Written by The Saker; Originally appeared at The Unz Review
Israel, Saudi Arabia Setting Preconditions For War With Hezbollah – a critical analysis
SouthFront has just released a very interesting video analysis warning about the possibility of a war involving Lebanon, Saudi Arabia and, possibility, Syria, Iran, and Israel. That, of course, also means that Russia and the US would be involved. First, please see the video here:
What I propose to do is go over the implications of such a scenario.
The context: a total AngloZionist failure on all fronts
To understand the context for these developments we first need to quickly summarize what has taken place in Syria and the rest of the Middle-East in the past few years.
The initial AngloZionist plan was to overthrow Assad and replace him with the Takfiri crazies (Daesh, al-Qaeda, al-Nusra, ISIS – call them whatever you want). Doing this would achieve the following goals:
- Bring down a strong secular Arab state along with its political structure, armed forces and security services.
- Create total chaos and horror in Syria justifying the creation of a “security zone” by Israel not only in the Golan, but further north.
- Trigger a civil war in Lebanon by unleashing the Takfiri crazies against Hezbollah.
- Let the Takfiris and Hezbollah bleed each other to death, then create a “security zone”, but this time in Lebanon.
- Prevent the creation of a Shia axis Iran-Iraq-Syria-Lebanon.
- Breakup Syria along ethnic and religious lines.
- Create a Kurdistan which could then be used against Turkey, Syria, Iraq and Iran.
- Make it possible for Israel to become the uncontested power broker in the Middle-East and forces the KSA, Qatar, Oman, Kuwait and all others to have to go to Israel for any gas or oil pipeline project.
- Gradually isolate, threaten, subvert and eventually attack Iran with a wide regional coalition of forces.
- Eliminate all center of Shia power in the Middle-East.
That was an ambitious plan, but the Israelis felt pretty confident that their US vassal-state would provide the resources needed to achieve it. And now this entire plan has collapsed due to the very high effectiveness of an informal but yet formidable alliance between Russia, Iran, Syria and Hezbollah.
To say that the Israelis are seething with rage and in a state of total panic would be an understatement. You think I am exaggerating? Then look at it from the Israeli point of view:
- The Syrian state has survived and its armed and security forces are now far more capable than they were before the war started (remember how they *almost* lost the war initially? The Syrians had to bounce back, learn some very hard lessons, but by all reports they have made tremendous improvements and while at a critical moment Iran and Hezbollah were literally “plugging holes” in the Syrian frontlines and “extinguishing fires” on local flashpoints, now the Syrians are doing a very good job of liberating large chunks of their country, including every single city in Syria).
- Not only is Syria stronger, but the Iranians and Hezbollah are all over the country now which is driving the Israelis into a state of panic and rage.
- Lebanon is rock solid, even the latest Saudi attempt to kidnap Hariri is backfiring.
- Syria will remain unitary and Kurdistan is not happening. Millions of displaced refugees are returning home.
- Israel and the US look like total idiots and, even worse, as losers with no credibility left.
This is all a disaster for the AngloZionists who now are falling back to their typical attitude when met with resistance: if we can’t control it, then let’s destroy it.
The plan: force the US to attack Iran
The following is only my speculation and nothing more. I have no way of knowing what the Axis of Kindness (US-Israel-KSA) has come up with, but I feel that I can take an educated guess. For one thing, this is nothing new. The Saudis and the other Gulf states have in the past made noises about intervening in Syria and we know that the Saudis have intervened in Bahrain and Yemen. As for the Israelis, their record of (completely illegal) military interventions is so long that we can safely assume that the Israelis will be involved in *any* ugly or evil plan to lay the region to waste. The main problem for the Saudis and the Israelis is that they have bad armies. Expensive ones – yes. High-tech ones – yes. But their problem is that their only true area of expertise is massacring defenseless civilians, that they are real experts at. But in terms of real warfare, especially against truly formidable adversaries like the Iranians or Hezbollah, the “ZioWahabis” (what a combo!) don’t stand a chance and they know it (even if they never admit it). Imagine how frustrating that must be: you basically control the US which you have turned into a vassal-state, you spent billions and billions of dollars in equipping and training your bloated armed forces, but at the end of the day the Shias are just laughing in your face. And, for some reason you cannot fathom, every time you try to “teach them a lesson”, it is you who has to crawl back home in total shame to lick our wounds and try to hush up the magnitude of your defeat. That hurts, badly. So a plan to make the Shias pay for it had to be concocted. Here is what I think it will be.
First, the goal will not be to defeat Hezbollah or Iran anywhere. For all their racist rhetoric and hubris, the Israelis know that neither they nor, even less so, the Saudis have what it would take to seriously threaten Iran, or even Hezbollah. But their plan is, I think, much cruder: to trigger a serious conflict and then force the US to intervene.
I have written many articles explaining that the US military does not have the means to win a war against Iran. And that might be the problem here: the US commanders know full well that and they are therefore doing whatever it takes to tell the Neocons “can’t do, so sorry!” (that is the only reason why a US attack on Iran has not happened yet). From an Israeli point of view, this is totally unacceptable and the solution is simple: simple force the US into a war they really don’t want. After all, who cares how many US goyim will die? As for the Iranians, the goal of a Israeli-triggered US attack on Iran would not be to defeat Iran, but only to hurt it, very very badly. That is the real goal. As far as the Israelis are concerned, not only don’t they give a damn about how many non-Jews will die (Judaic ethics teach that all non-Jews are most likely deserving to die anyway) as long as their Master Race benefits from it. Simply put: to them we are only tools, tools capable of thought, but tools nonetheless. That is also how Neocons view us, of course. In fact, I can just about imagine the glee of the Israelis seeing that the Shia and Sunni Muslims are killing each other. Throwing in a few Christians only makes it even better.
So it’s all simple: have the Saudis attack Lebanon and/or Iran, observe how they lose, then switch on the propaganda machine at full power and explain to the average TV-watching goy that Iran is a threat to the region and the aggressor here, that the Saudis are only defending themselves from Iranian aggression. And if that is not enough, they scream “oy gevalt!” in the US Congress and have the prostitutes on the Hill explain to the American people that the US must “lead the Free World” to “defend” the “only democracy in the Middle-East” against Iranian “aggression” and that the US have a “responsibility” to prevent the Iranians of “seizing the Saudi oil fields” etc. etc. etc.
It’s a win-win situation for the Israelis as long as there are not caught red-handed manipulating it all. But we can count on our beloved Ziomedia to make sure that no such “anti-Semitic” accusations are ever made, even if Israeli fingerprints are all over the place.
Moon of Alabama has just posted an interesting article entitled “Revealed – Saudis Plan To Give Up Palestine – For War On Iran” which seems plausible to me and which further corroborates my thesis that the goal is to get the US to attack Iran. Of course, the very notion that the Saudis could give up Palestine implies two outright outlandish notions: first, that the KSA has not already sold out the Palestinians many times over and, second, that the Saudis could somehow “deliver” Palestine to the Zionist Entity. Still, I recommend the reading of this article which contains a lot of very interesting revelations about the true nature and intentions of the Saudis regime.
As for the Israelis, they are offering to share intelligence (read: targeting data) with the Saudis. How touching it is to see these two medieval, backward and generally evil regimes are so willing to work together. At least they are both now showing their true, ugly, faces!
The Iranians really have no good options here. The least bad option is to do what Putin is doing in the Donbass: remain externally passive at the risk of having the not too gifted accuse you of caving in. Regardless, if your enemy’s plan is not to win, but to lose, then refusing to engage him makes perfectly good sense, at least on the strategic level and temporarily.
I am not suggesting that the Iranians not fight back on a tactical level. Even the Russian Task Force in Syria has official orders to defend itself if attacked. I am talking at a strategic level. Basically, tempting as it might be, the Iranians have to refrain from striking back at Saudi Arabia or itself. Ditto for Israel. In a paradoxical way, Iran cannot do what Hezbollah did in 2006 and the reason for that is very simple: by the time the first Hezbollah missiles began raining down on Israel the Israelis had already reached their highest level of escalation (their usual vicious campaign to make civilians pay). But in the case of Iran, the AngloZionist Empire could step up the level of violence way beyond what the Israelis and the Saudis could ever do by themselves. The combined power of Israel and the Saudis is dwarfed by the kind of firepower the US (CENTCOM+NATO) could unleash against Iran and it is therefore crucial that the Iranians not give the US Americans any pretext to officially join the attack. Instead of destroying the regime in Riyadh the Iranians should let, or even help, the regime in Riyadh destroy itself. I think that the Saudis have even less staying power than the US or the Israelis, so there is no need to force a rapid outcome of any war between Iran and the KSA.
Needless to say, if the AngloZionist Empire joins in and unleashes its full military might against Iran, something which I consider a very real possibility, then all bets are off and Iran should, and will, retaliate with a full set of symmetrical and asymmetrical responses, including strikes against Israel and the Saudis, and even strikes against CENTCOM bases in the entire region. However, such a situation would have catastrophic consequences for Iran and should therefore be avoided if at all possible.
At the end of the day the best hope the world has is that a US American patriot will see through this rather obvious plot to “wag the dog” and tell the ZioWahabis “not on my watch” like Admiral Fallon did in 2007 (will that honorable man ever get the historical recognition he deserves, say a Nobel Peace Prize? Possibly never in this world, but in the judgment of God he shall be called a “son of God” (Matt 5:9)). By themselves the Israelis and the Saudi are just a gang of medieval thugs which even Hezbollah can terrify and force to run. Their only real power is the power they have in Congress and the US Ziomedia: the power of corruption, the ability to lie, deceive and betray. I know for a fact that there are many US officers on all levels in the US armed forces which see straight through these Zionist smokescreen and whose loyalty is to the United State and not to the nasty little Zionist Entity in Palestine. I have studied and worked with such patriots and there are plenty of them in the Saker Community today. I am not suggesting that we should count on top US commanders refusing to execute a Presidential order (like this article is suggesting). The truth is that anybody who has served in the military, especially at a high command level (Pentagon, CENTCOM), knows that there are all sorts of creative ways to make sure that something does not happen. Finally, I have not lost all hope that Trump could do the right thing. Yes, he is a weak man, yes, he is now cornered and has no allies left, but when faced with the horrendous consequences of a attack on Iran he still might say “no” and order his staff to come up with some other plan. Trump might also realize that refusing to wage war on Iran would be his best revenge against those who have smeared him and who are now apparently trying to impeach him.
Conclusion: will the attack happen?
In short, probably yes. The simple truth is that the nutcase regimes in power in Israel and Saudi Arabia are cornered and desperate. The rise in power of Iran over the past decade has been immense and irresistible. The recent failure of the ZioWahabis to bring even tiny Qatar to heel is indicative of the tremendous erosion in power and credibility these wacko regimes have suffered. I believe that the recent trips by Bibi Netanyahu and even the Saudi King to Moscow are all part of an effort on the part of the ZioWhabis to gauge the Russian response to an attack on Iran.
[Sidebar: While we will never know what was said behind closed doors, my guess is that Putin indicated in clear terms to the ZioWahabis that Russia will not step aside and let them strike at Iran. In truth, Russia has very limited options. Unless Russian personnel are directly attacked, Russia cannot just go to war in a overt and formal way, that would be way too dangerous, especially against the US. But Russia could immensely (and very rapidly) strengthen Iranian air defense capabilities by deploying her aircraft (A-50, MiG-31s, in Iran or even by flying them in from Russia to conduct surveillance flights. Russia can provide the Iranians with intelligence far beyond anything the Iranians could collect themselves. Likewise, the Russians could quietly deploy some of their electronic warfare systems to key locations in Iran. The US Americans would rapidly detect all this, but Russia would still have a “plausible deniability” on a political level. Finally, the Russians could do for Iran what they have done for Syria and integrate all the Iranian and Russian air defense capabilities into a single network thereby immensely improving the capabilities of the currently rather modest, but rapidly improving, Iranian air defense capabilities.]
At this moment in time it is pretty clear that an attack on Iran is being prepared and such an attack is possible or even likely. But it is not a done deal yet. For one thing the Saudis and Israelis have a long history of empty threats and both regimes love posturing and grandstanding. And for all their bravado they do realize that Iran is a formidable and very sophisticated adversary. They probably also remember what happened when the Iraqis, with the full help and support from the US, the Soviet Union, France, Britain and pretty much everybody else attacked Iran when Iran was at its weakest. Following a long and horrible war, the Iranians are now stronger than ever, Saddam is dead and the Iranians are more or less in control of Iraq. Iran is simply not a good country to attack, especially with a lack of a clear vision of what “victory” constitutes. So you ought to be crazy to attack Iran. The problem is, of course, that the Saudis and the Israelis are crazy, they have proved that many times over. So our best hopes is that they might be just “crazy”, but not “that crazy”. Not much of a hope, but that’s the best we got.