The Saker: 2018 – War Or No War?

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Written by The Saker; Originally appeared at The Unz Review

If the first months of 2017 were a time of great hopes following the historical defeat of Hillary Clinton, the year is ending in a sombre, almost menacing manner.  Not only has the swamp easily, quickly and totally drowned Trump, but the AngloZionist Empire is reeling from its humiliating defeat in Syria and the Neocons are now treating our entire planet to a never ending barrage of threats.  Furthermore, the Trump Administration now has released a National Security Strategy which clearly show that the Empire is in “full paranoid” mode.  It is plainly obvious that the Neocons are now back in total control of the White House, Congress and the US corporate media.  Okay, maybe things are still not quite as bad as if Hillary had been elected, but they are bad enough to ask whether a major war is now inevitable next year.

The Saker: 2018 – War Or No War?

Click to see the full-size image

If we go by their rhetoric, the Neocons have all the following countries in their sights:

  1. Afghanistan (massive surge already promised)
  2. Syria (threats of a US-Israeli-KSA attack; attack on Iranian and Hezbollah forces in Syria)
  3. Russia (disconnecting from SWIFT; stealing Russian assets in the USA; attack on Russian forces in Syria)
  4. Iran (renege on nuclear deal, attack Iranian forces in Syria)
  5. The Donbass (support for a full scale Ukronazi attack against Novorussia)
  6. DPRK (direct and overt military aggression; aerial and naval blockade)
  7. Venezuela (military intervention “in defense of democracy, human right, freedom and civilization”)

There are, of course, many more countries currently threatened by the USA to various degrees, but the seven above are all good candidates for US aggression.

Let me immediately say here that listing pragmatic arguments against such aggressions is, at this point in time, probably futile.  If anything, the recent disaster triggered by the US recognition of Jerusalem clearly proves that the USA is run by people as least as stupid and ignorant as they are evil and arrogant, possibly even more so.  The sad reality we now live in is one where a nuclear superpower lack the minimal intelligence needed to act in defense of its own national security interests, and that is really frightening.

Last week I took a look at the mindset of what I called the “ideological drone“.  If we now look at the mindset of the US national security establishment we will immediately notice that is is almost the exact same as the one of the ideological drone.  The biggest difference between them might be that the ideological drone assumes that his/her leaders are sane and most honest people, whereas those in the elites not only know that they are total hypocrites and liars, but they actually see this as a sign superiority: the drones believes in his/her ideology, but his rules believe in absolutely nothing.

Take the example of Syria.  All the US decision makers are fully aware of the following facts:

  1. Daesh/ISIS/al-Nusra/etc is their creation and they tried everything to save these terrorists.
  2. The joint Russian-Iranian-Hezbollah effort defeated Daesh/ISIS/al-Nusra/etc in-spite of AngloZionist support and attacks in Syrian forces.
  3. The AngloZionist forces are in Syria completely illegally.

Yet none of that prevents them from claiming that they, not Russia, defeated Daesh/ISIS/al-Nusra/etc.  This is absolutely amazing, think of it – the entire planet knows full well what really took place in Syria, but Uncle Sam degrees that black is white, water is dry and what is true is false.  And the most amazing thing is that they know that everybody knows, yet they don’t care one bit.  Why?  Because they profoundly believe in four fundamental things:

  1. We can buy anybody
  2. Those we cannot buy, we bully
  3. Those we cannot bully we kill
  4. Nothing can happen to us, we live in total impunity not matter what we do

Besides people with intelligence there is another type of people which now has completely disappeared from the US national security establishment: people with honor/courage/integrity.  Let’s take a perfect example: Tillerson.

There is no way we can make the argument that Tillerson is an idiot. The man has proven many times over that he is intelligent and quite talented.  And yet, he is Nikki Haley’s doormat.  Nikki Haley – there is the real imbecile!  But not Tillerson.  Yet Tillerson lack the basic honor/courage/integrity to demand that this terminal imbecile be immediately fired or, if that does not happen, to leave and slam the door really loud.  Nope, the man just sits there and takes humiliation after humiliation.  Oh sure, he will probably resign soon, but when his resignation comes it will have no value, it will be a non-event, just the sad and pathetic conclusion to a completely failed stint as Secretary of State.

The same goes for the US military: not one single officer has found in himself/herself to resign to protest the fact that the USA is deeply in bed with those who are responsible, at least according to the official conspiracy theory, for 9/11.  Nope, in fact US special forces are working with al-Qaeda types day in and day out and not a single one of these “patriots” has the honor/courage/integrity to go public about it.

Imbeciles and cowards.  I also happen to think that they are traitors to their country and their people.  Patriots they are not.

Delusional imbeciles giving orders and dishonorable cowards mindlessly executing them.  That is the setup we are dealing with.  As Trump would tweet “not good”.

Alas, this is also a very hard combo to deter or to try to reason with.

And yet, somewhere, to some degree, these guys must know that he odds are not in their favor.  For one thing, an endless stream of military defeats and political embarrassments ought to strongly suggest to them that inaction is generally preferable to action, especially for clueless people.  Furthermore, one simple way to look at risks is to say that risks are a factor of probability times consequences: R = P x C.

I don’t think that US decision-makers actually formally think that way, but on a gut level this is rather straightforward, even for ideological drone types.  If we assume that this is the case, we can now revisit our 7 countries listed above as seen by Neocon decision makers (not me! I already outlined how I saw the risks of attacking these countries in this article written this summer):

The Saker: 2018 – War Or No War?

Click to see the full-size image

A couple of points here:

Afghanistan: is rather straightforward and least controversial: there will be a surge in Afghanistan, it will result in mode body bags, it will achieve nothing cost a shitload and nobody cares.

Syria: very tempting, but the big risk is this: that US forces will find themselves face to face with Iranian and Hezbollah forces who have been dreaming about this day for decades and who will make maximal political use of the US forces they will capture or kill.  Frankly, to engage either the Iranians or Hezbollah is a very scary option.  Ask the Israelis :-)

Russia option 1: rumors that the US would disconnect Russia from SWIFT or steal (that is politely called “freeze”) Russian assets and funds in the USA have been going in for a long time already. And the Russians have been making all sorts of menacing noises about this, but all of them very vague which tells me that Russia might not have any good retaliatory options and that this time around the hot air is blowing from Moscow.  Of course, Putin is a unpredictable master strategist and the folks around him are very, very smart.  They might hold something up their sleeve which I am not aware of but I strongly suspect that, unlike me,  the US intelligence community must be fully aware of what this might be.  I am not an economist and there is much I don’t know here, I therefore assessed the risk as “unknown” for me.

Russia option 2: the reaction of Russia to the shooting down by Turkey of a SU-24 in 2015 might well have given the US politicians and commanders that they could do the same and get away with it.  In truth, they might be right.  But they might also be wrong.  The big difference with the case of the SU-24 is that Russia has formidable air-defenses deployed in Syria which present a major threat for US forces.  Furthermore, if a Russian aircraft is under attack and the Russians reply by firing a volley of ground-to-air missiles, what would the US do – attack a Russian S-400 battery?  The USA is also in a tricky situation in an air-to-air confrontation.  While the F-22 is an excellent air superiority fighter it has one huge weakness: it is designed to engage its adversaries from a long range and to shoot first, before it is detected (I mention only the F-22 here because it is the only US aircraft capable of challenging the Su-30SM/Su-35).  But if the rules of engagement say that before firing at a Russian aircraft the F-22 has to issue a clear warning or if the engagement happens at medium to short range distances, then the F-22 is at a big disadvantage, especially against a Su-30SM or Su-35.  Another major weakness of the F-22 is that, unlike the Su-30/Su-35, it does not have a real electronic warfare suite (the F-22’s INEWS does not really qualify).  In plain English this means that the F-22 was designed to maximize it’s low radar cross section but at a cost of all other aspects of aerial warfare (radar power, hypermaneuverability, electronic warfare, passive engagement, etc.).  This all gets very technical and complicated very fast, but I think that we can agree that the Neocons are unlikely to be very impressed by the risks posed by Russian forces in Syria and that they will likely feel that they can punch the russkies in the nose and that these russkies will have to take it.  Local US commanders might feel otherwise, but that is also entirely irrelevant.  Still, I place the risk here at ‘medium’ even if, potentially, this could lead to a catastrophic thermonuclear war because I don’t think that the Neocons believe that the Russians will escalate too much (who starts WWIII over one shot down aircraft anyway, right?!).  Think of it: if you were the commander of the Russian task force in Syria, what would you do if the US shot down on of your aircraft (remember, you assume that you are a responsible and intelligent commander, not a flag-waving delusional maniac)?

What will not stop is the full-spectrum demonization of Russia, thus the relationship between the two countries will further deteriorate.  Putin’s Russia is a kind of Mordor which represents all evil and stands behind all evil.  Denouncing and openly hating Russia has now become a form of virtue-signaling.  Since the entire US political elites have endorsed this phobia, it is exceedingly unlikely to change in the foreseeable future.

Iran: Trump has announced that he wants out of the deal and while technically and legally he cannot do that, it’s not like he will care one bit.  The USA has long given up any pretense at respecting any kind of law, including international law.  Also, since Trump is clearly Israel’s shabbos-goy I think that we can safely assume that this will happen.

Donbass: will the Ukronazis finally attack?  Well, they have been for many months already!  Not only did they never stop shelling the Donbass, but they have this new “frog-jump” (pseudo) strategy which consists of moving in military forces in the neutral zone, seize an undefended town and then declare a major victory against Russia.  They have also been re-arming, re-organizing, re-grouping and otherwise bolstering their forces in the East.  As a result, the Urkonazis have at least 3:1 advantage against the Novorussians.  However, we should not look at this from the Ukronazi or Novorussian point of view.  Instead we should look at it from the Neocon point of view:

The Saker: 2018 – War Or No War?

Click to see the full-size image

The way I see it, in all three cases the AngloZionist prevail though clearly option #2 is the worst possible outcome and option #3 is the best one.  In truth, the AngloZionists have very little to lose in a Ukronazi attack on Novorussia.  Not so the Ukrainian people, of course.  Right now the USA and several European countries are shipping various types of weapons to the Ukronazis.  That is really a non-news since they have been doing that for years already.  Furthermore, western made weapons won’t make any difference, at least from a military point of view, if only because it will always be much easier for Russia to send more weapons in any category.  The real difference is a political one: shipping “lethal weapons” (as if some weapons were not lethal!) is simply a green light to go on the attack.  Let’s hope that the Urkonazis will be busy fighting each other and that their previous humiliating defeat will deter them from trying again, but I consider a full-scale Urkonazi attack on the Donbass as quite likely.

DPRK:  that is the big unknown here.  With some opponents, you know for an absolute fact that their people will fight down to the very last man if needed (Iranians, Russians, Hezbollah).  But authoritarian regimes tend to have a pretty low breaking point unless, of course, they convince their own people that they are not fighting for a specific political regime, but for their country.  I think that nobody knows for sure what the North Koreans will do if attacked, but I see no sign to simply assume that the North Koreans won’t fight.  From what I hear, the memories of the ruthless attacks against North Koreans by US forces during the previous war on the Korean Peninsula are still very very real.  Here is what an intelligence officer in the region wrote to me recently:

The Trump Administration’s bluster is pathetic. If this were a movie, and not real life, it would be funny (it’s still funny, but being in *******, I don’t fully appreciate it). The sad thing is that central casting couldn’t create a better foil for NK propaganda: in every way, including physically, he fits their caricature of the evil, imperial arch-capitalist Yankee businessman. It’d be like if Hitler came back to life and off-handedly threatened to destroy the US every other day (and had the capability to do so).

If this specialist is correct, and I have no reason to believe that he is not, then it is quite reasonable to assume that the possible dislike the North Korean people might have for their ruling elites is dwarfed by their hatred for the United States.

[Sidebar: he also had some interesting comments about my own assessment of the consequences of a war on the Korean Peninsula.  Here is what he wrote to me:

Japan is a major target, for a number of reasons. The biggest is that there are a lot of US bases there that would be used to bring-in additional US troops/direct the war, but there’s also the fact that North Korea (and most South Koreans, actually), straight-up hates Japan. I won’t go into a history lesson (which you probably already know), but there is no love lost.  Even if the war was confined to the Peninsula, which it won’t be, the global economy would take a major hit, because a ridiculous amount of global supply chain runs through South Korea (which on its own, bounces between the 15th and 10th largest economy in the world). Off the top of my head, I think Incheon (just west of Seoul) is the busiest airport in at least the region – it’s a major international hub, and Busan and Incheon are some of the busiest ports in the world – I want to say Busan is top 5, even busier than the Japanese ports. All the Chinese goods that go to America flow through the Sea of Japan – those will have to be re-routed. And a lot of the components that go in fancy electronics are actually made in SK, prior to final assembly in China – so that will be an issue. So even if we’re the only ones to go down, it’ll be bad news for the global economy.  Your assessment of the artillery and special forces threat mirrors mine. One of the things I always thought was funny was how people disparage “World War 2 artillery.” As a whole, “World War 2 artillery” has probably killed more people than any weapon system in modern history (unless you say something really general like “knife” or “gun”). It’s not like you’ll be any less dead if your house is hit with a 152 as opposed to a J-DAM.]

And here is the deal, if you attack a small and defenseless country you can basically ignore the consequences of making the wrong guess, but when dealing with a country like the DPRK this is a miscalculation which no sane politician or military commander would ever take the risk of making.  But delusional imbeciles giving and dishonorable cowards – would either one of them show the kind of caution needed when dealing with such a major threat?!  I frankly don’t think so.  In fact, I see no reason to believe that at all.  Remember the “cakewalk in Iraq”?  This term, coined by one of my former teachers at SAIS, Ken Adelman, is a wonderful illustration of the Neocon mindest: pure ideology and to hell with caution.  We all know that this “cakewalk” ended up costing the Iraqi and American people: well over one million deaths for the former, well over five trillion dollars for the latter.  Some cakewalk indeed…  The truth is that at this point nobody knows what the outcome of a US attack on the DPRK might be, not even the North Koreans.  Will that be enough to deter the delusional imbeciles giving and dishonorable cowards currently at the helm of the Empire?  You tell me!

Venezuela: as much hatred as their is for Venezuela in the US elites, this country is not a lucrative target or, let me rephrase that, it is a great target to subvert but probably not a good one to intervene in.  Violence in Venezuela is directly in the US interests but a direct military intervention is probably not.  My contacts tell me that the Venezuelan military is an unholy (and rather corrupt) mess, but they also tell me that the popular will to resist the “Yankees” is so strong that a any military intervention will immediately trigger an ugly guerrilla war (not to mention a political backlash in the rest of Latin America).  The truth is the US probably has the means to militarily intervene in Venezuela, but they also have much better options.

Now let’s sum this all up.

The chances are high that in 2018 the USA will

  • Escalate the war in Afghanistan
  • Renege on the nuclear deal with Iran
  • Back an Ukronazi attack on Novorussia

It is quite possible that the USA will also

  • Shoot down a Russian aircraft over Syria

I find it unlikely that the USA will

  • Invade Syria
  • Invade Venezuela

I am unable to evaluate whether the USA will:

  • Disconnect Russia from SWIFT or seize Russian assets
  • Attack the DPRK

Frankly, I am not very confident about this attempt as analyzing the possible developments in 2018.  All my education has always been based  on a crucial central assumption: the other guy is rational.  That is a huge assumption to make, but one which was fundamentally true during the Cold War.  Today I find myself inclined to think that psychologists are probably better suited to make predictions about the actions of the rulers of the AngloZionist Empire than military analysts.  Furthermore, history shows us that the combination of delusional imbeciles and dishonorable cowards is what typically brings down empires, we saw a very good example of that with the collapse of the Soviet Empire.

With the latest Trump fiasco I have personally given up any hope of ever seeing a US President capable of making a positive contribution to the welfare of the people of the USA or the rest of the planet.  The burden now is clearly on Russia and China to do everything they can to try to stop the USA from launching even more catastrophic and deeply immoral wars.  That is a very, very difficult task and I frankly don’t know if they can do it.  I hope so.  That is the best I can say.

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  • Zainab Ali

    there is always hope for good to win over the evil – paving the war for the coming of imam mahdi and prophet jesus christ is on going – rsistance fighters are blazing the trail – unstoppable

    • Ronald

      Good is unstoppable over evil , hope is not required .

      • 888mladen .

        In moral sphere not in military. Good can never use the same methods evil does.

        • Ronald

          Zainab Ali , whom I was addressing was speaking from the moral sphere . You are correct , evil has limited resources , while the Eternal is unlimited .

    • Adrian Milton

      Zainab, in this article, YOU would be classed as the delusional imbecile… Muslims are patsies for the Anglo-Zionist NWO, willing patsies at that. Smh

      • Terra Cotta Woolpuller

        The problem with your observation is you say more about your imbecilic attitude rather than anything else. Truth is the delusional NWO has been around a for millenniums and yet their progress is always halted and everything they did undone and rescinded.People like you need to shake their head at how stupid their comments truly are, as the NWO are not Anglo-Zionists and ascribe to now groups or religion.

        That’s why you seem like the Truly Real PATSY!

  • RGtz98

    About the Russian aircraft I doubt it since really most of the fighting has stopped near the Euphrates and will now be centered around Golan heights , and Idlib area. Thus probing more difficult to ‘justify’ the downing. Whilst for Ukraine most likely something will happen unless Russia or someone else secretly does a counter-coup (Seen the high instability in Kiev lately) but will surely lead to a mess but a higher chance for Novorussia to expand in the chaos but I doubt that will happen.

    • as

      PMU and some of direct element of Iranian Revolution Guards are already eyeing Raqqa as their main targets in the near future. That only leaves Assad approval to go ahead.

      • Joe

        That would be the final decision after Sochi.

        If they can get the Kurds to come to their senses of non greed, all will be solved without firing a single shot and US will have no excuse to stay.

        If not it would depend on how Russia/US will react to battle between Kurds and Syria .

  • Ivan Freely

    “I find it unlikely that the USA will…Invade Syria”

    The US already invaded Syria. The Russians already released satellite photos of US FOBs scattered inside of Syria.

    • as

      As in full scale military operations against Assad forces. I believe when the SDF pounded by SAA. That really depending on Russian reaction though.

      • Janis

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    • US dont have enough force to openly invade syria.. they are stuck in other places with this global US commitment ..

      • Tom Tom

        stuck in other places with the goal to destroy them by the globalists, many of whom are American.

  • Barba_Papa

    I find the whole Tillerson/Nicky Hailey dynamic to be very reminiscent of that of Colin Powell/Condaleeza Rice in the previous Bush government. With yet another ignorant woman in the ideological driver seat and yet another foreign secretary being sidelined as he did not have the president’s ear. And being too loyal for his own good. Although TIllerson so far seems to have had the good smarts to leave the cringing UN presentations to Hailey.

  • alejoeisabel

    You did not mention the military maneuvers of the US/Colombia/Brazil on the Brazil/Venezuela/Colombia border area.

    • Jerry Hamilton

      Or their activity in Africa

      • javier

        “There are, of course, many more countries currently threatened by the
        USA to various degrees, but the seven above are all good candidates for
        US aggression.”

    • Daniel Castro

      Well, if there is going to be trouble on the aazon region of course we are going to be prepared,remember that Maduro already threatened us some time ago… Well, it was laughable, but military take these things seriously.

    • Considering how vassal-like Colombia and Brazil are vis-a-vis the US, the approach will probably be those two countries doing America’s dirty job. This will also fill the pretension that it is a Latin American action.

  • John Mason

    In regards to Donbass and the Ukronazis the problem can be solved, considering that it was Germany and the UK with the US that instigated the coupe. Russia needs to make it clear to Germany UK and France that any attack on Donbass that will involve Russia then they will be eliminated and totally destroyed. Given that option they will either force the US/NATO to retreat and/or enforce the Minsk agreements. Destroying those countries will also make the US/NATO utterly defenseless.
    That is what I would do if I was Putin, threaten to destroy the supporting nations.

  • Lena Jones

    Mr. Saker, you didn’t account for the war coming to the Holy Land next year.
    Here’ an article that analyzes the current declining status of Empire:
    https://platosguns.com/2017/12/24/empire-of-gunpowder-and-glass/

    Nothing will shut up Empire except the bombardment of tel aviv to a smokey ruin. It’s where DC gets all their war instructions from, after all.

  • paul ( original )

    Whatever conflict the usa gets involved with the only outcome I wish to see
    is that the usa is completely smashed. I know they consider
    themselves the exceptional and indispensable nation that can not be
    defeated, but what’s coming to them is a damn good beating. They may
    have a lot of hardware but they don’t have the men.

    • Tommy Jensen
      • paul ( original )

        Look like wimps to me. But hey they can fight under the rainbow flag and
        be trannies in their spare time.

      • Valerianus Maximus
      • Joe

        Tommy Jensen
        Do you seriously think these guys can fight without absolute air cover?

        Now even if they have complete air cover , can they take on fighters like Hezbollah or Iranians ? Air power can only do so much nothing more.

        These newbies would be no match for battle hardened Syrian /Hez/Iranian soldiers.

        So my take is that , once the Kurds come to their senses and join Assad, these soldiers will leave to save themselves for sure.
        These reasons are soooo many ….

      • 888mladen .

        I see only hard and unhappy faces.

    • Raptar Driver

      “a damn good beating” is the only thing that will save this world but who will step up?

      • paul ( original )

        There are candidates but may be they will beat themselves up.

  • Tommy Jensen

    On one hand their may be a war in 2018, on the other hand there may not be a war. All I can say is that this is my assumption of them and not their assumption of me!

    If they really will do this, then the others will also do something. What something they will do depend on what they did and intend to do after that and then what they do after forward.

    I was hoping for the casino owner Trump, but after one year I discovered that he in fact was a casino owner and that the casino had taken over him.
    After that hope, I am hoping for China and Russia maybe could do it. Maybe they can do it, maybe they can not.
    It all depends on what they do and what the other side do.

    All in all I can say is that we should wait and see what happen on the other side in 2018. It could go up, it could go down, it could go to the right, it could go to the left. It could go to the north, it could go to the south.
    At least we can say that!

    Happy New Year 2018 to all of you guys.

    • BMWA1

      You are going pretty far out on a pretty rickety limb, are you sure you don’t want to qualify your bold, if not precipitously definitive remarks?

      • Tommy Jensen

        My interpretation of Saker´s article.

  • Mikronos

    Let’s ask God to send the unexpected. ‘Surprises’ have stopped them every time.

  • Raptar Driver

    “ Uncle Sam degrees that black is white, water is dry and what is true is false. And the most amazing thing is that they know that everybody knows, yet they don’t care one bit.”

    It is amazing how many Americans I have known who act exactly like this, it is in the American character to be a bold faced liar; even when caught red handed with irrefutable proof the idiot continues in the charade. We are blaming the elites for what is in reality common American characteristics, we all need to understand that there is no saving the core, it is rotten and everything must go except for a remnant

    • Hide Behind

      Your statement “We are blaming the elites….. is dead on the mark, but where will come tose who decide upon a remnant.
      In over 140 nations US military has groups who profit and do so by following US orders
      Not only that but some 40 Euro, Central Asians Central annd South American nations peoples also aid America’s Empire.
      Human nature is what it is and to blame Americans who benefit by luxurious lifestyles and home security, no different than Euros who intellectually talk of superiority, seek the same.

      • Raptar Driver

        No one decides but God or if you don’t know Him then time & chance, let the chips fall where they may. I cannot be part of this remnant, I will bring the sickness to others.

    • Terra Cotta Woolpuller

      The part where “Uncle Sam degrees that black is white , should read “decrees that black is white or decrees the degrees that black is white”, which would give even a more perplexing meaning.

  • Starlight

    The Saker… where does he live? Florida, USA. What does half of his blog consist of- him whining about the terrible suffering of him and his family when the weather gets bad or he gets the flu (no joke)- that or asking for money to run a blog that costs pennies.

    Who does he ban- anyone who tries to highlight the suffering of ordianry people in Syria or East Ukraine. You see he needs his readers to have ZERO empathy for the victims of conflict.

    Saker’s biggest message of the last few years is that Putin must do NOTHING to end the civil war in Ukraine. To this end he sold the LIE that sanctions on Russia would be over in months- then that they don’t even matter. Instead sanctions are spiralling out of control, having created a Cold War WORSE than the first one, and creating the advancing circumstances for a hot war.

    Sorry, Saker is what is known as ‘controlled opposition’. Yes his blog has some good stuff- and a LOT of very naive or plain wrong stuff. The former is used to sell the later.

    His so-called ‘analysis’ is, frankly, a joke. And his extreme religious position, together with his protection of a knot of obvious zionist well-poisoning commentors, is very troubling.

    I appreciate his blog promotes the work of Southfront- but I’d also argue he does this to partially control the direction of Southfront editorial comment.

    Intelligent people who bother to look know that things are going VERY bad with the world. The leaders of the West, serving Tony Blair’s demonic agenda perfectly (see the fabian movement of the UK- same as ingSOC in 1984). China will only act externally if Russia partners it, and despite constant asking, Putin refuses.

    Remember Blair’s Kosovo war- the one where Blair bombed the chinese embassy in Serbia, cos the CHINESE were the ones helping the Serbs while Russia refused to do anything?

    Putin’s ‘genius’ is in selling s-400 air defense systems to the Deep State vassals like Saudi Arabia and Turkey- so they’ll be more likely to back a war on Iran (and Lebanon). Putin, in senile thinking, thinks being servile to pure assets of the West, like Israel, Egypt, Turkey and Saudi Arabia, Russia can build ‘influence’ in the region. Instead he just helps the West seem even more ‘BOSS’ in the eyes of regional players.

    When Saker screamed that Putin must NOT invade Ukraine (so Saker’s horrid civil war there would be eternal), he claimed that such a spineless move would serve world peace. Can you believe this. Not invading Ukraine set the whole series of dominoes falling TOWARD world war, as Deep State leaders were able to state to important underlings that this proved the WEAKNESS of Russia.

    Now Trump is gagging for a major war- any major war. His moves in Korea and Palestine are all attempts to kick-start one. But the Deep State only wants one major war now- the war on Iran. True, lesser US generals think a war is coming in the Far East- but this would be a disaster for the Deep State, and Humanity. A war that would ruin the world economy, kill tens of millions, but leave the world otherwise in one piece. And what would likely follow would be a new world order that rejected the Deep State just as post WW2 facism was mostly rejected. The Deep State does NOT want a war around N Korea under any circumstances.

    When the West attcaked Serbia, then Iraq, then Libya, then Syria, what each atrocity had in common was the relative innocence of each victim at the time. Major wars with laughable motivation. So the fact that Iran has done NOTHING wrong doesn’t protect Iran in the slightest.

    The ONLY problem posed by Iran is the fear other regional players have of Iran’s missile capabilities. An Iran war would sacrifice most of the greater region. All those tallest buildings in the world would burn. Imagine that sight. The Deep State doesn’t care about that- the world now gets its oil and gas from other places as well- losing Middle East productions for a year or so wouldn’t be a problem.

    But the regional players aren’t exactly volunteering to be the turkey’s who look forward to christmas. The palace coup in KSA, for instance, was designed to overcome resistance there to the Iran war- and the play just isn’t working- not least cos Iran keeps the Yemen war hot.

    But the Deep State cares not about individual plays. It keeps its eye on the ball- war on Iran. So Deep State agents will do everything they can to take YOUR eye of this ball, and claim war with Iran is off the table. And the Iran war will be NUCLEAR (small warheads, not the city destroying ones)- which is why The Saker works so hard to deny this. But all across the net, the GCHQ and NSA are placing articles telling the sheeple that nuclear war is actually a GOOD thing, and that the stories of ruination are SF lies. The lead story promoted by Rose’s zionist DIGG over Xmas, for instance, said the effects of nuclear war had been completely misreprersented, and that nuclear war is BETTER than conventional war.

    • Raptar Driver

      Agreed, Putin is also ‘controlled opposition’ the ultimate Ace in the hole.

      • John Brown

        No proof Putin is also ‘controlled opposition yet, unless you can post some here. Of course anything is possible as it turned out Hitler was stooge Zionist of the Rothchilds creating Israel etc, but no Putin actions show that yet.

        • Raptar Driver

          I have no proof and I hope there is no such proof, I say this with trepidation. You are right in that I made a statement like fact when it is my nervous opinion.

    • John Brown

      Yes the Saker is either a Shabbas Goy or a racist, supremacist, genocidal Jew.

    • nesa

      I mostly agree with you. However, during the war in the Balkans,
      Russians did everything they could against Serbs including politically in the
      UN and militarily arming Serbian opponents. Truth to be said the Iranians
      themselves didn’t have any problems cooperating with Americans either in order to
      bring in jihadis as well as the weapons to their Muslim brethren in Bosnia.

      • 888mladen .

        What did they do to Serbia? Under the presure and scaremongering of Yevgeny Primakov who was an envoy of RU oligarchs Slobodan Milosevic and his government ended the war and signed the treaty with US and NATO witch was in essence capitulation at the moment when US NATO have run out of options to win the war against Serbia. Later on Pusin and Lavrov sent Slobodan Milisevic to the kangaroo court in Hague for defending his people against NATO aggression which was the one of most blatant violations of the international law in modern history.

    • anyone who directly attack Saker and not the article have certain agenda to smear saker.

      saker is just a man , and you tried to smear him as if he is more than just an analyst..

  • Daniel Castro

    “Afghanistan (massive surge already promised)”

    This is just waste of energy… who they are fighting? Taliban… it’s just a regional militia with no allies and USA is fighting them for decades with no prospect of victory. Let USA waste troops and money there, this will only break the empire earlier.

    “Syria (threats of a US-Israeli-KSA attack; attack on Iranian and Hezbollah forces in Syria)”

    At this point if they do that they fall on Iran’s trap and will end up losing everything, including Iraq.

    “Russia (disconnecting from SWIFT; stealing Russian assets in the USA; attack on Russian forces in Syria)”

    Russia is already prepared for that, and if they do that they are only making their own system irrelevant and making way for the establishment of the russia-china eastern block.

    “Iran (renege on nuclear deal, attack Iranian forces in Syria)”

    So Iran starts developing nuclear tech again, force Iran into China’s esphere of influence stregthening the eastern block.

    “The Donbass (support for a full scale Ukronazi attack against Novorussia)”

    Giving ground for russian intervention, even more with more sanctions against Russia she won’t have nothing to lose, this will be the downfall of Ukrops.

    “DPRK (direct and overt military aggression; aerial and naval blockade)”

    World War 3.

    “Venezuela (military intervention “in defense of democracy, human right, freedom and civilization”)”

    Seriously? No, USA don’t need to do anything because Maduro’s bolivarianist governemnt is self defeating, and even if USA chooses to attack them it will be easy win because too much people in Venezuela want the end of that dysfunctional dicatatorship who can’t feed its own people even sitting over huge reserves of oil on a tropical paradise. Let’s acknowledge something here folks, rulers of Venezuela are worst than Saudi Arabia, bolivarianism is corruption and misery, and Venezuela makes no difference, they already seel their oil cheap for USA, if they are an allie to Russia and China they are one very useless and weak.

  • Raptar Driver

    “There is no way we can make the argument that Tillerson is an idiot. The man has proven many times over that he is intelligent and quite talented. And yet, he is Nikki Haley’s doormat. Nikki Haley – there is the real imbecile! But not Tillerson.”

    Who is the bigger idiot the one who leads or the one who follows or the one who is a doormat?

  • Blaine

    2018 will be the year of war full-on the American people. Mass privatization of the commons, elimination of labor’s right to organize, privatization of Soc Sec administration and further privatization of intel and DoD. They have the momentum to put the beat down now and will use it.

  • pet

    For such an uncritical defender of everything Russian, Mr.
    Saker would be well advised to undertake an objective analysis of the Russian
    policies and actions from the time of Gorbachev to the current time in order to
    look for the true causes of the dismal geo-strategic position of Russia today,
    instead of blaming it all on western “partners” only. I’m sure he would be able
    to find a plenty of strategic mistakes done by the Russian leadership including
    Putin, during more than 3 decades, some of them result of naked ignorance and
    others result of pure stupidity. He would also have to touch on the issue of
    the “despotic” nature of the Russian state whereby one man, whether able or not,
    decides about everything while everyone else applauds. Some suggested points
    for the analysis: betrayal and hand over of East Germany against its will, dissolution
    of Warsaw Pact without any paperwork (parallel dissolution of NATO was very
    much discussed at the time but Russians didn’t even ask for it), dissolution of
    the USSR absolutely contrary to the interests of Russian people, destruction of
    “Mir” station, betrayal of Serbia, Cuba, siding with “partners” on Iran, Libya
    etc., giving up on Vietnam and many Soviet friends and allies all over the
    world, half-hearted “intervention” in Georgia, loss of Ukraine due to negligence,
    occasional mistreatment of Belarus for its refusal to sell out to Russian oligarchs,
    total lack of care for the Russians stranded all over former Soviet space etc. etc.
    All theses things add up leading to where we are today. (I’m not even touching
    upon the state of affairs inside Russia regarding corruption, salaries, oligarchs,
    social justice and many others).

    • Savio

      You practicly said nothing. Youbtried to make argument out of nowhere. And you failed.
      Everybody today knows that USA is the bigest evil, global dictator, and it is objective truth. People all around the world think this way.

      • Solomon Krupacek

        he told everything. and you go back in the romm and take xanax.

      • 888mladen .

        He has just shown that all have fallen and come short of the glory of God. His comments are rather balancing factor to this discussion forum where RU oligarchs have been idolized by majority without any measure of healthy criticism whatsoever.

    • Solomon Krupacek

      Nice chronology of the true history!

    • 888mladen .

      Columnists are more payed for things they don’t wright about than for what they wright of.

    • Terra Cotta Woolpuller

      WTF is your point , all you did was sound like you are trying to call the Kettle black while being the potbelly stove, sounds more like your just a troll spouting Garbage!

  • RichardD

    There’s no question that Trump is catering to the ZioNazis to get them off of his back. The question is, what happens after he gets the Mueller witch hunt shut down and the impeachment attempts neutralized. My guess is that at that point he’ll resort to America First, which is what he got elected on and most Americans want.

  • Doom Sternz

    Where ever the empire has built up large numbers of troops there will be war, its that simple.

    A stark warning to us all is that never in history has a military buildup occurred that has not ended in war. As Thomas Hardy once said “You can do anything with bayonets except sit on them.”

    The empire will attack in Donbass/Russia, Syria/Iran and North Korea/China. There is a pattern here of course, in all three theaters, proxies are being used as place setters for the military build up and eventual war.

    All three theaters are of course one larger war, Gestalt principals here would apply.

    • More

      Doom Sternz
      “…The empire will attack in Donbass/Russia, Syria/Iran and North Korea/China. …”

      Very good post from you but you will not like this reply with the worst case scenario being the best case scenario.

      Putin and his corrupt cabal along with the Russian electorate have learnt nothing from Russia’s last 100 year history with the Khazarim who killed tens of millions of Russians and Soviets as well as destroyed the Russian Empire and the USSR whilst looting and plundering it.

      It will be better if the Khazarim put Donbass out of its misery as well as destroy the Russian Federation (where 50% of its populace in live in poverty or on the edge of poverty) into its components so it can be looted and plundered to finance the New Khazar Empire.

      Syria also needs to fall and be taken over by the Khazarim controlled, Turk – Saudi “Terror Axis” so Arab oil and gas pipelines can be built across Syria to Turkey and the EU.

  • Wegan

    I don’t get it… Am I the only one who thinks they are thinly spread out across the world?. They have a global footprint, but it’s costly. What are they going to do if the dollar is outclassed by Yuan, gold, Euro etc.. They will default in paying soldiers and if they don’t they will borrow like crazies and if they do the Dollar will tank even further making the war not worth it at all for soldiers.
    When I say not worth it’s because the soldiers know they are the aggressors fighting someone defending their land. Unless you are a Merc, you won’t get any motivation to continue.

    The arrogance created by the illusion of safety will accelerate the downfall. It won’t be a soft landing at all.

    • More

      Wegan
      “…what are they going to do if the dollar is outclassed by Yuan, gold, Euro etc….”

      Without a complete collapse of the world economy and destruction of many major world cities it will be impossible to dislodge the US$.

      You need to face reality, the Yuan is nothing without its export trade to the US, EU, Canada, Australia, etc.

      The Khazarim owned Banking Cartels, e.g. Rothschild, Goldman Sachs and Others control at least 80% of the World’s “Money”, the US$, Euro as well as Can$, Aus$, NZ$, GBP, British Commonwealth currencies, Yen, HK$, Sing$, GCC Arab Petro$’s, African Fr., etc.

      As an example the GCC Arab despotic Monarchies are kept in power by the US in return for using the US$ which accounts for approx 40% of the world’s oil and gas output, year in and year out., etc.,

      Even Russia the 2nd most corrupt country in the world (in a financial sense) after China begs to export its oil and gas to the EU and Turkey and willingly accepts US$s and Euros with almost all profit corruptly siphoned offshore mainly into Trillions of US$s, Euros, S Fr, etc.

      China depends on trade with the US, EU, UK, EU, Canada, Australia, etc. if this was halted by its refusal to accept the US$, Euro, etc then it would cause its own economic destruction and decline with mass unemployment running into 100’s of millions, economic depression, social unrest and chaos, etc.

  • Wegan

    Logically, it wouldn’t make sense to attack Iran or DPRK. Invading syria is not really possible now, it’s too late. The russians got the best spots and the Iranians are well entrenched . Venezuela is an urgent issue because they started selling oil in Yuan.

    As for the Donbass, it would be a Dumbass move. Puting is being questioned about the weakness of his response in Russia by the military and the United Russia party. If US-EU make a move there, they will recognize the separation of Malorussia and cut off Ukraine from the black sea altogether, and will probably annex the territory. And there is nothing the EU can do about it.

    Next move will be Moldova.

    • BMWA1

      Some intelligent remarks and yes there is more flak to Putin about Donbass, the good to excellent if modest Syria effort simply is not in the forefront domestically (RU)! From another perspective, pro RU cultural ties in UA are preserved, but at present has no bearing geopolitically at present, real power in UA belongs to OUN element. Putin seems to be waiting for UA to implode, possible in 5 to 10 y timeframe. But status quo most likely, UAF ATO lacks support outside urban Kiev and Oblasts Lviv and Ivano Franko and half support in a couple more regions. Soldiers will not fight. Just mercs and political units…badly.

  • Baltic Partisan

    Some biased shit we got here

  • Bob

    ‘…the elites not only know that they are total hypocrites and liars, but they actually see this as a sign superiority…’
    In Psychology, self grandiosity, lack of empathy for others, and ‘dupers delight’ gained from systematic deception of others are core pathological traits of sociopathy – a largely untreatable and extreme mental disorder in the Cluster B category.

  • Cheryl Brandon

    The Saker, you do your stuff. I am learning from the master analyst.

  • The world could greatly benefit from a successful Trump ‘drain the swamp’ operation – an operation that Benjamin Fulford says is going on at this moment. My prayer support will be for that operation because this looks pretty bleak.

  • Tom Tom

    Read Ezekiel 38 and 39 to see how this whole thing turns out.

    …”he USA is run by people as least as stupid and ignorant as they are evil and arrogant, possibly even more so.”

    The U.S. is run by globalists, many of whom are American, and their policy is to bleed Americans dry and destroy the middle class and then sell/divide up the country, i.e. to profit off the destruction off the U.S. Most likely they’ll also sucker the Russians into the country as U.N. troops. If Venezuela would be difficult guerilla warfare, imagine the U.S. once they wake up and realize those blue helmets are blue berets. The goal would be to destroy both Russia and the U.S. so they’re out of the way of their attempt at global control. Later on, Armageddon is the middle east and what’s left of Europe vs. the Chinese invasion into middle east. Jesus wins.

    • nice interpretation of end time , too bad it is wrong because you shoehorned current events to fit the interpretation

      then again theres a nation that openly put 666 on its flag.. and you all think too much as to miss the obvious sign,. where did the book of revelation said about the capital of antichrist empire ? the same city where Jesus got crucified..

      • Tom Tom

        Sure, only your interpretation is correct because you personally speak to the Lord? If so, then let’s hear it. Just read Ezekiel 38 and 39 at the very least. Regardless, Jesus wins in the end.

        Israeli was built by Cabalists, only Messianic Christians (the 144,000) will be left once this war is over. The coming third temple will be the antichrists temple. The 4th temple is being built currently in Heaven to be brought down to earth on Jesus’ return.