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The Saker: “There is a ticking time bomb in the Ukraine”

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The Saker: "There is a ticking time bomb in the Ukraine"

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Written by The Saker; Originally appeared at The Unz Review

Between the fallout of the murder of General Soleimani and the coronovirus, the Ukraine has been somewhat forgotten, which is understandable, but also potentially dangerous.  The “young and dynamic” President Zelenskii has more or less been forgotten, especially by the legacy corporate ziomedia.  This does not, however, mean that the situation there did not evolve or, in fact, that it is not becoming extremely dangerous.  So for those who did not keep an eye on the Ukraine, here is a short summary of what has been going on:

Summary of developments

First, Zelenskii has proven to be a total ZERO.  Simply put, neither he not his team can get anything done, anything at all.  I really mean nothing, nothing at all.

Second, while initially the victory of Zelenskii seem to indicate that the Ukronazis had suffered a crushing defeat, it now is completely obvious that Zelenskii lacks the will, or the means, or both, to tackle this huge problem.  Now the Ukronazis are back in force, they provoke Zelenskii on a daily basis, but the man is simply unable to react and reassert his authority.

Third, in social and economic terms, the Ukraine is in free fall.  Following years of chaos and corruption the Ukraine is now a deindustrialized country which can sell only three things: men (for menial jobs in Poland and in the EU), women (prostitution) and its “black soil” (chernozem).  Once the land is sold, it will give the Ukrainian budget enough money to keep up the appearance of a state for a few more month, maybe a year or so.  After that – it’s show over, curtain down, lights off and everybody go home…

Fourth, it is pretty clear who the kingmaker of the Ukraine is: Arsen Avakov, the “eternal” (by Ukrainian standards) Minister of the Interior.  He not only has real firepower, he also seems to be able to turn the Ukronazi “spigot” on and off depending on his personal needs and circumstances.  Unlike the bona fide nutcases, Avakov does not strike me as a Nazi at all, in fact, I would say that he is non-ideological – he is all about “pure power”.  This makes him a much more desirable “partner” for the Empire than real nutcases.

Fifth, while the Minsk Agreements are still more or less on the agenda, at least officially, the Ukronazis have been vocal enough in their protests to basically completely stall any meaningful negotiations.  Yes, prisoners will probably be exchanged, but beyond that I see any real progress as exceedingly unlikely.  For all practical purposes, the regime in Kiev has made it very clear: there will be no negotiations with the Donbass, which simply means that there will be no negotiated solution.  It’s that simple, really.

Six, COVID19 has hit the Ukraine very, very hard.  The problem is that the authorities, which fully knew that they had no means to do anything meaningful began by thumping their chests and saying that there were no cases in the Ukraine only to then suddenly decree drastic quarantine measures.  And yet, the true information is seeping out: Ukrainians hospitals are full of cases, mostly un-diagnosed, and many have already died.  Officially, and as of right now, there are only 14 confirmed cases in the Ukraine, and only two fatalities.  But absolutely everybody knows that these numbers are totally fictional and that the real number of cases remains unknown due to a lack of testing kits, not a lack of cases.  MDs in Ukrainian hospitals are sounding the alarms, but nobody is listening.

Seventh, the situation is made even worse by the fact that there are not credible alternatives to Zelenskii.  There IS an opposition in the Ukraine, the typical Ukronazis nutcases and the generally pro-Russian politicians who are categorically and absolutely unacceptable to the (much larger) Ukronazi opposition.  Thus, there does not appear to be any political solution or alternative to the current regime.  Right now, the two politicians who appear to be the most competent are Vadim Rabinovich and Elena Lukash.  These two are very sharp and, frankly, very courageous, but they don’t have a power base powerful enough to take on the Nazis.  Finally, there is Viktor Medvechuk whose main quality is also his biggest weakness: he is considered close to Putin.  These are all rather smart and courageous figures, but compared to the power of an Arsen Avakov – they are just soap bubbles.  Will that change in the future?  Maybe, but not in the foreseeable future.

Possible scenarios

When a country enters a dramatic and deep systematic crisis, something must inevitably eventually give.  Right now there are relatively few protests simply because there is no political force of personality which could inspire people to rally and struggle for change.  Most Ukrainians are both absolutely exhausted and absolutely desperate.  They are into the “survival mode” which history has taught them and they simply wait.  Frankly, I can’t blame them.  My advise to all my Ukrainian contacts has been “get out of there while you can”, but if you can’t get out, then going into a survival mode is the only option.

Right now, the Ukronazis feel energized and they are back with a vengeance demanding that the Ukraine finally be transformed into the Banderastan they have been dreaming about for generations (except they don’t use the word “Banderastan” but prefer the expression “Banderstat”.  Their strength is in their unity and firepower.  Their main weakness is that most Ukrainians hate them.  A most dangerous combination.

Some observers have suggested that a coup might take place.  I doubt it because I don’t see any person capable of leading such a coup.  Avakov would be ideal, but he is *already* in power, he does not need a coup at all.  Furthermore, if an openly Ukronazi regime replaces Zelenskii, this will only further deepen the distress of the general population.

The truth is both as simple as it is terrible: there is no solution for the Ukraine.  None whatsoever.

So what could happen next?

The basic ingredients are pretty predictable: protests, civil unrest, violence and, eventually, a break-up of the Ukraine into several entities.

In theory, this could be avoided, but in order to do this, at the very least, the following basic conditions have to be met:

  1. The West and Russians must work together in a major reconstruction effort to rebuild the entire country, not only the war-devastated Donbass
  2. The regime in Kiev must be acceptable to all three: the West, Russia and the Ukrainian people
  3. The Ukronazis need to be disarmed and, when needed, either jailed or expelled

As you can immediately tell, this is not happening.

Yes, some have begun thinking about this issue, see, for example, this very interesting report from the Euro-Atlantic Security Leadership Group (EASLG): https://securityconference.org/assets/02_Dokumente/03_Materialien/EASLG_Statement_Ukraine_FINAL.pdf, in particular, take a good look at the “Economic Steps” and “Political Steps” suggested in this report.  The fact that a guy like Gen (Ret) Breedlove, former  SACEUR and rabid Russia-hater, could sign this document is, by itself, quite amazing.

However, with the current SARS-CoV-2 pandemic AND a brutal oil war threatening most economies of our planet, I expect the western nations to simply lose interest in the Ukraine: they will be too busy scrambling to recover from the political fallout of the SARS-CoV-2 crisis.  As for Russia, there is absolutely no way that she will agree to foot the bill for the reconstruction of the Ukraine, nor will she provide the forces needed to get rid of the Ukronazis.  Which means that for the foreseeable future, the Ukraine will be mostly left on its own.  Russia will, of course, continue to support Novorussia (for example, SARS-CoV-2 testing kits have already arrived from Russia) while distributing Russian passports to anyone wanting one (the vast majority of the people of Novorussia).

Conclusion

The SARS-CoV-2/COVID19 pandemic will have huge political repercussions worldwide because in this specific case, not only will the AngloZionist propaganda machine not be able to hide the truth from the people (if anything, all sorts of fake news and crazy rumors will have more “street cred” than what the politicians tell us), but the consequences of this crisis will be felt everywhere, including at home.  So Trump can go on in each of his pressers about how everything in the USA is “the best”, “the greatest” and “the mightiest”, but the truth is that the this virus will reveal not only the total inability of the private sector to save the day, it will also reveal how utterly dysfunctional the US,  along most other western states really are (no, Walmart and Amazon will not save the day).  No wonder the western politicians are scrambling to show how “involved” they all are – they are simply trying to cover their rear end for the inevitable “lessons learned” moment coming for all.  Maybe at some point in the future will see most US Americans reconsider what they think they know about Socialism and Libertarianism, especially when it becomes clear how different the reaction to the virus was in China and Russia compared to the EU or US.

The Saker: "There is a ticking time bomb in the Ukraine"

The sad truth about the “indispensable nation” is not slowly coming out. First and trickle, but then the inevitable tsunami

The Saker: "There is a ticking time bomb in the Ukraine"

Them Chinese commies not only beat the virus in a record time, they are helping the dying capitalists (who, by the way, are not helping each other!)

But what will be only embarrassing for US politicians will, barring some kind of miracle, hit the Ukraine with consequences far worse than what we have seen up until now.

For the time being, the Ukronazis are explaining that the Nazi salute is just perfect for this situation: not only do hands not touch, but the palm of the saluting head is facing the sun, which is hygienically good (that, and a lot of Nazis are pagans, sun worship is common amongst them).

Right now, in what are still the early stages of the pandemic, almost nobody is paying attention (most folks in the West have yet to understand that security, any and all form of security, must always be collective to be effective).  Right now, the bigger danger comes from the Ukrainians returning home from abroad.  But this will soon change, and the danger will become Ukrainians leaving the Ukraine.  At this point the EU countries will have to turn to the Kremlin for a common response to what promises to be a major disaster.

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  • Sofia23

    Invitation to a sex club – http://trim4.me/pLl

    • Concrete Mike

      Begone hoar!

  • Lone Ranger

    Ukropnazis are crying and raging. ;)

  • Lone Ranger

    Ukropisstan is a failed state, and a CIA colony.
    Pensions were cut in half energry prices tripled…

  • Lone Ranger

    Western parts will go back to Poland and Hungary, Southern parts to Romania, eastern parts to Russia.
    Ukropnazis will stand down and be good boys or they can visit adolf and bandera downstairs ;)

    • Barba_Papa

      I don’t think anyone wants those parts. Because A: while historically they may have been part of those countries, the Great Population Exchange after WW2 means there are no more Poles or Hungarians living in those parts, only Ukrainians. Why import a potentially troublesome minority. And B: you break it, you own it. It would be like West-Germany absorbing East-Germany, a poor economic area that will take decades of continued investments to be brought up to speed, and which for decades was a massive drain on Western Germany, and maybe still is today. And Poland, Hungary and Romania are nowhere near as affluent and cash rich to do that.

      Ukraine is like North Korea, a vast area of suck that nobody wants to own, because you break it, you own it. So all its neighbors would much rather have that the country remain and continue as is, put a large fence around it to keep all the people and problems in and then, hopefully, they can ignore it and congratulate themselves that this bitter poison cup of reconstruction went past them.

      • Lone Ranger

        I gave you a thumbs up.
        Most of it is on point.
        I would only add there are still minorities in Ukraine, eastern parts are mostly Russian.
        Western parts especially the closer you get to the border the majority there are still ethnic Hungarian and Poles.
        There is an ongoing fute because Kiev wont let minorities use their own native languages, which was a given right even under Soviet rule during the cold war, now its a crime…

        • Nosferatu

          There is very little, close to none etnic hungarians in UA. Mostly because there is very little close to none ethnic hungarians in the world. Most hungarians are ethnic slavic and only the language and part of the culture survived to be hungarian. They have been surounded and mixed by slavics for centuries. This is confirmed by scientists and also by my personall experience as my wife is a hungarian.

          • Lone Ranger

            Im Hungarian as well ;)
            Legyen szép napod.

          • Nosferatu

            i dont speak hungarian. My wife is hungarian but i dont speak hungarian, we are both citizens of Slovak Republic. We live fairly close to Hungary, but the level of hungarian speaking people in the region is going down.

          • Lone Ranger

            Yeah Im aware of that.
            But at least we have the V4.

          • Nosferatu

            That is right. In the V4 format we can actualy save the central Europe from islamisation and other dangers. But unfortunately in Slovakia the elections in last month were won by pro-western idiots, oligarchs and criminals. Hopefuly they will discredit themself soon and patriotic forces will in the next elections.

          • Lone Ranger

            I think they will.
            These globalist shills have a short shelf life.

      • LavXolm

        “YOU BREAK IT, YOU OWN IT.”
        When is this rule ever going to apply to the US?

        • Barba_Papa

          Story has it that when Bush Sr. thought about driving to Baghdad in 1991 after the US army had smashed the Iraqi army and topple Saddam that’s exactly what then Chief of Staff Colin Powell told him.

          Too bad he forgot his own advice 12 years later.

      • occupybacon

        Russians permanently herald Ukrainians that Poland, Hungary and Romania can’t wait to take over their country and only Mother Russia can save them.

    • Nosferatu

      Romanians will not get anything. Transnistria inhabited by Russians stands in the way of Romania getting any UA land. Transnistria also marks the geographical location which determins the future Russian border

  • SnowCatzor

    Ukraine unfortunately is a very depressing country, as there are no good options left to them. The Ultra-Nationalists have all the guns but not broad support. And the Moderate opposition has broad support but no guns.

    It’s economy is in the toilet, most want to leave (many already have), and it’s hardliners simply refuse to accept the reality of their weak military position. Instead they cling to the delusion of victory being possible, and anyone who dares suggest otherwise is slammed as a ‘traitor’.

    I honestly think at this point it may just be better for Ukraine to devolve into smaller nations. Otherwise they’re facing a future with no hope of things ever getting better. Just like all the other frozen-conflicts in the world.

    • LavXolm

      “I honestly think at this point it may just be better for Ukraine to devolve into smaller nations.”
      The US hegemony will settle for this, as it affords them forward NATO position in the hegemonic scheme, but they will still lament any temporary lost opportunity to pillage and plunder.
      I believe that the vast majority of Ukrainians want to keep Ukraine whole, though, as do the Russians.

  • cechas vodobenikov

    Ukraine destroyed itself—it has always been a precarious nation, largely populated by Russians in the east/south, Russyns, Hungarians, Romanians in the southwest, Poles/Ukrainians in the west…prior to 2014 ethnic divisions were irrelevant—the US inflamed these divisions, as they always have….Ukrainian prostitution has become their main export–in Budapest, I was told that most were Ukrainians—I heard this also in Philippines. If Zelensky wanted to improve conditions, he could not, regional, ethnic and ideological disunity and the disunity amongst their oligarchs precludes the implementation of policies and programs that will improve social and economic conditions. They have alienated Poland, Belarus and Russia—during Kuchma’s presidency conditions were much better. their political foolishness now denies them access to natural gas/oil in the Black Sea near Crimea—most coal is mined in the Donbass…apparently the vaunted agricultural output in Ukraine has declined—most of the opulent flats in Kiev on the dniepr river r unoccupied—the development of a middle class now precluded….sad
    the near future does not suggest that conditions will improve

    • AM Hants

      Look at how tiny Ukraine was, prior to 1654?

      The Tsars gave it a fairly large gift of Russian territory. Then the Bolsheviks, Lenin, gifted Russia’s Novorussia to Ukraine. The Georgian leader of the Soviet Union, Stalin, then gifted Galicia’s Lyev to Ukraine. Then not to be outdone, the Ukrainian leader of the Bolsheviks Soviet Union Communist Party, then gifted Russia’s Crimea to Ukraine.

      So much intelligence, via the Russian DNA, dominant in the proud and defiant parts of Ukraine. Sadly let down by the Galician DNA of Western Ukraine. Ironically the sector nobody wants, despite their academic leanings (Western Ukraine).

      • cechas vodobenikov

        panyatno…agreed
        Stalin was half Gruzian—half Ossetian and spoke accented Russian …it is interesting that of all peoples in the USSR only the Ukrainians dislike Stalin…they were most upset by agricultural collectivization

      • occupybacon

        There was no “Russia” before Tsardom of Muscovy allied with Don Cossacks, Peter the Great changed its name in Russia to underline that the Kievan origins of the new empire.

        • AM Hants

          Russia has been around since 800 BC, has it not?

          • occupybacon

            There was Kievan Rus, the word ‘Russia’ didn’t exist by then.

          • AM Hants

            Kiev Rus, was the capital of Russia, many centuries ago, was it not? In fact didn’t the Tsars of Russia hand it to Ukraine around 1654?

          • occupybacon

            No, it was no Russia back then, it was “Czarate of Moscow”, it changed the name in “Czarate of Russia” After they united with the Don Cosacs.

          • AM Hants

            800bc?

          • occupybacon

            800BC Putin did his first plastic surgery

          • AM Hants

            Does one detect jealousy? Wonder what recommendations a plastic surgeon would advise you?

          • occupybacon

            Yeah, I’m jealous on an old goblin-mongoloid

          • AM Hants

            Wow, that is rather insulting to those who were born with defective genes.

            Bet there is more beauty of spirit in your average dwarf or down’s syndrome person.

            Meanwhile, your obsession with President Putin, the world’s leading statesman and alpha male, perhaps could be sorted by some seriously heavy therapy?

          • occupybacon

            “the world’s leading statesman and alpha male” lol and I am the one obsessed by Putin :)) but you are right, I’m insulting mongols, goblins and what not by comparing them with him…”alpha male” lololololo

          • AM Hants

            Wonder what the mirror would say about you?

          • occupybacon

            Sure I’m not an aplha male goblin mongoloid

          • AM Hants

            At least you acknowledge the fact that you are not an alpha male. Here gender fluid, is quite popular amongst the NATO Forces, these days. Well if they want promotion.

  • Bob

    ‘Maiden’ is now just another shorthand term for the US’ aggressive, interventionist, geo-strategic regime change policies, in this case, designed to manufacture a failed state and create regional ethnic division and chaos amidst Russia’s major south-western flanking state.

  • Gary Sellars

    Fuck Ukraine. Let it BURN. Vengeance for the civilians of Donbass who were murdered in their homes by US/EU-backed Ukro-nazi trash & criminal vermin.

  • AM Hants

    Zelensky’s Mentors were Soros, who has spoken about the best times of his life being a Nazi collaborater. Who works closely with the Clinton Foundation donor, Victor Punchuk.

    Then you have his other mentor, the Head of the European Jewish Community in Ukraine and the founder of the Nazi ‘Azov’ Battalion, and isn’t he closely aligned to Avakov?

    No wonder the Nanzis are still running things in Ukraine.

    How many did Soros want wiped out of the Ukrainian population, with his instructions, back in 2014?

    Not forgetting Bill Gates heavy investments in Monsanta-Beyer, who wanted the agriculture of Ukraine. Together with Bill Gates eugenics programme and vaccine control. 13 bio-chemical labs, with complete US immunity were set up in Ukraine, advertising for Russian DNA.

    Once the land sale money runs out, with Crimea back in Russia, what have Ukraine got to offer?

    What bad news is being hidden by Corona Virus? Including the ‘first strike missile defence system’, NATO exercise ‘Defender 2020’. Clue in first strike and what was it set up for? Running parallel, to the few months Ukraine has got some money?

    Germany has pulled out. US has cancelled part of it. What were NATO hoping to achieve?

    When something big goes down, there is always a parallel exercise, as 9/11, MH17, London Westminster Bridge false flags, so come to mind.

    Russia 75th Anniversary, celebrating the defeat of fascism on 9 May 2020. What were the Nazi supporting ‘Atlantic Council’, NATO ‘think tank’, hoping to achieve with the Defender 2020 ‘First Strike Nuclear Attack’ exercise?

  • viktor ziv

    The Saker must have fever;
    “The West and Russians must work together in a major reconstruction effort to rebuild the entire country, not only the war-devastated Donbass” – WHY?!!! Who destroyed Ukraine? West, Russia or democracy Ukrainian way?

    “The regime in Kiev must be acceptable to all three: the West, Russia and the Ukrainian people” – NO! Only Ukrainian people!!!

    “The Ukronazis need to be disarmed and, when needed, either jailed or expelled” – GREAT! Killers and looters get free one way ticket out of the mess.

    • LavXolm

      The “West” should receive NO REWARD for their treachery.

  • JustPassingThrough

    a ticking time-bomb?
    what is there left to explode?
    the comedian was never meant to be more than a comedian.
    europe has left the stage.
    the u.s. has left the stage.
    internal opposition is nowhere to be found.
    the nazis? a diversion at best.

    RU will just wait until UE collapses of its own weight.
    …and then there is repartition.

    Look at the animated geography of european countries.
    The clip is 11:44 minutes long
    The UE comes in for the 1st time at 11:07 (approx.) and never stays for long.

  • cechas vodobenikov

    the headline misleads–as the population of Ukraine diminishes—5 million have emigrated to Russia since 2014, likely there will be no “time bomb”. Ukraine will likely become a de facto colony of the USA; since the recent removal of laws that precluded foreign ownership of agricultural land, amerikans and to some extent, the Chinese have purchased such properties in Ukraine’s rich agricultural regions

  • verner

    ukraine is like poland – on and off. poland’s been off the map after having been assimilated into some of its neighbours, like germany, like austria like russia and so on. I have a map of europe pre ww1, 1907 and ukraine ain’t even mentioned, or borders outlined, just part of Russia going all the way to bess arabia, galicia, boehmen, schlesia and presussen and even finland is part of russia. seems that both of those ‘countries’ have had a checkered past of on and off depending on the more powerful neighbours, it’s probably better if they are nullified and absorbed into the more powerful bordering countries.