U.S. To Dismantle At Tanf Base In Exchange For Iranian Withdrawal From Southern Syria: Media

Would be a good deal

Putin is slowly grinding down US ZIO power in Syria, Iranian troops represent the bishop on the ME chess board.

The Iranians won’t make a bad deal. The Americans are willing to make a bad deal, as long as it looks good on paper. They’ll try to “spin” it into a win. To the Americans, appearances are what matter.

Look at the Cuban Missile Crisis. Technically that was a win for the Soviets. They got a 2 for 1. We get rid of the missiles in Turkey and they get rid of the missiles in Cuba AND get a no invasion pledge. But the deal was spun in such a way that in the eyes of the world it was an American victory.

We’re after the same kind of deal here. Depends on how much the Iranians care about reality vs appearances.

Al-Tanf is important for one reason only. This is where the Saudi gas pipeline will cross from Jordan into Syria if it’s ever built. The Turks hold all the north west of Syria and the US hold all the north east. If you draw a line from Al-Tanf directly north to Al Tabqah on a map, and then imagine the US annexing the east of Syria from that imaginary line all the way to the Iraqi border, you can actually see the route the pipeline will take. Jordan gets the first cut of taxes, then the US, then the Kurds and finally Erdogan. Syria gets nothing because there’s no where left for the proposed Iranian pipeline to go, and as well, Syria loses most of it’s natural resources.
The Saudi gas pipeline is actually closer to being made a reality than most people think, that’s if they even know about it at all. If any of you are wondering what the hell this pipeline has to do with anything concerning Russia and Syria and their war against the US, or maybe even think it’s just old news and irrelevant to what’s happening in Syria, think again.
Russia’s oil and gas exports account for more than 55% of the country’s total revenue base, and from that 70% comes from the European market. This makes the European nations buying gas and oil heavily or totally dependent on Russian oil + gas, and gives Russia quite a lot of political influence with those countries as well as a good income stream. But it works both ways, Russia’s economy is also heavily dependent on the European market, and until now hasn’t had any competition to worry about. The Saudi’s have been engaged in a trade war with Russia for more than a decade now, they over produce and underprice their oil and gas [we’ve been enjoying those low fuel prices] and are driving themselves as well as Russia broke, or very close to it in the process. The Saudi’s have lost 150 billion over the last 3 years, and are down from a huge cash reserve of 600 bill to 450 now. 50 bill a year is huge and even though the Saudi’s have put fuel prices up to compensate, they’re still bleeding 50 bill or more a year, that’s only 9 years until they run out of cash if it keeps up at this rate, they really will be in the poo. They also have to pay back Trump 110 bill for the weapons they just bought, so that takes that 450 bill reserve down to 340 bill, 7 years to go.
Russia’s different though, Putin started trying to diversify Russia’s export revenue stream a decade ago and he’s been very successful at it, unlike the Saudi’s who have nothing but oil and can’t do a thing but sell oil. Putin also lowered Russia’s dependence on a lot of imported goods and services at the same time by encouraging domestic enterprise’s to take up the slack. Russia’s economy has been doing quite well despite all the US imposed sanctions [that are also costing and losing it heaps of cash], and unlike the Saudi’s could go on like this forever.
But if the US and the Saudi’s did manage to build this gas pipeline through Syria, and do get that cheap and plentiful gas to the European markets, the boot would end up on the other foot, it’s bye bye Russia, nothing will save them.
55% of Russia’s revenue comes from gas + oil and 70% of that comes from Europe, If the Saudi’s break into that market what do we know will happen. The Saudi’s will not only end up with half the market or more, they’ll also destroy the prices as well. This won’t hurt the Saudi’s economy it’ll actually help it, they’ll stop losing 50 bill every year and instead start making some to pay back the 110 bill to Trump.
Russia would lose at least 20% of it’s import revenue even if prices remained the same, but lower prices for gas could mean it would probably be higher, possibly as high as 30%, and a loss of more than 50% market share would make it even higher again.
I wonder what sort of weapons and research Russia could afford if it’s revenue dropped by 30%, I don’t think it would remain a super power for more than a decade if that were to happen. Maybe that’s why Xi Jinping is spending so much cash in Syria and Iran, he doesn’t want to lose Russia as a possible ally [at some time in the future], and is insuring the US and Saudi pipeline is never built.
If you’re thinking well what’s the difference between the Saudi pipeline and the Iranian pipeline, won’t they both do the same thing to Russia’s economy if either of them break into the European market, NO Iran will actually work with Russia to lift oil and gas prices and so will all the other oil producing countries like Venezuela, the Saudi’s will do the exact opposite.
There is one more important factor, the new agreement between China and Russia, this deal allows Russia to build a gas pipeline directly into China and deliver unlimited amounts of gas and oil. This will do 4 important things for Russia, 1 it will increase Russia’s export revenue dramatically, 2 it will make Russia less reliant on Europe for revenue, 3 it will insure China’s reliance on Russia for it’s energy supplies, but at the same time also make China’s reliance on unreliable energy sources less problematic, and 4 it will make the European countries that buy Russian gas, much more vulnerable to Russian influence, something the US is also totally opposed to. The Russians control the tap that turns their heaters on.
The war in Syria is all about the pipelines, nothing else. The west wins if the Saudi pipeline’s built and the Chinese and Russians win if the Iranian one’s built. Russia, Iran and Venezuela will all increase world fuel prices and they’ll all prosper like never before, and the Saudi’s will either have to follow suite, or go broke keeping their prices low at the behest of the US.
Let’s see if the US moves out of Al-Tanf, I can’t imagine it happening. If it does I’m totally wrong about how important the pipelines really are. But if they don’t move out, I’ll also predict the Russian’s will eventually use a nuke, and make sure no pipe can ever be built there, at least not for another several hundred years.