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JUNE 2023

Turkish Risk Investments In Local Conflicts And Prospects Of Armenian Counter-Offensive In Karabakh

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In early November, the Azerbaijani-Turkish advance in the directions of the Lachin corridor and the town of Shusha in the Nagorno-Karabakh region slowed down.

The main factors are the fierce resistance of Armenian forces, the complicated terrain, deteriorating weather conditions and overextended communications that run through recently captured territories, where Armenian sabotage units are still able to deliver regular attacks. 9 villages, the capturing of which Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev announced recently, are in fact located inside the territory captured by Azerbaijani forces earlier. This showcases the lack of progress of Baku’s forces in the recent battles.

Commenting on this situation, Armenian sources argue that right now Yerevan has been preparing a powerful counter-attack to push the Azerbaijanis out of the south of Karabakh. The only factor that allegedly stops Armenia from such a move right now is the commitment of the Armenians to the reached ceasefire agreements that Baku blatantly violates.

Meanwhile, the Armenian side continues to regularly release updates about the losses of Azerbaijan in the conflict. The Azerbaijani military allegedly lost 10 UAVs, 21 armoured vehicles, and 103 soldiers in recent clashes. While the high casualties of the sides are not a secret and widely confirmed by visual evidence regularly appearing from the ground, the claims that the Turkish-Azerbaijani bloc somehow lost the strategic initiative in the war are at least overestimated. Azerbaijani artillery, combat drones and even warplanes still regularly pound fortified positions, manpower and military equipment of the defending forces. The Armenians do not have enough means and measures to protect its supply columns and manpower from regular and intense airstrikes.

As of November 3, Azerbaijani forces supported by the Turks and Turkish-backed Syrian militants are still deployed within striking distance of Lachin and Shusha. The loss of any of these points may mark the collapse of the entire Armenian defense in the area. Any large Armenian counter-attack, if it does not deliver a rapid and devastating blow to the Turkish-Azerbaijani forces, will likely not allow to achieve a strategic success. Instead, it will uncover the existing Armenian units and increase the number of casualties from air and artillery strikes. The dominance in the air also means an advantage in reconnaissance and target accusation. In these conditions, small regular counter-attacks mostly aimed at disturbing the advancing Azerbaijani-Turkish units, and undermining their efforts to secure the newly captured positions, look more likely. Despite the lack of notable Azerbaijani gains in recent days, the Armenian defense is still in crisis and, if Ankara and Baku succeed in securing communications and regrouping their forces, the new push towards the Lachin-Shusha-Stepanakert triangle seems to be inevitable.

The diplomatic attempts to de-escalate the conflict have so far led to little progress as Turkey and Azerbaijan feel themselves too close to the desired military victory. President Aliyev wants to write his name down in history as the leader that returned Nagorno-Karabakh to Azerbaijan, while his Turkish counterpart Erdogan sees himself as the sultan of the New Ottoman Empire, pretending be the leader of the entire Turkic world and even wider – of all the muslims in the Middle East, Caucasus and Central Asia.

The entire Turkish foreign policy of previous years was a policy of aggressive advances, confrontations and raising bets. This led to particular diplomatic and economic problems on the international scene and undermined the Turkish national economy. However, it looks like the Turkish leadership believes that the potential revenue of turning the Neo-Ottoman and pan-Turkic declarations into a hard reality will generate revenue of such a scale that it would allow to compensate for existing tactical difficulties. Therefore, the Turkish-Azerbaijani stance towards the further confrontation in Karabakh is not something surprising.

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Laurent Parodi

Russia has been cristal clear. Armenia is hit Russia will come in.


Azeri success has been due to drones that provide a two fold purpose:

1. To attack ground targets, fixed or mobile. 2. To direct the artillery strikes by providing precise target info or through laser illumination.

Russian indirect support of EW, and better use of shoulder fired missiles would render the drone threat non existent. Armenia has to adapt its forces to battlefield reality and even consider using Suk 30 to look down and shoot drones using their 30MM cannons.

Rhodium 10

Armenia army are missing…they only provide equipment to NK army to replace losses…but nothing more!…they could ask for new Verba Manpads with small mobile radar mounted in a tripod..and Hermes rockets with Glonass guide and 200km range…or Russian loitering drones ZALA Aero…..but if Armenia lose NK Pashinyan will blame Russia and they will have to expel them and Ask for join to NATO and EU….


Russia does not have to do anything directly, they do not care about the Turkish shenanigans and Islamic jihadis in the Caucus area, they can eliminate the Azeri drone threat by deploying Krasukah EW platform on their base in Armenia, jamming everything in the Caucus.

Rhodium 10

They did it when AZ sent drones to Yerevan and hours after 2 Harop drones change the course and crashed in Georgia…

Le Gros Roger

Interesting! Any source or link about that?


Something along those lines https://asiatimes.com/2020/10/russia-knocking-turkish-drones-from-armenian-skies/ This one in Armenian, exposing Turkish flying objects with NATO codes. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XhLxuF5uXc8&feature=youtu.be Upon dispatching them on Azerbaijan side these poor creatures use a 24 bit encryption, and haphazard passwords like 12345678.

Rhodium 10

Ask to AZ drones operators why 2 Harop change the course while they were flying over NK and finally crashed in Georgia?


Wish a smashing victory to Armenian forces against Turks, a nation that has created troubles to other countries along history. They are responsible of the Armenian genocide. Turks have always tried to impose domination to other nations throughout history, but to due to their inborn incompetence they have been unable to maintain it, fortunately. Go Armenian forces and recover every piece of land from the hands of Turks.


Armenia is a member of CSTO, and within that framework Russia can help Armenia to increase its war making potential. Turkey wants to be regional powerhouse, however it bows to Russian diktat. At present with Russia’s EW prowess, the Azeri artillery and recon would be neutralized from being accurate, Armenians should preserve their strength and attack Azeri supply lines and limit the flow of supplies to the advanced front lines, making life difficult for the Azeris as winter approaches. Sniper and ATGM teams operating as special forces would inflict steady Azeri casualties. After a few months of this treatment the Armenians could counterattack and turn the tide of the war in their favor.




The Azeris have become very good experts at capturing territories they have already captured before. If they keep this up, they might just recapture South NK enough times for them to have more land than all of NK and achieve “victory”.

boris yeltsin

Keeping hold of their current gains would be a victory of sorts. Baku should be satisfied with what it has conquered and sign a cease fire.

Jihadi Colin

The idea that Armenia could mount a “powerful counter attack” but isn’t because of its “commitment” to the “ceasefire” reminds me of some character confronted by a bully shouting to his friends, “hold me back, or I’ll tear him limb from limb. Hold me back, I tell you!”

boris yeltsin

The article alluded to small scale insurgency strikes against Azeri convoys, nothing more. The macho posturing is from internet hard men, not Yerevan.

Random Dude


Random Dude

:))) https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/44069f9a0e8505a8628df445cc79864accebedf0b4bf17c390a54293037d3e7b.png


The silence from Nato and EU is truly disturbing.

How can they allow Turkey to attack another country without any reactions? What is the intention of Nato really?

Will the allow tat Turkey attack and occupy Armenian soil just as they did with Cyprus when they occupied Greek soil?

How come that Aliyev want to claim land that even his own father had declared as non Azeri land? There are video recordings on various sites where you can see Aliyevs father speaking out that Azerbjadjan has nothing to take from Karabakh.

It seem however that the entire situation has become a matter of Islam agains Christianity where Turks are off course supporting the islamic country Azerbadjan and so does also shithole countries like Pakistan, Afghanistan and even Somalia who got enough problems of their own to solve.

Recently also Iran who used to be allied with Armenia, turned their back to Armenia, if that is not a proof of taking clear position against christianity then i dont know what is.

Whats truly strange to me is that Israel is so much anti Armenia to the degree that they are supporting their worst enemy which obviously is islam.

What is the catch here? why do jews support islam in the war agains worlds oldest christian country Armenia?

It is time for EU and christian countries like Poland, Hungary, Greece and Serbia to actively support Armenia.

The Karabakh war is not a war over land but rather a war between religions and Armenia is the only country defending christianity against united muslim countries and obviously also jews.


Turkey and Israel have always been allies. Ignore the cheap rhetoric and look at the facts. This has nothing to do with religion.

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