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West Might Have No Choice But To Engage With Taliban Government

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West Might Have No Choice But To Engage With Taliban Government

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The Taliban is likely to take complete power sooner rather than later.

Written by Paul Antonopoulos, independent geopolitical analyst

A recent offensive by the Taliban has resulted in major centers in key Afghan provinces to fall to the group. The Taliban are now less than 150 kilometers away from Kabul and it is only a matter of time before they conquer the capital. The rapid spread of the Taliban in Afghanistan is not a consequence of some brilliant military strategy or some great military defeat they inflicted on government forces, but a reflection of the political situation in the country. The sudden rise of the Taliban is a consequence of the unwillingness of local police, local armed militias and local communities to resist the Taliban.

Yesterday, the Biden administration announced that it would deploy 3,000 troops to Afghanistan in order to facilitate the withdrawal of personnel at the U.S. Embassy in Kabul. This suggests that the U.S. recognizes that the Taliban will eventually capture Kabul and take control of the country.

It is reminded that this is not the first time that the Taliban has taken control. Thirty years ago, the predecessors of the Taliban, the mujaheddin, controlled practically all of Afghanistan with the exception of certain territories that are always under the control of tribes and/or business cartels.

Ultimately, authorities in Kabul nominally controlled the entire country following the U.S. invasion in 2001, but even they could not maintain any particular stability despite significant support from the West. The Taliban as an organization has shown that they can function even when suffering from severe Western sanctions, as was the case prior to 2001, but can also function when under direct foreign occupation. The Taliban are very resilient, having survived 20 years of warfare with the West thanks to their strong foundations and not depending too much on foreign funds and support.

The international community, particularly Western countries, have never been overly principled in recognizing a certain political entity or reality. It is remembered that Washington forced most of Europe and a good part of the world to withdraw their recognition of Bashar al-Assad as Syrian President despite him having full control of all the ministries and institutions.

It is inevitable that the West will slowly begin recognizing Assad again, just as they will have to deal with the reality of the Taliban being back in power. None-the-less, if the Western elite estimate that they can gain more from recognizing the Taliban regime, they will do so.

Essentially, everything will mostly depend on the geopolitical interests of the U.S. and how China and Russia might gain significant influence in a post-NATO Afghanistan. If Washington estimates that the destabilization of the entire region would upset the interests of Russia and China, it could use any means to ensure the two Eurasian countries do not gain a major advantage.

The reality is that the Taliban coming to power will not essentially bring any differences in terms of everyday life in Afghanistan for the majority of people outside of Kabul and a few other major cities. Although the Taliban are undoubtedly Muslim extremists, Afghanis overwhelmingly are conservative in nature and many identify closer to Taliban ideology than Western cosmopolitanism that has crept into the country’s cities.

Interestingly, the data on the demographic boom in Afghanistan is something quite unusual for a country that has experienced so much warfare. Major wars usually have an extremely negative impact on demographics, such as Syria which has been suffering from a demographic crisis due to the war and the huge outflow of refugees. Afghanistan also has a huge outflow of refugees, but the country has a demographic boom that has seen the population grow by 20 million since Soviet troops withdrew from the country in 1988-89.

Most young Afghanis do not have prospects for development and employment, leaving many people with few choices – fight for the Taliban, Afghan Army or another militia, get involved in the opium industry, or illegally migrate to the West. Since the Taliban are likely to come to power, it cannot be expected that any significant changes in development and job opportunities will occur.

It is estimated that with such a high birth rate, Afghanistan will double its population again in the coming decades. In that sense, Afghanistan can become a fairly large country, which, provided that at some point it is not translated into some dynamic economic development, will only be a generator of instability in the region.

With a new regime likely taking over Kabul, a young and dynamic population, and severe issues of employment, the question still remains whether the West will capitulate and recognize a Taliban government or not. With Afghanis illegally migrating to Europe en mass via Iran and Turkey, it will likely be inevitable for the European Union to engage in discussion with a Taliban government. As for Washington, that still remains to be seen.


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S Balu

During Taliban being in power they had eliminated POPPY CULTIVATION AND this is what upset US invaders as In invading Afghanistan USA/NATO STRATEGIC PLAN WAS TO flood
Central Asia,China,Russia etc with very cheap HEROINE AND DESTROY THEM WITHOUT FIRING A SHOT
REMEMBER ground reality was Russia,China were very weak after demise of USSR and Central Asian were orphans
Karazi was CIA TRAINED despot and USA imposed him as being best solution and hyped up his potential

S Balu

Taliban of past is very different from Taliban of Today
Whole point is Afghanistan is such PIVOTAL STATE that if it tips towards China course
History and prosperity of zio Christian west DEMISE would BE accelerated as Afghanistan is Key link in China’s BRI system and this FACT IS HURTING zio Christian west and they understand the implications

Ahson

No kidding….lol….he refuses to believe that China only uses these bastards as low cost anti-india jihadists. That’s about their only utility. The problem now Jensi is that with both Afghanistan/ Pakistan a couple of shit-hole failed states, Iran will come under pressure to accommodate these worthless fucks or they’d starve! The west will sanction them both now. You know the sanctions are coming…..the West has dumped these worthless cunts on Russia/ China/ Iran, because nobody else will help them. Just a huge unexpected problem now.

Last edited 1 month ago by Ahson
Sylvain

Zios are not necessary Christians.

Last edited 1 month ago by Sylvain
S Balu

The Taliban are made up of thousands of fighters who are all Afghans. They are fed, sheltered, and transported by the Afghan people, not aliens. The Taliban have been fighting NATO regimes using guerrilla war tactics, a methodology impossible to sustain for so many years without popular support. This is an aspect deliberately missing from media reports of Western regimes.

Ahson

He’s a punjabi lower caste dalit whose come here chasing me since I mentioned SF……stupid bastard is a cabby living in the US and a practicing jihadist talibunny supporter.

S Balu

What a liar Boris Johnson is About Al Qaida which is created ,natured and backed Britain, USA,NATO is present in Afghanistan
This reminds me of Lie that war criminal Tony Blair Lied in The British Parliament and in front of World cameras about SADDAM’S WMD
War criminal Tony Blair not only lied but he insulted the intelligence of Humanity
Boris Johnson is not only Lying but Insulting Intelligence of Humanity

SpecOps

With the Taliban they will be smart enough to recognize the fake covid injection along with all other drugs including heroin as evil and not only burn the poppy fields but become a thorn in the narrative that vaccines reduce covid.

Likewise the AnsarAllah of Yemen would refuse this shot because they always have been suspicious of anything western, and Saudi Arabia their mortal enemy, is backed by western powers.

These and others will become that control group that shows the injections are the ones killing people.

Irony in this whole messed up upside down world is the American civilian gun owner, if he can stand his ground and maintain the 60+ % unvaccinated group will be the other large group showing the injection does not work. This will pose a problem for the narrative.

The MSM will still spin deaths caused by the Afghanistan war as covid so independent reports will have to show that the unvaccinated Taliban are doing just fine without masks or injections.

Last edited 1 month ago by SpecOps
L du Plessis

The Taliban fears the liberal homo West that satan has created.

Americunt LOSERS

So-called west is a pimping whore and only interested in money.

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