Why the US decision to supply arms to Ukraine is disastrous

Donate

Written by Alexander Mercouris; Originally appeared at The Duran

The US decision to supply arms to Ukraine is utterly misconceived, but it continues a pattern of confrontational short-term policy decisions which have become the norm in the US ever since the US military effectively took charge of the US government back in the summer.

Any policy whose reasoning is difficult to explain is almost by definition flawed, and this policy is no exception.  Here are a number of possible explanations for this move.

Why the US decision to supply arms to Ukraine is disastrous

(1) the US weapons are being supplied to facilitate a planned Ukrainian offensive to conquer the Donbass;

(2) the US weapons are being supplied as a gesture of political support for Ukraine in its continued confrontation with the two People’s Republics and with Russia;

(3) the US weapons are being supplied to enable the US to gain political leverage over Russia in the ongoing negotiations to settle the Ukrainian crisis;

(4) the US weapons are being supplied to help Donald Trump politically at home by stifling criticism that he is “giving up” on Ukraine and in order to show that he is “getting tough” with Russia.

The one explanation which can be ruled out is the explanation the US has given for its decision: that the US weapons being supplied are purely defensive weapons intended to deter a Russian attack on Ukraine.

The US must know by now that no Russian attack on Ukraine is in prospect or planned so this explanation cannot be true.

Not all these explanations are mutually exclusive and it may be that more than one of them applies.  However as with so many other foreign policy decisions recently taken by the US this one does not look like it has been properly discussed within the US government or thought through.

Briefly, my guess is that the most commonly cited explanation within the US government to justify this decision is (3), with the weapons intended to provide the US with leverage in the negotiations underway with the Russians so that US can force Russia to a settlement of the Ukrainian crisis on US terns.

It has become increasingly clear over the last few weeks that the US misunderstood President Putin’s agreement that UN peacekeepers be sent to the protect the OSCE monitors along the contact line in the Donbass as a sign that the Russians were coming round to the Ukrainian idea of a UN peacekeeping force deployed throughout the Donbass to facilitate the restoration of Ukrainian control there.

Negotiations over the last few weeks have shown that this was an illusion and that the Russians are no nearer to agreeing to such a proposal – which they say (rightly) contradicts the Minsk Agreement – than ever.

The decision to send a limited number of weapons to Ukraine therefore looks like it could be intended to put pressure on the Russians to agree to this Ukrainian proposal for a peacekeeping.

If so then the decision is misconceived since instead of forcing the Russians to agreeing to the sort of the sort of peacekeeping force the Ukrainians are proposing, it is all but guaranteed to make the Russians harden their position still further.

Already the Russians are saying that the US cannot be a mediator in the conflict when it is arming one side against the other, and they are already broadly hinting that their response will be to step up their own arms supplies to the People’s Republics.

The effect of the US proposal will therefore be to make both sides in the conflict more heavily armed than ever.

That however is only the beginning of the trouble.

Though the US has not publicly said what weapons it intends to supply, it is likely that the weapons will include a batch of Javelin anti tank missiles.

These are known to be sophisticated weapons which are difficult to use and which require a high level of training if they are to be used properly.

If so then that points to a US training mission being sent to Ukraine to train Ukrainian troops in their use.  That brings US troops even more directly into the Ukrainian military theatre than they are already, creating a serious risk that they will become directly involved in the actual fighting with all the catastrophic political consequences which may follow from that.

That fighting is now set to intensify.  Irrespective of what the US intends by sending these weapons, the Ukrainians are bound to see their supply as an encouragement for them to take further military action.

In that case the high probability is not just that the Russians will step up their arms supplies to the two People’s Republics, but in a theatre where former US President Barack Obama once admitted that the Russians possess “escalatory dominance” they will do so on a scale which dwarfs whatever arms the US supplies to Ukraine.

It is a fundamental error to see the Javelin anti tank missiles as some sort of ‘magic bullet’ which will decisively turn the balance of the fighting in favour of the Ukrainians.

This idea probably originates in the mythology surrounding the US’s supply of Stinger anti aircraft missiles to the Mujahideen in Afghanistan in the 1980s.  The arrival of the Stingers is frequently credited with causing the Soviet decision to withdraw from Afghanistan, though in reality that decision had already been made before the Stingers arrived.  In reality, though the Stingers did have a brief impact after they were introduced, by the time of their withdrawal the Soviets were well on the way to developing effective counter measures to them, and their actual effect on the fighting was slight.

The point of the Ukrainian military’s greatest manpower and equipment advantage over the militias of the Donbass was in July 2014, when Ukraine deployed a fully equipped force of 60,000 men backed by tanks, armoured vehicles, artillery and aircraft against a few thousand lightly armed militia.

The Ukrainian army was unable to prevail then despite possessing a seemingly overwhelming advantage, and today when the two People’s Republics are said to possess fully armed and trained forces numbering 35,000 men it is all but impossible to see how they could prevail now.  Supply of a batch of Javelin anti tank missiles – or indeed of large numbers of Javelin anti tank missiles – cannot change that picture.

With economic conditions in Ukraine likely to deteriorate over the next few months pressure within Ukraine for a military strike against the Donbass is anyway likely to increase.  The US has now given it further encouragement.

More bitter fighting in Ukraine will follow, with a high possibility that Ukraine will go for broke and that Ukraine and the US will end up with another debacle.

Donate

SouthFront

Do you like this content? Consider helping us!

  • Nexusfast123

    Biggest terrorist nation in the world – the US. Just ups the anti and as the article comments the Russians will be tempted to counter and supply advanced weaponry. Russian anti armour missiles are just as potent as any thing the US has.

    It’s not going to end well for the US and probably not for the rest of us either.

    • cortisol

      The Kiev imposter regime could be one large, solid defeat away from dissipating, which could also break off other regions. Hopefully the republics can deliver it to them with additional and better weaponry. I do see that a sovereign Ukraine is finished in any case. Some parts will enjoy life with Russia and other parts become slaves on for the Empire on minimum life support.

    • hhabana

      I agree with you my friend of things not ending well for the “people”. Trump is following some type of doctrine set up by who knows whom-the rich guys and power players at Davis and other elitist groups.

      • Mollie Norris

        “some type of doctrine set up by who knows”:
        Trump is a Zionist with a Chabad Lubavitcher advisor and a former Lubavitcher campaign manager.

  • Serious

    Don’t worry people in Donbass, Pussin is here to help you just like the way he helped Syrians : destruction of your homeland. XD.

    • Feudalism Victory

      Syria was already being destroyed. Putin was just testing weapons and training soldiers while killing isis before they moved onto central asia and russia

    • ZP

      Seriously deluded Syria was destroyed by the ME coalition of the killing (NATO, SA and its satellites, Turkey, Jordan and Izrael) if it wasn’t for Putin they would have had a Sharia Court ruling the Judiciary and Police/Military of Syria by now

  • John Brown

    It’s an opportunity for Novo Russia to defensively advance to Kharkov and Odessa and crush the Jewish Nazi army after the Ukraine Nazi Jewish regime attacks Novo Russia with these weapons. I bet the Jewish Nazis attack during the Olympics.

    • Feudalism Victory

      Jewish nazi is an oxymoron. Khazarian is the term you need here.

      • Serious

        It’s not an oxymore, it’s a synonym. judaism is very close to nazism.

        • Feudalism Victory

          Im not a talmudic scholar so I cant say. But I can say that most people think of nazis and jews to be opposites so using them together turns most peoples minds away.

          • Serious

            Judaism and nazism are very close ideollogically. The only diffenrence is that judaism is base on fairytale but nazism is based on reality.

          • Feudalism Victory

            Have a handy link to an essay to explore that concept?

          • Serious

            Give it a though and it will makes perfect sense.

          • Cheryl Brandon

            dam right

      • Cheryl Brandon

        Indeed

      • John Brown

        part 1 Nazis and racist supremacist Jews allies forever with identical race laws.
        When Hitler Honored Jewish Soldiers
        The Nazi regime conferred honors on many of the 100,000 Jews who fought in the German army in the Great War, even on some who had already escaped to Palestine.
        https://www.haaretz.com/caught-in-the-middle-part-jewish-germans-served-in-nazi-army-1.185805
        Hitler’s Jewish Army
        https://www.haaretz.com/jewish/features/.premium-1.602868
        https://www.haaretz.com/cau
        At least 150,000 Jews served Hitler
        Rigg, who spent seven years researching his book, estimates that at least 150,000 men of Jewish origin served in the German army during World War II. One of these men was Major Ernst Bloch, the focus of Rigg’s second book – “Rescued from the Reich: How One of Hitler’s Soldiers Saved the Lubavitcher Rebbe.” Price is also working on a film version of this sensational story.
        read more: https://www.haaretz.com/cau
        A German soldier in Nazi uniform strolls in the park hand-in-hand with his Jewish grandmother, the yellow “Jude” star on her coat. A Nazi officer is dispatched by the German high command to rescue the Lubavitch rebbe.
        Grandpa’s Nazi past shocks Jewish star
        Chelsea Handler confronts dark family history as she undergoes a televised journey of self-discovery
        By YIFA YAAKOV
        10 August 2013, 5:27 pm 80
        American Jewish comedienne Chelsea Handler realized her family history was no laughing matter last week as she underwent a journey of self-discovery in an episode of TLC’s Who Do You Think You Are, which was aired Tuesday.
        In the episode, Handler, who was raised Jewish by her Jewish mother and non-Jewish father, confronted the dark secret her “very, very big, strong” German grandfather, Karl Stoecker, had avoided discussing for years — his Nazi past and role in the Holocaust.
        https://justice4poland.com/2014/09/01/150-000-jews-in-hitlers-army-this-bit-of-history-was-hidden-from-us/

      • John Brown

        part 2 Racist supremacist Jews = Nazis Hitler followed the Rothchilds orders in implementing the holocaust on any Jews who refused to move to Palestine as per the Havara pact with the help of his 150 k plus Jewish army.
        . So are the Times of Israel and Haretz lying about this? Are they anti Jewish? Don’t take my word for it as nothing beats the voluntary confession. Who tells the truth on this board???
        https://www.timesofisrael.com/jewish-comedienne-faces-grandpas-nazi-past/
        Racist supremacist Nazi Jews role role in running the Holocaust. American Jewish comedienne Chelsea Handler who was raised Jewish by her Jewish mother and non-Jewish father, confronted the dark secret her “very, very big, strong” German grandfather, Karl Stoecker, had avoided discussing for years — his Nazi past and role in the Holocaust.
        https://justice4poland.com/2014/09/01/150-000-jews-in-hitlers-army-this-bit-of-history-was-hidden-from-us/
        Thousands of men of Jewish descent and hundreds of what the Nazis called ‘full Jews’ served in the German military with Adolf Hitler’s knowledge and approval. Cambridge University researcher Bryan Rigg has traced the Jewish ancestry of more than 1,200 of Hitler’s soldiers, including Two field marshals, (God knows how many Jews they killed) Fifteen generals, (God knows how many Jews they killed) Two full generals, (God knows how many Jews they killed) Eight lieutenant generals, (God knows how many Jews they killed) Five major generals, “commanding up to 100,000 troops In approximately 20 cases, Jewish soldiers in the Nazi army were awarded Germany’s highest military honor, the Knight’s Cross. One of these Jewish veterans is today an 82 year old resident of northern Germany, an observant Jew who served as a captain and practiced his religion within the Wehrmacht throughout the war. One of the Jewish field marshals was Erhard Milch, deputy to Luftwaffe Chief Hermann Goering. Rumors of Milch’s Jewish identity circulated widely in Germany in the 1930s.

      • John Brown

        Part 3
        Part 1 In the 1930s Hitler cooperated with his Zionist friends – who had a good time in Berlin! – to drive Germany´s Jews to Palestine with so much success that when although in 1933 there were 505.000 Jews in Germany in the census 1933. By 1941, another 300.000 had emigrated with Hitler´s accept in 1941. And 150.000 Jews were soldiers in Hitler´s army.So the Jews to persecute in Germany were few! But there were many more in Poland, where they were disliked. We have seen how Walther Rothschild was the driving force behind the Balfour Declaration 100 years ago – in 1917, Rothschild promised to draw the US into WWI if the UK would guarantee that the Jews would have a homeland in Rothschild owned Palestine. Rothschild´s US agent, Jesuit Edward Mandell-House, managed to persuade Pres, Woodrow Wilson to join that war. Mandell-House wrote the Versailles Peace Treaty without German participation in a way that WWII was inevitable Israel is Rothschild´s land. Already in 1829, the Rothschilds had bought Jerusalem. We have seen how the Rockefellers (Jews) and the Rothschild Federal Reserve of the US as well as their Wall Street (Anthony Sutton) even funded Hitler and via the IG Farben ran death camp Auschwitz by means of forced Jewish labour. We have seen that Hitler was a Jew,probably even a Rothschild. Most of the top Nazis were Jewish We have seen how Jewish Rothschild´s agent, Jewish George Soros, betrayed Jews in Hungary and took their possessions – even calling this “the happiest time of his life”! Another confession! Nothing beats the voluntary confession Anja! https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0PUDmLCkgNc Therefore, the following is a logical sequel of Theodor Herzl´s diaries. Rudolf Kastner, the Zionist leader in Hungary, made a deal with Adolf Eichmann. another confession!!
        https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MekIiTzQaaQ

      • John Brown

        part 4
        Confession! American Jewish comedienne Chelsea Handler who was raised Jewish by her Jewish mother and non-Jewish father, confronted the dark secret her “very, very big, strong” German grandfather, Karl Stoecker, had avoided discussing for years — his Nazi past and role in the Holocaust. https://justice4poland.com/2014/09/01/150-000-jews-in-hitlers-army-this-bit-of-history-was-hidden-from-us/
        Confessions! Thousands of men of Jewish descent and hundreds of what the Nazis called ‘full Jews’ served in the German military with Adolf Hitler’s knowledge and approval. Cambridge University researcher Bryan Rigg has traced the Jewish ancestry of more than 1,200 of Hitler’s soldiers, including Two field marshals, (God knows how many Jews they killed) Fifteen generals, (God knows how many Jews they killed) Two full generals, (God knows how many Jews they killed) Eight lieutenant generals, (God knows how many Jews they killed) Five major generals, “commanding up to 100,000 troops In approximately 20 cases, Jewish soldiers in the Nazi army were awarded Germany’s highest military honor, the Knight’s Cross. One of these Jewish veterans is today an 82 year old resident of northern Germany, an observant Jew who served as a captain and practiced his religion within the Wehrmacht throughout the war. One of the Jewish field marshals was Erhard Milch, deputy to Luftwaffe Chief Hermann Goering. Rumors of Milch’s Jewish identity circulated widely in Germany in the 1930s.

      • John Brown

        part 5 The Nazi regime conferred honors on many of the 100,000 Jews who fought in the German army in the Great War, even on some who had already escaped to Palestine.
        https://www.haaretz.com/jew
        Hitler’s Jewish Army confession!
        https://www.haaretz.com/cau
        At least 150,000 Jews served Hitler
        Rigg, who spent seven years researching his book, estimates that at least 150,000 men of Jewish origin served in the German army during World War II. One of these men was Major Ernst Bloch, the focus of Rigg’s second book – “Rescued from the Reich: How One of Hitler’s Soldiers Saved the Lubavitcher Rebbe.” Price is also working on a film version of this sensational story. Confession!
        read more: https://www.haaretz.com/cau
        A German soldier in Nazi uniform strolls in the park hand-in-hand with his Jewish grandmother, the yellow “Jude” star on her coat. A Nazi officer is dispatched by the German high command to rescue the Lubavitch rebbe. Grandpa’s Nazi past shocks Jewish star. Confession!
        So are the Times of Israel and Haretz lying about this Anja? Are they anti Jewish? Don’t take my word for it as nothing beats the voluntary confession. Who tells the truth on this board me or Anja??? https://www.timesofisrael.com/jewish-comedienne-faces-grandpas-nazi-past/

      • John Brown

        part 6
        DID THE JEWS IN HITLER’S ARMY CAUSE THE ‘HOLOCAUST’?
        Rigg’s research also shed light on stories surrounding the rescue by German soldiers of the Lubavitcher grand rabbi of that time, who was in Warsaw when the war broke out in 1939.
        Joseph Isaac Schneerson was spirited to safety after an appeal to Germany from the United States. Schneerson was assisted by a German officer Rigg has identified as the highly decorated Maj. Ernst Bloch, whose father was a Jew.
        Jews also served in the Nazi police and security forces as ghetto police (Ordnungdienst) and concentration camp guards (kapos).
        So what happens to the claim that Hitler sought to exterminate all Jews, when he allowed some of them to join in his struggle against Bolshevism and International finance capitalism?
        “If the Jews were permitted to serve in Hitler’s armed forces then there could not have been a Holocaust.”
        During World War II thousands of Jews served in the Wehrmacht, many awarded the Cross for Bravery. Jews serving in the SS. Were they also in the Gestapo? As ‘Gestapo’ is an abbreviation of “Geheime Stadt Polizei”, meaning State Secret Police,
        Sources:
        William D. Montalbano, “The Jews in Hitler’s Military,” Los Angeles Times, Dec. 24, 1996.
        Tom Tugend, “Grad student uncovers Jews who fought for Adolf Hitler,” Jewish Telegraph Agency, Dec. 26, 1996.
        Lenni Brenner, Zionism in the Age of the Dictators.

      • John Brown

        part 7
        In any fair court that actually listened to real evidence (from sources such as the Israel Times, the Jerusalem Post etc.) it is very easy to prove the Nazi racist supremacist Jewish alliance and that it was mostly the Nazi Jewish army that killed Jews as part of that alliance, under the orders of the Rothschild’s, killed Jews unless said Jews moved to Palestine. The Rothschild banks even seized the financial assets of Jews in Swiss banks which is also well documented, of German Jews etc. killed in the holocaust for refusing to go to Palestine.
        Check out some real history and read Jews selling blacks, The Secret relationship between blacks and Jews all volumes and some confederate Jewish money with the Jewish faces on it, to prove racist Jews ran the South, 95 % of the slave trade committed the black holocaust of 400 years of slavery 100 million killed, rape, etc.
        See the Nazi Jewish Pact of steel the Havarra agreement by which Hitler created Israel.
        https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/8e5142fdf79f086ca4e3a87561def9b6b5a7e5c1a08933959cf5dbf361c50987.png

      • John Brown

        part 8
        To put the size of Hitlers massive, huge, Jewish Nazi army in context, the size of the entire British Armed Forces – by numbers today is around 144,000 trained active personnel. Comprising British Army, Royal Navy, Royal Marines and the Royal Air Force – the Armed Forces is a huge operation,
        So Hitlers massive, huge, gigantic Jewish Nazi army which ran the holocaust was bigger then the entire UK armed forces which are ranked as the 5th most powerful armed forces on the planet and the Jewish Nazi army was bigger then that 150 k to 144 k for the UK .
        Please explain how the Times of Israel and Haretz etc. are lying about this and are anti Jewish along with 60 minutes etc etc etc. It should make for a good laugh for all on this board. Is Chelsea Handler lying?? Look at the excellent evidence you can get from the Jewish press. Don’t take my word for it! To all Goyims on this board if you don’t already I suggest you study the Jewish Press – the ones based in Israel as I do – in order to get a full understanding of what they (the master race) routinely plan in respect to the Stupid Goyim. Don’t take my word for it, see for yourself. See below nothing beats the voluntary confession. In 100 Days, A New Jewish Elite Rises Under Trump Read more:http://forward.com/news/national/370369/in-100-days-a-new-jewish-elite-rises-under-trump/ It is where I get almost all my info. You’ll usually see them admitting things (like the Jewish Nazi army of 150 k running the holocaust etc.) that would never make it into the American or Western media, and if you’re not up on the Zionist, Jewish, racist, supremacist, empire, their rantings of hatred and racism for all Goyim and bragging of their murdering millions and millions of goyim and their total control of countries like the USA, Britain France, German etc. in their global empire it can be quite enlightening, indeed
        “We must not forget that some of greatest murderers of modern times were Jewish,” Plocker started out by saying. He went on to make a number of startling confessions: http://www.ynetnews.com/articles/0,7340,L-3342999,00.html http://www.jta.org/2010/10/18/news-opinion/israel-middle-east/sephardi-leader-yosef-non-Jews-exist-to-serve-jews https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/3ce223dc12d9b8a258530fcfb67dbeba80b4d26071cb6501f3df9d2675c9a307.jpg
        https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/12392db1db04b55b084d87cd907e2e19a7e25e74adf7ff532c7a676d87de65da.png https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/ad5ee0d0d5febec51af46f04527884ae1c81f7e20aab7b3cd93269ebf07c575a.jpg https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/65272ba33698043a57e8677e4dfb9b290550d79a0d39a7be6eeff14a12a9f86e.jpg https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/9f0fb6ae3ab8cf99bc7e11b4e52f821478c1219e3c7ad20eda4ce058baf6fdef.jpg https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/ad5ee0d0d5febec51af46f04527884ae1c81f7e20aab7b3cd93269ebf07c575a.jpg

    • ZP

      So true, these arms are to prevent the collapse of the “westernised Ukraine” at the attack of the Donbass army

  • Cheryl Brandon

    Jewish arms dealer Oleg Pasternak must be laughing already; Thinking about all the money he can hide of shore.