Russia-Ukraine Black Sea Military Crisis: On The Brink Of War

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On November 25, the Russian Federal Security Service (FSB) Border Service was forced to open fire on and damage Ukrainian warships, which were carrying out hostile actions and advancing in Russian territorial waters in the Black Sea off Crimea.

After the short close-quarter firefight, two Ukrainian ships were taken towed and one ship escorted by Russian forces to the Russian port of Kerch. The Ukrainian side said that 6 service members had been injured in the incident. The Russian side says that 3 Ukrainian servicemen had been slightly injured. They received medical help and there is no threat to their lives.

The data available from both sides, Ukrainian and Russian, demonstrates that the Ukrainian warships intentionally entered Russian territorial waters and were moving more deeply into them. Such a military action with the to be expected loud political coverage is not possible without a direct order from the Ukrainian top military-political leadership.

From the beginning, the Ukrainian side claimed that it informed the Russian side about the planned displacement of its ships into the Sea of Azov through the Kerch Strait. The Russian side says that there has been no request on this issue.

Even if the Ukrainian side had indeed somehow informed the Russians, it still needed to wait for an answer and permission from the Russian authorities. As the further developments showed, the Ukrainian side had received no answer/permission from the Russian side.

The existence or absence of the Ukrainian request to the Russians is irrelevant. The fact is that the Ukrainian warships violated Russian territorial waters threatening navigation in the area and provoking the Russian side.

For more than 5 hours, the Russian side had been avoiding any action to stop and block warships of the de-facto “unfriendly state” in its territorial waters. Only at about 19:00 local time, the FSB Border Service did employ real measures to put an end to the hostile actions of the warships of the de-facto “unfriendly state” in Russian territorial waters.

Summing up the existing data, it can be concluded that:

  • When the Ukrainian warships entered Russian territorial waters, there was an attempt to block the advance of the Ukrainian naval group. One of the ships of the FSB Border Service provoked a maritime collision incident with a Ukrainian ship by putting its own hull on the vector of the Ukrainian warship’s advance.
  • Within the next few hours, there was a close escort of the Ukrainian ships by the Russian naval group. Apparently, both the groups were inside or near Russian marginal waters.
  • In a couple of hours, there was a firefight incident between the Russian and Ukrainian naval groups.
  • The Ukrainian Navy recognizes that the incident happened near the borderline of the Russian 12-nautical miles zone.
  • The Ukrainian naval group was completely dominated by the Russian naval group.
  • There were casualties among Ukrainian service members.
  • Warships of the Ukrainian naval group suffered damages.
  • The Ukrainian naval group was blocked and then escorted/towed by the Russian naval group to Kerch.

There is no doubt that the leadership of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, particularly Commander-In-Chief Petro Poroshenko, gave the order to stage an action, which could cause casualties among at least military personnel. The command and servicemen of the Ukrainian Navy made every possible effort to fulfil this order.

The Russian side seemed to try to avoid an armed clash and likely attempted to solve this crisis via military-diplomatic channels for at least several hours. However, it failed to do this.

The existing data allows us to conclude that the current Ukrainian political leadership bears most of the responsibility for the November 25 maritime incident.

As to what developments we should expect in the following days, we can expect that.

The Ukrainian government will employ its propaganda and oppressive power to boost the image of Russia as the aggressive foe of Ukraine. This will lead to the escalation of tensions in the conflict zone in eastern Ukraine as well as tensions in the contact zone between Russian and Ukrainian forces in the Black Sea and the Sea of Azov.

If this fails, this incident could lead to a full discreditation of the current Ukrainian political leadership, particularly President Poroshenko, and his US supervisors.

It is important to note that overnight on November 26 the situation started escalating in eastern Ukraine  where the Ukrainian Armed Forces opened a massive artillery fire on villages and towns controlled by the Donetsk People’s Republic (DPR) at 21:48 local time.  This could indicate that the Poroshenko regime is intentionally fueling military tensions in the region in order to start a new conflict.

Overnight on November 26, Poroshenko held a meeting with the military cabinet and announced the introduction of martial law. Furthermore, the Ukrainian Armed Forces were brought to “full” combat readiness.

The introduction of martial law allows the delay of the 2019 presidential election in Ukraine, which is currently set to be held on March 31, 2019. According to polls, Poroshenko would be highly likely to lose his presidential post were the election to take place now. The armed conflict and martial law may allow him to change the situation in his favor.

Such a conflict would also allow Ukraine’s “Western partners” to boost their military presence in the country and nearby regions thus further destabilizing the situation.

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  • Poor Turk

    Journalists all around the world are rooting for a war so they can have something to write about.

    • AlexanderAmproz

      https://mises.org/library/merchant-death-basil-zaharoff

      The Merchant of Death: Basil Zaharoff

      TAGS BiographiesWar and Foreign PolicyWorld History

      08/24/2007John T. Flynn

      If the Lord God Jehovah had not created Basil Zaharoff, some novelist sooner or later would certainly have got around to the job. Indeed, it is by no means certain that Zaharoff, as we have him, is not the joint product of God and the fiction writers.

      Lieutenant Colonel Walter Guinness, member for Bury St.Edmonds, committed the blunder against history of referring to Zaharoff in the House of Commons in 1921 as the “Mystery Man of Europe.” Having fixed upon him that fascinating label, the figure of Zaharoff became thereafter a costumer’s dummy upon which the news caricaturists of Europe draped whatever garments would vindicate his reputation.

      Mysterious indeed he is and still more mysterious he became at the hands of the sensational news portrait painters. The mystery begins with his birth. A French biographer, Roger Menevee? records that he was born in Moughliou, or Mugla, on the Anatolian coast. But a German, Robert Neumann, asserts that Zaharoff, testifying in a London court as a young man, said he was born in the Tatavla or poor section of Constantinople, and he notes that the Mugla nativity is attested by an affidavit of a Greek priest made forty-two years after the event and was based upon memory.

      It was never known with complete certainty to what country he owed allegiance. He was a Greek, born in Turkey, who lived in Paris. His right to the ribbon of the Grand Cross of the Legion of Honor was questioned in the Chamber of Deputies and M. Clemenceau had to assure the Chamber that “M. Zaharoff is a Frenchman.” But also he was throughout his life the guiding genius of a great British armament concern, acted as a British agent, was a Knight of the Bath, known in England as Sir Basil Zaharoff.

      https://mises.org/library/merchant-death-basil-zaharoff

      • Omega

        Zaharoff was linked to the upper echelon of the British Empire and to various dubious people. A mysterious but very degenerate man to say the least.

        Satanist Anton LaVey was a mobster and eugenicist. According to a 1990 book, The Secret Life of a Satanist – The Authorized Biography of Anton LaVey, by self-described Satanist Blanche Barton, Anton LaVey, the founder of the Church of Satan in San Francisco, was the son of a Chicago liquor distributor. As a young man, LaVey accompanied his uncle Bill to Las Vegas, to help Bugsy Siegel and Meyer Lansky set up the Flamin­ go Hotel and Casino. LaVey was later in­ volved in running guns to the Zionist terror­ist groups Irgun and Stem Gang.

        LaVey’s hero was arms merchant Sir Basil Zaharoff, whose house contained a “black-draped Satanic chapel,” the book said. Among the “first members of what would eventually evolve into the Church of Satan …was the heir to the Vickers muni­tions estate.” Zaharoff was an agent of Al­ bert Vickers, the head of the Vickers arms empire.

        Barton wrote: “Lurking behind all the nasty tricks of high heels,seamed stockings, fantasies, fetishes and odors, however, is the real, and dangerous, content of Anton LaVey’s Satanic Witch…. In the guise of practical witchery, LaVey has written a handbook of eugenics, insidiously putting forth a system for applied natural selection to be implemented by any woman who reads and heeds what LaVey has written.’Be­ cause of forced egalitarianism,’ says La­ Vey, ‘the lost science of eugenics, the art of typing people, has been all but outlawed, and the Darwinian process of natural selec­tion has been virtually reversed.’.”

        https://bit.ly/2E0Js7A

        • AlexanderAmproz

          Merci !

        • Brother Ma

          And yet La Vey was a Jew! Who would fit in well with the Ukro Jew nazis of today in Porky’s regime. What is Ukraine now but an exclave of Israel anyway?

  • stary ujo

    EU , USA and NATO terorists , hands off from Russia ! Conflict between Ukraine and Russian , is your plot ! We Slavs never go against Russians brothers !

  • Kell McBanned

    Sad stuff :(

  • Icarus Tanović

    “And Ukraine govs Western “Supervisors””. So, those “Supervisors” started this all.

  • Robert McMaster

    Yawn. The Ukies are wetting their pants. Again. They are always wetting themselves about something. Just change the channel. Order in some pizza. Take the dog for a walk. They will run out of steam and go away. Again.

    • Rodney Loder

      Any little thing can be the spark that ignites the Middle East, it could have been a itchy trigger finger of a jew pilot as you indicate, following which the the Captain of the French frigate Auvergne ordered several missiles fired simply to obfuscate the issue.

      I don’t believe that narrative because my overall assessment is that real Jews are being used by Christians to defeat Muslims intellectually, Christians don’t give a rat’s arse about the Gospels or anything except wealth and power, Christians feel bad about Jerusalem being inhabitated by Muslims.

      The Talmud to Christians is the same as the Old Testament, so for me the French are cold blooded murderers.

      • Robert McMaster

        I agree with your perspective but only Isreal and the U.S. have even the slightest intention of escalating things. And both know that Russia has the power there and beyond to humble them. Being in place as they are the Russians are an insurmountable obstacle. So, a lot of yelling but nobody is going to substantially challenge the Russians.

        • Rodney Loder

          Russia would probably opt for a detente if permitted, but the reason Obama pivoted to the Pacific after making peace with Iran was because the West was expecting Iran to breathe a sigh of relief and conform to Western dictates.

          Iran was moving in that direction since Rouhani was elected 2013 but 2 years later Rouhani was not giving the US what it wanted, Obama had missed calculated but had little choice because it was clear in 2013 that China was emerging as the Eurasian leader.

          Russia was greatly advantaged with China in that role and grudgingly accepted the situation due to the fact that the West shunned Russia for cultural and economic reasons.

          Also the ‘Libyan blowback migration effect’, and ISIL, who Putin wiped out, gave Putin a handle on influencing Western Public Opinion badly upsetting for the Democrats and pushing Putin close to Trump who exploited the good image of Putin somewhat but dropped by the wayside of late.

          Obama’s Pivot was stymied by the failure of the British and French Arab Spring, now their auxiliaries the Brotherhood have taken a better offer, and support Assad which means Sisi has outlived his usefulness and needs to go his popularity is hinged to Saudi finance which in turn is linked to winning the Yemeni war and keeping Russian and US support.

          The Idlib situation has to be a political settlement, most of al-Nurash will come on board with Turkey after a bit of convincing.

          Saudi and Emirate players could be taken out of the Syrian war at this juncture, Russia doesn’t believe this is credible, but if they did and put their efforts into helping to eliminate YPG Putin would forget about the detente with MbS and Trump.

          • Robert McMaster

            You lay out a good analysis. I add only this: matters are accelerating, things are tending to spin out of normal control. This favours Russia as Putin is a master who keeps his cool but can act decisively. Also China where the regime is coherent, not ridelled by factions and has a robust economy on which to rely. The U.S., in contrast, is fragile, under severe domestic stress, paralyzed by bitter factions. Not able to respond with flexibility and mostly heading downhill fast on every front.

            It will always be Russia+China against the failing and flailing U.S. Europe doesn’t even count any more.

          • Rodney Loder

            I agree with all of that, Putin is tying up with Saudi Arabia economically and will likely be the Oil King, to achieve that he is offerring Salman a way out.

            This could mean israel is foiled left only with Sisi covering their back, as you say the West won’t engage a vociferous enemy without absolute fire power and command of the skies, which they no longer have.

            Salman will try to lead Putin on to supporting Kalifa in Libya, Trump has got to strengthen Salman’s position to give him influence over Putin.

            The US Security Establishment believe the EU and Britain will never support Trump and will work with the Dems to undermine him and get a more reasonable and logical president who would still pursue the same agenda.

            Bernie Sanders is making another run, this looks like the big one to undo Trump, Bernie is no threat to Putin because he is “anti Russia”, thank God.

          • Robert McMaster

            The U.S. is edging to ‘pretty well out of this’. The factional tensions in the region are churning to re-alignment with Saudi, Iran and Turkey as the poles. Egypt is limited by its fragile internal politcal situation. If Turkey and Iran bloc together while Saudi is unstable then that bloc may cohere with minor states joining in. All backed by Russia.

            You are right about Libya which may surprise everywone. Place could go up anytime. The EU is emboiled in its own problems – the yellow vests, the Italian economy and Brexit. Not a player any more.

            Russia gains along the line. Patiently and steadily. The U.S. resembles the Ukraine. Failed states not to get invilved with. Who wants their visceral debris to stick on them? And the U.S. has lost military dominance. Now, the axis is China and Russia nailing the dollar reserve currency and establishing an antidote to SWIFT.

          • Rodney Loder

            The US Secretary of State Pompeo is ringing the alarm bells because of what you mentioned, looking for support, Obama did the same thing in September 2013 Five US Destroyers opposing the Russian Navy, 2 Tomahawks were fired but failed to reach target trajectory and Obama’s war was cancelled.

            Obama stood down and called on the British who voted down the conflict the first time in 200 years the British turned away except for Chamberlain.

            Obama then gave the decision to go it alone to Congress and they said no.

            Maybe Trump has got more balls than Obama, I agree Europe won’t engage, however Trump is looking like a pussy embarassing his base Trump could be red-faced into making a move.

            The Fed. believs there is nothing to lose because if Trump goes ballistic and Russia backs down it would be a massive win, if Trump goes ballistic and Russia opens up Trump will be impeached with his own endorsement , it’s a win win for the Fed.

            Americans really believe that Pompeo is in with a chance, and the US is somehow supreme militarily.

          • Robert McMaster

            Good points all along your line.

            The U.S. is increasingly a case of “An Empty Drum Makes The Loudest Noise”. A country too fragile and divided to sustain any real shocks that would ensue from really serious rumpus. They choose ceremonial targets. The CFO of Huawei or Assange. Or tarrifs issued until the return blast hits. Sailing one sad warship around the Black Sea. Meanwhile, China+Russia patiently plan and plot to replace SWIFT and tank the U.S. dollar. Plus, buy up Pakistan, the Philippenes, most of Africa.

            Europe is paralyzed with internal dissent, the Fed is out of tools as the debt chickens come home to roost. Ameicans are so fat, lazy and stupid they can’t sustain a draft. Cost of crap health care heading over 20% GNP.

            As Tom Leher sang in National Brotherhood Week:

            Oh, the poor folks, hate the rich folks
            And the rich folks hate the poor folks
            All of my folks hate all of your folks
            It’s American as apple pie

          • Rodney Loder

            The CFO of Huawei Meng Wanzhou arrested this is very similar to the x Chairman of the Australian Wheat Board Trevor Flugg in 2017 was personally fined $50 K for violating sanctions to do with Saddam Hussein that decision came from the Australian Securities and Investment Commission, two other Wheat Board executives were convicted one had a $ 100 K personal fine.

            The investigations into the Wheat Board itself resulted from the UN Oil for Food program in 2004. The action was directed by the US Fed. Chairman Paul Volcker and operated through the UN.

            This could never happen again, the US Fed has gone from being the muscle man kicking sand in the face of the little guy sitting on the beach to being the little guy sitting on the beach.

            I agree they can rant but the fact is the US is now out gunned by Hypersonic Ballistic and Cruise missile that are capable of heavy pay loaded and long distance travelling, and all they got is THAAD that is low end hypersonic (mach 6•5) and max range 200 km. with kinetic impact only.

            I agree with you entirely.

          • Robert McMaster

            “Russia now has the world’s most self-sufficient and diversified economy capable of producing anything possibly made in the world. Russia is now for the first time in its history food self-sufficient while simultaneously exporting more food than ever before. With this clout, Russia is prepared to withstand the economic siege, that the US regime is hatching.”
            This from Partick Armstrong (quoating) at Russia Observer today.

            I also note reports today that the SU-57 will be carrying hypersonic missiles.
            Every day, the evidence and weight piles up. More, more, more!
            Good points about the Wheat Board racketeering.

  • Rodney Loder

    Poroshenko can easily provoke Putin now by sabotaging the bridge, but will he have international support in particular Merkel, I don’t think so, so why this minor friction now ?. Something to do with the G20 or to take the spotlight off Netanyahu’s up and coming bombing run on Syrian targets, I think the latter.

    • Brother Ma

      Which upandcoming bombing run Rodney?

      • Rodney Loder

        Netanyahu has promised to continue attacking targets in Syria since the Russian II-20M was shot down.

        Netanyahu accepted responsibilities to avoid an international incident caused by France who fired the missile that hit Il-20, this was initially reported by Russia who later decided to go along with israel being the cause.

        That was over 2 months ago, the SAA now has now been given 3 batteries of S-300 air defense missiles as a result of defenceless Russian Il-20 loss with 15 crew deceased.

        IDF is constantly training in Lebanon and Ukraine to workout attack strategies to defeat the S-300 installation.

        Netanyahu says the attack is imminent, he says he can’t be stopped maybe his F-35’s can beat S-300 maybe not.

        • Brother Ma

          Yes. I remember the talk of the French being involved as were maybe the British. What makes you think that Israel is covering for France?
          There was talk that it was a concerted effort of Israel ,France and the Uk all acting in a fashion to ensure not only one could be pinned with the crime. There was also talk that Israel simply did its dirty work and framed it on France not caring about the repercussions. Who in NeoCon Us cares about the French right? Why would the Us/un/nato make waves for the French when Israel is at stake,right?

          So why do you think Israel would want to take the heat for France?

          • Rodney Loder

            Assad also went along with the story that it was firing at Israeli F-16’s which is ridiculous, SAA radar clearly distinguishes the difference between the two types of aircraft, and the SAA would have been closely tracking the Il-20 since it was almost landing when the action occurred.

            There are other technical factors, S200 fires at 2•5 Kilometers per second and so would cover 100 kilometres in 40 seconds, the Il-20 flew for another 5 minutes after the close encounter with the F-16’s flying north for another 40 km and even made a 90° turn to land at Hmeimim.
            https://en.reseauinternational.net
            How we know the Il-20……..

            France never denied frigate Auvergne was firing missiles at the exact time, France denied involvement in the Il -20’s destruction.

            When you factor in Assad’s considerations it becomes obvious that it’s better all round if israel were blamed and France given the opportunity to reevaluate it’s erroneous suppositions about Russian commitment.

            Why isreal took the blame is because Netanyahu is paranoid of being locked up, and also because israel in now totally marginalised in the ME so Netanyahu is much more overtly inclined to take orders directly from the West.

            Netanyahu knows the West will not prevail in a balanced war of attrition he want a safe haven for himself and his family.

            Wealthy jews have got influence but in the final analysis israel is a Christian Crusade I think the first following the sack of Constantinople (1204), so this is the 5 th Crusade of the Pope to conquer the Holy Lands.

          • Brother Ma

            Plausible points friend. I never bought the saa shot it down by mistake bullshit for many reasons ,including that Russia always said it had trained Russians sitting on the s200-300 s as well. Syria also denied it shot it down by accident and gave radar data to the russians proving so. That was in the first few days. Syria then stopped saying that.
            Either way i believe it was shot down by hostile fire.i still believe israel shot them down and tried to frame France as the stoolie or the whole lot were in on it.

  • Baregil

    Chocoshenko