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The Saker: “Will the Trump administration go to war next?”

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Ever since Mr. MAGA made it to the White House, I have been awed by the level of sheer stupidity and, frankly, the immorality of this administration. Obama was almost as incompetent and evil, but Trump truly brought about a qualitative change in what we could loosely refer to as the “average White House IQ.” The best thing I can honestly say about Trump is that stupid can be good. Alas, it can also be extremely dangerous, and that is what is happening now. Just check out these recent headlines:

I have to admit that this last one is my favorite, really!  How cool is that? The US threatens a NATO member state with war (that is what “devastating/serious consequences” means in diplotalk).

Pompeo (surely one of the most evil and delusional idiots in the Trump Administration) was probably trying to emulate the role-model of this entire Administration, Bibi Netanyahu, who once even threatened *New Zealand* with war(well, kinda, I know, they did not really mean “real” war, but they did use war language, which, for a politician, is irresponsible at best).

This would all be very funny if not for the fact that it is pretty obvious that the USA is already engaged in a covert military/terrorist campaign against Venezuela and that the fact that the Maduro government has successfully foiled the “Guaidó revolution” (at least so far) only further enrages the likes of Pompeo.  Besides, the fact that the US military does not appear to have the stomach for a ground invasion does not at all mean that they cannot trigger a Kosovo or Libya type of bombing and missile campaign against Venezuela.

Will the covert war against Venezuela soon turn into an overt one?

Those who now claim that three Russian S-300 air defense battalions (equipped with the export version of the S-300VM – the “Antey-2500”) or even thousands of Russian-made MANPADS can stop the USA simply don’t understand warfare in general and air-defense operations specifically. What these folks do is to take a few figures about, in this case, the theoretical capabilities of the Venezuelan S-300s and then compute how many aircraft/missiles these systems could shoot down. That is not how air defenses work.

[Sidebar: I won’t write a detailed explanation about this topic here. My friend Andrei Martyanov can do that much better than I, but I will just say that to be truly effective, any air defense system has to be 1) multi-level and 2) integrated.  Furthermore, such pseudo-analyses as mentioned above always overlooks the importance of all other factors besides the number and characteristics of the missiles themselves.  But in reality, electronic warfare, network integration, signal processing, combat management systems, etc. play an absolutely crucial role in air defenses.  Even deceptive measures (such as inflatable “tanks” or wooden “aircraft”) can play a central role in the outcome (as it did in Kosovo and Iraq).  The same goes for offensive air operations, of course.  Thus no evaluation of a possible US air attack on Venezuela can be made without analyzing US capabilities, training, procedures, etc.  The truth is that what military experts call “bean counting” is what only pretend-experts engage in.  From a military point of view this is entirely useless and futile]

The sad truth is that absent a multi-level integrated air defense system like Russia has, air defense operations typically turn into a simple numbers game: X number of defensive missiles vs. Y number of attackers. Keep in mind that effective EW (especially SEAD) will *dramatically* reduce the effectiveness of any air defenses. The same applies to whatever number of Su-30 or even Su-35s Russia might deliver to Venezuela.

Now, look at a map and see for yourself: Venezuela is literally in the USA’s backyard (at least in military terms), and the US can bring HUGE numbers of whatever it wants (missiles, bombs, SEAD aircraft, etc.) to the fight. Not only that, but the Venezuelans lack any real counter-attack options, which means that Uncle Shmuel can fire off as many missiles as he wants for weeks and months without ever having to worry about a counter-strike.

It is only political factors protecting Venezuela from an overt US attack, not military factors. The latter are not irrelevant, of course, and I discussed them here.  In military terms, Venezuela is a sitting duck which might be able to deter a ground operation, but which can do nothing against US standoff striking capabilities, at least not against a determined US effort. Against a pretend-strike, like what the Israelis and the USA did in Syria, the Venezuelans could probably meaningfully degrade the number of US bombs/missiles reaching their targets.  But that is all they can reasonably hope for.

What about Syria?

Well, the AngloZionists sure lost the first phase of this war, but they remain unwilling to come to terms with that fact. So now they have defined-down their objectives from “a new Middle-East” or the “animal Assad must go” to “we will never allow peace to break out in Syria.” Not much of a strategy, but that’s is good enough for the Israelis, and that’s all that really matters to Trump or his masters. I don’t want to cover Syria in detail right now, but the simple fact that Pompeo is issuing threats against Turkey really says it all. The Turkish reaction was quite predictable: Turkish Vice President Fuat Oktay declared that “The United States must choose. Does it want to remain Turkey’s ally or risk our friendship by joining forces with terrorists to undermine its NATO ally’s defense against its enemies?”

Feel the love?!

Yes, these are only words, and Turkey remains under NATO/CENTCOM occupation (CENTCOM, which the Iranians have – quite logically-  just declared a terrorist organization!). Still, between the S-400 vs. F-35, the Kurdish issue, the CIA continuous support for Fethullah Gülen or the fact that the (US-controlled) EU never accepted Turkey, all create a potentially explosive background which even a small spark could ignite.

It is equally clear that both the US and Israel will continue to conduct airstrikes, assassinations, support for Takfiri terrorist groups, etc., in Syria for the foreseeable future. Trump’s famous withdrawal from Syria will end up like all his promises: tossed down the memory hole. As for the Israelis, it is absolutely vital (for psychological and ideological reasons) for them to continue to subvert not only Syria but the entire Middle-East. Furthermore, we should *never* forget the Israeli end-goal: to use the USA to destroy any country daring to resist Israeli aggression. On top of that list, there is, of course, Iran.

Simply put: there will be no peace in the Middle-East as long as Palestine is occupied by a gang of racist thugs whose contempt for international law or even basic norms of civilized behavior is as total as their total reliance on deception and violence to subjugate the region and, eventually, our entire planet. Of course, Russia and China will help, as will Iran, but that is unlikely to be enough to achieve a lasting peace (if anything, the latest Israeli statements about annexing even more of Palestine are an indicator of more bad things to come).

The truth is that while the Empire does not have the power to break the will of the Syrian people, it has plenty enough strength left to prevent peace from breaking out in Syria.

Or Iran?

Who knows? It is possible to predict the actions of a rational actor. “Rational” implies a minimal degree of intelligence and sanity. The problem is that we cannot be sure about the intelligence of the folks currently remaining on duty at the Pentagon while we can be absolutely sure that the Israelis are completely insane and delusional (as racists always are). So far, the Israelis have failed to get the US to attack Iran. Clearly, there were some intelligent and sane people at the Pentagon (in the tradition of Admiral Fallon) but how sure can we be that by now they have not all been purged (or corrupted) by the Neocon regime?

[Sidebar: when I speak of the stupidity of the US leaders, I don’t mean that as an insult.  I mean that in a diagnostic sense: these folks are simply not very bright.  Check out Dmitry Orlov’s excellent “Is the USS Ship of Fools Taking on Water?” for a very good discussion of the increasingly important role stupidity is playing in the actions of the Empire.  And Orlov is not the only one thinking this.  By now most Russians are pretty convinced that stupidity and gross incompetence is what best characterizes US decision-making.  If it wasn’t for the very real risks of war, the Russians would spend their time laughing at the cluelessness of the “indispensable nation’s” leaders…]

When I look at the fact that, at least so far, the US has not dared overt military aggression against Venezuela, I cannot imagine anybody at the Pentagon or CENTCOM having the stomach for a war against Iran. But, again, I am assuming intelligence and sanity, which applies neither to Mr. MAGA nor to the Israelis.

The DPRK?  The Ukraine?  Libya?  Country X?

In strategic analysis, one should never say never, but I submit that the chances of a full-scale US military attack on the DPRK, in the Ukraine, in Libya or against Country X (replace X with whatever country you like) are slim. Frankly, that train has already left the station. Of course, “Country X” is vague enough to remain a possibility at least in theory (maybe some new tiny “Grenada” can be identified to, in Michael Ledeen’s immortal words “throw it against the wall, just to show the world we mean business” (after all, that is what this great American hero – Reagan – did after the US had to run from Lebanon), but unless the Trump Administration reaches a new level of incompetence, arrogance, and insanity, I don’t see where Uncle Shmuel might decide to “restore democracy” next.

The Saker: "Will the Trump administration go to war next?"

Any guess as to where these “indispensable” folks will restore democracy next?

Conclusion: Venezuela still in the cross-hairs or already under attack?

When dealing with a terminally dysfunctional administration like the Trump Administration (just look at how often people get sacked or resign from it!  Check here for the latest case), we have to assume that it is capable of the worst, most illogical, and even catastrophically self-defeating actions. An overt attack on Venezuela would undoubtedly fall into this category. We, therefore, need to set aside all the many statements made by various US officials (whether threatening or appeasing) and look at what the US is actually already doing. When we do that, we see that the US is already engaged in warfare against Venezuela, even if this warfare is mostly covert.  Furthermore, this covert warfare has failed, at least so far.  However, and even more worrisome, the US has paid very little, if any, political price for its completely illegal aggression against Venezuela. So the real question is not whether the US will decide to launch a full-scale overt military aggression against Venezuela but whether there are any factors which would inhibit the US from crossing the deniability threshold?

I can think of at least one such factor: the inevitable blow-back against any “Yankee” military intervention in the Latin American public opinion and the subsequent and potentially severe consequences for US puppets (à la Bolsonaro for example) and various comprador regimes (in Colombia for example) on the continent.  Other than that, my biggest hope is that the debacle in Iraq, Afghanistan and elsewhere will be sufficient to persuade US officials that one more military disaster would not yield any benefits to their interests.

The clock is running and the Neocon gang in the White House has to decide either way – blame it all on somebody else (the Venezuelan people, the Russians, the Chinese, Hezbollah, Iran, Martian extraterrestrials, etc.) and leave or try an overt military intervention and hope that things go better than they always do.

What do you think?  Will the Trump Administration go to war and, if yes, where?

The Saker

PS: quick Ukrainian update: neither Poroshenko nor Zelenskii have anything resembling a real program (albeit Zelenskii just released a 10-point “plan” which is simply silly, no point in discussing it now).  Since both of them will be US puppets, this is not a big problem: the course of the Ukraine will not change as a result of this election anyway.  Poroshenko’s campaign in weak, he is trying to cater to the Russian speaking population (he even goes as far as sometimes speaking in Russian, which is technically illegal for him!), but that is way too late by now: everybody hates him and the regime he represents.  Zelenskii, in contrast, has a very dynamic and effective campaign – mostly videos – in which he says stuff which Poroshenko could never say.  Most observers, including myself, think that since the 2nd round of voting is a competition of anti-ratings (negative perception) Zelenskii will win.  Time is running out for Poroshenko, he better come up with something dramatic, or he needs to run.  As for Yulia Vladimirovna, she clearly is in discussions with the Zelenskii people to see if they can form a political coalition in the Rada.  I believe that these negotiations will be kept secret until the 2nd tour, at which point a “coalition of Zelenskii supporting factions” will be created in the Rada.

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paul ( original )

The Saker rather over uses the word ‘stupid’ in his characterization of
the USA administration. I suppose if you think yourself very clever
then indeed others appear stupid. I don’t think this type of rhetoric
is very insightful and does not get us very far.
Stupid or not I think it is reasonably clear that the USA administration
holds the initiative in so much as it is constantly forcing others
into reacting to its challenges and policies. It is also reasonably
clear that the USA causes a lot of problems for those it targets.
All this it does while inflicting much less damage on itself than it
does to others.
By degrees I think that the USA has learnt that it really does not have
to bother with what others think and it immune to international law.
In this it is only acting like the many other strong ‘ nations’ which
have risen to dominance throughout history.

I don’t write this to defend the USA. I simply don’t see name calling
as an adequate explanation. I also believe that it will go on
indefinitely until it is put a stop to by force. Some see this as
imminent, or alternatively predict the USA’s collapse. I for one
can not separate my hopes from my expectations. I don’t believe
anybody else can either.

Albert Pike

Trump isn’t stupid – he just follows zionist or messianic Interesests. That looks like stupid for all the Non-Zionist or Non-Millenarists. For Believers like Kushner -or Pence- it looks clever. Anyway America is for Zionists/Frankists just a way to their prophesied 1000 year reign from the hill of Zion.

The MAGA phrase is the big deceit, it’s all about their mad religion…


Following Zionist interests is the definition of stupid.

Promitheas Apollonious

you got that half right but you underestimate the ones who have dominated the western world since 16th century and caused to it so many genocides and always coming up on top. Simplifying is not the way to understand what is happening or underestimating the ones behind the scenes.


Winning the Stria war shows whose on top and it isn’t Israel and NATO.

paul ( original )

Seeking world domination goes a long way back well before the sixteenth century. The Romans were expert at it using extremely brutal means,
and it had been going on for thousands of years before they came
along. I know you and many others here think they have the perfect
explanation. I don’t know the whole truth of it. But I do know that
America was not always pro Israel. In fact it was American pressure
which forces Israel, Britain and France to withdraw after the Suez
invasion. However , that all changed after the war of 1967. I watched
it happen. It was clearly visible how in a very short time the whole
of the American establishment was co -opted to the Israeli cause.

Promitheas Apollonious

yes it does but what we are experiencing today is exactly because humans took half measures against them and we come in what you experiencing today that started with their come back in 16th century with Cromwell. I dont know who you think he knows everything, but I do know what i know. US always been a colony and never had been free to decide for her destiny but believe what you like does not alter reality and fact.


boring -the use of ‘stupid’ is warranted by the facts. facts you obviously have not been able to interpret or discern – go back and do it again and do it right!


The Saker is right!

U$A is a pro-ISIS, thuggish, mafia state hellhole and those who rule it are stupid, wicked, dumb, senseless and shortsighted imbeciles!



You’re stupid.

Tommy Jensen

i counted 2 occurances of the word stupid or stupidity.
and you???

paul ( original )

Well I was just using a polite form of words whose real meaning is that the word is not appropriate at all.


A summary of what we know.
The usa has not yet given up the self-appointed role of global policeman/trouble maker/terrorist. All the barking indicates that they rely on their past “glory”. Do they have any idea that it works as a charm in making the world see them for who they really are and uniting against them?

Promitheas Apollonious

the world has seen them for what they are. With the exception of their sheeple followers that not only they consider them as their saviors, but also their heroes. If in doubt see how the sheeple voting and you have your answer.


You are entitled to have an opinion. I am free to have mine. As for the “sheeple”… who is the “sheeple”? – those who go to polling stations in hope for a change or those who know already that regardless of voting there is someone, who has already been chosen/appointed by the club of Rome members? Which voting do you want me to see? – the recent voting in the artificial state? That’s a great example. Nothing but a prearranged show. I would refrain from insulting the people who have been reduced to voters, tax-payers and objects to provide incomes.

Promitheas Apollonious

an opinion is a personal conclusion based on well wishing and sometimes on faith. An analysis of peoples behavior and direction is based on facts that come out of peoples actions and deeds. So my conclusions are based on peoples actions.

I am not insulting people just saying what reality in today’s world that is not so new it always been like that there was the sheep followers either to politicians or religion or both and there was always the people who see beyond the surface and had their own mind and ways.

But as you said in your life you have a lot of greys I dont. As to what I want you to see, I am talking with you not trying to direct you any where, beside thinking.


The people’s behavior was to replace Israel first with America First. But you’re to stupid to admit what’s plain to see.


“But as you said in your life you have a lot of greys I dont.” I never said anything like that. Do not put words in my mouth. As for thinking- it looks like you have to start practicing. I have survived and enjoyed life so far without your precious advises. No, thanks.

Promitheas Apollonious

“black&white, right &wrong,yes&no. You might be getting your news from the rothschilds’ HQ“

I dont put words in your mouth this is what you wrote. Insinuating thing’s in order to have an argument?


Sheeple = christian zionists mostly.


They voted for America First but got Israel first instead. After Trump capitulated to the vermin Jews.

Decatur Guy

Israelis will turn on america in like manner as did “jews” after the Germans took in “jewish” russian refugees following their failed attempt to kill the czar in 1905.


Jews have been subversives all along.

Decatur Guy

Subversives, you say? Take a gander at the link. I’ve read the “remnant” is frequently thrown in the the waiting arms (mouths, actually) of women who devour it. Yes, consume it with a demonic fervor. It’s thrown in like manner as the bride tossing her bouquet.


On the humorous side. If you have read the link to understand what the guy’s saying in his video at 2:53. It’s honestly funny.



Judaism should be outlawed and the planet dejudified so that it’s Jew free.


It does simply not matter, if the US-Army sets the boots on the ground, as modern warfare follows political and economical interference only second.

The question that has to occur is: In what magnitude could this interference (call it sanctions, pressure, or simply ‘humanitarian aid’) actually harm the cival services and infrastructure of the Maduro government and lead to a break down and civil unrest.
If these ambitious succeed, it simply does not matter if there are troops on the ground.

Lazy Gamer

It depends how much of an opening, the other country provides the US or how effective false flag provocations are. Of course resource considerations are icing,

For NK – it might be additional missile testing or acceleration of nuclear tech
For Venezuela – how many civilians get killed in protests
For Syria – more gassing, assad is killing his people, genocide against kurds
For Ukraine – threshold here is higher since this is Russia’s backyard. More sanctions are much probable.
SCS – Depends on the trade deal, unacceptable military facilities built thereon. But this will just result in denunciation or sanctions.
Iraq – Depends on presence of Iran. Feasibility of continuing Kurd autonomy

Iran – Depends on the agitation of protesters. Depends if they can hit nuclear facilities with a military grade virus again

Afghanistan – BRI, feasibility of using this as a launchpad against Iran, Pakistan, investment protection

Some terrorist group which is responsible for mass casualties and will be traced to country x – the second 911
A military mistake


the problem for the u.s. of israel is that the things you have listed are not working anymore
+ there are countries read RU+CN+ others that are willing to call it’s bluff.

the boltons have had their “15 minutes of fame.”

Tommy Jensen

Trump is not that bad.
No matter what he ends up with, he will still be 10 times better that the green deal bloodsuckers.

paul ( original )

People like to ventilate their anger by name calling. I just think that makes people look silly and ineffective ( see a few of the comments below). The thing is that if you look at it dispassionately Trump is using bombastic and bullying language to get his own way internationally without really having to expend very much in the way of effort. From a purely pragmatic point of view that is not a bad strategy for a nation to use. This is providing it can be pulled off successfully, and Trump is borderline in this respect.
If I was an American I think my main disappointments would be the lack of action on domestic project that were promised but are yet to fulfilled. The international stuff is for you a bit of a distraction in my opinion.


Trump is a suprimasist, racist , narcissist, an aggressive and immoral personality who better go back and organize beauty contests and grab some ass and breasts .


Trump is NOT stupid by any means. He plays his base like a virtuoso. His role in government is to get elected then distract the electorate and the opposition by focussing on the dog whistle issues like immigration and border walls while the wonks behind the scenes do the business of government.

The man is ignorant, crass and a boor …. he has the intellectual knowledge of a toad …. not because he’s stupid but because he doesn’t give a shit. His political instincts and ability to persuade the masses are genius ….. reminiscent of a mid century politician whose name eludes me at the moment …. only as I recall that leader was a patron of the arts and had a broad vision of a utopian society for his people. Trumps motivation is his own personal gain, ego and revenge for the public humiliation he suffered at a white house press gala a few years back.


>VE being in the u.s.’s backyard is an advantage for VE.
>RU and CN are already in the loop, much earlier than in the mid-east. They are loose cannons.
>Will the VE population already in the u.s. condone the destruction of their country?
( approx 180k live in FL today)
>Jungle warfare is something the u.s is not any good at.
>Leveling Caracas is not an option. What do you have when that is done?
>The u.s. will lose the rest of S.A., C.A. and Mexico. That’s a done deal.
>Force will not topple VE anymore than it toppled Viet Nam, Korea, Syria etc, ad nauseum.
>Juan Guano is already on the skids. He will not recover.

imo it’s not about the number of bombs you have.
this is chess and not checkers.


Stupid, hehe, they apear that, but that comes from their ability to consider them selfs as the peak of ugh…. evolution, expetional and regards europa as decadent and old, their reality isnt the same as our by any standard, just go there and talk to people, they have no problems with bombing, because its their god dammed right, and that is how they deal with the world, as their own garden, and we are, what, weeds.

They have had an consistency that is remarkable, their propaganda is jaw dropping in its extent, and mind numbing in its depth, everything you know is more or less, either faked, hidden/wisted or simply lied about, 95% is basically bollocks.
I could go on for days, on how much is in fact bollocks, from ancient history to day, and I am a but tired of repeating my self, one thing you never must forget, the inflow of people whom claims they know, and to them that is there to obfusicate, is exponetaly increasing this days, on everything from China to Jesus, and Jesus for the nt….time, never was, never will be an Jew.
That, perseption and whatever writing it is coming from can be regaded as totall bollocks, and the present bible is an revisionaised and massaged to oblivion and is an genuine fraud, created by an scam artists, the Shoefield bible is only usable for one thing, wiping your ass with, period.

The old testament aka the so called Torrah, that one is even worse faked and distorted, and if you want the untuched ones, you probably have to go to the Horn of Africa, if the rats havent burned (its currious how this so called terror groups are procupyed with burning old books incl even the Quran, think about that for an moment, its an reason for this, acts) this ones down already as they have bombed Palmyra, the home of the so called Chatolic church, another scam, but hey, you got the mans man him self here, The Poop, what did Jesus him self say about churches and others pretending to be god spokepeson, huh, enlighten me, and don come with the present scam bible, its totally useless.

And so on.

The truth is Saker, it looks like something big is coming, since the NZ scam was exposed, and disidents cencured and even taken in by the police, etc, etc, to remove any questionable issues or otherwise when the next, FF comes, and it may be Iran, Pakistan, etc, and I have Iran as the numbero uno target, the Venezuela (or in one of the in/famus axis of evil, now on the amercian continent, how convinient) coup is probably just crumbling (but again, can be reviatlised thru an FF) , but never take your eyes from ISISrael, when the Lithuanian sweage rat is given charte blanche to do whatever He wants, what could possibly go wrong, timing, I am a bit uncertain, since they deal with in time frames so long, we all have witnessed politicians come and go, presidents come and go, political partys come and go, the economic scam is roling on, other scams as the cap and trade aka carbon catch scams are roling on and kicks our power bils to new and unpresedented hights this days, of course, because of the marked (CO2), is due to something much more dangerous than this pupets, something is keeping the doctrines alive and kicking, from Wolfowitch to Monore, for centurys, since its creation, that, Saker is the people we must flush out and shine the light on, and to me, the Jewish question is just one of many, economy is the one I know is where the Beast is berried, shrowed behind curtains, just look at how much attacked isnt the Italians whom is finaly, at least, doing something to save their own land and people from an parasitic entiry humanity have suffered under for f….. milleniums, the central banking.
The one ring to bind them all, the one into darkness binds us.
They dont even hide it anymore.

This was the reason for me and maybe others to show how deep the lies and desite trully goes, and I warned you, truth hurts, if it dont hurt, its probably not true enough.
Thats why I brought up Hitler, and why WW2 happened, and I never acused the people (germany and russia, infact much closer than they think, but not thru what they “know” regarding what people), I always go for the head, and like before, its the head that leads the body, chop it of and the body is free, its an class war, us and them, and right now we are loosing. But I guess, in all humbleness, the great one may come, but not yet, but within the next presidency, because right now, the best tool the neoCONs and Trump have, is the shit for brain DeamonCrauts, and an the MSM, they, are the ones that will shure us that Tumpstein and Co will endure another term I dont doubt that at all.
Then, we will see.
BUT, its the rest of the world that will, and do have the chanse to turn this insane empire around, if the world dont do anything, ignore the raving 800 pound Gorrila, high on power tripping, and theatens anyone on their path to glory, and world dominance, we will surelly loose.
What comes first, colaps and ww3, your guess is as good as mine, just watch it when the heroin injections goes dry, and then the plug is rippen off, yup, that, maybe already happening, so the next issue is, where the hell did I put the popcorn.
Blessed by the peacemakers.


Miroslav Beran

There is no need for use of vulgar words as “stupid”. Mr. Saker as real gentleman may use calling the events by real names, for example:

Is launching of 105 cruise missiles into another country without mandate of UNSC a war crime?

Of course, Yes. So call this as War Crime and folks involved as War Criminals.

So, no need for using childish vulgar words as “stupid”.

Until whole world understand what was Khazaria Empire and what consequences had their conversion from phallus adoring religion to judaistic religion and later fall of this empire, there will no peace in Mid East.

Apartheid II regime may fall by the same way as Apartheid I regime. comment image

chris chuba

I always feel smarter after reading Saker but his casual reference to Pompeo was spot on … “Pompeo (surely one of the most evil and delusional idiots in the Trump Administration) ”

Pompeo excels at lying, he is a shameless liar, he lies more often and more blatantly than anyone else in the Trump Administration, he elevates my opinion of Rex Tillerson.

Would love your thoughts, please comment.x