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Trump Bows To Domestic Pressure By Delaying His Withdrawal From Syria; A Storm Is Gathering In The Levant

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Trump Bows To Domestic Pressure By Delaying His Withdrawal From Syria; A Storm Is Gathering In The Levant

Written by Elijah J. Magnier: @ejmalrai; Originally appeared at his blog

In response to domestic pressure, Trump agreed to extend the deadline for withdrawal of thousands of US troops from the northeaster Syrian province of al-Hasaka from the initial 30 days previously announced until April this year.  Journalistic warmongers and hawks in think-tanks and among the US establishment have been railing at Trump with implausible arguments for maintaining the presence of US forces in Syria. The attacks on Trump are mainly justified on the pretext of protecting the US allies, the Kurds, from possible extermination by the Turks. Other analysts dare to repeat the absurd US mantra that “ISIS has between 20,000 and 30,000 militants in Syria and Iraq” to justify the continuous occupation of northeast Syria. If these arguments were not enough, others claim that Trump would be  delivering the north of Syria to Iranian and Russian scarecrows, or that he would be facilitating the “Iranian-Baghdad-Damascus-Beirut connection”. Trump remains determined to pull out, despite his allies Israel, France and the UK begging him to stay longer in the Levant.

No delay will change the fate of al-Hasaka province or the unfolding course of events: 2019 will mark the return of the northeast province to the control of the Syria government forces; Turkey is choosing its camp; and the Arabs – afraid of becoming orphans like the Kurds – are overwhelming Assad with their warmth, acting as though they had not been waging war on his country since 2011.

As far as concerns the Kurds in al-Hasaka, based in the north-east of the Syrian province, they have offered themselves as human shields to Trump’s forces since they considered themselves US allies. Today, following Trump’s decision to withdraw his occupation forces, they have come to the clear recognition: the US can’t be trusted as an ally. Indeed, president Donald Trump did not consult with his European allies and certainly not with the YPG/SDF Kurds of Syria before deciding on withdrawal of his forces. The YPG, a branch of the PKK in Syria, understand that the continuous presence of the US forces as occupation troops imposes the burden of rebuilding the destroyed cities and infrastructure on the Kurds. Trump is not willing to undertake this reconstruction, and is failing to gather enough financial aid for this purpose from the Arab oil-rich countries who understand that the war in Syria is over.

It is thus clear that the current US establishment is not willing to invest in al-Hasaka province, and neither are the Arab allies who see no benefit in continuing to support “regime change” in Syria. The Arabs are engaged today in reopening their embassies in Damascus in an attempt to repair relationships they ruined during seven years of war. Sudan, the Emirates, Bahrein have all resumed official relations with the Syrian government, and soon Kuwait will do the same. Other countries are expected to follow suit. Saudi Arabia is not against the idea. Indeed, Sudan, Bahrein and the Emirates are very close allies to Saudi Arabia and would never move forward towards president Bashar al-Assad without Riyadh’s consent.

Trump Bows To Domestic Pressure By Delaying His Withdrawal From Syria; A Storm Is Gathering In The Levant

Saudi Arabia has been sending many positive signals to Damascus: the opening of the Syrian-Jordanian Naseeb crossing was not without its blessing, and Saudi Arabia is expected to play a positive role during the forthcoming European-Arab league meeting expected in February 24 in Cairo, Egypt. Saudi Arabia has never cut contacts with Syria since King Salman took power: in 2015, through a Russian initiative, Crown Prince Mohammad Bin Salman met with the Syrian president’s security envoy General Ali Mamlouk at Riyadh airport to explain that he inherited the anti-Assad policy from the previous Saudi ruler and that he would like to see some distance between Iran and the Levant. Mamlouk has maintained direct links with Brigadier Khaled Bin Ali Bin Abdallah al-Hneydan, the Saudi intelligence chief. He explained that Syria is faithful to its friends, the Iranians, and is not willing to limit its relationship with Tehran, although Syria does not on that account wish to be alienated from other Arab countries. Mamlouk’s recent visit to Egypt carried one message from Assad to the Arab league: “Syria did not split from the Arab League but it was the Arabs who detached themselves from Syria in 2012. Those who pushed Damascus out can bring it back in”. Also, Saudi Arabia removed Adel al-Jubeir from his previous ministerial position as a Foreign Minister, he who repeatedly called throughout the years of war for the removal of Assad “by diplomatic or military means” is no longer fit as a future link between Saudi Arabia and Syria.

Damascus finds itself in a stronger position in 2019 than it has in the last seven years of war. Turkey is not willing to stand against Assad, but is relying on Iran and Russia to establish a proxy relationship with Damascus. President Erdogan needs Russia and Iran as strategic commercial allies. He knows that the US is not a reliable partner since it has armed Turkey’s enemies, the Kurdish YPG/PKK in Syria, to the teeth, on the pretext of fighting ISIS. He also is aware that Assad could support attacks inside Turkish borders by Kurds and Arab tribes if Turkey doesn’t align itself in a partnership with Russia, Iran and Syria. Turkey would suffer if Syria were to line up with the UAE and Saudi against it. The US Gulf allies, notably the Emirates, do not hide their animosity towards Ankara. The UAE Minister of State for Foreign Affairs Anwar Gargash says his country wants to return to friendship with Syria and aims to “stand against the Iranian and Turkish fronts in the region [of the Middle East]”.

This is forcing Erdogan to define a friendlier strategy towards Syria – without necessarily standing against the US since he does not plan to step out of NATO in the near future – by maintaining a harmonious relationship with his partners in the Levant, Russia and Iran. These are the best channels for Turkey to coordinate the presence of its forces and proxies in Syria and to avoid collision with the forces of the Syrian government. This was the context of the Russian-Turkish meeting in Moscow in late December 2018, where Erdogan agreed to refrain from replacing US forces in Manbij, allowing the US to withdraw first so that the Syrian Army can move in and later disarm the YPG/PKK in due course. Moreover, Erdogan doesn’t want to see Assad joining the emerging Arab front against Turkey. Likewise, the Arab countries who are suddenly showing care and affection for Assad seem to want to keep their options open by bringing Damascus closer in case of a Trump U-turn against them, as he has turned away from the PKK Kurds in Syria.

But Turkey has still another problem to digest: Idlib and the jihadists. In rural Aleppo and rural Idlib, the jihadists of HTS (Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham, i.e. ex-Nusra) have decided to cripple the pro-Turkish forces of Noureddine Zengi and have managed to take control of all fronts against the Syrian army. HTS took advantage of the presence of the bulk of pro-Turkish forces on Manbij front to attack the remnants forces left behind. These jihadists, supported by Turkistani militants, have never respected the cease-fire established in Astana by Turkey, Russia, and Iran. Their continuous violations have triggered many harsh Russian responses. If they decide to attack the Syrian army’s defence lines in large numbers, the ceasefire will no longer be valid. Syria will have to fight back, with support from its allies and Russia. The timing – if this takes place before the US withdrawal – will be inappropriate.

Trump Bows To Domestic Pressure By Delaying His Withdrawal From Syria; A Storm Is Gathering In The Levant

Regardless of the situation on the Idlib front, the government of Damascus is determined to regain the territory under jihadist control whenever the occasion for battle presents itself.

But these are not the only jihadists left in Syria: ISIS still occupy five to six villages along the Euphrates river where US forces have given them quiet protection for many months. These villages are the only physical geography still under ISIS control in Syria and Iraq, yet the Pentagon ridiculously claims there are 20,000 to 30,000 ISIS militants in the two countries. Syrian intelligence estimates the number of ISIS militants in the Euphrates villages as less than 1500. In Iraq there remain ISIS sleeper cells yet, unless the Pentagon has details on every single sleeper cell, it is impossible to count the number of ISIS supporters in various Iraqi cities. Iraqi counter-terrorism units and Hashd al-Shaabi have established tight control on all provinces and have infiltrated many ISIS cells, quietly arresting many of them on a regular basis. Iraqi security forces estimate the number of ISIS militants at between 1500 and 2000 all over Iraq. The number of car bombs and “spectacular attacks” has been insignificant in Mesopotamia in the last months. There is no doubt that ISIS can attack isolated objectives or soft targets in remote villages or travel by night in small groups to demonstrate a presence. But there is also no doubt that its “Islamic State” has been thrown irretrievably into the bin of history. The impossibly high Pentagon estimates can only be interpreted as part of an effort to justify an indefinite US presence in Syria and Iraq.

No matter whether Trump decides to delay or speed up his withdrawal, the Kurdish YPG/PKK have chosen their camp next to Damascus. The sooner US troops pull out the better,  if they wish to avoid a vindictive reaction from those who offered themselves as human shield for years and lost thousands of men and women for their dream of Rojava. No matter how long the US holds onto its hostility against the Syrian government, the Arabs are ready to invest in the reconstruction of the Levant, to atone for their sin of financing the war for years, and to return the prestigious Syrian state to their fold.

No one is more interested than the Syrian army in defeating ISIS and making sure there will be no return to an “Islamic State”. For this to happen, Assad needs to eliminate al-Qaeda and all jihadists in Syria: Turkey would be happy to lift this burden from its shoulders, and Russia and Iran consider the extermination of Takfiris in the Levant as vital for their national security.

Turkey will take further positive steps towards Assad, who today enjoys a more prestigious position than at any time since 2011. Indeed the Levant is returning to the centre of Middle East and world attention in a stronger position than in 2011. Syria has advanced precision missiles that can hit any building in Israel. Assad also has an air defence system he would have never dreamt of before 2011 thanks to Israel’s continuous violation of its airspace and its defiance of Russian authority. Hezbollah has constructed bases for its long and medium range precision missiles in the mountains and has created a bond with Syria that it could never have established if not for the war. Iran has established a strategic brotherhood with Syria thanks to its role in defeating the regime change plan. NATO’s support for the growth of ISIS has created a bond between Syria and Iraq that no Muslim or Baathist link could ever have created: Iraq has a “carte blanche” to bomb ISIS locations in Syria without the consent of the Syrian leadership (following Assad’s total blessing to the Iraqi leadership to join in the fight on ISIS), and the Iraqi security forces can walk into Syria anytime they see fit to fight ISIS. The anti-Israel axis has never been stronger than it is today. That is the result of 2011-2018 war imposed on Syria.

Proofread byC.B.

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  • Master Oroko

    It may be that Trump could renege on his promise to pull troops out of Syria once the deep state comes up with a machination that will further serve as a “casus belli” to extend the stationing of troops in Syria.

    At this point, it’s up in the air.

    • Brother Ma

      Anything could happen depending on which Zionist speaks last in Trump’s ear.

      • Master Oroko

        Yeah, I guess you’re right.

      • Snowglobe

        A lot of exterior matters are going to depend on if he wins his current battle within the White House.

        He is going for broke on the battle for the border wall. If he bends, compromises or simply fails/breaks, I will expect his agenda to withdrawal the troops to be halted. It will be hidden behind a false flag of some sort to justify keeping the troops in.

        If he wins on the border wall, expect the troops to withdraw in a timely fashion.

  • John Whitehot

    “thousands of US troops”

    two thousands. Not three, or thirty – two.

    “DELAYING HIS WITHDRAWAL FROM SYRIA” (what? wasn’t the Hasakah province in object?)

    The initial statement i’ve read talked about between 100-120 days, in regards to the entire country, not one single province.

    The NYT triumphally announced that the withdrawal has been “delayed” to 4 months – which if we use the same calendar amounts to – surprise, 120 days.
    Furthermore, the US has always had the policy of claiming large periods of time, so to create the largest possible uncertainty about the withdrawal moment – to minimize risks.

    All these dogs barking and whining at the news of the US withdrawal are fed by the same had – the zionist one. The amount of trash they are producing tells us one thing, that this withdrawal might truly be a real thing, or at least – that they perceive it that way.

    • S Melanson

      Spot on

    • Tommy Jensen

      Trump asked the guys to make a plan, fight ISIS and pull out of Syria within 6 mth.

      That was 8 mth ago. Nothing happened with Mattias and Kerry who claimed there were many many problems.

      Well, Trump kicked them out as a good leader do. Then he asked their replacements on how many month they need to do Mattias and Kerry´s job? Ehh 90 days! Ehh lets say 120 days.
      All right said Trump, and here we are.

      • John Whitehot

        This is a serious issue.

        The way you put it, at least afaics, indicates orders being disregarded by several militarymen, in other words a mutiny.

        a normal country would already have put up a martial court.

        • Tommy Jensen

          Its normal. Putin has the same problem. A heavy self serving bureaucracy who switch all decisions to serve their own parasitic life.

          If the bureaucracy can delay the pull out in 8+4 month, the problem and its budget persist why it can ask for new extra budgets to resolve the same problem which again will not be resolved.

          Off course Trump as a businessman nor a Putin cant live with these idiots for long.

          • John Whitehot

            this must be one of those paradoxical descriptions written in mirror mode – If Putin does not have a problem is that of bureaucracy.

            Conversely, Trump’s problem isn’t bureaucreacy, but a legislative branch that is completely subservient to the interests of the elites and the cabals, instead of those of the voters.

        • Jens Holm

          You seemes not to know the laws and the Consitution in the United states.

          1) Trump can decide so much as You assume and 2) The US farces are much more selfruled then in most other countries.

          So Your “normal country” is 100% wrong.

          You also ignore USA is there in a coalision of many countries and do have agreementgs as well as copmmitments with them. Thats in writing wityh those countries as well. Trump dont run those countries.

          You argue as many people here believing Assad is commander of the Russian army.

          The disregarder is Trump if he dont follow the rules inside USA as well as trying to ignore, whats decided before him with other countries.

          • verner

            there is another resident retard on these pages but I think you take the price for being obtuse and muddled and in general very friggin dumb!

  • Tommy Jensen

    Me and Bolton have always respected Assad.

    Unlike many other Statesmen who demanded Assad to go, me and Bolton always said Assad could stay if he changed his behavior.

    Now where we have defeated ISIS and Assad has showed he is willing to improve, we can just forget the past and be friends again like we did with the rice chewers in Vietnam.

    We should be friends and we can be friends. Because America wants peace for Syria and its people.

    • gustavo

      Stop showing up your racism and bullshit about “USA wants peace for Syria and its people”.

  • Ross

    I wonder what sort of percentage of Syrian Kurds actually bought into the idea of Rojava? I know the leaders did, but if they are anything like our leaders in the west they represent the interests of foreign powers and not those of their people. But the ordinary Kurd going about their day to day business, do they really aspire to an independent homeland of some kind? Or is this a sentiment stirred up artificially to facilitate a wider geo-political objective (primarily Oded Yinon). Any ideas?

    • R PLobo

      Rojava is a zionist identity politics marketing scam. The amount of presstitute MSM propaganda that the Rojava farce received demonstrates how disingenuous the so called Syrian Kurd leadership really is.The Kurdish whores gained a few shekels from the US and now have to turn and run back to the Syrian state to save them. The Kurdish nation has always been a pipe dream of the globalist oligarchy – in order to create a catalyst for gangster fiefdoms in the ME – however, the crushing of the merc armies across the ME has pushed the nightmare into the gutter.
      Perhaps even the hapless gulf monarchy muppets have learned their lesson?…Maybe even the US might be learning. Never ever trust or cut a deal with globalist zionism.

      • Tommy Jensen

        Kurdistan is the only democratic entity in ME who supports women´s freedom and equal rights, a green ecological environment and clima change. They are also good friends with Israel which is a more plus.

    • jorge

      Even amoung the kurd leaders there are several political lines.

  • RichardD

    Until the IAF airstrikes are stopped. Everyone is going to question the effectiveness of Russian equipment against modern NATO fighters and Russia’s willingness to sell it’s allies out to the Jews.

    This will signficantly weaken Russia’s ability to sell these systems and Russia’s value as an ally and security gaurantor. Which will embolden the evil Jews in their efforts to destroy and subjugate Russia to add it to their goyem slave empire.

    Russia should recognise the Jews as the enemies of Russia that they are and have been for a long time. And finish the dedification process in Russia and win the Syrian war to create a better future for Russia and humanity. Taking down IAF fighters if the continue airstrikes would be a good place to start.

  • Douglas Houck

    Good article. I felt the author’s points that since none of the arab gulf states are going to pony up money for the rebuilding of Raqqa, the Al-Hasakah Governorate, et. al., and have decided to bring back Syria into the Arab League, it’s time to move on are correct. Further, the authors view that the dynamics have changed, with the gulf states seeing that the war is over and therefore are wanting to better align with Syria to buffer themselves from Turkey and the Muslim Brotherhood seems likely.

    Finally, the Syrian war is coming to a close and the US/Israel lost big time. President al-Assad stated in 2017 that this war would result in the changing of global geo-politics and he was correct. It has been the downfall of the US as the world’s hegemony.

    • RichardD

      If the US doesn’t pull out the war could drag on for some time. As long as the IAF maintains air superiority over the Syrian government coalition. They will continue Yinon plan machinations to keep Russia mired in conflict. And the balance of power won’t shift in Russia’s favor. And Russia will be targeted for aggressive victimization. Russia has everything to gain and nothing to lose by defeating the IAF so that it’s clear who is in the stronger position. Russia made a wise move by intervening in the Syrian war. They shouldn’t jeopardise the US withdrawal by cowering in fear of the Jew vermine. The only thing that doing this has ever brought is further victimization.

      • Douglas Houck

        I think that is somewhat the point of the article. Everyone has moved on, with or without the US. The days when the US could force nations to do what they want is over, as the US can no longer project power from afar with impunity. The US is becoming somewhat irrelevant. The Syrian war is over because the gulf states are no longer funding it, and the US will not put in their own money and the Russians have the weapons to counter anything the US might use. Whether the US stays or not is not that important to the overall unfolding of the end. The Donald’s statement is simply an acknowledgment of existing reality. The rest of America never got the memo, as they haven’t come to grips with the fact that they are no longer the world sole superpower. Do you see anyone doing what the US demands lately?

        See: “Iraq backs Syria’s return to the Arab League”
        https://www.almasdarnews.com/article/iraq-backs-syrias-return-to-the-arab-league/

        Even the Kurds have decided to move on. “The Syrian Kurds are seeking a political settlement with the Syrian government regardless of the U.S.’ withdrawal from the country, a Kurdish official told the Reuters News Agency on Friday.”

        • RichardD

          You’re making a lot of assumptions about the Syrian war being over and the US pulling out when it’s far from certain that that’s happening. The US is still shipping weapons and war material into Syria and has only purportedly pulled out non military and evacuated 1 warehouse. 95% of the US presence in Syria is still there. I wouldn’t jump to the conclusions that you are based on what is and is not actually happening in Syria.

    • gustavo

      I totally doubt that Syria represents a downfall for the USA as the world’s hegemony. For ISrael-USA-UK it is just a step back to give later two at the front.

      • RichardD

        It’s the downfall of their hegemony project if the Jew world order doesn’t have air superiority over Russian equipment, and that’s what’s in the process of being determined.

      • Douglas Houck

        It represents their downfall as the Russians have brought forward and used the military weapons which has negated the ability of the US to project power from afar with impunity. This was Zbigniew Brzezinski definition of what it took to be the world’s hegemony.

        • RichardD

          The IAF is demonstrating air superiority over Russia. Until that changes, your conclusions are premature.

          • Douglas Houck

            I’m not sure the IAF has air superioity over Russia. What they do have is no scruples. Shooting missiles while hiding behind commercial airlines does not show superiority.

            What is it that you think Isreal is going to do? Is their occasional lobbing of missiles into Syria, a strategic move and if so what? Is it changing the actions of any of the other players, or is it being a PITA? Whether Isreal can occasionaly get a missile in to me is not a game changer.

            Isreal wanted a failed Syrian government as they wanted to finalize their illegal occupation of the Golan Heights and wanted no real military risk on their northern border, and they wanted the US to do it for them for free. All of that is not going to happen, irrespective of whether the US stays or leaves. If Isreal wants to start a hot war (not likely as why now when it is weaker than at any time in the past), they will pay a huge price. Remember, they get 85% of their drinking water from five desalination plants. Doesn’t take much and they will no longer be a viable, functioning country.

            The world has changed and everyone is moving on.

          • RichardD

            The IAF planes were only using human shields during part of their flight. They’re tracked from take off to landing and can be interdicted when civilian airliners aren’t in the way.

            “I’m not sure the IAF has air superiority over Russia.”

            1 IAF plane has been shot down, an F-16 by a SADF S-200, and probably others damaged. That’s a demonstration of air inferiority on the part of the Syrian government coalition, with Russia as the back stop.

            For much of the war the Syrian government coalition suffered Israeli airstrikes that were more of a nuisance than a game changer. And had little effect on slowing the Syrian government coalition’s progress. Not much has changed in that respect.

            What has changed is the response to IAF airstrikes. First Syrian airspace was closed to the IAF with an upgrade to SADF equipment, including up to 100 new Panstir units. There are also reports of upgrades to the Syrian air force, but no reports of it’s use against the IAF. But that doesn’t mean that there haven’t been any.

            After the deaths of the Russian airmen in an IAF human shield attack. SADF capability was upgraded again to close to peer capability with Russia itself. And the Russian’s drew a line in the sand and the Jews kicked sand in the Russian’s faces with the resumption of airstrikes including the Christmas day human shield attack. And the Russians and their Syrian allies did nothing about the launch platforms. When the entire purpose of the upgrade of SADF capabilities was to deal with the launch platforms operating outside of Syrian airspace.

            This conclusively demonstrates IAF air superiority over peer Russian air defense capability. Whether the SADF held fire, or did fire and missed as the Jews allege:

            “Israel’s military refused to comment, as is its custom with air strikes in Syria. However, it said that it fired air defence weapons in response to a Syrian anti-aircraft missile that was launched on Tuesday night. No injuries or damage was reported.”

            – Israel resumes airstrikes in Syria with attack outside Damascus –

            https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2018/12/26/israel-resumes-airstrikes-syria-attack-outside-damascus/

            It shows that the deterrence value of the SADF upgrades has been negated by the IAF, and if the Israeli reports of a failure of a launched missile to intercept it’s target are true. It shows that the effectiveness of the SADF upgrades is a failure.

            There is an article linking to an article quoting South Front on a different topic that an F-35 was hit over Syria during the attack and recovered inside Syria during the attack. But it looks like it’s on a CIA scam site:

            “Syrian S300 units spotted several warplanes in “stealth” mode, which had violated Syrian airspace by crossing several miles past the Quneitra border. A combined Syrian/Russian unit positively identified the aircraft wing as being composed of several Israeli F35 planes, flying in Syrian airspace in violating of Syrian sovereignty. Two Pantisar missiles were launched, using guidance provided by the S300 systems, and at least one plane was shot down. Details on the shot down plane are still pending; however, it appears the plane was an Israeli F35. The other missile may have damaged one or more of the other planes in the wing, as the S300 data shows that it hit its target; however it appears that only one plane was shot down and recovered over Syrian territory.”

            – Suspected Israeli F35 Shot Down By Syrian/Russian S300 Over Quneitra Border, Following Christmas Day Civilian Airline Incident By Israel –

            https://www.dailycrusader.com/2019/01/suspected-israeli-f35-shot-down-by-syrian-russian-s300-over-quneitra-border-following-christmas-day-civilian-airline-incident-by-israel/

          • Douglas Houck

            Thanks for your comprehensive reply and I understand your position better.

            Was the purpose of the upgrade to shoot down airplanes outside of Syrian airspace or was it to shoot down anything that came into Syrian airspace? If the former then yes, Russian equipment is still lacking, but is giving them new data to potentially improve their air defense system. Both sides are trying to learn what the other side has and how to counter it.

            Even so, the IAF has only tried twice to shoot missiles into Syria since the Il-20 episode. The first time all missiles were destroyed and this time 14 of 16 were eliminated. Haven’t a couple of drones been shot down also? There has been a marked changed in the frequency and extent of Isreali attacks within Syria. Time will tell.

          • RichardD

            There are conflicting reports on what happened during the first December attack that was reported on. And whether anything was hit or not. The purpose of the SADF upgrade after the deaths of the Russian airmen was to deter attacks from outside of Syria.

            Not surprisingly the Jews are testing the upgrade to try to find weak spots. 100% of the targets in Syria aren’t defended against air strikes. A lot of low value targets aren’t defended. Though ordnance may have to travel over areas that are defended and may be taken down there. Even at a 90% interdiction rate, 10% of the ordnance gets through and saturation strikes can be used to take advantage of that.

            Taking down ordnance while leaving the launch platforms untouched is a second tier defense and stop gap method. Both the ordnance and the launch platforms need to be taken down, and the air bases that the attacks are originating from destroyed as well to insure that the attacks are stopped.

            At this stage it’s clear that the upgrades haven’t provided sufficient deterrence to stop the IAF airstrikes. The Jews studied them and then resumed airstrikes to prove their lack of deterrence value. Whether the upgrades were used to attempt an interdiction is subject to conflicting claims. It’s clear that the upgrades resulted in a temporary lull in attacks while they were assessed.

            Slowing down the frequency of attacks is better than not slowing the frequency of attacks. But it’s no guarantee that the slower pace will continue. The acid test is whether or not the upgrades are capable of taking down modern NATO fighters in a combat situation. Until that is done, questions will remain whether the upgrades work in combat.

            The Russians have missed two opportunities so far. Every uninterdicted IAF airstrike after the upgrades further degrades Russia’s reputation as an arms provider, ally and security guarantor, increases it’s credibility deficit, and fuels the anti Russia campaign that the Jew world order is running against Russia. Each failure of Russia to stop the IAF is a self inflicted wound damaging Russian interests and national security. And the security of it’s allies.

            The Jews are Russia’s and humanity’s primary enemy, and have been for a long time. Which is why their history is so full of persecution, expulsion and genocide. They bring it on themselves. Judaism should be outlawed for everyone’s well being, including former Jews. And the synagogues and yeshivas closed and demolished to dejudify the planet to create a much better world free of humanity’s number one problem, which is Jews, Judaism, and Israel.

            It’s not without valid reasons that Israel is one of the smallest members of the UN, but as by far more resolutions against it than any other. When adjusted for per capita comparison, Israel’s censures are off the charts compared to the rest of the planet.

      • Douglas Houck

        As far as the US no longer being the world hegemony, take a look around the world. I don’t see a single place where the US is getting anything that it wants of any significance. Turkey and India are buying Russian weapons over the full and pulbic statements from the US telling each country not to. China has called the US’s bluff on the trade war. Germany has told the US to stick it on NordStream2 and no one is going to stop southern Europe from completing the connection from the Turk Stream to the central natural gas pipeline hub of Austria. South Korea is moving forward with connecting itself to Europe via rail, and most likely buying piped natural gas from Russia, cutting back on importing US LNG.

        It’s not that the US has no influence in the world, but it definitely is no longer the world’s hegemony. It is a multi-polar world which is sorting out exactly what that means.

      • Sinbad2

        Well we shall see if the USA we all know is still standing at the end of the year.

  • RichardD

    My take on the current status quo is that the Jews are making the case with the renewed IAF air strikes that the Russians are cowards, the Russians are trying to sabotage the US withdrawal, the Russian equipment is junk, and that even if it does work. When push comes to shove, the Russians will sell their allies out for a few shekels and are untrustworthy allies and security guarantors.

    I understand that there are legitimate reasons why the renewed IAF air strikes weren’t interdicted. But every IAF airstrike that occurs after the deaths of the Russian airmen and the SADF upgrade designed to prevent these types of attacks. Will reinforce the above narative in my opinion.

    The Christmas attack in particular, which was a nearly exact duplicate of the human shield attack that got the Russians killed. Was a particularly forceful statement by the Jews that the Russians are our pasties.

  • Johan

    A distorted view of the reality eventuale resulting in the wrong conclusions. Ok there is one real stability Russia , one certainty and Goal because it is the reason: Syria. One unthrusthworhy immensely strong reluctant sugarbaby: the US. one real insecurity, unrealibilty and vulture: Turkey, and a heap of ordinary vultures.

  • Willing Conscience (The Truths

    This article is brilliant, it comprehensively explains exactly what’s been really happening behind the scenes and also explains why it’s been happening and how. I only have one issue with this article and that’s this,
    .
    “Other analysts dare to repeat the absurd US mantra that “ISIS has between 20,000 and 30,000 militants in Syria and Iraq”.

    4600 Isis evaded capture by the SDF in northern Syria back in June/July.
    The Hajin pocket did have an estimated 1500 Isis fighters but that has been lifted to more than 2000, some estimates even higher.
    There were an estimated 1500 Isis fighters in Deir ez Zor and Homs before the Ghoutah campaign began last year, by the end of the Ghoutah campaign Assad had allowed another 1700 Isis fighters to agree to an evacuate from Ghoutah to secret locations in the Deir ez Zor desert, that meant a total of 3200 Isis fighters.
    So there’s at least 10,000 Isis fighters still in Syria alone, and that’s just what we know of, I don’t find the statement absurd at all, it just confirms all the available data we already have. And Iraq would definitely have more Isis fighters than Syria does, 30,000 may be an underestimate.
    Apart from that this is just about the most comprehensive analysis I’ve ever read on SF, good work SF, please keep it up.

  • Sinbad2

    Trump is so America.

  • Brian Michael Bo Pedersen

    Wonna bet that dump just said he would leave syria just to cleanup his staff, well knowing their reactions?

  • Jens Holm

    You not even haved language for, what democrasy is – Even so, You critiseize.

    Trump can just destroy agreements in paper made witrh the rest of the world. Fx SDFs some 2 years ago are promised to be protected mainly from Assads as long as Assads seemes to be a threat.

    So the rest of USA react hard against those agreements being not kept.

    And of course we here as very often, You only bring the most stupid arguments from USA as if all are mad there. Where is the rest – The non Trumps being normal.

    Well gone i a Kafka chaos in seize of a resume of The Holy Choran and half of the Haddits. Only Noah and his Ark is not there.