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FEBRUARY 2023

Russia Led CSTO – A Paper Tiger ? Aliyev’s Accomplice ? True Military Alliance ?

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Russia Led CSTO - A Paper Tiger ? Aliyev’s Accomplice ? True Military Alliance ?

Illustrative Image: CSTO military exercise

“Even the finest sword plunged into salt water will eventually rust.” Sun Tzu’s Art of War.

Written by Dhanuka Dickwella

CSTO (the Collective Security Treaty Organization) was formed by Russia for the collective protection of herself & the other members of the organization. It is based on a divine principal stipulated by the “ Article 4”. “ Collective Security Treaty (CST) establishes that an aggression against one signatory would be perceived as an aggression against all” . Now the very reason for obtaining the membership of this security alliance would have been none other than a guarantee of security if & when a member state is under attack. This was displayed when the anti government protests in Kazakhstan turned into mob violence. However looking at the ever volatile Caucus front , one would wonder whether the founding principles of the CSTO have any value period.

In 1994 when Armenia joined the CSTO it had good reason to do so. Emerging victorious from the first Karabak war, they needed to have the backing of an alliance to deter any aggression from one of its historical foes – Azerbaijan & Turkey. Additionally Russian 102nd Military Base located in Gyumri, Armenia doubles down on Russia’s commitment towards Armenia.

After the conclusion of the first Karabak war, there have been occasional border skirmishes between Azerbaijan & Armenia. The situation however was nothing compared to what it has become now. Things took a 180 degree turn after the second Karabak war. Ever since Azerbaijan has behaved in hawkwish manner & its president Aliyev’s bellicose statements kept adding to the heat. With a new hostile stance of “ demilitarizing the Armenian militias in Artsakh” his forces have been attacking the republic of Artsakh on a regular basis. Despite the presence of the Russian Peacekeepers , Azeris attacks have increased.

The latest attack however has a distinctly different deviation from the previous once. Azeris have attacked dozens of locations well within the Armenian border. The death & destruction is simply unimaginable. The attacks are unprovoked & purely to create a scapegoat to a pending large scale war. But wait , the CSTO is supposed to come in to the Armeninans aid as per the charter. One of its founding members’ borders has been violated, a hostile military is killing the member states’ civilians & military, and a member state’s total security structure has been jeopardized in an audacious way.

So we should be now seeing the CSTO paratroopers landing on the Azeri-Armenian border to protect its population. At least the ever powerful TU95 bears to fly over the belligerent to deter any further provocations. But they stick to issuing statements. “ Restrain, calm & discuss”. What is the redline the CSTO needs to intervene & safeguard the Armenaians ? 1000 dead Armenians ? An attack on the central square of Yeveran? Attack on the Russian military base?

There is absolutely no doubt that the Russians would not prefer to open a second front when its military is facing difficulties at the hands of Ukranians in the European front. But this kind of cowardice only plays into the hands of its enemies. Losing your credibility of deterrence is the worst thing in the 21st century. When you are humiliated to this degree by a tiny yet arrogant caucus member , how will you stand up to bigger geopolitical foes ?

Ilham Aliyev does not speak Diplomacy & he does not comprehend the language of peace. What he understands is brute force. He has a resolute belief that European powers will not intervene due to his energy partnerships. The Declaration of Sushi signed with Turkey has promised him military aid in case of an attack. So why fear after all. The audacity of the brazen attack on Armenia proper , speaks volumes of his disregard to the CSTO. This begs the question , is it only the fear of a second front that makes the lethargic response from Russia ? Are they in bed with Ilahm Aliyev & Erdogan ?

Russia does not need to bomb Baku to oblivion or open another hot war. But she could show force by different means. By deploying a contingent of the Collective Rapid Reaction Force or the KSOR which was created for this very purpose, they could bring their Caspian fleet closer to Azeri shores. A symbolic show of force would be very well understood by Baku & its patrons.

But if they decide to sit idle & let the Gas king of Caucuses bring mayhem upon Armenians , it won’t be too long that the Turks & Azeris will march on Yerevan & commit another genocide.

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Dorotheolomon

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Last edited 4 months ago by Dorotheolomon
Gorgeous George

Armenia should apply for membership in RF. All probs solved. But Pashinian is a Western stooge and wants Russia to help but on the next occasion will stab Russia in the back.

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Vanya

The Russians won’t even defend their own border let alone worrying about Armenia.

gonzalo

They are a little busy right now if you failed to notice. During the Vietnam war Americans did nothing when North Korea killed their soldiers south of DMZ, they shot down US spy aircraft, even took one American ship USS Pueblo.

Donnchadh

Your right GG a big long list of “American Friends ” – when I reached “NATO,s Partnership for Peace ” that was it – its an anti- Russian organisation along with a lot more American “partnerships ” .

That alone gives me grave misgivings as to where Armenia stands -nothing to do with Russia being a “paper tiger ” more like Russia doesn’t trust Armenia just like trusting Erdogan -which I dont ..

Russia is a paper tiger

Meow

Vanya

What are the Russians going to do about it, perhaps throw oligarch yachts at the Turks?

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Suk Me Kok

They’ll throw your Ukro-mom at the Turks

Donnchadh

Just not fight for them as they -Armenia prefer Biden .

Florian Geyer

Exactly. All too many ex-Soviet states have a leaderships that the US has bribed with freshly printed dollars, and after the bribes the US videos them in compromising situations.

Slava Rossiya.

Iron Zion 🦾🇮🇱

You are on strong dose of copium. Before you know it Russia is surrounded by a new reality. That’s the promise, we deliver the truth.

Josh

That all sounds very frustrating…

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Josh

https://tenor.com/view/frustrating-beerfest-beerfestmovie-gif-5298921

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Iren

The collective West is now doing everything possible to stop Russia in Ukraine, disrupt the referendums on the annexation of the liberated territories and roll back the allied forces as far as possible to the border. Attacks on Russia’s positions are coming in all directions, the West is using the tactics of “total pressure” and political blitzkrieg, trying to create maximum tension per unit of time. At the same time, several economic, political and military projects were launched, including attempts to open “second” fronts to Russia in Nagorno-Karabakh, Transnistria and Georgia, where representatives of the ruling party called for a national referendum on war with Russia.

On the negotiating track is still the chief consigliere on behalf of the collective West, Recep “dove of peace” Erdogan, who again invites Putin to his hookah in Istanbul, offering mediation services for direct negotiations with Zelensky. It is no coincidence that at the same time, Nagorno-Karabakh flared up again, Erdogan again played the main role in the escalation of the conflict, who provoked Azerbaijan to start active hostilities. Erdogan lit, Erdogan can put out – an unambiguous signal to Putin from the Turkish “friend”. Once again, Russia is being forced into a new separate “obscene” peace on the West’s terms – to give up all ambitions and gained positions, pay reparations and indemnities to Ukraine, and again become an obedient vassal of the collective West, returning to its geopolitical stall of a “regional power”. But the red lines have already been crossed on all sides, and the rivalry has already acquired a fundamental existential character – the Kremlin does not agree to make any significant concessions. And this means that the stakes are accepted, and in the near future it will become very hot.

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Florian Geyer

It appears that NATO is in a hurry as the Russian General winter will soon arrive with Siberian soldiers who are the grandsons of those that defeated Germany in the Winter war of 1941.

Few, if any NATO mercs will survive a Russian winter of combat. Camping in Norway during NATO winter exercises is just an adventure holiday, and only their best trained troops can do that.

Slava Rossiya.

Russia is a paper tiger

You know that this war Started in february right? Russian performance was disastrous

Vanya

Every diplomatic initiative of the Putin Kremlin turns out shoddy like this relationship with Turkey. Russian foreign services stinks just as bad as the Russian general staff.

Disinfo

Lol! All of Russia’s allies are getting pummeled.

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Joe Biden

Yeah, China for example. And you are getting pummeled by Hunter Biden.

Iron Zion 🦾🇮🇱

Russia is nothing but a vodka station filled with drunks and bravado. In Tel Aviv we have a saying the Russian bear is a stuffed toy. We showed them in Ukraine what they really are, and now Azerbaijan… we will stuff them some more. Glory to the promised land 🦾🇮🇱🇦🇿🦾

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Malcolm

The collective west is not, the 60 percent are irrelevant anywhere, the crop has reached its zenith. Out they will go we will be back in the game. Only better kinder and more ruthless.

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LoveTheSmellOfBurntUkrainian

Well said …. and that is precisely what I said last year when Armenia was last attacked !

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USA#1!

Who would be crazy enough to follow russia after it’s embarrassing defeat in Ukraine???!!!

heheheh

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Vanya

CSTO and Russia are paper tigers. Kazakhstan quit the CSTO and China promised to give them security guarantees, including against Russia!

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Lance Ripplinger

First of all, Armenia is screwed, since they were stupid and had that color revolution. Pashinyan is an anti-Russian moron, who only now is realizing his anti-Russian policies have led to this lethal disaster. It is my understanding that the Armenian military had Iskander missiles, but Pashinyan (being an anti-Russian moron) claimed they only worked 10% of their capacity. He got rid of them, and so Armenia has no deterrence to stop Azerbaijan. Of course, Azerbaijan is flush with oil money, so they feel emboldened to attack Armenia without provocation. The CSTO meanwhile isn’t doing anything, including defending Armenia. What needs to happen, is Azerbaijan needs to be made painfully aware of the consequences of their actions. You could do this by targeting their oil fields. They would be suing for peace fast if this happened.

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AliG

It is time that Russia recognizesbthe truth. The Ukraine war does not make it bigger its only its harm. Even small countries like Azerbaijan are now encouraged to question Russias power. The solution is very easy. Instead of burning gas Russia can send gas to EU again so EU is free with Russia to punish Azerbaijan for its attack. EU and Russia can win the economic war. No gas exports from AZ and within days the Aliyev regime falls.

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Peppe il Sicario

The renewed NATO psyop campaign with its disinfo bots and trolls rolls on in full force. South Front is no exception. For months these trolls were stuck in their boyfriend’s “man-room” keeping their useless mouths busy in other endeavors as Russia destroyed Ukraine’s fighting ability day by day, but now with the word out from Washington to exalt their fake victory in Kharkiv, they are back here at it again. No matter what you do, your fate has been determined. No God will come to your rescue.

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Gappista

Or start giving short range air defense to armenian and attack drone will not fly…

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Iron Zion 🦾🇮🇱

Together with our Turk brothers we will re-take Armenia and cut the head of the Iranian snake. CTSO is a dud and if I was an Armenian terrorist I would learn to swim, because our drones will be coming for you soon, then we take the promise to Iran. Our promise is we will spare nothing. Watch this space terrorists 🦾🇮🇱

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Ziological Warfare

We endured genocide many times. But in Israel we do not recognize the Armenian genocide

Iron Zion 🦾🇮🇱

We recognise you are an inbred piece of shit.

Ziological Warfare

Hi, i’m an expert in ziological warefare and lying. If you need any advice, contact me – sara_steinbergman@nuttyahoo.com

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Iron Zion 🦾🇮🇱

Anti-semite dead pos walking

Colonel Dolma

boggles the mind… the only explanation I can come up with for Putin’s lack of action here, or when both sets of turks shot down his planes or killed his ambassador is that Putin: a) is WEF crypto jew chabad lover or b) gets 10-20% of all hydrocarbon profit from scum Aliev or c) both of the above..Pashynian is a fool, incompetent and perhaps a traitor but could be removed as fast as a Russian energy executive

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Alex

Keep eyes on a big picture. Russia is trying to keep balance between huge interest to keep friendly relationship with Turkey, and obligations to Armenia. It looks like it outsourced preservation of Armenian borders to Iran, which is not interested in increased influence of Turkey and Israel on its borders. It is complex game in which Iran and Russia find themselves aligned in almost every way, and which will keep ambitions of sultan Erdogan in check.

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Last edited 4 months ago by Alex
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