Writtenby The Saker; Originally appeared at his blog
Mommy! Daddy! Look at the circus that came to town! :-)
Well, it sure looks like the Ukrainian elections will be very interesting after all. No, they probably won’t change anything truly important, but what is taking place is most interesting indeed. I just want to mention a few things bullet-point style, not a real analysis (that will be for after the election), but maybe somewhat of a preview. So, here’s what’s on my list:
The total collapse of Poroshenko: I just don’t have the time to go into all the (admittedly sexy) details, but I can tell you that Poroshenko’s campaign is in total disarray, every move he has made so far has been stupid and even counter-productive and after each one of this moves, his popularity score went even further down, without Zelenskii having to say a single word. At this point, the supporters of Poro (they are called the “Porokhobots” in Russian) are desperate and most of them are switching sides as fast as they can (betraying just at the right moment, not too early and not too late, is a Ukrainian specialty and a skillset which Ukie political leaders have honed to perfection over the centuries!). Another very worrying development for Poro is that his political opponents (including the quite charismatic, if rather brutish, Nadezhna Savchenko) are being let go free from the jails they were being held in. Furthermore, there are rumors (unconfirmed so far) that the Ukrainian State Bureau of Investigations is prosecuting pretty much the entire Urkonazi regime for various crimes, which is also a pretty good indicator that the ship is sinking and the rats running for their lives…
Frankly, at this point I don’t even think that Poro has the resources to pull off something significant as even his allies and aides are now abandoning him and refusing to carry out this orders. He had a chance to try to pull-off some false flag or provocation, and he missed it. Now it appears to be too late even for that.
Zelenskii sitting very pretty: amazing, Zelenskii is both 1) doing great and 2) doing nothing. How is that for a winning strategy?! Really, I am not kidding, Poro’s Ukronazis are so busy committing political seppuku that all Zelenskii has to do is watch, laugh and wait. It is quite an amazing sight to hear Zelenskii limit himself to short telephone calls, short video messages and a few off the cuff comments. The guy is not even really campaigning at all! Yet, barring the unthinkable, he will win with a huge margin on Sunday. You can credit Kolomoiskii’s money and advisors if you want, but the truth is that Zelenskii’s “non-campaign” has been a devastatingly effective (not to mention cheap and easy) way to campaign.
Considering how clueless and non-presidential Zelenskii looks (and sounds every time he opens his mouth), I think that keeping him basically silent was not only the most effective technique, it was the only possible one.
The hotly debated question: which outcome is better for Russia? Well, Poroshenko is not only an Ukronazi, alcoholic and war criminal, he is also the Uber-loser guy who literally FUBARed everything he ever did, at least since he is in politics (Roshen chocolates are actually pretty good!). If Poro steals the election, which is the ONLY way he is going to stay in power, then Russia will have a perfect pretext to 1) not recognize the outcome of this election and 2) the opportunity to have the Ukies further destroy what is left of their sorry Banderastan without Russia having to do anything at all. Zelenskii is far more intelligent (not to mention sober) and he is much less likely to be an easy opponent. Furthermore, Zelenskii is Kolomoiskii’s puppet, and the latter is both VERY evil and VERY smart. A most dangerous opponent for Russia. And then, we can be sure the the Zelenskii-Kolomoiskii duo will have the full support of the Zionists (thanks to Kolomoiskii’s very close ties to Israel).
So while many in the Ukraine and Russia understandably hate Poroshenko with all their souls, I am not at all so sure that Zelenskii will be better for the Ukraine or for Russia. Somewhere, Poro would definitely be easier to handle.
This being said, I also understand that for the people of the Ukraine there is only one way to express their hatred and contempt for that Uber-loser Poroshenko. Voting Zelenskii in the presidential election followed by a vote for pro-Zelenskii parties in the Rada might be just what is needed to begin jailing various Nazis and other nutcases (I don’t expect either Zelenskii or Kolomoiskii to have any patience with the Ukronazis, especially now that they have become a much bigger problem for the Ukraine than they have ever been for Russia).
As I said before, choosing between Zelenskii and Poro is about as meaningful as choosing between Coca-Cola and Pepsi-Cola. Having said that, Poro is the weaker, dumber, more isolated and more inept of the two, so he is probably a lesser evil for Russia.
What about the Donbass and the DNR/LNR People’s Republics – what outcome is better for them? For the same reasons, I think that Poroshenko is probably the lesser evil for the Novorussians. Again, Poro and Zelenskii are both equally bad and even evil (Zelenskii has openly supported the Nazi death-squads and called the Novorussians “scum” – so have NO illusions on this account!) but Zelenskii and his backers are the more dangerous and sophisticated actors. The truth is that the Novorussians must first and foremost count on their own courage and military acumen, then they can count on Russia not only to stop any (theoretically possible) Ukronazi offensive, but also to keep these two republics alive economically and politically. Russia has done a lot, but not nearly enough and much more aid (both military and civilian) is needed by the suffering people of the Donbass.
So could *anything* good come from the election of Zelenskii? Yes, but it is not very likely. First, history is full of puppets who have broken away from their puppet masters. Don’t necessarily think Obama or Trump here – these were both weak and cowardly people! Think Putin, for example. The US has a long and distinguished experience is losing control of its own puppets (Bin Laden, Saddam, Noriega, etc. etc. etc). So I would never say never. Especially since Zelenskii is young, clearly smart, and possibly courageous (dunno, too early to tell). In theory, Zelenskii could begin purging the most notorious Ukronazis. He could also pardon the thousands of Ukrainian political prisoners who are kept incommunicado and who are held in secret jails all over the country. By freeing them he could even make space for a lot of armed and dangerous Ukronazis nutcases who are roaming around the country freely and who represent a very real danger to Zelenskii (a group of west Ukrainian terrorists was recently caught near one of Zelenskii’s residences; they had guns and even a DShK heavy machine gun mounted inside a car!). Again, in theory, Zelenskii might agree to some form of decentralization/federation which, by now, even the western Ukrainians want in increasing numbers. Finally, he might decide to cut his losses and make some kind of deal with Putin directly. Obviously, this would not be “Zelenskii’s deal” with Putin, but the entire AngloZionist Hegemony telling Kolomoiskii what he can allow Zelenskii to say or do. How likely is that to produce any meaningful results?
After all, any Ukrainian politician in touch with reality will understand that making the Ukraine a monolithic state is a dead end, especially after many years of bloody civil war. As for any discussions about the future of Crimea – they are a total waste of time. Finally, I bet you that deep inside themselves the Ukrainian politicians understand that the Donbass, the LDNR, Novorussia – call it what you want – is gone forever and will never return under the control of Kiev (unless the regime in power in Kiev is one put into power by the Novorussians themselves).
Conclusion: it will be pretty easy to tell what will happen next
If Poro steals the election, Russia will not recognize this election and the Ukraine will sink further into chaos, misery and violence.
Furthermore, Russia has (finally!) introduced some meaningful economic sanctions against the Ukraine, including a ban on the export of Russian oil and oil derivatives (a special government authorization can be requested for specific, special, cases).
If Zelenskii gets elected, one of two things will happen:
Option A: Zelenskii will rapidly and energetically resume all the rabid russophobic policies of his predecessor. The topics of the Donbass and Crimea will be front and center of Ukie propaganda. At this point, Russia might as well recognize the outcome of the election (I don’t see a point in pretending that Zelenskii did not “kinda” get a popular mandate) and, in the same breath, recognize the two Novorussian Republics and let them conduct a referendum on their future.
Option B: Zelenskii will rapidly and energetically try to stop (or, at least, “freeze”) the conflict with Russia and with the Donbass. If he does that, the Kremlin will see that Zelenskii is trying to cut his losses and gain political credibility by stopping the war in the Donbass and the (utterly stupid and self-defeating) confrontation with Russia. At this point, Russia is likely not only to recognize the outcome of the election, but also serve as a mediator between the Novorussians and the Zelenskii government in Kiev to offer some kind of compromise centered around a de factoindependence of the two republics combined with some kind of de jure (only!) Ukrainian sovereignty over these republics, even if only symbolical.
At least so far, all the signs are that Zelenskii will go with Option A and resume Poro’s antirussian policies which, considering that Zelenskii is a puppet of Kolomoiskii, who himself is a puppet of the AngloZionist Empire (with, in his case, the stress of the “Zionist” part of the name) certainly makes sense.
Last minute updates:
Thursday April 18th: Poroshenko recorded an address to the Ukrainian people in which he 1) apologizes for this mistakes and 2) blames all his mistakes on Putin. Go figure Ukronazi “logic”….
Thursday April 18th: Zelenskii did end up giving one real interview, in which he said that Putin was an enemy and that the Donbass should not have any special status. He also said that the fact that Stepan Bandera is a hero for many Ukrainians is “awesome/cool” (класно). Having a Russian-speaking Jew say this about a guy who pledged allegiance to Hitler and who massacred scores of Jews is rather amazing, especially on the eve of the Jewish Passover is quite a sight. But then again, the Nazi-occupied Ukraine is the kind of Banderastan were you find Nazis and Jews happily joining forces against their common foe: Russia in general and Orthodox Russia especially. So forget the (comparatively nicer looking) Zelenskii and think Kolomoiskii. In other words, lasciate ogni speranza, voi ch’entrate…
Friday April 19th: (1300 UTC) a debate between Poroshenko and Zelenskii is supposed to take place in a soccer stadium in Kiev. There will be two stages, one for each candidate – this makes it easier to kill one and not the other; that, at least, is the explanations given by many in Kiev. Rumors about some kind of bomb, or sniper attack, or riots are circulating in the Ukrainian social media and tensions are very high. One of the main Ukronazi journalists has even begged Zelenskii not to go to this debate and asked him “do you want to be killed”? These rumors are all helping Zelenskii who is presenting himself like the young, innocent and sincere candidate facing the evil and corrupt state machine controlled by Poroshenko.
Friday April 19th: (1600 UTC) the much expected debate has begun. First surprise, Poro walked over to the Zelenskii stage. First Zelenskii spoke pretty poorly. Then Poro took the floor and immediately jumped on his favorite horse: Putin and Russia. He also pointed out that he is experienced whereas Zelenskii is a noob. After that, the debate became outright boring and of very low quality: the two candidates did not answer each other’s question, Zelenskii offered Poro to together stand on their knees before all the suffering Ukrainians, which Zelenskii himself proceeded to immediately do; Poro instead turned his back and kissed the Ukie flag (see screenshot of that bizarre moment on the right)
Friday April 19th: (1700 UTC) the debate is over. Frankly, both Poroshenko and Zelenskii did very poorly. Both tried a few cheap tricks, which mostly failed to elicit any major reaction, and now the “democratic charade” is over.
Barring something truly major and earth-shattering, Zelenskii will win. After that, we can expect Kolomoiskii to take control of most of the government within 30 days or less. Thus the AngloZionist Empire will re-take control of a FUBARed country the control of which it has been slowly but inexorably losing. I don’t expect the elections to the Rada to change much to the new power configuration in the Ukraine.
It is high time now for Russia to pull the plug on this Ukronazi experiment in “russophobic independence”. That does not necessarily mean rejecting the outcome of the election, but it does mean that it is high time for Russia to recognize the two republics. I don’t hold much hope for negotiations with Zelenskii because such negotiations are essentially negotiations with the Zelenskii’s AngloZionist puppet masters with whom negotiations have been made impossible since early 2014. Simply put: there is no point in negotiating anything with anybody for Russia as long as there are no halfway “agreement capable” partners to negotiate with. As of now, I see no such partners. Hence, Russia must embark on policy of unilateral actions. If the 5th columnists don’t prevail, I expect that that is exactly what Russia will do from now on.
So who will win on Sunday? Will it be the Big Crook or the Little Crook?
Nobody know, but I can give a a firm prediction: it will be a crook.