Following, the “Foreign Policy Diary – The Middle East Big Game: Forecasting the conflict” video, SouthFront: Analysis & Intelligence explains the contemporary domestic situation in Turkey.
At the moment, Turkey is affected by a number of domestic security and political crisises conducted mainly by a questionable polciy of Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and his Justice and Development Party. The main feauters of this situation are:
- The Justice and Development Party (JDP) has lost its position inside the country after the recent elections (June 7). Its attempts to set a presidential system of the governance were failed. At the moment, it’s hard to expect that JDP could make an alliance with any another party in the country because of its destructive attitude.
- A migration flow from Syria has been raising. According to the official reports, 2,000,000 refugees are in Turkey. The US and EU financial assistance isn’t enough at the moment.
- Turkish society is divided over the Syrian and Kurdish policy of the government.
- Turkey has complcated relationships with the US and EU. Rencent developments have shown that Erdogan had adopted the course on the rapprochement with the US, NATO and EU. Nonetheless, it’s to early to say about a success in this field. Meanwhile, the Turkish relations with Russia have become cold. Russia is an important market for Turkish economy.
- Economical instability and questinable foreign policy impact negatively domestic positions of Tayyip Erdoğan as a leader of the country.
- Next elections will probably allow JPD and Erdogan to strengthen their positions.
The comntemporary strategy of Erdogan and his allies includes:
- Confrontation with PKK and Kurds inside the country
- Pivot to the US, NATO and EU in the Turkish policy over the Syrian crisis
- Cooling of the relations with Russia
It’s a tactical approach set by the domestic situation in Turkey and Erdogan’s will to maintain as much power as he can after upcoming elections. Strategic developments will depend on number of foreign and domestic factors including the ongoing standoff between West and East blocks in the Middle East and the economic situation in Turkey.