Tricky Dragon

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Tricky Dragon

By Mikaprok for SouthFront

Rule 1 for East lovers: “Everybody lies.”

I’ll start with an interesting sketch on official chinese statistics.

In the autumn 2016, the column of the Party economist and the director of the National Bureau of Statistics, Ning Jizhe, came out in the mouthpiece of the CPC “People’s Daily”.

Tricky Dragon

Some of China’s local governments are bumping up economic data told us official.

He, analyzing the results of the year, touched the issue of regional economic indicators.

It turned out that they are groundlessly overestimated for the sake of momentary interests.

Later this year a committee headed by Chinese President Xi Jinping in October approved reforms to boost the accuracy of economic data.

Beijing sends 20,000 investigators across the country to directly collect data through a sample survey, and it’s not possible for the numbers to be wrong.

The country is so big, that the problems with number simply insoluble through other means.

Several provinces in the north-east of the country were found guilty of providing incorrect reporting.

In particular, jugglers from Liaoliang shifted the real indicators of their region almost 20% up, playing with the concepts of nominal and real growth rates.

What do we see here?

Classic management fork.

Tricky Dragon

The governors do not deal with the task and objectives. They are delegated to understand the situation of the Central Apparatus of the CCP and carry out a responsible mission.

In a number of cases, this mission seems a priori impossible.

Imagine yourself in place of the local head.

It is inconceivable to show the unfulfilled task to the party and government. It is a signal to check  for flaws and, of course, they will find it. A corruption scandal will emerge and the manager will be shot.

In the case of a nominal performance, also known as cook-book, you are under the new rules came across, conducting an audit of all provincial enterprises looking for manipulation.

In this case the fate of the tricky manager is the same.

While colleagues understand the data problems, our modest mission is to understand whether it is possible to trust official data from the Middle Kingdom.

The CPC Central Committee answered this question in the following way: the country’s GDP 2011-2014. it makes sense to review, since the basis of this data can be blurred by improper “rounding”.

Check up the wording.

It is believed that China’s main economic indicator is growing by 6.5-7 %% per year, which suspiciously coincides with the bar set by the CPC Central Committee. Literally –  to the digits after the decimal point.

Tricky Dragon

Raw data is generally more useful for assessing the state of an emerging economy. In 2007, Chinese Premier Li Keqiang, then the top official of Liaoning Province, famously said he based his assessments of the economy on three indicators — railway cargo volume, power consumption and outstanding bank loans.

If a top Communist Party leader does not trust China’s official GDP data, who could? Li’s three indicators have since been embraced by economists and are now collectively known as the “Li Keqiang index.”

In the exchange environment of Southeast Asia (Singapore, Hong Kong and Tokyo), since the beginning of the 2000s, in the analysis for VIP customers, they do not include the top 5 large figures related to the Chinese economy.

Usually, analysts look at the particulars, their difference and the intersection. You can see the dynamics of growth in property prices, sales of a certain type of services and, for example, the estimated volume of the shadow economy by years (greatly increasing over time, by the way).

If we construct several graphs and compare them with national statistics (taking into account the decomposition and features of summation), the difference at any time will be more than 20%.

Tricky Dragon

Therefore, even Hong Kong uses Western sources and believes not in absolute, but in relative figures all about mainland China.

I will not discuss the nuances, but mentioned fact, long ago known to all financial advisers, no one says aloud.

Only in the last couple of years the accidental injections are seeping into the press, which are considered annoying hod-wash and everyone continues to use official statistics from the “Red Star”.

Although it is fully understandable – it is easier not to notice mistakes, than to learn from them.

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  • Solomon Krupacek

    yup, there are big problems with chinese economy. it is castle built up on sand.

    • opereta

      No you fool !! Every thing points out to the fact that it is constructed upon rocks !! The discusion is regarding if it is also reinforced with concrete

      • LR captain

        sand can also be built onto as well. China has a lot of issue for one global exports are one the biggest sources of revenue for the Chinese. They need some one to buy their goods.

      • Solomon Krupacek

        name those things :) and i will them negate :P

        • opereta

          Name those things : Every thing you wear and every item in your house… Your Cell Phone and your computer too…. And you don’t need to “negate” Normal people can see and also can THINK !!

          • Solomon Krupacek

            This is nothing. All firms have big loans. not only official from banks, but inofficial from shadow banks. this is the big problem. one day can implode the whole system. the economical growth was given by building of empty cities. who will pay this for firms? china has giant debts. much bigger problem than in usa.

  • Pave Way IV

    Rule 1 for West lovers: “Everybody lies.”

    Pretty soon I’ll need to read the People’s Daily to get more honest US stats. Until then, I can only hope for another dump from Wikileaks for a few crumbs of the truth.

  • Fifth Sertorius

    probably the numbers are misrepresented, but I bet the West does it too.

    • John Brown

      The racist supremacist Jewish slave empire that use to be the West lies far more the China does today. Just look at the difference between the USSA employment and the unemployment rate. The real unemployment rate in the USSA is about 25% but they say it is around 6% what a joke. Add to that the plunge in the number of jobs paying over 60k in inflation adjusted terms, since the 1970s, taking into account population growth and the US economy is a disaster, which is why their admitted debt is over 100% of GDP. You don’t get debt like that in a good economy. The real USSA GDP is probably around 16 trillion not 20 trillion so their debt is more likely about 140% of GDP

      • matt

        here goes one of the pathetic jew haters again…

        • John Brown

          part 1 Who is the racist? Please explain how Jews and Israel are not racist when they do these things????
          See very good videos of how racist supremacist Jews treat Goyim.
          http://www.thejewishchronicle.net/pages/full_story/push?article-Sephardi+leader+Yosef-+Non-Jews+exist+to+serve+Jews%20&id=9964937
          http://www.jta.org/2010/10/18/news-opinion/israel-middle-east/sephardi-leader-yosef-non-Jews-exist-to-serve-jews
          For some more proof, these links below on Jewish JEWISH FORCED STERILIZATION of blacks
          http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fZFTvvFpKUQ
          Video links, Racism in Israel against all Goyim / humanity not an isolated incident. They are from “SOS Racism” so again I hope you will allow it on this site for all to see.
          The Persecution of African Migrants in the Holy Land by Israeli
          government and people it’s not just a few it’s the majority of Israel and the Israeli government
          Israel’s New Racism: The Persecution of African Migrants in the Holy Land
          https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/65272ba33698043a57e8677e4dfb9b290550d79a0d39a7be6eeff14a12a9f86e.jpg

          • matt

            John, stop your anti jew youtube videos. Anybody can find anti christian/muslim/hindu/budhist videos to make a similair statement. Stop your childish attack on jews in general. It is pathetic

          • John Brown

            Okay Matt who is the hater and the racist? “Anybody can find anti Christian/Muslim/Hindu/Buddhist videos to make a similar statement” so Matt please show us all any country in human history that has had a DNA test to prove racial purity, supremacy, superiority to get citizenship? This is the very definition of racism and hate, how can it be more racist and hateful?? Show me any other group that has killed and enslaved, inflicted shoas on more than 300 million human beings then racist supremacist Jews??? So when a person like me points out the multiple shoas inflicted upon the Goyim by racist supremacist Jews I am the hater? So doesn’t that make any Jew who talks about the Jewish holocaust in World War 2 a hater a well?? So Germans should not pay reparations to Jews because it routine in your own words “Anybody can find anti Christian/Muslim/Hindu/Buddhist videos to make a similar statement” Matt I only repeat and post info I get from the Jewish media, like the Times of Israel and the Jerusalem Post. Does that make them hateful and anti Jewish and their articles an attack on Jews?? Indian ‘Jews’ resist DNA tests to prove they are a lost tribe Inigo Gilmore in Jerusalem Members of a remote community of Indians who claim to be descendants of one of the 10 lost tribes of ancient Israel are resisting plans to carry out genetic tests to prove their Jewishness. The group, which calls itself the Bnei Menashe (or children of the biblical tribe of Manasseh), fears that the plan by a group of American and Israeli scientists to carry out DNA tests may undermine its claims to Jewish ancestry. He said: “Over a number of years, Jewish blood has mixed with non-Jewish blood in our community. So would the DNA test show that we are Jewish? Maybe not.
            ‘Teen told she can’t join Birthright without DNA test’
            http://www.timesofisrael.com/teen-told-she-cant-join-birthright-without-dna-test/
            A professor from St. Petersburg, Russia, is claiming that in an act of “blatant racism,” his daughter was made to undergo a DNA test in order to prove that she’s Jewish – and eligible for a Birthright trip to Israel.

          • John Brown

            No come back Matt?? You have outted yourself Matt, as a racist supremacist genocidal Jew. You go on about Jewish suffering holocaust etc then deny the suffering and shoa holocausts inflicted upon innocent Goyims by racist supremacist Jews. Matt who is the hater and the racist? “Anybody can find anti Christian/Muslim/Hindu/Buddhist videos to make a similar statement” the more you go on about Jewish suffering and the more you deny Goyim suffering the more you show how evil racist supremacist, genocidal and hateful you are for all on this board to see. I think the suffering, genocides etc of all humans is bad and should be prevented.
            For you the master superior Jewish race can do whatever they want. If a Racist supremacist Jew kills 10,000 Goyim its okay and must never be remembered if a Goy breaks a Jews fingernail, it must never be forgotten.
            So Matt you say Jews should get money from Germany so when will you also say racist supremacist world Jewry and Israel should pay reparations to Russia and the former Soviet Republics for Jews killing 65 million innocent Goyims there?
            When will you also say racist supremacist world Jewry and Israel should pay reparations to Africans and blacks for the Jewish slave trading and owning of blacks in the Americas??
            Oh that is right you will never say this because you are the superior master race, so if you the master race break a fingernail you get hundreds of billions but if you the master race murders and enslaves hundreds of millions of Goyims its ok because Goyims are inferior lower then animals compared to you, the master racist supremacist Jewish race. I am lower than an animal compared to you right Matt??

          • matt

            We are both homo sapiens. why you keep on bullshitting me about your twisted history on jew behaviour? Just because a part of the bolsheviks were ex jews, doesn’t make jews monsters. A lot of bolsheviks were not ex jews. Lenin, Stalin, Dzerzhinsky, Yezhov, Beria, Vyacheslav Molotov, Vasily Blokhin, all non jewish backgrounds. You make a complete fantasy, based on all evil was done by jews, its just not true, its a boring and childish view on history and not based on real knowledge. Most slaveowners and slavedealers were not jewish at all. You just shop in history and pick out all crimes that involved jews to make your stupid anti jew story.
            Sure, Israel is a country based on a racist ideology, but this movement was a reaction on the rise of nationalism in europe that in many cases worked out bad for jews.
            I support a one state solution in Israel, a non jewish state with a non religious constitution. So cut the crap

        • John Brown

          part 2
          Make sure to watch from 2:40 onward at least of link below
          https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dPxv4Aff3IA
          Racism vs. Africans in Israel (2/4)
          https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2iIZd4O5IDo&t=639s

          Racism vs. Africans in Israel (3/4)
          https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hX2ub2CyoiY
          Racism vs. Africans in Israel (4/4)
          https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=osBwvlLbBLw
          Jews want Africans OUT.
          http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OOGSBHqRDuw
          Israel: NO BLACKS ALLOWED.
          https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dPxv4Aff3IA new link
          Ester Vorknach: Sick & tired of racism in Israel
          https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XDES2UIHXF8
          Jews selling blacks
          https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sqzDSrR4L4w
          Ethiopians outraged over blood disposal
          http://www.ynetnews.com/articles/0,7340,L-3322247,00.html
          Ethiopian communities respond with rage at Channel 2 report that revealed blood donated by Ethiopians is frozen and disposed of. ‘There’s no difference between my blood and the blood of someone else’ says chairman of Ethiopian students union. Mada: ‘These procedures are handed down by the Health Ministry, and are accepted all over the world’
          https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/12392db1db04b55b084d87cd907e2e19a7e25e74adf7ff532c7a676d87de65da.png

        • John Brown

          Part 4
          Racist supremacist Jews hate historical facts and ban them. Don’t forget Lincoln is the most hated figure in human history after Jesus by racist supremacist Jews. Any white person who defends the confederacy is a stupid, useful, animal, beast, stooge, patsy taking the wrap for the Jewish run slave trade as racist supremacist Jews say, because the South economically and politically, the slave trade, banks financial system, courts, military, etc. the government, was totally run by racist supremacist Jews as the entire USSA now is. today.https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/12392db1db04b55b084d87cd907e2e19a7e25e74adf7ff532c7a676d87de65da.png Jews were so influential in those colonies that slave auctions scheduled to take place on Jewish holidays often were postponed, according to Marc Lee Raphael, a professor of Judaic studies at the College of William & Mary. http://www.jta.org/2013/12/26/news-opinion/world/dutch-rabbi-confronts-jews-with-ancestors-complicity-in-slavery Judah Philip Benjamin who served as the Attorney General, Secretary of War, and Secretary of State for the Confederacy. The first Jewish-American to serve on an executive cabinet in American history, he has received the title “brains of the Confederacy. One might say Jefferson Davis was the stooge puppet of Judah as Judah ran the military, the courts and international relations and THE security services for the confederacy, the first Mossad. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sqzDSrR4L4w http://www.jewishvirtuallibrary.org/judah-benjamin http://www.jewish-american-society-for-historic-preservation.org/images/Judah_Benjamin_Article_-.pdf https://www.google.ca/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=2&cad=rja&uact=8&ved=0ahUKEwjhiMWC7rvUAhVnxoMKHVCKAwUQFggqMAE&url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.civilwar.org%2Flearn%2Fbiographies%2Fjudah-phillip-benjamin&usg=AFQjCNHaG0unm6egkHM_UNuomRGGztmsLQ&sig2=Papy7_D1THDWDNgLQNUg6A

  • A U.S. Federal Reserve report concluded, “Alternative domestic and foreign sources provide no evidence that China’s economic growth was slower than official data indicate”.

    Washington’s Center for Strategic and International Studies, CSIS, found in 2015 that China’s economy is fifteen percent larger than official figures.

    The Peterson Institute of International Economics went further still, estimating[1] that it’s twenty-seven percent bigger than claimed and is on track for $29 trillion by 2020.

    Their estimates are in line with Nobel economist Robert Fogel’s 2010 prediction that, by 2040 “China’s per capita income will hit $85,000, more than double the forecast for the European Union and her share of global GDP, 40 percent, will dwarf that of the United States. This is what economic hegemony will look like”. Fogel’s prediction is still on track.

    [1] Is China Already Number One? New GDP Estimates. Arvind Subramanian (PIIE)

  • opereta

    Once I asked a very well educated Chinese (and also a member of the Party), about the Republic of China and what has become of it. His response, and I found it brilliant, was that the Chinese Proletariat has taken OWNERSHIP of CAPITALISM in China !!