The Saker: “Is Putin really ready to ‘ditch’ Iran?”

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The Saker: "Is Putin really ready to 'ditch' Iran?"

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Written by The Saker; Originally appeared at The Unz Review

The topic of Russian actions in Syria still continues to fascinate and create a great deal of polemics.  This makes senses – the issue is exceedingly important on many levels, including pragmatic and moral ones, and today I want to stick strictly to the pragmatic level and set aside, just for a while, moral/ethical/spiritual considerations.  Furthermore, I will also pretend, for argument’s sake, that the Kremlin is acting in unison, that there are no Atlantic Integrationists in the Russian government, no 5th column in the Kremlin and that there is no Zionist lobby exerting a great deal of influence in Russia.  I will deal with these issues in the future as there is no doubt in my mind that time and events will prove how unfounded and politically-motivated these denials are in reality. But for the purpose of this analysis, we can pretend that all is well in the Kremlin and assume that Russia is fully sovereign and freely protecting her national interests.

So what do we know about what is going on in Syria?

I submit that it is obvious that Russia and Israel have made some kind of deal.  That there is an understanding of some kind is admitted by both sides, but there is also clearly more happening here which is not spelled out in full.  The Israelis, as always, are bragging about their total victory and posting articles like this one: “In Syria, Putin and Netanyahu Were on the Same Side All Along” with the subheading reading “Putin is ready to ditch Iran to keep Israel happy and save Assad’s victory“.  Really?

The chaotic world of contradictory declarations and statements

Let’s look at that thesis from a purely logical point of view.  First, what were the Israeli goals initially?  As I have explained it elsewhere, initially the Israelis had the following goals:

  1. Bring down a strong secular Arab state along with its political structure, armed forces, and security services.
  2. Create total chaos and horror in Syria justifying the creation of a “security zone” by Israel not only in the Golan but further north.
  3. Trigger a civil war in Lebanon by unleashing the Takfiri crazies against Hezbollah.
  4. Let the Takfiris and Hezbollah bleed each other to death, then create a “security zone”, but this time in Lebanon.
  5. Prevent the creation of a Shia axis Iran-Iraq-Syria-Lebanon.
  6. Break up Syria along ethnic and religious lines.
  7. Create a Kurdistan which could then be used against Turkey, Syria, Iraq, and Iran.
  8. Make it possible for Israel to become the uncontested power broker in the Middle-East and force the KSA, Qatar, Oman, Kuwait and all others to have to go to Israel for any gas or oil pipeline project.
  9. Gradually isolate, threaten, subvert and eventually attack Iran with a wide regional coalition of forces.
  10. Eliminate all centers of Shia power in the Middle-East.

Now let’s stop right here and ask a very simple question: if Putin and Netanyahu were on the same side all along, what should Putin have done to aid the Israelis?  I submit that the obvious and indisputable answer is: absolutely nothing.  By the time the Russian initiated their (very limited but also very effective) intervention in Syria those plans were well under way towards full realization!

The undeniable truth is that Putin foiled the initial Israel plan for Syria.

In fact, Hezbollah and Iran had already intervened in Syria and were desperately “plugging holes” in a collapsing Syrian front.  So, if anything, Putin has to be the one to be credited for forcing the Israelis to give up on their “plan A” and go to plan “B” which I described here and which can be summarized as follows:

Step one, use your propaganda machine and infiltrated agents to re-start the myth about an Iranian military nuclear program. (…)  If Trump says that the JCPOA is a terrible deal, then this is so. Hey, we are living in the “post-Skripal” and “post-Douma” era – if some Anglo (or Jewish) leaders say “highly likely” then it behooves everybody to show instant “solidarity” lest they are accused of “anti-Semitism” or “fringe conspiracy theories” (you know the drill). So step one is the re-ignition ex nihilo of the Iranian military nuclear program canard.  Step two is to declare that Israel is “existentially threatened” and (…) and let the dumb Americans fight the Iranians.

As I have explained it in great detail here, Russia does not have any moral obligation to protect anybody anywhere, not in the Middle-East and most definitely not Syria and/or Iran.  I have also explained in great detail here why Putin also has a lot of pragmatic internal reasons for not getting Russia involved in a major war in the Middle-East.

Finally, as I have explained here, the Israelis are clearly baiting Iran by striking Iranian (or, more accurately, Iranian-linked or Iranian-supported) targets in Syria. They hope that Iran’s patience will come to an end and that the Iranians will retaliate with enough firepower to justify not only an attack on (relatively low value) Iranian-linked targets in Syria but on Iran proper, thus leading to a guaranteed Iranian retaliation on Israel and The Big Prize: a massive US attack on Iran.

Now let’s look at Russian actions once again.  If Putin was “on the same side with Netanyahu all along”, he would be helping the Israelis do what they are doing, that is baiting the Iranians, right?  But what did Putin really do?

It all began with a statement by Foreign Minister Lavrov who declared that all foreign forces must leave Syria. It is my understanding that no direct quote exists from Lavrov’s initial statement, only interpreted paraphrases.  Lavrov also made some clarifying comments later, like this one. But let’s not get bogged down in trying to decide which was an off-the-cuff comment and which one was “official”, but let us begin by noticing this: even before Lavrov’s comment on “all foreign forces” the same Lavrov also said that “all US forces must leave Syria after the defeat of the terrorist forces“.  May I also remind everybody here that Israel has been illegally occupying the Syrian Golan for years and that the IDF exactly fits into the definition of “foreign force in Syria”? It gets better, according to the Syrians and, frankly according to common sense and international law, the Syrians say that all foreign forces must leave Syria except those legally requested to stay by the Syrian government.  So when the Russians say that all foreign forces including Iranians (assuming Lavrov really said that) must leave Syria they have absolutely no legal or other authority to impose that, short of a UNSC Resolution endorsing that demand.  Considering that the Israelis and the USA don’t give a damn about international law or the UNSC, we might even see a day when such a resolution is passed, enforced on the Iranians only, and ignored by the Israelis.  The trick here is that in reality there are rather few Iranian “forces” in Syria. There are many more “advisors” (which would not be considered a “force”) and many more pro-Iranian forces which are not really “Iranian” at all.  There is also Hezbollah, but Hezbollah is not going anywhere, and they are Lebanese, not Iranian anyway.  No doubt the Israelis would claim that Hezbollah is an “Iranian force” but that is basically nonsense.  And just to add to the confusion, the Russians are now being cute and saying: “of course, the withdrawal of all non-Syrian forces must be carried out on a mutual basis, this should be a two-way street“. I suggest that we can stop listing all the possible paraphrases and interpretations and agree that the Russians have created a holy (or unholy) mess with their statements. In fact, I would even submit that, what appears to be a holy (or unholy) mess, is a very deliberate and crafty ambiguity.

According to numerous Russian sources, all this rhetoric is about the southern part of Syria and the line of contact (it ain’t a border legally speaking) between Syria and Israel. The deals seem to be this: the pro-Iranian forces and Hezbollah get out of the south, and in exchange, the Israelis let the Syrians, backed by Russian airpower and “advisors” regain control of southern Syria but without any attempts to push the Israelis out of the Golan which they illegally occupy. Needless to say, the Syrians are also insisting that as part of the deal, the US forces in southern Syria must pack and leave.  But, frankly, unless the US plans to have tiny (and useless) US enclaves inside Syrian controlled territory I don’t see the point of them staying.  Not only that, but the Jordanians seem to be part of this deal too.  And here is the best part: there is some pretty good evidence that Hezbollah and Iran also are part of the deal.  And, guess what?  So are the Turks.

This sure looks like some kind of major regional deal has been hammered out by the Russians. And if that is really the case, then that would also explain the tense denials in Israel and Iran, followed by more confirmations (also here)  And, just to make things even more confused, we now have Stoltenberg (of all people!) saying that NATO would not assist Israel in case of an Iranian attack which, considering that the NATO Secretary General has no power, that NATO is about 80%+ made up of the USA and that the US now has permanent a “tripwire” force inside Israel and could claim to be under attack, is utter nonsense, but still amusing to note as “adding to the chaos”.

And then there is the apparent Syrian plan to kick out the US from northern Syria which, predictably, Uncle Sam don’t like too much.  So the two sides are talking again.

If all this looks to you like evidence for the thesis that “Putin and Netanyahu were on the same side all along”, then I wonder what it would take to convince you otherwise because to me this looks like one of three things:

  1. some kind of major regional deal has been made or
  2. some kind of major regional deal is in the process of being hammered out or
  3. some kind of major regional deal has been made but nobody trusts anybody else and everybody wants to make that deal better for itself

and, of course, everybody wants to save face by either denying it all or declaring victory, especially the AngloZionists.

So let’s ask the key question: is there any evidence at all that Putin and/or Assad is/are “ditching Iran”?

Away from the realm of declarations and statements and back to the world

Let’s begin with a simple question:  What does Iran want above all else?

I submit that the overwhelming number one priority of Iran is to avoid a massive US attack on Iran. 

Conversely, triggering such an attack on Iran is the number one objective of the Israelis.  They are rather open about that too.  They latest idea is to create a “military coalition against Iran” while trying to please NATO by joining anti-Russian exercises in Europe.

Not because of a non-existing Iranian nuclear program threatening Israel, but because Iran offers a most successful, and therefore dangerously competing, alternative civilizational model to both the AngloZionist Empire and the Saudi-Wahabi version of Islam.  Furthermore, unlike (alas!) Russia, Iran dares to openly commit the “crime of crimes”, that is, to publicly denounce Israel as a genocidal, racist state whose policies are an affront to all of civilized mankind.  Finally, Iran (again unlike Russia, alas!) is a truly sovereign state which has successfully dealt with its 5th columnists and which is not in the iron claws of IMF/WB/WTO/etc types (I wrote about that last week so I won’t repeat it here).

I also submit that Iran also has as a top priority to support all the oppressed people of the Middle-East.  Resisting oppression and injustice is a Quranic imperative and I believe that in its Iranian interpretation this also extends to non-Shia Sunnis and even Christians and Jews, but since I know that this will trigger all sorts of angry accusations of being naive (or even a Shia propagandist) I will concede that helping the oppressed Shia in the region is probably more important to the Iranian leaders than helping all the other oppressed. In secular terms, this means that Iran will try to protect and assist the Shia in Iraq, Syria, and Lebanon and I see absolutely nothing wrong with that at all. In fact, considering the amazing mercy shown by Hezbollah to the SLA in southern Lebanon in 2000, and the fact that currently, the Syrian security forces are acting with utmost restraint in the parts of Syria which have accepted the Russian deal (this even has some Russian analysts outright worried) I think that Iranian-backed forces liberating Syria from Daesh are the best thing which anybody could hope for.

Furthermore, the truth is that for all its other faults, the Ba’athist regime in Syria was tolerant of minorities and that Hezbollah has always been protective of absolutely all the Lebanese people regardless of confession or ethnicity (others might disagree with me, but having studied Hezbollah and Iran for several decades now I come to the conclusion that they, unlike most other political actors, are actually truthful when they state their intentions).

So who is the biggest threat to the Shia and, I would argue, to all the people of the Middle-East?  The Takfiris of Daesh of course.

And what do all the variants of the possible “big regional deal” have in common?  The elimination of Daesh & Co. from Syria.

So how is that against the Iranian interests?!

It isn’t, of course.

The truth is that I see absolutely no evidence at all for “Putin and Netanyahu working together all along”.  What I do see is that some kind of deal is being worked out between numerous parties in which everybody is probably trying hard to cheat everybody else, Realpolitik at its worst and most cynical – yes.  But hardly a betrayal of Iran by Russia.

What everybody seems to be doing is what blacksmith Vakula did in Gogol’s Christmas Story “The Night Before Christmas“: to trick the devil. In Russia, the devil is known as “лукавый” which does not just mean “evil” but also sly/wily/deceitful/wickedly clever. To try to trick the devil is a very, very dangerous and difficult task and I also find it morally very questionable. But in keeping up with our modern value-neutral “realistic” Zeitgeist, we can also debunk the “Putin betrays Iran” on purely cynical and “pragmatic” reasons with no need to appeal to any higher values at all.

For those who have not seen it yet, I highly recommend this (English subtitled) video of Ruslan Ostashko discussing what Israel can, or cannot, offer Russia and Putin:

Ostashko is absolutely right.  The truth is that Israel, unlike Iran, has very little to offer Putin or Russia.  This does not mean that Israel does not have influence over the Kremlin, it most definitely does, but that influence is all “stick”, no “carrot” (which is one of the conceptual flaws in the position of those who deny the existence of a Zionist 5th column in Russia – they are denying the existence of the “stick” while producing no “carrot” thus making Russian policies appear both contradictory and unexplainable: hence a need for all sorts of mental contortions to try to explain them).

But Israel’s “stick”, while undeniably big, is dwarfed by Iran’s “carrot”: not only immense resources and billions of Dollars/Rubles/Rials/Euros to be made in energy and weapons and also many sectors of the economy. There is also the fact that Iran is truly the number one regional power in the entire Middle-East: maybe not big enough to impose its will on all others, but definitely big enough to bring down any major plan or policy it does not approve of. Furthermore, now that the international sanctions against Iran have been officially lifted (the USA’s reneging on its signature notwithstanding), Iran can join and become an influential member of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (along with, possibly, other Middle-Eastern countries). All this makes the Iranian “carrot” very attractive to Russia. There is also a conceptual Iranian “stick”: if Israel gets its way and Iran is massively and viciously attacked by the AngloZionist Empire, and either chaos or a severe crisis result, what would be the impact on Russia and her allies? And, while I don’t think for a second that this is possible, let’s say the Empire puts a pro-AngloZionist regime in power in Tehran and overthrows the Islamic Republic – what would that do to the Russian national security? It would be an absolute nightmare, wouldn’t it?

Look at the relationship between Russia and Turkey before the coup attempt against Erdogan. Surely that relationship was much worse than the relationship currently enjoyed between the Islamic Republic and Russia, right? And yet, when the US attempted to topple Erdogan, what did Russia do? Russia gave Erdogan her fullest support and even, according to some rumors, physical protection during a few key hours.  If Russia sided with Erdogan against the Empire, why would Russia not side with the Islamic Republic, even if we consider only arguments of Russian self-interest?

For an excellent Iranian analysis of the Russia-Iran alliance, check out this article by Aram Mirzaei.

Conclusion

The simple truth is that regardless of declarations and political statements, China, Russia, Iran, Syria and Hezbollah are all dependent on each other and cannot afford to truly betray anybody lest the Empire take them out one by one. To use Franklin’s expression – they all must hang (i.e. stand) together or most assuredly they will all “hang separately”? That does not mean that they all love each other, or always share the same goals? They might also play against each other to some degree, and even try to get some sweet deal “on the side” with the AngloZionists (remember, Assad used to torture for the CIA!), but the facts on the ground and the correlation of forces in the Middle-East will limit the scope of such “mini-betrayals”, at least for the foreseeable future.

True, there is the Saudi factor to take into account.  Unlike the Israelis, the Saudis are offering a lot of “carrot”.  But the Saudis are way too arrogant, they are already messing with Russian interests not only in Syria, but also in Qatar, and their brand of Islam is truly a mortal danger for Russia. Right now the Atlantic Integrationists and Eurasian Sovereignists have achieved somewhat of an equilibrium in the Kramlin. The former is trying to split the EU from the USA and make lots of money, while the latter are left in charge of national security issues, especially towards the South, but this equilibrium is inherently unstable and would be immediately threatened by any meaningful AngloZionist attack. So yes, there is a Zionist Lobby in Russia and yes, it does act as a 5th column, but not, most emphatically no, it is not strong enough to completely disregard the financial interests of the Russian business elites or, even less so, fundamental Russian national security interests.  That is the one of biggest difference between the USA and Russia: Russia, while only partially sovereign, is far from being an Israeli protectorate or colony.  And as long as Russia retains her even partial sovereignty she will not “ditch” Iran, regardless of Israeli whining and threats.

My personal evaluation is that Putin is playing a very complex and potentially dangerous game. He is trying to trick not one, but many “devils”, all at the same time.  Furthermore, if the US Americans have been недоговороспособны (“not agreement capable”) already since Obama, Trump and his Neocon masters have made that even worse.  As for the Israelis, they would make Satan himself look honest and are ideologically incapable of honesty (or even decency).  Frankly, I don’t trust Erdogan one bit and I don’t think that the Russians will ever trust him either.  Call me naive, but I think that Assad has been changed by this war and even if he did, indeed, collaborate with the CIA in the past, I think that he will be a pretty good ally for Russia in the future.  As for Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and Hassan Nasrallah, I see them both as men of honor who will uphold any alliance they formally enter into (informal understandings and temporary mutual interests are a different deal).  I also see them as brilliant and wise geostrategists: they fully realize that Iran and Hezbollah *need* Russia to survive.  So Putin’s policy, while dangerous, is not doomed to failure at all: he is trying to save Syria from the AngloZionsts while avoiding a regional war.  Time is on his side as Trump’s erratic (and that is putting it mildly) policies (or, really, lack thereof) are inflicting tremendous damage on the Empire on a daily basis (see Dmitri Orlov’s excellent analysis here).

I honestly don’t know if Putin’s dangerous strategy will work or not.  I don’t think anybody else does either (except ignorant cheerleaders, of course).  But I do know that even if the sight of Bibi Netanyahu in Moscow with a Saint George ribbon was nauseating to my conscience, this absolutely does not indicate that Netanyahu and Putin are working together or that Russia is “ditching Iran”.  As always, the Israelis feel almighty and brazenly display their arrogance.  Let them.  Just remember the inevitable outcome from that kind of Zionist hubris in the past and wait for the inevitable “oy vey!“.

Finally, there is the single most important fact: the AngloZionist Empire and Russia remain at war, and have been so for at least four years or more.  That war is still about 80% informational, 15% economic and 5% kinetic, but it this is a very real war nonetheless, and it is escalating.  As long as Russia will retain even partial sovereignty and as long as she will offer an alternative civilizational model, even an imperfect one, she will remain an existential threat to the Empire and the Empire will remain an existential threat for the entire Russian civilizational realm.  While hugely important to Israel, the entire Iranian issue is just a sideshow to the transnational leaders of the Empire who see Russia and China as the real main competitors, especially when joined in a symbiotic relationship as they are today.  Hence the crises in the Ukraine and on the Korean Peninsula, hence the constants warnings of a possible full-scale nuclear war (see Eric Zuesse latest article here or Paul Craig Roberts numerous article on his website; also check out Dan Glazebrook’s excellent analysis of Trump’s attempt to repeat the “Rambouillet ruse” in Korea here).  Even if Putin succeeds in moving the EU closer to Russia and away from a (clearly insane) USA, and even if he succeeds in preventing the AngloZionists from directly attacking Iran, this will only further convince the AngloZionist leaders of the Empire that he, Putin, and Russia, are the ultimate evil which must be eliminated.  Those who hope for some kind of modus vivendi between the Empire and Russia are kidding themselves, because the very nature of the Empiremakes this impossible.  Besides, as Orlov correctly pointed it out – the Empire’s hegemony is collapsing, fast.  The Empire’s propaganda machine denies and obfuscates this, and those who believe it don’t see it – but the leaders of the Empire all understand this, hence the escalation on all fronts we have seen since the Neocons re-took power in the White House.  If the Neocons continue on their current course, and I don’t see any indication whatsoever that they are reconsidering it, then the question is only when/where this will lead to a full-scale war first.  Your guess is as good as mine.

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  • Rex drabble

    Your last sentence is absolutely right.Its a GUESS!!
    You blew it about Putin last time,lets see if you can do it again.

  • Joe

    “As I have explained it in great detail here, Russia does not have any moral obligation to protect anybody anywhere, not in the Middle-East and most definitely not Syria and/or Iran. ”

    This statement is about the most stupid statement this chap repeated ….
    Pure rubbish if you think that Russia currently helped Syria for love or charity.

    Russia would have been destroyed economically had Assad fallen …
    The problem is that Syria is nothing but the pipeline and would not have allowed hundreds of thousands dead to save Russia. No obligation ? Come on grow up.

    • as

      Russia do have obligations to protect it’s allies interest however going against it’s own interests is counterproductive. In the end the economical side of things will tip the balance over unless it gets real bad and national security were on the scale.
      My opinion here but I think somewhere someone have convince that western encroachment of Russia would stop once the main driver of it USA self destruct and it can then return to business like before. Except that’s more unlikely.

  • neil barron

    I’m not that smart on the machinations of man but I’ll take you on assessment by assessment of your foggy bottom 20-30 years experience, because it is lost in all the hashish youv’e eaten. Keep them numb and dumb.

  • Free man

    It’s amazing how people can make a living by writing nonsense.

    • Concrete Mike

      Its an opinion peice first of all. Second its free so why are you complaining, some places you have to pay for zionist propaganda( foreign affairs magazine is an example).
      Thirdly its still better than any amalysis you will find on cnn.

      Its a opinion peice ffs

      • Tudor Miron

        It is not “an opinion peice” – it’s a paid work for global nwo. That’s my opinion.

        • Concrete Mike

          You are entitled to your opinion and I respect it.

          How would I know…all i know is rocks and how tu use them LOL

          • S Melanson

            Yes, but you have shown exceptional skill and capability in deploying your weapon of ‘terror’ in battle. The fear you have put in the hearts of your enemies – do you have no compassion for them? Apparently not.

            Well I for one support their right to defend themselves and you should count yourself lucky for the restraint shown in limiting their response to merely saturation bombing of civilian housing with occasional use of cluster bombs or phosphorus.

        • Declan O’Hara

          Tudor Miron: I think it’s an honest opinion piece, and that the author does’nt like global NWO order, but can understand your view that his grim(but realistic,in my opinion)pessimism regard-ing the prospects for the success of Putin’s hopes to bring Europe closer to Russia economically & politically could serve the propaganda needs of a globalist NWO wishing to discourage Mr.Putin. Paid? I don’t think tte author needed to be, but we can agree to disagree on that. Cheers,

      • S Melanson

        ‘It’s free so why are you complaining, some places you have to pay for Zionist propaganda’

        …this line is absolutely priceless!

    • Tudor Miron

      Nothing amazing about it – global cabbal is paying well.

  • Serious

    This is a good and pertinent article.

    I do agree that Putin prevented points 1 to 4, who were indeed the goals of israel and USA but didn’t prevent points 5 to 7 and 10 who were also the goals of israel and USA.

    Putin can make a deal with USA and israel to share Syria. Everybody (unless Syria) is happy. USA has east Syria. Russia has west. israel can target Hezbollah in Syria wherever and whenever they like.

    Then, when Putin goes and another russian president come in power, USA starts step 2 of Syria invasion and finishes the job.

  • Serious

    ” The truth is that Israel, unlike Iran, has very little to offer Putin or Russia.”.
    I don’t think that is a valid point. israel has nothing to offer to USA nor to Europe. It’s the opposite. But, israel controls USA policies.

    Indeed Saudi Arabia has way more to offer to USA. France was making big deals with Saddam Hussein.

  • Serious

    Nothing forbids the fact that points 1 to 4 will be implemented in the futur.

  • Serious

    The only thing that can prevent the points 1 to 4 to happened is to give Syria modern brand new weapons and to create an effective defense and retaliate if attacked.

  • Serious

    And I can say that israel is a big problem for USA. Because israelis always interfere in USA policies. Without israel, USA will have taken the Middle east since a long time without shooting any bullet as Arabs will have welcomed them.

    USA is a very good ally for israel but israel is a very bad ally for USA.

    • Brad Isherwood

      Israel and Jews are experiencing a high water moment in history.
      Globalism is simply using them to effect the overall Global agenda.
      https://www.podomatic.com/podcasts/tkelly6785757/episodes/2018-03-12T06_09_35-07_00
      This podcast covers the history of the crime Jews. …why the get run off all the time.
      Big smack down also occurs. …like when Ancient Assyrian, Babylon and Rome…Crush them!!

      So….Jews can dance for a while yet still,….but the Wheels are coming off this ride.
      People are waking up to the Truth about them.
      The Great powers will run them off
      The cycle repeats again and again.

      • Tudor Miron

        Rumors are that this time will be last time.

  • Nigel Maund

    Another incisive and well argued article by “the Saker”. Russia has an extremely difficult game to play against the corrupt, essentially debauched, morally bankrupt Kingdom of Saudi Arabia and their medieval, vicious and bizarre Wahabi cult and the Zionist State of Israel, which, thanks to the Holocaust and their controlled Western Mainstream Media, gets away with: serial breaches of International Law; war crimes; outright genocide and murder, without a murmur of protest from the World’s press. It all just beggars belief. Then their the Zionist puppet (Vassal) States of the USA,UK, Germany and France that are all controlled by the financial might of the Anglo – American Zionist Bankster – Corporatist Cabal headed by the Rothschild’s and Rockefeller (oil) banking clans. The former playing a key role in the foundation of Israel. So, the Saker is right; Putin is fighting a Cabal of extremely evil, cunning, dangerous, duplicitious, morally banksrupt, corrupt and souless people. It’s one hell of a game to have to try to fight and win.

    Trump is a 100% Zionist puppet taking his orders from the US Zionist Lobby and Jerusalem. To say the least the Middle East and Ukraine are a tinder box ready to go up in smoke at any minute given the right spark. This Russia has to postpone or prevent war; at least until she is economically and militarily strong enough to inflict such massive damage on the Cabal that they realise that war is not a viable option.

    Fortunately, the US faces major economic and fnancial issues that are set to cause massive chaos in the US, EU, Australia and Japan. This should seriously weaken the Cabal’s empire. Morally, the Empire is rotting from the inside out and is little other than a putrid decaying corpse controlled by weak or puppet Politicians rank with vice and crime, totally corrupt judiciary and institutions, a collapsing education system and advanced social decay. In a war, the Cabals military would not stand up to the Russians or Chinese once the first line armies have been destroyed as they lack moral purpose and National indentity, cohesion, community and purpose. The .

  • pet

    If there was no so called Islamic Revolution in Iran there
    would be no ISIS head-choppers today. The whole impetus to the savagery came
    from the mentioned “revolution”. Iran is not anything as described by
    the Saker. Iran is an enemy of every religion as long as it is not Islam, it
    has been proven by its activities from the Yugoslavian civil war when Iran supported
    the Bosnian Muslim fundamentalists, along with the US and the West, against
    Serbs (http://emperors-clothes.com/analysis/deja.htm)
    to Myanmar where Iran is at it again supporting Muslim terrorists and working
    against Chinese interests (http://www.voltairenet.org/article198141.html) .
    The evil should be uprooted irrespective of the Shaker’s opinion or the
    current interests of any other party. The Saker’s love for Iran is a very strange
    affair.

    • John

      I disagree pet. I wish well to you.

    • Goran Grubić HardyVeles

      If I remember well, Mujahedins that fought in Bosnia were illegal in Iran in that time. Actually, they are illegal today – not only illegal but there is death penalty for being Mujahedin in Iran. Correct me if I’m wrong on this.

      • pet

        If you are really a Serb as your name would suggest then I’m truly at loss understanding your ignorance regarding the very recent history of your people:
        http://serbianna.com/blogs/savich/archives/56
        http://serbianna.com/analysis/archives/2351
        http://english.khamenei.ir/news/4015/A-glance-at-Iran-s-support-for-Sunni-Muslims-in-Bosnia-and-Herzegovina

        • Goran Grubić HardyVeles

          Well, I have no special feelling for Iran (believe me), but I would point you to the Iraqi 2008. Mujahedini Camp incident (between Iraqi spec. police and US troops guarding Mujahedinis. The Iraqi police attack took some 90+ Mujahedini lifes, the rest are arested and transfered to Iran. The attack was due Iranian pressure to transfer the prisoners for their execution. I tell you: Mujahedini , in particular (if you can make the difference) are enemies of the Islamic Republic of Iran, ie. of the Revolution. They are Suni militia for God sake!
          Regarding the war in Bosnia, believe me: we (Serbia) sold more weapons to Muslims then anyone else. About the articles: I have no doubt that Iran raced with Saudis and Turkish to help Bosnian muslims in order to gain influence (because, these guys here are formally Sunis but in reality they have no clue what is what, there fore Persian vs Saudi vs Turkish are competing for influence since war begun till today. But where in these articles it tells a word about Mujahedini fighters (sorry, but I missed the term in the text)

        • Goran Grubić HardyVeles

          I’m pro Israel, and I will always be pro-Israel (yea, drop the *ist on me, I don’t mind, I just know whom I feel closer to my self – simply it is immanent to me and I’ll not pretend that it can be different).

    • Serious

      If there was no USA, there was no Islamic revolution in Iran. Iranians voted for Mossadegh but CIA made a coup against him. So, Iranians turned to the ayatollah, the only who can save Iran.

    • AJ

      I suppose US foreign policy & all the regime change adventures have nothing to do with the rise of ISIS in Iraq. I suppose the Saudis have nothing to do with the spread of wahabism which is the underlying belief of ISIS. Yeah its all Irans fault despite the fact they are fighting these groups in Syria. Get real . Iran is not responsible for the terrorist attacks across Europe in the last few years. Sunni militants are.

    • S Melanson

      Ironically, even your scenario ultimately places responsibility for ISIS creation squarely on the shoulders of the US. Why?

      If the CIA had not engineered a coup in 1953, installing the Shah as dictator, there would not have been any revolution to overthrow the much hated US puppet.

    • Bob

      That is one giant, factually incorrect, garbled mess. Iran is a Shia Islamic republic, this form of Islam is considered apostate and an absolute enemy by the fundamentalist, salafist, Sunni Islamic militant factions of ISIS/al-Qeada. The two are long standing enemies. Hence, why Shia-Hezbollah militia fights against the various Sunni-Islamist militia factions in Syria. ISIS/al-Qeada are wholly unrelated to Iran, they are in fact the ideological and practical exported products of the core Sunni Islamic Gulf States – Saudi Arabia and Qatar. Thus at the apex of all this you’ll find that fundamentalist Sunni Islam Saudi Arabia considers Shia Iran as its arch enemy, both ideologically and regionally. Incidentally, it was primarily Saudi Arabia that financed the recruitment and introduction of Islamist fighters, the mujahedin, into the Bosnian conflict – they were largely sourced from Islamist fighters with experience in Afghanistan from late 1980s, Afghan, Pakistanis and various middle easterners on Jihad sponsored by Saudi’s and reliant on CIA for covert transportation. As for Myanmar, yet again these are ethnic Bangladeshi Sunni Muslims – they are not Shia and not related to Iran – and yet once again, the sponsorship of fundamentalist Sunni Saudi Arabia is the real issue – KSA fund fundamentalist Sunni madrassas and militant training camps across Pakistan and Bangladesh.

  • TrumanSparks

    I don’t think it really matters if Putin “abandons” Iran, or not.

    I just don’t see anyone that will take the effort to militarily mess with Iran directly. Israel won’t do it unilaterally and I suspect that the US military leadership knows it can’t win in Iran, short of using nuclear weapons, which they damned sure aren’t going to do.

    Iran is safe for now, regardless of Russian support or lack thereof.

  • as

    Depend on how much Russia or Putin can punish Israel should the latter break it’s silent agreement i guess. Syria and Iran were Russia interest in the region yet that’s exactly what’s Israel wants so it’s useless pandering them regarding the issue however most player knows that Israel themselves can’t and wouldn’t move themselves as the main gears to proceeds. It’s always going to be much praised USM to work in their stead.
    Russia prevented exactly this to works so it’s well enough and terrible enough for the Israel.

  • I don’t think the full scale war will happen.

    According to TASS yesterday, Russia urges CIS states to join Syria’s restoration. The 18th Shanghai Cooperation Organization(SCO) is to be held in China on June 9 and 10. The area of CIS and SCO combined represents 40% of globe. For Chinese Belt and Road, Iran and Syria are strategic spots to lead to Moscow.

    Russia kept low profile for the coming Trump-Kim summit in Singapore but the inside fact was revealed a couple days ago that the top diplomats of Russia and North Korea decided to arrange the North and South Korean joint participation in the Winter Olympic in October, one and half months before the last missile launch of November 28 last year. It does not say how they did it but I have some speculation.

    Also in the article of yesterday’s TASS entitled; Putin vows Moscow will contribute to success of Trump-Kim meeting, there is an important paragraph stating;
    He also shared his vision of steps to settle the situation on the Korean Peninsula after the US-North Korea summit scheduled for June 12.

    “The next stage is multilateral participation of all the interested states, chiefly regional ones, in the development of security guarantees [for North Korea,]” Putin said. He affirmed that Moscow’s proposals – “trilateral economic projects between Russia and the northern and southern parts of the Korean Peninsula” – will be on the table. “These are chiefly infrastructural projects. We are talking about the construction of a railroad, let’s say (and, by the way, China could join these projects as well), between Russia and North and South Korea. We are talking about the installation of a gas pipeline,” the Russian president said. (end quote)

    This means that Russian Far East and Chinese Belt and Road encircle SCO countries and this geo-economic solidarity would deter the full scale war because Russia and China are more advanced in game changing weapons such as hypersonic missile vehicles.
    In addition, as observed with Iran Nuclear deal, Russia, China and India ignore extra-territorial sanctions of the US.
    Paradigm shift from one polar to the multipolar world has been dynamically progressing and no one can stop it.

    Lastly, Mr. Putin looks amazingly prudent for strategy implementation sticking to the set principle. The principles for Russian intervention in Syria are three-fold; 1) protect Syrian sovereignty, 2) fight against terrorism and 3) constitution for the people to decide their leader.
    I am not sure but the reason of the rather lukewarm response of Russia toward Israel aggression is partly because 30% of Israeli is Russian jew and the conflict between Syria and Israel is between sovereign countries.

    • as

      Situation in eastern Europe were bad enough that I’m not surprised they make surprise first strike launch against Russia the moment it relaxed a bit should their frustration reflected what’s their leadership have in mind. Iran just one of the obstacles to the big prize Russia.
      And yes i agree that Russia would want to keep Israel as neutral or even allies if they can have it.

      • Icarus Tanović

        They can play all plays in front of Russian doorsteps, but different thing is to fire on any Russian city.
        And they knows that.

  • marcusbond

    I think it’s easy to get sucked into analysing ‘the conflict’, whilst not considering other issues that are also involved. One has to look at Qatar’s situation, Yemen, Europe’s energy supplies, USA LNG export terminals and decision to become a major energy exporter, widening of Panama Canal to take LNG, floating Nuclear power stations, Nord Stream 2, Saudi Expansion at Red Sea terminals, Iraq energy exports through Saudi Arabia, Ukraine, Donbass, Crimea, Bulgaria’s transit announcement, the Caucuses geopolitical choke point, rebellion in western China, Afghanistan, Russia Nenets Region LNG project, new Russian icebreaker LNG tankers, North & South Korea, Spratly Islands, China’s vulnerable import export routes, Belt & Road initiative, Pakistan Road Infrastructure projects, India/Pakistan relationship, China’s involvement in Maldives & Sri Lanka, Argentina, Chile, Falklands, Antarctica, USA backing off Canadian pipeline projects, Skripal, Brexit, EU, Norway Antarctic deal, Lithuania/Latvia/Estonia, Turkey attempted coup, IS cell in Nenets Region… it just goes on and on…

    The conflict in Syria is absolutely connected directly and indirectly to all these things…

    And when it comes to foreign policy, their are no friends, nor emotions, just pure, pragmatic self interest of states. Ally on one issue, not an ally on another, ally one day, chucked under the bus the next…

  • Brad Isherwood

    Iran tested/R&D some of their MIC in Syria.
    Probably the best and most supporting to Syria in high moments of Empire Evil Malacca,
    Was Iranian Area denial Jamming systems.
    Cuz Putin wasn’t fronting this for Syria as Netanyahu had climbed all over Him to endure Syria was widely open to attack….vs the Total area seal the Russians have with Their Area denial Jamming systems, S 400 etc.
    No….Syria was left to fend off the predators with limits enforced upon those who supported Assad.
    Hence why you did not see Iran’s Mobile version of S 300, or BUK M2E in Syria.
    Nor Iranian SeaCobra copy attack Helicopters with Iranian built TOW missiles.
    Nope….Someone made fucking sure Iran only allowed soldatos with AK 47,Sniper rifles,and some off the shelf older generation ATGMS. ..to be attrition ratio in the Globalist Genocide game ongoing in Syria.
    Iraqi was and is this still ogling by the way.
    Putin goes into Syria Knowing Fully what Empire intends.
    That Putin keeps Iran on a leash is very telling for where Putin/Russia is in the midst of this Globalism game in the mid east.

    Don’t be Surprised when Empire decides to bring the Game to Eurasia and Silk Road.
    Watch how Russia/China mysteriously…. can’t stop the Game.

    There All In on it IMO,….
    Forced play…
    Iran’s not getting Shia Crescent,
    And Israhell is not** getting greater Israel,
    The Globalist don’t give a shit about Jewish fantasy prophetic whatever.
    They however will use National and Religion delusions to effect Their agenda.
    Usefull dupes…Just like Soldiers.

    It’s mainly about $$$Money and Control….attempting a global reach….again.

    • Daula

      Putin dont want to ruin his friendship with the zionist elite in Russia and Israel so he is stepping back as they advised. And same for Trump.

      • Brad Isherwood

        It’s allways about the $$$ Money.
        Notice the pick on main thread of the creepy looking Iranian Muppets.
        Iran’s offshore Banking Mullahs have $$$ Millions stashed offshore.
        The Muppets fall under control and get their piece of the $$$ Action.

        Iranians should throw these rats from off their necks.

        Crime dominates the Political,Religious and Business rackets of this planet .
        It’s probably been so since the Egyptian /Sumerian Preist class hooked up with Oligarchy to install the puppet Rulers and drive the sheeple to slavery,war and other submissions.

    • Joe Kerr

      “… can’t stop the game”? All China/Russia need to do is wait and watch the U.S. destroys itself- as it’s war-indebted economy goes over the cliff, its military power will follow.

  • World_Eye

    There is no such deals it’s all bad and fake news.No one ditching no one

    • Zionism = EVIL

      Russia is a prime target for US and Zionists and it would be suicidal to abandon Iran, the only dependable large stable power on its southern borders. Russia also faces an existential threat posed by the Saudi fanned headchopper Wahhabis. Russia needs to sell self-destruct compromised S-400 to the dumb Saudi morons for triple the price. It is a WIN-WIN for Russia and Iran.

  • russ

    …”As I have explained it in great detail here,
    Russia does not have any moral obligation to protect anybody anywhere,
    not in the Middle-East and most definitely not Syria and/or Iran” …. Russia has to realize they are on the chopping block of the NWO. They on the front page list. Syria is the perfect place to bleed the cabal to death. This cabal knows it is now dashing itself against the rocks and wants to escalate this war into full blown status. They can never win the way this is going, of course Russia and Iran are aware of this wish too. We(US)/Zionist cabal are a world wide plague and knows no boundaries, with a voracious appetite. Of course this cabal would be stopped by full scale nuclear war, but who knows the cost. The proper way is like the Spanish bull fighters that win by exhausting the bull to kill it, and Russia is a master at this.

  • Rafik Chauhan

    US cannot attack iran . Bcuz even they armed force are expose to iran attack in syria iraqqatar kuwait and bahrain. Iran will defenetly atttack US force and thier bases in bahrain and iraq and syria and may be start supporting taliban in afganistan to attack US if they use that base. So US will even loose more then israel. Hezbollah is enough to take on israel.

    • Zionism = EVIL

      Iran’s only rational course of action is to test a nuke and become immortal. DPRK got respect with a far weaker economy just because it has nukes. The moron Trump is groveling all the way to Singapore just because of Kim’s nuclear deterrent. Iranians need to think strategically.

      • Ariel Cohen

        In the case of Iran though, if they ever tested a nuke, they would probably BE nuked. North Korea is a long way from Israel and it doesn’t have much political, economic or religious power anywhere except on the Korean peninsular. Iran does. For Iran it would be like pulling out a one-shot musket, when your enemy could pull out a semi-auto shotgun . .

        • Zionism = EVIL

          You are naive, the Zionist entity squatting in Palestine is a one bomb job as it is tiny. Iran can destroy it at will if it wants to. One 10 kt bomb on Haifa or Tel Aviv and it is curtains, while Iran with a large landmass of 1.64 million sq kms and 84 million people can withstand any nuclear war. Remember Iran is 60% mountains and secondly there are 400 million Shia in the world, I don’t think they will be sitting on their hands if the Zionists try something that dumb and suicidal.The only real option for Iran is to go nuclear like India and Pakistan.

          • Ariel Cohen

            I agree with you about Iran’s huge size and power, but I was not talking about Israel nuking Iran, but the Anglo-Zionist cabal, using US nuclear power to do it. In a one on one fight with Israel, Iran would always win as they have a much larger population plus land mass plus manufacturing power and could wear Israel out. Iran could survive a few nuclear strikes, but Israel, with its lack of defense in depth and ability to take casualties, could not. All I am saying is that if Iran actually blatantly tested a nuclear device, the Zionazis would push their slave dog to use nuclear weapons against them. Just having a nuclear bomb or two does not mean you won’t be picked on anymore. It’s not that simplistic . .

    • Sinbad2

      Don’t forget all those US troops in Afghanistan, only a short tank ride from Iran, and with virtually no air support.
      The Iranians could strap yanks to the front of their tanks, like in Mad Max.
      But the killer for the USA, would be that Iranian missiles would destroy Saudi oil wells, and so destroy the US dollar.
      Without the dollar, the US is nothing.

    • Wise Gandalf

      :)))

  • Manuel Flores Escobar

    Russia has the Gas key that is supplied to EU ( almost 50%)..while Iran has the Petrol key( Ormuz strait) that is supplied to EU ( more than 50%)…therefore a world war vs Russia and Iran would be a bad bussiness for NATO and its capabilities due to lack of fuel…

    • marcusbond

      So a reduction in energy supplies from Russia / Iran / Qatar might be good for the USA/Australia etc? As they are scrambling to ramp up energy exports of gas and oil…

      https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=34032

      Means the EU might be forced into buying energy from states that the USA want’s it to buy from… just look at how many LNG import terminals are under construction or planned in the EU…

      http://www.gie.eu/download/maps/2017/GIE_LNG_2018_A0_1189x841_FULL.pdf

      • Manuel Flores Escobar

        I am talking in case of war…USA dont have enough supplies …imagine in case of war!

        • marcusbond

          At pre 2008 rates of growth, the Continental USA had sufficient proven unconventional hydrocarbon reserves to supply their own domestic oil and gas requirement for over 300 years. If they put their mind to it, they have sufficient reserves to supply the whole world for 40-50 years. They can easily supply their allies for much longer.

          They have put their mind to it….

          The first thing Trump did was clear new pipeline construction to the southern USA refineries. Shortly after, 3 test tankers were sent to Southern Europe, the UK and Northern Europe.

          Saudi Arabia has expanded it’s Red Sea terminal capacity, it was finished just a couple of months ago, and it is now able to supply their total export market from the Red Sea. It has freed itself of dependence on exports through the Persian Gulf.

          Iraq is now exporting much of it’s production through Saudi Arabia to Red Sea ports too.

          Russia is scrambling to massively expand it’s LNG capabilities in Yamal/Nenets region. And recently tested it’s new Ice Breaker LNG Tankers, which will be necessary to operate in these waters.

          • S Melanson

            I see what you are saying but huge reserves does not translate to huge production flows, especially for unconventional reserves. The Canadian oil sands represent huge reserves but Canada’s National Energy Board (NEB) predicts peak tar sands production by 2030 of approximately 5 million barrels per day due to the constraints inherent in the complex extraction process.

            It would not be easy to supply the EU let alone all allies. LNG is only 12% of EU gas deliveries and the US has 5% of the LNG market in the EU – or approximately 0.5% of the market overall. This is growing and the US may reach 20% of the LNG market over the next decade but this translates only to maybe 2.5% of the total market. LNG cannot compete with cheaper Russian pipeline gas but is part of the mix to diversify sources of gas for energy security. The US may strong arm the EU but this will go only to far, as firms will not invest the huge capital into long term LNG projects that are not economical under normal market demand conditions.

            This is because the projected demand support is artificial, based on current foreign policy which could change overnight while long term LNG projects will represent sunk costs that cannot be recovered due to oversupply in LNG markets.

          • marcusbond

            The USA is perfectly capable of doing what it likes. If it’s in their interests, and the will is there.

          • Manuel Flores Escobar

            And so what?…in case of war petrol ships are an easy targets beside export through red sea ports are not enough to the demand!…if petrol ships are afraid of pirates and need Atalanta operation…imagine petrol ships crew knowing that they are main targets for Russian forces!

      • Sinbad2

        Gas exports mean nothing for Australia, Australia gains no financial benefit, Chevron keeps it all.

  • Django

    For the good sake: “Keep on guessing, friends.” As long you do so, it is not worth to write a word about it, unless it is your job to confuse and mislead our train of thoughts. A typical strategy selected by the Anglo-zionists.

    No, it is not the Russians who are crippled by the Empire and forced to listen and perform other ways. Experience shows that when the Israelis or other foreign opponents loudly market the results of their visit to the Russian government in the media, the outcome of the talks is completely different from what they think they should explain. As long as the Russians do not confirm those results there is no agreement.

    But still, … Russia wants peace in the first place and will force itself and its partners to take back gas if this serves the purpose and brings a solution closer. The wind that prevails today indicates the fact that behind the scenes there is a lot of bargaining and strategies are being adjusted. But you can take poison that Putin and Co. wont be cutting off their holographic nose to spite their face and betray their own partners. The great game of chess has always been dominated by the East , as one Brzeziński does not change anything with his ‘Grand Chessboard’… Time will tell and time is on our side. There is much more at stake in the world, than to maintain an empire in decline.

    When nothing done, the Wild West will collapse faster than expected, … The Anglo-zionists are currently only seeking to reserve as many lifeboats as possible for themselves and where possible to fit in, to continue their criminal work. The East, on the other hand, has a firm plan, but does not benefit from an overly implosion of the West because it can also block or delay its development, which can also cause serious problems internally. No wonder that diplomacy is the best weapon the Russians have been using since the ’90s. And it works!

    • Tudor Miron

      “unless it is your job to confuse and mislead our train of thoughts. A typical strategy selected by the Anglo-zionists.”(c) Well said.

  • BBHermes

    ” I also see them as brilliant and wise geostrategists: they fully realize that Iran and Hezbollah *need* Russia to survive.”

    Absolute rubbish. They will certainly work with Russia for mutual short-term interest, but both also know that Russia will sell them out in the wink of an eye if it suited Russia’s narrow interests. So the last thing either will do is put oneself in a position to “*need* Russia to survive”.

  • Sinbad2

    The Saker has been losing his marbles for some time, and it seems to be getting worse, maybe it’s drugs, maybe Uncle Samuel wants to circumcise him, who knows?

    • Tommy Jensen

      $ can take on most men´s balls.

  • Mo

    Any analysis of selective data, or excluding any available fact; will cause to theorize and support a per-assumed conclusion, and is majorly flawed. Not worth a review. Next time, In a public interview, the former head on US state Dep. Hillary Clinton publicly stated that she
    does not take orders from the white house and she is under direct orders
    of Henry Kissinger. Fact is that Trump, Obama, Jinping, Macron, May, Merkel, Putin, Erdoğan and Netanyahu all have admitted at one time or another to (at the least) taking advice on Syria from Henry Kissinger. Putin even called him “one of his his best friends”. Any analysis that does not include Henry Kissinger’s new world order (revolt in heaven) will prove deadly wrong in many way more than one.

  • Ariel Cohen

    Brilliant analysis by the Saker. Well thought out and presented. I would add just one more point to the mix of speculation: that Putin, being the excellent chess player that he is, is also using Trump’s exceptionalism and unilateralist attitude to drive a not so subtle wedge between the US and Europe. The Europeans are already starting to see Putin as a reasonably stable, pragmatic political player, as opposed to the perpetually recycled asylum escapees that inhabit the US White House, Senate and Congress. Unilateral sanctions against European states that continue economic investment in Iran is a case in point, not to mention the seemingly unstable and violent missile attacks on any ME state that dares to defy America’s master-manipulator, Israel . . .

  • RichardD

    I agree with the Saker that Russia has a Jew internal/external 5th column that could destroy Russia and mass murder most of the remaining 1/2 of the Russian people this century that they didn’t kill off last century. Russia would be much better off without Jews and would greatly benefit from outlawing Judaism like the Chinese and many others have done over the past 3,000 years to the present time. The whole planet would be better off without this evil cult which is humanity’s number one problem.

  • jako

    “Your guess is as good as mine”

    Bad mouthing Russia and Putin has become habit for you….
    My “guess” is quite some time the same and it goes like this :

    Fuck off Saker. !!

  • Neno Jovanovic

    Saker, I stop reading his work after his defeatist crying lately, and I will never read one word from him. I did recommend same to all, that pussy doesn’t deserve time wasted on reading his … fecal excrement. Same goes for Korybko, another from that group of cry babies.

  • Neno Jovanovic

    Saker, I stop reading his work after his defeatist crying lately, and I
    will never read one word from him. I did recommend same to all, that
    pussy doesn’t deserve time wasted on reading his … fecal excrement.
    Same goes for Korybko, another from that group of cry babies.

  • No.

  • Alex Popoff

    1. That would be great for Russia if US will destroy Iran into several republics (Kurdistan, Belugistan, South Azerbaijan etc.).
    2. That would be great for Russia to move out Iran from Syria with Israel’s hands.