The Saker: Making Sense Of Russian Political Ambiguities

Donate

The Saker: Making Sense Of Russian Political Ambiguities

Dmitry Medvedev and Vladimir Putin

Written by The Saker; Originally appeared at The Unz Review

Introduction: the world is not Hollywood

The past couple of weeks saw a number of truly tectonic events taking place simultaneously in the USA, in Russia, in Israel, in Syria, in Iran and in the EU. I think that it would also be reasonable to say that most of those who opposed the AngloZionist Empire have felt feelings ranging from mild disappointment to total dismay. I sure did not hear many people rejoicing, but if somebody was, they were in the minority (uncharacteristically, Mikhail Khazin, for example). These reactions are normal, we all form expectations which can be, and often are, disappointed. Still, even when the news is clearly bad it is helpful to keep a number of things in mind.

First, people, countries and events are not frozen in time. They are processes. Processes, by definition, are subject to change, evolution and (even radical) changes in direction.

Second, each process carries within itself the seeds of its own contradiction. This is what makes processes dynamic.

Third, people are imperfect. Even good people make mistakes, sometimes with tragic consequences. Yet it would be wrong to separate them all into either “infallible hero” or “abject villain and loser”. In fact, I would argue that any kind of mistake, especially a serious one, carries within itself its own contradiction which, in turn, can end up “energizing” the original process by creating a different set of circumstances.

All this is to say that the real world is not like Hollywood when the outcome of the story is only 90 minutes or so away. The real world is at war with the Empire and in this war, like in any other wars, there are mistakes and losses on both sides Both sides make mistakes and the results of these mistakes affect the future course of the war.

I would argue that in the past couple of weeks Russia suffered not one, but several PR disasters. I would also argue that the Zionists have had some tremendous PR successes. I will list them further below, but I want to suggest to you that PR disasters and successes are not quite the same as real-world, tangible victories. Furthermore, PR disasters and successes can sometimes be useful, as they reveal to the world previously overlooked, or underestimated, weaknesses. Finally, PR disasters and successes, while existing mostly in the realm of perceptions, can have a real-world effect, sometimes a dramatic one.

The usual chorus of Putin-haters who immediately declared final victory is completely mistaken and their reaction is the reflection of an infantile understanding of the complex world we live in. In the real world, a person like Putin can, and usually does, commit mistakes (PR and real-world mistakes) and the enemy can mount very effective counter-attacks. But the outcome of the war is not decided on a single battle. Furthermore, in politics, like in regular warfare, tactical mistakes and successes do not at all imply operational or, even less so, strategic successes. During WWII the German military usually performed better than the Soviet one on the tactical level, but the Soviets were superior on the operational and strategic levels. We all know how that war ended. If you want to read a good analysis and debunking of the “Putin caved in” nonsense, I recommend the article ”Russia Betrayed Syria”: Geopolitics through the eyes of a fearful “pro-Russia” Westerner” by Ollie Richardson.

The other extreme is to deny, against all evidence, that there is a problem or that mistakes have been made. That kind of stubborn flag-waving is actually unhelpful as mistakes are inevitable, and the first step towards mitigating them is to recognize them. The extreme version of that kind of flag-waving (pseudo-)patriotism is to denounce a person brining up problems as a traitor or a defeatist.

It is with all this in mind that I would like to revisit what has taken place and try to gauge what the real-world consequences of these PR events might be.

Part one: Putin disappoints

Quick summary: Putin re-appointed Medvedev, appointed Alexei Kudrin as Chairman of the Accounts Chamber of Russia and Vitalii Mutko as Deputy Prime Minister in charge of construction, he then hosted Bibi Netanyahu in the Kremlin while the latter bombed Syria right before, during and after Netanyahu’s visit. Finally, there is the disgraceful zig-zag about the S-300 for Syria: first, yes we will do it, then, no we won’t. All these events can, and should, be carefully analyzed and explained, but I don’t think that it makes sense to deny that most people feel a sense of disappointment over it all (except, of course, the bright geniuses who will claim that they knew all along that Putin was “fake”, but this is precisely the “Hollywood-thinking” types on whom any real analysis would be lost in the first place).

I would argue that even those who think that this is no big deal and that nothing terrible happened will not, if they are honest, deny that Putin must have known, without any doubt, that his decisions would be unpopular with the Russian public and that, very uncharacteristically for him, he deliberately chose to ignore his only public opinion and favor other considerations. That is something very new and, I think, something important.

There are roughly two camps vying for power inside the Kremlin: I call them the Atlantic Integrationists and the Eurasian Sovereignists. The former group is a pure product of the 1990s. We can think of them as “liberals”, IMF/Washington Consensus/WTO/WB types; folks who came to power thanks to the regime of oligarchs which ran Russia from about 1990 to 2000 and which was both deeply pro-American and which had extremely close ties to Israel and the various political Jewish and Zionist organizations in the West. The latter group is primarily a product of the armed forces and the security services. The “bridge” between the two is, by the way, the Russian military industrial complex in which both groups are represented. Unsurprisingly, most Russian “elites” (defined simply as people who made their fortune or, at least, a good living in the 1990s and after) support the Atlantic Integrationists, while most “regular” Russian people overwhelmingly support the Eurasian Sovereignists. This is why Putin is so popular and Medvedev never was. What is interesting is to look into how these groups relate to Israel and Zionism.

In a past article, I have already looked at the complex and multi-layered relationship between Israel and Russia. At this point we need to look a little deeper and see how each of these groups relates to Israel and Zionism.

Atlantic Integrationists: unsurprisingly, they are pro-Israeli to the hilt. For them, Israel is a totally normal country, even to be admired, as they all have personal/family and business ties to Israelis in Israel and in the USA. While there is no official version of AIPAC in Russia, let’s just say that the ADL would give the Atlantic Integrationists a perfect score for loyalty and service.

Eurasian Sovereignists: here, things are much more complicated. Some Eurasian Sovereignists are profoundly anti-Zionist ideologically, while others don’t really care. But even for those who have no love for Israel, or who are deeply opposed to the Zionist influence in Russia in the 1990s or even today (especially in the Russian media), do not necessarily find it useful to say much about it. Why? Primarily because they think, and I would say correctly so, that being pro-Russian (in the sense of patriotic and wanting a truly sovereign Russia) does not have to entail being anti-Zionist, anti-Israeli or anti-Jewish. Furthermore, there are, and have always been, patriotic Russian Jews who have been an integral part of the Russian culture and history. Just like I often write that for Russians, Muslims are not “aliens” in the way many westerners perceive them, and Jews are not “aliens” for Russians either. This is why you can often meet the following Russian type: they will bitch and complain about all the Jewish “crooks and politicians”, but have “good” Jews as their closest and best friends. This is not blindness at all, this is the expression of the fact that to loathe an ideology is one thing, but to collectively feel hostility towards a group of people you know very well is a completely different proposition. I will never cease to repeat it: Russia is, has always been, and still remains a multi-ethnic and multi-religious society in which the presence of “others” simply is a fact of life.

Then there is the WWII factor, which the Israelis and Russians Zionists have been extremely skilled at exploiting to the max: Russians and Jew are united in a common memory of the horrors the Nazis inflicted upon them and they also often sense that West Europeans and US Americans are, well, maybe not quite as sincerely sympathetic to their plight even if political correctness forces them to pretend to be. As a result, you will find that most anti-Zionist Russians, while surely not “ADL compatible” in their views, hate the Nazis and everything western racism stands for no less than Jews would. If fact, when faced with the modern wave of rabid russophobia, many Russians say “we are the new Jews”, meaning that everything evil on the planet is blamed on them regardless of fact or logic. Like it or not, but that common memory does bind Russians and Jews in a profound way.

I can already imagine the rage and disgust my words above will trigger in western Jew-haters for whom the world is split into two groups: Jew-haters (good) and all those who “sold out” to “the Jews” (as if there was such monad as “the Jews”). All I can tell them is this: don’t project your reductionist world view on others, especially not on Russia. If you do, you will never “get” Russia and you will be stuck with the kind of proverbial nonsense like “a riddle, wrapped in a mystery, inside an enigma”.

Part two: The Empire Strikes back

The past couple of years have been terrible for the Zionists, both in the USA and in the rest of the world. First, there was the crushing defeat of their candidate in the USA and the election of a candidate they rabidly hated. Then there was the Russian military intervention in Syria which prevented them from overthrowing the last secular “resistance” regime in the Arab world. In Russia, “their” Atlantic Integrationists were slowly but surely losing power and all in all, the western sanctions turned out to be a blessing for Russia. Putin’s popularity was soaring to new heights and the the global “Zionist house” was on fire. In the USA, the Zionists counter-attacked with lightening speed and with a devastating effectiveness, breaking Trump in about 30 days (as shown by Trump’s betrayal of Flynn and later Bannon). After that, Trump made appeasing AIPAC his full-time job.

But that left another problem: while the US was re-taken under control, Russia, in the meantime, had succeeded in developing the capabilities to completely negate the entire US ABM system, to make much of the surface fleet obsolete and severely to impair the ability of US airpower to operate in airspace contested by modern Russian air defenses. In other words, in purely military terms, this was “game, set, match for Russia”.

[Sidebar: to those shocked by this statement and who would dismiss this as “Russian propaganda” I will submit the following: US military power is predicated on the following:

  1. The ability to deploy a carrier strike group anywhere on the planet.
  2. The ability to protect that carrier strike group from any major counter-attack.
  3. The ability to strike any country in the world with enough missile and airstrikes to break its will to continue to fight.
  4. The complete and total control of the skies (air supremacy). US forces simply never train for a combat scenario where they don’t control the skies or, even less so, when their enemy does.
  5. The very strong belief that no enemy would dare attack major overseas US bases.
  6. The very strong, quasi religious, belief that US military technology is superior.
  7. The absolute certitude that the US mainland would never be hit in a counter-attack.

None of the previous beliefs are based in reality anymore and, in fact, their opposite is true. This is why when dealing with a near-peer or peer enemy the US armed forces are more or less useless. The only very notable exception is the US nuclear triad and the US submarine fleet. The current situation in Syria (and by implication, Iran and Russia) is finally gradually bringing this new reality to the awareness of US decision-makers and military commanders.]

This is why Russia, albeit with only a tiny contingent, succeeded in turning the tide of the war in Syria and even now presents the AngloZionists with a frustrating challenge: a (comparatively) tiny contingent of Russian forces completely derailed the Empire’s plans for the entire Middle-East: not only is there a real change of peace breaking out in Syria, but the situation is far from having the Takfiris and Shia killing each other in Syria and Lebanon (a key part of the Israeli plan for the region). Hezbollah, Iran and the Syrians are now in a victorious coalition on the ground with the “Axis of Kindness” forces roundly defeated.

So the Israelis decided on a simple, very effective and very dangerous counter offensive plan: 1) start a war between the USA and Iran by creating an acute crisis as a result of the US reneging on its legal obligations and 2) bait Iran into a counter-attack in response to Israel air operations against Iranian and pro-Iranian forces in Syria. But for that plan to succeed, Russia needed to stay out.

So far, at least, it looks like the Israelis have convinced the Russians to stay out. But is that perception really well founded?

Part three: factors inhibiting Russia

First and foremost, as I have already explained in great detail in the past, Russia has absolutely no legal or moral obligation to support, protect, arm, train or otherwise assist anybody in the Middle-East. None. Russia has already done more for Syria than the entire Arab/Muslim world combined with the notable exception of Iran and Hezbollah. As for the Arab/Muslim world, it has never done anything for Russia and still is doing nothing. So those who like to whine about Russia not doing enough simply have no case whatsoever.

Second, the Russian air defense and air forces in Syria have only one mission: to protect the Russian task force in Syria. Whoever got the idea that Russia is supposed to shoot down Israeli aircraft or missiles over Syria has not been paying attention to public Russian statements about this. The notion that the Russian task force in Syria is there to engage US/NATO/CENTCOM forces is just as ridiculous.

Third, and contrary to a frequently held misconception, the Syrian government, Iran, Hezbollah and Iran have different agendas in the Middle-East. Yes, they are de-facto allies. They also have the same enemies, they often work together, but they all think of their own interests first. In fact, at least in the case of Iran and Russia, there are clear signs that there are several ‘camps’ inside the Russian and Iranian government and the ruling elites which have different agendas (I highly recommend Thierry Meyssan’s recent articles on this topic here and here). To think that any or all of them will instantly come to the defense of any one of them is supremely naïve, especially when the aggressor (Israel) is backed by the full power of an already warmongering Empire run amok.

Fourth, the sad reality is that Russia, unlike Iran, never took a principled position concerning the nature and behavior of the state of Israel. I very much deplore that, and I consider it a shame, but I hasten to add that this shame is shared by every single country on the planet except Iran, Bolivia and, maybe, to some extent Turkey. Not to excuse anything, but only to explain, there is very little awareness amongst Russians about the true nature and behavior of the Israelis, and most of what makes it to the media is hopelessly pro-Israeli (hence the almost constant presence of the likes of Iakov Kedmi, Avigdor Eskin, Evgenii Satanovskii and other Israeli agents – they don’t even really bother to deny it – on Russian TV). The Russian media, especially the TV stations, could easily get a “ADL seal of approval”. Simply put: the vast majority of Russians don’t feel that the plight of the Palestinians or the constant Israeli attacks on neighboring countries is their problem.

[Sidebar: such a view can appear very self-centered until you recall the kind of “gratitude” Russia got in the past from her former interventions. There are countries out there who exist only because Russia decided that they should exist and which today are members of NATO. I won’t even go into the “Slavic brotherhood” or, for that matter, “Orthodox brotherhood” nonsense. The only people with whom Russia truly has a strong bond are the Serbs. The rest of them were more than happy to backstab Russia as soon as convenient. Thus history has taught Russia a painful lesson: give up on any naïve notions of gratitude or brotherhood. Very sad, but true. Today, even countries like Kazakhstan, Armenia or Georgia are showing a very ambivalent (and even ambiguous) attitude towards Russia. As a result the idea that Russia owes some form of protection to anybody out there has almost no support in Russia.]

Fifth, even the Eurasian Sovereignist’s analysts and media in Russia have this absolutely amazing “blind spot” about Israel and the Zionist ideology: I think of analysts whom I sincerely admire and respect (like Sergei Mikheev or Ruslan Ostashko) and whose analysis is superb on pretty much everything and who simply never mention the power and influence of what is clearly a powerful pro-Israeli lobby inside Russia, especially in the Russian media (even when they mention the power of the Israel lobby in the USA). Considering how different the tone of much of the Russian Internet is, the only explanation I have for this situation is that any public anti-Israeli or anti-Zionist statements are career-terminators in Russia (we also clearly see the same phenomenon at work with RT and Sputnik). You can completely forget about any Russian religious figures speaking up, and that goes both for the Orthodox and Muslims: they all take their orders from the Kremlin and have no personal opinion on anything (I am only talking about the “official” senior religious leaders – the rank and file faithful do not display this type of behavior).

Sixth, there are plenty of people in Russia who fully realize two simple things: first, a war between Iran and the Empire would be disastrous for the Empire (and therefore great for Russia) and, second, the Iranians are also “problematic” allies at best who have their own version of “Atlanticists” (remember the “Gucci Revolution”?) and “Sovereignists”, which means that tensions, or warfare, between Iran and the USA would be greatly advantageous for the anti-US camp inside Iran (just like the rabid russophobia of western politicians did more to re-elect Putin than any of his own campaign rhetoric). To put it crudely, if the Israelis are dumb enough to attack the Iranians, and if the US Americans are subservient enough to Israel to join into the fight – why should Russia take great risks and openly stand in the way? Finally, any conflict with Iran (which will most likely also involve the KSA) will have oil prices skyrocket. What do you think this will do to the Russian economy?

Seventh, the war which Israel is currently waging against Iran and pro-Iranian forces in Syria is entirely a symbolic war. Even the Pantsir which was recently destroyed by the Israelis (with the usual pro-Israeli PR campaign) was not even on combat alert: the unit was not even camouflaged and its crew was standing around and smoking. The Israelis are masters at making this look all very impressive and heroic, but in military terms, this is nonsense: they clearly hit a unit which was not even part of the action (whatever that “action” was).

The basic rule of warfare still remains valid today: unless you can put boots on the ground, your efforts will never have a decisive military effect. And thank God for the fact that nobody in the “Axis of Kindness” has any credible ground forces; not the Israelis (remember 2006?); not the Saudis (look at Yemen); and most definitely not the USA (when is the last time they beat somebody capable of resisting?). That is why the AngloZionist Empire always tries to use proxies like the Kurds or the “good terrorists” to fight on its behalf. Thus the Russian military specialists fully understand that even if the Israelis bombed Syria for the next several months, they would not be able to change the fundamental correlation of forces on the ground. Hence, the Israeli strikes are mostly about PR.

Still, for all these reasons, and more, we all have to come to terms with the fact that Russia is what I would call a “limited actor” in the Middle-East. I have been saying from day 1 – when some were having visions of Russian airborne divisions (supported by MiG-31s!) landing near Damascus – that “the Russians are not coming” (see herehereherehere and here). Furthermore, I tried to explain that the Russians are under no obligation whatsoever to protect or save anyone anywhere, including in the Middle-East (see here). Finally, I tried to explain that the Russian-Israeli relationship is a multi-layered and complex one (see here) and that Putin is facing some tremendous internal opposition which he has failed to successfully tackle (see here). But trying to describe a complex reality is often a futile task in a world in which simple, black and white, binary-kind of representations are the rule and where every complex argument is immediately turned into a long list of straw-man misrepresentations. This is still very much the case with the latest developments.

Those who say that “Putin sold out” are wrong, but so are those who think that “the Russians are coming” to save anybody. It is just not going to happen. Russia will not fight a war against Israel (unless she is attacked first) and Russia will only support Iranian operations and policies insofar as the Iranians negotiate a deal with the Russian and coordinate their efforts. As soon as Iran, or Hezbollah, make a move without prior consultations with Moscow, they will be on their own to deal with the consequences.

Part four: is Russia caving in to Western and Israeli pressure?

Setting aside the issue of the Russian role in the Middle-East, there remains the issue of why Putin failed to deliver on what was clearly a mandate of the Russian people to get rid of at least of the most hated personalities in the Russian government. Most folks in the West know how toxic Kudrin is, but the promotion of Mutko is nothing short of amazing too. This is the man who is most to blame for the gross mismanagement of the entire “Russia doping scandal” operation and who is absolutely despised for his incompetence. Now he is in charge of construction. There is even a good joke about this: Putin put Mutko in charge of the construction industry because the Russian construction market badly needs some doping. Funny, sure, but only so far. When I see Rogozin removed for his “poor management” (now put in charge of the Russian rocket and space industry) and Mutko promoted, I wonder if they have all gone crazy in the Kremlin.

We can all argue ad nauseam why exactly this has happened, but let’s first agree on one simple fact: Putin has failed to purge the Atlantic Integrationists. The big expectation of him getting a strong personal mandate from the people and then finally kicking them out of the Kremlin has, alas, been proven completely unfounded. There are a couple of interesting explanations out there such as:

  • Objectively, the Medvedev government has done a very decent, if not good job, with the economy. True, some/many believe that mistakes were made, that there were better economic policies available, but it would be hard to argue that the government completely failed. In fact, there are some pretty strong arguments which indicate that the Medvedev government (see this article discussing this in detail and it’s machine translation here and this article and its machine translation here)
  • Putin’s very ambitious internal economic growth program needs the support of the interests represented by the Atlantic Integrationists. In fact, internal development and economic growth are the core of his very ambitious political program. Possibly not the best time to purge the Kremlin from those who represent the interests of Russian big business.
  • The Medvedev “clan” has been weakened (see here for details) and now that it has been put on a much shorter “technocratic” leash, it is far less dangerous. In fact, it has been been subdued by Putin and his allies. Lavrov and Shoigu are both staying, by the way.
  • Trump’s reckless behavior is deeply alienating the Europeans to whom Putin is now presenting negotiation partners which they would trust (imagine Merkel and Rogozin in the same room – that would not go well!). Check out this excellent article by Frank Sellers in The Duran looking at the immense potential for Russia-EU cooperation.

Meh. I am personally unconvinced. How can Putin say that he wants serious reforms while keeping the exact same type of people in command? If indeed the Medvedev government did such a great job, then we is there any need for such major reforms? If Putin’s power base is indeed, as I believe it to be, in the people, then why is he trying to appease the financial elites by catering to their interests and agenda? Most crucially, how can Russia free herself from the financial and economic grip of the Empire when the Empire’s 5th column agents are (re-)appointed to key positions? And in all of Russia was there really nobody more qualified than Mutko or Kudrin to appoint to these positions?

Of course, there always this “Putin knows something you don’t” but I have always had a problem with that kind of logic which is essentially an open-ended universal cop-out. I hope that I am wrong, but to me this does strongly suggest that Putin is on the retreat, that he has made a major mistake and that the Empire has scored a major victory. And I will gladly admit that I have yet to hear an explanation which would explain this, never mind offer one of my own.

On the external front, has Russia caved in to Israeli pressure? Ruslan Ostashko offers a very good analysis of why this is hardly the case: (I don’t necessarily agree with his every conclusion, but he does make a very good case:

Yes, Netanyahu *did* with his repeated strikes on Syria, thumb his nose at Putin (that famous Israeli chutzpah at work for you!), and yes, Putin wining and dining Netanyahu was a painful sight and a PR-disaster. But on substance, did Israel get Russia to “betray Iran”? No, and not because the Russians are so heroically principled, but because Israel really has nothing to offer Russia. All Israel has is a powerful pro-Isreal lobby inside Russia, that is true. But the more they use that lobby the more visible it becomes, the more questions at least Eurasian Sovereignists will ask.

The Israelis sure don’t want to give the impression that the run Russia the way they run the USA, and Netanyahu’s reception in the Kremlin recently has already raised a lot of eyebrows and the impression that Putin caved in to the demands of this arrogant bastard are not helping Putin, to put it mildly. A lot of Russian analysts (Viktor Baranets, Maksim Shevchenko, Leonid Ivashov) wonder what kind of arguments Netanyahu used with Putin, and the list of possibilities is an outright uninspiring one.

Part five – another truism: there is a difference between excellent, good, average, bad and terrible

Even if the situation in Russia has changed for the worse, this is hardly a reason to engage in the usual “Putin sold out” hysteria or to declare that “Russia caved in”. Even when things are bad, there is still a huge difference between bad and worse. As of right now, Putin is not only the best possible person to be the President of Russia, Russia also continues to be the objective leader of the resistance to the Empire. Again, the black-and-white “Hollywood” type of mindset entirely misses the dynamic nature of what is going on. For example, it is quite clear to me that a new type of Russian opposition is slowly forming. Well, it always existed, really – I am talking about people who supported Putin and the Russian foreign policy and who disliked Medvedev and the Russian internal policies. Now the voice of those who say that Putin is way too soft in his stance towards the Empire will only get stronger. As will the voices of those who speak of a truly toxic degree of nepotism and patronage in the Kremlin (again, Mutko being the perfect example). When such accusations came from rabid pro-western liberals, they had very little traction, but when they come from patriotic and even nationalist politicians (Nikolai Starikov for example) they start taking on a different dimension. For example, while the court jester Zhirinovskii and his LDPR party loyally supported Medvedev, the Communist and the Just Russia parties did not. Unless the political tension around figures like Kudrin and Medvedev is somehow resolved (maybe a timely scandal?), we might witness the growth of a real opposition movement in Russia, and not one run by the Empire. It will be interesting to see if Putin’s personal ratings will begin to go down and what he will have to do in order to react to the emergence of such a real opposition.

Much will depend on how the Russian economy will perform. If, courtesy of Trump’s megalomaniacal policies towards Iran and the EU, Russia’s economy receives a massive injection of funds (via high energy prices), then things will probably stabilize. But if the European leaders meekly cave in and join the sanctions against Iran and if the US succeeds in imposing even further sanctions on Russia, then the Medvedev government will face a serious crisis and the revival of the Russian economy promised by Putin will end up in an embarrassing failure and things could also go from bad to even worse. As for right now, our always courageous Europeans are busy handing the latest Eurovision prize to an Israeli (Eurovision prizes are always given to countries the EU leaders want to support) while the self-same Israelis “celebrate” the new US Embassy in Jerusalem by murdering 55 Palestinians (and promised to kill many more). So let’s just say that I am not very hopeful that the Europeans will grow a spine, some balls, a brain or, least of all, acquire some moral fiber anytime soon. But maybe they will be greedy enough to reject some of the most outrageous US demands? Maybe. Hopefully. After all, the European supine subservience to the USA has to the EU billions of dollars already…

Part six: dealing with the S-300 fiasco

The entire S-300 business for Syria has been an ugly mess but, again, more in the PR realm than in the real world. The constant “we will deliver, no we won’t, yes we will, no we won’t” creates a terrible impression. The explanations for this zig-zag make things only worse. Let’s take a look at what those who do not disapprove of this zig zag are saying. Their arguments go more or less as follows.

  • The S-300s would place the Israeli Air Force at risk not only over Syria, but also over Lebanon and even Israel. This is overkill because Russia never moved into Syria to fight a war against Israel. So the entire idea of delivering S-300s to Syria was a bad idea in the first place.
  • Syria does not really need S-300s. Lavrov and others mention the S-300s as a threat (because the Israelis really fear these systems), but in reality what Syria needs are Buk-M2E (see analysis in Russian and it’s machine translation here).
  • The Russians made a deal with Israel and in exchange for the non-delivery of the S-300s (see analysis in Russian here and the machine translation here) they are getting something very tangible: Israel will stop supporting the “good terrorists” in Syria thereby making it much easier for Damascus to finish them off.

I don’t like these arguments very much except for the 2nd one. First, I do agree that the Buk-M2E is a very modern and capable system with some advantages over the S-300 in the Syrian context, but I would still add that the infamous sentence “Syria has got all it needs” is an absolutely terrible and ridiculous statement (read Marko Marjanović devastating critique of it in his article “Israel Took out a Syrian Pantsir Air Defense Unit, S-200 Radars. Russia: ‘No S-300 Transfer, Syria Has All It Needs’” for Russia Insider). I think that this “Syria has all it needs” is yet another of these self-inflicted PR disasters and an absolutely ridiculous statement until you take it one step deeper.

So, if by “Syria has all it needs” you mean “Syria has no need for any other help” or “the Syrian air defenses can deal with any Israeli or US attack” – then this is total nonsense. Agreed. But if you just rephrase it and say “Syria has all the types of weapons it needs”, then I think that this is basically true. By far the single most important air defense system for the Syrians is the Pantsir-S1, not the S-300 or any other system.

As early as June of last year I wrote a column for the Unz Review entitled “Russia vs. America in Syria” in which I had a section entitled “Forget the S-300/S-400, think Pantsir”. I wrote that at a time when most observers were paying no attention to the Pantsir at all, and the entire world seemed obsessed with the S-300 and S-400s. I still believe that the Pantsir is the key to the outcome of the struggle for the Syrian airspace. But Syria, and Iran, need many more of them. Basically, the ideal situation is numerous Russian, Iranian and Syrian Pantsirs all over Syria, all of them integrated with already existing Russian long radar capabilities and supported by modern electronic warfare. With enough Pantsirs deployed and on full alert (not like the one the Israelis recently destroyed) and fully integrated into a single air defense network, the Syrians would be able to mount a very robust air defense capability, at a relatively cheap cost, without offering the Israelis any high value and lucrative targets.

Pantsirs can deal with most of the US and Israeli threats even if, unlike their S-300/S-400 counterparts, they cannot engage aircraft at long distance (hence the suggestion to deploy some Buk-M2E’s to approximate that capability). The truth is that S-300’s were never designed to operate more or less autonomously or to intercept cruise missiles or bombs. Yes, they *can* do that, but they were designed to deal with long range high value targets and within a multi-layered system which included many other systems, such as the Buks, Tors, Pantsirs and even Iglas and Verbas MANPADs. That multi-layered air defense system is currently abscent in Syria and would take a lot of time and money to deploy. In contrast the Pantsirs can function completely autonomously, can detect any target up to 50km away, track and engage it 20km away, protect itself and others with its 30mm guns up to 3km away. Pantsirs can even do that while moving up to 30km/h on rough terrain. This makes it an extraordinarily effective and survivable air defense system, which is relatively easy to hide, deploy and engage with no warning for the enemy. By the way, the Pantsir can also use both its 30mm canons and its missiles against ground targets, including tanks. No current air defense system can boast such a combination of capabilities.

Russia needs to deliver as many of those Pantsir-S1 systems to Syria as physically possible. A large number of Pantsir’s in Syria would present Israel and the USA with a far bigger headache than a few S-300s. Currently there is something in the range of 40-60 of such Pantsir’s in Syria. This is far from enough considering the magnitude of the threat and the capabilities of the threat. That number needs to be at least doubled.

However, and regardless of the real-world technical and military aspects of the issue, the Russian zig-zags gave the world a terrible impression: the Israelis attack a Russian ally, then the Russian promise to do something about it, then Netanyahu goes to Russia, and Putin meekly caves in. This is all a massive self-inflicted political faceplant and yet another major mistake by Putin and other Russian leaders.

Frankly, the main Russian mistake here was to *ever* mention S-300s deliveries to the Syrians.

Part Seven: the lessons from the Divine Victory of 2006 – survival is victory

In 2006 Hezbollah inflicted a massive and most humiliating defeat upon Israel. And yet, there is some pretty good evidence that it all began by a mistake. Not by Israel, by Hezbollah. Check out this now often forgotten statement made by Hezbollah Secretary General Hassan Nasrallah:

“We did not think, even one per cent, that the capture would lead to a war at this time and of this magnitude. You ask me, if I had known on July 11 … that the operation would lead to such a war, would I do it? I say no, absolutely not”

Amazing, no? Hassan Nasrallah spoke these words after Hezbollah’s superb victory against the “invincible Tsahal”. The truth is that Hezbollah had underestimated the violence and magnitude of the Israeli attack. Not only that, but Israel did not lose a single inch of its territory while all of Lebanon, not just the south, was viciously bombed and scores of civilians died. Hezbollah did destroy a few “indestructible” Merkava tanks and almost sank the Israeli Navy’s flagship. But compared to the damage and pain inflicted by the Israelis, this was nothing. Even Hezbollah’s missiles had a comparatively small effect on the Israeli population (mostly just the typical Israeli panic). And yet, even if politicians did not want to admit it, it was as clear as can be for both sides: Hezbollah had won a “Divine Victory” while the Israelis had suffered the worst defeat in their history. Why? For a very simple reason: Hezbollah survived.

That’s it and that’s crucial. Olmert and his goons had set out to destroy Hezbollah (or, at least, disarm it). This is what Trump will probably try to do to the Islamic Republic of Iran, and this is what the AngloZionist Empire is trying to do to Russia: eliminate it.

Once the goals are thus defined, then the definition of victory is also obvious: surviving. That’s it.

For Hezbollah, Iran or Russia to defeat Israel, the USA or the entire Empire, there is no need to plant a flag on the enemy’s main symbolic building like what Soviet soldiers did in Germany. All they need to do to win is simply to survive because the other’s sides survival is predicated upon their elimination, it’s really that simple. Israel cannot claim victory as long as Hezbollah exists, the USA cannot claim world Hegemony if Iran openly defies it, and the AngloZionist Empire cannot clain world hegemony over the our planet as long as the Russian civilizational realm openly challenges it. So while all the talk about the Iranians wanting to “wipe Israel off the map” is just a typical ziomedia invention, it is true that by their very existence Hezbollah, Iran and Russia do represent an existential threat to Israel, the USA and the Empire.

This is the biggest and the fatal weakness of the AngloZionist Empire: its survival depends on the colonization or destruction of every other country out there. Every independent country, whether big and powerful, or small and weak, represents an unacceptable challenge to the hegemony of the “indispensable nation” and the “chosen people”, which now try to rule over us all. This might well be the ultimate example of Hegelian dialectics at work in geopolitics: an Empire whose power generates it’s own demise. Many empires have come and gone in history, but the globalized world we live in, this dialectical contradiction is tremendously potentialized by the finite conditions in which empires have to operate.

Conclusion one: support for Putin and Russia must only be conditional

Over the past few years, Putin and Russia haters were predicting doom and gloom and all sorts of betrayals (or Novorussia, Syria, Iran, etc.) by Putin and Russia. Then time passed and all their predictions proved false. Instead of just talking, the Russians took action which proved the nay-sayers wrong. This time however, the Russians said and did a number of things which gave *a lot* of fuel to the Putin-haters and the only way to undo that is to take real action to prove them wrong. Right now as a result of these self-inflicted PR-disasters Russia looks very bad, even inside Russia were many Putin supporters are confused, worried and disappointed.

Externally, the Syrian and, especially, the Iranians need to come to terms with the fact that Russia is an imperfect ally, one which sometimes can help, but one which will always place its personal interests above any other consideration. In a personal email to me Eric Zuesse wrote “I think that Putin and Netanyahu are negotiating how far Israel can go and what Russia can accept — and what cooperation each will provide to the other — drawing the red lines of acceptability, for each side”. I think that he is spot on, but I also think that Putin is wrong in trying to make a deal with Israel, especially if a deal is at the expense of Iran. Ostashko is right. Objectively Israel has very little to offer Russia. But if this kind of collaboration between Russia and Israel continues, especially if Iran is attacked, then we will know that the Israel lobby inside Russia is behind these policies which go counter to the Russian national interest. We will soon find out.

In the meantime, Lavrov can’t try to get a deal going with Israel and, at the same time, whine about the “US Plan on Arab Troops Deployment in Syria ‘Sovereignty Violation’”! How about the never-ending violation by Israel of Syria’s sovereignty? How it is less repugnant than the one being perpetrated by the USA? Are such statements not fundamentally hypocritical?

We can observe a paradox here: Putin has criticized the evil immorality of the western society and imperial policies many times (most famously in Munich and at the UN). But Putin has never said anything about the evil immorality of the state of Israel. And yet Israel is the center of gravity, the nexus, of the entire AngloZionist Empire, especially since the Neocons turned Trump into their subservient lackey. In this, and in so many other areas, Russia needs to follow the example of Iran whose leaders have shown far more morality and principled policies in spite of Iran being much smaller and comparatively weaker than Russia.

In 2006 a thousand men or so of Hezbollah dared to defy the entire AngloZionist Empire (the US was, as always, backing Israel to the hilt) and they prevailed. Russian soldiers have shown time and again, including recently in Syria, they they have the same type of courage. But Russian politicians really seem to be of a much more tepid and corruptible type, and there is always the risk that Putin might gradually become less of an officer and more of a politician. And this, in turn, means that those of us who oppose the Empire and support Putin and Russia must imperatively make that support conditional upon a clearly stated set of moral and spiritual principles, not on a “my country right or wrong” kind of loyalty or, even less so, on a “the enemy of my enemy is my friend” kind of fallacy. Should Putin continue in his apparent attempts to appease the Israelis a new type of internal opposition to his rule might gain power inside Russia and new internal tensions might be added to the already existing exernal ones.

Right now Putin still has a lot of “credibility capital” left in spite of his recent mistakes. However, Putin recent decisions have raised a lot of unpleasant questions which must be answered and will so in time. In the meantime, as they say in the USA, “hope for the best, prepare for the worst, and settle for anything in the middle”. The Scripture also warns us not to make idols of leaders: “Trust not in princes, nor in the children of men, in whom there is no safety” (Ps 145:3 LXX). The worldly evil we are fighting, today in the shape of the AngloZionist Empire, is but a manifestation of a much deeper, spiritual evil: “For we wrestle not against flesh and blood, but against principalities, against powers, against the rulers of the darkness of this world, against spiritual wickedness in high places” (Eph. 6:12). The young men and women from the Shia movement Amal got it right when they chose the name “Party of God” for their movement when they created Hezbollah in 1985. And Iran was right when it became an Islamic Republic: if we want to defeat the Empire we need to always let spiritual matters and moral crieria remain above any of our “pragmatic” worldly political considerations or national/ethnic loyalties: that is how we can defeat those who place a dollar value on absolutely everything they see in their narrow materialistic worldview.

Conclusion two: the quest for “Russian values”

Russian political ambiguities are the direct result of the fact that Russia, as whole, has yet to define what “Russian values” really are. The historical Russia was founded on Patristic Christianity and the Roman civilizational model and the Soviet Union on Marxism-Leninism. The 1990s marked the total triumph of materialism run amok. But unlike Hezbollah or Iran, the “New Russia” (as I like to call it) is not based on anything other than a Constitution written mostly by US advisors and their proxies and a general opposition to the western civilizational model (especially since 2014). Being against something is not an inspiring, or even tenable, political or moral stance (as the White Guards discovered during the Russian civil war). Furthermore, in her confrontation with an AngloZionist Empire which stands for absolutely nothing besides base instincts, Russia needs to stand *for* something, not just against something else. As long as Russia will not firmly define and proclaim a set of spiritual/moral values she stands for, the current zigs-zags will continue and Russian policies will prove to be inconsistent, at best.

[Sidebar: here I want to contrast the Russian society at large with the Russian armed forces who, besides having a lot of good equipment, have a very strong and clear ethos and a rock solid understanding and clarity about what they stand for. This is why Russian soldiers have consistently and spontaneously been willing to sacrifice their lives. The Russian civilian society still lacks that kind of clarity, and Russian politicians, who are no better in Russia than elsewhere, often make use of that. The Russian armed forces are also the one institution with the strongest historical memory and the deepest roots in Russian history. I would argue that they are the only institution in modern Russia whose roots truly go back to before the 1917 Revolution and even much further back than that. As descendant of “White Russians” myself I have always found it uncanny and, frankly, amazing how much closer I have felt to Russian military officers than to Russian civilians. To me it often feels as if there were two types of Russians simultaneously coexisting: the “new Russian” type (still in the process of being defined) and the military officer corps (Soviet or post-Soviet). That latter type almost instinctively made sense to me and often felt like family. This is hardly a scientific observation, but this has been my consistent personal experience].

There is a very high likelihood that Israel will succeed in triggering a US attack on Iran. If/when that happens, this will trigger a political crisis inside Russia because the space for the current political ambiguities will be dramatically reduced. On moral and on pragmatic grounds, Russia will have to decide whether she can afford to be a bystander or not. This will not be an easy choice as their shall be no consensus on what to do inside the ruling elites. But the stakes will be too high and the consequences of inaction prohibitive. My hope is that a major military conflict will result in a sharp increase of the power and influence of the military “lobby” inside the Kremlin. Eventually and inevitably, the issue of Israel and Zionism will have to be revisited and the pro-Israeli lobby inside Russia dealt with, lest Russia follow the same path to self-destruction as the USA. For this reason the concept of “true sovereignization” is the one patriotic slogan/goal that Eurasian Sovereignists must continue to promote (regardless of the actual terminology used) because it points towards the real problems in Russian internal and foreign policies which must be addressed and resolved. This will be a long and difficult process, with victories and setbacks. We better get used to the idea that what happened in the past couple of weeks will happen again in the future.

Donate

SouthFront

Do you like this content? Consider helping us!

  • jerry hamilton

    Sadly, I don’t care how good it may be.
    Without a synopsis, I don’t have enough free time to read it for the sake of it.

    • Olayinka Abdulgafar

      Sadly, you’ll never realise what you’ve missed.

      • jerry hamilton

        What I don’t know is not going to upset me.
        Be a star and write a synopsis, you may well be helping many people.
        Unless you hold a bias similar to the author.

        • Promitheas Apollonious

          you missing absolutely nothing but a headache.

      • Promitheas Apollonious

        yes a bunch of bullshits, from an ignorant person who attempt to sound as know it all especially how russians think and operate. Think like a very low mentality american and judging every one based on him self.

        In the mean time 80% russians seem not to agree with his assessments and bullshits.

        • Ishyrion Av

          Actually, The Saker is Russian, even if he lives in US.

          • Promitheas Apollonious

            actually a lot of greeks by name live in US also, but are very far from been anything but greeks. And the saker is no different. To be Russian must also be able think like one and practice as one.

            The saker proves with every post that has an american mentality and very limited understanding of what is happening around him or…… even worst it does it for money, that is so typical american attitude.

            and i seen a lot of misinformation coming from him lately thought it did started well telling every one what they wanted to hear, not unlike trumpy and is no better way to create sheep and misinformed people than what he does not unlike alex jones and his likes.

            Of course he can always come here and answer for himself. I dont respect very much people who use selective memory and alter facts, while claiming what he claims.

          • Ishyrion Av

            Are you Russian and living in Russia?

    • Redadmiral

      Synopsis: Vodka with Kahlua and cream or Vodka/Coffee liqueur, that is the question. Zig & Zag not the way forward. Russia’s lost Moral Compass, might be known by their military.

  • Winnie Eldrup

    So Russia/Putin shall save the whole world. It’s impossible – it’s crazy.

    • Boris Kazlov

      I said that freakin Putin is no messiah

      • Dr. Pro Liv

        Yet “freakin Putin” is still much better than many!
        Russia is lucky to have him !

        • Boris Kazlov

          When he defends U$AIPAC interests and plays pussy he does not represent me and many others.

          • Dr. Pro Liv

            You “and many others” that make 1% of Russian population (‘if you are Russian) you represent NOTHING !
            Your 1% is handful of assholes nobody cares about!

          • TRAORE

            Russians are born warriors,but like many other race they too were infiltrated by other tribes who ran their show and that has caused them a lot. but of course my guess is that an imbecile like you may yet be from one of these treacherous tribes.

          • Dr. Pro Liv

            What are you talking about?!
            I have some Russian blood and I never claimed to be “Russian”
            And why are you so insolent suddenly?
            He was very unfriendly in his first comment so I wanted to make it equal.
            And who are you to be judge you short sighted pathetic creature?

          • TRAORE

            i was also following your rather stupid and infuriating comments….

        • jerry hamilton

          I wish we had him in Britain.

          • Dr. Pro Liv

            Thanks Jerry. Your sincerity honors you.

          • jerry hamilton

            There are many Brits that feel the same way.
            All it takes in common sense.

          • Dr. Pro Liv

            Yes Jerry
            it takes only common sense.
            It is incredible how “so little” it takes to find the truth and it is even more incredible how often that “so little” we don’t often have…

          • TRAORE

            I don’t know you well enough to judge your memory Bank or attention span,but in case you have forgotten,the Brit went to war over falkland far far far away.you could almost argue it was for prestige as opposed to large scale economic importance unlike Crimea that is vital to the military survival of Russia..it shows how to defend your interest something the ruling Russian elite don’t seem to know..

          • jerry hamilton

            Yes, I do remember the Falkland war.
            Once Britain steal something they do not like to give it up.
            I remember the intense shame of sinking the Belgrano too.
            A ship moving away from the conflict.
            As for the ruling Russian elite… They are doing a far better job than the British and American ruling elite.
            They do not feel the need to steal what does not belong to them either.

          • TRAORE

            The British establishment maybe many thing not nice but once they identify where their interest lies they hold it right down with EVERYTHING and make it a No-go-zone for everyone unlike this treacherous and opportunistic Putin who sells weapons to the enemies of where Russia Interest lies. The man is prepared to sell the Bloody s-400 to Turkey and Saudi Arabia but just not Syria who holds the economic life line of his country? do any of you ever see that? what if Assad goes rogue and do a 360? wouldn’t this sink the Russian federation economically? so why is this Beer drinking Saker of a man downplaying it> tell me how this isn’t an insult to our cerebral functions…

          • jerry hamilton

            The Saker is a site I have looked at twice in my life. I was not impressed.
            You will not see a single post from me on that site.
            I think you have a shltty attitude and so I don’t have to read any more of your garbage, I am blocking you. Now Plss off

          • Dr. Pro Liv

            And you Assad would find where $400 000 000 to pay Russia?!?
            Russia needs money and they sell to PAYING CUSTOMERS because those factories must pay their bills and their workers!

            Why don’t you ask you friends and brothers from Iran you big mouthed good for nothing scoundrel !?!
            Ask for Iranian S-300 your brothers from Tehran!
            They have forgot to send it to Assad !

            “Assad goes rogue and do a 360″
            You are so retarded that you don’t even realize that 360°degrees is back on initial position !!?!

            ” sink the Russian federation economically”
            What ?Your retarded mind thinks that crappy Syria can bankrupt Russia !?!
            I do not know now if you are totally ignorant or totally stupid !
            HOW SYRIA CAN BANKRUPT RUSSIA?!

            no you have no “cerebral functions” at all !

          • TRAORE

            Its amazing that i have to explain easy things to you. The Russian economy relies on Gaz to Europe,right? and if that is taken away by The Qatari pipeline? you still think the Oligarchs will be happy with Putin? you are such a bastardized cretin with an attention span that doesn’t extend beyond 19:00hrs. low life scum. just see your job description.you have to be here 247 spreading bile and arguing.your family must be proud of you.

        • TRAORE

          Russia has more competent people. Putin is a guy who wants a spot in the globalist game.until he gets their approval he won’t feel accomplished and to a large extent this seem to be the general mindset of the elitist Russians..

          • Dr. Pro Liv

            something tells me you are not American

          • TRAORE

            lol

      • Winnie Eldrup

        bLA bLA bLA

      • TRAORE

        He isn’t but the problem is he is pretending to be one.he takes everyone to that mountain top and then board an Apache Helicopter leaving them stranded and waving to them whilst the globalist pilot him away. The guy is a nuisance and has the mentality of a villager with low morals.

        • Dr. Pro Liv

          Apache Helicopter is US helicopter you ignorant twat!
          So you know Putin personally of course!
          He seeks company of nobodies like you huh?

          • TRAORE

            You can’t even read the lines lol ..leaving in Apache hello means he is in bed with them. what a 24 carat imbecile lol

  • gustavo

    I put more attention to…Well…, again trying to justify why S-300 is not given to Syria. Humm,,, just I want to point out that Syria without S-300 is defenseless against Israel-USA planes attack, as we have seen several times.

    • Dr. Pro Liv

      You better “put more” your head up your @ss maybe your brain will start to work..
      And…
      Ask your IRANIAN friends to send their copy of S-300 to their “brother” Assad !

      • gustavo

        Your reaction is only justified if your jew, am I wrong ?

        • Promitheas Apollonious

          he does sound like one lately, but also maybe is just slow.

        • Dr. Pro Liv

          Your weapon of choice!
          Go and ask your cousin ayatollah to send few to his brother Assad!
          Bavar 373
          https://cdn1.img.sputniknews.com/images/104448/48/1044484802.jpg

        • Dr. Pro Liv

          I’m Orthodox Christian and I have some Russian blood in my veins on which I’m very proud.

          Russian interests in Syria are very different of Iranian interests.
          Iran has ambition after their victory in Syria to make direct competition to Russia with their gas pipelines to EU….
          Russia will not scarify her resources on Iranian and Assad objectives that go against Russian interests

          • Promitheas Apollonious

            you are a jew orthodox yes. And you do sound like one. khazarian blood, dont count as russian.

          • Dr. Pro Liv

            fuck of LGBT man in the skirt

          • Promitheas Apollonious

            hasbara did I touch a nerve? been defective DNA and all must qualify you to be the next queen in the tel aviv rainbow parade go for it.

          • Dr. Pro Liv

            In the Tel Aviv rainbow parade they have skirts like yours so you definitely must go.
            The only thing that “touches” my nerve is your flagrant ABSENCE of IMAGINATION !
            You people are such spiritual midgets that you keep repeating again and again same mantra that is pure CRAP !
            “You are Jew !”
            “You are Jew !”
            That’s all you know to say!
            You keep labeling people of being “Jews” yet you all come from countries that are
            sub-servant to Jews from Wall -Street …..you are pathetic little Jewish slaves in mind, spirit and reality.
            I myself owe my life to Jesus Christ Our Savior only.

          • Boris Kazlov

            And what would be Assad objectives apart from liberating all Syria, he has already signed treaties with Russia? Does that run counter to your idiocy?

          • Dr. Pro Liv

            “he has already signed treaties with Russia?”
            WHAT treaties that would be?
            Come on teach me!
            I see you are dying to give me lessons!
            WHAT treaties ??!
            Does that run counter to YOUR idiocy that you talk about ” treaties” without explanations what those ” treaties” are about and proves that they really EXIST!
            So TELL ME WHAT treaties ??!
            And give the PROVES!!
            And we will see who is real idiot at the end !

          • Boris Kazlov

            Your Russian blood is somewhat watered down, mine has a lot of vodka from St. Petersburg.

          • Dr. Pro Liv

            You sound like idiot to me so you obviously didn’t drink enough !

      • Boris Kazlov

        Your freakin comic book picture does not look like S-300, jew.

        • Dr. Pro Liv

          Jew :)
          How old are you child?
          What comic book picture, what are you talking about?

    • Brad Isherwood

      One poster at RI was roaring at me that Putin/Russia will replace/replaces everything Israel/IAF…. blow away in Syria.

      Between that critique and the Saker,
      It appears that if your not actually a Russian citizen….STFU.
      If you are actually a citizen of Russia,…

      Putin knows what is best for Russia….so ….STFU !

      As for Syria – S 300,…..IAF continue to destroy Syrian Airdefence and military.

      Putin Said Syria has everything they need.

  • Dr. Pro Liv

    Is that the same Swiss born from Canada”expert on Russia” who was spitting all over Putin in last article?
    I guess it is.
    I’m not going to read people who change opinion every time they write something

    • Tudor Miron

      It’s not that he changes opinion it’s more that he started with telling some well known truths (several articles ago) to gain some credibility. Than he started to gradually “add poison to his speech”. Lately he resorted to blatant nonsense all while claiming the high moral ground. Clearly he works for those that want to solve some of their problems at expense of some Russian blood.

      • Dr. Pro Liv

        OK
        so you actually are saying ….he didn’t change opinion it was all part of the game for which he was paid from start.
        These are the words that I find very important !
        ” blatant nonsense all while claiming the high moral ground”
        Well that’s exactly how I see 70% of the people from the West !!
        Jut like our “nervous Joe” they ALL talk ” blatant nonsense ” often it is like trademark for them all!
        They all “claiming the high moral ground” from which they endlessly judge with disdain Putin or Russia for not fulfilling their expectations, orders, incredibly demanding high standards and all similar crap of that kind !

        So if the West has pulled the stunt on Russians,Putin (and all of us who are sincerely pro Russian)… That kind of BLAME GAME, orchestrated over huge mass of people.
        With unique narrative that orchestrates masses of those simpletons to CONDEMN Russia from their imaginative “high ground”… Than all that is very impressive in the scope of Western PROPAGANDA success !

    • Obi Juan

      “Is that the same Swiss born from Canada”expert on Russia” ” + applying for american green card!

      This saker is so funny and phony!

      • Dr. Pro Liv

        Actually he has spent all his life in Canada and now States.
        He was just born in Swiss and I think he is in his 40-ies…

        Well he is just regular guy from West pretending to be “expert” on Russia.
        Funny thing is that people do not try to find Russian expert from Russia to understand what is happening there but guys like Saker…go figure…

  • Joe

    I totally disagree with Saker’s statement that Russia owes no one in ME.

    Hundreds of thousands of Syrians have died for Russia for starters , infrastructures destroyed and millions misplaced over a mistake of not allowing the Qatar Pipeline which would have made Russian Turkish pipeline and Germany Nord stream pipeline non starters with the rubles gone Zimbabwe way.

    For that Russia owes to Syria to fully support Assad otherwise Assad might just as well make peace with the Americans and allow the pipeline and collect massive transit fees. No Russian bases and No Russian influence in the ME.

    Another thing about Lebanon 2006 . Saker down played the importance as it opened the world’s eyes Israel was not the power all perceived it to be but rather a weak country relying ONLY on air power.
    Another very important eye opener of Lebanon 2006 is that air power has limited effectiveness. again proven in Yemen today .

    Since then Israel had not dared to attack Lebanon that saved 20K people per year if Hez had not won the war .

    In fact the next war , it is very highly likely the war would be fought in Israel itself with Iranian, Syrian and Hez.

    • velociraptor

      1000%

      • Dr. Pro Liv

        thank you veloCraptor for saving my time !
        I don’t have to read comment if you agree with it…. that means it is CRAP !

    • Ostap Bender

      Sry but without Russian intervention (and you are right it is about Qatari pipeline) there would be no Assad, government or SAA, and still 100.000 would die in religious and sectarian infighting.

      SAA was in such disarray that Russians after a year, stopped them of waging wars on multiple fronts because they would fail miserably (remember Palmyra). Best equipped “Elite” Republican Guard and 4th armored division stationed only in Damascus under Assad’s brother command were loosing armor in E.Qalamoun faster then I smoke cigarettes and they couldn’t advance 100 meters.
      Russians backed general Suheil Al-Hassan (Putin warned Assad if something happens to him he we hold Assad responsible, and you can see Russian Spetsnaz Aplha unit 24/7 around him, not Syrian bodyguards, after it was leaked that someone from SAA side leaked movements of legendary general Issam Zahreddine (God rest his soul) and he was killed because he was too popular.), and Tiger forces won every battle in Syria. Even Russian assembled “5th corps” wasn’t so successful. Tigers show up, terrorist surrender.
      It is interesting that RG and 4th division do not want Tigers (they are part of SAA but not 100%) to come to help a deal with Yarmouk camp.
      “The Tiger” would be ideal replacement if Assad will be forced to step down so sanctions could be lifted, because Syria needs 400 billion$ for reconstruction if not double that money…

      I am disappointed in Putin caving to Zionist wishes, but when he came to power ALL Oligarchs were Jews, he got rid of main ones, but it seems he is caving now, and II wouldn’t be surprised if KGB/FSB hardliners will put a pressure (lets hope so) on him to name his successor and not make mockery of Russia.
      But we will have to see, was that move with Netanyahu some long con, or he just caved in.
      I know Russians are outnumbered in Syria 10.000:1 even 100.000:1 in missiles, planes, soldiers etc, and it would be dangerous to shoot down coalition or Israeli planes. But what Turkey did, that F-16 was waiting for Su-24 (that can not defend itself) to cross the border in maneuver to shoot him down, and that was directive from US of course. Some reports say 200 PMC Russians were killed near DeZ in US airstrike, and he did nothing. So pack up and leave and face Russian public opinion then.

      Putin must man up, or he must admit Russia is defeated, and step down.

      • Brad Isherwood

        Saker is telling us that Putin will not interfere with Israel or US geostrategic ambitions in the mid east.
        Sort of….Enjoy the Israeli Golan,…..Enjoy the US East Euphrates Kurd drive thru Burger King window. ( Enjoy the Mexico type thing … Kool-aid…. the US public drink )

        So ya….Iran cannot have Shia Crescent…….Putin/Russia do not want that either.

        разочарованный

      • Tudor Miron

        Ostap is dissapointed in Putin… that’s a huge issue or is it? “admit Russia is defeated and step down” is THAT what you’re dreaming about creature? Ostap Bender :) interesting avatar. What went wrong on Romania border?

        • Ostap Bender

          What about my avatar??? Croatian 1st Guard brigade “The Tigers” I served with??? What Romanian border, never been there??? 12 chairs by Ilf and Petrov is one of my favorite if not THE favorite book…

          And yes I am disappointed in him caving in, but we will see is that a long game and what will he get in return. You need to understand that Russian political society is split in half Jewish Oligarchs on one side and KGB/FSB and military on the other side.

          I am supporting Putin only because he stopped Anglo-Zionist move in Syria, beyond that I don’t give a flying f for him. Anyone who opposes them, Russia, Iran, China have my vote.

          They did to my country exact same thing they are doing in Iraq, Libya and especially Syria, destroyed good relations between people (that won’t be mended for next two generations at least) and caused bloody civil war for 5 years. And there was absolutely no need for that, and for thousands of dead, and dozens of my friends died, some in my hands fight a war instigated by western intel services and western interest…

          Do you get it now???

    • Dr. Pro Liv

      “Hundreds of thousands of Syrians have died for Russia for starters”
      What?!
      Where did they “die for Russia”?!
      How?

      • paul ( original )

        May be at Stalingrad?

        • Dr. Pro Liv

          Must be !
          Thanks Paul ( original ) on your perspicacity !

          • Boris Kazlov

            You are really zionist as has been pointed out, smirking at an imbecile comment.

          • Tudor Miron

            Boris, if you really think that Russia is in Syria because of pipeline than… I don’t know what to say.

          • Boris Kazlov

            No, of course not, I am aware that Russia fought in Dagestan and Chechenya, does not want a repeat. Also to prevent chaos and slaughter in an allied country, imagine what would happen if jihadists overrun the Syrian Arab Army

            and get to the Presidential Palace. Lastly to stop the Empire gaining another foothold in the Southern border, many motives, Putin said: “we can no longer tolerate this state of affairs”. God bless, brat.

          • Tudor Miron

            Thank you. Благодарю, брат.

          • TRAORE

            Plus the empire will attack from there,so either way rRussia owes Syria far more than she is giving..

          • Dr. Pro Liv

            You should be ashamed of yourself Boris for having exactly the same opinion on many things like Americans who are enemies of your country!

            I have to low opinion of you to take your insults. They do not affect me.
            And I do not care that another simpleton labels me for Jew or Martian or Zombie…

          • BMWA1

            He is wrong, the Syrians died in Zhukov’s operations around Rzhev and Karelian Front in Meretskov’s operations where desert warfare skills of Syrians was esp. useful.

          • Dr. Pro Liv

            Please I’m not in mood
            I appreciate the effort but this TRAORE asshole is going on my nerves
            already with that PRESUMED “Syrian massacre” committed “because of Russians”
            These people come out with such exagerated CONSTRUCTIONS of what they consider to be truth that it only makes me PUKE!

        • Boris Kazlov

          If you understood that denying the Qatar pipeline worked in Russian interest, and that was the catalyst of the war, where hundreds of thousands of Syrian brothers perished, you would not ask your stupid question.

          • Dr. Pro Liv

            Assad was always only true allay with IRAN only!
            Russia was always seen as not good but necessary “allay” by Assad

            Boris it has NEVER crossed your mind that Assad didn’t refuse Qatar pipeline because of Russia but because of IRAN pipeline!??
            They have seen huge money from SELLING GAS to EU and removing Russia as competition !

            But to be 100% honest I must say, maybe Assad wouldn’t do that favor ( not even to Iran ) if he only knew what is preparing for him by the West,Israel and Arabs.

            So we are so sorry for your “Syrian “brothers” that perished” Boris!
            But you have got it all wrong to accuse Russia for all of that!
            Blaming Russia for wanting “hundreds of thousands of Syrian perished” is so over exaggerated and over simplified that is totally IDIOTIC.
            So typical for Western simpleton propaganda bought by typical Westerners and Russian liberal idiots.

      • Joe

        Read my post . If disagree that which part …..pipeline

      • Tudor Miron

        Joe is being a bit nervous lately. According to Joe, that imaginary pipeline of his is enough to end Russia “rubles gone Zimbabwe way.” :) If he clearly doesn’t realize why Russia is defending Syria than why should we expect him to comprehend how Russia is doing it.

        • Dr. Pro Liv

          All thing considered….
          The only “rubles gone Zimbabwe way.” that scenario would be possible only for the American “rubles” :)

          I think that
          the way things are in U.S. our Joe is destined to be “nervous” ever more!
          Only when I hear those people I do realize how much our cultures and problems keep us way far apart as people….
          The gap is sometime so big that we can not communicate at all….even though we are all humans.

      • TRAORE

        You fool,its all about the economics.i said you were an imbecile and i am not wrong.Assad could have signed even a gentleman’s agreement and those Souls would be alive today. so it is tied to Russia you fool

        • Dr. Pro Liv

          I just had about enough of your bullshit your TWAT!
          You talk about things like you were there and
          make accusations like you are God Himself that knows every hidden detail !

          BUT YO DO NOT KNOW what really has happened yet you keep giving these accusations like every big asshole likes to do!
          I had enough of that non-argument CRAP !!!
          And I am not interested in your best guesses and intuitions
          and do not need to hear any more of your insults!

          • jerry hamilton

            I just blocked the shlt.

          • Dr. Pro Liv

            You were so right. I didn’t check on him.
            It is newly created account. So it is some of these
            guys pretending to be African.

    • Hisham Saber

      The Saker also claims Muslims have done nothing for Russia. Nada, ziltch, nothing. Wrong. Who does he think effectively routed the Ukrainian army in the Donbass in 2015? It was Russian Chechen Muslims , that’s who. Before the Chechens arrived, the Donbass people’s militias were taking a beating. The the hard nosed warriors of Mr. Kadyrov showed up and bam, the Ukies got thoroughly defeated. And the situation in the Donbass has been stabilized . These same Chechens are in Syria, where once the U.S. bombed a Syrian Arab Army convoy killing many Russian Chechens, who are working for the Russian MoD. And Putin and Russia didn’t even say one word about it.

      In 1941: the dead winter at the gates of Moscow, who saved Moscow from the German war machine? It was a million man army hastily brought in from Soviet Muslim Republics, the ‘stan’ countries that Khukov used in the major counter offensive that repelled and pushed the Germans back, way back, in fact the Germans never recovered from that. Also, about half the Red Army soldiers who fought and died at Stalingrad were Soviet Muslims. Soviet Red Army Muslim troops were also among the first to enter Berlin in May, 1945.

      Going way back, who liberated the Russian Orthodox Slavs from the war mongering, barbaric, savage Talmudic Jewish Khazars? It was the Islamic Mongol Golden Horde, who destroyed the diabolical Kingdom of Khazaria, scattering them to the winds, where they settled around the Ukraine, Crimea, and Eastern Europe. Later these same Khazars are now in control of the west, especially the U.S.

      If the Saker thinks it’s okay for Putin to dance with the devil, then Putin will surely lose. Putin should never patronize Israel, International Jews, be it Russian or not. Putin has lost respect and credibility he had built up, hope that million on freedom loving people all over the world had for him. There is simply no excuse. He squandered too much goodwill people all over the world had for him and Russia, especially Muslims(I am one) just so he can placate a few thousand influential Russian Jews. To the detriment of Russia’s 20 million Muslims, Syrians, Iranians etc.

      If what the Saker says is true, that RussianJews are influential in Russia, and form a powerful lobby, the sadly Russia and Russians have learned nothing from their blood-soaked history. In the 20th century alone, international Jews have killed off about 100 million Slavic Russians and Soviet Muslims through the biggest genocide in human history, starting in 1917, by way of the Bolshevik bloody red terror and subsequent genocide. The Bolshevik Revolution was a Jewish conspiracy that just about doomed the entire Russian people, killing them off and turning them into atheists.

      Bottom line is Syria, and especially the Shi’a crescent don’t need Putin or Russia in their face off with the bloodthirsty, diabolical international Jews. China 🇨🇳 has their back. You see, China doesn’t do games, and much less , drama. The Chinese are a no nonsense people. And the. 21st century surly and truly belongs to China. There is no stopping that.

      I’m sure the Chinese are watching Putin’s latest patronizing of the warmongering Jews with skepticism and alarm. The Chinese are a very wise people, and they know who the worlds troublemakers are. They are, and have taken them into account. Russia and Putin have some serious soul searching to do. Putin can’t have his cake, and eat it too.

      God Almighty is all the axis of resistance needs, then with the help of a sincere China, the axis of evil, U.S. / E.U. / Israel will surely lose.

      • velociraptor

        muslem = excrescent element

  • Promitheas Apollonious

    i think is time you decide who you are and to me you do sound like a windmill that rotates in a hurricane with the wind blowing in all directions at once. In short you more and more sound like a very confused puppy, not to say as a paid keyboard.

    • You can call me Al

      I assume you aim that at The Saker if so, I absolutely agree.

      • Promitheas Apollonious

        you assume correctly.

        • Brad Isherwood

          I think Saker has been disappointed in his Prophetic visions of Putin/Russia.
          It’s understandable. ..
          Christians publish books and listen to sermons on Disappointment with God : )

          A poster on RI was forwarding the cost plus breakdown on Putin/Russia intervention in Syria vs Empire and Israel.
          I tend to agree… ( posting last year that Putin did not want anyone’s competing pipelines crossing Syria)

          For me…it appears Putin is not warm to the Shia Crescent.
          Not to satisfy Israel or US, …It’s more a Putin/Russian perspective on balancing powers as per Russia’s history with Islam. …or huge Mongol armies on the Frontier.

          Neither will Israhell and the loopy Christian Zionist of America get Greater Israel under
          Putin/Russia.

          So ya….disappointment all around…
          Lol…..Vlad…the trouble maker : )

          • Promitheas Apollonious

            nope thinking people and ones who know the facts and not always speculate and assume and pretend to be experts on what they write about dont get disappointed because they can see via the lines and know what is happening and why.

            What I think his disappointment comes from is he did nto manage to get the 300 grand he was aiming about selling every one fear and scaremongering of an incoming WW3 and he was going to be the super hero saving all, with his pen and his mouth.

          • Obi Juan

            I agree, besides he writes articles full of technical details about weapons that will never be used to confuse and give wrong hopes to people, especially russians living in USA with american mindset full of boom and kabum.

        • Obi Juan

          I totally agree!

          One moth ago the saker was so exited with the “new” russian weapons that he wrote an article ful of: “game over”, “we won”, “we are the best”, ” Putin is the greatest”.

          Now he writes this garbage trying to explain what everybody understand, that Putin works for the big boys, the bankers.

          • Promitheas Apollonious

            Putin works for russia. Now what you think and saker that is your personal opinion.

            I am not pro putin or against him either, I just see facts comment on fact and not assumptions and speculations, based on private agendas and secret well wishing. And you are not every body just one person, so dont pretend to represent the majority and what they think or they know.

          • Rex drabble

            Great comment.I have learnt to evaluate things the same way.
            There is no place for emotion as hard as that can be at times.
            This is why Putin is so good at his job

          • Shylo Duffy

            You’re crazy if you think Putin is in with the bankers, have u forgotten it was Putin who rid it’s Country of the bankers and shit disturbing zios…Stop letting them tell u what to think.

        • You can call me Al

          Thank you Sir.

    • Tudor Miron

      You sum it up very well.

      • BMWA1

        ‘Saker’ overthinks, else, is some pay-op Swiss living in Florida. He seems to have a very attenuated mentality as to things Russian, simply expecting the photo-negative of US moves. As for RU-Israel attitude, I think it is very simple, do not escalate and make the job harder when it is not needed, he (Putin) is not on some anti-IDF crusade, just wants the Israeli-supported Jihadis and others of that old out of Syria and out of power. Many if these are active in Russia, looking at the school attack Beslan and various real terror attacks (Volgograd Vauxhall, etc., etc.). So if S300 makes job harder and there are other options, do other options. All recent Russian efforts have been relatively easy and efficient operations using minimal force. Crimea is prime example.

    • Shylo Duffy

      I have to agree with all you said, at one time I had respect for him but now he sounds like a Mr know it all , and he’s talking down to the rest of us as though we’ve not been paying attention to what’s going on in the world of Russia Israel and Syria, not to mention the rest of the ME..He does much better when he remembers he’s talking to those of us who have a clue.

    • Rex drabble

      After Sakers tantrum about Putin I dont bother going to his site.
      He has revealed his true colors

  • velociraptor

    Saker = Faker

    • Criticalthinker101

      I see you like to play linguistic games. How about we drop the third vowel in your name.

    • Dr. Pro Liv

      velociraptor = pathetic asshole

      doesn’t rime but at least sounds nice

    • Boris Kazlov

      velociraptor = velocicraptor

      • velociraptor

        flimsy

  • Jose

    For those who know how to play chess, you know that attacks or counter-attacks are not done with emotion. Sometimes we can judge that the game is lost, but in a stroke of mastery, checkmate!
    Putin simply does not play the game they want, which would allow them to invade or ruin the plans.

    • Boris Kazlov

      It would only be a cheap shot overlooked by the better player

  • Siegfried

    “Second, the Russian air defense and air forces in Syria have only one
    mission: to protect the Russian task force in Syria. Whoever got the
    idea that Russia is supposed to shoot down Israeli aircraft or missiles
    over Syria has not been paying attention to public Russian statements
    about this. The notion that the Russian task force in Syria is there to
    engage US/NATO/CENTCOM forces is just as ridiculous.”

    Well.. then WHY are you REALLY there?
    To get a good price for ASSAD? How much do you want for IRAN?…

    • Boris Kazlov

      Really, Saker does not understand shit for the reasons of Russian intervention

  • Boris Kazlov

    Freakin Putin is no messiah, and Saker is completely wrong in confining Russia to its conventional borders.”Russia owes nothing”, wrong. Syria has been a long-term ally of Russia, since the times of Hafez, and what about the Qatar pipeline, son Bashir denied?. But this is only the beginning, Russia has divine mission to oppose the Evil Empire, there are no countries or borders, it is just the Empire against the Resistance, empire that does not recognize itself s such is bound to fail, that is Putin’s fundamental flaw.

    • Dr. Pro Liv

      “Russia has divine mission to oppose the Evil Empire”

      Stop right there please!
      What the hell is that idealistic “divine” crap has to do with Russia and Russians?!?
      Russian objectives are only to stand up to ANYBODY who challenges Russia’s independence!
      And that is her DUTY to her people and millions of dead Russians who protected Russia with their lives!
      Only that can be “divine” for Russians and Russia and NOTHING ELSE !
      Russian role is not some protection of anybody and everybody against Evil Empire !
      Now that is total idealistic nonsense !

      • Boris Kazlov

        Are you an imbecile or what? If you look at the planet from space there are no borders, it is a convention, Russia is bigger than that, to speak of Russia without understanding that and the epic moment we are living shows how narrow-minded you are

        • Dr. Pro Liv

          I’m not “imbecile” but I am more than sure that you are the one.
          And very big… a proud to be”imbecile” that’s what kind of “imbecile” you are.

    • Brad Isherwood

      From a cost plus evaluation….it’s not in Putin/Russia’s interest to spend on Syria getting
      All its Sovereignty back ( Even though Vlad talks about Syria Sovereignty ),
      Nor is it in Putin/Russia interest to leave the door open for Iran Shia Cresent.

      Keeping All proposed pipeline routes from crossing Syria is cost plus benefit for Putin/Russia.
      Syria becomes partitioned…where Partners get their piece of the pie to spar with MIC in.

      I do not think Putin will allow the Greater Talmudic Israel. …even though He is favorable to the
      Likudnik and Snake Worshipper Chabad Lubavitch. …
      That vision is not one Putin/Russia will support.

      The Masonic Globalism with its 2 headed Janus of politics,
      Putin/Russia must chose one face .
      Nations are forced play in this globalism

  • Criticalthinker101

    Great article – the propaganda choreography spin, of the Red Army pensioner pushed away by security detail then embraced by Comrade Putin, sums it up wonderfully. Lovely visual propaganda for the unarticulate mind to absorb. Eddie Bernays would approve.

    https://youtu.be/B3YTcRB5xKA

    • Dr. Pro Liv

      You westerners are experts of propaganda!
      That’s why your propaganda is much more subtle!
      Bottom line is you are too good in propaganda for you own sake..
      That’s why are you VICTIMS OF YOUR OWN PROPAGANDA ALL THE TIME !!!

      You even BELIEVE THAT YOU CAN WIN THE WAR AGAINST RUSSIA because you watch too much Superman and other super-heroes CRAP and war movies where you kill everybody with pocket handgun!
      Russians would hand over to you, your merry ass, before you know it !

      • Criticalthinker101

        Me Westerner? Thanks but that’s not a label I ascribe to. The propaganda model of Bernays is from his uncle Sigmund Freud and the Vienna psychoanalytic movement of the 19:30’s. Adam Curtis’ brilliant film explains it. The century of the self – if you’re new to the workings of the theory, then an understanding, as explained by Curtis, can be a cathartic and empowering experience.

        However, no mention of Adam Curtis’ work, in the context of the excellent article above, would suffice without mentioning, Hyper normalisation. Both are brilliant!

        • Dr. Pro Liv

          “Me Westerner?”
          No you are from East huh?! From Asia maybe?

          You are full of it…..you and your fancy talk !

          • Criticalthinker101

            No I’m from the planet earth – clearly we’re not on the same level. You really need to watch The Century of The Self. When you understand ego psychology, you will see how childish you sound.

          • Dr. Pro Liv

            fuck off you Western retarded moron you think I’m interested
            in your drivel ?!
            you are blocked !

          • Criticalthinker101

            But you started our conversation, I’m a humanist – no west and no east, just people and adult discussion. I think you put me in a Westerner box and abused accordingly. FYI I think Russian intervention saved Syria from total destruction and the Syrian people are immensely grateful.

  • Tudor Miron

    they knew all along that Putin was “fake”(c)
    I will say that several Saker articles ago I started noticing and by now I’m convinced that Saker is a fake Russian and a fake friend of Russia. With such friends one has no need for enemies or better in Russian “Таких друзей за хер, да в музей”.

    • Dr. Pro Liv

      I knew that is he fake IMMEDIATELY when he started to spit on Putin and Russia.
      Friends don’t do that….if they have to say something negative they will not do it the way he did…

      • Stone Lodge

        That is complete nonsense. Your ideology is clearly ossified. Saker paints a complex picture, and an accurate one, but Saker’s preferences don’t match up with yours, and so you categorize the writer rather than understanding and critiquing the writing. Friends, by the way, do indeed make honest and forthright statements that may be critical of their friend’s actions or thinking. What you are seeking is conformity and obedience.

        • Dr. Pro Liv

          “Saker paints a complex picture, and an accurate one”

          I just have some Russian blood but Miron here is Russian from Russia so why don’t you explain to him as Western “expert” of Russia (like your Saker) what Russia really looks like… huh?!

          “Saker’s preferences don’t match up with” Miron’s “preferences” so I got mine naturally confirmed through Miron’s also!
          And you know what?
          He thinks exactly the same I do !
          Actually it has helped me to see some things even clearer than ever before!
          So don’t waist you time “EXPERT” and teach the bloody Russian from Russia what Russia is really about!
          And use Google translate to impress him with your knowledge of Russian while you are at it !

          You all Westerners are Tricky Dickies to smart for your pants!

  • Tudor Miron

    I posted this before and last time I tryed posting it in one piece in PCR last article but it was removed as spam by SF moderation (I assume). I will try again :)

    I posted this predictions many times, some of them already happened and that reinforces my urge to share it with others so there is more understanding and people don’t blindly fallow same old route as we’re doing for thousands of years.
    Prediction: According to global predictors (GP) plan, after reformatting of CCCP there comes time to reformatting USA. Center of concentration of power (governing) are being removed from US to China and from UK (Europe) to Iran.
    Problem with GP is that due to natural development of human civilization and rule of time it started to lose control and stability of governing and as a result, humanity is on a verge of total political, ecological, social and military catastrophe.

    Part II to continue

  • Tudor Miron

    Part II. At the same time humanity is on a verge of next technological leap forward (all the previous major leaps were accompanied with major bloodshed.)

    There are only three options:
    Global catastrophe (Nuclear war for example) and current civilization ceases to exist.
    Global chipped concentration work camp were crowd is working hard and consuming little.
    Humanity evolves out of elite-crowd society and civilization takes a new direction.

  • Tudor Miron

    Part III Due to GP’s problems with maintaining high quality governing it’s own GP’s instruments (like country level US elites that are trying hard to maintain current status of world policeman and associated privileges) started to misbehave and even think that they can act against global level governing.
    Remember that GP’s global governing is unstructured i.e. GP’s is creating conditions that lead to predeterminations (multi optional). This way of governing is effective but slow.

  • Tudor Miron

    Part IV.
    Things didn’t go strictly according to plan – Iran is not even close to being ready to assume its role. China is much closer but still far from being ready. Trump (global elites puppet) is having to confront huge resistance from US country level elites.

    Worst than all – Russia didn’t went according to plan. Instead of fallowing CCCP and collapsing into several “souvenir” states it regained large part of its sovereignty and is an independent (not 100%) player conducting its own global politics. Negotiating directly with both GP structures and country level governments.

  • Tudor Miron

    Part V.
    However the plan is always multi optional and we can all witness that many things are going according to plan. China became level (and trend is on their side) with US in terms of producing power. Its military power is increasing and they are actively developing means of power projection.

    To continue if there’s interest to know the rest :)

    • Dr. Pro Liv

      I respect your opinion but i would challenge you.
      Chian is industrial Super Power that outmatches Germany in terms of producing power.
      I find it so unfair to make China equal to US which is country that has lost her industrial capacity except for military industry only.

  • RamboDave

    Perhaps everyone is unaware that just last month, when Bolton and his fellow neocons were calling for a massive attack on Syria, Russia had put on quite a show for our Joint Chiefs with a live fire training exercise just off shore in the Mediterranean. Russia sank an old Syrian frigate with what looks like a hyper sonic missile. (see the video below) “Want some of this ???” … was the message.

    Well ….. the Joint Chiefs got the message. Trumps “massive” attack was toned down into that feeble April 14th missile attack on Syria. Thus, Putin demonstrated who runs the show. The neocons and the Israelis were totally dismayed. In fact, this is probably what led to Netanyahu going to Russia.

    Thank you Russia. We all appreciate what you did to save Syria.

    For the Russia Insider article that explains what happened in the days before April 14th go here:

    HEADLINE: Russian Navy Hit and Sank a Decommissioned Frigate in Syria Live Fire Drills (VIDEO)

    https://russia-insider.com/en/russian-navy-hit-and-sank-decommissioned-frigate-syria-live-fire-drills-video/ri23302

  • Manuel Flores Escobar

    Nothing new under the sun…1º USA failed ( the last attack vs Syria was very very limited using only cruise missile vs an insignificant targets) so the conclusion is that they fear Russia… which surely had 2 submarine and one corvette in black sea ready to attack Sigonella Nato base in Italy…2 corvette in Caspian + 2 frigates in mediterranean sea to attack Jordan air base…a pair of TU-95M and one TU-160 in an air base in Daguestan ready to attack with KH 101/555 Qatar air base…beside in alert 2 Tu-22M and 4 Mig 31( armed with kh-32/Khinzal) in Krasnodar….surely to destroy antimissile shield in Romania…of course British air base in Cyprus was under threat!…Mattis knew that….and warned Trump!…2º Israel know that one thing is to fight vs Hezbollah or Hamas..another thing is to fight vs them + SAA and Iran!…notice that Israel launched 60 missile…and Iran retaliate with 55 rockets vs ELINT ESW base in Golan!..conclusion for Israel.. each day terrorist are being defeating while SAA are turning more strong!

  • christianblood

    (.. Putin has criticized the evil immorality of the western society and
    imperial policies many times (most famously in Munich and at the UN).
    But Putin has never said anything about the evil immorality of the state
    of Israel..)

    Doesn’t Iran itself say that Israel is the small satan but US is the great Satan?

  • RichardD

    I don’t speak or read Russian. But that hasn’t stopped me from direct communication with the Russian government. The Saker is far more qualified and experienced than I am to offer opinions on Russian matters.

    I understand where he is coming from, and have a divergent view. Most Americans don’t speak or read Russian. But they listen to what Vladimir Putin and Sergey Lavrov have to say and give it equal or greater consideration to what US politicians say.

    I agree with the Saker on most issues. My take on the current state of affairs differs on some issues. Putin is a former intel officer. Talking with Netanyahu in Moscow is part of that. I don’t view it as a PR disaster. The Saker ignores, or at least doesn’t address the Syrian government coalition hammering the Israel military in Golan. This was a game changer, and a wake up call to anyone paying attention. The IDF in particular.

    Much of humanity is revulsed by the level of violence employed by the Jews to deal with the demonstrations in Gaza. That’s not a PR victory for the Jew world order or defeat for Russia.

    The reality is that Russia is winning the war big time in Syria. And the balance of force in favor of the Syrian government is growing on a sliding scale compared to the decrease of the Jew world order regime change element. This will continue. The borders west of the river will be cleared and returned to Syrian government administration. Once that’s further along the Syrian government coalition will be in a much better position to sort out issues with the US at the Jordan border crossing and east of the river. Hopefully more with negotiation than use of force. Though some force will probably be used.

    I’m in favor of moving ahead with the planning and preparation stages, along with Israel neighbors, to clear the IDF out of the Golan, Shebaa Farms, West Bank and east Jerusalem. And securing Gaza’s land and sea borders and putting a no fly zone for hostile aircraft in place over it. To move ahead with resolution implementation and dejudification.

    • Samantha Green

      By sacrificing abortion banning Iran, Putin can save fellow abortion rights defending North Korea and Donetz.

  • Rex drabble

    Never read the Saker very much but when I do he is long winded.Seems to be the in thing.
    Very long articles that are painfull to read and I think also to try and convince by their sheer volume of info that isnt necessarily relevant.
    Of the thousands of articles I have read over the last 4 years very few have proven to be accurate.
    It is only one mans opinion nothing more!!!
    Saker doesnt know whether he is Aurther or marther on this subject,,,,Gotta keep the cash rolling in.

  • JEinCA

    I see a lot of pissants on here who intellectually aren’t worthy to shine Andrei’s (The Saker) shoes spitting venom at a brilliant and humble man for not becoming miserable hopeless cynics, suicidal warmongers and crazed Jew haters like the rest of you.

  • Nuno Cardoso da Silva

    Some people demand more from Russia than it is reasonable. In a nuclear war Russia could very probably destroy the US, but that’s not a war Russia will want to fight. If limited to conventional weapons, Russia does not have what it would be necessary to defeat the US in a major conflict. So, the only thing Russia can do is keeping a low level of conflict with the US which will end up in a Russian victory, but a slow victory at such. Little by little Russia will erode US power in the ME, help restore Syrian independence, assist in the defense of Iran and lead Iraq away from a relationship with the US. Without a major confrontation. Some people feel frustrated and would rather see Russia responding with more vigour to the US aggressive posture in the ME, but that is not in the long term interest of Russia. Better a slow victory which will see the US out of the ME, at a minimum cost, than risk a major confrontation which would be detrimental to Russia, even if the US were to lose some major military assets. In fighting the US one needs to be very patient indeed, and not let oneself be carried away by frustration.

  • JustPassingThrough

    “First, people, countries and events are not frozen in time. …..”

    >but your analysis S. is frozen in time. you have an agenda and you bend things to fit. and you spend a lot of bandwith doing it. and it is getting, with all due respect, sillier each time.

    “Second, each process carries within itself the seeds of its own contradiction. ….”

    >maybe you, S., should apply this to your agenda. these processes you refer to are collections of opinions. there is nothing absolute. there will always be an opposite opinion. i remember when your analysis was sharp, concise, seemingly spot-on. what happened?

    “Third, people are imperfect. …..”

    >ALL people are imperfect.

    One could go through your post sentence by sentence and find room to contradict, point to false logic, or personal bias but to no worthwhile end.

    Take a walk in the FL wilderness while it is still there and not totally ruined by the oil industry. 😸

  • What an absolute ridiculous brain dead self opinion based Russia ass kissing junk article with no facts whatsoever, the writer belongs in an asylum for advanced incurable delusional disorder.

  • Ray Douglas

    Russia cannot be a bystander if and when the Zionists attack Iran. The three pillars of opposition to the empire are, Russia China and Iran. If Russia and China stand by and watch the destruction of Iran then one of them will be next. But, by that time it will have been too late for both Russia and China.