0 $
2,500 $
5,000 $
1,870 $
4 DAYS LEFT UNTIL THE END OF JANUARY

The Saker: Drums Of War In The Ukraine (Open Thread)

Support SouthFront

The Saker: Drums Of War In The Ukraine (Open Thread)

Click to see full-size image

Eastern Ukraine is close to become an escalation point for the next full-scale war, which has the potential not only to destabilize the European region, but also to involve all the leading world powers, becoming a global military conflict. SouthFront is closely monitoring developments in the Donbass region and we are concerned about the sharp increase in military activity there.

Our friend The Saker launched an open thread with the most relevant information and discussion of the situation in Donbass. We invite you to join it following the LINK.

Dear friends,

The situation around the Ukraine is very rapidly escalating and there are a lot of signs that everybody is preparing for some kind of crisis.  I would draw your attention to Andrei Martyanov’s blog and, specifically, this article of his: https://smoothiex12.blogspot.com/2021/04/they-neocons-may-have-anger-issues.html. I would also point you to this recent article on ZH: https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/frightening-escalation-looms-russia-warns-nato-against-sending-any-troops-ukraine.

So far these are the key elements of what is taking place:

  1. First, the Ukronazis have moved a large force (infantry, armor, artillery, MLRS, etc.) close to the line of contact.
  2. Ukrainian forces have also penetrated into the “grey zone” which was supposed to remain neutral and separate both sides.
  3. Kiev has officially approved a doctrine which calls Russia the enemy.
  4. The Ukrainian Chief of Staff has admitted that the Ukrainian forces are forward deployed and in the highest state of readiness.
  5. The diversity-freaks who now run the US “diplomacy” have made numerous statements in full support of the Ukraine.
  6. NATO has failed to reach any consensus (Germany seems to be the main reason for this).
  7. The Poles are now openly provoking Russia by sending military ships (surface and one sub) and aircraft in the direct proximity to the Russian pipe-laying ships in the Baltic.  In one case, a Polish fishing vessel has even rammed a ship claiming “engine problems”.
  8. The French AFP reports that General Mark Milley spoke with General Valery Gerasimov, the Russian Armed Forces chief of staff, and General Ruslan Khomchak, chief of the general staff of the Armed Forces.
  9. Russia has been steadily reinforcing her western border and, especially, Crimea.
  10. The Donetsk People’s Republic has declared a mobilization of all her reserves.
  11. The internal situation of the Urkonazi occupied Banderastan is quickly degrading due to the pandemic, the infighting of various factions and the economic freefall.  What does the government do to counteract these problems?  Repeat “Russia!  Russia!  Russia!” like a mantra.
  12. There are consistent reports that NATO is either already on high alert or will soon be.

Things are going to move really fast now, so I am opening this open thread primarily to REPORT FACTS.  You are welcome to include a commentary, but please let’s not make this is the kind of “stream of consciousness” thread which trolls and low IQ folks seem to revel in.

Please note that I have updated the moderation rules (see here: http://thesaker.is/moderation-policy/) with the following rule: “Okay, I am fed up with all this idiotic “there is no pandemic” nonsense. So, from now on, any post denying that there is a pandemic will be removed and its author banned.”.  There are a gazillion of websites out there which will welcome such nonsense with open arms and a standing ovation – please make them happy and post that there, not on this blog.

I have asked the moderators to strictly enforce this rule.

Finally, this open thread is NOT to be used to discuss my evil censorship, the horrible rules I impose or how much you despise me.  There are other websites which will also welcome that with open arms.

Here, I get to set the topic and the topic today is the Ukraine, NOT my horrible COVID-gullibility.

Having clarified the above, I turn this thread over to you.

Kind regards

The Saker

You can join the thread following the link: http://thesaker.is/drums-of-war-in-the-ukraine-open-thread/

MORE ON THE TOPIC:

Support SouthFront

SouthFront

Subscribe
Notify of
guest
163 Comments
Oldest
Newest Most Voted
Inline Feedbacks
View all comments
johnny rotten

Before shouting: wolf, wolf!!! You need to ask a simple question: is Ukraine able to launch a serious attack against independent republics? Many doubts remain in this regard, however we would see developments.

Phoron

I reckon that in the event of a fully committed offensive, some limited gains may be made until the most reliable units take too many losses and the bulk of Kiev forces- low confidence units – totally shit the bed.

Jihadi Colin

Yes it can. It can overrun then quite easily if it launches a serious attack because it is much stronger than in 2014, has total air supremacy, and the Donbass Republics have neither natural defences nor strategic depth.

johnny rotten

It is true the opposite, the Ukrainian army has worsened much over the years, was evaluated that it could take off a very short offensive times, in addition Belarus stopped selling diesel to Ukraine with the excuse that he must Stop all refineries, and if not enough the conscripts have no desire to get killed at all, the bellicose statements are turned more than anything else to internal politics and the new Western Masters, but between saying and doing the difference is still a lot.

Jihadi Colin

Not according to Russell Bonner Bentley, who’s in Donetsk:

“About the coming war, in which many refuse to believe

The reaction of the Russian audience to the events around the transfer of troops to the southern regions of the country is a little surprising. Most agree that there is nothing extraordinary in this, but that the spring-summer period of the exercises has just begun.

I would like to point out a few things here. First, the equipment goes to the Rostov region and the Crimean peninsula not only from the southern regions (Krasnodar Territory, Volgograd Region), but also from the Central District. All this is superfluous for battalion tactical exercises, which are conducted by the forces of local military units.

Secondly, no military district-scale exercises were announced in the south. Neither April nor May.

There is only one conclusion: the transfer of equipment and manpower to the Black and Azov Seas has other goals. And they are quite obvious.

President Putin has repeatedly made statements that Russia will not abandon the Donbass. About a month ago, he repeated these words again. Therefore, against the backdrop of a really serious build-up of forces of the Armed Forces of Ukraine on the line of contact, as well as not far from the border with Crimea, the transfer of our military closer to the place of the likely resumption of the conflict is not only justified, but also natural. Why some have doubts about this matter – I do not understand.

Military experts in Russia, as well as people on the ground, admit the obvious – the forces of the parties in the Donbas are incomparable. Kiev, no matter what they say, has concentrated in the region a very large grouping, which surpasses the forces of the DPR and LPR combined by 3-4 times. Plus complete air supremacy. I consider it extremely unnecessary to laugh at the “Bayraktars” and “Javelins” with which the Ukrainian troops are armed today. And if we help to fight the first ones (on the way to the Rostov region, a train with the Tor-M2 air defense system has already been seen), then neither we, let alone the Donbass, simply have an antidote to the anti-tank system produced by the United States. And this ATGM is very serious and poses a really big threat to the tanks of the militia.

The Ukrainian army has been actively arming for the last 4-5 years. The unit received modernized armored vehicles, MLRS, managed to put about 15 combat aircraft on the wing, and conducted regular exercises. Of course, one cannot say that this is a completely different quality level of the troops, but some work was done, including with the help of Western instructors.

It should be understood that the territories of the DPR and LPR are relatively small pieces of land, poorly protected by natural relief, and in the case of blitzkrieg tactics, they will be taken quickly enough. With the start of the offensive operations of the Armed Forces, the count will go on for days. Knowledgeable people agree that the decision in the Kremlin to deploy regular units of the RF Armed Forces in Donbas should be made no later than 14 hours after the Ukrainian Armed Forces crosses the demarcation line. Otherwise, the conflict will end with the encirclement of Donetsk and Luhansk, followed by Kiev’s seizure of the Ukrainian-Russian border under its control.

As you understand, Moscow cannot allow this.

In a possible conflict, Russia will be forced to actively use aviation, the fact of which it will not be possible to hide. Yes, it is not necessary. Obviously, during the last conversation with Merkel and Macron, Putin made it clear that Russia will not stand aside and will do everything to stop the advance of the Ukrainian Armed Forces. The Americans, who, in fact, are the main customers and beneficiaries of the coming war, understand this perfectly well, and this is exactly what they expect from Moscow.

The operation to force Ukraine to peace, which Russia will carry out under the pretext of protecting its citizens, will become a pretext for new sanctions against our country. But not only. The new restrictions, which, by the way, can really hurt the economy of the Russian Federation, will be followed by a tsunami of military hysteria. It will result in a significant increase in the number of American troops in Europe, followed by the deployment of ground-based strike missile systems in Romania and Poland. Washington needs to show the Europeans that Russia is an aggressor that needs to be contained. And Kiev is ready to play along with it.

As for Crimea, where additional forces of the Armed Forces are also being drawn, here a conflict is unlikely. Kiev will not repulse the peninsula, sending its soldiers to certain death, and this is not necessary. There are Russian troops there, which is obvious, while their presence in Donbass just needs to be proven and shown to the whole world.

And let them prove it. We should stop being ashamed of something, hiding our intentions and goals, making excuses for what we have done. We do not start wars, but we can end them. To finish in a meaningful way, so that others think a thousand times before crossing our path.”

Bentley, who can’t stand me, is a man of honour who left America to fight for the Donbass, unlike the hypocritical White Russian emigre coward Andrei the Saker Raevsky.

Jihadi Colin

Nobody is talking about Crimea. They’re talking about the Donbass Republics.

johnny rotten

ZE spoke to it and showed the plans, but it is only all of BS, which on average comes out at every occasion, read the article I linked to you, and if it is not enough to hear what Peskov said:
https://francais.rt.com/international/85315-fake-moscou-balaie-speculations-sur-conflit-imminent-entre-ukraine-russie

Jihadi Colin

There is 0% chance of them retaking Crimea. There is an extremely good chance of them overrunning the Donbass Republics, approaching 100%, unless Russia openly intervenes, and if Russia intervenes a half hearted intervention would be worse than none at all. If it comes in it has to come in hard and make sure the rump Ukranazi coup regime can never threaten anyone again.

The White Russian emigre know it all and high priest of Putin, Andrei the Saker Raevsky, has been prophesying the imminent breakup of Ukraine since 2015. If it was going to happen by itself it would have by now. It will not happen unless someone makes it happen.

johnny rotten

What do you think Russia that in 2008 has ragged Georgia to not make them take the Abkhazia, would you leave to massacrate hundreds of thousands of Russian citizens, if not millions? I don’t know how many in the donbass they gave Russian citizenship, there will be no war, just chat for internal use and use of money requests from allies, but nobody will give more to ukraine, it ended up ukraine and not It’s up to save her.

Jihadi Colin

All Russia needed to do in 2014 was to move in, reinstate Yanukovych, eliminate the Nazis, and withdraw. To this day Yanukovych has not resigned and he was the legitimate president of Ukraine. Now the Nazis can openly storm Zelensky’s Rada (they did so on 16 March), they run the country, Amerikastan is urging them on, and the war that Putin refused to fight in 2014 will be ten times worse now.

johnny rotten

Will see.

Tommy Jensen

You dont know whether Russia could or not. Crimea was a very important but also a difficult and heavy task.
To take on a whole Ukraine and deal with a hostile Nato is something you only do in your mothers basement.

Jihadi Colin

Deal with a hostile NATO? As opposed to a friendly NATO, which Russia is “dealing with” every day? The NATO that was not in Ukranazistan in 2014? That NATO?

FlorianGeyer

You forget Biden’s basement , complete with an OAP portaloo.

Biden wargamed a Russia V Ukraine conflict in his basement, complete with US transgender commando’s and apparently the US special forces ‘going commando’ as they attacked Russia, caused the Russian soldiers to die of laughter :)

Diana Cornwell

Exactly.

Diana Cornwell

Thanks for sharing this.

Russians need to wake up.

The Saker is a Muslim lover and a propagandist for Islam: https://thesaker.is/deconstructing-islamophobia/

bob ajem

he’s admitted his admiration for Erdogoatfucker on Unz review.. he can go pound sand

Garry Compton

Declaration of War supposedly signed by Zelinsky on March 24th – against Crimea and Russia. Game on .

Jean de Valette

Do you have a link to Bentley’s text? Can’t find it.

Thank you.

Diana Cornwell

The Ukrainians purchased Turkish drones which were extremely successful against Russian weapons systems leading to Armenia’s resounding defeat against Azerbaijan — which was enabled and equipped with better tanks and armaments by Putin himself, to the amazement of Russia’s Armenian allies.

Jihadi Colin

I have posted an article by Russell Bonner Bentley on this thread where he makes it clear that the Bayraktars should not be underestimated.

Every bit of this contretemps, 100%, could have been avoided if the White Russian hypocrite the Saker’s deity Putin had crushed the Ukranazis in 2014, as even Russian military blogs had been straining at the leash to do.

Diana Cornwell

Of course I agree with that.

Putin is a traitor who is making everything worse for everyone by sowing general confusion, thus making costly miscalculations by all parties involved much more probable.

Putin is the opposite of a genius. He’s a greedy little psychopath who wants a cut from everyone.

Putin is a dangerous little nut who belongs in an institution, and not at the head of a nuclear force.

As you put it so very well, Putin made things much worse in Ukraine (and the Caucasus and Asia Minor as well).

bob ajem

ny understanding is that chabad lubbovitch has Putin wrapped around their pudgy sausage finger.

Diana Cornwell

I concur with your assessment.

Jesus

Bayaktars in Ukraine will do very poorly when Russia declares no fly zones, Russia having overwhelming air superiority,EW and SHORAD defenses.
A couple of hundred of Javelins is not much considering the Russian tanks have active protection systems, and the withering artillery the crews will have to endure before they see any tanks.

Jihadi Colin

Let Putin declare a no fly zone first and then we’ll see. I have zero confidence in Putin.

Diana Cornwell

Like Putin didn’t in Afrin and enabled Russia’s Turkish NATO enemy invade, occupy and ethnically cleanse an entire region of Syria?

AJ

Any drone will be successful if allowed to fly around at will without shooting it down, Armenians were just incompetent

Diana Cornwell

Their Russian AA systems were unable to shoot down Turkish drones — get this: because the drones flew too slowly(!) just beyond the Russian systems’ effective range.

AJ

I dont know what AA systems the Armenians had but Russia itself in Syria has shot down hundreds of militant slow flying drones attacking Khmeimim Air Base

Diana Cornwell

Well, the Russians didn’t provide anything useful to their supposed allies the Armenians.

Who needs enemies with allies like the Russians. Didn’t Lenin give Armenian lands to the Turks? Didn’t Stalin give Armenian Karabakh and Nakhichevan to the Azeris? Didn’t Putin say Karabakh is Azerbaijan, and help the Azeris kill 5000 Armenians and retake Karabakh?

Russians make me sick.

Jesus

Nonesense, Russian air defenses are layered and they can engage targets, drones included from a few hundred yards to 400 kms.

Lone Ranger

Not the AA systems but the political leadership…
Most the air defense and jets were offline.
Thats what you get if you are run by CIA/Soros traitors…

Diana Cornwell

Even the Tor systems they had were destroyed after downing a couple of drones.

Pashinyan is as much Putin’s tool as he is anyone else’s. Pashinyan did not do everything by himself. The entire Armenian administration and leadership chain is compromised.

Everyone including Putin and Erdogan want Pashinyan to stay because that insures Armenian weakness.

Lone Ranger

BS.
Most the air defenses were deliberately shut down, Pashinyan tried to inflict maximum damage on Armenia because he wanted to force Russia to fight the war instead of Armenia.
He failed.
Putin hates him, and its vice versa.
But Russia is not the U.S., they wont topple govts only because they font like them.
As it seems there is no need to, Pashinyan days are numbered, the people and the military leadership both want him out du to high Treason.
Russian AA systems are the best in the World, stop spreading BS lies…

Diana Cornwell

Well,

We’ve seen your Russian systems in action in Syria against the Israelis, and in Armenia against Turkish drones only flying at 250 km/h.

Apparently the Russians do not provide anything much effective to their allies.

But the Russians deliver S-400s to their NATO-member enemy Turkey after the Turks kill Russian ambassadors and Russian pilots.

Go ahead and think what you will. Personally, Russians make me sick.

Lone Ranger

Well,

We’ve seen your Isisraeli/Americant systems in action in Syria against the Syrians and in Georgia against Russian drones only flying at 250 km/h.

Apparently the Americants do not provide anything much effective to their allies.

But the Americants deliver Patriots to their NATO-member enemy Turkey after the Turks kill CIA run Gulen trolls and ambassadors and Americant pilots.

Go ahead and think what you will. Personally, you make me sick.
Fixed Shlomo 🤗
Dont forget to slurp your matzoball soup will before it gets cold…

SnowCatzor

No. Almost all of Armenia/NK’s AA systems involved in the war were old Soviet Osa’s and Strela systems that predate drone warfare. As you pointed out: a unit of their best AA system, the Tor, downed several drones in a few days. But it was only destroyed after the Armenians hid it in a warehouse, which was spotted by Azeri special forces.

Many people watch Turkish propaganda drone-strike videos and think ‘wow they must be really good’, but don’t realize how many drones get downed in the process. Nor did these drones stop the Azeri’s from suffering nearly 3000 KIA in the NK war last year.

Diana Cornwell

Yes, but the Azeris won because of the drones. Without them, it was at best going to be a stalemate.

Putin said, ‘Karabakh is Azerbaijan’ and sealed its fate.

Everyone betrayed the Armenians — including the Armenians themselves. As always.

bob ajem

Pashynian at best is an incompetent tool… at worse a traitorous zio plant…. The Armenians saw what the Turks did in Lybia and had six months to make contingency plans… instead he was too busy promoting Globohomo in Yerevan and enjoying the frills of being “the peoples’ choice”. Of course the murderous kleptocracy that preceded him open the path to this buffoon taking power..The Georgians let 5 Israeli cargo plans a day cross from Turkey to Baku, none from Russia to Armenia, which offered too little too late anyway.

Diana Cornwell

Quite so.

Now Putin — along with Erdogan and Aliyev — supports Pashinyan because he knows Pashinyan is destroying Armenia. Yes, previous Armenian administrations were a bunch Armenia-destroying gangsters as well, only thinking about filling their pockets, not Armenia’s defenses. I believe they sold their some of their own weapons to foreigners right before the war started?

Armenians are pathetic that way. I feel sorry for them because everyone betrays them all the time, but they aren’t helping themselves either.

Diana Cornwell

The Russians didn’t even provide missiles for the jets they sold the Armenians.

Think how many armed Chinese drones the Armenians could have bought with that money.

The Russians are screwing the Armenians left and right.

Lone Ranger

The CIA didn’t even provide missiles for the jets they sold the Armenians.

Think how many armed Chinese drones the Armenians could have bought with that money.

The CIA is screwing the Armenians left and right.

Diana Cornwell

Oh, you’re the parrot one?

Won’t be addressing you again.

Lone Ranger

Oh that hurt my lil heart…😥

erwin vercauteren

losers never do bravo

erwin vercauteren

ARMENIANS SCREWED THEMSELVES RUSSIA OCCUPIER WELL OK HAVE A GOOD TIME AND RUSSIA WON AGAIN HI HI THAT HURTS ISN’T IT

Ricky Miller

The Armenians didn’t have any modern short to medium range air defenses, not having the ability to pay for them. The systems operated by the Russian forces are plentiful, modernized and have teeth. Drones and loitering munitions will have some success, but not enough to be militarily relevant.

Diana Cornwell

Yes,
Who needs enemies with allies like the Russians?

Putin himself argued that Armenian lands belonged to Azerbaijan.

When some EW assistance from the Russians would have precluded an Azeri win.

But as you guys are fond of insisting, Russians shouldn’t give anything “for free” to their allies.

At this rate, Russians won’t have any allies left. How economical.

Lone Ranger

Yes,
Who needs enemies with allies like the Americants?

Biden himself argued that Armenian lands belonged to Azerbaijan.

When some EW assistance from the CIAisis would have precluded an Azeri win.

But as you guys are fond of insisting, CIA shouldn’t give anything “for free” to their allies.

At this rate, pedonazi Americants won’t have any allies left. How economical.

erwin vercauteren

WITCH RUSSIAN SYSTEMS ? ARM%ENIA IS WESTERN BASED MILITARY EXCEPT SOME MISSILES AND INFANTRY WEAPONS

erwin vercauteren

AND TRAINED BY THE USA AND UK THAT IS WHY THEY ARE LOSERS

SnowCatzor

“extremely successful” my ass, they lost scores of drones to even more dated systems in Syria, Libya and NK. Against the modern Russian AD and electronic warfare systems positioned in and near the Donbass, drones wouldn’t stand a chance.

So sick of people thinking drones (or Turkish drones in particular) have somehow ‘changed warfare’. That is completely erroneous and anyone who thinks that is in for a reality check if drones ever go up against a first-class military. Hell even, the SAA managed to repeal Turkey’s own drones and retake areas of Idlib occupied by Turkish troops and their proxies.

Diana Cornwell

Well, the Russians didn’t provide their *allies* the Armenians anything to effectively disable the drones — not even one EW unit.

But then you guys keep saying that Russians shouldn’t give anything “for free” to their allies the Armenians.

Are the Syrians paying for all the tanks, ammunition and supplies they’re getting from the Russians?

Then what am I saying? Their “ally” Putin himself effectively said, ‘Karabakh is Azerbaijan.’

Lone Ranger

Well, the CIA didn’t provide their *allies* the Armenians anything to effectively disable the drones — not even one EW unit.

But then you guys keep saying that CIA shouldn’t give anything “for free” to their allies the Armenians.

Are the Isisraelis paying for all the tanks, ammunition and supplies they’re getting from the U.S.?

Then what am I saying? Their “ally” CIA itself effectively said, ‘Karabakh is Azerbaijan.’

SnowCatzor

And why should Russia give all it’s weapon exports for free? No one does that. Besides, Pashinyan is anti Russian and pro EU/NATO, so why should Putin save his neck?

Diana Cornwell

Why give anything free to your ally?

Right?

Diana Cornwell

Why should Russia give anything for free to its ally Armenia when Russia is claiming that Karabakh (Armenian lands) is Azerbaijan, thus supporting the enemy of its ally?

Why should Russia support Armenia even though Russia has recognized the Armenian genocide committed by the Turks (the Azeris are Turks)?

Why,

Russia should drop the Armenians and ally herself with her NATO enemy Turkey and Azerbaijan.

Wait…

You already did that.

Those smart, righteous Russians expert at 5D chess…

Jesus

The Russians are not going to stand on their hands if Donbas is attacked, their stand off weapons can engage Ukrainians and show them a repeat of the steel rain that destroyed entire units in a matter of minutes.
Ukraine being relatively flat will allow Russian tanks to maneuver easily breaking through Ukrainian defensive lines and out flanking them….. creating cauldrons.

MOSCOW (Reuters) – Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said on Thursday that any attempts to start a new military conflict in Ukraine’s war-torn east could end up destroying Ukraine, the TASS news agency reported.

Jihadi Colin

That is the whole point. Russia is being left with no alternative but to intervene, so that Bidet can close down NordStream II.

Jesus

Biden cannot close the NS2, the Germans need the gas and they are developing some spine to make independent decisions as a sovereign country.

erwin vercauteren

Ukranian army is in shambles addiction to amphetamines and alcohol deserting to Russia even their SF yeah Ukropistan is much stronger then 2014 😂😂 WHAT a joke man you are hilarious or just plain stupid to think in such way

Jihadi Colin

Yeah, because being a shambles means they’re not much stronger than the shambles they were in 2014.

I suggest you don’t apply for Mensa membership just yet.

Concrete Mike

The truth is somewhere in the middle, i suspect the nazi battalions got lots of new goodies, but the meat and potatoes of the ukro conscript army didnt get shit.
The keey to a russisa n victory is to crushthe shock nazi ibattalions

erwin vercauteren

Russia has dealt with fascist scum in the great patriotic war and this time they will do it again all those scumbags from AZOV will be eradicated AND I WILL APPLAUD THIS

Jihadi Colin

They should have done it in 2014 and it’s a sight too late to applaud now.

erwin vercauteren

there is something like geostrategy and Putin is the master by this way he made the world witness the hypocrisy and cowardice of US & UK INVOLVED IN THE COUP in Ukropistan and i will still applaud when Russia give them Georgia treatment and make them squeal like that idiot Geogian SUCKING HIS CRAVAT IN DIRECT ON TV LOL

Jihadi Colin

When Ukranazistan attacks the Donbass during NATO exercises in Ukranazistan, using the NATOstanis ashuman shields, if Putin finds the intestinal fortitude to do what he should have in 2014 and intervene, I’ll applaud him. Otherwise he’s going to be the one eating his tie.

erwin vercauteren

YOU LIVE IN AN ALTERNATIVE REALITY CALLED FANTASY AND HALLUCINATIONS REALLY KIDDO TAKE THE PILLS THEY’VE PRESCRIBED you

shylockracy

Do you doubt that US/EU/NATO terrorists spent at least 5 billion since the fall of the USSR to takeover Ukraine? You shouldn’t, they brough neonazi battalions hiring even ISraelis to launch a war in Donbass in 2014, and the Odessa massacre left no doubt whatsoever of their intentions.

Mayvbe Putin wanted to bide Russia’s time, avoid economic debacle and, more according to his character, business and partnership with French and German Zioterrorists, but it was always gonna end this way as long as Ukraine is so firmly under terrorist Ziocorporate alignment.

Diana Cornwell

None of that was in Russia’s national interest. Putin is a traitor who advances NATO’s interests instead.

It’s obvious to me. The Russians are happy with him.

What can I say?

Slav=Slave

Voldemort

against Independent Republics no. Its illegal

Rik Gussé

“First, the Ukronazis have moved a large force (infantry, armor, artillery, MLRS, etc.) close to the line of contact.”

How big is this force ?

thomas malthaus

“Things are going to move really fast now, […}”

Dare I say, like a missile with nuclear warheads? I fail to see how this conflict is restricted to Crimea and Ukraine.

HiaNd

One crappy US destroyer is just feeble US attempt to put pressure on Russia…
They forget obviously that Black sea is Russian pond and that ship there, nothing but sitting duck.

Diana Cornwell

NATO and the Ukrainians are more committed than you know. Russia is ruled by traitor-in-chief Putin — you know, your hero.

I feel sorry for the Russians of Donbass. Their fate is likely to be similar to, or worse than the one suffered by the Armenians in the Caucasus.

Unless Putin offers to let go of Donbass in return for being allowed to retain Crimea. Which will only amount to a ruse devised by our NATO officials and Putin behind closed doors.

Since no-one is being honest about any of it, the ultimate outcome is unpredictable.

My money is on the discovery (at last) that Putin is a traitor to mother Russia. But it’s too late even now.

Russians are in for a very rude awakening.

Garga

Good thing the lovely granma ignored me (it is an amusing story ended in sobbing and tears) but since I did no such thing, I can down-vote her usual xenophobic and Russia-bashing and Putin-hating trolling as much as I want, which is once! :D

I cannot confirm nor deny to have anything to do with her yesterday’s nervous breakdown and down-vote spree. If her downvoting hurt your feeling. blame someone else!

Phoron

Blinkered_Britoon.txt

Diana Cornwell

The last time you Russians got close to NATO forces in Syria/Iraq, you were slaughtered by the hundreds. The scene was so awful with so many mangled Russian corpses and the horribly wounded, Russian officers got sick at the sight.

What did Putin do?

He denied that any Russian soldiers had died in the incident, and thus lied by suggesting that the dead Russians were Wagner mercenaries so they could not be counted as Russian casualties.

What did Putin do for the Turks after the Turks murdered the Russian ambassador and Russian pilots before that? That’s right. You Russians are building nuclear power plants for Turkey, the second largest NATO army soon to be armed with nuclear weapons thanks to Putin.

If there ever was a nation of neurotic prostitutes…

Phoron

Cool story, bro

76 mm Super Rapid

The Moron…. Turks didnt murder any Russian ambassador,Cia did aka Gulen movement.Same goes for Russian su-24.
Are you so dumb(Yes you are!)to think that building nuclear power plants means Turkey will own nuclear weapons?😁😁 You spammed total worthless male bovine fecal matter(as usual).
ı have more luck polishing a steaming pile of s**t and selling it on ebay for $500 than convincing the dumb little lying butthurt troll of anything like you but this comment of yours was god level stupid ,ı could not resist. Ha!Now eat shit.You are obsessed with Turks and Putin. Your grand children(if you have,they are unlucky btw 😁😁)will tell to each other and to their friends about you like this :Just change the name of countries.
comment image

Diana Cornwell

The Russian ambassador was assassinated by a Turkish police officer in Turkey. Gulen was Erdogan’s best friend and mentor. Both men hold the exact same Islamist beliefs. They just can’t agree on who gets how much. Erdogan is on the PUBLIC RECORD having said he personally ordered the shooting down of the Russian jet, emphasizing he’d do it again if the opportunity presented itself. Therefore, you are lying: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Assassination_of_Andrei_Karlov

76 mm Super Rapid

The moron:your source is Wikipedia where every single person can edit info.Yes,erdo said he personally ordered because he can not expose that he was only pawn in that period.What did you expect him to say?Hey not me,Cia elements in Taf shot-down the su-24,dont blame me please,ı am only sitting in this presidental chair. Laughable.Didnt you see f-16’s bombed the hell out of parliament in Turkey.Doesnt this give you a clue that how they were powerful in Turkey?

Diana Cornwell

Liar.

Erdogan has no problem lying through his teeth and making 180 degree turns on EVERY subject.

Erdogan just abolished with a presidential decree the Istanbul Agreements concerning women’s rights — the very same agreement he defended and proposed to the world only a few years ago! He was first to sign it.

A liar and a hypocrite of Erdogan’s caliber has no qualms about lying about anything.

76 mm Super Rapid

The moron…these are the facts.Yes,erdogan is bloody liar but he is not dumb like you.Let me give you exclusive little secret:Andrey Karlov(Rıp) was assasinated because of unfortunate interview about Gulen movement in Russia at Hurriyet newspaper.He revealed publicly how Russian Fsb,Gru exposed the way of working,making networks in various countries. This is unacceptable in espionage world. The whole Aleppo cover story was for dummies like you and always finds buyer.

Diana Cornwell

So you dear “moron” are suggesting that Russians killed their own ambassador perhaps?

76 mm Super Rapid

Believe what you want moron.What ı said is pure fact,white like milk.So according to your futile logic if the killer is ethnically Turk,organisator of this act is Turkish state right?😁😁How do you function on daily basis?😆😆

daniel

My dear do you have connections with Kremling?

76 mm Super Rapid

This has nothing to do with Gremlin,sweet-heart.

AJ

They were mercenaries even the US acknowledged that, Russia would never have sent in its own troops with zero air cover thats just crazy

Diana Cornwell

Liar.

Wagner doesn’t act independently of Putin. Wagner is Putin’s unofficial army. How could Wagner be there without Putin’s acquiescence? If you consider them ordinary mercenaries; who but Putin could pay their salaries?

Tommy Jensen

They were special forces. But the paperwork were arranged to they legally were on vacations in Ukraine. What they do on their vacation is not Russia’s problem.
You may call it a technical detail, but its important not to lie.

Diana Cornwell

Lying about being on vacation in the middle of the desert in the war-torn Middle East next to a NATO base, is not lying according to this womanizing genius.

Got it.

AJ

Wagner are ex special forces & former Russian service members a bit like Blackwater in US, they are contractors going where the money is. Yes they have links to the Russian government as they are useful assets to carry out under the table operations. If they were attempting to take back oil fields then I would say the Syrian government were paying them

Tommy Jensen

Russia is alone. They cant fight the whole world of pussies and lapdogs.
If I were in Putin, Xi and Khamenei’s shoes, which I am not, I would open up another front in another place as a surprise surprise.

FlorianGeyer

The US is a prime target for a regime change civil war.
A war that could last for decades with a bit of luck :)

AJ

Armenia never had the latest Russian systems to begin with. I cant wait to see these magical NATO weapons if they exist.. As for Kiev they are so inept they cant even defeat small forces in the Donbass so forget about Russia

Band Itkoitko

All sounds good to me. We want them to be committed fully and 100%. NATO needs to fight for what they believe with full strength and determination. It can be totally wrong but if they believe it, they need to put themselves on the line. Thus, once they get destroyed, it will be clear that their ideology was not based on life but stained with death that caught up to them.

So let them go fully, let them not hide behind some miserable Ukrainians. Let the US directly in full defense of their human-created artificial morality come and impose it. I’m sorry, the rest don’t count, even Germany, and especially the so called UK. Where is the mighty army? Why is it so quiet and scared? Why doesn’t the US come and fight their war instead of only talking about it all the time?

Go for it!

Diana Cornwell

You don’t stand a chance because you refuse to see that Putin is a TRAITOR who is in bed with the powers behind NATO. Putin will never allow the Russian army to prevail.

What I’m curious about is, will you Russians still deny this even after Putin stabs in the back the Russians of Donbass and allows them to be genocided by the Ukrainians?

Band Itkoitko

Cut the old-age lonely drama! I’m saying this only because I somewhat respect your freedom to follow your western endeavors. I respect it sufficiently to think that it deserves attention even if only to rust and fall apart.

It’s ok if your opponents “don’t stand a chance”. It’s ok that you think this way. Simply go for it and don’t talk about it anymore, but act. If you think they have no chance, more so you should feel brave enough to do it. Show us that Putin is a “traitor” etc. Prove it to those people. Get them out of their “deceptions” with the cruelty of your “truth”. Go and “prevail” over this Russian army. Stop pushing the miserable Ukrainians, do it yourself in your “superior race”. Spill your own precious blood. Draw your own ugly faces in the mud of the battle field.

Jihadi Colin

Andrei “the Saker” Raevsky, the White Russian emogre grandson of a Nazi collaborator, is afraid of dissent on his site. He is also the self declared arbiter of whether Putin is good for Russia and whether anyone opposed to him is a “sixth columnist” or a dupe; and yet he does not even live in Russia, let alone the Donbass, about which he waxes loquacious. He’s a hypocrite and a moral coward.

AJ

Keeping trolls off his site is a good thing as they spam up the comments on serious discussion

Jihadi Colin

By what measure does a White Russian emigre grandson of a Nazi collaborator that’s too cowardly to live in Russia but pontificates on it decide who’s a “troll”?

AJ

Its his website so he gets to decide, there are other sites to go to if no one likes it. As for the Nazi slur he is not responsible for the actions of his grand father

Jihadi Colin

He is fully responsible for his own actions, and if he’s afraid of dissent he has no right to be not mocked for it. He also has no right to not be called a hypocritical coward for pontificating on what’s best for Russia, and the Donbass, when he’s too cowardly to go there. Apart from his Putin worship which has gone into the realms of religion, where to criticise Putin is blasphemy.

Concrete Mike

First of all its his site, he can do as he wishes.

Second of all, the purging of the covid topic was necessary.as it was overwhelming the comment section with…mostly subjective and irrelevant crap.

He has a family with children in Florida, thats why he is there.

The Saker’s peices are not always the best, but it beats the rags we have for media here in the west hands down.
Dont let the warmongers get you with their soft word, as they are spoken with a fork tongue.

Be THANKFUL for russian restraint, once that can of worms is opened you will wish it would have stayed shut.
The problem has always been the trans national western elite, NOT PUTIN.

Know your ennemy, instead of barking abiut putin when you dont even know what going on for real on the ground.

Patience is key, impatience gets your lads and lasses killed, for nothing!

Tommy Jensen

So its a good thing to censure everybody who refuse cow farts is our planets biggest problem??

AJ

If its your website you can control it however you like

su-34

Then make it a private place with a subscription, eventually paid for.
As long as you pretend to be a public place, also show some respect to your guests, as the guests should show respect to the host. Respect is a mutual thing.
When some clown discovers the little dictator hidden in him, he loses my respect, especially with supreme “arguments” like: “this is my place, I decide whats the truth is”.

HiaNd

your nice theory doesn’t work in real life, with armies of bots, paid trolls.
some supervision is more than necessary

su-34

Supervision to keep things civil is one thing, combating another opinion by censorship, just because you don’t approve, or dislike it, and you can put your fist in the other’s mouth without repercussions is completely another.
Ever wondered who supervises the supervisors?
It always starts like: “for the good of our children we must block this, and that site, etc.”, and then the blacklist conveniently extends to whatever opponent must be shut up by the powers that be.

HiaNd

“Ever wondered who supervises the supervisors?”
Lord of thee Vaccines, Master of the Life and Death Bill Gates…?! :)

su-34

I got censored by one of his goons for writing in CAPS an acronym – speaking of “low IQ trolls”… I have serious doubts about his own IQ, when he surrounds himself with such idiots as “moderators”. This doubt is further enforced by such cretin censorship like the new “rule” for covid “deniers”. Probably he never heard of Voltaire’s “I disapprove of what you say, but I will defend to the death your right to say it”. Censorship is the last refuge of ignorance, and stupidity.
I have some experience with intelligent people who lived too long in pindostan. They came back completely dumbed down with pindo propaganda, and are unable to use their brains any more for critical thinking. The idiot tube has similar effects.

verner

will be better if you just stfu and mind your own silly business, no doubt dead boring as well.

HiaNd

voice of reason

Jihadi Colin

Try making me. Go ahead.

shylockracy

The terrorist Ziocorporate globalists of EU/NATO and, especially, the US/UK terrorists know quite well that they can take advatage of Putin’s pro-Zioterrorist/business strategic position to develop Russia.

Yesterday’s Kremlin statement that NATO troop deployment to support the Zionazi coup Kiev regime, with which Russian also seeks “business and partnership”, and its neonazi battalions would be a “provocation” made it clear that Kiev’s gonna keep receiving more “assistance” from NATO terrorists to continue their onslaught, so the people of Donbass can keep on dying for Putin to negotiate with France/Germany.

For Moscow it is somehow “right” for a coup terrorist Zionazi Kiev regime installed by NATO to kill Donbass people, as long as they don’t bring more than a few NATO advisors to the frontline to oversee the massacre.

John Tosh

Ultimately, the USA gets Nuked. Nothing changes this timeline…. nothing changes this outcome.

The eastern region of the USA will be damaged from a nuclear explosion in the ocean. Georgia, Florida, the Carolinas will be gone (I lived in all these cities to take in the beauty before it is gone for ever).

California and the Western region of the USA will be invaded by foreign troops.

The USA will cease to exist.

April 3rd, 2021

Diana Cornwell

More like April 1st.

John Tosh

I hope I am wrong. But I am rarely wrong with things like this.

The USA will cease to exist.

Diana Cornwell

What else have you been right about?

John Tosh

you go check all my writings.
Covid will not hurt China it will hurt the USA more. I was right

The USA will be nuked. It will cease to exist.

Diana Cornwell

So you claimed China will not be hurt by that. OK, thanks.

John Tosh

China will grow stronger as a result of Covid. It’s medical research was underestimating itself. With Covid comes the realization the USA is all about hype in medical research. Chinese research decoded the DNA of the virus in a few days to weeks and wrote protocols for treatment. Now has an effective vaccine much better than anything out of the USA.

Yes Covid will have the opposite effect on China.

Diana Cornwell

The Chinese vaccine is superior then? I’ve seen reports it’s only 50 percent effective. False you say? What do you think of AstraZeneca, Biontech, etc? I’m afraid to introduce anything gene altering into my body. Thanks in advance.

John Tosh

The Chinese vaccine does not cause blood clots!!!!
Why worry about blood clots? Stroke, Myocardial infarction!

One would rather have a 50% effective vaccine without blood clots than a 79% effective vaccine with blood clots

Do you understand now???

Diana Cornwell

Yes. It seems we will be required to get one of the others in the West in order to be allowed to travel, which is a bummer. I don’t like the DNA-altering features of the western vaccines.

John Tosh

It does not bother me either way. However this will come back to hunt the USA in the future. Forcing citizens to be injected is so lame the USA is becoming a banana republic.

HiaNd

“Russia Warns NATO Against Sending Any Troops To Ukraine As “Frightening” Escalation Looms”

Russia has vowed it will take “extra measures to ensure its own security” should it observe any deployment of NATO troops inside Ukraine,

Reuters reports….
Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told reporters on Friday that the situation at the contact line in eastern Ukraine between Ukrainian government forces and Russian-backed separatist forces was quite frightening and that multiple “provocations” were taking place there.
U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin on Thursday spoke with his Ukrainian counterpart, Andrii Taran, and “condemned recent escalations of Russian aggressive and provocative actions in eastern Ukraine,” the Pentagon said.

….US European Command (EUCOM) issued a notification of a raised ‘threat level’ in Europe. The designation is currently officially raised to one of “potential imminent crisis” due to concerns over Eastern Ukraine.
Meanwhile intense shelling on the ground in Donetsk has continued this week, with all signs pointing to further escalation and intensity in fighting…
https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/frightening-escalation-looms-russia-warns-nato-against-sending-any-troops-ukraine

HB_Norica

Russia has a strong defensive position.

Crimea is safe. Just how does the Ukraine retake it? Frontal assault across a mile wide isthmus? Amphibious assault without a navy?

Russia can choose whether or not the assist in defending the Donbass. It’s up to them. It’s not their territory to defend. They could easily allow the Ukraine to retake it with force then support an insurgency that sucks the Ukraine dry or they could choose to use their standoff weapons to decimate the Ukraines spearhead and supply lines and dare NATO to retaliate.

Do you think Germany would risk losing Berlin to help the Ukraine retake Donetsk when the people of Donetsk don’t even want to be Ukrainian?

It’s pretty clear the major objective of the USA’s support of this provocation is to axe Nord stream 2 so as the Ukraine doesn’t become a failed state and they can sell Europe very expensive shale gas. It’s going to take a lot to get the likes of France and Germany to risk nuclear war to kill a project that benefits them greatly and it’s not like the USA is the most trustworthy “partner” these day …. they could be stabbed in the back next election cycle.

Diana Cornwell

Another Putin apologist.

If Putin allows Ukraine to retake Donbass, the native Russians will be tortured to death and the breakaway republics will be ethnically cleansed of any Russian population.

No insurgency is possible in the absence of insurgents.

Just like in Anatolia and Armenian Karabakh.

Let’s see if Russians will still deny that Putin is a traitor after Russians themselves are genocided this time.

HB_Norica

“Another Putin apologist.”

In order to be an apologist I first have to accept that he has something to apologise for. In my opinion he has consistently acted in the best interests of Russia … best Russian leader since Peter the Great.

“If Putin allows Ukraine to retake Donbass, the native Russians will be tortured to death and the breakaway republics will be ethnically cleansed of any Russian population.”

In other words the entire population of Novorossiya. So what … do you envision US funded death camps or are they going to do it the old fashion way by herding women and children into churches and torching them. Like that’ll fit with the US narrative of poor cookie eating democrats simply yearning for freedom from Russian oppression won’t it?

You really should check your meds or get a hobby …. I hear some crazy ladies like collecting cats.

Diana Cornwell

The Ukrainians had even uploaded videos to YouTube of Russian men they first crucified then burned alive. I saw those.

You make me sick.

Lone Ranger

Sounds like ukropnazis = isis

HB_Norica

So you go online searching that kind of shit out or does it just appear in your inbox? Pedophilia not hard core enough for you?

“You make me sick.”

I can understand someone who believes the US / western propaganda that the Ukrainian regime is peace loving and democratic … with values in harmony with US and EU values but you claim to know about Ukrainian atrocities and still support the regime …. and you call ME sick? get help.

Diana Cornwell

You’re lying.

I am critical of Putin for betraying Russia’s allies and Russia herself, and selling out to Muslim terrorists.

Diana Cornwell

It was in a link embedded in an article I read.

You are a man of such good faith.

Garga

A group of criminals committed horrific crimes, yet our resident troll mommy is not sick of them, she’s sick of another, unrelated person.

I suspected that you love me too much to ignore me… :D Not “love” love, more like a motherly love or something.

Lone Ranger

FU LSD nazi…

HiaNd

“It’s not their territory to defend. “

Maybe it is not “their territory” but those 400 000 Russians there, are Russian citizens!
They can’t “choose whether or not the assist” . They MUST assist those people if in danger, according to Russian law.

HB_Norica

Are you sure they are Russian citizens?

In 2019 Putin said he was CONSIDERING offering Russian citizenship to all Ukrainians butI can’t find anything saying he followed through on that

In 2014 citizens in Crimea became Russian citizens and were issued Russian passports but to my knowledge that hasn’t been extended to Novorossiya.

If you have other information please post it.

HiaNd

well, you followed badly…
Of course I am sure.
The procedure to access Russian citizenship for people from Ukraine has been facilitated on every level and much more simple. So that they can have easy and fast access to citizenship ( to avoid humanitarian crisis )

“Crimea ……that hasn’t been extended to Novorossiya.”
It couldn’t possibly be “extended to Novorossiya” since events in Novorossiya have happened later. Those 2 are not comparable events anyways, since Crimea is integral part of Russia and Donbass is in Ukraine.

I can’t be bothered to to look for that information… and I can’t believe to be only person to know those facts since it was all over the Russian news.
Just ask any Russian here.

HB_Norica

“It couldn’t possibly be “extended to Novorossiya” since events in Novorossiya have happened later. Those 2 are not comparable events anyways, since Crimea is integral part of Russia and Donbass is in Ukraine.”

what I said was Putin gave Russian citizenship to Crimeans in 2014 then went on to say Putin suggested he might offer the same to all Ukrainians in 2019.

I haven’t seen anything that says the Russia in fact acted on extending citizenship to all Ukrainians in fact it sounded to me like Putin was trolling Zelensky.

HiaNd

“Putin gave Russian citizenship to Crimeans ”
No he didn’t “give” them…
By becoming integral part of Russia (again) Crimean’s were all automatically Russian citizens without making formal demand for citizenship.

” then went on to say Putin suggested he might offer the same to all Ukrainians in 2019.”

It is NOT the same situation!!!
Ethnic Russians in Donbass are IN UKRAINE while Crimean’s are IN RUSSIA!

HERE one article on subject:
Russia Simplifies Citizenship Procedure For Ukrainian Permanent Residents

President Vladimir Putin signed the relevant law on April 24 and it entered into force on Friday, the Ukrainian News Agency reports.
According to Russian law, citizens of Ukraine and Belarus who are fluent in Russian can be recognized by a special commission as native Russian speakers based solely on their application and without the need for an interview if they or their relatives permanently reside or have previously permanently resided in Russia or territories that were part of the Russian empire or the former USSR ….

According to Russian law, citizens of Ukraine and Belarus who are fluent in Russian can be recognized by a special commission as native Russian speakers based solely on their application and without the need for an interview if they or their relatives permanently reside or have previously permanently resided in Russia or territories that were part of the Russian empire or the former USSR
https://ukranews.com/en/news/716544-russia-simplifies-citizenship-procedure-for-ukrainian-permanent-residents
—–
Nov please leave me alone, thank you!

Garry Compton

Yes, Prez. Zelinsky was said to sign a Declaration of War on Crimea and Russia on the 24th. Russia TV and Global Research today has an article on it .

Rhodium 10

There are no chance to retake Donbass…almost all the population are Russian citizens and in case of full total war many Russian civilians will die in Donbass!…. therefore Russian armed forces have been preparing for this scenario…and have in combat readiness 20 TU 95M with 400 KH 55 ready to destroy the infraestructure of Ukraine…include Gas Hub, Petrol facilities, Power Stations, HQ armed forces, SBU HQ, State Buildings, Brigdes, Railways, TV stations…and after that the armed forces of Ukraine close to Donbass….a level of destruction that makes impossible for Ukraine to continue the war.

Band Itkoitko

This seems so weird. The UA’s puppet masters started pushing the war narrative now, while they are weeks away from being able to execute any effective massive military attack. Why did they start with the drama so early if their goal was a military victory? Wouldn’t it be more practical to keep it low key until they actually are ready to attack?

I’m against war in principle, but we need to face life and grow up. This will go on until between Russia and the US remains only one standing. Coexistence is impossible. There’s full moral and ideological incompatibility. This with high likelihood will lead to a direct clash between Russia and the US at some point. This proxy war interaction and pushing some weak minions is getting old and doesn’t provide resolution.

This is really the logic of human experience and we cannot do anything about it. The west is building for more than a millennium a separate morality and as everything it cannot be legitimate until it matures and gets tested against reality. Trials are needed for anything to get established.

Russians may not like it and may be willing to throw away that cross, but they cannot and it falls on them to be the ones trialed and tested against western delusional ideologies. Russia either has to give up everything they believe in or bear witness to the truth and fight when it becomes inevitable. Let’s not forget that martyrs were witnesses of the truth (not all but many).

This is something one cannot deny looking at history and human experience. When the west felt powerful under Napoleon, they went and tested that against the East, and lost. When they collected their powers again during the Nazis, they did the same, etc.

Now, they are collecting their “strengths” under vile and sodomic delusions named “democratic values”. They will need to test it and guess against who.

How and when this is going to develop, I don’t know. But have no illusions it will be avoided. Consider it written in stone. We are fighting only for a delay. Putin has been elected and mandated with that task by the Russian nation – to prepare for that and delay it as much as possible.

Diana Cornwell

Putin=Biden

Their only purpose is to kill as many people as possible to sustain the highest rate of profit possible for the bankers and the international MIC.

Diana Cornwell

Putin=Biden

Their only purpose is to kill as many people as possible to sustain the highest rate of profits possible for the bankers and the international MIC.

Band Itkoitko

We’ve heard that broken record. Putin and Biden are from two different planets.

Aleks Noir

The situation is certainly getting more complicated. There are multiple complex consideration.

1. The plan of the Ukrainian forces is unclear at this time, with degrees in variance that will likely correspond to differences in Russian approach.

A. A siege of Crimea and siege of Donetsk Republicans could simply continue with increase of force without a significant increase in large scale military activities.

B. A continued siege of Crimea, with a significant escalation in Novorossiya region.

a. Possible escalation of bombardment, artillery strikes, sabotage operations, without a significant territorial incursions. Likely response is further escalation of artillery duels from within the republics

b. significant incursion and territorial denial to novorossiay forces, likely to achieve initial gains, quickly stall and suffer set backs in counter attacks

c. full out war with intention of completely and totally obliterating Novorossiya, and restoring pre Maidan eastern Ukrainian control over the territory. Likely response is complete or incomplete Russian involvement, resulting in significant casualties among Novorossiya residents, troops as well as heavy Ukrainian casulties. It is unclear whether the russian intervention would end in Novorossiya, or extend to southern Ukraine, possibly involving capture of Mariupol ,Dneptropetrovsk, Odessa, reducing Ukraine to a land locked nation, or possibly total capture of ukraine, and replacement of the hostile state with a puppet government.

C. A broad assault on Crimea and Novorossiya simultaneously, under the pretext of restoring the territorial integrity of ukraine to pre maidan borders. Such an assault would likely lead to a broad regional war and could quickly involve regional players including NATO, Turkey, USA, and possibly pull in other international players.

D. a de-escalation as a result of compromises via channels in Germany and other players.

Despite the broad consensus of the inevitable success of Russia, or Ukraine, the outcome of the conflict is extremely difficult to predict.

Lone Ranger

Ukropnazis will fail as usual.
I cant wait for Russia moving till the Dnepr river liberating that hellhole.
Poletards, banderascums and baltic nazis will cry and rage 🤗

D Ferguson

The US will fight as long as the Ukrainians are willing to die.

Duck

Just as Russia sold Alaska, for extremely dubious reasons, it also voluntarily dismantled USSR. It recognized the borders of the new states while their independence implied the freedom to chose their political system, allies, affiliations etc. The fact that the Russia’s ignorant and incompetent leadership didn’t really understand what it was doing and what possible nightmares might ensue is not anybody’s problem but Russia’s. Therefore the Crimea “reunification” is absolutely illegal just as is the rebellion in Donbas or inside Georgia. According to international law every sovereign government, including one in Kiev, has the right to use all necessary means to uphold its jurisdiction over the entirety of its territory. Supposedly and verbally, Russia is the champion of international law. So, if uncle Vlad has the right to meddle and support Dombas so does uncle Joe have the right to support Kiev. Actually he has even more right to do so because he is supporting the legal government of Ukraine and, at least in principle, he is supporting international law. Therefore, if Russia supported Azerbaijan and undertook upon itself to repatriate to it most of the Nagorno-Karabakh, and if Russia stealthily supported and encouraged the ethnic cleansing of the Serbs and “unification” of their lands like Krajina with Croatia, then, Russia should be true to its proclamations and principles and it should return Crimea and Donbas to Ukraine. This means that any possible wider war over Ukraine will squarely and justifiably be blamed on Russia.

Duck

So, my former Russian friends and brothers here at Southfront, it seems that you have a hard time handling even a very low dose of truth. Honestly, it is not my problem but yours. I wonder if you really think that everyone who comes to this blog is a dumbass? So, I’ll try again, and you, in good old soviet tradition, just block it (again):
Just as Russia sold Alaska, for extremely dubious reasons, it also
voluntarily dismantled USSR. It recognized the borders of the new states
while their independence implied the freedom to chose their political
system, allies, affiliations etc. The fact that the Russia’s ignorant
and incompetent leadership didn’t really understand what it was doing
and what possible nightmares might ensue is not anybody’s problem but
Russia’s. Therefore the Crimea “reunification” is absolutely illegal
just as is the rebellion in Donbas or inside Georgia. According to
international law every sovereign government, including one in Kiev, has
the right to use all necessary means to uphold its jurisdiction over
the entirety of its territory. Supposedly and verbally, Russia is the
champion of international law. So, if uncle Vlad has the right to meddle
and support Dombas so does uncle Joe have the right to support Kiev.
Actually he has even more right to do so because he is supporting the
legal government of Ukraine and, at least in principle, he is supporting
international law. Therefore, if Russia supported Azerbaijan and
undertook upon itself to repatriate to it most of the Nagorno-Karabakh,
and if Russia stealthily supported and encouraged the ethnic cleansing
of the Serbs and “unification” of their lands like Krajina with Croatia,
then, Russia should be true to its proclamations and principles and it
should return Crimea and Donbas to Ukraine. This means that any possible
wider war over Ukraine will squarely and justifiably be blamed on
Russia.

chris chuba

Ossetia disputed Georgia’s claim in 1992 as did Crimea with Ukraine in 1994 when it held a referendum. How were the borders of Ukraine established? Ukraine said, ‘Crimea is a province, ergo, it comes with us’. It was disputed from the beginning by the Crimeans.

You have a better argument w/Eastern Ukraine and Putin agreed to a framework to reincorporate it to Kiev. It was Kiev that refused the follow the Minsk accords because it was to Petroshenko’s advantage to keep the conflict going. It was toxic to Putin. He had nothing to gain.

In short … you are wrong about Ossetia, Crimea, correct about eastern Ukraine but if Kiev does not follow Minsk agreement they will forfeit their claim.

HiaNd

“It was toxic to Putin. He had nothing to gain”
If Donbass reintegrated as autonomous region or republic (Minsk agreement) Putin has to gain permanent opposition of Donbass to Ukraine becoming NATO member.
That is why (apart from federalization of Ukraine ) that option is not acceptable for Ukraine.

chris chuba

Why would Kiev risk a land attack when they could just bring up every heavy artillery piece they have and shell eastern Ukraine and use their own cities as human shields?

Ma_Laoshi

If this really is a crisis of the claimed seriousness and not just, say, Ukrainians being Ukrainians, then why isn’t the response commensurate? Do I have it right that Russia is still the largest foreign investor in Ukraine? If these reports are true, then the time to cut off energy supplies, banking services, etc, was yesterday–that is, if your objective is to communicate to Kiev “Don’t even think about it” and by doing so, prevent a war. Plunging the Ukies in the dark may look harsh and Biden will look at you funny, but if the alternative is large-scale slaughter then you’d be doing the right thing.

Whatever else you may think of them, the might of NATO is nothing like Azerbaijan: warning of “grave consequences” and expressing “disappointment” does not deter them. Russia has experience with this by now. Yes the West looks deranged the way it recites “Putin, Putin, Putin”, but chanting your own mantra “Time is on Russia’s side” doesn’t look much smarter if that “time” isn’t used effectively.

Concrete Mike

Meh i have no problems with the ukro nazi battalions crawl out of their caves. They are the ones russia needs to destroy. Making all the other ukro ivan pay for the nazis.is not fair.

Kill the banderists first, as they will cockblock ANY peace chance.

Once they are destroyed, the reste will turn on them.

163
0
Would love your thoughts, please comment.x
()
x