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The Geography of War: No Iraq…? No Iran!

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Written by Brett Redmayne-Titley; Originally appeared at Global Research

No other country in the Middle East is as important in countering America’s rush to provide Israel with another war than Iraq. Fortunately for Iran, the winds of change in Iraq and the many other local countries under similar threat, thus, make up an unbroken chain of border to border support. This support is only in part due to sympathy for Iran and its plight against the latest bluster by the Zio-American bully.

The Geography of War: No Iraq…? No Iran!

In the politics of the Middle East, however, money is at the heart of all matters. As such, this ring of defensive nations is collectively and quickly shifting towards the new Russo/ Sino sphere of economic influence. These countries now form a geo-political defensive perimeter that, with Iraq entering the fold, make a US ground war virtually impossible and an air war very restricted in opportunity.

If Iraq holds, there will be no war in Iran.

In the last two months, Iraq parliamentarians have been exceptionally vocal in their calls for all foreign military forces- particularly US forces- to leave immediately.Politicians from both blocs of Iraq’s divided parliament called for a vote to expel US troops and promised to schedule an extraordinary session to debate the matter.

“Parliament must clearly and urgently express its view about the ongoing American violations of Iraqi sovereignty,” said Salam al-Shimiri, a lawmaker loyal to the populist cleric Moqtada al-Sadr.

The Geography of War: No Iraq…? No Iran!

Iraq’s ambassador to Moscow, Haidar Mansour Hadi, went further saying that Iraq “does not want a new devastating war in the region.” He told a press conference in Moscow this past week,

“Iraq is a sovereign nation. We will not let [the US] use our territory,” he said.

Other comments by Iraqi Prime Minister Adil Abdul-Mahdi agreed. Other MPs called for a timetable for complete US troop withdrawal.

Then a motion was introduced demanding war reparations from the US and Israel for using internationally banned weapons while destroying Iraq for seventeen years and somehow failing to find those “weapons of mass destruction.”

As Iraq/ Iran economic ties continue to strengthen, with Iraq recently signing on for billions of cubic meters of Iranian natural gas, the shift towards Russian influence- an influence that prefers peace- was certified as Iraq sent a delegation to Moscow to negotiate the purchase of the Russian S-400 air defense system

To this massive show of pending democracy and rapidly rising Iraqi nationalism, US Army spokesman, Colonel Ryan Dillon, provided the kind of delusion only the Zio-American military is known for, saying,

“Our continued presence in Iraq will be conditions-based, proportional to need, in coordination with and by the approval of the Iraqi government.”

Good luck with that.

US influence in Iraq came to a possible conclusion this past Saturday, May 18, 2019, when it was reported that the Iraqi parliament would vote on a bill compelling the invaders to leave. Speaking about the vote on the draft bill, Karim Alivi, a member of the Iraqi parliament’s national security and defense committee, said on Thursday that the country’s two biggest parliamentary factions — the Sairoon bloc, led by Shia cleric Muqtada al-Sadr, and the Fatah alliance, headed by secretary general of the Badr Organization, Hadi al-Ameri — supported the bill.Strangely, Saturday’s result has not made it to the media as yet, and American meddling would be a safe guess as to the delay, but the fact that this bill would certainly have passed strongly shows that Iraq well understands the weakness of the American bully: Iraq’s own US militarily imposed democracy.

Iraq shares a common border with Iran that the US must have for any ground war. Both countries also share a similar religious demographic where Shia is predominant and the plurality of cultures substantially similar and previously living in harmony. Both also share a very deep seeded and deserved hatred of Zio- America. Muqtada al-Sadr, who, after coming out first in the 2018 Iraqi elections, is similar to Hizbullah’s Hassan Nasrallah in his religious and military influence within the well trained and various Shia militias. He is firmly aligned with Iran as is Fattah Alliance. Both detest Zio- America.

A ground invasion needs a common and safe border. Without Iraq, this strategic problem for US forces becomes complete. The other countries also with borders with Iran are Armenia, Azerbaijan, Turkmenistan, Turkey, Afghanistan and Pakistan. All have several good reasons that they will not, or cannot, be used for ground forces.

With former Armenian President Robert Kocharian under arrest in the aftermath of the massive anti-government 2018 protests, Bolton can check that one off the list first. Azerbaijan is mere months behind the example next door in Armenia, with protests increasing and indicating a change towards eastern winds. Regardless, Azerbaijan, like Turkmenistan, is an oil producing nation and as such is firmly aligned economically with Russia. Political allegiance seems obvious since US influence is limited in all three countries to blindly ignoring the massive additional corruption and human rights violations by Presidents Ilham Aliyev  and Gurbanguly Berdimuhamedow.

However, Russian economic influence pays in cash. Oil under Russian control is the lifeblood of both of these countries. Recent developments and new international contracts with Russia clearly show whom these leaders are actually listening to.

The Geography of War: No Iraq…? No Iran!

Turkey would appear to be firmly shifting into Russian influence. A NATO member in name only. Ever since he shot down his first- and last– Russian fighter jet, Turkish president Recep Tayyip Erdogan has thumbed his nose at the Americans. Recently he refused to succumb to pressure and will receive Iranian oil and, in July, the Russian S-400 anti-aircraft/missile system. This is important since there is zero chance Putin will relinquish command and control or see them missiles used against Russian armaments. Now, Erdogan is considering replacing his purchase of thirty US F-35s with the far superior Russian SU- 57 and a few S-500s for good measure.

Economically, America did all it could to stop the Turk Stream gas pipeline installed by Russia’s Gazprom, that runs through Turkey to eastern Europe and will provide $billions to Erdogan and Turkey. It will commence operation this year. Erdogan continues to purchase Iranian oil and to call for Arab nations to come together against US invasion in Iran. This week, Turkish Defense Minister Hulusi Akar renewed Turkey’s resolve, saying his country is preparing for potential American sanctions as a deadline reportedly set by the US for Ankara to cancel the S-400 arms deal with Russia or face penalties draws near.

So, Turkey is out for both a ground war and an air war since the effectiveness of all those S-400’s might be put to good use if America was to launch from naval positions in the Mediterranean. Attacking from the Black Sea is out since it is ringed by countries under Russo/ Sino influence and any attack on Iran will have to illegally cross national airspace aligned with countries preferring the Russo/ Sino alliance that favours peace. An unprovoked attack would leave the US fleet surrounded with the only safe harbours in Romania and Ukraine. Ships move much slower than missiles.

Afghanistan is out, as the Taliban are winning. Considering recent peace talks from which they walked out and next slaughtered a police station near the western border with Iran, they have already won. Add the difficult terrain near the Iranian border and a ground invasion is very unlikely

Although new Pakistani President Amir Khan has all the power and authority of a primary school crossing guard, the real power within the Pakistani military, the ISI, is more than tired of American influence. ISI has propagated the Taliban for years and often gave refuge to Afghan anti-US forces allowing them to use their common border for cover. Although in the past ISI has been utterly mercenary in its very duplicitous- at least- foreign allegiances, after a decade of US drone strikes on innocent Pakistanis, the chance of ground-based forces being allowed is very doubtful. Like Afghanistan terrain also increases this unlikelihood.

Considerations as to terrain and location for a ground war and the resulting failure of not doing so was shown to Israel previously when, in 2016 Hizbullah virtually obliterated its ground attack, heavy armour and battle tanks in the hills of southern Lebanon. In further cautionary detail, this failure cost PM Ehud Olmert his job.

For the Russo/ Sino pact nations, or those leaning in their direction, the definition of national foreign interest is no longer military, it is economic. Those with resources and therefore bright futures within the expanding philosophy and economic offerings of the Russo/ Sino pact have little use any longer for the “Sorrows of Empire.” These nation’s leaders, if nothing more than to line their own pockets, have had a very natural epiphany: War…is not, for them, profitable.

For Iran, the geographic, economic and therefore geo-political ring of defensive nations is made complete by Syria, Lebanon and Iraq. Syria, like Iraq, has every reason to despise the Americans and similar reasons to embrace Iran, Russia, China and border neighbour Lebanon. Syria now has its own Russian S-300 system which is already bringing down Israeli missiles. It is surprising that Lebanon has not requested a few S-300s of their own. No one knows what Hizbullah has up its sleeve, but it has been enough to keep the Israelis at bay. Combined with a currently more prepared Lebanese army, Lebanon under the direction of Nasrallah is a formidable nation for its size. Ask Israel.

Lebanon and Syria also take away the chance of a ground-based attack, leaving the US Marines and Army to stare longingly across the Persian Gulf open waters from Saudi Arabia or one of its too few and militarily insignificant allies in the southern Gulf region.

Friendly airspace will also be vastly limited, so also gone will be the tactical element of surprise of any incoming attack. The reality of this defensive ring of nations means that US military options will be severely limited. The lack of a ground invasion threat and the element of surprise will allow Iranian defences to prioritize and therefore be dramatically more effective. As shown in a previous article, “The Return of the Madness of M.A.D,” Iran like Russia and China, after forty years of US/ Israeli threats, has developed new weapons and military capabilities, that combined with tactics will make any direct aggression towards it by American forces a fair fight.

If the US launches a war it will go it alone except for the few remaining US lapdogs like the UK, France, Germany and Australia, but with anti-US emotions running as wild across the EU as in the southern Caspian nations, the support of these Zionist influenced EU leaders is not necessarily guaranteed.

Regardless, a lengthy public ramp-up to stage military assets for an attack by the US will be seen by the vast majority of the world- and Iran- as an unprovoked act of war. Certainly at absolute minimum Iran will close the Straits of Hormuz, throwing the price of oil skyrocketing and world economies into very shaky waters. World capitalist leaders will not be happy. Without a friendly landing point for ground troops, the US will either have to abandon this strategy in favour of an air war or see piles of body bags of US servicemen sacrificed to Israeli inspired hegemony come home by the thousands just months before the ’20 primary season. If this is not military and economic suicide, it is certainly political.

Air war will likely see a similar disaster. With avenues of attack severely restricted, obvious targets such as Iran’s non-military nuclear program and major infrastructure will be thus more easily defended and the likelihood of the deaths of US airmen similarly increased.

In terms of Naval power, Bolton would have only the Mediterranean as a launch pad, since using the Black Sea to initiate war will see the US fleet virtually surrounded by nations aligned with the Russo/ Sino pact. Naval forces, it should be recalled, are, due to modern anti-ship technologies and weapons, now the sitting ducks of blusterous diplomacy. A hot naval war in the Persian Gulf, like a ground war, will leave a US death toll far worse than the American public has witnessed in their lifetimes and the US navy in tatters.

Trump is already reportedly seething that his machismo has been tarnished by Bolton and Pompeo’s false assurances of an easy overthrow of Maduro in Venezuela. With too many top generals getting jumpy about him initiating a hot war with Iraq, Bolton’s stock in trade-war is waning. Trump basks in being the American bully personified, but he and his ego will not stand for being exposed as weak. Remaining as president is necessary to stoke his shallow character. When Trump’s limited political intelligence wakes up to the facts that his Zio masters want a war with Iran more than they want him as president, and that these forces can easily replace him with a Biden, Harris, Bernie or Warren political prostitute instead, even America’s marmalade Messiah, will lose the flavor of his master’s blood lust for war.

In two excellent articles in Asia times by Pepe Escobar, he details the plethora of projects, agreements, and cooperation that are taking place from Asia to the Mid-East to the Baltics. Lead by Russia and China this very quickly developing Russo/ Sino pact of economic opportunity and its intentions of “soft power” collectively spell doom for Zio-America’s only remaining tactics of influence: military intervention. States, Escobar:

“We should know by now that the heart of the 21st Century Great Game is the myriad layers of the battle between the United States and the partnership of Russia and China. The long game indicates Russia and China will break down language and cultural barriers to lead Eurasian integration against American economic hegemony backed by military might.”

The remaining civilized world, that which understands the expanding world threat of Zio-America, can rest easy. Under the direction of this new Russo/ Sino influence, without Iraq, the US will not launch a war on Iran.

This growing Axis of Sanity surrounds Iran geographically and empathetically, but more importantly, economically. This economy, as clearly stated by both Putin and Xi, does not benefit from any further wars of American aggression. In this new allegiance to future riches, it is Russian and China that will call the shots and a shooting war involving their new client nations will not be sanctioned from the top.

However, to Putin, Xi and this Axis of Sanity: If American wishes to continue to bankrupt itself by ineffective military adventures of Israel’s making, rather than fix its own nation that is in societal decline and desiccated after decades of increasing Zionist control, well…

That just good for business!

Brett Redmayne-Titley has published over 170 in-depth articles over the past eight years for news agencies worldwide. Many have been translated and republished. On-scene reporting from important current events has been an emphasis that has led to his many multi-part exposes on such topics as the Trans-Pacific Partnership negotiations, NATO summit, Keystone XL Pipeline, Porter Ranch Methane blow-out, Hizbullah in Lebanon, Erdogan’s Turkey and many more. He can be reached at: live-on-scene@gmx.com. Prior articles can be viewed at his archive: www.watchingromeburn.uk

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  • verner

    put like that it makes sense but where the neo-nazis are concerned they are at the end of the rope and desperate to maintain a hold on the world and when everything else fails – sanctions, threats and false flag operations – a hot war, short they hope, might be the only viable stratagem to resort to.

    • You can call me Al

      The US have some major problems brewing at home as well, in summary the USA really is becoming a shit hole.

      Every now and again, take a peak at “Zero Hedge”… rats, homeless, suicides, unhinged politicians, drug overdoses, violence, infrastructure collapse, medicare…… if you are anti-American, it (even) makes sad reading. OH YES, military recruitment is well down, because of levels of Intelligence, schooling, fitness, physical fitness, mental fitness and obesity.

  • DaBoiiiii

    Please don’t compare Sayed Hassan Nasrallah to Muqtada Al Sadr.

    Al Sadr and his militia were almost nonexistent in the struggle against ISIS, the main force fighting them was the Badr organisation and the rest of the Hashid. Al Sadr is also an extremely erratic and unpredictable individual.

    • d’Artagnan

      Muqtada al Sadr is a certified lunatic and an ingrate. He hid in Qom, Iran during Saddam’s era and now is on CIA payroll and he also has back-channel communications with the Saudi savages and Zionists. I am surprised such a unprincipled lunatic has not been knocked off by now.

      • DaBoiiiii

        Tbh I don’t think he is on a CIA payroll.

        I think he is just, as you put it, an ingrate. He’s very child like in his demeanour.

  • DaBoiiiii

    Oh and there’s a typo, Hizbullah defeated the Israelis in 2006, not 2016.

    • Criticalthinker101

      He confused UK boxer “President Amir Khan” to former Pakistani cricketer, Imran Khan who is the Pakistani leader.

      • verner

        you repeat yourself and that is a bore when the repetition concern an irrelevant detail.

      • You can call me Al

        So what ?, if you think you can do better, write the next article, SF will post it.

        • Criticalthinker101

          A child could do a better proof reading job. Now go fuck off Al.

          • You can call me Al

            Ok.

  • klove and light

    2 weeks ago i wrote About saturdays bill in Parlament regarding us troops withdrawl……and that if it passes , all bets are off for the americans …….i tryed to find results…but couldnt……seems like US bullying behing closed doors…but that could only work through direct links with prime Minister…..one can only hope..this fuck wont sell his Soul ie. Saddam hussein 2.0……..then again….the US as in syria can well say ” fuck it..we are here we are staying”…..i mean lets face it….nobody gives a shit About intl´law anymore , see Israel and Golan or Jerusalem…..or Assange getting arrested in an embassy or the illegal occupation of syria, by Turkey and USA…….nobody gives a shit…and united nations has lost allll credibility…….ps. the USA is transferring Isis from syria to the al anbar Region in iraq……that will probably be their “legal excuse”..to fight Isis…………..Maybe it is time for the PMU to kick some us ass….then again…as pointed out by themselves….they wont attack without orders…or to defend themselves…….it allm boils down to the attack on Iran…..and i would not like to be a us Military member in iraq once the attack has begun…..they surely will face extremely tempered and violent resistance by PMU….

    • Ace

      Your unconventional writing style is silly. A serious person does not indulge in such foolishness.

  • VeeNarian (Yerevan)

    If the blood-thirsty Saudis allow the US Evil Empire to launch a war against Iran from its territory, then the brave Houthis should go all the way to re-arrange KSA and take control of the the Holy sites.
    The days of Saudi rule should number in weeks if they condone this disastrous war against Iran.
    The simultaneous blocking of the straights of Hormuz and at Yemen should really focus the EU slaves.
    It is time to remove the Saudi scourge.

    • You can call me Al

      Forget the first half of the first sentence. The Houthis should go all the way to rearrange KSA anyway, whatever happens.

      With you on the blocking of the straights.

      • FlorianGeyer

        It is well past time for the very large and violently oppressed Shia population within Saudi Arabia to be armed for an insurgency against the Saudi regime. The Shiah also live in the main oil producing area of the Kingdom, yet are very poor.

        A prolonged insurgency led IED campaign against the Saudi oilfields would be Karma indeed :)

    • Jens Holm

      All that is internal arabic and persian crap. Making stinking blimps like that is far out.

      Iran will get vital parts of its infrastructure destroyed, and Iran wont be able to kill a single american but be able to land a few missiles at the other side of th contested water.

      • VeeNarian (Yerevan)

        How many US soldiers died in Vietnam and Iraq? You think US troops occupying Iraq will be safe if Iran is attacked? Then there is the massive economic damage.
        Don;t start a war against Iran for RACISM and world domination or there will be hell to pay.

        • Jens Holm

          There hardly will be any troops in Iraq. You seemes not to get anything.

          They will punish You from Saudis and the coaststates there as well as with long distance bomberjets.

          If they prepared as You as blimp blowing up in internal mismanegement well lead by propaganda by Your Leaders, We all would see a massive USA build up semilar or a little smaller then the attacks for Iraq.

          Smaller because war nowerdays is much more by air and here instead as support to the boycut. It hardly wont be a war against soldiers but knocking out infrastructure such as electricity, watersupplies, factories, internet, bridges and railwaycenters in the open.

          • VeeNarian (Yerevan)

            If it wasn’t for Iran then Syria and Iraq would be in IS hands. That is why US Evil Empire hates Iran.
            Hezbollah is against Israeli occupation. How many US troops have been killed by Hezbollah?
            There are thousands of US occupation troops in Iraq who have been asked to leave by the Iraqi parliament and will become targets as soon as Iran is attacked.
            As for the disgusting head-chopping Saudis, did you know that 15/19 hijackers on 9/11 were Saudis, and funded by the GOVERNMENT of Saudi Arabia?
            So, how does it feel to support a bunch of barbaric head-choppers in Saudi Arabia whose ilk murdered 3000 on 9/11 and thousands more world-wide?
            This is truly disgusting on your part and the part of the US/EU/NATO leaders.
            That is why I would support Iran any day, even as a British Indian Hindu.
            India should say f.o. to the US Evil Empire and buy more oil from Iran and Venezuela.

  • verner

    but should the morons be so stupid as to start a war on Iran, the Iranians can close the hormuz without firing one missile but by dropping mines across the entire sound in a tight tight pattern and after one tanker goes down all transports of oil´from ras tanura/kuwait und zu weiter would be halted and a price hike to 250 bucks per barrel would be a certainty.

    the iraq/iran war was stopped when the french sold exocet missiles to iran which subsequently sank a couple of tankers going in and that was that – end of war so the closing of the hormuz might be the key to this entire fubar and it’s the iranians that sit on that key and it’s the neo-nazis that can fuck up (as they are prone to do anyways)

  • Criticalthinker101

    “President Amir Khan” that’s where you lost all intellectual credibility. Amir Khan is a boxer from the UK. Imran Khan, the Pakistani cricketer, heads Pakistan. They don’t even compete in the same sport. I roll my head at your patheticness.

    • d’Artagnan

      There could be a mutual inclusivity as most Pakistanis are on US and Saudi largesse. Imran Khan was raised by the Goldsmith Jews of UK, Amir Khan is probably taking money from Jew bookies :)

      • You can call me Al

        Whilst I knew he married a Goldsmith, I never put 2 and 2 together, before your comment. Thanks.

    • verner

      well anyone can make a mistake but the article is right on and shouldn’t be discarded for such an inane excuse as the one you rely on. go to bed and stay bedded down while thinking lofty thoughts on trivialities.

  • Arnte
    • Tommy Jensen

      Exactly what I and Bolton have recommended for years. Take back Iran, no more bs.

      It must be done here and now and not tomorrow evening. We have the power and at this stage China will only be smiling and Russia will crawl back to their brown cabbage and gas stations … …….LOL. Its that easy man!

      • FlorianGeyer

        It it OK if Mexico takes back Texas whilst you are playing soldiers in Iran , Tommy :)

        • Jens Holm

          Houston never will allow that.

      • Ace

        “Take back” Iran? When did we “have” Iran?

        You are giving mindless jingoism a bad name. Pretty soon you’ll be telling us the boys will be home by Christmas. Which Christmas remains to be seen.

        • Jens Holm

          Britts had it in WW2.

          Americans assisted by the russians tranported in airplanes and vehicles in there to USSR by Qaum as well.

          • Ace

            Did the Iranians ever “have” Iran? All those foreigners “having” Iran must be confusing to the locals. Kind of like the Israelis “having” Palestine.

          • Jens Holm

            You can ask. The Youngest might be 74 or more.

            https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Persian_Corridor

          • Jens Holm

            My memory had forgot the Shah in WW2 also was replaced to Pahlevi, which ceratinly took over and wasnt popular and was a brutal Leader there until Khomeini.

            I wrote in in my link below. I thought Pahlevi took over much later maybee 1955 or something.

  • Tommy Jensen

    Its not that easy folks to “vote” on what America should do and not do, and you know it!

  • Ace

    “. . . initiating a hot war with Iraq Iran?”

  • Free man

    The Iraqis don’t want to be a part of the madness of the mullahs regime.
    The more the mullahs try to “market” their hate doctrine, the more the Iraqis understand how destructive and irrational this fanatic doctrine is. A process that is taking place within Iran as well.