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The Saker: “Might Belarus Become The Next Syria?”

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The Saker: "Might Belarus Become The Next Syria?"

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Written by The Saker; Originally appeared at his blog

Okay, I admit it, the title is rather hyperbolic :-)  But here is what I am trying to say: there are signs that Russia is intervening in the Belarusian crisis (finally!)

First and foremost, we can see a truly radical change in Lukashenko’s policies: if his initial instinct was to unleash a brutal repression of both the violent rioters and the peaceful demonstrators, now he has made a 180 and the outcome is quite amazing: on Sunday there were large anti-Lukashenko demonstrations yet not a single person was detained.  Not one.  Even more amazing is this: the Polish-run Nexta Telagram channel (which is the main medium used by the Empire to overthrow Lukashenko) initially called for a peaceful protest, but at the end of the day a call was made to try to take over the main Presidential building.  When the rioters (at this point we are dealing with an illegal, violent, attempt to overthrow the state – so I don’t call these people demonstrators) got to the building they were faced with a real “wall” of riot cops in full gear: this (really scary) sight was enough to stop the rioters who stood for a while, and then had to leave.

The Saker: "Might Belarus Become The Next Syria?"

Lukashenko and son

Second, Lukashenko did something rather weird, but which makes perfectly good sense in the Belarusian context: he dressed himself in full combat gear, grabbed an AKSU-74 assault rife, dressed his (15 year old!) son also in full combat gear (helmet included) and flew in his helicopter over Minsk and then landed in the Presidential building.  They then walked to the riot cops, where Lukashenko warmly thanked them and which resulted in the full police force giving him a standing ovation.  To most of us this behavior might look rather outlandish if not outright silly.  But in the context of the Belarusian crisis, which is a crisis primarily fought in the informational realm, it makes perfectly good sense.

  • Last week Lukashenko said that no other elections, nevermind a coup, will happen as long as he is alive.
  • This time Lukashenko decided to show, symbolically, that he is in charge and that he will die fighting along his son if needed.

The message here is clear: “I am no Ianukovich and, if needed, I will die just like Allende died”.

Needless to say, the AngloZionist propaganda machine has immediately declared that seeing Lukashenko carrying a Kalashnikov is a clear sign that he has gone insane.  In the western context, if this was, say, Luxembourg or Belgium this accusation of insanity would be spot on.  But in the Belarusian context, these accusations get very little traction, chalk it up to cultural differences if you wish.

To understand how powerful this message is, we need to keep in mind the two key rumors that the Empire’s PSYOP operation was trying to convey to the people of Belarus:

  • There are profound differences amongst and inside the ruling elites (especially the so-called “siloviki” – the “power ministries” if you want, like Internal Affairs or KGB).
  • Lukashenko either has already fled the country or is about to flee it (each time a helicopter files over Minsk, the western PSYOPs say that this is footage of Lukashenko “fleeing the country”).

I have a strong suspicion that what happened between Putin and Lukashenko is very similar to what happened between Putin and Assad: initially, both Assad and Lukashenko apparently thought that pure violence will solve the problem.  That profoundly mistaken belief resulted in a situation in which the legitimate authorities were almost overthrown (and this is still possible in Belarus).  In each case, the Russians clearly said something along the lines of “we will help you, but you have to radically change your methods”.  Assad listened.  Lukashenko apparently did too, at least to some degree (this process has just begun).

The truth is that the opposition is in a difficult situation: the vast majority of the people of Belarus clearly do not want a violent coup, followed by a bloody civil war, a total deindustrialization of the country and a total submission to the Empire, i.e. they don’t want to go down the “Ukie way”.  But how to you *legally* overthrow a government, especially if that government now sends the clear message “we will die before we allow you to seize power”?

Then there is the immense problem with Tikhanovskaia: while few believe that she got 10% and Lukashenko got 80% – nobody sincerely believes that she beat him.  So while the West wants to paint Lukashenko as “the next Maduro“, it is practically impossible to convince anybody “that Tikhanovskaia is the next Guaido“.

So where do we go from here?

Well, Lukashenko has not fired Foreign Minister Makei or KGB Head Vakulchik.  Truth be told, I tend to agree with some Russian analysts who say that Makei is not really the problem, and that the main russophobe in Minsk is Lukashenko himself (just one example: he was the one who removed the four Russian Sukhois which Russia had sent to help Belarus control their airspace).  It is quite true that Lukashenko runs all his ministries with an iron hand and that saying that Makei is all evil and black while Lukashenko is this white, innocent, victim is not very credible.  However, even if Makei and Vakulchik were only executing Lukashenko’s orders, then now need to fall in their swords as a sign of contrition and reparation towards Russia.  Still, the Russians will probably indicate the Lukashenko that the Kremlin will not work with these turncoats.

Then there are the public statements of the Belarusian Minister of Defense, Viktor Khrenin, who says all then right things and who seems to take a very hard line against those western forces which are behind this latest attempt at a color revolution.  It is well known in Russia that while Belarusian diplomats seems to, how shall I put it, prefer smiles to substantive collaboration with Russia.  The case of the Belarusian military is quite different, not only do the Russian and Belarusian militaries train together, they also share intelligence on a reportedly continuous basis.  Besides, without Russia the Belarusian military would find itself completely isolated, unable to procure technical support or parts, disconnected from the Russian early warning systems and removed from Russian intelligence support.

The Belarusian military is dramatically different from the Ukrainian military which had practically lost its combat readiness decades ago, which was then purged from all real patriots, and which was fantastically corrupt.  In contrast, the comparatively small Belarusian military is, by all accounts, very well-trained, decently equipped and commanded by very competent officers.  I think that it is a safe bet to say that the armed forces are loyal to Lukashenko and that they would probably welcome a full reunification with Russia.

As for Lukashenko himself, he has, for the first time, allowed an openly pro-Russian party to register (in the past, pro-Russian movements, organizations and parties were systematically persecuted and shut down).  He also declared on public TV that “his friend Putin” advised him on how to react to the demonstrators.

So will Belarus become the next Syria?

Well, no, of course not, the two countries are way too different.  But in a different sense, what happened in Syria might happen in Belarus: Russia will provide her full support, but only in exchange for major reforms on all levels.  And though Lukashenko now declares that the West only wants to destroy Belarus as a first phase of destroying all of Russia, I do not believe that there is any chance for a military conflict, unless one of three things happen:

  1. Some nutcase on either side opens fire and triggers a military incident (and even that might not be enough)
  2. The Poles get really desperate and do something fantastically dumb (Polish history demonstrates that this is a very real possibility)
  3. Lukashenko is killed and chaos ensues (not very likely either)

We must remember that when Russia intervened in Syria, the Syrian military was in shambles and basically defeated.  This is not at all the case in Belarus which has a superb military (of the “lean and mean” sort) and they can secure their own country, especially when backed by the KGB and the Ministry of Internal Affairs forces.

Still, while Lukashenko might be part of the solution in the short term, in the long term he must go and be replaced by a trustworthy leader whom the Belarusian people and the Kremlin could really trust and that leader’s main task will be to fully reintegrate Belarus into Russia.  Again, a major difference with Syria.

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Sauron

Was there a referendum in Belarus regarding the so called integration to Russia?

Zionism = EVIL

Just as much as California, Texas, New Mexico, Arizona had a “referendum” with the Americunt shithole or Gibraltar and Malvinas with the limey backstabber cunts :)

Sauron

That is not what I asked. Was there a referendum in Belarus about merger with Russia?

Zionism = EVIL

Belarus’ President Alexander Lukashenko said he would consider a referendum on constitutional changes and presidential powers. A previous referendum was held in 1995.

A four-question referendum was held in Belarus on 14 May 1995, alongside parliamentary elections. The four issues were the possibility of giving the Russian language equal status with Belarusian, whether new national symbols should be adopted, whether there should be economic integration with Russia and changes to the constitution that would allow early elections if Parliament systematically violated the constitution.According to official results, all four were approved by at least three-quarters of voters, with a turnout of 64.8%

Sauron

so those point are related to being in the same economic union with Russia like EAEU, and non of those voted points are related to the subjugation of Belarus into Russian Federation.

Zionism = EVIL

No, not by force. The majority will have to vote for a union.

Sauron

Yeah thats what i wanted to find out. Cuz i couldn’t find anything so though maybe there is something. And logically such a big decision should be a subject to a referendum, and I wonder what the majority of people would vote for. I guess we will find out if there will be a go ahead with that decision.

Zionism = EVIL

My personal opinion is that if the Americunts and Jew cunts stop anti-Russian propaganda, most of the ex-Soviet states will opt for integration. I have traveled through most and the people are fed up of corruption and failed regimes. Russia should have played a more active role in building institutions, but Putin was too busy sucking up to the west “partners” at the behest of the Jew oligarchs. A pro-Russian government in Belarus and Ukraine was a given, but Putin fucked it up. Now the NATO cunts are baying for blood and using Lithuania as staging post to affect “color” revolution. First thing Belarus needs to do is to shut down the NGOs and CIA media and then start a dialog process with nationalists. Lukashenko may have to go, but a Ukraine like worst outcome can be avoided.

Sauron

The ones that are currently in EAEU, i lean on agreeing with you. Along with the ones in central asia with no access to trade routes. But others, specially the ones that had at some point or currently have an issue with Russia, would not be so keen.

Zionism = EVIL

You are pretty sensible guy and can appreciate the deeper nuances of statecraft.

Sauron

cheers man. appreciate you

Zionism = EVIL

Belarus is integral to Russian integrity, if the Americunts and Zionist get hold of Minsk, it is game over for Russia in strategic terms. Putin’s waffling and incompetence has already cost Ukraine which is now the staging post for Russian destabilization. The loss of Belarus would be fatal. If an open referendum is taken and Jew media kicked out, 99% of the people of Belarus, like most of ex-Soviet states would opt to join mother Russia. Just look at condition of Ukrainian shithole now.

Lone Ranger

Don’t worry.
It seems CIA already failed.
But on the other hand you are overestimating their importance.
9 million people, a buffer zone and two radar stations.
Aside from that not much of importance in regard of Russia.
As for Ukropisstan, I agree, Putin made a mistake not taking the country till the Dnepr river.
But it’s never too.late…

Zionism = EVIL

You know my friend, I told an old Serbian friend of mine (he is dead now RIP) that the breakup of Yugoslavia was a template for the destabilization of Russia and sadly I was proven right. Putin was asleep till 2010, he authorized the war in Iraq and then failed to support the Donbas freedom fighters, the NATO cunts and their Americunt masters just got more emboldened. It is not too late, these arseholes are going down the shithole anyway, a robust Russian foreign and defence policy can change the course of history. Belarus must not be allowed to fall.

Lone Ranger

I agree.
But the U.S. is losing on all fronts, especially at home.
Iraq..lost, Russian Intel and Iranian troops keeping the country together.
Afghanistan lost, Taliban are counting the days, the same collapse will happen as in 1996 when the Taliban first took over.
Yemen?
Saudisis , CIA and MI6 are losing.
And Ukraine, ceasefire is holding for 28days straight, the first time ever.
SBU probably made their calculations, they know sugadaddy is toast, so they started scaling back their brazen BS.

Zionism = EVIL

The stupid shameless cunts are now shunned by all as the second UNSC humiliation today amply demonstrated as even Indonesia permanently shut down the nonsense against Iran, and Russia and China did not even have to use their veto again.

Lone Ranger

U.S. has abused their power since 1945.
While their PR was excellent in the past, they did too much abuse to too many.
The Emperor is naked and everyone is noticing now.

Tommy Jensen

We won everywhere.
15 years of 9000 ton opium/heroine/year from Afghanistan, artifacts and oil from Iraq and Syria, Central bank gold from Ukraine, Libya, Cyprus, Iraq…………….. m.m.

Lone Ranger

All stolen by globalist banksters.
Most the opium was sold in the U.S.
Yeah winning…lol.

Cromwell

I said just the same thing,WW3 started right there in the FRY,also Russia was to blame for what happened in Libya,they abstained at the UN,that left the door open for Nato attacking,unbelievable.

Zionism = EVIL

You are realist, like I am. I have been in this business for a long time and could see that these opportunist arseholes were basically after Russia, as it has immense resources and sadly a Jew fifth column. I have never been a fan of Putin, as I believe he is a light weight. He has severely compromised Russia and emboldened these Americunt thugs. But as they say, it is never too late, Russia still is a major power and has many cards to play, but timidity will not work. Iran is much weaker than Russia and has no nukes, but always hits back and that keeps these cunts scared. Iran would have hung the foreign “reporters” who openly instigate violence in Belarus.

christianblood

(…Russia still is a major power and has many cards to play, but timidity will not work. Iran is much weaker than Russia and has no nukes, but always hits back and that keeps these cunts scared. Iran would have hung the foreign “reporters” who openly instigate violence in Belarus…)

Exactly right!
I believe Russia has much to learn from Iran when it comes to being tough! No one should expect to keep feeding a monster and surviving long afterwards!

Zionism = EVIL

The problem is that appeasement with these cunts simply does not work. They had infiltrated the USSR with arseholes like Gorbachev, then Yeltsin and his inexperienced flunky Putin who continued with the arsekissing until the NATO scorpions stung Russian in Georgia, then Ukraine and now Belarus, which is literally the Russian front door and hinterland. You simply can’t put a washed out KGB major to run defence and foreign policies, Russia needs tough experienced Generals, like the brave men who are dying in Syria. The advantage Iran has is that it has an experienced military leadership who have all fought in wars and are not afraid of dying. The Americunts are basically cowards and unless they fear you, they will keep on pushing. Russia is much stronger than it realizes. Its military, soldier for soldier is far superior that the Americunt trailer trash and it was Russia that defeated the Nazi cunts single handedly, so the EU fags hardly pose a challenge to Russia. It is really time to get tough. The clown Lavrov needs to go too and his “diplomacy” has brought nothing but grief to Russia on the global stage.

HiaNd

The man next to the Iranian is the Moshe Katsav is an Israeli former
politician who was the eighth President of Israel from 2000 to 2007.
Isn’t that lovely ?

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Ee_yo4XXgAMSNBT?format=jpg&name=medium

HiaNd

For you are only good Russians those :
“the brave men who are dying in Syria”
while Iranians DOING HUGE NOTHING and KISSING TURK ASS you CROOKED SON OF BITCH !

christianblood

Couldn’t agree more…Thank you!

HiaNd

You are cunning sleazy poisonous SNAKE never to be trusted with talking with your split snake tongue, poisonous words of betrayal !
Fighting to the LAST RUSSIAN for the glory of SECOND RATE WOULD BE POWER IRAN !

HiaNd

I there any chance to accuse you Anglo-Saxon sons of bitches for at least anything since according to you and that Iranian snake Russia is guilty for everything under the Sun?!?

I say you are full of it, for that blatant anti-Russian propaganda and Iranian snake 100 times more!

1) Russia was totally BANKRUPTED ruined country by Jews on drunkard Yeltsins watch and totally incapable to do anything for “FRY” !
They didn’t have money to pay salaries and pensions let alone to start the war!!!

2)Libiya was not “Russia’s guilt” but that LIBERAL pro-European TWAT Medvedev who was in charge as President and he didn’t oppose creation of
“non fly zone = ticket for free bombing” in UN and that was the end of Libiya.
That was 1st “non fly zone” NATO trick so they were not 100% sure that it could end up so badly.

Putin was only prime minister SUBORDINATE to Medvedev and was angry for that decision but he couldn’t possibly reverse it !

Cromwell

That was the key,as far as the Dnepr,that should have been done as soon as those Nazis unleashed the Ukrainian armed forces on Donbass and Lugansk,if it kicks off again in a major way i hope thats what Putin will do and stop worrying about what the Empire thinks.

Lone Ranger

Hear hear.

viktor ziv

I wouldn’t bet on Putin mistake not taking Dnipro. Invasion would integrate Ukr public under defense umbrella. Kind reminder, ‘don’t interrupt an enemy while the enemy makes mistake’, and last two president clowns are doing just that, making mistake, making UA fallen state and triggering catharsis within UA peoples. UA nazi regime is destined to fall from beginning, even if somehow UA gets to EU table for integration; Pols, Hungarians and Romanians will not allow it due to nazi nature in Kiev.

Lone Ranger

Hopefully Belorussians aren’t suffering from down syndrome, like Ukrop and Baltic nazis.

Cromwell

In a word NO,it won’t be allowed to.

johnny rotten

I don’t like the Saker, he constructs his analysis point by point as if it were a school or business analysis, but you cannot know all the real points of the situation, for the purposes of the analysis it is necessary to pretend that the situations are monolithic and simple, in reality they never are, the Kremlin’s thrusts are not unique and there is a group of oligarchs who would like to do the dirty job of privatizing every Belarusian company, if Luka has worked so long and hard not to let go down the drain the Soviet legacy should be given credit for it, Belarus is among the countries in the world with the lowest unemployment rate, Russia is not, for Belarusian workers the situation is really difficult, in the West there is absolute shit, but in the East many things are unknown, and isn’t the employment situation of Belarusians important, even more important than the geopolitical games that leaders are fighting over people’s heads?

Rhodium 10

Globalist play his cards because they know that Putin fear economic sanctions that hit the Oligarchy….otherwise nothing would have happened in Ukraine!…but once Russian military have taken Crimea and Donbass and have defeated terrorist in Syria in spite of sanctions….the EU seems prudent because the worst scenario for them is clashes between Lithuan and Poland army vs Belarus army along the border which could cause Russian tanks and aircraft arriving in Belarus with the approval of the Belarus military staff ( not Lukashenko)…then oposition would be done and thousands of them would flee towards Lithuania and Poland.

Servet Köseoğlu

ı hope not..such a lovely people…

HiaNd

Do your homework Russia, because Belarus is your home also.
And do not permit Janukovch type of panic screw up this time!
This time the mistakes will be without possibility of correction.

Cheryl Brandon

Russia must not hesitate and , or listen to the EU and their bullshit narratives. US elections are not free or fair does EU call it out ever??

Tommy Jensen

As American Im in favour of freedom for the Belarusian people.

HiaNd

So you insist on Russia marching in to liberate Belarus?!???
You are full of surprises Tommy!

HiaNd

Does anybody know?

Who is the person next to the Moshe Katsav an Israeli former
politician (on the photo) who was the eighth President of Israel from 2000 to 2007.?

Isn’t that lovely friendship?

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Ee_yo4XXgAMSNBT?format=jpg&name=medium

peter mcloughlin

Belarus is different from Syria in one other important way: it is in Europe, the source of two world wars. Putin, an astute and skilful leader, has his greatest challenge still ahead of him – avoiding world war three.
https://www.ghostsofhistory.wordpress.com/

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