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The Saker: “The AngloZionist Empire vs Iran”

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Written by The Saker; Originally appeared at his blog

First, since we have more reliable data about what happened, let me recap a few key points to being:

  1. It is has now become pretty clear that Iran took several steps to make sure that the US would know when and where the strike would happen. Specifically, Iran warned the Iraqi government and the Swiss diplomats who represent US interests in Iran.
  2. Yet, at the same time, Iran issued the strongest threat it could possibly issue: it told the US that *any* counter-strike aimed at Iran would result in a strong Iranian attack on Israel.
  3. The US quite clearly took the decision not to retaliate and to “forget” Trump’s promise to strike at 54 Iranian targets.  I want to stress here that this was the correct decision under these circumstances.
  4. It also appears that the Iranians were able to somehow retrofit some kind of terminal guidance capability on missiles which originally lacked it.
  5. The level or precision of the strikes was absolutely superb and quite amazing.
  6. Trump declared that Iran decided to step down and that the US had prevailed.  This notion is, of course, prima facie ridiculous, but not for folks getting their news from the corporate media.
  7. The Iranians declared that this specific strike was now over, but immediately added that this was only a first measure and that other would follow.

Next, I want to share a few interesting photos with you.

First, here is a photo of the base following the strikes sent to me by a friend:

The Saker: "The AngloZionist Empire vs Iran"

Click to see the full-size image

Here is what my friend added: The key idea is really simple and understandable for anybody who has thought about statistics (even in an everyday context). In number terms, it’s almost like rolling a dice and getting a 6 three times in a row, because the probability of rolling a 6 with an ideal dice is 16.67% (and the probability to roll 3 sixes in a row is less than 1%) as opposed to roughly 18% probability for a hit on a building within the map area in the CNN screenshot (if we assume the missiles to be unguided within this area). To be even more precise, the probability for hitting 3 *different* buildings 3 times in a row is actually even slightly lower than 0.62%, as one would have to substract the area being hit from the total area covered by buildings (I ignored that for simplicity). A less than 1% probability for a one-off event like this means that it is really highly UNlikely – to use the British Skripal case expression in its inverted state – to have happened randomly, as we assumed in our hypothesis. Which means that the missiles were, indeed, guided, and guided very accurately, striking targets of less than ~50m size with a high degree of reliability (in this particular area 3/3, in others probably 1/1 as in the runway case, etc). Perhaps, some of them, not covered by the satellite images, missed the target, but it does not substantially change the high degree of accuracy that potential Iranian opponents within reach of these missiles will have to assume from now on.  The people most interested in this were probably the Israelis, as they are probably the main potential target for this type of missile in the case of a future escalation.

Please note that neither my friend nor I are professional imagery analysts and that this is just something my friend shared with me in a private email and which I now want to share with you.

If any professional imagery analyst could either confirm/refute my friend’s conclusions, I would be most grateful.

Next, I want to share with you the following image which shows Iranian IRGC General Ali Amir Hajizadeh reviews results of recent Iranian missile strikes on Ain al-Assad airbase in Iraq during a press conference:

The Saker: "The AngloZionist Empire vs Iran"

Click to see the full-size image

Clearly, the Iranians are very proud of their capability to conduct true precision strikes with an accuracy every bit as good as any Russian and/or US missile.

Finally, check out this image of the Iranian general making a press conference in front of a very interesting row of flags:

The Saker: "The AngloZionist Empire vs Iran"

Click to see the full-size image

These flags include the following: The Iranian flag, the IRGC flag, the flag of IRGC’s Aerospace Force, the flag of the Lebanese Hezbollah, the Yemeni Houthi Ansarullah flag, the flag of the Iraqi Popular Mobilization Units (PMU), the Palestinian Hamas, the Afghan Liwa Fatemiyoun and the Pakistani Liwa Zainebiyoun

I find this very interesting: when Trump (or any other US politician) makes a solemn pronouncement, he typically has a number of aides, advisors, generals, Congressmen or Senators, etc.  This is supposed the show the determination, resolve and unity of Uncle Shmuel, especially when Uncle Shmuel does something illegal or immoral.

The Iranian show of unity does not show more Iranians, they show the unity of all the forces in the Middle-East who have now officially united and whose goal is clear and very official: kick Uncle Shmuel out of the Middle-East.

You tell me which you find more impressive!

Next, the issue of casualties.  Frankly, and while this is only my best guess, I do not believe the Iranian official casualty figures.  Why?  Well, first the Iranians did not try to maximize casualties (more about that option below), and they informed the US by several back-channels.  But even if they had not, while the performance of the Patriot missile is pretty awful, the US does have a lot of top of the line technical intelligence means which would allow them to first detect the launch of the missiles from Iran and then to calculate their ballistic trajectory.  As far as I know, now I might be wrong here, Iranian missiles do not have terminal maneuvering capability (which is different from terminal guidance).  I can’t image why US commanders could not announce a incoming missile alert and then get all the local personnel into shelters.  Again, I might be missing something, so if any reader can correct me, I would be grateful.

So what happened, really?

Here are a few of my current working hypotheses:

1) BOTH the USA and Iran don’t want a fullscale war.  But for VERY different reasons:

  • The US probably understands that it cannot win a war against Iran
  • The Iranians definitely understand that while the US cannot “win”, it most definitely can kill Iranians by the thousands and inflict immense damage upon the Iranian society

2) What just took place was the single most dangerous moment since 14 April 2018 when Russia and the US came very, very close to a full-scale war.  In the current situation, the US and Iran also came very, very close to a full scale war.  The only reason I rank this latest crisis lower than the April 14th is that in one case we risked a planetary nuclear war whereas in this case we “only” risked a regional war which, by the way, could have seen nukes used by the US and Israel.

3) There STILL is a risk of full-scale war between the US and Iran, however, and barring a major unforeseen event, I will lower it now down from 80% to a much more tolerable 50%.  Why 50%?  Because Israel and the Israel Lobby will continue to push for a US attack on Iran and because while I trust the Iranians to keep their anti-US operations right below the threshold of “plausible deniability”, I cannot be sure that all Iranian allies will show similar restraint.  Finally, the chances of an Israeli false flag as still sky high.

4) I expect anti-US operations to continue and even expand throughout the Middle-East.  I don’t expect that these operations will be executed from Iran and I don’t expect Iranian forces to be involved, at least not officially.  The Iranians know that the US has lost every single counter-insurgency war it was involved in and they know that their best chance is now to engage in all forms of asymmetrical operations.

Finally, I want to spell out what we could call the new Iranian threat.

We have to assume that Iran now has terminal guidance capability on many (most?) of its ballistic and cruise missiles and that they can destroy one specific building amongst many more buildings.  Now, remember the Iranian reply that it had 35 US bases within missile range?  Now imagine this first one:

  • Iran fires 10-12 missile on each and every one of the 35 US bases listed and targets barracks, fuel and ammo dumps, key command posts, etc.  How many casualties do you think that such a strike would result in?

Next, let’s try the same thing with Israel:

  • Iran fires 2-3 missiles but carefully aims them as Israeli air force bases, personnel barracks, industrial sites (including chemical and nuclear sites, not even necessarily military ones! Dimona anybody?), the Knesset or even Bibi’s personal residence.  Can you imagine the panic in Israel?

How about the KSA?

  • Iran fires a large amount of missiles aimed at *truly* crippling the Saudi oil installations, National Guard barracks, airfields, etc.  We already know what the Houthis could do with their very limited resources.  Just imagine what Iran could do to the KSA (or the UAE and Kuwait) if it wanted to!

I think that the bottom line is clear: Iran can inflict unacceptable damage upon any party attacking it.  Furthermore, and unlike having “a few” nukes, Iran has hundreds (or even thousands) of cruise missile and ballistic missiles, and you can bet that they are well distributed and well protected,as shown by this short video released by the IRGC and posted by the FARS news agency:

and that means that a disarming first strike against Iran is not possible.

There are two basic ways to respond to an attack: denial and punishment.  In the first case, you have the means to deny your enemy his attack, this is what happened with the Syrians intercepted almost all the cruise missiles fired by the US.  Punishment is when you cannot prevent an enemy attack, but you do have the means to inflict unacceptable damage in retaliation.

The key notion here is “unacceptable damage”.

What do you think constitutes “unacceptable damage” to the (terminally hedonistic) Israelis?

What do you think would be “unacceptable damage” to the KSA, or the world markets (especially oil)?

What about “unacceptable damage” in terms of losses for CENTCOM?

And, finally, what do you think “unacceptable damage” means to the Iranians?

There is such a huge asymmetry in how the parties to this conflict see “unacceptable damage” that is largely compensates for the asymmetry in force.  Yes, sure, the US+Israel are more powerful than Iran (well, not Israel really, but Israel hiding behind the back of the US forces) but Iran is far more capable of absorbing devastating attacks than either the US or Israel.

Finally, in my last post I offered a definition of what constitutes success or failure for Iran: “anything which makes it easier for the US to remain in the Middle-East is a victory for the Empire and anything which makes it harder for the US to remain in the Middle-East is a victory for the rest of the planet.

At this point my personal opinion is that the way the Iranians conducted their first anti-Empire operation is nothing short of brilliant: they achieved a truly phenomenal result with very little means and, most importantly, without forcing the Empire to counter-attack.

Has the US-Iran war really begun?  Yes, I think so.  In fact, it began in 1979, but now it has reached a qualitatively new level.  The outcome of that war is absolutely evident to me.  The cost, however, is not.

This have relatively cooled down, but that is an illusion and we should most definitely not take our eyes of the situation in the Middle-East: expect the initiation of asymmetrical anti-US operations very soon.

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Hasbara Hunter

AngloZioNazis shit their Panties…bunch of bloody Chickenshit Cowards…behold an Empire in its Final Death Throes…how lovely…

klove and light

very very good article


No its not,its blather written by some ex Swiss citizen who ran off to America,taking full advantage of the freedom he has there so that he can pump out anti American blather

Another angry un patriotic fool


ran out of natives to scalp there?


True though, he is from Switzerland, although they got rid of him, i think he’s got a bit of Russian heritage, hence his fanatical pro Russian stance and general hatred of America, i remember reading his blog a couple of years ago, like most of the Putin fan club they got the Trump administration very wrong about their intentions

Therefore his so called analysis is often of the hysterical type, far to much heart ruling head for me, and very often blinded by his hatred of America and love of the Putin regime along with other assorted loser failing states like Venezuela,Syria and of course Iran

Personally i don’t know why he doesn’t f@#k off and live in Russia or Iran if he thinks they’re such supper places


And why is Venezuela a failing state. Who cut that country of from the world’s markets, who tried to stop their oil production, who tried to overthrow their government. Your wicked government Bob, see how blind you are, and the shit you believe in. You are nothing more than another stupid brainwashed yank who thinks you are free. No one who believes in the shit you do is free. Your independent thought has been taken captive, you are in intellectual bondage.


Its called the Dutch disease,look it up

Oh and it was RT International which recently aired a documentary which was very clear about the nature of the Venezuelan economy,so maybe they’re also brainwashed,but no, hang on a minute they’re the good guys,Putin supports the Venezuelan failing state,oh yeah that’s because he wants his money back!

I wonder why?


Didn’t see the doco. Chavez took the oil of the West and nationalised it. Plain and simple. It was asset of Venezuela being exploited by the oil companies where the profits were going overseas and benefiting only a few.

George King

Bob, this shoot the messenger instead of the facts of the message shows a lack of understanding or baffle’em with BS if you will. I note his operations online are coming out of Iceland who I rather admire as they not only kicked out the global transnational criminal cabals, stooped their operations inside Iceland and jailed their own conspiring local criminals ie banking and others involved. I think you are suffering “grotesque self deception” as quoted from Samuel Clemens:

“Next the statesmen will invent cheap lies, putting the blame upon the nation that is attacked, and every man will be glad of those conscience-soothing tactics, and will diligently study them, and refuse to examine any refutations of them; and thus he will by and by convince himself that the war is just, and will thank God for the better sleep he enjoys after this process of grotesque self-deception.” — Mark Twain


Why should i tolerate BS propaganda merchants who essentially hate the west?

Its not my self deception its the saker, as he propagates this totally false narrative about a new civilisational model based on……authoritarian,and religious dictatorship,authoritarian oligarchy, authoritarian communism is this you’re idea of the future?

If one puts the saker into his correct context he’s essentially a small cog in a larger anti western propaganda war, a war which paradoxically includes a bunch of very ugle negative people from the left and right who’d simply tear the world apart just as they did in the thirties, its essentially the same types of people with the same delusional angry mentality

But please do trot off and find me some more useful quotes just so i can remind myself about my “self deception”

Bill Rood

It sounds like you think the US is not an authoritarian society. Did it ever occur to you the every US corporation has an hierarchical structure?


You’re grasping at straws,they also have shareholders,employees,and legal obligations,some corporations have a bad reputation others excellent

Private corporations aren’t an indication of an authoritarian state,but the type of state capitalism practiced in the Soviet union, and still applicable in modern Russia and china are

Hide Behind

Twain is one of least understood and read authors, philosophical critic of Society, and statesmen of within US today. They are doing damndest to portray him as a racist and ban his writings from stool and public libraries, but then they are who are part of US uppercrust Inteiigencia and cultural elites. If one reads his works, speeches and interviews one can see a mind far advanced compared.to the jingoistic secular and religious critics of those times.

George King

How elegantly put indeed, “author, philosophical critic of Society, and statesmen”. Samuel Clemens (pen name “Mark Twain”); “the American Exceptions were almost solely our poets”, I agree and I might add Greatest American Poets.


Yup and didn’t he say something about a lie can be half way around the world before the truth has his boots on,or words to that effect

So the only boots the saker puts on are of a distinctly anti wester propaganda BS type

Ilya Grushevskiy

Depends how you define America – do you define America as Empire a-la red coats?


No i define it as a country that gave the saker a home and some sort of security and equality before the law

He can write his blog for example,and unlike people in other countries ie, North Korea, Syria,Iran China and increasingly Russia, he won’t be arrested,imprisoned very possibly tortured etc,etc

And he replays this by turning on America which he thinks is doomed, well if so he should leave, now just how difficult is that to understand?

In a word the saker is a hypocrite!

Ilya Grushevskiy

US imprisons writers (Assange) just like everyone else. Pointing out error in US action isn’t saying Russia has none, but at the moment Shaytan e-bozorg is definitely the US.


Assange is in prison in the UK

Marvin Joel Zavala López

In other words you’re a fucking jealous dude”


I’ve just enjoyed a nice cold beer!

But then I’m not stupid like some


Read the First Amendment.


Well they don’t really care do they in authoritarian dictatorship?

But yes you’ve answered the question,you’re rights are protected even when you, essentially as a foreigner, want your country of residence to fail/ be destroyed


Please explain why it is hypocritical to criticise the country one pays taxes to.


Criticizing,good side with your enemies bad, oh and don’t come back with some sort of shite about ” they’re not my enemy ” because you don’t live on some sort of sovereign little island separate from the rest of the world!

If you’re a citizen of a NATO member state ,Putin, iran, Syria are difacto enemies of your state,simple as!

If you support another country and its state against your own during war, you are by definition a traitor


I see. So what you are saying is that one has to blindly accept whatever your government does and decides. What’s more, as per your “definition” somehow Putin (I did not know he is a country), Iran, Syria have been turned into enemies. They have not done anything against Nato but they are labeled as enemies and the wo/man in the street has to swallow that. I have no reason to consider those 3 countries my enemies, I do consider the U.S., UK, and “israel” as my enemies since between them they are the biggest threat to world peace and stability.

No wonder the empire-in-decline is going down the tubes with blind acceptance – that’s how WW2 started, with German and Japanese civilians not holding their government accountable.

I think, on the contrary, that it is very healthy not to accept to be turned into a zombie, and what The Saker is doing is very wholesome for U.S. society, even if his reach is small. And, in fact, it is his right, I would even say his duty, since he is paying his taxes there.

So, I for one, as well as others, refuse to accept your home-made “definition”.

Last but not least, I do find it hypocritical from you to read The Saker’s articles, and to then use the comments section to criticise him to the point of denigration. If you really have such a low opinion of his articles, why bother reading them? Question of Do as I say but don’t do as I do?



NOT THE F#@KING saker!!!!

Oh I’ve read his blog for years, and he’s nothing but a fifth columnist

Why doesn’t he go and live in Russia, if he doesn’t like the west?

He could blog from Russia if he wanted to, i bet the Kremlin would even fund him, they like a useful idiot

Oh incidentally its not my home made definition, you’d find yourself in very serious trouble if you were supporting this type of anti government propaganda in Iran right now, if it was in a pro American point of veiw that is,in fact they’re undoubtedly people just like the saker in Iran and Russia as we speak who’ll end up in prison for the same tyes of things he writes, and yes there’s plenty of anti regime people in iran contra to what the saker and that other idiot from Press TV , who also writes for the saker,have to say, the pair of them are idiots of the highest order

If we took my so called definition into full blown war you’d likely be arrested as a threat to national security, and rightly so

You’re just another idiot TRAITOR following the so called work of an idiot, who’d have us all live under religious dictators, thats because he’s basically one himself


NOT THE F#@KING saker!!!! Oh I’ve read his blog for years …

I was right, you are a hypocrite, and your pseudo-educated comments are nothing but a thin veneer. As soon as your cover is blown and exposed you resort to gutter language and ad hominem attacks because your mental capabilities are inadequate to rise to the challenge to have a real discussion.

I understand now why you comment on his articles here and not on his own site: you’d get banned, which is all a bog rat deserves. Goodday.


The saker has a comment policy, he clearly doesn’t want a very broad debate, he must have got some ideas from his friends in Iran on censorship

But then I think he got his ideas about his blog from the old Pravda set up, so yes you’re correct he’d ban me, however i have left a couple of comments but then i find this site preferable, far more spontaneous and fun

his comments section is soooooooo slow,steam driven doesn’t really describe it, slug like really, and its full of a particularly joyless very serious type of person

I luve gutter language incidentally

Unfortunately i can’t really use my full repertoire on this site as they’d likely ban me!




Yes i agree the saker is a joke,well done!


He is such a joke that you keep reading his articles. Why? A thing like you can only learn from it. And while you’re learning, you should get some basic education too. That’s not a joke, it’s the sad reality.



Know they enemy!

Anymore silly questions????



Get an education and learn to spell in English, to start with.




Shows how brainwashed you are. The article was clear, concise and relatively unbiased. The missiles were accurate, Iran successfully attacked US bases without retaliation, the US has been weakened in the ME. All of these things are fact. You see Bob, it’s actually your patriotism that makes you the fool, it blinds you, keeps you ignorant and worst of all, it causes your to support wickedness. You are the bad guy here.


No you’re wrong

its actually reading the saker blog for about five years and realising that he’s an hysterical fool, and not a true analyst, the give away is his constant ad hom attacks using childish language,plus the fact he’ll tolerate absolutely nobody on his blog who doesn’t agree with him,ergo he builds up a typical echo chamber playing to a captive audience who lap it up

He actually claims to have no specific skills i n photo imagery interpretation in this article yet then goes onto make a whole bunch of assertions which are nothing more than his anti American biased opinion

If you’re taken in by this propaganda snake oil salesman more fool you,so nothing to do with my patriotism,just an attuned sense of when someone is bull sh#ing


I don’t get my opinions from the Saker or anyone else. I’ve been on the planet long enough to see the hypocrisy and lies of the Amercian government and the brainwashing of their people.

Bill Rood

It’s not patriotism. It’s jingoism.


Fascist prick


Well that was very creative ,I’ll have to give you ten for it!


He’s spot though. You are a fascist. You think your country is just in its warmongering.


No he just doesn’t agree with me,and has to resort to childish attacks

and thats the case with about 98% of those who comment here,just because you don’t agree with someone doesn’t mean the other person is evil or a fascist

I try not to get tangled up in pointless adhom attacks, i don’t agree with Putin,i don’t agree with Assad, i don’t agree with the Iranian dictatorship,or the Venezuelan one,,or the North Korean one,or the authoritarian Chinese

You see they don’t,and never will create a new world order,which is a challenge to the free western version which has been more successful than the above over the last 150 years,its the free west who created the modern world, not revolutionary murderous movements!


I don’t necessarily agree either, but US imperialism hiding under the guise of freedom and democracy is no better. Men are inherently corrupt, it’s unfortunate but true, but the US was wrong to invade Iraq, and it was wrong to fund Jihadists to try and destroy Syrian sovereignty, it was wrong to get pissed off because Venezuela nationalised their oil assests than try to install a puppet government, it was wrong to destroy Libya and turn it into a failed state, it was wrong to use anti communist propaganda to justify the invasion of Vietnam and kill tens of thousands of innocent people, it was wrong to destroy every major population centre in Korea and wiping out two thirds of the population, etc, etc,etc. The list goes on. Your country is a murderous movement.


Its not my country

Rhodium 10

Good article but forgot that US bases in Iraq were protected with a ring of Centurion C-RAM Phalanx ( Like warships) to intercept incoming missiles ( beside rockets,drones,artillery proyectile)…and FAILED!..

Mehmet Aslanak

I agree with the author, except Trump didn’t authorized a madness like killing Irani & Iraqi generals, but had to pretend like that because of the impeachment trouble. After Trump cleared of that problem, he’s gonna fire some boomer generals in Pentagon because they are collaborating with the ruling elite & in rebellion against the White House.

Bill Rood

I see you’re buying into the divide and rule generation divide BS. You do understand Trump is a boomer, right?

Hide Behind

Like the article, but sure will not bow to all of authors conclusions. He does understand the powers and subtle nuances of symbolism which comes through on flags behind Iranian Speaker compared to USnspeeches where testosteroned andbroided macho boys crowd out view of flag on podiums, surrounding their man? Whatbhe left out when talking of war, he concentrated on the toys destructivebabilities but left out US Most powerful tactical weaponry, , and.the destruction of Iranian people to government cohesiveness by financial embargoes. Iran is not immune from internal fragmentation, as there are many different social strata and ethnicly distinct groups. Iran is already finding an ever growing number of protest movements, mainly from the.younger generation who were not alive during last Revolution,.have no idea of the brutality of the Shah and his secret police all aided by US Britain Canada European financial and military, and think all American youths are rich, drive nice cars, haveblots of sex with rock and roll and computer laptops in every back pack. That Americans are all lovey dovey, except for political, military and Presidents people, no one is homeless or goes hungry, education and good paying jobs for everyone, and racism is unknown. Those youths came of age in relatively affluent times, but thosentimes are fast going away, leaving a lot off those youths disillusioned. Poverty and the lack of a vision that things will get better just because a guy in flowing Robe says so, when reality tells them different as each month things get worse, makes it hard to foretell what spark may ignite inner turmoil. There are 10’s of thousands of Iranians now living in Europe, US and Canada who have contacts with relatives in Iran, no matter how hard the Fellas in Robes with their private army of religious fanatics try to stop it. Weapons in todays warfare is not just guns, bullets, bombs and missles warfare today takes Into consideration financial andbmental warfare as well.

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