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Turning Point Of Armenian-Azerbaijani War

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Turning Point Of Armenian-Azerbaijani War

Click to see the full-size image

On October 5, the Armed Forces of Azerbaijan supported by Turkey continued their large-scale offensive to capture the contested Nagorno-Karabakh region from Armenian forces.

Over the past days, Armenian forces have lost several important positions, including  the towns of Talish, Jabrayil and Mataghis. Currently, Azerbaijani forces are working to consolidate their gains and conduct artillery and air strikes on positions of the Armenians preparing for a further offensive.

Meanwhile, forces of the Armenian Nagorno-Karabakh Republic (the Republic of Artsakh) announced that they had carried out ‘powerful’ retaliation strikes on territory of Azerbaijan. Armenian sources insists that after yesterday’s strikes, several hundred thousand residents of different cities of Azerbaijan have been fleeing in panic to Baku.

The Armenian military calimed that Azerbaijan paid for the recent gains a heavy price. According to it, Armenian forces inflicted to the ‘enemy’ 3154 casualties and destroyed 368 armoured vehicles, 4 rocket launchers, 124 UAVs, 17 military planes and 14 helicopters.

The Armenian side emphasizes that Azerbaijani forces have been extensively bombing civilian targets, including the largest Karabakh city, Stepanakert.

Azerbaijani troops are in Talish:

A map ‘accidentally’ leaked by Armenian sources show that Azerbaijan made almost no gains (a pretty optimistic view):

Turning Point Of Armenian-Azerbaijani War

Click to see the full-size image

The ongoing Azerbaijani advance is not only supported by Turkey and involves Turkish military specialists, special forces and, according  to Aremnia, military equipment (like F-16s), but also became another case of the employment of Turkish-backed Syrian militants. According to Armenia, at least 4,000 militants were deployed from the Turkish-occupied northwestern part of Syria to Azerbaijan to support the attack on Karabakh. The concerns about the deployment of radicals were also expressed by France.

On October 5, Russia’s state-run news agency RIA reported citing own sources that at least 93 Turkish-backed militants had been killed since the start of the war on September 27. The report added that 450 more militants were deployed to the combat zone last weekend. This was reportedly the third batch of Syrian miltiants deployed. The total number of them in the combat zone was not provided.

Videos showing the presence of Turkish-backed Syrian militants in the combat zone:

Azerbaijan also claims that Armenain forces shell civilian targets in Azerbaijan:

The Armenian side also declares that it is indeed in the state of the military conflict with both Azerbaijan and Turkey. On October 5, Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan made a statement addressing his friends in Washington (that ‘accidentally’ remain silent). The Pashinyan official website reports the following:

Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan gave an interview to The New York Times, in which he referred to the war unleashed by Azerbaijan against Nagorno-Karabakh. Below is the NYT article about the interview.

“As Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan talked over the phone on Thursday with President Trump’s national security adviser, he raised a delicate issue: Why is nothing being done to stop a longtime United States ally, Turkey, from using American-made F-16 jets against ethnic Armenians? Mr. Pashinyan’s call to the national security adviser, Robert O’Brien, followed an eruption of heavy fighting in and around Nagorno-Karabakh.

Mr. Pashinyan said in a telephone interview that the conflict has taken on a far more dangerous dimension because of Turkey’s direct military intervention in support of Azerbaijan.

The conflict has set off alarms about the risks of a wider war and put the United States, with its large and politically influential Armenian Diaspora, in the uncomfortable position of watching Turkey, a vital NATO ally, deploying F-16 jets in support of Armenia’s enemies.

“The United States,” Mr. Pashinyan said, “needs to explain whether it gave those F-16s to bomb peaceful villages and peaceful populations.” He said that Mr. O’Brien had “heard and acknowledged” his concerns.

Mr. Pashinyan declined to say whether Armenia might be ready to surrender any territory to Azerbaijan as part of a possible peace settlement, insisting that this was not up to him but a matter for the leaders of Nagorno-Karabakh.

For Armenia, Mr. Pashinyan said, the current fighting, which began Sept. 27 after months of rising tensions, poses an “existential threat” because of the role of Turkey, whose precursor, the Ottoman Empire, killed an estimated 1.5 million Armenians at the end of World War I. The U.S. Congress and many countries have declared the killings “genocide,” a wording that Turkey strenuously rejects.”

Armenian forces are in action:

In own turn, Azerbaijan demonstrates that it is adamant in its aim to solve the ‘Nagorno-Karabakh question’ by military means. This approach was once again officially declared by Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev on October 4 and is fully supported by Azerbaijan’s main ally, Turkey.

Azerbaijani media also claimed that Ilham Aliyev demanded French President Emmanuel Macron to apologize for his words about the arrival of Syrian militants in Azerbaijan and their participation in the conflict. The phone call between the leaders took place on October 4 and they discussed the situation in Karabakh.

Azerbaijan also reported on October 5 that Armenia had started striking targets in Azerbaijan from own territory. If this is confirmed, this would mean that the Armenian-Azerbaijani war will have all chances to expand from the territory of the contested Nagorno-Karabakh region to the entire Armenian-Azerbaijani contact line. The Azerbaijani defense ministry satement:

On October 5 in the morning, the technical means of the radar systems of the Air Defense Forces of Azerbaijan recorded the launch of rockets fired at Azerbaijan from the starting positions in the Jermuk, Gafan and Berd regions of Armenia.

For several days, the enemy, pinned down along the entire frontline, has been systematically launching missile strikes from the territory of Armenia against the densely populated regions of Azerbaijan and civilian infrastructure on the territory of Azerbaijan.

At the same time, the ministry of defense of Armenia denies the fact of shelling the territory of Azerbaijan from Armenia and declares that it was fired from our occupied lands.

Such irresponsible and criminal actions of Armenia purposefully force Azerbaijan to retaliate.

We present a video confirming the launch of rockets from the territory of Armenia.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7-tTkrizfa0

After the first  week of war, it is evident even for supporters of Armenia that the Turkish-Azerbaijani bloc has been taking an upper hand in the battle against Armenian forces. The decisive role belongs to the air dominance and the numerical superiority of the Azerbaijani side.

Turning Point Of Armenian-Azerbaijani War

Click to see the full-size image

After the first week of war, it is evident even for supporters of Armenia that the Turkish-Azerbaijani bloc has been taking an upper hand in the battle against Armenian forces. The decisive role belongs to the air dominance and the numerical superiority of the Azerbaijani side. The only current advantage of Armenian forces is the low quality of Azerbaijani infantry and Turkish-backed Syrian militants involved in the ground advance as well as the low planning and management skills of the ground phase of the Azerbaijani operation. Azerbaijani infantry and motorized units marching towards fortified positions of Armenians become an easy target for counter-attacks, artillery and missile strikes. This reminds the approach employed by Turkey in Syria and Libya, when Ankara was sending waves of cannon fodder (consisting of members of various militant groups) to capture positions of the ‘enemy’, while Turkish special forces, artillery and air power were doing the main job.

Meanwhile, the Armed Forces of Armenia do not employ all the variety of means and measures that they have to fight back the advancing Azerbaijani military. Despite the loud propaganda about the Armenian key role in resisting to the ‘terror alliance’ of Turkey and Azerbaijan, the Pashinyan government has no political will to recognize the Nagorno-Karabakh Republic and go for a full-scale war to defend Armenian population there. Thus, the participation of the official Armenian military in supporting forces of the Nagorno-Karabakh Republic (it remains a de-facto independent state with own military forces) are limited as of now. This raises reasonable questions regarding the real goals of the Pashinyan government. Experts say that in fact the only what it aims is to achieve goals of his government’s foreign patrons in the Washington establishment thus losing Karabakh, using this as a pretext to break the remaining ties with Russia and push the country towards the integration with NATO.

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