0 $
2,350 $
4,700 $
1,562 $
COLLECTED IN DECEMBER

The Next Economic Crisis and the Looming Post-Multipolar System

Donate

The Next Economic Crisis and the Looming Post-Multipolar System

Written by J.Hawk exclusively for SouthFront

The Impending Crisis

At one time, specifically during the post-World War 2 Bretton Woods era, it looked like as if the capitalist model could be indefinitely sustainable and avoid plunging the world into major world conflicts. That era began to come to an end during the stagflation crisis of the 1970s, and came to a complete end at the end of the Cold War which ushered in the era of the so-called “globalization” which took form of unbridled competition for markets and resources. At first this competition did not show many signs of trouble. There were many “emerging markets” created as a result of the collapse of the Soviet bloc into which Western corporations could expand. However, the law of diminishing returns being what it is, the initial rapid economic growth rates could not be sustained and attempts to goose it using extremely liberal central bank policies, to the point of zero and even negative interest rates, succeeded in inflating—and bursting—several financial “bubbles”. Even today’s US economy bears many hallmarks of such a bubble, and it is only one of many. Sooner or later the proverbial “black swan” event will unleash a veritable domino effect of popping bubbles and plunge the global economy into a crisis of a magnitude it has not seen since the 1930s. A crisis against which the leading world powers have few weapons to deploy, since they have expended their monetary and fiscal “firepower” on the 2008 crisis, to little avail. The low interest rates and high levels of national debt mean that the next big crisis will not be simply “more of the same.” It will fundamentally rearrange the global economy.

The Once and Future Multipolar System?

While the 1944 Bretton Woods  conference sought to re-establish a global economic order that was destroyed in the Great Depression, the formation of the United Nations served a rather different aim. The UN Security Council, with five veto-wielding permanent members, meant that for as long as these five countries abided by its rules, there would be five spheres of influence and therefore also five relatively exclusive economic zones. British leaders in 1945, for example, hardly desired the dissolution of their empire; records of wartime discussions between FDR and Churchill show the two clashed repeatedly over the tariff barriers separating British colonial possessions from international trade.  That which became known as the “Iron Curtain” was a feature, not a bug, of that system—Churchill himself wanted one for his empire, after all. However, is the apparent multi-polar system of today any more viable than the one which appeared to emerge after 1945?

“We have always been at war with Eurasia”

The post-WW2 multipolar world did not come to pass because the French and British empires collapsed and its newly independent states became aligned with either the United States or the USSR, and the PRC was in no shape to exert much power outside of its own borders since it was recovering from decades of civil war and foreign occupation. Seven decades after WW2’s conclusion, however, one can readily see that the era of US and European economic dominance is giving way to a multipolar world in which Russia and China are once again capable of standing up for their economic interests.

However, a return to genuine multipolarity does not appear very likely. Russia and China need each other too much to risk conflict by pursuing their own separate and mutually exclusive economic spheres of influence. Rather, we can expect a gradual merger of the two, with Russia playing the leading role in certain geographical areas (for example, the Middle East and the Arctic), while China in others. When it comes to the US and the EU, the situation is slightly more complicated.

Welcome to Oceania, Citizen

While George Orwell imagined the future of Russia (Eurasia) and China (Eastasia) as imperial entities unintegrated with one another, a prediction that does not appear to be coming true, the establishment of Oceania, governed from the United States and UK playing the role of “Airstrip One” seems to be looming every closer. Only the status of Europe remains unclear at this point. The European Union is still unfit to shoulder world power responsibilities, it has barely weathered the last economic crisis, and the next one could easily be the final nail in its coffin. It certainly does not help that the United States is attempting to thoroughly economically dominate the European Union in order to deal with its own economic problems. Reducing European exports to the US and expanding US energy exports to the EU is very high on the list of White House priorities, to the point of risking trade war. Europe’s behavior following the US unilateral JCPOA withdrawal shows that the Europeans are incapable to oppose US power, even if it means defending important economic interests.

On the other hand, and in response to the Trump administration increasingly brazen attempts to subjugate Europe in political and economic terms,  France and Germany are pursuing efforts to establish a solid EU “core”. This “core” would boast a European army, a concept whose popularity has grown in recent years, and be capable of collective action in the event of a crisis even if it means shedding the less well integrated eastern and southern EU members or at least relegating them to second-class status. However, it remains to be seen whether anything viable can be created before the next crisis topples the European house of cards and leads to power struggles over the political and economic alignment of the individual European states.

Hybrid War Forever

Once that process of coalescence is complete, proxy wars will continue over certain parts of Europe, Africa, Asia, even Latin America, as the two power blocs will struggle over vital markets and resources, using the full array of military, political, economic, cyber, and information weapons that we have seen used in Libya, Ukraine, Yemen, Syria, and Venezuela. This hybrid warfare will be accompanied by a level of official propaganda that will make the current “Russiagate” reporting pale in comparison, however, at the same time, the rhetoric will be considerably more heated than the actual level of hostilities between the two nuclear weapons-wielding power blocs. Instead, that propaganda will be used to justify internal political censorship and repression, on a scale even greater than we have seen used against the Yellow Vests protests in France.  Deprived of the ability to expand into ever new territories, the West will gradually sink into stagnation , poverty, and domestic disorder. At that point, the world will be in a state of a genuine bi-polar Cold War, a war of political and economic attrition whose outcome is currently impossible to predict.

Donate

SouthFront

Do you like this content? Consider helping us!

  • Jens Holm

    There was no stagflation in the 1970s, but a regreation which found a more realistic level.

    I dont bother reading the rest. I already know the language as well as its conclusions.

    • Sinbad2

      What’s a regreation?

      • Jens Holm

        So sorry. I meant only some inflation some some lowered production, which gives a balance – even negative.

        Stagflation to my knowledge is inflation with no growth

        • Sinbad2

          Yes there was stagflation, which is low growth high unemployment and high inflation. In 1971, U.S. stagflation prompted the United Kingdom to redeem most of its U.S. dollars for gold. President Nixon took the dollar off the gold standard to protect the remaining gold reserves. As a result, the value of the dollar plummeted.

          It’s caused by printing money, without growth, just like the USA today.

          https://www.thebalance.com/what-is-stagflation-3305964

          • Tommy Jensen

            What do you mean?
            The amount of pink Nike shoes, Iphones I, II, III, IV, V and the amount and activity of Facebook members, and surveillance organisations and equipment had a tremendous growth under Obamas 8 years doubling of US public debt.

          • Sinbad2

            People think that inflation is normal?
            The only inflation that existed before fiat currency, was when the Spanish were pillaging Latin America and bringing lots of gold to Europe. That caused a 1.5% inflation rate and caused an event called the “price revolution”.
            Imagine a world where the price of a house or land didn’t go up or down.

      • Boris Kazlov

        Jens Holm is a crypto-nazi who believes in the eternal beatitude of the USA, and the demon Russia.
        He lives just next to the lunatic asylum, screams shit here now and then.

  • Sinbad2

    “it looked like as if the capitalist model could be indefinitely sustainable”

    How can a pyramid scheme be indefinitely sustainable?
    The coming crash is unavoidable, like all pyramid schemes you eventually run out of suckers to fleece.

    • FlorianGeyer

      It works on the US Treasury computer model.

      The computer nerd who wrote the programme had just finished a 21st century video game version of ‘Ali Barba and the Forty Thieves’, called ‘Nutty Yahu and the Six Million Thieves’.

      It’s got a green tag to it as well. ‘Sustainable Looting’.

    • paul ( original )

      The thing about a pyramid is that they are not easy to topple over. The bigger the base the less easy it is. On the other hand the higher you build them the more pressure is put on parts of the base which becomes increasingly crushed down. Well that’s what its like with structural pyramids. But may be for us too, those at the bottom, that is what awaits us. More and more we will be crushed down. The top may sink but it will still be the top.

    • PHOENIX139

      The Private Moneylender concept (private banking) is a stupid self-defeating concept that is based on private moneylenders lending their own ‘bank money’ to a stupid society that doesn’t realize they are SOVEREIGN and can create all their national currency they need to represent their own productivity. Private moneylenders create a finite pool of ‘bank money’ (looks like REAL national currency to keep people from getting wise to the banker’s game) for borrowers, who then take it for business and personal purposes. But ‘bank money’ is demanded to be returned to the bank. This creates a situation where nearly every stupid business and citizen is using borrowed capital. The result is a society using borrowed capital competing with each other to gain the borrowed capital of the other guy in order to make a profit and survive. Those who attract the public’s income (which is nothing more than the busniess owner’s borrowed capital paid as wages) survive – those who don’t attract the public’s income default and lose their business assets to the bankers. This concept eventually fails because there isn’t enough capital created for every borrower to earn a profit. This was proven to the stupid public when ALL the private moneylenders ran to their govt’s for a bail-out with sovereign currency (the REAL currency) – and yet the stupid public remains oblivious to the fact that their sovereign society can create their own currency without ANY private moneylender.

  • ©igare☘☘e👽Sm⚽️k🚬ng🦉Man️🎲

    American companies financed Hitl3r’s Germany in WW2.
    The Americans didnt bomb specific factories in Germany even though they were producing war equipment.

    [Imgur](https://i.imgur.com/4G0iNtM.jpg)

    https://youtu.be/hG7lG0ggHck?t=205

    [Imgur](https://i.imgur.com/NudQSUT.png)

    • Sinbad2

      After the war,GM the owner of Opel, successfully sued the US government for $32 million in
      damages sustained to its German plants (Ford Motor Company also demanded compensation from the U.S. government for “losses” due to bomb damage to its German subsidiary.

      https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Strategic_Bombing_Survey

      • Brother Ma

        If I read that a corporate -Ford- was paid out I will scream. Paying out corporates at a time citizens lost alnost everyrhing is criminal.

        • Sinbad2

          It’s capitalism baby.

  • RichardD

    My view is that the core problem with the US and EU is Jews, the US in particular. Though Europe has been the primary host for this cancer and curse against our planet and humanity for many centuries. The place to start with creating a better future is with the dejudification of the US, EU and Palestine. By outlawing this evil cult and criminal organization. Making the practice of Judaism illegal worldwide, and closing the synagogues and yeshivas so that they go extinct and the planet is Jew free.

    • Sinbad2

      The core problem is the economic system, capitalism, which is a Jewish system.
      As long as capital(money) is of a higher worth that that of a man and his labour money inevitably moves from people to the banks. When the banks have all the money, and the people none, the system collapses. It has happened many times in the past and is about to happen again.

      Labor is prior to, and independent of, capital. Capital is only the fruit of labor, and could never have existed if labor had not first existed. Labor is the superior of capital, and deserves much the higher consideration.(Abraham Lincoln)

      • RichardD

        Everybody uses a similar financial system. The problem is the governments and financial systems infested with Jews.

  • peter mcloughlin

    We are in a pre-world war environment. The Cold War (which was the peace) was a post-world war environment. The world has experienced periods of peace (or relative peace) throughout history. The Thirty Years Peace between the two Peloponnesian Wars, Pax Romana, Europe in the 19th century after the Congress of Vienna, to name a few. The Congress System finally collapsed in 1914 with the start of World War One. That conflict was followed by the League of Nations. It did not stop World War Two. That was followed by the United Nations and other post-war institutions. But all the indications are they will not prevent a third world war.
    https://www.ghostsofhistory.wordpress.com/

  • Aquilegia

    In the FIAT economic system debt growth is a necessity. The western societies are economically mature, societies are corrupted, weakened with bad policies, unhealthy birth trends due to weakening traditional family and failed mass integration policies of third world foreigners. This system requires new and young, potent economies to be absorbed in order to survive. When there is no more new and potent economies to add, the system starts eating itself alive.

  • Sinbad2

    “Gold is money, everything else is credit”(JP Morgan)
    People would be wise to remember that BEFORE the next financial crisis.