Russia Outlines Road Map For Syrian Peace Settlement

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Russia Outlines Road Map For Syrian Peace Settlement

Source: bbc.co.uk

Written by Alexander Mercouris; Originally appeared at TheDuran

Russia’s President Putin proposes a peace conference to seek a settlement of the Syrian conflict in the Kazakh capital Astana. Proposes Turkey as co-sponsor. Proposal however elicits hostile reaction from the Western powers.

To this end Russia’s Foreign and Defence Ministers spoke with their Turkish and Iranian counterparts yesterday, and Russia is inviting Iranian President Rouhani to visit Moscow.  There is also talk of a tripartite summit involving Russia, Turkey and Iran to discuss a Syrian settlement.

Putin is also talking about a ceasefire between the Syrian army and the non-Jihadi opposition, and the convening of a peace conference bringing together the Syrian government and the ‘moderate’ Syrian opposition to be held in the Kazakh capital Astana.

What is striking about the latter proposal is that it appears to cut across the existing UN led peace conference, which is supposed to be taking place in Geneva, and which the US, the other Western powers, and the Gulf Arab states, have been attending.  By contrast, at Saudi Arabia’s insistence, Iran’s role in the Geneva conference has been restricted even though Iran is a major player in the Syrian conflict.  Putin’s proposed conference at Astana would by contrast place Iran centre stage, and appears to be intended to limit the negotiations to settle the conflict to the leading powers directly involved in the conflict in Syria: Russia, Turkey and Iran.

Putin’s proposal is a follow up on the negotiations that led to the final agreement for the withdrawal of the Jihadis in Aleppo, which in the end took place bilaterally between Russia and Turkey, cutting out the US.

It reflects Russian disillusion with the US and its negotiating stance over Syria.  The Russians feel that they twice painstakingly negotiated deals with the US in February and September in Syria, with commitments from the US to separate ‘moderate rebels’ from the Jihadis and to withdraw the Jihadis from Aleppo, which the US in the end never honoured.

Beyond that it undoubtedly reflects Russian anger at the extraordinary campaign the US orchestrated against Russia in the run up to the Syrian army’s victory in Aleppo, in which the Russians were accused of war crimes even as they were trying to negotiate the withdrawal of Jihadi fighters and civilians from eastern Aleppo.

In proposing a peace conference at Astana the Russians are also undoubtedly calculating that there is more prospect of a final agreement to end the war being agreed at this venue.  The key reason why the Syrian conflict has gone on for so long is because whenever negotiations begin the Syrian opposition egged on by the Western powers and the Arab Gulf States insists as a precondition that President Assad must go.  That is a demand the Russians and the Syrian government have repeatedly said is unacceptable, the making of which however ensures that the negotiations never get past first base.

By contrast President Putin has recently made known what he envisages that the outline of a Syrian peace settlement to be: first negotiations on the form of a new constitution, then internationally supervised elections in which President Assad is fully allowed to take part, with President Assad remaining President of Syria in his capacity of Syria’s legitimate and internationally recognised head of state until then.

Putin does however agree – as incidentally does President Assad – that members of the Syrian opposition should join a transitional government, which should government Syria until the terms of the new constitution are agreed and the elections take place.

This conception for a settlement of the Syrian conflict remains however completely unacceptable to Western governments and the Gulf Arab states, who remain committed to their agenda of regime change in Syria.  For this reason they are guaranteed to receive President Putin’s proposal for a peace conference in Astana with hostility and alarm.  To get a sense of what their attitude is going to be, just consider the wording of this paragraph in an editorial in the British newspaper the Observer published today Sunday 18th December 2016:

The third aspect is diplomatic: namely, Russia’s bid to take charge of peace negotiations that until now have been overseen by the UN and largely driven by the US and the EU.  Putin’s unilateral announcement of ceasefire talks in Kazakhstan later this month, co-sponsored by Turkey and excluding the western powers, illuminates his ambition to elevate Russia as the Middle East’s premier power-broker and sideline the US and Europe.  By posing as peacemaker, Putin hopes to confound those who accuse him of barbarism and war crimes.  In Putin’s old KGB playbook about ends and means, a Russian imposed settlement in Syria, however crude. would justify his brutal and illegal methods.  For the world at large, that is the most dangerous outcome of all.

(bold italics added)

To which one can only respond: why is a peace settlement in Syria, if successful and however ‘crude’ it may be, ‘for the world the most dangerous outcome of all’, simply because it has been brokered by Russia?  Isn’t a successful peace settlement both for the world and for Syria the best outcome whoever brokers it?

Unfortunately the Observer’s editorial accurately represents the essential nihilism of Western policy throughout the Syrian war, and almost certainly reflects official thinking in London.  Far better to have the Syrian war go on forever, and have Syria completely destroyed, than have a peace settlement in which the Western powers (‘the US and EU’) are excluded, which leaves President Assad in place – thereby defeating the objective of regime change – and which has been brokered by Russia.

Whether President Putin’s [attempt to broker a peace settlement of the Syrian conflict with Turkey will in the end be successful remains to be seen.  Much will depend on the cooperation of the hitherto erratic and unreliable Turkish government, which has up to now single-mindedly pursued its agenda for regime change in Syria.

If it does succeed, then barring a total reversal of policy by the soon to be President Trump, then on the evidence of the Observer editorial and the comments of Western officials and diplomats throughout the day, it will be no thanks to any help from the Western powers.

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  • Thracian King

    Peace will come to Middle East if western barbarians stay away,

    • alexis

      Excellent, you are right. But even more, I would punish by Haague trial all western politicans, that caused this “bloody horror” on the Middle East…

  • Drinas

    “By posing as peacemaker, Putin hopes to confound those who accuse him of barbarism and war crimes.”
    The naivete and deluded nature of Kremlin’s policy in a nutshell. They still believe that that they can be part of the club, “accepted” by the West. The very same West that is hellbent on destroying Russia. Instead of finishing off the fight, humiliating all those who supported the terrorists, they want more ceasefires..

    • 1691

      I get your point and to a degree I would have agreed with you, however, you catch flies with honey, not vinegar.:)

    • Ronald

      By taking control of the “peace talks” , Putin has a chance of pulling it off . Syria with allies Russia , Iran ,meeting with Erdogan the major aggressor would eliminate all those EU and US voices , that really only want to sabotage any chance of peace . They want war at any cost .
      These talks need not be tied to any ceasefires , rather better not . If Putin and Iran can convince Erdogan to give up his “Sultan” fantasy , and instead withdraw from Syria , it would save many , many lives , and Turkey itself . If the north of Syria is safe from Turkey , then it is the KSA and Israel (US) that can be dealt with at future talks . Putin is too big a man to care about the latest propaganda , he knows who are the real criminals .

    • Serious

      The west attacked Syria and accused Putin of war crimes.
      USA attacked Iraq but Russia never accused USA of war crimes.

      That’s why USA always win. USA attack and everyone shut their month. If you defend yourself, USA accused you of war crimes.

      This war started since 11/9 when nobody but Iran exposed 9/11. This war started when Russia doesn’t give S-300 to Syria and made Syria a strong ally that can defend itself. This war started when USA invaded Iraq and nobody complained.

      So, this war started decades ago.

  • Serious

    No peace if arab countries never sue the west. USA invaded Iraq for NO REASON killing 1+million Iraqis and arab countries just look at it and did nothing about it.

    The problem is that if these countries never ask for compensations, why will the west stop ????

    A group of gangsters has attacked Syria and Syria does nothing against it. I can’t beleive it. If it was me I will sue all foreign countries that attacked Syria for war crimes, invasion and ask for huge compensations.

    The west is a very aggressive group. If you don’t defend yourself, they will attack always you and find traitors to do the dirty job for them.

  • Serious

    The problem is that arab countries are the victim but they don’t complain. It’s like a woman being raped but don’t sue the rapist or a man being robbed but don’t sue the thief hoping he will stop by himself.

    Arab countries are the victim of their own stupidity and the west wickedness. They always play against themself.

    Not like Iran that knows how to defend itself. By the way, Iran is the only country that had explicitly exposed 11/9 lies. Arabd countries, Russia, … were sleeping and hoping that the west will stop to be such evil. But evil is evil. You fight the evil, you don’t negociate with him.

  • dutchnational

    Reading the deluded love party among the other commenters, it is clear they either lack knowledge of what is and was happening in the mideast or are disregarding it out of anti western feeling.

    The mess in the Mid East has its founding in the backward Ottoman Empire, leaving a backward sectarian and tribal region without any internal coherence, without any economic development.

    This was all made worse by the colonial squabbling of the colonial empires of that time, Russia, France and the UK.

    After wwI there was a start of economic development but the tribal, sectarian and backward societies remained and there still were not any real countries there (except for Turkey and Persia).

    The present is not largely different now.

    After wwII those countries were influenced by Soviet and UK hostility, which did not help those countries in developing sound structures and economies.

    Their population growth far surpassed economic growth, creating huge imbalances in their societies.

    That is what brought the present.

    All other factors just made it worse instead of better.

    • Brad Isherwood

      https://therearenosunglasses.files.wordpress.com/2013/10/map1.jpg
      Syria’s oil/nat gas in their various regions require an authority to oversee that.
      The current loot and scoot system ended for something that Russia,Turkey and
      Iran can sign off on.
      The Syrian landscape will be full of crazies and embittered regional.
      It’s the Energy…the future contracts.
      Erdogan is the one at greatest risk now,…as if he Throws Saudi/Qatar Pipeline
      Under the bus….Mr Assassin might follow.
      Or…Erdogan wants that pipeline…but has to cut a deal with Putin and Iran.
      This is all off …down the road future for Syria.
      Empire is loosing it’s footprint in the ME. ..while Nations dump Trillions of USD $