Why the Recent Developments in Syria Show that the Obama Administration Is in a State of Confused Agony

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Why the Recent Developments in Syria Show that the Obama Administration Is in a State of Confused Agony

Written by TheSaker; Originally appeared at his blog

The latest developments in Syria are not, I believe, the result of some deliberate plan of the USA to help their “moderate terrorist” allies on the ground, but they are the symptom of something even worse: the complete loss of control of the USA over the situation in Syria and, possibly, elsewhere.  Let me just re-state what just happened:

First, after days and days of intensive negotiations, Secretary Kerry and Foreign Minister Lavrov finally reached a deal on a cease-fire in Syria which had the potential to at least “freeze” the situation on the ground until the Presidential election in the USA and a change in administration (this is now the single most important event in the near future, therefore no plans of any kind can extend beyond that date).

Then the USAF, along with a few others, bombed a Syrian Army unit which was not on the move or engaged in intense operations, but which was simply holding a key sector of the front.  The US strike was followed by a massive offensive of the “moderate terrorists” which was barely contained by the Syrian military and the Russian Aerospace forces.  Needless to say, following such a brazen provocation the cease-fire was dead.  The Russians expressed their total disgust and outrage at this attacked and openly began saying that the Americans were “недоговороспособны”.  What that word means is literally “not-agreement-capable” or unable to make and then abide by an agreement.  While polite, this expression is also extremely strong as it implies not so much a deliberate deception as the lack of the very ability to make a deal and abide by it.  For example, the Russians have often said that the Kiev regime is “not-agreement-capable”, and that makes sense considering that the Nazi occupied Ukraine is essentially a failed state.  But to say that a nuclear world superpower is “not-agreement-capable” is a terrible and extreme diagnostic.  It basically means that the Americans have gone crazy and lost the very ability to make any kind of deal.  Again, a government which breaks its promises or tries to deceive but who, at least in theory, remains capable of sticking to an agreement would not be described as “not-agreement-capable”.  That expression is only used to describe an entity which does not even have the skillsetneeded to negotiate and stick to an agreement in its political toolkit.  This is an absolutely devastating diagnostic.

Next came the pathetic and absolutely unprofessional scene of US Ambassador Samantha Powers simply walking out of a UNSC meeting when the Russian representative was speaking.  Again, the Russians were simply blown away, not by the infantile attempt at offending, but at the total lack of diplomatic professionalism shown the Powers.  From a Russian point of view, for one superpower to simply walk out at the very moment the other superpower is making a crucial statement is simply irresponsible and, again, the sign that their American counterparts have totally “lost it”.

Finally, there came the crowning moment: the attack of the humanitarian convey in Syria which the USA blamed, of course, on Russia.  The Russians, again, could barely believe their own eyes.  First, this was such a blatant and, frankly, Kindergarten-level attempt to show that “the Russians make mistakes too” and that “the Russians killed the cease-fire”.  Second, there was this amazing statement of the Americans who said there are only two air forces which could have done that – either the Russians or the Syrians (how the Americans hoped to get away with this in an airspace thoroughly controlled by Russian radars is beyond me!).  Somehow, the Americans “forgot” to mention that their own air force was also present in the region, along with the air forces of many US allies.  Most importantly, they forgot to mention that that night armed US Predator drones were flying right over that convoy.

What happened in Syria is painfully obvious: the Pentagon sabotaged the deal made between Kerry and Lavrov and when the Pentagon was accused of being responsible, it mounted a rather crude false flag attack and tried to blame it on the Russians.

All this simply goes to show that the Obama Administration is in a state of confused agony.  The White House apparently is so freaked out at the prospects of a Trump victory in November that it has basically lost control of its foreign policy in general and, especially, in Syria.  The Russians are quite literally right: the Obama Administration is truly “not-agreement-capable”.

Of course, the fact that the Americans are acting like clueless frustrated children does not mean that Russia will reciprocate in kind.  We have already seen Lavrov go back and further negotiate with Kerry.  Not because the Russians are naive, but precisely because, unlike their US colleagues, the Russians are professionals who know that negotiations and open lines of communications are always, and by definition, preferable to a walk-away, especially when dealing with a superpower.  Those observers who criticize Russia for being “weak” or “naive” simply project their own, mostly American, “reaction set” on the Russians and fail to realize the simply truth that Russians are not Americans, they think differently and they act differently.  For one thing, the Russians don’t care if they are perceived as “weak” or “naive”.  In fact, they would prefer to be perceived as such if that furthers their goals and confuses the opponent about their real intentions and capabilities.  The Russians know that they did not build the biggest country on the planet by being “weak” or “naive” and they won’t be take lessons from a country which is younger that many Russian buildings.  The western paradigm is usually like this: a crises leads to a breakdown in negotiations and conflict follows.  The Russian paradigm is completely different: a crisis leads to negotiations which are conducted up the the last second before a conflict erupts.  There are two reasons for that: first, continuing to negotiate up to the last second makes it possible to seek a way out of the confrontation up to the last second and, second, negotiations up to the last second make it possible to come as close as possible to achieving strategic surprise for an attack.  This is exactly how Russia acted in Crimea and in Syria – with absolutely no warning signs or, even less so, a well-publicized display of power to attempt to intimidate somebody (intimidation is also a western political strategy the Russians don’t use).

So Lavrov will continue to negotiate, no matter how ridiculous and useless such negotiations will appear.  And Lavrov himself will probably never officially utter the word “недоговороспособны”, but the message to the Russian people and to the Syrian, Iranian and Chinese allies of Russia will be that at this point Russia has lost any hope of dealing with the current US Administration.

Obama and Co. now have their hands full with trying to hide Hillary’s health and character problems and right now they probably can think of only one thing: how to survive the upcoming Hillary-Trump debate.  The Pentagon and the Department of State are mostly busy fighting each other over Syria, Turkey, the Kurds and Russia.  The CIA seems to be fighting itself, though this is hard to ascertain.

It is likely that some kind of deal with still be announced by Kerry and Lavrov, if not today, then tomorrow or the day after.  But, frankly, I completely agree with the Russians: the American are truly “not-agreement-capable” and at this point in time, both the conflict in Syria and the one in the Ukraine are frozen.  I don’t mean “frozen” in the sense of “no fighting”, not at all, but I do mean “frozen” in the same of “no major developments possible”.  There will still be combats, especially now that the Wahabi and Nazi allies of the USA feel that their boss is not in charge because he is busy with elections and race riots, but since there is no quick military solution possible in either one of these wars, the tactical clashes and offensives will not yield any strategic result.

Barring an election-canceling false flag inside the USA, like the murder of either Hillary or Trump by a “lone gunman”, the wars in the Ukraine and Syria will go on with no prospects of any kind of meaningful negotiations.  And whether Trump or Hillary get into the White House next, a major “reset” will take place in early 2017.  Trump will probably want to meet Putin for a major negotiations session involving all the key outstanding issues between the USA and Russia.  If Hillary and her Neocons make it into the White House then some kind of war between Russia and the USA will become almost impossible to prevent.

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  • paul

    Think the agony is entirely Syrian.

  • Olayinka Abdulgafar

    It all come down Syria becoming a bargaining chip on the board of the superpowers, meaning more death and destruction in Syria. Oh Lord! Save Syria and Syrians.

  • chris chuba

    Let’s assume that both attacks were done intentionally by the U.S.

    So then the implication is that Obama knows that the Pentagon is insubordinate to his Constitutional authority to control U.S. foreign policy and the military yet he is siding with his insubordinate Defense Dept. A true Commander and Chief would start a real investigation and hang the perpetrators by their nuts. Anything less than this actually destroys the very fabric of the U.S. govt. and this would be the most poisonous legacy of his Administration (not discounting his evil Syrian policies).

    • Brad Isherwood

      http://www.strategic-culture.org/news/2016/09/19/imperium-americana-regional-warlords-march-their-own-drum-beats.html

      Wayne Madsen pulls the curtain back for us.

      Empire is a careening ride………going to wreck into a big war .

      • chris chuba

        It is one thing if the U.S. does bad things because the President agrees to it. I am saying that it even worse if the U.S. military is disobeying the President and the President actually lets them get away with it. The first problem can eventually be fixed by new people. The second problem can cause close to irreversible damage.

        • Brad Isherwood

          The Palatine Hill crowd of Rome (Senators/ Oligarchy)…would arrange for Roman soldiers to be weakened at city gate defence.
          They would pay Mercs to attack the gates. ..rampage thru the city.
          Next day. ..it’s call up the Legions at the Senate.

          Whatever Legislation. ..be it Roman citizen or competing Senator had in vote
          Would be shelved until the Legions restored security.
          In many cases….legislations sat for over 2 years. …that’s why they pulled the
          False Flag event.

          Same for today. ..
          The Legislation must be knocked out of the way.

          JFK discovered the Elite and Oligarchy were frustrated with him…and his
          Legislations. ..
          Israel was……as JFK was rumored to be against Israel having the bomb.

          • Ronald

            As you said “the Legislation must be knocked out of the way” , the Commander and Chief , has been turned into the PR man for the ” deep state ” (the military and oligarchs) ever since JFK. Syria is caught up between two reasons , the financial (Golan Heights mega oil field , and the pipeline) , and Israel’s military fear of Iran and the goal of a ” Greater Israel” . The money men like to retain control , but as in, the Pentagon and the CIA supporting different factions in Syria and then they end up fighting each other . Things can go wildly out of control. These players both consider themselves the rule makers , but not followers . Follow the money seems to rule, but the heavens hold surprises .

          • Brad Isherwood

            http://english.almanar.com.lb/16366
            http://english.almanar.com.lb/32679
            Israel has reason to worry….
            The Palestinians could overrun Jerusalem in 1 Hour. ..
            When they are ready to pay the price….it’s over for J’Lem.
            Iran is ? ….China appears to be moving to support Silk Road with finance,weapons,training…reconstruction…for Syria.
            How Iran fits into this future Syria is ?.
            Iran at present is wanting access to foreign banking which is still closed door as
            Obama deal was a canard.
            While supporting Hezbollah and Syria….Iran is also trying to smooze with the Global
            Elite.
            It’s to Israel’s benefit to see Iran bang the table and yell. ..then try that Euro Banker
            Phone line one more time.

            If Russia and China support Hezbollah….that could give Israel a stroke.
            Hezbollah with counter battery radar….Area burn jamming technology…
            Lots and lots more ATGMs.

            Israel for now has a fragmented Arab world around it.
            Saudi get millions more in weapons tech from US. ..yet their army is getting
            Beaten in Yemen conflict.
            Maybe Saudi weapons are just US forward deploy.

    • Tom Johnson

      Wow! Chris you have developed a conspiracy inside of a conspiracy.

      • janarddan

        Much like Tom Johnson is an offspring-born-out-of-incest of an offspring-born-out-of-incest ?

      • GrandmaR

        Actually, a play within the play. Nothing new. Probably as old as humanity.

    • FkDahl

      Compare Eisenhower vs Dulles and the U2 overflight and shoot down, or Bay of Pigs vs Kennedy.

    • GrandmaR

      The “very fabric” of U.S. govt. (already seriously undermined) was finally destroyed during the day of 9/11/01 while G.W. Bush was joy riding around on Air Force One and Cheney/Rumsfeld, et al., were “taking care of business.” I have little doubt that Putin & Associates understand that quite well. We are all playing our parts in this giant drama — remember, “All the world’s a stage….” Putin’s role is to try to save Russia. Dr. Assad is trying to save Syria. The Axis of Evil is opposite of what GWB announced after 9/11 — everything pretending to be reality is actually opposing reality. Things are not what they seem to be.

  • Tom

    The Russians might want to review the history of US-Native American treaties. The US government has been “not-agreement-capable” from the beginning. It’s our oldest foreign policy tradition.

  • Rick0Shea

    “some kind of war”…

    My question is, do the neocons think they can have a “small scale – non nuclear” war with Russia? Really? Seems they must.

    I recall a group of Russian ex-pats in the USA recently wrote an open letter trying to educate Americans who really don’t know much, if anything, about Russia and Russians – what war with Russia is going to entail – not pretty is a vast understatement.