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Turkish War On Syria. Bluff Or Reality?

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Turkish War On Syria. Bluff Or Reality?

Turkey will take the Idlib matter into its own hands and the military operation in northwestern Syria is simply a “matter of time”, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan declared on February 19. Erdogan said that Turkey is not satisfied with talks on the matter with Russia, and it will not leave the region to “the Assad regime and its backers.” He recalled that only a few days left until the end of February, the deadline given by Ankara to Syrian forces to stop operations against Idlib armed groups. If the Syrians do not withdraw, Turkey promised to attack and push the Syrian Army back from the areas cleared from militants. Erdogan’s “last warning” came as Turkish media outlets were broadcasting news showing how columns of Turkish troops and vehicle were moving towards the border with Syria. However, did Turkey really deployed enough forces to deliver a devastating blow to the Syrian military and do not pay a heavy price?

In the framework of the Astana agreements, Turkey established 12 observation posts. As the Syrian Army was advancing into Idlib, Ankara created a plethora of additional military positions in a failed attempt to stop the collapse of militants’ defense. These efforts binged the total number of Turkish military installations in the region up to 27.

Judging from various footage, there are between one dozen and two dozen soldiers, as well as 4-6 military vehicles at every post located within the areas currently controlled by the Syrian government. The recently created posts are much stronger and can be described as real military positions with battle tanks, howitzers, mortars and fortified structures.

The estimated total number of military equipment deployed by the Turkish Armed Forces in Idlib stands at 3,000. Since February 2nd, Turkey deployed 2,315 trucks and military vehicles, as well as 7,000 soldiers. Meanwhile, Turkey has positioned approximately 30,000 troops along the Syrian border in case of an escalation.

The equipment and weapons that are being delivered include armored trucks, MRAPs, armored personnel carriers, battle tanks, ATGMs, various artillery pieces and rocket launchers. Army troops are reinforced with a notable number of special forces.

According to pro-opposition sources, there are over 100,000 members of various groups, predominantly Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham in Idlib. These groups are already actively taking part in the fight against the Syrian Arab Army. However, the real mobilization potential demonstrated by these factions during the recent battles does not exceed 10,000-20,000.

In comparison, during Operation Euphrates Shield, in which Turkey struggled greatly, it deployed approximately 8,000 soldiers, in addition to approximately 11,000 Syrian “opposition” fighters, against 7,000 ISIS militants. This operation became widely known for large casualties among Turkish soldiers and proxies, as well as a large number of military equipment, including Leopard 2A4 battle tanks, lost during the battle of al-Bab.

Another example is operation Olive Branch that involve around 6,000 Turkish troops, and 20,000 Turkish-backed fighters, against approximately 20,000 Syrian Democratic Forces and allied fighters. However, Kurdish armed groups did not engage Turkish-led forces in an intense open or urban fighting and opted to retreat from the region after weeks of artillery and air bombardment. Since then, Ankara has been trying to consolidate control over the area and put an end to constant attacks on its forces from the remaining YPG cells.

Finally, Operation Peace Spring, which began in late 2019, reportedly involved 15,000 Turkish troops and 14,000 members of proxy groups. It also went without a significant open resistance from Kurdish groups and was frozen with the Syrian Army and the Russian Military Police deployed in the area.

It also would be useful to note that both ISIS and Kurdish formations targeted by Turkey were outnumbered in the area of operations, suffered from a lack of modern weapons, heavy military equipment and artillery, and had no means and measures to combat the Turkish Air Force. No intense fighting took place in large urban areas. Despite this, the aforementioned operations became a real challenge for Turkey and its proxy groups.

Therefore, it is unlikely that the Turkish forces currently deployed in Idlib and northwestern Syria will be enough to turn into reality Erdogan’s threats and promises. So, Turkey should hurry up and increase its military group in the area by several times, or Erdogan supporters should start preparing for March 1, the day when the dreams about the swift and powerful Turkish victory over ‘Assad forces’ will be broken by the reality.

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  • Smith Ricky

    Going against Russia is suicide.

  • ©igare☘☘e👽Sm⚽️k🚬ng🦉Man️🎲
  • Lupus

    Good article thx SF

  • Karen Bartlett

    All the Turkish tanks, etc. make excellent targets for Russian and Syrian warplanes!

  • ©igare☘☘e👽Sm⚽️k🚬ng🦉Man️🎲

    Has this Syrian / Russian operation in Idlib got a name already ?

    If not I suggest operation ”Run turkey Run” !
    (Turkish army on the run) 😂

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/4fc46d4f08091216c5d2c3e59827a218db8845441f966c2a6d43eabbb90cf444.gif

  • Constellation 2023

    Turkey’s going to kick the terrorist Assad regime and its militia out of Idlib. Wait for it.

    • Tim Williams

      should I wait for Easter, Memorial Day, July 4th … when ?

    • You can call me Al

      The only terrorist in this World is your lot, the US of A.

  • Mehmet Aslanak

    Trouble is that, in an all out war, Turkey would easily occupy down to Damascus & bring Assad to international criminal court for being addicted to kill his own people.

    • ©igare☘☘e👽Sm⚽️k🚬ng🦉Man️🎲
    • Tim Williams

      TURK forces would be obliterated … who are trying to fool other than yourself ?

      You could not even successfully capture Gilligan’s Island in 74′

    • FlorianGeyer

      Fool.

    • Carsten

      And an all out war you talk about the tourism places in Turkey would not spared out I believe. A few singel bombs without much damage would be an information desater. Tourist will not com to Turkey anymore, Lira will decline and Turkey would be insolvent while Erdoga loses another elections.

      • Tim Williams

        tourists are already avoiding the toilet

    • Caesar

      Which world do you live in?
      Any idea of the current very negative image of Turkey in the world under Erdogan?

    • ALEPPO327

      Last time someone tried things like that he ended up starting world war II
      Not to mention that in an all out war Hezbullah and iraqi PMU would join as well.

      • Ivan

        On top of that in an all out war all the Kurds will gladly join Russia and Syria. I wouldn’t be surprised if Putin offers them 1/3 of the territory of Turkey for their own state as long as they move from Syria, Iraq and Iran. Those countries would be extremely happy with the deal too.

    • You can call me Al

      You are still a useless turd I see.

    • Ishyrion Av

      You still don’t get it. A direct war with Russia will end Turkey state existence. And this is the direction of events now.
      And I can’t even say I’m sorry!

  • ©igare☘☘e👽Sm⚽️k🚬ng🦉Man️🎲
  • ypovalkanios_katimas

    without USA they wont move. They never did

  • Tim Williams

    the madman of ANKARA is holding nothing but joker cards in his hand

    https://twitter.com/WithinSyriaBlog/status/1230577285981462529

    • Jake321

      You do know that that means he has an unbeatable hand since joker cards are wild?

  • Kananda

    Where is the little big invitater of turks in Syria???

  • Boxman

    Really, other than the inconvenience of disrupting some oil pipeline and arms contracts (which wouldn’t be the end of the world for Turkey), what’s to stop Erdogan from going all out? The Russian detachment in Syria is quite vulnerable; a concerted air attack with F-16’s, cruise missiles and drones would overwhelm Russian air defenses. The Turks have the #’s for this. On the ground the situation is far worse.

    Short of using tactical nukes, the Russians cannot win a military fight with the entire Turkish armed forces. They share no land border, neutralizing Russia’s main advantage. Russia can only inflict limited pain on Turkey w/conventional air and naval power.

    Erdogan could attack, wipe out the Russians in theater, and then just roll over the SAA and xarvebout a permanent chunk of Idlib to become their so-called “Safe Zone”. This must be tempting for Erdogan as he’d come off as the tough guy that defeated Putin. And we know what an idiot Erdogan is…

    • Tim Williams

      LOL

    • Jake321

      But Putin might just call Trump and warn him that if he didn’t stop Erdogan, a copy of the Kremlin’s video of Daddy Dearest schtupping an underage Ivanka would be forwarded to the DNC Headquarters.

      • roland

        For once I agree with you

    • Concrete Mike

      And the russian navy is supposed to just sit by and watch?

      Cant ignore all these kalibrs.

    • roland

      What sort of missile long medium and short range capabilities does turkey have because the Russians have excellent capabilities in that area think about it they have the capability to wipe out the 30000 Turkish troops stationed on the border if they want to remember those cruise missiles they sent into Isis military camps they were devestating to the Isis cause

  • TTdr

    Why is Turkey army inside Syria illegally without invitation? UNSC should sent in peace force to repel Turkish aggression. But US, UK & Fr won’t allowed because its a USNato mission, where they are also illegal inside Syria stealing oil.

  • Boxman

    Maybe Erdogan wants to bleed his military white as revenge for the coup and to keep the soldiers forever occupied with one war or another. Too busy to even think about pulling another coup.

    If so, a strong Turkish attack is coming. Better get ready as this would be far bigger than any previous attack.

    • Tim Williams

      Only takes one person to shoot him … it’s coming very soon

      • Jake321

        Same with Assad. Me? I’d cheer for a twofer!

  • Jake321

    Assad, Erdogan, Putin, Trump…what a rouges gallery in a cat fight. Islamist Sunnis and Islamist Shi’a killing each other off. Israel wiping out Iranian facilities and Iranian generals with impunity…pass the popcorn…

  • You can call me Al

    You do this Edry and you fight for the Jews, you dumb piece of shit.

    • Jake321

      Really? If so, I might have to like the SOB.

      • roland

        He’s right despite public rhetoric isreal and turkey are allies

    • Concrete Mike

      I agree with what your saying. Its very obvious, a common rebuttal is refugees.

      Would you agree that turkey has weaponized refugees?
      Kinda explain their mingling in Libya as well.

  • CarloS

    Bluff

  • MakinaKafa

    Washington wants to break the relations between Ankara and Moscow .. The current situation in the region only serves to the benefit of the US and Israel .. The US is two-faced, and can never be trusted .. The only way to resolve the Idlib crisis is direct communication between Damascus and Ankara.

    The primary reason of Turkey being in Syria must be the destruction of the separatist, terrorist PKK/YPG .. Co-operation between Turkey, Syria, and Russia will end terrorism and American/Israeli plans in the region.

    Turkey’s priority in Syria should not be Idlib .. The current situation in the region is mostly the result of President Erdoğan’s personal ambitions .. That’s why he can’t act like a statesman and shake hands with President Assad again .. But at the same time, he doesn’t mind meeting with the Zionist lobbies when he visits the US.

    Idlib is Syrian territory, and Syrian Army can not be blamed for trying to liberate own territory .. But because of this, Turkish soldiers are dying for nothing .. Turkish military should not be the protector of Muslim Brotherhood remnants and other radical militants.

    • roland

      The trouble with what your saying is ergodan does not want to end terrorism or go against isreali American plans in the region he’s one of them ergodan is a freemason and Zionism is just an offshoot of Freemasonry the Muslim brotherhood also were created by Freemasonry

  • Xanatos

    I’m betting its real.
    Erdogan is easily bribed, and I bet there’s at least $25 billion thrown his way from Saudis to attack.

    Isreali Media is predicting turkey will attack, and isreal will help with their own air strikes.

    • abuqahwa

      Agreed – I fear that Turkey is preparing for a major ground offensive – ongoing re-inforcements have been entering and deploying across NW Idlib and into the so-called Observation Posts right down to T9 and T10 in northern Hama, with impunity – don’t forget Qatar with unlimited billions to fund their ally Turkey

  • abuqahwa

    The relative balances of military forces and deployments on the ground are just one aspect – in reality political-strategic imperatives control and determine what Syria can or cannot do to defend ihe country. So far Turkey has been able to invade, occupy, garrison and re-inforce ALL of northern Syria west of Euphrates with impunity, to create and directly support terrorist Islamic gangs across all Iblib, to invade and occupy NE Syria (Hasakah and Raqqa border zones), to shoot down RuAF fighter A/C etc.. etc.. with ZERO blowback. SF correctly notes that Syrian defenses in Afrin, al Bab, NW Idlib were weak or non-existent either because SAA had long lost control and/or PKK/YPG stupidity thinking USA would somehow “deter ” Turkish aggression. The brutal reality is this : Neither Russia, nor Iran, nor Syria has been able to directly confront Turkish forces on the ground, exactly as neither Russia, nor Iran, nor Syria can or will dare to defend against the naked agression, repeated, by US,UK or Israel. How many times has Israel attacked Syria with ZERO reaction from Syria and why : Simple answer NATO just itching for an excuse to launch all-out air war on Syria and Syria knows this. Meantime IF Turkey actually mounts a major ground offensive against SAA be sure that all NATO will fall in behind Turkey – the confrontation line will firm up, Syria will be the meat in the sandwich. Never underestimate your enemy.

    • Willing Conscience (The Truths

      Thanks for some sanity, the reality of the situation is exactly as bad as you say it is.

    • Ishyrion Av

      NATO will never not fall in behind Turkey. Maybe you talk about US.
      But they won’t do anything else than rhetoric because Turkey pissed them off too.
      As for the great successes of the Turkish army, until now they only took place against kurds.
      While SAA is a different cookie.
      As we will see.

  • Ivan

    As much as I hate the Turkish army and Erdogan we have to admit that both Putin and the Syrians spare some guilt in the situation. Firstly Putin allowed the Turks to invade the Kurdish area of Afrin in order to get their and Turkish support, secondly he invited them in Idlib. Of course the Turks grabbed the opportunity. On Syrian side acknowledging the Armenian genocide despite being the right thing from moral perspective added oil into the fire of the Turkish anger. I surely hope that the Turks do not go into was as this will definitely lead to World War III. Putin, Lavrov and Shoigu will not back down.

    • abuqahwa

      Well, I hope you are right and Russia does stand up to Turkey – but so far Turkey has had a free hand

  • Willing Conscience (The Truths

    Since Erdogan’s been directly involved in the Syrian conflict he’s only ever bluffed once, and that was with NATO and it didn’t work, which means all the threats he’s ever made concerning Syria he’s backed with force, all except for one, the NATO/US actually called his bluff and he backed down.

    “Turkey is not blackmailing NATO with its rejection of a defence plan for the Baltics and Poland, and has full veto rights within the alliance, a Turkish security source said on Monday ahead of a NATO alliance summit in London.
    Reuters reported last week that Turkey was refusing to back a NATO defence plan for the Baltics and Poland until it received more support for its battle with the Syrian Kurdish YPG militia, which it views as a terrorist organisation.”
    https://www.haaretz.com/middle-east-news/turkey-not-using-baltics-defense-plan-to-blackmail-nato-for-support-in-syria-1.8216521

    So NATO is the only entity that Erdogan’s tried to bluff over the last 2 to 3 years, he balked in the end and failed with them but he’s come good on all his other threats against Assad, Russia, and the EU. He’s ALWAYS DONE EXACTLY WHAT HE THREATENED TO DO, EVERY SINGLE TIME with them, that’s telling us a story all by itself, and it’s not one the Russian Turkish alliance fans will want to hear, but the Turkish NATO alliance fans will be wetting their pants now.

    • abuqahwa

      Agreed

    • roland

      Erdogan’s a freemason the Scottish Rite that should tell you why he’s going so hard on Syria Freemasonry and its offshoot Zionism need assets in syria because if Assad takes back Idlib a large portion of the middle east will be free from to put it bluntly satanists

      • Willing Conscience (The Truths

        I personally attribute Erdogan’s successes to his involvement with the Muslim Brotherhood.

        • roland

          Geuss what the info im getting is the Muslims brotherhood was set up by freemasons and that’s a worry because that means those fuckers also control a large swathe of Islam I am coming to the realisation that the taking out of the isreali state won’t change things much if that ever happens that is

          • Willing Conscience (The Truths

            That’s something I’ve never heard before, I wonder if you could perhaps link me some info, I’d like to check it out.

          • roland

            First read it on VT but I used to believe it was set up by British intelligence but it does make a lot of sense if you think about all these groups which people believe are running the world seem to be connected by the ancient Babylonian gods no shit one of the most powerful forces in the world today is a man with tits and a goat head this guy is one of the evil Babylonian gods they all worship also Moloch this guy is meant to be the real deal not a fallen angel out for revenge but an evil god from way back

          • Willing Conscience (The Truths

            Thanks.
            So that’s when the LGBTQI organization really started, that’s where the Jewish Pharisees first got their inspiration and passed it onto the Freemasons.
            Moloch as a God was probably a gay God I’d suspect, so it’s time for some research, thanks for the info.

          • roland

            They seem to like anything that is a corruption of human beings and cutting your dick off and slapping a pair of tits on yourself is a major corruption of the human body

          • Willing Conscience (The Truths

            I don’t care what they do to themselves, it’s what they’re doing to children that upsets me the most, suicide rates in pro LGBTQI countries are incredibly high now.
            Putin halved the Russian suicide rate back in 2006 just be introducing anti LGBTQI legislation, it forbid LGBTQI material being forced down children’s throats, Trump’s been trying to do the same thing in the US, and surprisingly the msm hate these 2 men more than any others, coincidence?

  • don

    If Erdogan goes all out Russia, Iran and Syria must respond. Iraq also must respond. Greece must respond, Armenia must respond. Bulgaria must respond. France will do very little, Germany will do nothing. Who else can Syria count on? Who can Syria count on militarily? The Kurds will continue to play their slimy traitorous role. So who else will step forward?

  • Wegan

    Well, so far it’s not working very well. Every time the SAA wants to advance they advance. Seems like the resistance offerd by the Jihadists and the Turks is not that strong.

  • Boxman

    I’d sure like to know what’s really going on out there. I heard the Turk military itself (not proxies) got bombed by RuAF and there was no counterattack. I’m picturing Turkish F-16’s nervously backing off and not engaging Russian SU-24’s as they bombed Turkish troops on the ground. I’m picturing there might have been some SU-35’s up there, bristling with air to missiles and locked onto all the Turkish jets. What a crazy situation and god bless the people out there fighting the good fight right now, not knowing if full scale war is about to break out at any moment. I can’t imagine facing the Turks after all they’ve already been through; this new nightmare after those desperate years of ISIS and the outcome so much in doubt. After all that, to now face this Turkish horde. I know the Syrians and their allies will bear down and fight like hell despite their war weariness. They will not break now. But I feel for them.

    • roland

      Apparently the Russians gave ergodan a list of the exact whereabouts of all Turkish human and military assets in Idlib and ergodan realised that Russia could neutralize them if need be so ergodan has then ran to trump to see if the Americans can supply him with a decent air defence system to try and break the Russians hold over the sky’s of syria

  • Mehmet Aslanak

    That’s why you SF guys were banned from primary search engines on the net. All you do is Russian propaganda. Neglecting the fact that Assad is killing his own people & should be brought to international court of justice in Hague. Putin doesn’t care about Assad as long as the Russian naval & air base are allowed in Syria.

    • Ishyrion Av

      I think Erdo is killing his own people. Turkish Kurds are Turkish citizens too.
      I think Erod is jailing his own people. How many thousands were put in jail by the freaked president during the “coup”?
      I think US is killing Syrian people – take a look at the “liberated” Raqqa (by US) and compare it with Aleppo, liberated bu Assad.
      As for Assad himself, do you have any proof he is killing his own people, other than MSM and Turkish puke?
      You see, is easy to deal with people like you because you don’t think, you don’t search for facts, you don’t search for truth. You only glorify the not so glorious Turkish state, no matter what will happen.
      And if all Turks are brainwashed like you, then is no loss for what will come soon over Turkey.

    • Saint Jimmy (Russian American)

      Oh shut the fuck up. You’re supporting foreign religious nuts who kill and rape. The world sees what a moral sewer Turkey has become under its fascist dictator. No one – world-wide – supports Turkey and its Wahabi death squads. Absolutely no one except a few corrupt corporate press types and inbred, out of touch UK and US elites.

      The idiot you put in power in Turkey has been duped by the US and Israel into making a huge mistake that is needlessly wasting lives, including the lives of Turkish boys who have no stake in controlling Syria. Now, your little coward of a leader gets a bloody nose in an impossible situation and goes crying to his mommy (Trump) asking for help. Well, as an American, I’ve got news for you, oh great Sultan, help isn’t coming. Good luck. Once the Turkish casualties rise rapidly during the next meaningless attack, don’t be surprised if elements within your own country who still have some sanity take matters into their own hands and depose your delusional “Sultan”.

    • roland

      How is he killing his own people the syrians and the Russians have a pretty good record of avoiding civilian casualties they could take Idlib in a week or two of intense air and missile attacks but they won’t do that because they are mindful of civilian casualties they will do it the slow hard way house to house fighting which means they will lose a lot of soldiers in the process but preserve a lot of civilian life

    • cechas vodobenikov

      another idiot turk fake psychoanalyst—I suspect the Kurds disagree w your genocidal hypocrisy

  • adzsiam

    The only way the Turks can save face is to reinforce the militants with a sizeable military force, with the blessings and support of the US and allies. Then taking on the Russians, SAA and Iranian allies in a short and sharp engagement stands a better chance. Otherwise, Edrogan can just bark as loud as he wants.

  • Duc Palatine

    It only takes one bullet to end the syrian war, one shot into a certain turks head would do it.

  • cechas vodobenikov

    the genocidal turks have practiced amerikan duplicity for centuries…Russia has called
    Erdogan’s bluff

  • digital82711

    Putin will be now known to the Turks as Vlad the Impaler!