More and more evidence suggests that Ukraine was expecting and preparing for a Russian invasion. The Ukrainian Armed Forces were put on alert in advance and were able to partially repel Russian forces.
The successful actions of the AFU contributed to Belarus’ refusal to openly join the war on Russia’s side. Judging by the maps, it was the third party that was to strike Kiev. According to military experts, there was no one other than Belarus to participate in that direction. Minsk refused to officially attack Ukraine. However, this did not allow Belarus to avoid sanctions.
Also, the success of the AFU made it possible to repel the pressure of Russian forces in the Odessa direction. Although Snake Island was under the control of Russian troops, the landing in Odessa did not succeed. This was largely due to the quick action of mines on the coast. Ukraine is currently experiencing more negativity from this. The situation with food exports and with occasional accidents on beaches (civilians being blown up by mines) is having an impact.
The Ukrainian Armed Forces have been quite effective in the southwest of Kyiv. In the vicinity of the towns of Fastov and Vasylkiv, the defense was quite competently organized. Military units were withdrawn fairly quickly from under missile attacks. This made it possible to save manpower and conduct defensive operations against the Russian Armed Forces stationed in the vicinity of Kiev. These steps subsequently led to the partial unblocking of the Ukrainian capital.
At the same time, the AFU also made quite a serious miscalculation, underestimating the Crimean grouping of the Russian Armed Forces and the nature of its actions. This was the reason for the rapid seizure of the Kherson region. In addition, troops advancing towards the territory of the DNR hit the southern positions of the Donetsk grouping of the AFU. This contributed to the rapid advance of the Russian Armed Forces and the encirclement of Mariupol.
As a result, the data suggests that the AFU was counting on a generally more powerful strike by the Russian Armed Forces. At the same time, the potential of the Crimean formation of the Russian army was significantly underestimated, which resulted in territorial losses.
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