The Trump Administration Goes Neocon-Crazy

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The Trump Administration Goes Neocon-Crazy

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Written by TheSaker; Originally appeared at his blog

Oh boy, that did not take long.  As I wrote in February, the Neocons and the US deep state have completely neutered Trump.  Just look at these two headlines from RT (and read the articles):

 ‘It crossed a lot of lines’: Trump on alleged chemical gas attack in Syria

‘We are compelled to take own action’ if UN fails in Syria – US envoy

Frankly, I feel like saying “QED – I rest my case” and stop writing here.  But I won’t – this is too serious.

First, let’s set the context.  The Syrians gave up their chemical weapons three years ago (courtesy of Russia).  The Syrians have also pretty much defeated the Anglo-Zionist-Wahabi aggression against their country (courtesy of Russia, again). There is a new (kind of) US Administration in power (some say that this was also courtesy of Russia) which appeared to have given up on overthrowing Assad.  And right at this moment in time, in what is supposed to be a *pure coincidence*.

  1. The Syrian forces used chemical weapons
  2. In a location filled with children
  3. and a lot of folks with cameras

How stupid do they think we are?

But, of course, it’s not about us.  It’s about Trump.  And he, alas, is proving to be the overcooked noodle he has been since, well, pretty much day 1 and ever since:  flaccid, confused and spineless.  And yeah, he appears be stupid alright, especially so-called “plan” to defeat Daesh (more about that below).

And nevermind that Russian experts have been warning for along time that the “good terrorists” had chemical munitions. Nah!  Who cares?  besides, these are the same evil Russkies who have now been “unmasked” courtesy of a CIA report about “foreign agents”.

We all know that Anglo-Zionists are peace loving, shy and generally kind people.  This is why we think of them as the “Axis of Kindness”.  The only way to really force their hand and make them use their “best military in the world” is to show them dead children.  Like in Kuwait, in Bosnia, in Iraq, Afghanistan, Libya and now Syria.  That, and women raped for political reasons (Bosnia, Libya – soon in Syria I suppose).  Good thing that the latest atrocity of the “Syrian regime” came in daylight and involved lots of horribly dying children!

Now the Americans will get to destroy the village to save it.

Except they won’t.

There have been plenty of articles speculating about what the “Trump plan” for defeating ISIS/Daesh will be.  I won’t even bother listing them here.  In plain English his plan is, how should I put it, not very complex:

  1. Increase the number of US troops already present in Syria
  2. Offer the Kurds their own autonomous region in exchange for acting like cannon-fodder for Uncle Sam
  3. Liberate Raqqa as a tangible sign of success

In truth, there is nothing new here.  It’s is just a re-heated version of the very same plan Obama had(great minds think alike, and so do the not so great, apparently).

Can you see the problem with this plan?

Let me help here.  Problem #1 – no UNSC Resolution will back it.  Neither will the Syrian government.  But who cares, right?  We already know that Nikki Haley thinks about that: once again the US will arrogantly violate international law under the pretext of “being compelled to take action”.  Welcome back to Bosnia and Croatia!  It’s 1994 again!  We now live in the era of the “RTP – responsibility to protect”.  International Law, RIP.  But that is only a ‘minor’ problem.  The real problem is simple:

Besides the Syrians themselves, the Russians, the Iranians and the Turks are categorically against such a plan.  And these four countries just happen to represent the overwhelming military force in Syria, and all of them *already* have boots on the ground (and air defense systems).  For Turkey especially, such a plan is a casus belli, they have said so many times.  I am no big fan of Turkey or Erdogan (although I do like the Turkish people themselves), but I have to admit that should Trump go ahead with this goofy plan he will live no other choice then to chose between war or civil war.  Mostly likely a combo of both.

Then there are the Kurds.  Actually, in many ways I feel sorry for them and I admire them.  But they have to realize the enormous dangers of accepting the US plan.  First, that means that they will be the frontline cannon-fodder against Daesh which happens to be one of the best trained and experienced infantry force in the region.  But worse, do the Kurds really commit the same historical mistake as the Albanian of Kosovo who have 100% linked their future with Camp Bondsteel and who will be instantly re-invaded by the Serbia as soon as NATO or the US leave (which they will, sooner or later, inevitably).

There is a reason why the US always supports minorities everywhere: because by accepting and relying on that support these minorities always become completely dependent upon the USA.  That, in turn, means that the US can then use these minorities in any way they want “or else”.  And, since sooner or later the Americans leaves, the “or else” inevitably and always happen.

I submit that it would be the hight of folly for the Kurds to commit the same mistake.  Yes, sure, they want their autonomy and/or their own country.  But they have to realize that the only viable way to achieve either objective is by negotiations with their neighbors, not some ignorant US official who will forget about them as soon as he is done promising them the moon.  I would remind the Kurd of a time-honored US tradition here: as soon as things get ugly, the Americans “declare victory and leave”.

That also means that the Kurds might have to settle for less than what they want.  Politics is the art of the possible.  But if the choice is some viable limited autonomy vs full independence followed by an inevitable war against Turkey, Iran, Iraq and Syria then I think that the former is the best possible outcome.  But even if we assume that the Kurds decide to try the “Kosovar option”.

Iran is the number one military power on the ground.  And Hezbollah.  The Syrians are struggling, I will admit to that.  But they are holding and making incremental efforts, some of their best units are actually pretty good.  As for the skies over Syria – they are Russian.

So far, the Americans have not re-heated the “no fly zone” concept, but they might as well, since their entire plan is idiotic to the extreme.  Besides, I simply cannot imagine US generals agreeing to deploy their forces in Syria without air cover (in case you did not know, the US solider cannot fight without air cover.  He just won’t.  It’s “air cover for me or I don’t fight”).  However, air cover for the US forces in Syria imply either a tacit agreement with the Russians and the Syrians, something like what the Israelis apparently have, or an immense risk for the USAF and USN aircraft.  So we are back to negotiating with the Russians and via the Russians, with the Syrians.

In fact, I bet you that this is what the Americans are doing right now.  Quietly negotiating with the Russians.  Problem: the Neocons hate Russia and everything Russian.  And they loathe Putin.  So how does the State Department or the White House negotiate with the Russians while, at the very same time, Congress, the US media and the CIA are all engaging into a hysterical and paranoid hate-campaign against Russia?

So here is Trump’s conundrum: he desperately needs the real enemies of Daesh – Russia, Iran and Syria – to agree to his plan but at the same time, he is too much of a whip to tackle the hate campaign against, well, Russia, Iran and Syria inside the United States.

The Neocons, apparently backed by the CIA and the Pentagon, want to go at it solo: just shoot up all of Syria “OK Corral” style and they seem to be convinced that they can somehow scare the Russians, the Iranians and the Syrian into submission.  If so, then they are both stupid and ignorant.  Or, there is even a worse possibility: the Neocons *know* that this plan will end up in disaster, but they want Trump to go to war anyway because that will destroy his presidency.  That is almost elegant, in a perverted way.

What is sure is that you will never see a Neocon in frontline combat.  Neither they nor their kids will die no matter what they do.  Or so they think.  This is one of the main reasons why these Neocons are the single biggest danger for the United States and the American people: they despise the real American people and they won’t hesitate to sacrifice them, in large numbers if needed (9/11 anybody?).

This is why so many Americans voted for Trump and his promise “to drain the swamp”.

Alas, the swamp drained Trump and all is back to “normal”.

So what happens next?  My fervent hope: nothing.  Absolutely nothing.  As long as the Americans are all talk and as long as they don’t actually do anything, there could be real progress in Syria (Daesh is already loosing the war!).  I hope that the Kurds will, you know, “kinda, sort of, give it a try” and then stop before things go critical.  Should the Kurds really decide to fight for Uncle Sam, I hope that they will keep in mind that the US will dump them as soon as Raqqa is liberated simply because really creating some kind of autonomy for the Kurds against the will of Syria, Iran and, most importantly, Turkey could result in Erdogan really slamming the door on NATO and Turkey leaving the alliance.  Should that happen the only option left for Turkey would be some kind of understanding, and maybe even alliance, with Russia and Iran.  The various domino effect scenarios are almost infinite and nothing is really impossible.

Right now the Americans are still sort of busy liberating Mosul.  I suppose if they stay at it long enough they will eventually succeed, at least for a while.  I don’t see them really controlling the city for very long.  They might build a US ‘consular fortress’ like in Bagdad or Kabul, but that will not mean that they control the city.  If they intend to liberate Raqqa as long as they took to liberate Mosul then this can continue for a long, long while.

There is a scarier possibility: the US begins its operation in Syria, runs into problems, and then begins the endless cycle of escalations and doubling-down.  Sooner or later, that means clashing with the Russians and that could turn ugly very fast.  A direct clash with Iran with equally unpredictable consequences.  If that happens, a lot of Americans will die.

Assuming that there still is somebody rational and sane left in the Trump administration with enough influence, then all this madness can still be stopped.  There is also the very real possibility that the current fight inside the US elites will drain so much energy that nobody will really have to time and energy to engage in very risky foreign military operations.  And if all else fails, maybe somebody will suggest to Trump that a unilateral military intervention in Syria is pure folly and will cost him his presidency.  Maybe this is an argument which he will understand.

2018 will be a very tough year.  I don’t think that there is any hope left for a real change in US policies and I am afraid that we are going to have to learn how to live with some kind of Obama 2.0 or some other form of “neo-neoconism”.

It felt really good to hope for a while.  Now we have to accept that our hopes never materialized and resume the struggle.

The Saker

PS: I just learned that, just as I had predicted, Bannon has been removed from the US National Security Council.  See for yourself: https://www.bloomberg.com/politics/articles/2017-04-05/bannon-removed-from-national-security-council-role-in-shakeup.  Now the coup against Trump is fully completed.  And Bloomberg celebrates “Intelligence director, Joint Chiefs chairman elevated”.  Yeah, no kidding!  It’s over folks, the Neocons have totally crushed Trump. And he did not even given them a halfway decent fight…

Commentary Mag is already celebrating: https://www.commentarymagazine.com/politics-ideas/step-toward-rational-national-security-council/ like it’s Purim all over again.

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  • Derapage

    We have UK+France+US+Turkey+Israel+Saudi+Jordan+EU + Rojava + Al Quaeda vs Russia + SAA + Iran
    And you argue that the US begins its operation in Syria, runs into problems!?
    China will be watching, Beijing does not want to lose its share into WTO.

    • Rodger

      You think you’ve got Turkey or Saudi or Israel or the EU? Lol The problem with the US is they always think it’s a 2 way struggle while this is a clusterfuck with 5 sides at least. 70 years later and they are still fighting WW2…..

      • Derapage

        Yes, I do. I think there is a big coalition ready to act like in the first Gulf War that waged by coalition forces from 35 nations led by the United States against Iraq.

        • Rodger

          That was just against Saddam, one of ‘our’ own with UN support. Totally different thing here.

  • Albert Pike

    ‘idiotic to the extreme’ is an excellent description of the self-made mess, this administration left the armed forces with, for them to try to sort out, and which most likely -considering the bunch at the helm- will just lead right into an even bigger mess…

  • Rodger

    I think you missed another option. Trump is taking the neocon bait not because he believes it but because he wants to see who is at the end of the line. He knows the American public doesn’t want to go to war. He would vastly improve his standing if he was presented with a colored representation of reality by some hawks and he gets rid of them.
    “I was shown falsehoods and lies where they said the were presenting me with fact. But I’m no Bush. Ofc I would go to war if Assad gassed kids or threw babies from incubators but the jury is still out. Generals suchandsuchs have been removed from command for lying to their commander in chief for their own agenda. Senator McCain has been found guilty by a tribunal and has been shot.”
    (A guy can dream right? :P )

    • Albert Pike

      Nice tribunal dream – but it seams like McCain -and those who are behind him- have taken over this administration. Also those two statements from Trudeau and Mattis -out of the blue, within two 2weeks- about the blessings of Islam, could mean that there is something not so obvious cooking, which might have to do with Prinz Mohammed Bin Salman happiness after his visit with Trump some three weeks ago…

      • Rodger

        And what better way to take it back than in this way? Add some USA first talk and some US economic incentives and his support would go wild. If his team can catch them in a big lie he can clean out the lot of them. Removing or seriously crippling the threat from the right.

        • Albert Pike

          Rodger I pray that you are right. But think about the risk it would present to ‘clean out the lot of them’. What if part of ‘them’ are some pillars whose support Trump needs?
          Also this would mean more uproar in the streets. Soros is an expert for uproar, and color coded revolutions. This all with troops in Syria -which might have to do their thing in a big way, at a moments notice- and an intelligence community, which in substantial parts might be working for ‘them’. No -that’s dicey- that might break the nation…

          • Rodger

            The left are gonna protest the removal of some chicken hawks? I don’t think the military will mind getting rid of a few old grumpy generals either.
            And I don’t think the companies behind it are dumb enough to try a direct assault because companies are slimy slugs, they might try to influence with money/bribes but will roll over fast when challenged. With one presidential decree on lobbying/funding that no sitting politician would dare to fight he could set back corporate influence in Washington by 30 years. (Like forbidding politicians influencing legislation concerning corporate donors.)
            This is not a guy that has had to eat a lot of shit to get where he is.
            But we’ll see…. If it wasn’t for the huge loss of life and suffering it will cause I would love to see the Eagle stepping in this mess.

          • hhabana

            Albert, those on the Right have the guns. We will tear “them” apart. The Middle Class is frustrated and worn out and it won’t take long for a rebellion in extreme circumstances. One thing I will say is that there will blood up to the knees if Civil War ever occurred.

    • Jesus

      I agree that Trump is going with the flow to identify the neocon instigators, and see the neocon dynamics.

      • Rodger

        Yeah, if you defeat the 2 main US parties that have been in power for ages at their own game you might seem a complete idiot but you clearly aren’t.
        It would be the smart play. Never struggle when they expect you to struggle. Hit them where it hurts when they are not expecting it. And he could hardly say “Dead kids? So what?” and retain his support. Now lets hope they try to really win him over with some of those Colin Powell drawings or other BS that he can hang them with.
        He might already have the footage from the plane by way of Moscow if it was indeed a chemical ammo dump. :P

  • chris chuba

    Why does Saker only talk about the Kurds and ignore the powerful rebel faction of Al Qaeda?
    It’s now all but guaranteed that the U.S. will support the cancerous tumor around Idlib with state of the art weapons and call it a safe zone which is almost as bad as a large attack on Syria.

    I would not rule out a token ‘Israeli style’ attack on Syria or possibly something even larger.

    • Dustil schmit

      Russia and Iran could of backed kurds early on and would never been in the mess they face now but they put all the odds on to assad.

  • pao

    No, Trump has no backbone and is not some master anti-neocon strategist. The plan for Syria was made long ago, and now he is just falling into line with those that truly run things, the MIC and supporting government factions. I will be overjoyed if proven wrong.

  • Eze Enwereuzor

    Death to Neocons!

    • Solomon Krupacek

      and are so loud cries helpful?

  • Bob

    Kososvo is sort of NATO’s contemporary equivalent of the deceased Soviet dominated East Germany. A fake and contrived, geo-strategic, state-let that will immediately falter should the NATO/EU political sponsorship and economic lifeline cease. Those sort of events are obviously impossible to predict.
    But an independent Kosovo is clearly currently economically unsustainable. The unemployment rate at very best hovers at 30-35%, and GDP needs to be growing at around 8% to absorb the expanding younger population, but simply cannot get anywhere past 3%.
    Independent Kosovo, is primarily a US neo-con driven project, and in reality is an economic net loss for the west, a subsized area denial of Russian influence. However, it is therefore, equally, in the long term extremely susceptible to any major economic crises and variables in west economies of future.