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DECEMBER 2021

Syrian Army, Kanakir Locals Reached New Reconciliation Agreement: Monitoring Group

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The Syrian Arab Army (SAA) and Kanakir’s locals have reached an initial agreement that will restart the reconciliation process in the town, the London-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights (SOHR) reported on October 3.

Earlier this week, the SAA deployed large reinforcements around Kanakir, that’s locate south of the capital, Damascus. The army was about to launch a military operation against militants hiding in the town. The militants were responsible for a number of recent attacks.

According to the SOHR, the initial agreement was reached after a meeting between senior SAA officers and prominent figures from Kanakir.

Under the new agreement, the following terms will be implemented:

  • The SAA will put its plan to launch an operation in Kanakir on hold;
  • Kanakir’s militants will join the reconciliation agreement and enlist in pro-government forces;
  • The militants who refuse to join the reconciliation agreement will be departed to opposition-held areas in northern Syria;
  • SAA troops will enter Kanakir and establish a number of positions inside the town;
  • SAA troops will launch a search operation in Kanakir’s farmlands to look for weapons caches.

Some opposition sources claimed that the agreement is being implemented and that SAA troops are already entering Kanakir. However, this is yet to be confirmed.

Syrian Army, Kanakir Locals Reached New Reconciliation Agreement: Monitoring Group

Click to see full-size map. Source: (@Suriyakmaps) on Twitter, Via Google Maps – TerraMetrics

Tension escalated in Kanakir last month after the arrest of local wanted women by security forces. The town’s militants used the arrest as a pretext to resume attacks on government forces, violating the 2016 reconciliation agreement.

The new agreement will help restate the rule of law in Kanakir without the need for a military operation that may lead to human losses on both sides.

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Lone Ranger

Good job again ??
CIAisis will cry and rage…

The Objective

I’m surprised to learn of yet another opposition force to Assad. This guy will never reunite Syria under his rule.

Fog of War

Great , another useless agreement. The militants will comply until they dont. This is a shitshow of epic proportions and near Damascus. WTF ?

Willing Conscience (The Truths

“Tension escalated in Kanakir last month after the arrest of local wanted women by security forces.”

I can only assume the woman/women they’re referring to are the women who were leading the anti Iranian protests last month, they weren’t inciting violence or demanding the overthrow of Assad, just demanding an end to Iranian presence in their neighbourhoods, and now for all their trouble and effort, they’re rotting in jail courtesy of Iran’s unreasonable demands.
And of course men always jump to defend the fairer sex, so that’s exactly what the opposition are doing now, trying to force the release of the arrested women, so I wonder if terms for the women’s release will also be included in the negotiation process.
Iran is breeding dissention in Syria like no other party is even close to causing, the US has about a 50% approval factor for being illegal occupiers, the Turks have about a 30% approval for being illegal occupiers, and Iran has less than a 10% approval for being present, and that’s despite the fact they’re legally authorized to be there.
It’s hard to win a war when your allies are less popular with the locals than the invaders are, so Assad certainly has his work cut out for him doesn’t he, and continuously pushing shit uphill is going to take its toll at some point, something will eventually snap beyond repair, and then sadly that could cause everything else to come crashing down too.
My biggest criticism of Assad is his continual pandering to Iranian demands and his complete reluctance to listen to what the locals are saying about the Iranian presence, this is causing the people who signed reconciliation agreements with the government to regret their decisions and begin to flood back to the still actively opposed opposition forces, and at some stage this process will reach a tipping point, and we all know what that means, rebellion.
Assad could quickly lose Quneitra, Daraa, and As Suwayda if another rebellion flares up in the south, which would then likely lead to a concerted effort by the opposition forces in Idlib, and the Isis forces in Deir ez Zor, to open up new fronts against the SAA to take full advantage of Assad’s divided concentration.
So from my point of view everything seems to be going to hell in a handbasket now, and I hold my biggest criticism for Iranian obstinance and their refusal to compromise with the locals. You just can’t push a square peg into a round hole, you can hammer it in though, but that leaves either a deformed round hole or a deformed square peg, which is exactly what’s happening in Quneitra, Daraa, and As Suwayda right now, which is a real pity because there is a square hole for the square plug to fit into, several square holes in fact, but sadly the Iranians seem determined to hammer their square peg into all the round holes as well as the square holes.

The Objective

But do you have any idea why Iran doesn’t want to leave despite the Locals and Russia wanting them to? I don’t understand why the Mullahs in Tehran won’t get their clutches out of any country they dip into no matter the cost in live and treasure. I’m pretty sure Iran leaving Syria won’t lead to the fall of Assad, but instead remove any excuses Israel has to continually launch attacks on Syria. God willing, Russia is the country preventing the fall of Assad. Left to Iran, NATO would probably have bombed the shit out of Syria by now. It appears even the Russians can’t get Iran out of Syria.

Willing Conscience (The Truths

You understand the situation quite well but Iran doesn’t have to pull out altogether to achieve a peaceful outcome, just cease it’s military buildup.
Many people fail to understand Russia’s reluctance to stop Israeli attacks against Iranian infrastructure that are located in Syria, but the reason is very obvious to anyone who reads what Russia’s premiere think tank has to suggest.
This is what the smartest people in Russia have to say and their job is to promote Russian interest all around the world, so they should know what they’re talking about, have a read if you have the time.
……………..

RIAC article.

“On August 26, 2018 Damascus and Tehran signed a military cooperation agreement which envisages Iran’s help to rebuild Syrian military industry and infrastructure. In fact, such deal potentially cements Iran’s presence in Syria and makes Damascus even more dependent on Tehran. If the Syrian army and military industry are rebuilt by Iran, further Iranian influence over Damascus is to be expected.

At the same time, it creates a number of quite big obstacles for moving forward with the political process and reforms in Syria. Excessive Iranian presence in Syria irritates Israel, the US, Turkey, Russia, and even Damascus itself. Being weak and with no foreign alternative to rely on regarding the funds for reconstruction, Syrian government is pushed closer to Iran. As a result, progress in political process, reconstruction, and return of the refugees seems highly

impossible, as all of it requires broad international involvement. Who will sponsor restoration of the Syrian military?
One of the most pressing issues of the post-war Syria restoration process is the funds: Who is going to pay for the reconstruction?

Today, neither Syrian government, nor its allies together — Russia and Iran — are able to pay for the country’s reconstruction. It seems especially problematic due to the economic problems Moscow and Tehran experience themselves.

Restoration and reforming the military it becomes even more challenging.

First, in the last seven years Iran has heavily invested in Syria creating sophisticated multi-layered presence and it is extremely unlikely that Tehran will leave the country without return on its investments. It has already struck a deal with Damascus which grants Tehran exclusive right to assist in rebuilding Syrian military industry and infrastructure. The situation creates additional risks for the Syrian state. Excessive Iranian presence in Syria will be the major irritant for Israel and the US that almost certainly excludes any lift of Syria sanctions which are necessary for the successful reconstruction and economic restoration of the country.

Second, Iran’s presence irritates Moscow which has its own military infrastructure in Syria. Excessive Iranian presence in the country is counter-productive for Russia’s long-term Syria policy which eventually envisages political transition, reforms and reconciliation with the regional powers and the West. From the very beginning, deployment of the Russian military was a double-edge sword.

On the one hand, Kremlin’s decision to deploy its air and special forces to Syria in fall of 2015 was a result of an agreement with Damascus and Tehran aiming at preventing Syria from collapse. Russia’s air cover without Iranian forces on the ground would be meaningless, so it was mutually beneficial division of labor which worked out quite successfully for its purposes.

On the other hand, Russia’s military deployment to Syria sent a signal to Israel and the West that Iran would not be left unchecked. Moscow is seen as a force which is able to keep Iranian presence in the country in check to a certain degree. The recent deal on south Syria between Russia, Israel and the US, which envisaged Iranian forces pull out from the Syria-Israeli border, is a good evidence.

Damascus understands that and might use this issue as a bargaining chip in its talks with the West and GCC states to eventually attract their money into Syria.

In such context, there is an opportunity to attract foreign sources to restore Syrian army and to reconstruct the country. The GCC and Israel should be very much interested in rebuilding Syria with lesser Iranian presence. By helping out Russia to accomplish this task regional players impose indirect limits on Iran’s presence in Syria. With no foreign assistance Tehran receives more room to grow its influence in the country further. This might well help Moscow to make sure the new Syrian army is free from Iranian influence or is at least not dominated. The stronger the army and the central government — the lesser it needs foreign partner to rely on. Moreover, in the MENA region armies also play a role of state-building element — which makes successful military reform crucial for a country’s restoration. Otherwise, Iran has quite good prospects of increasing its influence in Syria and stimulating further rise of sectarianism in the country.

Thus, Russia should exploit this opportunity to counter balance Iranian influence in Syria’s military with the help of the foreign donors whose funds will assist in restoring and reforming country’s military and central command system. Although this task sounds very ambitious it remains achievable: Russia has already proved its ability to strike deals with regional actors, including cash-rich GCC states, despite many differences and disagreements. Such approach will help not only to find a compromise on Syria but also to restore cross-regional economic ties ruined during the war.”

https://russiancouncil.ru/en/

……

“The recent deal on south Syria between Russia, Israel and the US, which envisaged Iranian forces pull out from the Syria-Israeli border, is a good evidence.”

This part of the comment refers to the june 2018 deal to take back Quneitra, Daraa, and As Suwayda, a deal the Iranians broke twice, firstly when they defied Israel demands not to deploy Iranian forces closer than 60km from the Israeli border, and secondly when they refused to stop their military buildup post june 2018.

nyomarek

Imagine you live in a small village and you don’t go to pub or the grocery market each Saturday, but arm up to the teeth with AKs with a bunch of other villagers and defend the surrounding land.

Lucia West

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