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AUGUST 2020

Tough Time Inspires Turkey To Absorb Northwestern Syria

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Tough Time Inspires Turkey To Absorb Northwestern Syria

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Turkish authorities continue cash transfer to banks in opposition-controlled areas in northern Syria. Due to the sharp fall in the Syrian pound, the so-called ”Syrian interim government “recently formally approved the Turkish lira and the US dollar for circulation in its areas in an effort to stabilize the local economy. Banks in Azaz and Idlib were the first to receive new banknotes. Also areas of Aleppo, Afrin, Jarablus witness large quantities of Lira circulating in towns. The structures controlled by Hayat Tahrir Al-sham (the so-called “The Government of National Salvation”) supported this initiative. They have bought the Turkish currency in exchange for the US dollar with value different from the international exchange rate.

On June 11, General Finance Director of the Government of National Salvation announced that all ‘public sector employees’ will receive salaries in Turkish lira.

“Due to the continues collapse of the Syrian pound, and in response to the request of employees, who don’t want to get paid in Syrian pound, the government has started to pay salaries in Turkish lira.. this widely welcomed by the employees,” al-Ibrahim said.

The Turkish opposition has expressed its concerns about this step. According to some experts, an increase in the money supply at the expense of Syria will create a substantial strain on economy. The Turkish lira itself is also not stable – against the US dollar, it has depreciated by 13.5% in the past year alone. This is due to both global trends and the aggravation of relations between Ankara and Washington. Turkey’s financial system is heavily influenced by the US. Washington understands this well and uses its tools smartly. Very sensitive sanctions strikes were delivered on Ankara by US for the operation in Northern Syria (later canceled) and the purchasing Russia’s S-400 air defence systems.

Tough Time Inspires Turkey To Absorb Northwestern Syria

Click to see the full-size image

The direct and rapid dependence of Turkish economy from its foreign policy is conditioned by current geopolitical equation where Turkey has a role of a disposal variable. Since Turkey began providing active assistance to anti-government groups in 2011 the lira has fallen by 78%. Turkey’s GDP fell from $950.5 billion in 2014 to $ 740 billion in 2019. Taking into account Turkey’s actions in Libya, it is hardly predictable when the economy will be able to return to the previous indicators.

As for the Syrian pound, there are also no prerequisites for its strengthening. As the consequence of pending US sanctions its exchange rate to the US dollar crashed to 3 000 that is six times less then pre-war level. The switch to the Turkish lira put additional pressure on its value. Syria’s allies have still no desire (or ability) to support its currency and it continues its way to complete depreciation. Deteriorating living conditions already caused anti-Assad government protests in the government-held territories such as the areas of Latakia, Suweida and Damas.

Tough Time Inspires Turkey To Absorb Northwestern Syria

Click to see the full-size image

In the current situation, the only good advice for Bashar al-Assad is to switch to another currency too. The best options are the Russian Ruble or Chinese Yuan, since the Iranian Rial is also passing through hard times.

The roll-out of the Turkish lira is a very important mean of influence in northern Syria which already contains Turkey-held institutions, including the large military presence. Today the talks are underway to switch the areas controlled by Hayyaat Tahrir Al-Sham and other affiliates exclusively to the consumption of Turkish electricity. All this steps fit well into the strategy of Ankara to create a quasi-state under its control on the territory of Northern Syria with its further possible annexation. The economic collapses accelerate the financial transition. The current situation in Syria compounded by Western sanctions and a coronavirus lockdown offer an opportunity to the Turkish-backed forces to fill the country with the Turkish lira and to multiply their influence. There is a good chance that Turkish actions in northwestern Syria were approved by Russia. Recently, there were several signals indicating that Russia and Turkey settle their differences on key topics of the global agenda.

The approach implemented by Turkey is not a novation. The very similar one was applied on the East of Ukraine. The 26th of May the Russian ruble was established as the main currency in the self-proclaimed Donetsk People’s Republic. The reason for the reform is called “harmonization of its legislation with the legislation of the Russian Federation”. The switching to the ruble last already for years and was due to the deficit of the Ukrainian hryvna because of the financial blockade on territories not controlled by Kiev. The weakening of economic ties with the rest of Ukraine, the lack of receipts for budget payments, the cessation of Ukrainian banks led to the formation of a “vacuum” of means of payment in uncontrolled territories. Filling this vacuum with another currency has become necessary. It was a financial and economic pattern as well as an important politically determined process.

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  • nyomarek

    So Idlib will be renamed to RusTurk-Rya now?

    • Jens Holm

      It seemes so according to facts.

  • Al Balog

    Erdogan = Turkish Trump. They’re both cut from the same deep state-backed cloth 😂

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/7948482bb7a9d3cf242430258fcad286b87651472879f952c281f1bd94e5cc6d.jpg

    • Jens Holm

      Deep state hardly exist but its many members arre those which can or will not use puiblic open normal sources and see the dark things are made by themselves.

      The helpers of course are Leaders, which can run their business keeping their sheep away from nany fact giving them anything else.

      There are people here thinking clones of cars and horses are made by jews and even made invincible :)

  • Tommy Jensen

    Often I consider that no one here or anywhere on the net have the full picture, as only a small group of Government with a President can have.
    Would the world have been better off with Gulen as President? In one way yes, in another way probably no.
    But Turkey’s historic role is for certain not pretty. A difficult country.

    • Brother Ma

      Gulen and Erdogan are both Moslem Brotherhood dogs. Same feces different bucket.

  • hvaiallverden

    Well, its not exactly rocket science is it, its an Turd occupyed region, and since they have cutt of Syrian in most ways and forms, this comes as an substitute since the goods mainly comes from the Turds, and this just makes not particulare difference for the locals, after all, its juts an currency to deal with, but the extra suply is not an smart move, it creates eventually an direct impact on the Lira, more than on the Syrians currency witch is undermined by the western sactions and the hiddeous treason comitted by Russia, now, morons comes reality kicking into the screen.
    This is because of the treason comitted by Putin.

    But to make this so something more is just confirming that most dont really understand real economic issues, aka the basics.
    And the remakable silence from the west, makes one think about erDOGan grip on the european Gov balls, or was it just an show, the usualy smoke and mirrors while the basics as to destroy Syria and Iran/Lebanon was in the cross hairs all the time, makes one go hummmmm…..

    peace

  • Icarus Tanović

    Tough times for Syria? Syria was in a way tougher situation both economically and politically than it is today.
    Idlib will be liberated, and then the rest too.

    • Mustafa Mehmet

      But when ? even golan hg ? onus

  • cechas vodobenikov

    syria and ukraine—both destabilized and balkanized by American imperialism

    • Ashok Varma

      Libya, Iraq, Afghanistan and Yemen are also nations destroyed and occupied by US and NATO vassals. Turkey is the weakest link with a failed economy and if Syrians and Libyans resist, the Turkish occupation is untenable.

    • gustavo

      Yes, but in the Syria case, there was also the agreement with Russia.

  • Raptar Driver

    Idlib is now officially Turkish.
    Was this the plan between turkey and Russia?

    • Willing Conscience (The Truths

      It has been since 2015, I keep referring to the UN resolution 2254 that Turkey, Iran, and Russia all proposed to the UN back in 2015, that was the deal that gave parts of northern Syria away to Turkey.
      But Assad refused to comply with that deal for nearly 5 years, and he only accepted the resolution after the UN offered to amend a lot of its stipulations to suit Assad’s demands.
      But the Russian’s never once offered Assad a better deal, the UN did it instead, and Assad accepted the new UN deal the very same day the UN offered it to him, so nearly 5 years of saying no to Russia and just one day to say yes to the UN, that tells you everything you need to know about the Russian deals with Turkey.
      So Assad’s enemies the UN made him a better deal than his Russian allies did, that’s the truth.

    • Ashok Varma

      The Turks are occupying an area of Northern Syria five times the size of Occupied Golan and Putin made it possible by cutting deals with Erdogan and his terrorists.

    • gustavo

      Yes, from the beginnig, after TurkeyStream was approved.

  • Willing Conscience (The Truths

    LOL, this statement was a laugh and a half,

    “There is a good chance that Turkish actions in northwestern Syria were approved by Russia. Recently, there were several signals indicating that Russia and Turkey settle their differences on key topics of the global agenda.”

    Gee what a revelation that was, was there anyone at all who didn’t already assume that.

    “Syria’s allies have still no desire (or ability) to support its currency and it continues its way to complete depreciation.”

    That’s a sad truth, Russia’s not in a position to help out and Iran’s in the same boat as Syria is, it’s close to going under as well.
    Turkey’s stopped buying Iranian gas.
    South Korea refuses to pay Iran withheld funds.
    And Georgia has also closed its border to all Iranian trade as well, which means no more import revenue from them either.

    Switching to the Chinese Yuan sounds like a good idea, stability in the currency rate is what Syria really needs right now, that will pin the value of Syrian currency at its current low rate but it’ll also stop its value dropping any further, and that’s about the best you can do in this situation, otherwise it’ll just keep dropping.
    Or Assad could ask the Arab League for help, they want Erdogan and the Muslim brotherhood to get out of Syria nearly as much as Assad does, they could become valuable allies if he accepted their help, and they’d be very rich allies too, with lots of important friends, 100 billion is on offer for reconstruction costs, and that would be a huge boost for the Syrian economy too.

    • Brother Ma

      True re Yuan and true re Arab league but the latter were the dogs that got Assad into this message when they were Erdogan’s partners in crime.however ,things change, and now the enemy of my enemy is my friend, even if he is still my enemy…

      Turkey stopped buying Iranian Gas to buy more Russian gas ,right?

      • Willing Conscience (The Truths

        “the enemy of my enemy is my friend”,

        It’s a good saying and it’s lasted a long time, and there’s a good reason it has.

        You’re right, the past is the past, and dwelling on past resentments achieves nothing at all, so it’s time for Assad to forge new alliances, and if he forges them with the people who are the most opposed to the Turkish incursions into Iraq, Syria, and Libya, he’ll have strong allies to help him, because sadly when it comes to Turkey, Russia’s actually been Assad’s worst enemy, and worse still Erdogan’s best friend.

        No I’m afraid the Turks have also given the Russians a big no on natural gas imports, and instead they’ve increased imports of US LPG by 300%, and now that Turkey’s signed the new maritime deal with Libya [to steal Greek/Cypriot oil/gas, they won’t have to keep importing as much oil from Russia anymore.
        Erdogan’s dudding the Russian’s but the Russians aren’t complaining about it yet, and God only knows why they aren’t, Erdogan’s treason knows no bounds as far as I’m concerned, Putin’s been saving his butt for the last decade and this is the way Erdogan repays him, which reminds me of another really good old saying, ‘with friends like this who needs enemies’.

        • Brother Ma

          I didn’t know that Turkey reneged on Russian oil etc and gas and is buying USA LNG gas etc So Turkstream and Bluestream that were built will be empty ,just good for hobos to sleep in? Russia and Turkey announced this to much fanfare. So Erdogan knew all along he would dud the Russians or the US has bought his whorish arse again? Haha

          • Willing Conscience (The Truths

            Hopefully Putin’s learn a valuable lesson from all this.

  • jm74

    Syrian annexation well on its’ way.