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DECEMBER 2021

U.S. Should Prepare For “Terrible 20s” Due To Failed Military Modernization

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U.S. Should Prepare For "Terrible 20s" Due To Failed Military Modernization

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The United States should prepare for a “hard time” in the 2020s, as its military modernization plans are, apparently, a complete failure.

This was outlined in a new report from Mackenzie Eaglen and Hallie Coyne of the American Enterprise Institute, who says the Department of Defense had best prepare for the reality of the “Terrible ’20s” ahead.

The entire report, 102 pages long, can be read here. [pdf]

“Policymakers and uniformed leaders are sleepwalking into strategic insolvency. If no action is taken, something will break and do so spectacularly,” the authors write. “There is no easy way out of this fiscal bind for the US military. Rather, now is the time for effective mitigation strategies, urgent worst-case scenario planning, hard choices, and political leadership.”

The authors totaled 28 modernization programs that were cancelled between FY2002 and FY2012, as the department constantly shifted funds towards the ongoing war on terrorism efforts instead of towards modernization.

Those programs included $81.415 billion in sunk costs, and while many of those programs did receive follow on efforts, the older programs “rarely significantly informed their successor programs.”

Future modernization challenges are broken down by service, and by two time period: fiscal year 2021-2025, and fiscal year 2026-2031.

U.S. Should Prepare For "Terrible 20s" Due To Failed Military Modernization

Click to see full-size image

U.S. Should Prepare For "Terrible 20s" Due To Failed Military Modernization

Click to see full-size image

U.S. Should Prepare For "Terrible 20s" Due To Failed Military Modernization

Click to see full-size image

U.S. Should Prepare For "Terrible 20s" Due To Failed Military Modernization

Click to see full-size image

The report also has some direct policy suggestions:

  • considerations of reduced mission sets;
  • develop new ways of working with Congress;
  • making sure current modernization efforts have upgradability to avoid a future spike in modernization efforts.

“This report is intended to force a confrontation with the unvarnished reality of how much it will cost to modernize our armed forces to protect the United States’ security in an era of intensifying competition with peer competitors,” the authors conclude. “While reasonable people may disagree about the judgments and calculations included herein (which we welcome the opportunity to discuss), the macro-level trajectory of our military’s degrading comparative strength is indisputable.

“Time and money are no longer on our side; too much of both have been wasted already.”

Still, the most significant recommendation is quite simple: spend more on modernization:

Increase Funding to 3–5% Real Growth. There’s no getting around that the modernization portion of the defense budget must still grow significantly for a number of years or the forces deployed each day around the world will lack adequate equipment to accomplish their mission. To address the strategy-budget gap created by years of anemic modernization accounts, Mattis testified in 2017 that the defense budget topline would require 3–5% real growth each year through 2023.

The report concludes with the following urge – that Washington needs to have a singular aim of what it wants for its military, and chaos should disappear.

“Most Importantly, Decide What the United States Wants from Its Military. The external security of the United States cannot be mortgaged for its domestic safety when both are necessary. Domestic threats and challenges such as pandemics, natural disasters, election security, and economic growth are crucial concerns that unquestionably deserve serious and concerted attention and engagement. However, addressing these priorities will neither solve nor mitigate the United States’ eroding competitive military advantage. As stated in the 2018 National Defense Strategy, “The Department of Defense’s enduring mission is to provide combat-credible military forces needed to deter war and protect the security of our nation.” The 2020 Democratic Party Platform argued that America “can maintain a strong defense and protect our safety and security for less.” This report finds this claim is simply not true. The 2017 Repair and Rebuild report argued that regaining technological superiority was not enough to ensure conventional deterrence in the future. Today, the US military is backed into a corner, increasingly investing to maintain the readiness of today’s force while facing the looming bow wave of the 2020s that has until now largely remained unaddressed and unattended. This report is intended to force a confrontation with the unvarnished reality of how much it will cost to modernize our armed forces to protect the United States’ security in an era of intensifying competition with peer competitors. While reasonable people may disagree about the judgments and calculations included herein (which we welcome the opportunity to discuss), the macro-level trajectory of our military’s degrading comparative strength is indisputable. Time and money are no longer on our side; too much of both have been wasted already.”

U.S. Should Prepare For "Terrible 20s" Due To Failed Military Modernization

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Ma_Laoshi

Muh moar munney–who didn’t see that coming…

johnny rotten

Two fundamental errors in this report, the Department of War [and not of Defense] fights wars to fight wars, with no intention of winning them but only making them last, wars cost taxpayers, but they are profitable for the MIC, it will be difficult if not impossible to detox the MIC from its only reason for existence, money, a lot of money.
The second mistake is that you cannot cure a disease with the same medicine that caused it, the money still theirs, the more money they call the more money in an endless loop.
The armies are one of the pillars of the nation, a glue that should be in function of moral cohesion, the nations are defended and supported to the extent that the army is the bearer of the values ​​on which the constitution is based, it is to it that it is take the oath, all this ended the day after the US was born, it could be said that they lasted too long, but only due to exceptional events and circumstances, after which nothing will be able to keep them together.

subhuti 2

Suggestion: Make more friends instead of creating more enemies.

HiaNd

If you ask US all their vassals are their “friends”.
They don’t have or need any other kind of “friends”.

MikeH

One would think the degradation of the US military would be of tremendous concern to Israel. Somehow they seem just fine syphoning off as much money as possible though.

HiaNd

It doesn’t men that they’re ignoring situation change (trumpeting around about that problem, would alert their enemies only)
So they are wisely silent….
Doesn’t mean that they are careless either.
Maybe they are just pragmatic opportunists that silently rob as much US subventions, “aid” money, stolen US know how – as long as they can….

MikeH

The first lesson in being a successful parasite is to not kill the host. Who else would be a benefactor to replace the US?

HiaNd

In Israeli eyes only alternative to US (rich enough and advanced in tech enough is EU ).
I don’t think that EU would be glad to play the same kind of sucker, sugar daddy.

verner

yeah but the EU is gonna foot the cost for the electric cable from europe via cyprus to israel. how did that come about – not a peep about it in the news until it’s a fact and even then it’s a bit on the quiet.

HiaNd

That’s nothing compering to what US spends on Israel every year
EU will not replace US in role of sugar daddy simply because nobody is that much stupid…

FlorianGeyer

The EU is in a mess though. It appears that ruling by edict from unelected freaks is not verry successful.

There are rumblings of general dissent all over Europe now, and all of this is due to the scamdemic fiasco.

HiaNd

Like all “unelected freaks”, being detached from problems of common mortals, for whom they pretend to be their electorate… They are NEVER “successful” because their purpose of political existence serves to themselves only.

FlorianGeyer

That’s always been true and control freaks never learn.
There are at least 2000 years of tyranny that prove that.

verner

but you miss the point -the jews can pay for the extension themselves, no reason why the taxpayers of the eu should foot the bill for anything jewish,
in particular at a time that the union is going to borrow some 700 billion € to secure that the union can get back on its feet coming out of the pandemic.

HiaNd

You misunderstood my words.
I was just stating fact’s. That doesn’t mean I support them.
I am not at all supportive of having parasitic Israel sucking anybodies blood.
I do not think that similar situation would be acceptable for EU-rope.
I think that Israeli perception of EU “friendly” attitude towards them is way too exaggerated and has nothing to do with reality.

Fog of War

That is unless you can jump hosts.

John Brown

They always drain their hosts to death. Go and read some history books.

Fog of War

Yet they always seem to find another one.

John Brown

With global media it will be much more difficult to hide what they are now hence the open censorship etc.

gryzor84

equivalent to asking them to drop hegemonic behavior and exceptionalism ==> not gonna happen in the coming decades. It’ll still be a long road before a whole new generation of policy-makers reach the halls of Congress and the WH and actually acknowledge that the US cannot be what it once was at the helm of a seemingly undying empire, and countless strategic and fiscal catastrophes will have been piled up before that.

John Brown

The collapse of the empire has begun.

gryzor84

““Time and money are no longer on our side; too much of both have been wasted already.””

*Cough* *cough* F-35 *cough* *cough*

Dick Von Dast'Ard

*Cough* * cough* DDG-1000 *cough* *cough*

gryzor84

ahahah indeed, how could I gorget the Zumwalt debacle man , thx xD

FlorianGeyer

That sounds like a nasty covid cough, Dick.
You must self isolate, and if it gets worse, have a zoom medical consultation.
IF you eventually need hospital treatment, its time pray :)

Dick Von Dast'Ard

Certainly is here now in the UK.
More likely to die in a NHS hospital than out of it through an infectious disease.

FlorianGeyer

You may not have seen this in the daily Telegraph.

http://www.thetruthseeker.co.uk/?p=229990

Lord Sumpton is a retired UK Supreme Court judge and an ‘establishment figure’.
The fact that the Daily Telegraph has printed this is evidence of a pushback against the current covid tyranny.

Bob

Two big ticket and hugely expensive Lockheed procurement projects of last decades – the F-35 and the Littoral Combat Ship have both proven expensive disasters. The Littoral ships are all but over, and after a decade of stating it was to big to fail, after the sheer scale of investment, the USAF has effectively announced in 2021 that the F-35 is a failure, and that an entirely NEW commission for a low-cost and reliable fighter is required to replace the workload of the aging F-16, one of the exact tasks the F-35 was conceptualized, and pitched, to achieve a full generation ago:

https://www.extremetech.com/extreme/320295-the-us-air-force-quietly-admits-the-f-35-is-a-failure

https://www.dailysabah.com/business/defense/100-million-f-35-quagmire-how-to-replace-aging-f-16s-again

Fog of War

The US is being setup to fail as it has outlived its usefulness to the ” controllers “. Its final purpose will be to engage in a destructive war irrelevant of whether it loses or not. The war will have many purposes, the main one being to eliminate its unpayable debt and to reset the Zio controlled monetary system for another 100 years or so. Based on their actions, China and Putin are fully on board with this .

JIMI JAMES

Russia and china are no part of the phaedo reserve system,it will be usa who will lose and eventually a new system based on factual weighted resources power on the future,not usa!
War,what fekn war? It would be over in world record time,this ain’t 1990s you know!

JIMI JAMES

When they serve the interests of the failed deep state (open soros society)and a host of other ungodly satanic prostitutiuon rorts that come with their demented cia scripted fkfests,this only proves they are (not the more responsable leaders) the prostitutes of the phaedo reserve,
next time any gimp rants or tries to accuse the just if anything for being more diplomatic than not,’
by god they will bear the full brunt of the wrath in the truth,to their shame,seens usa is all rigged:

The writings on the wall,ungodly satanic bots shall have no freedom,because the falsely accused!
I can live with the truth but can they,no? Use their flthy spoon,dig their grave for truth cares:
Stay safe:

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