Original written by Vasiliy Muravitskiy and published by politnavigator.net; translated from Russian by J.Hawk
The school director watched as mother and father were demonstratively cursing at their hooligan son. Those weren’t negotiations, but rather reprimands…Application of pressure and recommendations that cannot be refused. Merkel and Hollande insisted Poroshenko abide by Minsk Agreements. And Putin did not say a word–he only watched.
Bloomberg writes: Poroshenko was in an angry mood that day. He just gave his angry speech at the UN, only slightly earlier he attended Avakov’s weapon presentation. But he still did not understand, Bloomberg believes, that his government’s support is only conditional, and that Morell Plan, which he referred to the “Mr. Morell’s personal opinion,” will have to be implemented.
The main outcome of reprimands and pressure is this: DPR and LPR will carry out elections in accordance with Ukrainian laws and with Kiev recognizing their results. All the participants will be given immunity for the elections, and the Minsk Agreement implementation will continue. Bloomberg refers to this decision as “spitting on Poroshenko.”
In other words, on Hollande’s and Merkel’s insistence, the current LPR and DPR authorities will receive legal status. It is impossible to have Rada pass a law on elections in the republics given the current parliamentary anarchy. It’s a situation in which Poroshenko loses no matter what, whether he agrees to or opposes LPR/DPR elections. In the first instance, he loses the support of his base electorate and consolidates the right radicals against himself. In the second instance, he loses Hollande’s and Merkel’s support, forcing them to undertake steps to, among other things, replace him.
Therefore Poroshenko has two options: 1) delay implementing the Minsk and Paris agreements; 2) suppress the radicals, Yuliya Timoshenko, seek contact with the Opposition block, and hold Rada elections in the Spring.
He doesn’t have sufficient power to suppress the radicals, especially since he himself radicalized the society and promoted the militaristic hysteria in Ukraine. And now he has to take a step in the opposite direction.
Freezing the conflict will deepen the social and economic collapse and fragmentation of Ukraine, its internal conflicts, and factional clashes.
LPR and DPR are not Transnistria, it’s too large a frozen conflict to simply coexist with it.
Therefore Poroshenko has no choice but to head the destruction of his own political base, lead new forces into the Parliament (perhaps already in the Spring), and reformat government structures.
Thus he must apply extraordinary efforts and display supreme agility in order to survive such a sharp turn. Will he have enough strength? Almost certainly not. And that sour face of Poroshenko’s on the photo that everyone discussed, is an indicator of the approaching demise of Ukraine’s current president. Demise that’s mainly political in nature, but possibly not only… It’s almost impossible to squirm one’s way out of a situation like his.
The downside is that Poroshenko’s political demise will, one way or the other, cause the chaos and lawlesness in Ukraien to get worse…