By February 25 morning, Turkish-led forces have once again reentered the town of Nayrab in southern Idlib amid an intense fighting with the Syrian Army.
Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (formerly the Syrian branch of al-Qaeda) and other al-Qaeda-linked groups supported by Turkey launched an attack to recapture Nayrab from the Syrian Army on February 24. However, their first push resulted in no progress. On February 24 evening, they launched another attack on Syrian Army positions in Nayrab entering the eastern part of the town.
According to pro-militant sources, during the following night clashes, Turkish-led forces captured most of Nayrab from the Syrain Army. On February 25 morning, supporters of al-Qaeda claimed that the entire town of Nayrab had fell into their hands. Pro-government sources deny these reports claiming that clashes are still ongoing.
The attack on Nayrab took place amid the collapse of defense of Turkish-led forces in southern Idlib, where the Syrian Army recaptured over 10 villages and deployed in a striking distance from Kafr Nubl.
The developments on the ground demonstrate that even with a direct Turkish involvement Idlib groups have not enough resources to oppose the Syrian Army advance across the region. So, while they were concentrating their efforts on Nayrab, their defense collapsed on another chunk of the frontline.
Even if they did in fact take nayrab….
They lost 10 other towns in the process… Which is typical of how the SAA operates: They attack, SAA counterattacks, and the Terrkeys lose more territory than at the start….
Fighting with SAA is only serving Zio-US interests.
Is just a matter of time, until SAA will annihilate this cum of the world including theirs backers Turkey.. Turkey will become a hub for terrorists from around the world, if they don’t kill all off them Supporting this non humans,Turkey betrays God itself,.. Even if will take 20 years and millions of good people dying for eradicating terrorism, is is worth.. A message to terrorists Scumbags. You can run but you cannot hide forever…. Will find any of you and will make an example from you,skin for our shoes,and will burn you alive..for destruction and suffering which you bring in life of ordinary people.
How about dropping a few FOABSs?
For Nayrab just one would be more than enough .
Nayrab is really damn close to the city of Idlib. So close that most of head-choppers from the city probably make up the bulk of the fighters trying to retake Nayrab right now. This pretty much IS the fight for Idlib city. If head-choppers are too weak to retake Nayrab, then they won’t be able to defend Idlib city itself when they retreat there.
Correct. The loss of a few towns and villages in Southern Idlib mean little while the loss of Idlib City would spell the end of the Idlib Terrorist Reservation. It will be interesting to see if the SAA will be able to reverse the terrorist gains, they almost always have in the past.
Good analysis and glad to see some critical thinking. I wrote a post on where this is heading and hope I am wrong. Would like your input.
Erdo will likely send the demoralized Idlibistani headchops on a European vacation to recover their spirits.
London is always a favoured destination for tourists in Springtime. The White Helmets could organise open topped bus tours for Erdos vacationing head choppers. :)
They can work their magic on the head of a good pint of Guiness.
There are plenty of Turkish kebab shops in London where the Jihadi’s can replenish themselves as well.
SAA tactical retreat strategy… let the camelfuckers enter the village, because then you know where they are. better have them concentrated in one place, then spread all over the fields
HTS fell for the same trap 4 months ago and were obliterated
i hope this is the case
Concentrate them in one place and then spread them all over the field.
When Russian Air Force bombed Turkish outpost that killed 13 Turkish soldiers, given Erdogan cannot let that go unanswered, it means either: Russia sees no positive outcome in further diplomatic efforts or, Russian MoD sabotaging diplomatic efforts backed by Putin.
I believe the latter more likely. I notice often announcements from Russia speak on behalf of Putin and Russian military making plenty of statements not exactly supportive of diplomatic efforts. There is a power play in progress in Russia and Erdogan is evaluating whether Putin or Russian military will gain upper hand. Erdogan gave a date of end of February but loss of 13 Turkish soldiers suggests Russian MoD has ability to force Erdogan’s hand.
I understand the Russian military rationale – the Astana Process played out as predicted. Why pretend it has any viability or credibility remaining? Call a spade a spade. Erdogan backed himself into a corner and I would have thought he would have a better understanding of Putin’s limits on delivering when deliverables run counter to Russian interests.
Now we all pay, prepare for war. Do not think Turkey will roll over. This will not be pretty. Expect things to get ugly and bloody as it expands to draw in ther nations
There is only one thing you missed. Russia is a nuclear power and has nukes in Syria, they can nuke Turkey anytime they want. So the question is would erdogollum risk a nuke on his dickhead… Second question would the U.S. and Trump start WWIII over Turkey? I think both can be answered with a no. That means Turkey will back down, because losing Syria is not an option, never was. Its all in now…
I would go with history that has shown nuclear threat has limitations and generally fosters increased risk of nuclear proliferation which has been the case with an ever expanding nuclear club. If Russia used nukes on Turkey, it would contravene their nuclear posture which is use if Russian existence in peril – Turkey will not be an existential threat.
Also, nuking Turkey would make Russia a pariah as well as very likely triggering article 5. One thing though is Russian military attitude may give Erdogan little choice other than war or total capitulation.
Russian military believes war with west may be inevitable and I have read many opinions of Russian military to take seriously that Russia is preparing to go to war. Erdogan is facing choice of war with Russia or fall from power. Erdogan has US and NATO as potential backup and US base in Turkey still active and has tac nukes. Erdogan not necessarily on his own
The complexity of the calculations in making the next chess moves is creating uncertainty but we continue to lurch towards war.
Those nukes at incirlik are gravity bomb delivered, Russia is playing nice with Israel, they wont shoot at them, even the Syrian air defense can take out 90% of incoming missiles. That means if Russia wanted it vould take out anything, anytime. They could rven destroy tbd airbase, they are watching it 24/7 with spy sats. Aside from that the U.S. wont destroy itself over Turkey. Turkey isnt very popular neither in the EU nor in the U.S. I might add that the U.S. used nukes in the past and Im not talking about Japan… I mean Tianjin harbour in China 2015. I know you will deny it but those were tactical nukes delivered via cruise missiles. Saudis also used neutron bombs in Yemen, on video. There were also one or two suspicious explosions in Ukraine. So dont think its out of realm. Russia wont let Syria fall. Its an existential threat, because if it falls, Iraq will fall too, than Iran, and guess whos next… The war will be won one way or the other, Russia is holding itself back. It could unleash a firestorm we havent seen since the movie Independence Day ;)
If USA and its allies are using nukes, why doesn’t Russia call them out on it?
Because they can use it as a leverage, its a joker card…
Oh I am aware of use of nukes in Yemen – low yield neutron warhead – at least 3 occurrences. I suspect Israel employed a low yield bunker busting tac nuke in Syria to destroy a high value target underground – the earth quake registered exceeded what would be possible of conventional munitions. Ukraine I have my doubts, too close to the bear’s den.
All major powers are holding back, for now…
Russia never keeps its nukes abroad.
Yes they do. Cuba and Syria has Russian nukes. You heard it here first…
Truth hurts, try to handle it…
bullshit, not truth
No they don’t. I assure you that wherever you read that it’s not true. The only Russian nuclear weapons not secure or at ready stations inside Russia are on Russian submarines. There are not enough Russian forces in Cuba or Syria to guard such a dangerous treasure and Russia has no permanent launch vehicles of any kind in Cuba that they could pair a warhead with. What you’re saying is an absolute fiction. Russia isn’t going to go nuclear in Syria, unless the U.S. steps up to that level.
They have deployed Kaliber cruise missiles in Cuba those can deliver a tactical nuke. If it makes you sleep better font believe it.
Launched from what, the shipping containers? That was a demo and not in any situation short of the apocalypse would Russia start mating atomic warheads to Kalibr missiles in the export marketed shipping container launch pod. It’s not realistic. Are nuclear weapons just sitting around in port areas, unguarded? Kalibr land attack cruise missiles, based in Cuba, are subsonic weapons that would have difficulty reaching any U.S. strategic target before being detected and kicking off a full nuclear exchange. If Russia were going to first strike the U.S. with cruise missiles, looking to strike strategic threats in an ambush strike, Russia would use the new Zirkons, launched from submarines and/or the KH-102 long range stealth cruise missiles launched from over the North Pole. The only way Kalibr container launched cruise missiles could be a dominant decapitation first strike weapon would be to get the containers inside the United States or Canada, an enormously difficult idea. What you’re suggesting strains all realism and does Russia no good by being there but would mean significant risk.
Most versions of the Kaliber are supersonic… How do you know how many Russians or Cubans guard them and exactly where… You dont know it. U.S. cant even stop passanger planes and archaic Iranian missiles, I doubt they could stop a Russian cruise missile of any type or a dozen of them… More options, thats the key, its not a first strike weapon but a deterrent. U.S. has Aegis Ashore launch systems in east europe and they are compatible with nuke tipped Tomahawks… aimed at Russia. If U.S. likes to play Russia can play it as well. That simple. Bye.
No. The Kalibr cruise missile in it’s anti-shipping variety is subsonic until it nears it’s target. Than it sprints to supersonic velocity as it attacks. It pays for that late sprint by giving up range. In the anti-shipping variety the range is between three and four hundred kilometers. Not useful at all in a nuclear scenario involving targets all across the United States. The land attack version Kalibr is not supersonic at any part of it’s flight but has marathon legs in exchange-something like two thousand kilometers, depending on altitude. The stealth profile of the missile is good but not great, it would be tracked from a launch in Cuba and with a flight speed of an airliner would be nearly useless as a first strike strategic weapon, unless launched in large numbers.
The base model has a range of 2500km with a terminal speed of Mach 2.6. The Kalibr-M has a range of 4500km with a terminal speed of Mach 3. Sorry you are wrong. Google is your friend… Bye.
Way wrong. The land attack version has no supersonic sprint capability. Check your information source with other sources before making absurd statements.
You are indeed. “3M14T is the inertial guidance land attack variant which is deployed by the Russian Navy. A surface ship with VLS launched missile, with thrust vectoring booster, its basic length is 8.9 m (29 ft), its warhead weight and other performance are the same as the 3M14K. Russia fired 26 3M14T cruise missiles from four surface ships in the Caspian Sea against 11 targets in Syria on 7 October 2015. According to state television news (broadcast of 11.10.2015), launch of production took place in 2012. Details of this version – a maximum speed of Mach 3, a range of 4,000 km, basing in the air, on land, on water and under water. The missile can make in-flight maneuvers 147 times or more (in any direction), it has a minimum height of 10 meters, an average one of 20 – 50 meters (up to 1000 m), it will automatically follow terrain, it can be controlled in flight.” Same launchtubes… Supersonic, 4000km + range. Case closed…
That guy is making some sensational claims. Thanks for setting him straight.
Where is there any proof that Russia has nukes in Syria? They wouldn’t need to have them in Syria because they have every possible delivery system to send them from Russia. I don’t believe Russia would be so stupid to use a nuke on Turkey because just one attack would activate article 5, the straight would be closed and they would be at war with NATO and have to defend their assets in Syria at the same time. Do you see how suicidal that would be?
What kind of evidence do you want, written orders and serial numbers plus sat intel? Give me a break … U.S. wont sacrafice themselves for Turkey. Article 5 is only valid if Turkey is not an agressor, but they are since they are already in Syria, supporting terrorists… Russia would only have to use nukes if Turkey decides to start a full scale war, 4000 Russian troops and 70 aircrafts in Syria wont stop them, they would be outnumbered. Its not a tech issue its a numbers issue. Only thing holding Turkey back is that they know Russia wont hesitate, there will be no broken arrow scenario. Bye.
You expect the west to follow International Law? To make such bold statements I would think there would be info about it somewhere.
Russia have been at all times careful to the extreme to keep this war on terror confined within Syria. And for this very reason, I doubt very much Russia has nukes in Syria, because; 1. Russia has a No first strike policy. 2. Even if behind the scene they brought tactical nukes to Syria what purpose would they serve? 3. Russia can if it wants deliver non nuclear strikes with their “wunderwaffen”, again why would they do that ? In my opinion Russia have been slowly dragging out the contradictions of Turkish regional policy and exposing them for all the world to see. First they saved Erdogan’s backside, knowing full well once they drained the poison from this little viper they would have a pet snake. Then little by little they would allow their little viper regain some venom. The S 400s, the Su 35s, production contracts and then Asanta. The pet viper was now almost fully recharged with recklessness and ‘depleted venom’. The Asanta Agreement locked Turkey into an agreement they either wouldn’t or couldn’t keep, all Russia now needed to do was wait. So, they gave the Turks as much rope as they needed. When Russia decided the time was ripe for Idlib Jihadis to be taken out they pulled the lever on the trapdoor. This unleashed the SAA on the Idlib terror gangs along with Erdogan beginning his free fall with a long rope around his neck. Moscow had been anticipating and fully aware of NATO High Jinks in the UN. However, over the previous 18 months Lavrov had been holding meetings with all those non-aligned countries, explaining the Syrian situation and the failure of their partners Turkey in separating out the “good terrorists from the bad terrorists”. This effectively neutered the High Jinks of FUKUS and their lapdogs. Turkey is now understood as a pariah, with little leverage whichever way it turns. Unfortunately, “depleted venom” is still very painful when striking opponents, however, it is not lethal. Unsure how much rope is left before Erdogan swings, however, I have a feeling Russia have a safety net ready to catch their little viper just in case he is needed to preform one last twist
Russia does not have nuclear weapons in Syria, point.
Ok they dont, wink wink ;)
It counters to more strategic implications,make no mistake erdogan will get his justice,but not the kind unawares are dreaming about,just you wait and see,it gets better and better,either one not loyal to the leader of respective nations must die in shame,either way cia/nwo are fkd,finished!
Erdogan is constrained by how many dead Turkish soldiers the citizens of Turkey will tolerate. His involvement in Syria was never particularly popular with Turks, but acceptable as long as it at least looked successful.
Erdogan can’t spin the current head-chopper disaster to look good to Turks any more. It’s his disaster and it’s brought nothing but trouble and embarrassment to Turkey. Russia is just capitalizing on Erdogan’s current weakness and self-destructive behavior, but doesn’t want to antagonize the Turkish population. If Erdogan is thrown out by his own people, Russia will need to negotiate with his replacement. Turkey still matters, but Erdogan is way beyond his shelf life.
yes, that is another angle and very plausible. In this case, Russia is helping accelerate Erdogan’s fall. We will have to see if Erdogan has the staying power of MbS…
its a trick from SAA to keep this scum busy in nayrab . so SAA in zawiyah mountain and arbain mutnain kill those remaining rats. SAA will take back Nayrab and sarmin . just matter of playing with turks and scum terriost
Turkrats know if offensive come from Nayrab along M4 highway then whole pocket east of M4 would be closed and those rats inside would be annihilated soon. That is why Nayrab is important for their defense.
Retaining Nayrab is essential in keeping the M5 open. And while the SAA fights bravely, the sad truth is that they display very often inability to defend against the jihadists attacks in close combat. They lack the fanaticism sadly..
Doesnt look it evidently,hell no,strategic retreats hold station,saa are better fighters in close combat(period) They have the guts and the spirit on their side,the enemy only has ego(period)
you say better in what?sneaking up on saa nazi style as in history as worser fighters must do, conversely when you get much heavy nato assistance in certain odd cases,it may work but only for a certain time until strategic mission returns to the fore,overall the gains far outweighs loss!
Fanaticism is a by product of super drugs for the masses,like nazis,eventually they will wear down as the more alert opponent by then is good and ready to put them out of buisness for good,logical thinking suggests,it is not what i define as spirit in the making on mission merit, whats so fanatical,hardwired to self destruct,that achieves nothing absolutely nothing but loss!
The rats don’t have ego/brave. They only have drugs. They are high as the moon in every fight they go to…
That’s true of holding forces. They tend to be low-confidence units that collapse easily.
Assault forces like 25th div and 4th div have high morale and competency. But they are usually employed as fire brigades, moving from one area of MLR to another as the situation dictates.
They know the truth, they know there are no virgins in heaven waiting for anyone, the other side stupidly don’t know that yet, but they might find out the truth soon enough.
typical tactic of SAA
pretend to retreat
the rats enter
then wiping them all out
The feigned retreat is one of the most effective tactics, just ask the Mongols.
However, I don’t think most the SAA holding forces really practice that. What often occurs is a full-on rout, with functional first rate equipment being abandoned, ordnance stores not being spiked, men in full panic mode. SAA general officers are likely well aware of the low morale of their holding units, and modify their doctrine to assume that any holding force is going to rout under committed assault.
Have you even see the pictures of the past failed attacks on Nayrab? Dozens of turkish backed radicals dead in the fields. And the Saa moral is higher than ever. They liberated more in one month than in 8 years of war..Also, having reached Idlib city in mortar range is a big accomplishment on its own.
Yes, the headchops took heavy casualties in the first assault on Nayrab. Nayrab might not be populated by the typical SAA holding forces. I was just making a commentary on the quality of SAA holding forces in general, and that I doubt feigned retreat being a staple SAA tactic.
Let the drone attack starts in Nairab and at Syria Turkey border.
The Turks aren’t trying to protect those areas and most of the terrorists have already moved out weeks ago, that’s why it’s easy going. It looks like the Turks are going to try and protect the M4 and use the main road between Idlib city and Turkey to transit supplies, it’s not as good as having the M5 from Aleppo but good enough for the Turks needs. That explains why they’ve fought so hard to retake Nayrab, so next stop for them will be Saraqib I think, I hope the SAA are really well dug in there now. I suspect we’re about to easily take back all the south of Idlib and most of Hama, and then come up against a brick wall when we get close to the M4.
Just attack Antarib,Kafir Loosin and Idlib city with drones.Keep on sabotage Erdogan terrorists stronghold. First triggered bullet or bomb does not have match or respect for best soldier or terrorists it just destroys without discrimination or favours.
Anyway, they have taken Nayrab. These are bad news for me…
…Actually HTS has retaken Nayrab according to Almasdarnews. Not too dramatic for SAA in fact, while the key town of Saraqib is still safe. They will be back and retake it easily. It’s just a scarce psychological “victory” for the Turkish back loosers
First SAA will let all the rats enter nayrab trap. Then all of them will be torched.
Too many generals and experts in the room lol. Fsssssss take it easy and relax!!!
We are fine, the overall result is postive…
Turkojihadists try to cutoff main road,make bridgehead and push from there comforting other fronts and regain initiative advantage. Russians and Syrians must bomb them 24/7