On March 10, SF released a video analysis titled “Saudi-Initiated All-Out Oil War Could Lead To Collapse Of Kingdom Itself“. The video provided a look at the Saudi offensive on the oil market and forecasted the escalation of the military situation in the southern part of the Arabian Peninsula.
There is no secret in the fact that the Saudi attack on Iranian and Russian oil producers was coordinated with the United States. Such actions are a part of the global geopolitical standoff and the answer was inevitable.
“…the real goal of the Saudi campaign is not only to secure larger share of the oil market and punish Moscow for its unwillingness to accept the proposed OPEC+ deal, but to deliver a powerful blow to Washington’s geopolitical opponents: Russia and Iran. Pro-Western and anti-government forces existing in both Russia and Iran would try to exploit this situation to destabilize the internal situation in the countries.
On the other hand, Saudi Arabia may soon find out that its actions have backfired. Such economic and geopolitical games amid the acute conflict with Iran, military setbacks in Yemen and the increasing regional standoff with the UAE could cost too much for the Kingdom itself.
If the oil prices fall any further and reach $20 per barrel, this will lead to unacceptable economic losses for Russia and Iran, and they could and will likely opt to use nonmarket tools of influencing the Saudi behavior. These options include the increasing support to Yemen’s Houthis with intelligence, weapons, money, and even military advisers, that will lead to the resumption of Houthi strikes on Saudi oil infrastructure.
On top of these, the Saudi leadership may suddenly find that the internal situation in the Kingdom is being worsened by large-scale protests rapidly turning into an open civil conflict.
Such a scenario is no secret for international financial analysts. On March 8, shares of Saudi state oil company Aramco slumped below their initial public offering (IPO) and closed 9.1% lower. On March 9, it continued the fall plunging another 10%. There appears to be a lack of buyers. The risks are too obvious.
At the same time, the range of possible US actions in support of Saudi Arabia in the event of such an escalation is limited by the ongoing presidential campaign. Earlier, President Donald Trump demonstrated that a US military base could become a target of direct missile strike and Washington will not order a direct military action in response. Taking into account other examples of the US current approach towards non-Israeli allies, Riyadh should not expect any real support from its American allies in this standoff.”
By March 31, Yemen’s Houthis have delivered a major power to Saudi-led forces in northwestern Yemen capturing a large part of the border with Saudi Arabia. Furthermore, they resumed missile and drone strikes on targets inside Saudi Arabia. On March 28, they employed Badir-1 artillery rockets, Zulfiqar missiles, and Qasef-2K and Samad-3 suicide drones against vital economic and military targets in the provinces of Jizan, Najran and Asir, as well as the Saudi capital, Riyadh.
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