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Soledar And Bakhmut About To Fall?

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Soledar And Bakhmut About To Fall?

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Larry Johnson’s analysis

Larry Johnson has kindly allowed me to repost his superb analyses. Please visit his site and browse. I have reposted one article at the end of my own but there is a lot more on his site.

Larry’s analyses are fairly short, but he makes some interesting connections others do not.

Written by Julian Macfarlane on January 10, 2023

Nuclear War?

Larry begins in the article talking about arch neo-cons, Gates and Rice who want the US to supply more “cow bell” — a trillion dollars or so to support the Ukraine.

What would this mean if carried out as they want?

Nothing good.

It could trigger a massive Russian retaliation, destroying all US/NATO bases in Europe in an hour or two. It wouldn’t even have to be a nuclear attack, considering the kinetic energy of Russia’s new hypersonic missiles.

The US would be left with few options.

Nuclear suicide? That’s the one that everyone worries about.

The US and Canada are just one big island, almost completely surrounded by waters where threat lurks.

As the Americans are always saying, “We have to fight them over there so we don’t fight them here”. They dimly understand their vulnerability.

If the Russians take out NATO (US) military bases in Europe, the war would suddenly be very much “over here”.

Russian submarines off the coast of Washington DC could launch nuclear or non-nuclear strikes before the US had even begun warming up its missiles in their silos.

A hypersonic missile takes 30 seconds to cover 100 km.

A nuclear launch takes 15 minutes from the time the President makes his decision. In Biden’s case, it would be longer. He would need a few PowerPoint sessions first and someone to remind him where the nuclear keys are and how to use them.

Unlike the Russians, the US has no credible anti-missile defenses to protect them at home.

How many Americans really want to die for Zelensky?

In my last article. “The Tunnel at the End of the Tunnel” I pointed out that Ukraine is just one battleground in WWIII, a global conflict fought by proxies, mostly economically, not for Zelensky but for the Global One Percent.

I argued that this is one reason the SMO has gone on so long, even though the Russians had the means to end it months ago. If the Ukraine is the US’s proxy against Russia’; it is also Russia’s— against that evilest of evil empires—the Fourth Reich—America.

Putin has no illusions about the US, whose actions since WWII lead many to think it a nation of malign narcissists — systemically psychopathic.

The Banzai War

In the Ukraine you now have a war of attrition, with Zelensky attempting suicidal mass wave attacks. Banzai!

In the “West”, it is also “Banzai”. The US is an “adversarial” culture. Always “Us” against “Them”. And like the Japanese always “winning” until completely defeated.

Soledar And Bakhmut About To Fall?

Japan. 1945

It’s a perverse form of cultural fascism. The Japanese called it “hakko ichiu”, “eight *cords— one roof. The world under one roof. Unipolarity, in other words. The Japanese thought themselves exceptional too. In fact, they still do.

Americans take that their superiority for granted. “We are the world” is not just a song.

Now Russia is leading a fight against the American version of hakko ichiu—hoping to liberate the slaves.

The Ukrainians had a minor success recently killing 89 Russians in a HIMARS missile attack. The response of the West and its Mainstream Media was…you guessed it! — banzai!

The Russians responded, offering a short ceasefire for Orthodox Christmas — which the Ukrainians rejected shelling civilian settlements.

Soledar And Bakhmut About To Fall?

Click to see full-size image

Once they had finished lighting the Christmas candles, the Russians struck two dormitories in Kramatorsk housing 600 and 700 Ukrainian soldiers in dormitories #28 and #47 respectively. The Russians claimed ‘more than 600 casualties’.

The Ukrainians claimed zero. Not even one from this massive missile strike. Not even the janitor. Or his dog.

The Russian claim is based on their own intelligence and of course the assumption that their missiles actually hit the right dormitories when they were occupied.

Video footage from the Ukrainian side show one set of buildings with the windows blown out and the doors boarded up — unoccupied—but still standing. Were these the dormitories targeted? Or just one of the numerous dormitory buildings on site. Or some other kind of building.

Ukrainian media are prohibited from supply casualty figures and the Ukrainians are notorious for lying about…well…everything in this war. So we don’t actually know from their side. Journalists from “friendly” media are being shown a singel windowless building with a crater in front. “See, no bodies”. And no signs indicating what this building was. As in “Dormitory #29”.

Just one building apparently in the middle of nowhere.

Soledar And Bakhmut About To Fall?

Click to see full-size image

In law, no body, no crime.

The Ukrainians have a thing about bodies.

They leave their dead behind on the battlefield because then they are not counted as casualties. They dig up graves of civilians they themselves killed and present them the bodies as proof of Russian “atrocities”. Think of the bodies in Bucha. Fresh after supposedly being on the street for weeks and wearing the white bands that signify Russian sympathizers. But Western journalists jumped on the bandwagon, or rather the death cart. Banzai!

Yes, the Russians might have missed.

Soledar And Bakhmut About To Fall?

Click to see full-size image

BUT — if the Russians were using cellphone traffic for targeting—something they have done many times before— and as the Ukrainians appear to have done in Makeevka— the assessment of 600 casualties might be a conservative estimate. Just, the Ukrainians won’t tell you.

The Russians rarely lie. They know that the best propaganda is the truth.

As I said, it could very well be the Russians missed. But since Ukrainian propaganda lies so much, doubts arise. And Kalibr missiles which have been continuously improved since introduction are very accurate.

Retaliation Done Right

All that aside, the number of dead is not the point— which instead is that the Russians have established time and again, that they will retaliate — but never in any knee jerk fashion. Their retaliations are always tactical.

At the same time as this missile strike and others elsewhere, the Russians stepped up the war, along the “contact line”. The graphics are courtesy of SouthFront.

Soledar And Bakhmut About To Fall?

Click to see full-size image

They have recently taken part of Soledar, as well as Bakhmut and three of the Salt Mines in the area, which Larry correctly suggests are hiding something — most likely munitions. No matter, these mines have only a few portals. They are not Azovstal.

If Soledar falls, as seems likely soon, despite Ukrainian retreat to trenches and bunkers, the way will be open for a two-pronged assault on Seversk from the south and east along the highway – and from the West from Lisichansk.

If Bahkmut falls, also likely soon, then assaults are possible west to Konstantinovka, then right to Kramatorsk which will be threatened by a Russian assault directed at Seversk and Slavyansk. Or the Russians can drive straight through to Slavyansk.

My guess is that the Ukrainians have weeks — perhaps just days.

The UAF’s second defense line now is Seversk, Slavyansk and Kramatorsk. If this line falls, as it must, the Russians will be able to dominate all of Eastern Ukraine. Other cities such as Odessa and Zaporizhya will go down quickly. The Russians can take Kharkov.

The Ukrainians will have to think about defending Western Ukraine itself— especially Lviv, threatened by Russian forces in Belarus. Let’s not forget Kiev.

With the ground frozen, the Russians can now deploy armor.

The New Tunnel

This the “Endgame” I talked about. Or — at least— the new Tunnel—which leads to a new direction.

What can the Ukrainians do?

There is “chatter” about them mounting a counteroffensive against Mariupol.

But since this is “talk” you can bet that the Russians are prepared — and such an offensive would end up as a very bloody distraction, further depopulating Western Ukraine, which is quickly becoming a country of ghosts.

Let us keep in mind that the Ukrainians have not mounted even just one successful counteroffensive of any size against determined Russian opposition. Where they have advanced, as in Kharkov or in Kherson City, it is because the Russians withdrew forces to better strategic positions. Each “advance” cost the UAF men and equipment.

You will notice that Zelensky is looking a little chubbier these days. Hitting the bottle, a bit?

Gates and Rice are saying there is no way the West can save Ukraine without a level of support that approximates direct intervention. As we pointed out, that would be the end of the US of A. So that won’t happen.

Instead, you will get more money thrown at the Ukraine, with generous margins for the One Percent.

The equipment offered will be mostly old, or obsolete, or simply too little in quantity. A garage sale for the US military.

Soledar And Bakhmut About To Fall?

Bradley destroyed in Iraq

The offer of a few old, heavy, thinly armored Bradley Fighting Vehicles won’t do anything as Martyanov points out. Nor will a few old, heavy, thinly armored Marders. Or a few Patriot missiles, with proven problems.

Soledar And Bakhmut About To Fall?

Patriot Targeting Problems

As for tanks, the loading weight restriction on Ukrainian roads and bridges is just 44 tonnes. Russian tanks are 42 to 45 tonnes. The Abrams is 66 tonnes. Which is why, of course, the Abrams tanks will never be sent. If they had been sent in December, they would have just sunk in the mud.

Soledar And Bakhmut About To Fall?

Click to see full-size image

M! in the Mud

M1s are not totally useable. Just not useable as intended— in the end a gift to the Russians, who can probably find something to do with them, although they are a bit big to use as paper weights.

IMO, Larry’s article signals the desperation of the West caught in a self-destructive loop.

For the rest of the article, please click here to go to my Substack Site. 

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FJB

Soledar, Bakhmut, Kramatorsk, Slavyansk. These are the main logistics hubs for the AFU Donbass grouping. Taking Soledar and Bakhmut is starting a domino effect that will collapse the whole defense of the AFU in the region.

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Boba Lazarević

Sorry about the wrong reply up there. It was meant for the “Mexican Beaner”. Cheers.

USA is a shithole, EU is becoming one

Hopefully the entire AFU will collapse all the way to Transnistria.

🇷🇺

John Deer

12 damns on the river rhine there are. Ooops.

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John Deer

Ukraine can still attack with armor from Kharkov to Belgorod, having gathered its tanks underground like in August.

Isser Harel

Only the lowest of scum banks millions off the death of their fellow citizens. The current thieves in kiev make the nazis of old look like amateurs.

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Emrisrex

Good article

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bert33

Neutral observers can independently verify things like body counts and battle outcomes, so can military ones. One thing is for sure, the longer zelensky keeps dragging his feet on the formal surrender thing, the more people are going to die, and the longer western entities keep giving him weapons and money…Russia is fully committed to winning. Whether that victory takes place on the battlefield or at the negotiation table doesn’t matter, it will be theirs. Better for the ukranian people if it’s at the negotiation table.

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USA is a shithole, EU is becoming one

The Abrams closes 80t now! Without all that additional armor it is obsolete on the battlefield. TUSK is heavy, too.

80t, double than what Ukrainian roads support.

Russia cannot destroy the remaining Ukrainian roads as efficiently and complete as US help can do!

The operational range of Abrams in Ukraine would be closer to its off road limit, I presume. But there is a water line about every 70km and Abrams cannot go over bridges but neither force through the stream.

British new Challengers, Leopards and French Leclercs are not far behind.

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TomB

after a fully bachmut and soledar liberation, there should be a push westwards to the line lyman-slavyansk-kramatorsk, to secure the whole donbas region. after that turn to southwest to lieberate odessa and landlink with transnistria, so than the whole job could be done before the end of this year.

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Last edited 4 months ago by TomB
The Sacred War

This is Sacred War of the Good aka Global South represented by Russia against a minority of Countries aka “Collective West” (35 countries) represented by the Neonazi nation aka Ukraine. youtube.com/watch?v=gp7BytOY0U4

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The Shitskin Cuck War

There is a typo in your gibberish. The Global Cuck War of shithole degenerate countries. Fixed!

WT Baker

What these arch neo cons ( no different then arch neo liberals since they both have the same father, Satan) say is proof of how the Synarchists operate due to the collapse of their liberal economic order over the decades of continuos entropy. “More cow bell” is a telling of the nature of the beast expressed in sophomoric rhetoric characterized by the British intelligence les counter-culture révolution. Their minds, or what little there exists, remind me of the senseless arguing of Thrasymachus.

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Holler

Selensky go hollywood as a starmupped

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