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JUNE 2021

The Saker: “Putin And Russia Are Facing A Very Serious Crisis In Belarus”

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The Saker: "Putin And Russia Are Facing A Very Serious Crisis In Belarus"

Written by The Saker; Originally appeared at The Unz Review

Some of my longtime readers might have noticed that I rarely (if ever!) wrote about Belarus or President Lukashenko. As always with the blog, there is a reason for why I do mention something and no less a reason why I do not mention something. In the case of Belarus or Lukashenko, my reason for not writing about them was the exactly why I never wrote about the Ukraine before 2013: I was both uninspired and mostly disgusted with what I saw taking place there. And I did not feel strongly enough to write about it. That changed for the Ukraine with the Euromaidan.

Now the events in Belarus force me to address this very unpleasant topic: Belarus is facing a complex and dangerous situation which might well result in a major crisis inside Belarus and even a loss of sovereignty. But first, before we look into what just happened, let me begin with a quick “mini-primer” about Belarus. Here is what I think everybody ought to know about this country:

  • Belarus is a completely artificial creation, even more artificial than the Ukraine. At least in the Ukraine there were “westerners” (Galicians) who truly were not Russians at all (you can think of them as the “real Ukrainians” if you want) and whose hatred for everything Russian was every bit as rabid as the one of the Interahamwe of Rwanda. There is no meaningful equivalent to the Banderites in Belarus.
  • Lukashnko was no more pro-Russian than Ianukovich. This is crucial. Lukashenko was always pro-Lukashenko, not pro-Russia. Both the West and Lukashenko like to say that Belarus is the only real Russian ally. This is false. Technically, Russia and Belarus are supranational union states. However, it is true that Lukashenko tried to use the historical identity between the Russian and Belarusian people to demand that Russia help him out over and over and over again. And until recently, Russia did.
  • As a country, Belarus is a quasi perfect police state with an extremely competent and feared KGB (yes, in Belarus they kept the name) which controls everything and everybody. This is also crucial for reasons I will explain below.
  • As for the Kremlin, it always wanted to foster a reunification with Belarus but this process was never fully completed due to regular problems, and even crises, between Moscow and Minsk. Russia poured in immense sums of money to keep the Belarusian society from crashing.
  • Finally, Belarus is really a poor country with very limited resources. For Russia, however, Belarus is a crucial military ally, one which plays a central role in Russian defense plans. If the US and NATO were successful in taking control of the country, this will be a major strategic threat for the Russian security.

These are just a few pointers to compare and contrast Belarus with the Ukraine.

Now let me summarize what just happened.

The Belarusian authorities have declared that “hundreds” of men (supposedly Russians) have been sent to Belarus with nefarious intentions. Lukashenko has since officially confirmed that he got this info from the Ukrainian SBU. The men themselves were described as terrorists, insurgents, members of the “Wagner” PMC, subversives, etc. and their goals were described as killing Lukashenko, triggering a new “maidan” in Belarus, create chaos, etc.

Frankly, the Belarusian authorities never got their story straight and, frankly again, this really makes no difference at all. Here are two things which I consider as indisputable:

  1. Russia would never even consider using force or illegal covert operations against Lukashenko and/or Belarus
  2. The Belarusian KGB knows everything of any importance taking place in Belarus

I would even argue that argument #2 very much supports argument #1.

Whatever may be the case, it appeared that a group of Russian security guards had been recruited by a Belarusian firm to provide security in various countries (Sudan and Venezuela is often named). They traveled to Belarus and planned to fly out of Minsk for their final destinations. They were delayed, apparently deliberately, then they missed their flight and were told to go and rest at a hotel which happened to be located not far from the residence of Lukashenko. In the middle of the night, a KGB swat team moved in with flash-bang grenades and guns drawn and brutally arrested everybody in spite of the fact that none of the sleepy Russians offered any kind of resistance. No weapons of any kind were found, no evidence of any covert plans either, but the authorities declared that since these men were not drinking or harassing waitresses and since they kept to themselves, this was a clear proof that they were on a secret mission (I am not joking!).

All of the above is absolute and utter nonsense and we should not get distracted by the minutia of this clearly fabricated pretext.

Here is what really happened.

It now appears that the Ukrainian secret service SBU (which does nothing without Uncle Sam’s approval) mounted a complex covert operation to try to get Belarus and Russia into a confrontation. The entire operation, including recruitment, purchase of airline tickets, etc was, in fact, run from the Ukraine. This was also the biggest mistake the Ukies did: they did not hide their actions well enough and it took the Russians special services less than 24 hours to figure out the entire plan and leak it to the media (in Russian). The fine details are still being ascertained, but the bottom line is this: the Ukrainians pretended to be a security firm looking for men with proven combat experience, especially those who fought in the Donbass against the Ukronazi forces. Once recruited for some pretty typical guard duties, these men were to be flown to Minsk where they would miss their plane and be left waiting for the next opportunity to leave Belarus. At this point, the SBU seems to have contacted the Belarusian KGB and “warned” them about Russian “mercenaries” sent by Russia to kill Lukashenko or, at least, overthrow him.

It is also obvious now that the SBU specially wanted Russians which had combat experience in the Donbass to then ask Belarus to hand them over to Kiev. Such a demand was made almost immediately for most of the men in this group.

So far so “good” (not really, but you know what I mean), but here is when the Belarusians and Lukashenko himself started to act really strangely.

The first logical step for the Belarusian authorities should have been Lukashenko calling Putin and asking for an explanation. Alternatively, the head of the Belarusian KGB could have called the head of the FSB and ask him for clarifications. But, instead of doing that, the Belarusian KGB organized this ridiculous “seizure” of the Russian “mercenaries” while the latter were asleep in their hotel and had no idea whatsoever what was going on.

Next, instead of working with the Russians, Lukashenko just gave a long interview to one of the most talented and most morally repugnant Ukie journalist, Dmitrii Gordon (who proudly proclaims that he is an SBU agent).

But then it only got worse.

Lukashenko pounced on the opportunity to, yet again, engage in his typically long-winded rants against Russia. He even went as far as to suggest that Belarus might extradite some of these Russian men to the Ukraine (which, as we now know, had provided a list of wanted men to the Belarusian KGB). From these actions it became immediately clear to the Russians that Lukashenko was playing some kind of dirty game in the last days before the Presidential election which took place on Sunday.

So what could explain the outright bizarre behavior of the Belarusians?

Reason one: Simply put – Lukashenko’s popularity is declining as fast as the disposable income of the Belarusians.

Reason two: The US is clearly engaged in major strategic PSYOP to seize control of Belarus.

Reason three: The Belarusian state in its current condition is simply not viable and never was.

Let’s take these one by one.

While nobody doubts the outcome of any election in Belarus, it is also pretty uncontroversial that most Belarusians do support Lukashenko. The point is not whether Lukashenko would win, but only by how much he would win? The elections yesterday yielded the lowest possible and acceptable result for Lukashenko: 80%. This figure is really meaningless, all it shows is how good the Lukashenko regime is at winning elections. This time, however, there appear to be more protests than in the past and, unlike what happened in the past, the protests are not limited to Minsk and they have now spread to other cities. So while Lukashenko was never at risk of officially losing the election, a maidan-like protest remains a clear concern for him.

The Saker: "Putin And Russia Are Facing A Very Serious Crisis In Belarus"
Pompeo in Belarus: only a coincidence, of course

But there is much more to this story.

Following a meeting between Lukashenko and Pompeo, the US will now open a (very big) embassy in Minsk. For years the West has been calling Lukashenko all sorts of names, and now it is suddenly “all smiles”.

Is that really a coincidence?

I very much doubt it.

But it even gets much worse than that: the US is sending one of its most capable and dangerous officials to subvert Belarus: I am referring to Jeffrey Giauque, a State Department intelligence official with a long track of successive destabilization missions.

Listen to him introduce himself to the Belarusian people:

In fact, it is now pretty obvious that the entire provocation with the Russian “terrorists” was carefully crafted and implemented by a joint US-Ukrainian effort. Had the Ukie SBU not been so sloppy with how they organized it all (it took the FSB less than 24 hours to get a full and accurate picture of what had happened) this plan might have succeeded. In fact, it still might.

But blaming it all on the US, the SBU and Lukashenko really does not tell the full story.

The truth is that Belarus is a completely artificial state, much more artificial even than the Ukraine, and it is a state which simply cannot survive by itself. Neither can it hope to survive forever on Russian aid. And while looking at the roots of Ukrainian nationalism is important and interesting, such an exercise is useless in the case of Belarus since Belarusian nationalism is something truly a-historical and artificial and which really has no foundation outside western ideological dogmas.

While the Soviet Union’s Marxist and generally russophobic ideology regime always fostered the emergence of local nationalisms (and even created previously non-existing “nationalities”), Belarusian nationalism was something which never got much traction, which is hardly surprising since any distinction between a Russian and a Belarusian is much smaller than the differences amongst Russians who now live in a very diverse and truly multi-ethnic society. Still, from the point of view of the Party Nomenklaturaand their western curators, not splitting away Belarus from Russia while such countries as the Ukraine or Kazakhstan declared their independence was unthinkable, thus a kind of weird compromise was reached which was supposed to reassure both the people of Russia and those of Belarus. Some agreements were made, others were endlessly negotiated about (especially any energy deals!) and what eventually resulted from this all is this weird and artificial statelet of only 10 million people. As for its leader, he declared that Belarus will follow a “multi-vector” foreign policy which I would summarize as follows: pump as much money out of Russia as possible, while at the same time seeking support from the AngloZionist Empire.

SIDEBAR: Yes, I know, Lukashenko is called the “last dictator of Europe” and he is not popular in the West. My point is that his lack of popularity is to be credited to the West, and not to him. Over and over again, Lukashenko tried to get support (meaning “money”) from the West and now Pompeo & Co. have apparently decided to make “their” son of a bitch “our” son of a bitch. What I mean by that Lukashenko was the textbook case of the “our son of a bitch” phenomenon, but not for the West – for Russia. I furthermore believe that like all “sons of bitches” (including “theirs” and “ours”) – Lukashenko has now turned into a liability for Russia.

There is another very worrisome development taking place now: in this entire business the Belarusian KGB was either hopelessly incompetent (which it ain’t!) or penetrated by western agents.  I find the second explanation much more likely.

If we now assume that the Belarusian KGB has been penetrated and compromised, then this is very bad news for Lukashenko who might find himself in the same situation as, say, Nicolae Ceaușescu, who was betrayed by his own secret services (we can also remember how many US/Israeli agents were in high position around Bashar Assad until the war in Syria forced them to pick a side).

Frankly, while the CIA and the rest of them are not very good at some things, they are truly world-class masters in the art of corrupting officials and this might have already happened in Belarus.

Right now, there are riots in Minsk and in other cities and while in the capital the riot police has things mostly under control, there have already been cases of riot cops running for their lives to avoid being lynched by the mob.  As of the time of writing this (Monday 21:50 UTC) the Belarusian KGB has declared that they are hunting down the worst agitators and rioters, but considering how easy it has been for the Ukrainian SBU to trick (or, worse, infiltrate) the Belarusian KGB, I am not feeling very reassured by this verbiage: special services are here to take care of dangerous problems, not to make big statements.

Right now, the latest we hear from the Belarusian KGB is that they prevented the assassination of the main opposition figure Svetlana Tikhanovskaya.  Heck, this might even be true, considering that the (clueless) Tikhanovskaya would make a perfect “sacrificial lamb” (and an terrible politician, should she ever be elected).  But this also looks like some interests inside the Belarusian KGB are courting Tikhanovskaya.  Both versions are equally bad, I think.

How serious is all this?

Very!

There are already (false) rumors spread by Polish media about Lukashenko having fled Belarus in his aircraft.  This rumor is clearly designed to create the (wrong) impression that Lukashenko is the next Ianukovich: while I equally dislike both of these men, Lukashenko is a much tougher man than Ianukovich ever was.

Furthermore, the kind of media-campaign waged now by the western, Polish and Ukie media is unprecedented in its magnitude and it will be very hard for the regime to regain control of the country.

As for Lukashenko, he now seems to have reversed his tune somehow: after accusing Russia of treating Belarus not as a brother, but as a partner, now he says that he spoke to Putin and got a 5 page document explaining it all, and now he says that Russia and Belarus will be brothers after all.

Not very convincing, to say the least.

Very!

There are already (false) rumors spread by Polish media about Lukashenko having fled Belarus in his aircraft. This rumor is clearly designed to create the (wrong) impression that Lukashenko is the next Ianukovich: while I equally dislike both of these men, Lukashenko is a much tougher man than Ianukovich ever was.

Furthermore, the kind of media-campaign waged now by the western, Polish and Ukie media is unprecedented in its magnitude and it will be very hard for the regime to regain control of the country.

As for Lukashenko, he now seems to have reversed his tune somehow: after accusing Russia of treating Belarus not as a brother, but as a partner, now he says that he spoke to Putin and got a 5 page document explaining it all, and now he says that Russia and Belarus will be brothers after all.

Not very convincing, to say the least.

The Saker: "Putin And Russia Are Facing A Very Serious Crisis In Belarus"
This is what Lukashenko’s “multivector” policy looks like…

Quite logically, Lukashenko’s popularity in Russia, which was never that high to begin with, is now rapidly degrading and many analysts who, in the past, praised Lukashenko for his (supposedly) “firm” policy towards the West are now openly voicing their disgust. An increasing number of Russians are now openly wondering with this entire “supranational union state” concept. As for Lukashenko’s much vaunted “multi-vector policies” they look like a banal case of trying to sit between two chairs.

It now appears pretty obvious that the leaders of the Empire stopped hating Lukashenko only long enough to give a short lived and semi-credible appearance of benevolence; now they are already talking about reintroducing sanctions on Belarus and on Lukashenko personally.

This is all extremely dangerous for Russia for the following reasons:

  1. Lukashenko is an absolutely terrible “our son of a bitch” (they always are!) to back and his latest antics have shown the Kremlin that Lukashenko is very much part of the problem, not of the solution.
  2. If Lukashenko remains in power, it will be only thanks to his (mostly very effective) repressive apparatus which might be enough to silence the opposition, but not enough to make Lukashenko truly popular.
  3. Lukashenko himself is clearly both dishonest and unprincipled. He does not care one bit about Russia (or Belarus for that matter), he cares only about himself. In other words, as long as he remains in power, Belarus will be a major concern for Russia.
  4. If Lukashenko is overthrown, be it by a KGB plot or a Maidan-like violent insurrection, we can be pretty darn sure that whoever comes to power will be 1) vetted by the USA and 2) rabidly anti-Russian.
  5. Belarus does not have much of an economic significance for Russia, but for security and, even more so, military reasons Belarus is absolutely vital to the Russian security

This last point needs to be further clarified. Not only is Belarus located in a strategically crucial location, the Belarussian armed forces are very well trained and equipped (no comparison to the Ukie forces) and they represent a major military asset for the Kremlin. There are also Russian forces deployed in Belarus. Finally, the contacts between the Belarusian and Russian military are very friendly and very deep. To have NATO take over Belarus would truly be a major problem for Russia (one that she can deal with, but it would require a major re-thinking of the threat from the West).

So where do we go from here?

It seems to me that if Putin does “more of the same” Russia risks seriously losing Belarus which, at a time when the Ukrainian Banderastan is falling apart, would really be a crying shame. Right now, Russia needs to contain the “Ukrainian infection” while, at the same time, preparing an after-Lukashenko (before it is too late). Obviously, Lukashenko will not gracefully resign, so Russia needs to find a tool in her toolkit to force him to do so.

Personally, I have always believed that fully reincorporating Belarus into Russia would not only solve the “Belarusian problem” but that it would also solve the “Lukashenko problem”. I am confident that Russia has more than enough influence and resources in Belarus to force a change. Yes, that would be both difficult and dangerous, but not doing so could result in a much worse outcome. Russia needs to act. Quickly and resolutely.

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johnny rotten

When there are football matches all the fans are improvised experts and give suggestions to the coaches, when there are important political events, too many take the floor to give advice to the protagonists, the problem is always the same, from the stands you cannot know what is boiling in the pot and sometimes not even the protagonists have all the cards in hand to be able to make the best decisions, but most of all one should know what the real objectives of the protagonists are, sometimes they just do theater to confuse their opponents, caution would be obligation, but asking those who live on words is perhaps too much.

Lazy Gamer

This will be Crimea 2.0 if ever Lukashenko gets booted. But this is probably Venezuela 1.5 lol

Cromwell

Thats why Putin took action in Crimea,Nato had a plan already to roll after Yats took over,they wanted the Savastopol base,it shows how deluded and deranged they are if they thought Putin would tolerate that shit.

Tommy Jensen

The people of Crimea demanded freedom. Whoppers and hoola loola like we have it in US. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ccY1ZXPCexg

paolinks

Yes, they demanded freedom by voting to secede from Ukraine. They tried for 24 years. Finally they reached their home port!! Ура́!

HiaNd

When everything calms down, Russia should start the long and gradual process of replacing Lukashenko.
From now on I do hope that every help to Belarus (from Russia) will be with the strings attached.

SEAN THOMAS

Hasn’t anyone ever told Pompeo how fake and creepy his smile looks?

HiaNd

his wife did

christianblood

“… I am confident that Russia has more than enough influence and resources in Belarus to force a change. Yes, that would be both difficult and dangerous, but not doing so could result in a much worse outcome. Russia needs to act. Quickly and resolutely…”

I hope Russia is listening!

HiaNd

I hope not!

Acting ” Quickly and resolutely…” now in these unstable circumstances would be extremely hasty and unnecessary hazardous operation
They must minimize the damage and calm the situation, the dictator is still on the throne and bad guys have lost
no need to rush, quite opposite…. to much on the stake and with winning set of cards in their hands now, they can wait for the next round.. some time in the future

christianblood

The alternative is a Nato takeover of Belarus, a far worse outcome for Russia as the Saker points out.

HiaNd

I think that you are on alarmist side…maybe you have been reading too much of Western media propaganda…
Russian police and secret service KGB are doing decent job and country is still very far from more drastic measures of calling Belarus army on the streets

christianblood

As we speak, the CIA and MI6 are trying very hard to compromise the army and the police
and put them on their side. It is another maidan revolution in the works and will see how it develops and the next two weeks will be crucial.

Антон С

Not all color coups were successful. Egyptian tahrir is failed. President al-Sisi is quite positive to China and Russia, negative to Turkey and the Atlantic pact. After few coups in Bishkek Kirgiziya removed the US bases and invited russian army.) Russian language is the second official since then. No troubles with kirgizian people. I don’t even remember who is their new president, because he don’t talk absurd about Russia as our beloved Likashenko.

christianblood

The Egyptian tahrir did not fail, it in fact succeeded by deposing Gen. Mubarak and replacing him with (muhamed mursi) a muslim brotherhood stooge! Only after the majority of the Egyptian people stood up in their millions did the Western-imposed regime-change failed in Egypt.

HiaNd

These are the moments when some services will must have some cleansing.
It is natural process that in times of the crises the weakest links appear.
KGB has to identify them and eliminate them quickly and easely (because they are minority)
Population in total majority is on Lukashenko’s side and loyal to Belarus and friendly to Russia.
Why would they bite on Soros and CIA lure of “democracy” and “success” like it has happened in Ukraine?!?!
They can see destruction and misery in Ukraine !

People are not idiots and many know exactly what is happening in Ukraine and why.
So don’t take every word from that CANADIAN Saker, because I am not sure that he has

understanding of deeper state of mind of Belarus people.

And that is the most important element.

To me you sound like doctor who has decided to amputate the leg because patient has scratch on the knee or similar.
To much panic and alarmist approach. Patient is ill , but situation is stable and getting better. No need for any drastic measures just staying alert and continuing recovery

AM Hants

NATO cannot bring Belarus into the offensive union. Neither can it bring Ukraine into the union. Remember, they tried in 1997. Owing to the fact the borders have never been ratified, according to international law, between Russia, Belarus and Ukraine, since the fall of the Soviet Union, back in 1991. The borders are only acknowledged whilst all 3 are part of the CIS.

christianblood

My friend, I think the West have NO desire to respect national or international rules. They think they are “exceptional” and will do anything to increase their degenerate globalist agenda.

AM Hants

They try, but, when was the last time a colour revolution successful?

christianblood

Their motto is control it or destroy it!

HiaNd

It is not so simple when it comes to NATO membership because countries like Germany and France have power to VETO entrance of Ukraine in NATO

Cromwell

Since when did the Reich think about the law LOL!!

AM Hants

Well, back in 1997 it worked. Hence Ukraine lost out on joining NATO.

With Poland and Ukraine, with help from the UK and US, leading the Protests in Belarus, what could go right?

Cromwell

Well Ukraine are all but IN Nato,the place is crawling with Nato troops and the CIA.

AM Hants

Atlantic Council, NATO Admin Think Tank is heavily reliant on Burisma Donations and $oro$ Simpletons. Unofficially they might be controlling Ukraine, however, as an official member not on.

Dawn

But they can still occupy it as the do in Ukraine..

AM Hants

If Belarus buys it. However, don’t believe Lukashenko is as NATO compliant as Saakashvili or Poroshenko.

Dawn

They dont need Lukashenko for that.. Any wiling pawn will do – one is already i the making (a candidate against Lukashenko fled the country).. Anyway: Lukashenko would do that without moral problems – but population would be still against it and Russia would stop paying his bills.. And that is not so good for Lukashenko.. But Lukashenko is finished either way – sitting on 2 chairs never ends well..

AM Hants

Still believe the old rogue has been around long enough, knows where all the skeletons hang out and is more than capable of carrying on as normal. He is pure old school, unlike most.

HiaNd

Ukraine is not “occupied”
I don’t think that numbers of NATO forces is so significant specially because they have absolutely nothing of their heavy weaponry.
As force there they are quite insignificant

FlorianGeyer

Good point, AM and one that is conveniently overlooked by the Western corporate media stenographers.

The Western media is attempting to portray the riots in Belarus as a completely spontaneous ‘home grown affair that has NO input from NATO, CIA/Ukraine and of course the BBC. :)

AM Hants

Thanks Florian.

Is it just me, or are nations turning their backs on the protests? So many, 24/7 around the globe and only the MSM notices. Who bothers with the MSM?

FlorianGeyer

It could be that those who are ignoring the protests are deeply, deeply, involved wit the manufactured protests, I suppose.

There is a violent thunderstorm here with hail as well.
I blame Russia :)

AM Hants

Russia hit us with the thunderstorms last night. Could hear it roaring, loads of lightening and heavy rain and decided no point trying to sleep through it. Still feels quite heavy tonight.

Hope Hans is nicely tucked up and not too bothered by the storms.

I am ignoring the protests as it just seems like Groundhog Day, down the local kindergarten. My head seriously cannot get round any of it, or is even bothered enough to try.

According to the DM The Government or scientists are now advising to wear a mask whilst having sex. Now how are they going to police that on. Track and Tracers’ or get Alexa to report back? Then you have the problem of exactly what mask is preferable. Could go on, but, will shut up, before I get into trouble. Wonder when the advisers will recommend dental chairs with stirrups, to go with those masks?

FlorianGeyer

I can hear the refrain from Boris, even now, that ‘Russia must be made accountable for the thunderstorms over Britain last night.

Han’s is unphased by thunder,flashing lights and fireworks. He’s a cool dude.

As for ‘masks and sex’, would such a law make rape harder ( pardon the pun) to prosecute?

I can understand now why people become Hermits, and in the days of Zoom doctors appointments, there will be much to be said for an isolated home.
As long as its in in a Waitrose/Amazon delivery area of course. :)

Cromwell

That can’t be allowed to happen,if it looked like that would be possible,Russia would have to contact the US and tell them don’t even think about it,don’t even think about sending ANY Nato soldiers to Belarus unless you want to see what the Russian armed forces can do,it would have been like Texas incorporated into the Warsaw Pact.

Антон С

The treaty, Warsaw Treaty Organization, not a pact.

Cromwell

It was known as the Warsaw pact here,a military alliance.

Jim Allen

The West doesn’t listen to Russia, a call is a waste of time.

Cromwell

I think they would listen to a call like that.

Dawn

They certainly planed with that alternative – that is why Poland host so many US soldiers with equipment.. This chess board have been few years in the making – and im pretty sure that FSB and Putin knows about this game all this time.. Only that stupid asshole Lukasenko didnt see it coming… Right now we can see endgame for all involved parties .. regardless of outcome, time for baťuska Lukashenko has finish..

Cromwell

Problem is telling the difference between real citizens in Belarus who have real complaints and agent provocateurs,some from outside the Country,we saw it in the FRY,remember Otpor?some of those trained rats turned up on Midan,i am just waiting for those mysterious snipers to turn up and kill some demonstrators,i hope Russia have their forces on standby,they could be needed.

HiaNd

Find ” Антон С” comment here on thread on Belarus and you will understand that Belarus is not Ukraine and situation with (Georgian) snipers killing indiscriminately police and people during “Maidan” Ukraine is not possible in Belarus.

No invasion of Belarus with Russian army, that would be very stupid thing to do.
Belarus and KGB are coping with the security situation quite well.
I doubt that Belarus army will go on the streets at all.

If Lukashenko has any brains he would ask Russia to send some FSB (secret service) to help Belarus KGB but nothing else really.

Cromwell

Looks to me like Lukashenko is a wayward loose cannon.

FlorianGeyer

In reality, I would think that Lukashenko is fearful for his life IF he is not president. Even in exile his situation would be very expensive and fraught with danger.

I am sure that Trump is in the same situation.

Albert Pike

The only guy ruling over Trump is Christian Zionist and millenarist Pompeo. And he made him!
And Lukashenko made his bed with Pompeo. So they both fell for the all powerful Moshiach now bullshit. Everything else is theater…

Putin Apologist

I agree that Putin should not play the military card unnecessarily. But if he so chooses, there is little Washington can or will do about it.

Washington is not going to go to war with Russia in central Europe, on Russia’s border, over Belarus or Ukraine.

In Texas talk, Washington is “all hat and no cattle”.

HiaNd

OK
well explained point thanks.
Time for war has not yet come and Belarus is not weak spot of Russia but Ukraine (for different reasons).
No need for Belarus or Russia to do anything drastic now.
To go into the panic mode and use excessive force is sign of weakens.
I don’t see dictator Lukashenko coward or weak like Janukovich was, at the time of “Maidan”.
He will not run away without putting up serious resistance, with the army loyal to him if necessary.

I am sure that Russia has contingency plans A,B,C, for every possible development ready to be triggered.
As it seams we are still very far from that kind of situation

It is always Ukraine that can hurt Russia not Belarus.

Rhodium 10

Putin is just waiting that once Lukashenko security forces collapse and Neonazis gangs appear to take control and power…he will push the green light buttom to send troops, militia, Cossacks and PMC there under pretex to save Etnic Russians from Nazis and avoid another Brest fortress.

Fog of War

” Etnic Russians from Nazis ”
First, there are no NAZIS in Belarus. Second, if Putin was to do that he would be invading a Sovereign nation. Just imagine the reaction of the ZioWest ? In fact, that’s exactly what they want him to do here. Its a trap either way.

Антон С

How to call people with white-red-white flag, which was the symbol of hitlerist collaborators? As you know, swastika is ancient indian symbol, quite peaceful, but in Europe (after 1945) it’s the symbol of death and most evil deeds. You can’t call yourself a democrat, if wearing swastika or holding white-red flag in your hands.

Cromwell

No nazis in Belarus,well they will soon import some,and why should Russia give a rats are what the west thinks?as soon as those Ukrainian nazis started murdering people in Donbas Russia should have gone in hard,worrying about what the west thought is probably what stopped them.

Fog of War

” Russia should have gone in hard,worrying about what the west thought is probably what stopped them. ”
They should have, but they didn’t, and Putin wont either this time.

Антон С

Nazis and liberals here not so strong. Lukashenko has a will to remove them from streets, that’s the difference with Yanukovich.

paolinks

This is the exact opposite of Putin’s policy. He didn’t do it in Donbass, he wouldn’t do it in Belarus.

But, because there is a big but, the Saker writes that the KGB has been infiltrated by western agents. But the fact the “russian mercenaries” charade has cooled down and the fact that Lukashenko hasn’t been ousted, with a single blow, just after the elections, means that the KGB has much more patriotic and “pro russian” agents.

If the KGB will feel that Lukashenko has become a liability, they will force him to go away. For his own good…just like the FSB forced Eltsin out of office.

What I mean is that the leverage on belarusian politics is 100:1 in favor of Russia. Maybe Soros and friends have a bunch of payed thugs in the streets and a dozen of treacherous spies in the KGB, but the bulk of the population and security services is pro-Russia.

This is why, as the Saker writes, it is important for Russia to voice support for the country. Not Lukashenko, but the country.

Rancilio

Excelent!

HiaNd

Lukashenko needs offer from Putin ( he can not refuse)

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Tommy Jensen

There is enough gangsters. We need some competent adult only.

HiaNd

Another offer we can not refuse?

FlorianGeyer

Can you recommend any, Tommy? :)

HiaNd

I suppose he talks about himself,
he has looks of spaghetti loaded fat gangster.
All the qualifications he needs.

Tommy Jensen

Putin and his team are probably the most competent. Kim and his team are professionals too.
Xi and China team are a bit more complicated but their OBOR idea is competent..

AM Hants

Back in 2014 I used to enjoy reading The Saker. However, I found it irritating, whenever the Donetsk Fighters had a bad day, The Saker would go into ‘doom and gloom’ hysteria. Writing off both Donetsk and Russia, with whaling relish.

Same as now.

Look at all the positives.

Ukraine set up a trap for the 33 Russian Mercenaries, hoping Belarus would blame Russia and not notice the script ran from Ukraine.

The $oro$ Simpletons NED Nitwit Opposition Leader and supporters, have seen her run to Lithuania and her Atlantic Council friends.

Lukashenko got over 80% of the votes and the population were happy to turn out in force to the voting booths.

Has anybody noticed the $oro$ Simpletons and NED Nitwits, don’t seem to have much power these days. So many nations ignoring there hissy fits.

Jets

Indeed. i have removed my bookmark a long time ago :-))

Putin Apologist

Sorry to hear you feel that way… because I think The Saker (Andrei Raevsky) is one of the best commentators on the present geopolitical standoff between the West, dominated by the Anglo-American-Jewish Empire, and the East, a loose confederation of still sovereign and fiercely Independent-minded nations, the latter led by Russia, China and Iran, available on the Internet.

Sure, Raevsky is not at the intellectual level a Mearsheimer or Cohen but he understands what is presently happening in our world and he is able to convey it, in simple terms, to his readers.

So, I would encourage you to reconsider.

AM Hants

I used to enjoy The Saker, but, did get seriously irritated, when Donetsk was having a few problems, that were over before they started. There are still gems to be found, whose links I still share. Such as ‘The US Bill, HR1644, to Kill Russian Food…’, plus ‘A Brief History On The Kremlin Trolls’. However sadly The Saker just switched me off and think it was in the run upto the Russian Presidential Election.

HiaNd

I suppose that total ruin of Ukraine as country after “color revolution” has a “magic spell” on Belarus populations that thinks;” Hell we do not want to become another Ukraine !”

AM Hants

Hope so.

HiaNd

Trust me they live next door and Belarus population knows exactly how things have changed in Ukraine after Maidan and where are they now.
Standard of living and stability of the country is something that interests every population in the world above all and not politics.
Ukraine has failed miserably in both tests. They are the biggest bad publicity for Soros

J Roderet

The Saker has also made a few factually incorrect statements in this essay, such as saying “Belarus is really a poor country with very limited resources”. Really? The IMF’s GDP PPP (per capita figures) for 2020 place Belarus at #66, over ten spots above the world average and even one spot above China. By comparison, Banderastan sits at spot #108. Belarus is not some bitterly poor country, like its neo-liberal neighbours to the immediate south.

Also, he says that Lukashenko is not truly popular. LOL, the man just won 80% of the votes, in an election with 84% turn out. He is very popular! The Western-funded rioters are just a tiny percentage of the population, but sometimes small groups of radicals can cause a large amount of mayhem in the streets (see the USA’s ongoing riots as a perfect example of that) — especially when they are being funded, organized, and cheered on by the entire West.

I do not hate the Saker or anything, but this was not one of his best essays.

HiaNd

He is Canadian (living his life between US and Canada)
And he is out of touch with Russia or Eastern Europe.
His Russian origin and some trips to Russia or wherever, his Russian contacts gives him wrong impression that he understands everything about the region.

AM Hants

Enjoyed reading your comment. Wish Belarus all the best.

Andrew Wilson

Maybe some misunderstanding here. Belarus is really (truly/genuinely) a poor country. its economy is supported to large degree by Russia by means of its transfers of energy that Belarus then re-sells. The support of Belarus is not essential to Russia except for political and security purposes

Absent Russian subsidies, Belarus would not enjoy the standards of living that it does. Saker was correct in his assertion.

Tommy Jensen

Lukashenko has claimed it is difficult for him to see a difference between Western Oligarchy and Russian Oligarchy, and why then should he choose Russia if there is no difference and he can get more in West?

So Lukashenko has a point. I dont see Lukashenko as a dangerous incompetent as mentioned, only someone who are sqeezed and close to make the same mistake as Erdogan, Gaddaffi m.m. thinking you can be friend with notorious traitorous West..

If Belarus Intelligence have done their job, this would never have happened. Something is wrong in these circles.

Антон С

“At least in the Ukraine there were “westerners” (Galicians) who truly were not Russians at all”

But region of Galizia under rule of Poland was named as russian – województwo ruskie. So they are also russians mostly, but brainwashed for a long time. Not all, but many. There is enough good people in L’vov. I saw them personally. Region near Hungary call themselves rusins (Uzhgorod).

occupybacon

Rusyns/Ruthenians are ethnically closer to Slovaks than to Russians.

Fog of War

Looks like the Zios are going after Thailand also. Possible future Zio base near China ?
– In defiance of law, protesters in Thailand demand curbs on king’s powers –
https://news.yahoo.com/illegal-criticize-thailands-king-theyre-103403046.html

Wizzy

Here’s what I think is gonna happen: Since CIA never give up and while Pompeo appearing in Minsk is as dangerous as it ever gets, the situation will deteriorate further and force Russia to act. The only sovereignty Belarus will be losing will be to Russia; they will live with being accused of invading a sovereign country, NATO been living with it for decades. Losing Ukraine was painful and only fools will allow this to happen with Minsk. Fingers crossed.

Jim Allen

Russia doesn’t have act directly to deal with this problem.

FlorianGeyer

The CIA never gives up, solely because their actions have never really affected ‘Mericans’ of the organisation. ‘In country’ indigenous deaths are not a problem for Langley.

Tis getting closer to the time when the US will be forced pay the price for her warmongering and murder world wide.

RichardD

It would be helpful if some people in the US, French and British security services could give some thought into how to dejudify the US, Britain and France so that they become Jew free.

Albert Pike

One for hope…

FlorianGeyer

Indeed, yes, and no institution survives forever.

peter mcloughlin

I agree with the Saker that Belarus is “absolutely vital to Russian security.” The US and NATO have a different perspective on this crisis of course. Perspectives aside, the two are moving closer to world war, a path they’d be wise to change. They could lose everything over a fiefdom, as so often happens in history, which is following its unsettling pattern.
https://www.ghostsofhistory.wordpress.com/

Dawn

He (Lukashenko) created this situation for him – his greed and unreliability.. Hi tries to sail between Scylla and Charybda now – but due to his stupidity and greed, he will probably ram both..

AleK

One thing is for certain: Lukashenko indeed is not Yanukovich.

HiaNd

Yanukovich was coward, that has contributed lot to the victory of the neo-NAZI’s

kamalashila

the drunken porn of the belarus OMON:

https://twitter.com/Mak_Attack__/status/1293286440109998088

John

Based on track record, I am pretty sure Russia has been follwoing this for a while.

LS

It is time to partly reconstitute the USSR.

Icarus Tanović

This Saker guy and this article is full of bull.

RichardD

I’m guessing that Giauque is a Jew.

“Mr. Giauque has worked in the State Department’s Operations Center, its Office of Israel and Palestinian Affairs, and twice in its Office of European Union and Regional Affairs.”

https://by.usembassy.gov/category/charge-daffaires/

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