US Sanctions Foster Emergence of Multipolar World

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Written by Arkady Savitsky; Originally appeared on strategic-culture.org

Russia, Iran, China, and now Turkey are in the same boat, as all have become the target of US sanctions. But none of those nations has bowed under the pressure. Russia had foreseen the developments in advance and took timely measures to protect itself. The Turkish national currency, the lira, is plummeting now that Washington has introduced sanctions as well as tariffs on steel and aluminum, in an attempt to compel Ankara to turn over a detained American pastor. Turkish President Erdogan said it was time for Turkey to seek “new friends,” and Turkey is planning to issue yuan-denominated bonds to diversify its foreign borrowing instruments. On Aug. 11, President Erdogan said Turkey was ready to begin using local currencies in its trade with Russia, China, Iran, Ukraine, and the EU nations of the eurozone.

The recent BRICS summit reaffirmed Ankara’s commitment to the Contingent Reserve Arrangement (CRA) that is geared toward de-dollarizing its member states’ economies, and the agreement to quickly launch a Local Currency Bond Fund gives that policy teeth. Turkey has also expressed its desire to join BRICS.

Ankara is gradually moving toward membership in the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO). It has been accepted as a dialog partner of that organization. Last year Turkey became a dialog partner with ASEAN. On Aug. 1, the first ASEAN-Turkey Trilateral Ministerial Meeting was held in Singapore, bringing together Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlüt ÇavuşoğluASEAN Secretary General Dato Lim Jock Hoi, and Singaporean Foreign Minister Vivian Balakrishnan, who is serving as the 2018 ASEAN term chairman. The event took place under the auspices of the 51st ASEAN Foreign Ministers’ Meeting that attracted foreign ministers and top diplomats from 30 countries.

Ankara is mulling over a free-trade area (FTA) agreement with the Eurasian Union. This cooperation between Ankara and the EAEU has a promising future.

Meanwhile, the Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (ICBC) has provided a $3.6-billion loan package for the Turkish energy and transportation sector. Turkey and China have recently announced an expansion of their military ties. As one can see, Turkey is inexorably pivoting from the West to the East.

Russia has a special role to play in this process. The US Congress has prohibited the sale of F-35 fighter jets to Turkey because of the risk associated with Ankara’s purchase of the S-400 air-defense system. In response, Turkey is contemplating a purchase of Russian warplanes. Ankara prefers Russian weapons over the ones offered by NATO states. As President Erdogan put it, “Before it is too late, Washington must give up the misguided notion that our relationship can be asymmetrical and come to terms with the fact that Turkey has alternatives.”

On Aug. 10, Russian President Vladimir Putin and Turkish President Recep Erdogan discussed the prospects for boosting economic cooperation. Both nations are parties to the ambitious Turkish Stream natural-gas pipeline project. Ideas for ways to join forces in response to the US offensive were also on the agenda during the visit of Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov to Turkey, Aug. 13-14, although Syria was in the spotlight of the talks. One mustn’t forget that Russia was the first country to be visited by the Turkish president after the failed 2016 coup.

As a result of some tough times resulting from US sanctions, Iran is redoubling its efforts at building foreign relationships. Under US pressure, European companies are leaving Iran, with China gradually filling the void. Now that US and European airspace companies are moving their business ventures out of Iran, this presents a good opportunity for Russian aircraft, such as the MS-21 or IL-96-400M. The Russian automaker GAZ Group is ready to supply Iran with commercial vehicles and light trucks powered by 5th generation engines.

Tehran is an observer state in the SCO, and it is to become an essential hub for the Chinese Belt Road Initiative (BRI). On June 25, a freight train arrived in the Iranian city of Bandar-e Anzali, a port on the Caspian Sea, having passed through the China-Kazakhstan-Iran transportation corridor and entering the Anzali Free Zone that connects China to both the Kazakh port of Aktau and to Iran, thus creating a new trade link to the outside world. This gives a boost to the BRI. On Aug. 12, the five littoral states (the Caspian Five) signed the Caspian Sea Convention — the fruit of 22 years of difficult negotiations. This opens up new opportunities for Iran and other countries of the region as well as the BRI. The idea to form a new economic forum was floated at the Caspian Five summit.

China and Russia back the idea of Iran’s full-fledged SCO membership. In May Tehran signed an interim FTA agreement with the EAEU. Greater EAEU-BRI integration under the stewardship of the SCO is also on the horizon.

According to the Daily Express, Iran could band together with Russia and China in an anti-US alliance. Iran may also get an observer status in the CSTO. Iran-Turkey trade has recently revived, and that bilateral relationship includes burgeoning military cooperation.

Nothing can be viewed in just black and white, and every coin has two sides. The US sanctions do negatively affect the economies and finances of the targeted countries, but in the long run, they will also push the nations hit by them to move closer to each other, thus encouraging the emergence of the multipolar world the US is trying so hard to resist.

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  • occupybacon

    The more sanctions the better, right? then why bitching about them, just wave of joy and happiness

  • paul ( original )

    I think the general thesis is correct – USA sanctions do promote the
    emergence of a multi-polar world. However, I find it difficult to
    estimate how deep rooted these developments are. I have rather lost
    count of the times I have read that the Dollar is being abandoned.
    Like so many other things it seems something that is always about to
    happen. Also if these nations are forced together only by necessity,
    then by selectively loosening the choke hold the USA can break away
    any member it chooses.

    I see Russia and China as the most stable partners . As for the others,
    I would not rely on them.

    • Promitheas Apollonious

      for the $ to be abandoned completely, in an organized fashion and not a disastrous one, it takes years. The mechanism to abandon the $ as trading currency is already establishing itself.

    • Douglas Houck

      Yes, I agree with your comments, especially, “I have rather lost
      count of the times I have read that the Dollar is being abandoned.”.

      The emergence of a multi-polar world is well underway. What we are witnessing is a change of the US accepting a multi-polar world (under President Obama) and trying their best to stop it from occuring.

      A country needs three elements to be the world hegemony:
      1) Military technological superiority/advantage
      2) World Reserve Currency
      3) Largest economy (per GDP)

      Russia has recently taken away the first element, and based on expected GDP growth, China should become the world’s largest economy by around 2040 or so. The Reserve Curreny will be the last to change.

      Yale professor Paul Kennedy’s 1987, The Rise And Fall of the Great Powers” showed that over the last 500 years, once a country/hegemony’s relative economic power (GDP), began to decline in relation to another country(ies). that country would lose it’s hegemony position. There are two options for the declining country/hegemony: fight the change or accept it and plan accordingly. Every country in the last 500 years had gone through the same decline and all those who have fought the change have failed.

      You can see that the change to a multi-polar world has already occured in the Syrian war. The US and it’s allies can no longer dictact the actions of other countries. What Zbigniew Brzezinski would characterise as being able to ‘project power from afar with impunity’.

      The change to a fully multi-polar world will take decades. The Donald is simply trying to be the first person in 500 years to stop that process and most likely will fail. As the change unfolds, the most important thing is for it not to result in WWIII. Time will tell.

  • Barba_Papa

    >>Now that US and European airspace companies are moving their business ventures out of Iran, this presents a good opportunity for Russian aircraft, such as the MS-21 or IL-96-400M.<<

    Having been to Iran I know from personal experience that Russian passenger aircraft do not have a good reputation there. The Iranians operate a number of Tupolev passenger jets, who had a bad habit of falling out of the skies. And Iranians, when booking a flight often inquire if the aircraft they're going to fly on is a Tupolev or not. And if it was if they could get a seat on a plane that wasn't. There's a reason why Boeing and Airbus were going to receive a lot of new orders when the Iranian nuclear deal had been signed. Now the bad reputation may no longer deserved with current Russian airliners, but it does exist.

    • paul ( original )

      The thing about bad reputations is that they can last for hundreds of years, long after everyone has forgotten the original reason.

      • Barba_Papa

        True. Very much true.

    • Manuel Flores Escobar

      Nonsese..Iran have lost many western made jets during 80..I remember a B747 of Iran air force crashed in Spain beside 707 and 727 accidents..all of 2 accidents of T-154 were a consecuence of Human failure beside poor maintain due to post soviet era difficults!..Nowdays Iran have bought ATR-72 which have a big ratio of accidents…but since its built in the west…will not have a bad reputation!

      • John Whitehot

        there is also the Airbus 310 shot down by a US Navy missile cruiser with a Standard missile – a topic that is not that often remembered these days.

      • Barba_Papa

        Western jets fall down too in Iran. The nuclear sanctions in particular saw to that as they could no longer get spare parts for their Western jets. But its about the image. To an Iranian, at least the ones I know, Western jets fall from the sky due to sanctions. Russian jets fall from the sky regardless of sanctions. Therefore getting a seat in a Boeing or Airbus is still preferable.

        • Manuel Flores Escobar

          yeah surely you prefer getting a seat in an old Boeing 727( which have more ratio accidents per hour than (tu 154)…even you prefer 727 than new Sukhoi superjet….western propagande talk about “safety western made jets”…but if you ask to Aeronautic engineer will say that all planes which fly accord to international rules and safe recomendation are safety and only poor maintain, Human fail and bad luck circunstance cause accidents!

    • Douglas Houck

      Iran has never been that keen on buying Russian commercial jets, even the latest ones. They simply do not compare with the Boeing/Airbus jets. Iran will most likely look to buying used western jets from countries like India or China that don’t care about the US sanctions.

      • Barba_Papa

        Yeah, I see that happening. I do hope that whatever they will buy will not fall down when I’m on board.

    • Assad must stay (gr8rambino)

      What about other European jets?

  • 1691

    Like it or not the World is multipolar. End of discussion.

  • hvaiallverden

    Its an hedg war, its about making it as hard as possible, to make currencys fluctuate, to focus on stocks etc witch means jack shit, other then been whined about in the MSM and so called alt-sites, witch is hammering Turkie.
    My only adivice is patient, Turks problems are mostly created by them self, nobody else, the rise in the latest years have been an ilution, and most Turks havent noticed anything.

    Iran and Turkis, must take an hard look into their own world first in this times, what can be replaced, etc, and dont forget, this kicks into the west to, but that is never ever debated anyway, decreasing state income due to sky rocketing social costs, etc to wars, and to a lot of people, the BRICS countrys wasnt doing bad, what happened was an banking scam imploded in 2008, and plunged everybody into debt thru austeritys, do you f….. idiots realise what happened.
    Everything we persive this days of cuts, and tax reeleasings to the bog corps and owners, while we are been plundered bare thru crony capitalism,yeah, bitches, truth hurts.

    We have only one problem, the banking ind. until the last banker is hanging in the wind, to feed the crows, nothing will improve what so ever, and now, the bonkers wankers in that Kensyian cargo cult wants rising intrest to counter rising infllation, yeah, you cant be more f…… up that beliving that helps us, we the people.

    What happens is an coordinated attack, the Iran hate propaganda and effects of it, even in this I have to be the Devills advocate, even when the involved person is an POS and rotten to His core, even thoe, the witch hunt on Him because of been with an Iranian woman is simply jaw dropping, and hysterical insane drivel is pimped by the MSM in Norway to any given time, about Iran, while completely ignoring Yemen and so on and the use of Norse (uh……) soldiers to train ISIS.
    Never forget that Turks, you are just sub-humans, they dont give an rats ass for you, never have and never will, diversify and use your head, patient is an virtue.
    But you will go no where without disiplin and transparancy, end the military stupidity and save money when you scrap the even more idiotic plain called F-35, an 70s stone age tech relic witch by the way is an copy of an old Russian experimental plain design, the UssA have invented nothing, thats another fact, the only thing they are good at, is been an mafia org and an war machine, the biggest and badest money can buy, the imperial banana republic UssA.
    Be very carefull with reading anything this days, the bashing in the west have gone into warp drive and is sucking them self into another parralell reality where we have no idea of what, you simply cant reason with them at all, debate what, with whom, when they are the chosen ones, hallelujah, GOD is on their side, just ask them.

    Turks must think loong term, people fiirst, when threy rise in prospperity etc, you country rises, be carefull with IMFs, long term loans to invest in things you can do your self if you think long term.
    Turkien is still one of the few countrtys I want to go to, its an fight back home, but so far I can judge Turks is an OK country, some issues of course, but that goes to Noray to, the mmayoore difference is more like driving your car in an traffic that would safly cahergorised as insane.
    In Norway, an Turkish Granny can drive everywhere, hehe, like Russia in the old days, where I sreamed my self hoars just driving thru St. Petersburg.
    Talk about scared shitless.

    So, take it easy, the whoms and the vassalls is easy to see this days and there will come an tomorrow, when this corps whom are in this because of been despicable cowards and shows an total lack of morale and desency in every aspects, will loose in the long term, like why I personally boycots Nike and so on, will never buy anything they make any more, never again.
    And what else do the wankees have, apart from obsolite weapon systems, when Syria have shown what you actually need, instead of stupid wankees selling you exspencive crap.
    Look to Yemen.

    peace

  • Merijn

    I sanction the Whole World…I Sanction the Nations… I Sanction the Peoples… I Sanction the Animals… I Sanction the Skies… I Sanction the Oceans… I Sanction the Forests… I Sanction the Rivers… I Sanction the lakes… I Sanction the Mountains…. I Sanction the Universe….For I am the President of the United States of America.

    Signed Donald John Trump

  • Merijn

    MO’ SANCTIONS….SANCTION IT ALL….WE WANT MO’ SANCTIONS…