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DECEMBER 2021

Turkish Efforts To Seize Northern Syria

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Turkish Efforts To Seize Northern Syria

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Submitted by Khaled Iskef.

The recent events in the Syrian north show the clear Turkish intention to seize the lands of northern Syria and annex them to the Turkish state, similar to what happened in the Syrian Iskenderun sanjak occupied by it since 1939.

Throughout the years of its intervention in the Syrian war, Turkey relies on following a clear Turkish policy in the areas under its control and the control of the affiliated armed factions, starting with imposing its currency and curriculum, and circulating the issuance of the “local councils” decisions in the Turkish language, giving Turkish names to the streets of cities, villages and towns under its control, forcing the people to contract with the Turkish companies for various services.

Sources reported a new aspect of the Turkish trend to consolidate its presence on the Syrian territories under control, which has been witnessed recently in these areas in terms of massive military movements aimed at establishing illegal military bases and observation points, the abundance of which has become evident.

The sources believe that those Turkish reinforcements and the densely increasing deployment in northern Syria have a direct purpose, which is the military confrontation.

Noting the imbalance between the proportion of these military buildups and the relatively weak military operations, another aspect emerges, which is the mobilization and stabilization of military force in preparation of announcing the annexation of northern Syria to Turkey, and to counter the reaction of the Syrian state on this matter.

Over the past months, the successive withdrawal of the illegal Turkish observation points was observed in the countrysides of Aleppo, Hama, and Idlib, in a similar way to the regrouping of the forces that were trapped in the areas that the Syrian state regained control over, in return for the clear increase in the number of observation points in the areas controlled by the militants in Idlib and the northern countryside of Aleppo.

The matter isn’t limited to the observation points, but also includes the illegal bases that were set up, noting that the last bases are currently being established on in the “Jarablus” area in the countryside of Aleppo.

As for the internal living conditions in the areas under Turkish control, examples of the Turkification policy abound there, in continuous attempts to change the demographic nature and wipe out the Syrian culture and civilization. Afrin is an illustrative example.

Since its control on Afrin was imposed, Turkey has followed an approach based on the expulsion of the indigenous population and the settlement of the armed men affiliated with Ankara in their place, with a continuous pursuit of every party opposing it, in conjunction with imposing its own laws on the people dealing in the Syrian pound and introducing Turkish companies into the market, opening schools with a Turkish educational system etc.

The Turkish method has also developed in the countryside of Aleppo to the point of opening universities and institutes affiliated with the Turkish universities, the last of which was opened a month ago for a faculty of human medicine in the town of Al-Rai, in which a higher institute for health sciences had also been opened, in addition to opening 3 other colleges in 2019 such as the College of Education in Afrin, the College of Administrative and Economic Sciences in Al-Bab, and the College of Islamic Sciences in Azaz.

It’s noteworthy that the Turkish policy pursued in northern Syria isn’t limited to the aspects mentioned above but also affects various other aspects of living. The locals are forced to contract with Turkish electricity and water companies, while only Turkish goods are allowed to be traded, in addition to monetary dealings limited to Turkish lira, and the creation of “local councils”, where the decision is made by Turks according to their interests and in order to achieve their goal of wiping out the Syrian character from those areas.

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Assad must stay

torkis will be stopped butt cold

Jens Holm

Thats expected from here. They now have enough to negosiate, what they want.

We will see if they alsop dare to take decline the SDFs by taking Ain Isa.

RichardD

There are international laws governing military occupation of foreign lands. The best solution is a Turkish withdrawal and the resumption of Syrian government administration.

Until the rest of Syria is cleared, the Turks have a plausible argument for occupying a border strip to deal with the Kurdish issue until the Syrian government is in a stronger position to do it itself.

But the Turks don’t need Idlib city to do that. And the Syrian government coalition clearing the terrorists up to the Turkish occupied border strip needs to be an option.

Once the US is gone from Syria and the zioKurd secession attempt is over the Turks really have no justification for occupying a border buffer zone. And any support for terrorists attacking Syria until then is a violation of international law.

khaled iskef

actually it is not about the Kurdish at all
turkey first goal is to occupies the north border just like they did in Iskenderun Brigade

RichardD

I’m sure that that’s part of it. Though the Adana agreement indicates that both governments recognise the zioKurd problem:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Adana_Agreement

Pave Way IV

It only took six months in Libya for Erdogan to be charged with war crimes under crimes against humanity.

On Wednesday, the International Criminal Court received a lawsuit against Turkish President Recep Erdogan and Head of the National Accord Government, Fayez al-Sarraj, on charges of committing 20 war crimes in Libya and Turkey violating 33 UN resolutions.

…These crimes varied between the aggression, genocide, genocide by inflicting serious physical or moral harm, genocide by imposing living conditions intended to intentionally cause physical destruction, and the crime of willful killing, which constitutes a crime against humanity.

Evidence also included war crimes represented in the destruction and seizure of property, the war crime of attacking civilians and civilian objects, attacks on employee employees or objects used in a humanitarian aid or peace-keeping mission, and the war crime of attacking or stealing and pillaging unarmed and civil places.

The complaint concluded by saying that Erdogan and Al-Sarraj also committed “the crime of direct and public incitement to commit war crimes and crimes against humanity, spreading hatred and assistance or encouraging planning or preparing for them, and the crime of transporting, training, financing and recruiting mercenaries.”

The ICC is pretty worthless, but it would be some tiny measure of justice just to see him convicted. Then they can move on to the U.S. who is guilty of pretty much the exact same crimes in Syria.

khaled iskef
Pave Way IV

Use of mercenaries anywhere is a war crime. Turkey’s mercs will just the latest ones in Yemen. UAE and Saudi Arabia have, at the very least, used Blackwater v.6 and continue to use Sudanese mercenaries. None of them have stood up too well against the Houthis.

Willing Conscience (The Truths

“Sources reported”, “The sources believe”,
Who are these “sources’, is the Russian Government the source, who else could it be.
All that glitters is not gold, Putin knows that now, but if he’d known that before July 2016 I’m sure Erdogan wouldn’t have survived the coup attempt.
Have you ever heard the saying ‘they cause more trouble than they’re worth”, if you haven’t and you want to know what it means, just take a look and see how the Russian Turkish relationship in Syria is working out, it’s the perfect analogue for the saying.

The Objective

I must say that your understanding of Assad’s challenges needs some correction. You think Russia and Assad would be better off if the Turkish coup succeeded?
What would have happened is that a military head of state in Turkey will toe the U.S line on Syria 100%. The military would have done what Sisi did in Egypt, aggressively reverse the gains of Islam in Turkey, and doing exactly what the U.S tells them to do. Assad would probably be history now, because you and I know the U.S/Israel want Assad out.

Willing Conscience (The Truths

I think the Turkish nation would’ve been better off if Erdogan was assassinated, he’s an evil man
What gains has Islam made in Turkey,
Repression of other minority religions,
Oppression of women’s rights,
Hostile actions in Syria, Iraq, Libya, and Azerbaijan,
Great gains.
Both Trump and Israel have said they have no problems with Assad remaining in power, but Biden is a different kettle of fish, and so far he hasn’t been forthright in making his intentions known, he’s just playing the same old tune of resolution 2254 will solve everything, but I think he’s going to change that tune just slightly in the upcoming future, perhaps even by using new amendments to try and lure Assad away from Iran.

The Objective

That’s the problem: lure Assad away from Iran. This is IMPOSSIBLE. Why?
Luring Assad away from Iran is cutting Hezbollah off and green-lighting an Israeli offensive in Lebanon. As soon as Hezbollah can no longer be resupplied from Iran, war will start. The Iranians figured this out long ago. So they took the necessary steps of training tens of thousands of Shiite militias in Syria who Assad cannot do away with without triggering another civil war. A civil war that will attract more Shiite fighter to Syria from Lebanon and allover the region through Iraq. This may force Iran to work with Turkey to overthrow Assad, and it’ll deprive Russia of its foot soldiers in Syria(the Shiite militias). For Russia to stop this, it must deploy ground forces. The Sunnis will also be fighting Assad backed by Turkey and Iran.
The only option is for Russia to talk Iran into leaving peacefully. However, Israel will never accept this as long as it intends to fight Hezbollah. Even if Iran were to temporarily withdraw from Syria, as soon as war breaks out between Israel and Hezbollah, Iran will seek to support its proxy through Syria. So, Iran is unlikely to agree to any temporary withdrawal in Syria because the Russians cannot be trusted. They will likely deny Iran access through Syria once hostilities start with Hezbollah.

The likeliest scenario is Russia striking a deal with America such that the U.S withdraws its troops under a Russian guarantee to keep Iran off Syria. I think America, Israel, and the Arab league will agree to such an arrangement. but the problem again is Iran. Maybe that’s why Iran isn’t going to the battlefield against the Sunnis in Idlib and other parts of Syria. Iran probably suspects such a Russian-American arrangement in the cards. This would be the best outcome for Russia, Assad, Arab League, America, and Israel: They can get rid of both Shiite and Sunni fighters aligned with Iran and Turkey.

I’m beginning to be thankful Iran is in Syria. Maybe this Shiite-Sunni rivalry in Syria should be kept aside. If Iran and Turkey cooperate in Syria, there is nothing the U.S, Russia and Israel can do short of deploying their own troops to fight off both Sunnis and Shiites in Syria. Considering the number of fighters that both Iran and Turkey can bring to the battlefield, it’ll be Afghanistan version 3.0

We’ll see what Biden decides in the end.

Willing Conscience (The Truths

For all my calculations I’ve never included the isolation of Hezbollah in Lebanon as part of the total equation, I tend to only focus on what I think is in Syria’s best interests, but your enlightening but also worrisome revelation now forces me to revise some of my previous assumptions, so I have some thinking to do, thankyou for the insight.
I’m going to requote your likeliest outcome prediction with some additions,

“The likeliest scenario is Russia striking a deal with America such that the U.S withdraws its troops under a Russian guarantee to keep Iran ‘and Erdogan’ off Syria. I think America, Israel, and the Arab league will agree to such an arrangement. but the problem again is ‘Erdogan and’ Iran”.

I said Erdogan instead of Turkey for a reason.

I’ve told you before the Muslim brotherhood and Iran were cooperating before the Aleppo campaign started, the Muslim brotherhood had no problems with the Iranians, they wanted to unite under one grand Caliphate and encompass all Islam under one banner [a noble cause if Sharia law wasn’t one of the end goals], but the Iranians attacked the rebels in Aleppo and now that relationship is in tatters [for now]. Remember I told you Turkey stopped buying all natural gas from Iran and instead buys US LPG now, Erdogan’s still refusing to fix the pipeline and resume imports, even though the Iranians have offered to lower the price and threatened to take Turkey to International court.
But I’m waiting for something to drive them back into each others arms, but like you said we have to wait and see what Biden does now, and sadly that bodes better for your side than it does mine.

The Objective

It’ll be a very difficult decision for Biden. However, I think he’ll give Putin more time to see if Russia succeeds in getting Turkey out of Syria. That would be the easiest solution for all of them (Arab League, Israel, etc). Once Turkey is out, they can focus on Iran.
The question now is, can Russia get Turkey out of Syria? Militarily, it is beyond Russia’s capability right now. Russia cannot do that without killing Turkish soldiers, and this will lead to Russian deaths as well. I don’t think the Russia public will take kindly to Putin risking the lives of hundreds of Russians over Syria.
Erdogan on the other hand will have domestic support because he’s under no pressure to launch the first attack, and Russia will almost certainly be the one to initiate any conflict.
Biden is between a rock and a hard place. If he withdraws U.S troops from Syria to let the Sunnis, Shiites, Russians and Iranians fight it out, he cannot be sure of the outcome. As soon as American troops start to withdraw, Turkey will attack the SDF. And that would mean more territory under Turkish control. Russia and Assad will scramble for more territory too, but Turkey will still get some more. There’ll be another stalemate and most likely a deal between Russia and Turkey that ends the Syrian war. For America, the problem of withdrawal is that there’s no guarantee Russia can roll back Turkish and Iranian influence in Syria. This ensures that Syria remains a failed state and an even greater security threat for Israel.
Like I said in another comment, Biden will give Putin more time with Turkey. If Putin fails, then Biden must choose between Assad and democracy (which Turkey is likely to dominate in the long run).
The Arab League wants Biden to choose Assad even without rolling back Iran’s influence. But this will endanger Israel.
Israel on the other hand would prefer that Biden chooses democracy. Sunni Muslims will take power and be less cooperative with Iran. They can even end the Iran-Hezbollah link. Israel is more worried about Iran than Turkey or the Muslim Brotherhood. That’s because Hezbollah has over 150 thousand rockets and missile pointed at Israeli cities.
So it all depends on which side is more important to America.

klove and light

chnaging the demographics…..wrote about years ago…….and WHO signed off the BS agreements with moslem brotherhood turkey….

Putin…….
here is my sentence i posted over and over and over for years now, concearing putin and erdoagn in syria

ONLY a madman who has lost all his senses, or a treacherous zionist pig, could come up with the idea and to the conclusion, that an invasion and occupation by turkish forces of syrian land would benefit the legitimate government of assad.

khaled iskef

the Turkish doing the same think they did about Iskenderun Brigade in the past

klove and light

so what will be the excuse this time for the zionist brainwashed putin lovers????

bring it on….. i wanna have a laugh……….what excuses ????

99% brainwashed morons

nyomarek

I don’t see what is preventing Erdowahn from declaring the whole of Europe as part of Turkey now?

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