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The Saker: What Does The Empire’s Agony Mean For The “Jewish State Of Israel”?

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The Saker: What Does The Empire’s Agony Mean For The “Jewish State Of Israel”?

Former Israeli Defense Minister Avigdor Lieberman and the F-35I

Written by The Saker; Originally appeared at The Unz Review

First, let’s begin with a few (apparently unrelated) recent news items:

These apparently unrelated news items all have one thing in common: the illustrate how weak and ineffective the US armed forces have become over the past couple of decades.  And while, for the sake of brevity, I chose just three examples, the truth is that there are hundreds of similar stories all over the Internet, all pointing to the same reality: most of the US military is in a terminal state of disrepair.

Let’s look at the various services one by one:

  • The USN‘s entire surface fleet is now compromised due to its carrier-centric structure.  The USN also lacks modern cruise missiles.  Entire classes of surface ships are now either outdated (frigates) or have major design failures (LCS).
  • The USAF flies mostly Cold War jets, often modernized, but all in all, it is an outdated fleet, especially when compared to Russian or Chinese 4th++ and 5th generation aircraft.  In fact, the absolute disaster of the F-35 program means that for the first time in its history the US aircraft will be qualitatively outgunned by its likely adversaries.  Even US AWACS and other reconnaissance aircraft are now threatened by Russian and Chinese very long range anti-air missiles (both ground and air launched).
  • As for the US Army and Marine Corps, the embarrassing disasters in Iraq, Afghanistan and elsewhere prove that the US ground forces are basically only able to protect themselves, and even that not very well.
  • Then there are the recently created Space Forces which exist only on paper and the US Coast Guard which is basically irrelevant in a major war.

Finally, there is the US Special Operations Command, which is not one of the service branches but only a “functional” and “unified combatant” command, but which is often thought of as a separate branch of the armed forces.  These forces always look great on propaganda rolls, but the truth is that these putatively “best in the word” (what else?!) forces have yet to achieve even their first real, meaningful, operational success anywhere (at least to balance out their long history of abject failures, from Desert One, to Grenada, to Afghanistan, to Libya, etc.).  And a minor firefights against a much inferior adversary do not qualify.

Now let me ask the crucial question: what does that mean for Israel?

Well, first, it means that the “poor” Israelis now have to fly with the F-35 as their flagship fighter.  In most cases, I would trust the Israelis to modify/upgrade their F-35’s to get rid of at least the worst “features”, but in the case of the F-35 this is not even theoretically possible due to profound design flaws (for those in need of an “official” refresher on the catastrophic reality of the F-35 program, please read this official US government report which includes 276 “critical” deficiencies).  Sooner rather than later, the Israeli F-35s will meet the export version of the Su-35, the much cheaper but high-performing Mig-29M/MiG-35 or even a Russian Su-57 and then they will be hopelessly outgunned (even if the outcome of any air-to-air combat cannot be reduced to comparing aircraft, you need a full and much more complex picture to model possible outcomes).  Currently, the Su-35 has only been exported to China, but future potential operators could include Egypt, Algeria and Turkey.  As for the MiG-29M/MiG-35, countries such as Egypt and Syria have expressed interest.

Speaking of Syria, so far we have seen several cases of Israeli aircraft intercepted and forced to withdraw by Russian Su-35Ss, and not a single case of the opposite.  There appears to be at least one case, though not confirmed officially (yet?) of a Russian Su-35S chasing away an USAF F-22 (once the Su-35 and the F-22 are in close enough proximity, the latter has very few hopes of survival).

Can you guess what else the Israelis are going to eventually meet in the skies over the Middle-East? Possibly an export variant of the MiG-31 or even Russian MiG-31BMs (with their 400km R-37 air-to-air missiles).  In fact, the range, speed, radar and weapons of this aircraft would make it possible for Russia to maintain combat air patrols over, say, Syria while operating from southern Russia.

I dwell on these aircraft because in the past, and just like the US, the Israelis have always relied on the following combination of factors to prevail:

  • A surprise attack (more or less justified by a false flag or by preemption)
  • The destruction of enemy aircraft when they are still on the ground
  • Air superiority to protect for rotary-wing aircraft and advancing armor

True, the Israelis still have a large force of modified F-16/15/18 (14 squadrons, over 300 aircraft), but just like their US counterparts, they are rapidly becoming dated.  In sharp contrast to the dated Israeli Air Force, Israeli neighbors are all acquiring more and more advanced air defense systems along with EW and battle management systems.  In other words, this is a very bad time for Israel to reply on F-35s for the foreseeable future.

Right now, the Israelis are regularly bombing Syria, but with very little result other than the mantric, and no doubt therapeutic, proclamations of Jewish superiority over the Arabs.  And, predictably, the Ziomedia watching folks in Israel and the West are very impressed.  The Syrians, the Iranians and Hezbollah, not so much…

Just like the US MIC put all its eggs into the F-35 basket, so did the Israelis put all their national security eggs into the eternal willingness and capability of Uncle Shmuel to come and rescue them with money, weapons or even soldiers.

The willingness is still here.  But the capability is quickly disappearing!

Furthermore, there are two more countries which are entering a period of severe instability which will also affect the security of Israel: Turkey and Saudi Arabia.

In the case of Turkey, the relationship between the US and Turkey is about as low as it ever has been, and there is a very real possibility that, with US sanctions and threats, the Turks might decide to give up on the F-35 and turn to a Russian aircraft, most likely an export version of the Su-35.  While that would be (politically) bad news for the US MIC, it would be absolutely terrible news for the Israelis whose relationship with Turkey is generally rather bad.  So far, Turkey is still an obedient member of NATO, with all that entails, but the weaker the AngloZionist Empire becomes, the bigger the chances of some kind of political clash between the US and NATO on one hand, and Turkey on the other.

As for the Saudis, they have already been actively courting Moscow because they have realized that Russia has basically replaced the USA as the number one regional power.  The total failure of the US to provide meaningful assistance to the Saudis in Yemen and the inability of the US air defenses to protect the Saudi oilfield from Houthi missile strikes has convinced the Saudis that from now on, they need to talk to the Russians directly and often.

The Saker: What Does The Empire’s Agony Mean For The “Jewish State Of Israel”?

Click to see the full-size image

True, the US still does have the appearance of real power in the Middle East.  Just take a look at this page from the latest IISS Military Balance.  There are still a lot of CENTCOM equipment and personnel in the region.  But try to look beyond these fancy graphics and ask yourself: what are these forces doing?  what are they actually achieving?

I would submit that most of what they do is to try to impress the locals, make money (by all sorts of military contracts) and, last but not least, they try to protect themselves.  And yes, the US’s “footprint” in the Middle-East is still big, but that is also what makes US forces so vulnerable to attacks.  The Iranians, for example, have made it clear that they see all these facilities and forces as “targets” which, following the high-precision Iranian missile attacks following the murder of General Suleimani, means that Iran now has the means to inflict major damage on any regional force crazy enough to mess with Iran.

Of course, every time somebody writes that the USA or Israel are not invincible, there is always at least one person saying something like “yeah, maybe, but they got nukes and they will use them if they are threatened”.  To this my reply is different for the case of USA and for the case of Israel.

In the case of the USA, while any first use of nukes will result in a political suicide for the Empire, no US adversary in the Middle-East has the capability to retaliate in kind against the USA.

In the case of Israel, however, things are even much more serious.

First, we need to remember that for obvious geographical reasons, the Israelis cannot use nukes on attacking forces, at least not forces anywhere near the Israeli border.  Still, if seriously threatened, the Israelis could claim that another “Holocaust” is about to happen and that the “defense of Jewish blood” leaves them no option but to use nukes on, say, Iranian or Syrian targets.  I submit that the worse the damage inflicted by any such Israeli nuclear strikes, the stronger the resolve of the Arabs and/or Iranians will be.  That is the problem with deterrence: once it has failed, it has totally failed and there is usually no “plan B”.

Does that mean that a major attack on Israel is inevitable?

No, not at all.  For one thing, both the USA and Israel can still inflict immense damage against any country, or coalition of countries, which would threaten them (and they don’t need to resort to nukes to achieve this).  The fact that neither the USA nor Israel can achieve anything resembling a “victory” in no way implies that attacking the US or Israel is easy or safe.  Both countries have plenty of conventional military power left to extract a huge price from any attacker.

Secondly, it is precisely because the US and Israel have a lot of military power left that their adversaries will favor a gradual and slow weakening of the AngloZionists over an open confrontation.  For example, while it is true that the US did not have the stomach to attack Iran following the Iranian retaliatory missile strike, it is also true that the Iranians carefully “tuned” their response so as not to force the US to strike back.  The truth is that right now neither country wants an open war.

The same can be said of Syria and Hezbollah who have been very careful not to do anything which would force the Israelis (or the US) to escalate from the current symbolic/pin-prick attacks to real, meaningful, air and missile strikes.

Right now the USA can still print enough dollars to maintain Israel afloat, but we already know that while throwing cheap money at a problem is often very tempting, this does not constitute a sustainable strategy, especially when the actual military capabilities of both the USA and Israelis are rapidly degrading.  Right now, nobody knows how much longer the last openly racist regime on the planet will last, but it is exceedingly unlikely that the Zionist entity will be able to survive without the Empire to prop it up.   In other words, sooner rather than later, the “Jewish state of Israel” will have no better chances of survival than, say, the “Independent State of Kosovo” or, for that matter, the “Independent Ukraine”: they are all the ugly metastases of the Empire which by themselves are simply not viable.

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Zionism = EVIL

The lardass Americunts are kaput, so the thieving, child killing and land rustling Zionist rotten parasitic cunts are destined for the garbage heap of history, like their Nazi and Apartheid cousins.

Concrete Mike

They still think their 4th reich will.last 1000 years.

LOL

Zionism = EVIL

Yep, and now millions are begging in the mean streets of AmeriKKKA with 120 million homeless, jobless and hopeless. In mere 70 years, the Jew parasites plunder and endless delusional wars for “full spectrum domination” has turned the average dumbass ignorant Americunt redneck into a shameless beggar. The Zionists have plundered over $5 TRILLION since the toxic cancer was planted in Arab Palestine by the limey devious backstabbing cunts in 1948.

The United States reacted instead like Pakistan or Israel—like a country without any government or ability to handle a major crises. One fine morning the Americans woke up to find themselves citizens of a failed state.

Ashok Varma

US is a weak vulnerable superficially militarized state that has failed its citizens for the benefit of a few Jew banks and the corrupt self-serving military-industrial complex that Eisenhower even warned against.

Gary Sellars

Zionistan is a doomed regime. That filthy racist apartheid warmongering terrorist nation will cease to exist and its spawn will evaporate like dew (jew) drops in a desert sun.

Children in future, doing their history homework, will ask their parents “Dad, what was Israel”? and the father will say “No idea son, never heard of it”….

Ashok Varma

That is a general global consensus, Israel is unsustainable on every possible grounds from immorality to a begging bowl Apartheid economy and BDS alone, if applied globally will kill it.

Porc Halal

you can’t assume by default that BDS is good since it is a weapon used by the islamist MB terrorist organization who actualy engineered it…

Jens Holm

Saker is a systematic fake site of the worst kind.

AJ

The Saker is far more knowledgeable than you any day.

rightiswrong rightiswrong

My door is more knowledgable than Jens, he still worships his Queen, thinks she is God on Earth ffs.
He’s a kowtowing, bend the knee subject who does what his betters tell him. Anyone who worships an inbred woman who he calls HM, is a muppet of the highest order.

Peter Bozich

Deny the enivitable, both U.S and Israel are cooked like a red lobster lol

Traiano Welcome

You are a systematic fake of the worst kind. Mr. Hasbara Troll masquerading as a Dane.

Ashok Varma

US has failed its people and squandered its future in a blink on eye from Indian, Chinese or Persian historical perspective. US had so much to offer if it had not been hijacked by a greedy narcissistic hubris laden cabal of banksters, crooks, warmongers and ponzi scammers in a corrupt casino economy. Israel and Pakistan’s creation by the insidious British has proven to be the dead-weight Albatross around the US and European necks.

Zionism = EVIL

This is hilarious, no wonder Iranian pilots are perhaps the most aggressive and best in the world. An IRIAF Phantom F-4E gets a missile lock on a Americunt F18 Hornet and watch the dumbass Americunts run off as the Phantom stays on its tail over the straits of Hormuz, the land underneath is little piece of Emirati shithole that juts north near the Omani border, I know that area very well from old flight maps. This was just posted on Russian media as the Russians monitor the Persian Gulf closely as well.

https://t.me/new_militarycolumnist/34154

jm74

Comparison between F22 and Mig31 demolishes the F22. F4 is an exceptional plane, noisy and difficult to fly.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kmfkpTpW7Mo

Zionism = EVIL

Iranians also have the advantage of at least 6 batteries of S-300 and dozens of Bavar 373, BUK, Tor1 and Sayyad 2 in the area south of Jask, and if the Americunt would have acted aggressively, the trigger happy Sepah would have unleashed dozens of SAMS. The Americunts know the consequences. The F-4E with the J-79 upgraded Iranian engines can match the Hornet in pitch and yaw, and has higher combat ceiling. At lower deck, the F-4E if piloted by skilled flyer with a good RIO can match or better the F/A 18 Hornet which is also same weight, the F-4E fully laden has a slightly longer range. The big advantage with Iranian F-4E are some very skilled and experienced RIO who are good at managing the combat tree, freeing the pilot to deal with the treat.

An Iranian fighter again did what looked like a ‘Top Gun’ move near a US Navy FA-18 “Super Hornet”.

occupybacon

You’ll attract the jealousy of the Russian pilots :)

Daily Beatings

Russian pilots can go supersonic. F35 pilots? No so much:

https://www.popularmechanics.com/military/aviation/a32304032/f-35-supersonic-flight/

I don’t think Russian pilots are jealous of anything. :)

occupybacon

You’re talking about UFOs here

Swift Laggard II

[The US flies mostly Cold War jets, often modernized,
but all in all, it is an outdated fleet, especially when compared to
Russian or Chinese 4th++ and 5th generation aircraft.]…..this is a joke, rubb1sh in fact. let’s be serious

occupybacon

The Chinese and Russian modern jets are modest copies of the American ones

Daily Beatings

Minus any of the shortcomings. Of course the F35 not being able to go supersonic for extended periods is a feature and not a bug, right?

occupybacon

How come SU 57 is trying so hard to look like F 22?

occupybacon

How come SU 57 looks so much like F 22?

Traiano Welcome

Please. Do some basic research.

occupybacon

Just do some basic google images search

Traiano Welcome

You do realise that the evolutionary design algorithms that optimise these aerodynamic designs will arrive at very similar shapes given the same requirements and input parameters right ?
Given that the same laws of aerodynamics apply in the USA and Russia …

occupybacon

Only 20 years later. And the Russian and Chinese versions still look more brute.

Traiano Welcome

They are different planes.

The only MEANINGFUL similarities they have is that they both look like fighter jets.

The Su-52 is longer, wider and taller, with bigger calibre guns.
It has a higher ceiling, longer range, more thrust than the f22.

Based on those factors alone it should be obvious shape comparison is meaningless, unless you mean they copied the shape and built everything inside better – because they though “Whoa – cool shape, we’ll steal that and fill it with superior everything!”

Nobody copies a shape and fills it with completely different engineering under the skin. Why? To make the shape fly?

The Su-52 Engines are evolutions of an original Soviet design (Saturn AL-31) – nothing copied off the F22 there. History of these original Soviet designs:

“In 1947 the first Soviet turbojet planes were equipped with turbojet engines, developed by Lyulka’s OKB. The USSR became the third country in the world (after England and Germany) to create their own turbojet engines. Under his supervision, Lyulka’s OKB developed dozens of types of turbojet engines, marked ‘AL’. Planes, equipped with AL engines set more than 50 world records. The modified model of the Saturn AL-31, the development of which began in 1973, still remains the best engine for highly maneuvering fighter aircrafts.”

So the lineage of the Su-57 PREDATES the F22. You should be asking yourself who copied who ;-)

Here, I did some of your research for you, you can do the rest:

https://www.militaryfactory.com/aircraft/compare-aircraft-results.asp?form=form&aircraft1=20&aircraft2=782&Submit=COMPARE

occupybacon

F22 copied SU57 of courss

pp

Hopefully Israel will finish off Iran adn we Indians will finish of Pakistan :D

AJ

Nah you Indians might finish off a curry nothing else.

pp

We Indians might be poor but when it comes to courage no one can beat us.We cut pakistan into 2 in 1971 if u dont know.

<>

Don’t mind the trolls here pp, they hate whoever talks against their terrorists. Stay strong and brave against the Paki terrorists. Respect.

Z1

Indians treat Kashmiris like Ziofascists treat Palestinians so Zionists are like Nazis treating Jews – got it?

<>

Cry.

Z1

Try.

Raptar Driver

Indians aren’t even a people.You are a mix of races and ethnicities and religions, truly mutts

Arch Bungle

But Pakistan cut itself off from you. And so did Bangladesh. So …

pp

If they do that, every country surrounding China will help us and crush both the pakis and dog eaters(Chinese). Letem try that :D

verner

nah hopefully the alliance of turkey, iran, syria, hezbollah and iraq will finish off the jew’s existence in palestine – the only way to go and achieve peace in the middle east.

Arch Bungle

Pakistan is under Chinese protection.

The Chinese would invade and take over Pakistan if India happened to destroy it. The Chinese have no choice, since India in control of Pakistan means control of strategic heights.

Then India would have a great red dragon on it’s borders …

pp

If they try that those dog eating assholes(China) would have to face a combined force of South east asian nations, Australia,Russia and Japan. Dog eaters will collapse and we will grab as much land as we can from those dog eating assholes.

igybundy

israel had almost a century to set things right but they never wanted to compromise ever.. This is seen since the early beginnings. Everything else is an excuse for the greater israeli project. Countries much smaller exist.. The aim of a large country with slaves to work for them.. Like a colonial plantation is the israeli dream.. Too late now. Neither that or a compromise will be available.

Bill Rood

Deagel not only predicts US population of only 100 million in 2025; it
also predicts Israeli pop to fall from 8.3 million to less than 4
million: http://www.deagel.com/country/forecast.aspx?pag=3&sort=GDP&ord=DESC

<>

Hey LR, I agree that if we ever lost then either the U.N stepped in, or we would use the Samson Option. However, I don’t see anyone winning us in a conventional war, as they would have to take over entire Israel and that means also fighting few more millions armed citizens. Like I always say, a war might be bad for us, but it will always be alot worse for our enemies.

Traiano Welcome

> in a conventional war, as they would have to take over entire Israel
and that means also fighting few more millions armed citizens

The Palestinians in the West Bank and Gaza would be joining in, there’s a few million of them too.

<>

So I guess it would be an epic fight, don’t you think? may the best one win.

Arch Bungle

It will be a massacre.

But the Palestinians are an empathetic people.

They will allow the Jews a home in Gaza.

<>

Sorry Gaza stinks, we would rather keep or land to ourselves. Bibi is going to annex the Jordan Valley, I guess that’s the price they pay for refusing Trump’s deal.

<>

It won’t happen, for obvious reasons.

<>

Actually LR, what will happen is that after we annex the Jordan Valley then we will be attacked from Hezbollah and Hamas at the same time. Then we would mobilize our entire army against them and make sure Gaza and Lebanon won’t be a threat anymore.

<>

We don’t need Assad LR, if he knows whats best for him then he would not let Iran use Syria to help Iranian militias. If he does, the IDF will also target the SAA.

<>

If it has to happen, so be it. We will take our chances, if they can win us they will have the Golan back. However, if they lose…Damescus won’t be the same.

Arch Bungle

“Then the IDF go on to beat Hezbollah”

IDF could not beat Hezbollah when Hezbollah was a baby.
How can it beat Hezbollah when it is a grown man?

Arch Bungle

Your Sampson option is a joke.

I HOPE YOU USE IT!

It will GUARANTEE that no Jewish state will ever exist on this earth again.

Thereafter, nobody will allow another Jewish state to emerge with the potential to commit nuclear suicide.

And it will guarantee that Jews across the entire earth will be crushed as punishment for unleashing nukes upon mankind.

John

I liked the article, no way to avoid the fall. One more thing to add….. I think Israel is in for a very tough time with the new breed of politicians up and coming in the US. They don’t give a rat’s ass about religion, or even the idea of a Creator. They are their own gods, not AIPAC. Good luck with them.

cechas vodobenikov

saker merely states the obvious. each flea bitten dog—USA, Israel, Turkey r declining by virtue of their own incompetence, malevolence and internal corruption.( now the fleas r larger and more numerous; soon the vultures will be enjoying a final meal)…we have already observed that neither the US or Israel adhere to international law—-the UN has become frozen and impotent…as the decaying empire fizzles into its marijuana and obesity epidemic, declining more rapidly under the weight of its corrupt ineffective military and structurally fragile economies, the descent will accelerate—Israel lacking a mommy to protect it will transform into an even more fascist and smaller failed state….turkey the same—already unable to sustain their imperialism in Libya and Syria, their domestic conditions r declining more quickly than in the American cultural desert

Traiano Welcome

>The UN resolution does not call for destruction of Israel.

Nobody cares about the UN resolutions when the chips are down.

If Israel pushes it’s luck, it will be like 2006: The defeat of Israel came first, followed by UN resolutions to save them from Hezbollah. Israel can’t hide behind the UN if it goes too far.

Arch Bungle

The USA is the only thing standing between Hezbollah, Syria, the Palestinian Resistance and Israel. If the USA collapses, not even Sampson can save it.
Israel will be picked apart in months.

verner

think you’re wrong – israel is nothing but a failed geopolitical experiment set about by lloyd.george about 1916 or thereabouts. the beneficiaries of the experiment have continually since day one transgressed any kind of basic human laws and have without a shadow of a doubt forfeited the right to continue to live in palestine and must therefore either feck of somewhere else (although there won’t be anywhere in the world where they’ll be welcome) or fight to the last inch of their lives, which they will not win. nothing much about it. the jews have to go from the middle east!

Phoron

Fear not, fellow Americans; we only need to shovel another few hundred billion Zogbux into the furnace known as the “F-35 Lightning II” and it will be a real combat aircraft, I promise.

Ivan Freely

“Russia will force to adhere to UN orders”

Why just Russia? Doubtful IF it’s against Russian interests. The UN is toothless and cannot force anyone; not even Israel.

Arch Bungle

Russia has veto power. It will give the middle finger to UN resolutions it doesnt like.
Besides, Russia has no dog in the fight between Hezbollah and Israel.

Porc Halal

something is wrong with this picture…this operation looks more like jews-run hollywood style operation… it’s very dubious … I mean, with a few light boats, a few weapons and a bunch of ‘Rambos’, you can’t overthrow a government …

Arch Bungle

The Saker is being conservative. Israel won’t slowly fade away over time, it will collapse within 9 years.

<>

lol in your dreams.

Tommy Jensen

This is completely misunderstood. What the Author dont understand is that we have secrets under the carpets.
Russia is amateurish and unprofessional because they brag in public about their capabilities, while we never brag but keep it classified and secret as professionals, pretending toward our enemies that we are agony……………………………LOL.

We have secrets nobody knows a shet about.
Especially in space where we are prepared to scrutinize and attack with photonic speed with space laser any enemy that even think about attacking an American……………………………..LOL.
And we have biological virus weapons you wont even dream about who can erase entire continents if you dont behave and understand it!!

Assad must stay

How exactly did Iran “tune” their response attack on the airbase in Iraq?

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