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Ukraine Is Hovering Between New War And Economic Collapse

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On July 27, a next “complete and all-encompassing ceasefire” between Kiev troops and self-defense forces of the Donetsk and Lugansk People’s Republics (DPR and LPR) started in eastern Ukraine. This is the most recent in a series of attempts to impose a complete ceasefire in the region.

Over two dozen previous ceasefires collapsed due to two main factors:

  • First, the inability of Kiev to control its own troops, including neo-Nazi armed groups, that are deployed on the frontline with the LPR and the DPR;
  • Second, the unwillingness of Kiev to support a political solution of the conflict with the DPR and LPR because the Ukrainian government uses military tensions in eastern Ukraine to achieve its own political and financial goals, including the justification of selling of the country’s sovereignty to the Euro-Atlantic structures, the mass censorship, and the persecution of opposition parties, media and activists.

The ability of the Ukrainian military to participate in ceasefires was recently demonstrated near the village of Zaitsevo. On July 14, a sabotage and reconnaissance unit of pro-Kiev forces violated the ceasefire regime entering the ‘gray zone’ preparing an attack on positions of DPR forces. However, the operation failed. At least 2 pro-Kiev fighters, including a citizen of Estonia, died and another one received injures. After this, Ukrainian media outlets launched an aggressive media campaign accusing the DPR of violating the ceasefire and Russia of committing one more ‘act of aggression’.

However, the Ukrainian leadership represented by President comedian Volodymyr Zelenski pretends that this time the situation will be different.

On July 26, Zelensky held a phone conversation with Russian President Vladimir Putin discussing the prospects of the ceasefire. The sides also discussed the Law on the Special Procedure for Local Self-Government in Certain Districts of the Donetsk and Lugansk Regions, which is being considered by the TCG political subgroup, and the Law on Decentralization, which provides for amendments to the Constitution of Ukraine.

Russia is the main supporter of the DPR and LPR and the only force directly opposing plans of Kiev and its NATO backers to launch a new large-scale advance in eastern Ukraine, which in the event of military success will inevitably lead to the mass killings of civilians there.

An overwhelming majority of the people in eastern Ukraine are ethnic Russians or speak Russian as the main language. All of them self-identify as Russian-speaking people.

Since the very moment, when the current political regime in Kiev came to power in 2014, Russian-speaking people and ethnic Russians were declared enemies of the state and ‘subhumans’ that must be neutralized or even killed in order to allow Ukraine to go forward on its ‘European way’. This policy faced an expected armed resistance leading to a civil war in the region of Donbass. Crimea evaded the bloodbath thanks to the involvement of Russian forces and the secession of the region to Russia.

In 2020, the ideas of ethnic cleansing of Russians and persecutions of the Russian-speaking population in the region of Donbass and Crimea still remained an integral part of the Ukrainian political mainstream and the ideology of various radical groups that receive direct financial, administrative support from the current regime and have access to weapons from the conflict zone.

The political process and constitutional reforms needed to de-escalate the situation in the east and grant autonomy to the DPR and LPR face strong resistance on the all levels of the governance system. Radicals attack independent journalists, bloggers, political activists, politicians and even people that visit the ‘wrong churches’.

On July 23, the house of Vitaly Shabunin, the head of the non-profit Anti-Corruption Action Centre, was set on fire. The Centre said it believed the arson was “an assassination attempt” targeting Shabunin and his family. The incident happened in the village of Gnidyn just outside Kiev.

On July 13, members of the “National Corps” political party (created on the basis of the “Azov Battalion” neo-Nazi armed group) attacked a house of the head of the opposition Shariy Party in Kharkov. According to the head of the party, Anatoly Shariy, the attackers were armed with firearms and injured at least 2 people. Earlier, on June 24, members of the “National Corps” attacked and beat an activist of the Shariy Party in the same city – Nikita Rojenko. After the attack, the man was in critical condition.

On July 26, Ukrainian radicals and supporters of the government-backed ‘independent’ Orthodox Church of Ukraine seized churches of the canonic Ukrainian Orthodox Church (Moscow Patriarchy) in the villages of Novojivotove, Zabolotsy in Volyn Region. Police and local authorities in fact support the seizure violating the people’s right to freedom of faith.

The aggressive minority of political and religious radicals, including open supporters of neo-Nazy-styled ideology, with help from the government terrorize the peaceful population. This situation is encouraged by Kiev and its Western backers.

During the past months, top Ukrainian officials regularly criticized the Minsk agreements, proposed to withdraw from them or revise them to meet the vision of the situation by the current regime. The core of the contradictions over the Minsk deal is simple. Kiev seeks to gain control over the border with Russia and the entire territory of the DPR and LPR before the implementation of the political part of Minsk. In practice, this will mean the surrender of the DPR and LPR to pro-Kiev forces, the ‘neutralization’ of DPR and LPR resistance by force (likely with direct help from NATO) and mass killings and terrorizing of local populations by pro-Kiev radicals. The DPR, LPR leadership and population are apparently not interested in this scenario. Russia, for which the advance of Kiev forces in eastern Ukraine will mean millions of refugees and a humanitarian catastrophe on its own border, also cannot allow this.

As to European backers of Kiev, they seem to be also not happy with attempts of the Poroshenko and then Zelensky administrations to speculate on the escalation scenario to gain additional funding and political support from the European Union. This is especially clear from actions of leaders of European states like France and Germany. Meanwhile, the European bureaucracy affiliated with the Washington establishment play into the hands of the Ukrainian ‘instigators of war’.

These forces are not interested in the settlement of the conflict in eastern Europe because they use it as a pressure point in their efforts to suppress the resistance of national states, which increased amid the crumbling dominance of globalists. These contradictions, especially taking into account the US dominance over the Ukrainian leadership, raise serious concerns about the real motivation behind the recent political maneuvers of the Zelensky administration. However, most likely, the explanation is even more complex.

Ukraine is experiencing a deepening crisis that came amid the decreasing direct financial support from its foreign backers. During the past years, ‘European partners’ already decreased their support to Kiev, which was fueling fires of war in the interests of its own corrupt system and the Washington establishment. The modern US, led by the Trump administration, is also not interested in any large-scale investments in Kiev adventures against Russia or funding the Ukrainian ‘economic miracle’ for propaganda purposes.

Taking into account the global economic crisis and the expected second wave of the coronavirus outbreak, it is unlikely that foreign support to Kiev will increase anytime soon. It will be a gift if the Ukrainian leadership continues receiving foreign support at least at the current level. Therefore, the Zelensky administration is forced to at least formally search for ways that would allow the country to reduce its economic needs. The de-escalation of the conflict in the east is one of such opportunity.

On the other hand, from the political point of view, the ceasefire is needed for Zelensky to at least temporarily stabilize his approval rating which is falling dramatically. He came to power thanks to peace-making slogans, promises to contain censorship, street violence, and battle corruption. However, none of these things have happened. Instead, Zelensky immediately turned into Poroshenko 2.0 and his administration funds Poroshenko-era paramilitary groups to use them against its opponents.

By supporting the ceasefire initiative, Kiev also tries to please European partners that have been pressuring the regime to finally making at least some actions in the framework of the Minsk format. At the same time, the Zelensky administration understands that any laws or amendments to the Constitution granting the LPR and the DPR real autonomy and defending rights of the local population will not pass the Parliament. Therefore, interests of the Washington establishment, not interested in the de-escalation, will be secured.

The situation in Ukraine will likely remain in a state of a stable instability until the presidential election in the United States. If President Trump keeps his post, the Ukrainian conflict will likely remain frozen with Kiev forced to make at least some steps to de-escalate conflict, overcome the crisis and guarantee its own survival. At the same time, if the Democratic establishment once again comes to power in Washington, the frozen conflict in eastern Ukraine will have increasingly high chances of turning into a hot war zone once again.

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HiaNd

new war = economic collapse

Антон С

Not only economic.) It’s the end of Kiev regime.

HiaNd

I do not understand what “economic collapse” means in your head?!

Let me try to explain:”economic collapse”..That is total bankruptcy of the country Conditions in which literally EVERY”regime” collapses !!. Where 1 egg costs few million rubles !
It is like Russia in 1999 just much worse. More like Wiemar Germany or Zimbabwe or U.S. in1930 at the height of the crisis.

Антон С

“Where 1 egg costs few million rubles!”

This has never happened. Month salary was over 1 million, but not 1 egg. Cost of mark in Weimar Germany was 1,4 trillion for 1 dollars on the peak.

HiaNd

The point was to clarify the meaning of the words “economic collapse” and not to argue about exact price of an egg. I have just said that to illustrate my point, obviously you are much better informed about Weimar Germany.

Антон С

“obviously you are much better informed about Weimar Germany”

Don’t underestimate yourself.) One simple fact is not enough to know whole history of Weimar Germany.

HiaNd

I “don’t underestimate”, I know what I know and I don’t have any problems with that, just like I have no problem to tell everybody and anybody that they are wrong when that is the case.
like every human being I do say stupid things I just try no to do it often.

Антон С

You’re too serious, it was a mild irony.

HiaNd

OK Anton sorry for failing to appreciate your sense of humor.
I wish I can be more relaxed, but I am not.

Assad must stay

ahahahhaah what do u expect when u have a puppet govt?

AM Hants

Back in 2014 you had the cauldrons. Leading to Merkel rushing to the Kremlin, where the NSA could not eavesdrop, begging for Russia to help release the NATO Forces, stuck in the cauldrons.

This led to Minsk II, on the condition that there would be no more ceasefires. Kiev ignored Minsk II and now want more ceasefires. Whilst most of us want a repeat of the cauldrons, owing to the fact Kiev have slaughtered too many of the people in Eastern Ukraine.

Now, Zelinsky, whose mentors are $oro$ and Kholomoisky, wants to play pretend diplomat. Not long after his special forces spoofed the Russian mercenaries in Belarus? Seriously?

Assad must stay

The good old days hahaha

Fog of War

Ukraine was supposed to collapse years ago, yet its still there.

rightiswrong rightiswrong

And the Nazis said they will take the LPRDPR back in 2014, and that they will be a part of the EU!

That’s never going to happen, and the US won’t keep funding the losers.

HiaNd

EU (Germany) is also funding them, they give them possibility to borrow the money they are incapable to pay back

rightiswrong rightiswrong

The EU do as they are told by the US, as always. That’s part and parcel of being a vassal state.

Антон С

“That’s never going to happen, and the US won’t keep funding the losers.”

Agree with first part, but not with second. It’s not big money, but good point to pressure on bigger Russia.

rightiswrong rightiswrong

They stopped funding Georgia, as soon as they realised they would not be getting a NATO base in the Black Sea.
Now, isn’t it about time the ethnic Russians of the border lands started to fight for Russia?
The only option they face, is the future presented in 1941.

HiaNd

Take look at the map and ask yourself:
is tiny Georgia comparable to the one of the biggest countries in Europe, Ukraine from geo-strategic point of view.

rightiswrong rightiswrong

Is Ukraine full of Ukrainians, or ethnic Russians?
Which parts of Ukraine can be counted on to provide anti Russian active forces, the Eastern parts, old Tsarist territory, or the Austro-Hungarian parts, or the PolishSlovak areas? If the Nazis had total control, then why send enforcement troops to Odessa, Kharkov

The last thing the US Army needs is another base surrounded by hostile natives, in Europe. Especially hostile ethnic Russians with access to anything they want to inflict casualties. The US hoped the Russkies would invade Ukraine ffs, letting them suffer the liberally funded Nazis guerrilla warfare.

If the US desperately wanted their troops in a Ukrainian cauldron, they would have sent them the day they elected Porkyshenko.
The US just wants the Russkies to have another Vietnam at home, permanently.

HiaNd

You ; have said “They stopped funding Georgia,……”
I was only talking about using Goerigia to compare it to Ukraine is not good example for obvious reasons of bigger importance of Ukraine
That is all !
Sorry, the rest I don’t want to comment since it was not something I was talking about.
Maybe that is something that you have talked with Anton…

rightiswrong rightiswrong

This is the internet, I don’t talk to anyone, and do you see me and Anton having a discussion about size?

If you don’t want to comment on something, then just don’t comment on it.
Save us all the bollox.

HiaNd

You mean your “bollox”?
If you did “talk to anyone”, why did you address your words to me than?!?

I just have commented that you can’t compare Georgia and Ukraine directly and have explained basically why I think that to be the case.
Instead of directly reacting on my own words you started to talk about things I didn’t mention and you have presented as if that was some kind of counter argument.
Which is absurd way to communicate !

So you IGNORING completely my comment start to talk about things I wasn’t talking about and on top you are pissed now and getting to be insolent?!!?
WTF is wrong with you?
If you are like that all the time don’t bother to talk to me please !

rightiswrong rightiswrong

No bother, no need for the long windbag about that.

Poppadop

You honestly think the Maidanites, who had tens of thousands of Ukrainians dodge the draft, would fight an indefinite guerilla war? Provoking open Russian troops into invading Ukraine was meant to be the world elites’ “invading Poland” moment, a Project for a New American Century “new Pearl Harbor.” This would allow the world elites to justify further anti-Russia warmongering like they did for the previous world wars against Germany and Japan.

In fact, the Danzig Massacres, Poland getting ethnic Germans killed is what provoked Germany’s invasion. Some people doubt this, but considering Poland is confirmed shipping military aid and “advisors” to Ukraine for killing ethnic Russians to provoke Russia, that is probably what happened.

rightiswrong rightiswrong

I said that is what the US hoped Russia would do, and yes, there would have been an anti Russian military conflict, supported by USNATO by illicit supplies to terrorist units.
The US has no wish to insert their troops for the same reason, they would be attacked by pro Russians with short supply routes to Russia.
Their already have been anti soviet campaigns funded by the CIA after WW2, the forest fighters of Ukraine and the Baltics, and they managed a limited campaign for a few years, so getting the Western Ukies, or Galicians to carry on with a long term campaign against Russian forces should they have entered Ukraine in 2014 was a certainty.

Poppadop

Wait, do you think the world elites want Cold War 2.0? A continuous Orwellian war with an ideologically similar “rival” like the War on Terror with the Wahhabists and Al-CIA-da? The Moscow Museum of the “Great Patriotic War” still has an American Studebaker US6 truck with a mounted Katyusha multiple rocket launcher that the Soviets received via the Lend-Lease Act military aid. It’s like their version of the Wahhabists’ Toyota technicals.

Or do you think the world elites want World War 3? A “real” war where the objective is regime change? These proxy wars are not leading to regime change; that should have been obvious from the Chechen Wars, the Russo-Georgian War, and the Syria War.

rightiswrong rightiswrong

Cold War 2, real war between nuclear powers is impossible by design, but practicable in the event of a mis-calculation, mistake or plan which has gone too far.

More chaos, more profits, more instability, more reason for major powers to move troops there, more money for the war sector, less money for civilians at home.
The Great Game continues.

Poppadop

That “Great Game” only works if everyone is playing it. Ever read Orwell’s “1984”? “The three [super-states’] philosophies are barely distinguishable, and the social systems which they support are not distinguishable at all. Everywhere there is the same pyramidal structure… worship of a semi-divine leader… continuous warfare… So long as [the super-states] remain in conflict they prop one another up.”

You see, RIW, this is why when US General George Patton wanted to finish the war against the Soviets, he got into a minor car “accident” and died. Then, excuses were made for years to avoid a real, regime change war against the Soviets until they got “their own” nuclear weapons, and that became the main excuse.

The world elites never truly wanted regime change against the Soviets; they were frenemies. Now that the Soviets are gone, Russia is returning to Christianity, and places like South Front, RT, Sputnik, etc. are waking people up to the “Great Game.” The elites needed regime change war against Germany for waking people up to the “international clique,” and they now need regime change war against Russia – nukes or no nukes.

rightiswrong rightiswrong

Life’s like that, same shit, different faces.

I think the US lead in nukes was more technical than quantitive after WW2 and before USSR detonated. The Yanks would have had to up production of plutonium, uranium to levels they obviously had no experience of at that time themselves.
A bit like how Donald tells us today how super duper their weapons are, and how great the new ones are.
The problem this time is that they don’t have jack shit more than they had during the 90s, lol.

rightiswrong rightiswrong

Animal Farm is my favourite, you can apply that to nearly every nation on Earth.

Greedy grasping people will always infest good ideas for their own ends.

Антон С

Tbilisi regime is the same that was under Saakashvili.

rightiswrong rightiswrong

Is that why Saakashvilli is on the run from the Georgians, or has NATO changed its opinion of declaring that Georgia will not be admitted to NATO?

El Mashi

You are lying. Troll.

Gary Sellars

Ukraine is on a continual drip-feed of credit from NATOista states. Without that lifeline they would have utterly collapsed.

In any case, they are a mortally wounded society with no real hope of salvation other than radical surgery and chemotherapy to remove the nationalists and their neo-nazi thugs from power.

cechas vodobenikov

failed state—-self defeating nazis where the Americans train and fund the nazi battalions

chris chuba

Hmm … this might be the one of the few ways in which a Biden Admin. will be worse than a Trump Admin. He will likely be more willing to send economic aid to prop up the Ukrainian regime. In this case, dollars are more lethal than arms to keep unrest going. Otherwise there is not much difference between Biden / Trump.

Rhodium 10

Ukraine is not collapse because Gazprom pay 2.9BM in gas transit fees…in exchange all west EU countries ( included Denmark) allow Nordstream2, except Beggar Puppets( Baltic&Poland)…in spite that Ukraine owes 3.2BM to Russia.

cechas vodobenikov

I do not celebrate the impoverishment of Ukraine; they have defeated themselves, depopulating the nation, alienating neighboring nations by disallowing Romanians, Hungarians, Russians to teach their own languages in schools…Hungary has already told Ukraine that they will oppose their entry to the EU and NATO

Gary Sellars

Agree completely except that i DO celebrate their downfall. Stupid people deserve what they get. FFS what were these dumb-fuck idiots expecting???

Gary Sellars

ROFL!! I cannot describe how happy I feel watching these stupid Ukropi rats and their fake nation circling the bowl! Enjoying the downfall of your enemies is one of lifes little indulgences :-)

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