After the plane crush in Sinai, killing all 224 people on board, Egyptian and international experts investigate the probable theories why the plane crashed. There are four possible theories.
The first theory is that there was a bomb on board. On 4 November, Britain’s Foreign Secretary Philip Hammond said that there is ‘’a significant possibility that the crash was caused by an explosive device on board the aircraft’’
Lufthansa airlines among with UK and Ireland stopped flights going over Sinai.
After the crush ISIS took responsibility for the plane crush but it was considered not possible. Now an unnamed US official told the Associated Press news agency that now they consider ISIS had planted explosive device on the plane.
“A bomb is a highly possible scenario,” another US official told the AFP news agency.
On Tuesday it was reported that a heat flash was detected over Sinai at the time of the crush and later it was confirmed by Russian officials that the plane broke up in mid-air.
Despite these facts, the investigators cannot be sure and stress that no final conclusions can be made.
The second theory, that investigators work is technical fault on board.
Even though there were claims that the pilot asked for an emergency landing, the Egypt’s Civil Aviation Minister Hossam Kamal said there had been no sign of any problems on board the flight.
In Russia, the widow of the plane’s co-pilot, Sergei Trukhachev, told NTV her husband had complained the plane’s condition “left much to be desired” during a telephone call before the flight left Sharm el-Sheikh.
But according to the Kogalymavia airline the 18-year old plane was in perfect condition, and there were no reports that the airplane had faults. He also said that the checks done before the flight didn’t show any errors on the plane.
According to the Aviation Safety Network, the plane sustained a tail strike while landing in Cairo in 2001. That took three months to repair.
The botched repair of a tail strike caused Japan Airlines Flight 123 to crash in 1985, the worst single-aircraft accident in history, in which 520 of 524 on board were killed.
But Kogalymavia officials insist that the plane was repaired completely and there is no doubt that the plane was safe.
Another theory that might be possible is a human error. Even though, there is no proof in order to support this theory, there are yet analysis and investigation to be made in order to exclude this theory. The pilot, Valery Nemov, had more than 12,000 hours of experience in the air, including 3,860 hours in A32s according to the airline. But stull the ‘’black boxes’’ have not been investigated fully and after this only the investigators will be able to tell whether a decision made by the flight crew contributed to the crash.
According to officials, they are doing everything they can, but the black boxes are badly damaged. Egypt’s aviation ministry said “a lot of work is required in order to extract data from” the CVR.
The FDR records technical flight data, including at least five basic sets of information: pressure altitude, air speed, heading, acceleration and microphone keying (the time radio transmissions were made by the crew).
Both recorders are designed to withstand a massive impact and a fire reaching temperatures of up to 1,100C for 60 minutes.
The last possible theory so far is that Flight KGL9268 was brought down by a missile fired by Islamic State militants.
This is the theory that is considered less possible but still is investigated as possible. The jet was flying well above the maximum range of any surface-to-air missile that the jihadists are thought to possess.
Also, according to experts there is no point in ISIS risking to invite a massive international retaliation by such an action when its battle is primarily with the Egyptian state.