop and is telling it like it is.

RichardD

Another great article by The Saker. Right on target. The US needs to get out of Iraq and Syria. And a regional coalition put together to clear the IDF out of the occupied territories. And assist with implementing UN Resolutions to replace Israel with a unified dejudified Palestine.

RichardD
Aldino

I fully agree. It is time for Russia to show firmness and resolve in the face of provocation. And make it absolutely clear: no new ex-Soviet republic will join NATO! Accelerate the integration of the former Soviet republics in the CIS, CSTO and EEU with a view to forming a robust regional common market. Integrate eastern Ukraine into Russia. And never allow any aggression or provocation against Crimea and Donbass

Raptar Driver

This Is the Saker at his best. I
Can’t poke any holes into this. Good job!

adam77

Big mistake was one word, he said give tech defenses to Iran when he should have said sell, at full price, to win on the economic front.

adam77

Russia has abortion rights, but too many of her allies don’t (Iran, Syria, Venezuela, Lugansk?). She needs to prioritize allies with abortion rights like North Korea, China and Cuba. Selling high tech defenses to the first group at full price would be profitable for Russia and help the economic front, but giving them away merely defends oppression.

63
0
Would love your thoughts, please comment.x
()
x