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Resumption Of Military Hostilities In Eastern Ukraine Is Drawing Nearer

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Resumption Of Military Hostilities In Eastern Ukraine Is Drawing Nearer

Russia said that it would be senseless to hold Normandy four format talks while Ukraine ignores enforcing the law on the special status of the region of Donbass and refuses to withdraw its forces, Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Grigory Karasin said.

Earlier, in November, during a press briefing Russian President Vladimir Putin said that talks in the Normandy four format are meaningless during an Ukrainian election period. That is mostly due to the fact that despite passing a law that sets the special status of the Donbass region, the Ukrainian government has made nothing to enforce it. The Ukrainian authorities have also made no progress on implementing the Minsk agreement.

The OSCE Special Monitoring Mission to Ukraine has noted the following Ukrainian forces present in government-controlled areas in violation of the withdrawal lines and near them in daily reports:

On December 12th:

In violation of the withdrawal lines:

  • A multiple launch rocket system (BM-21 Grad, 122mm) near Kostiantynivka (60km north of Donetsk) heading north-east on road H-20.

Beyond the withdrawal lines but outside of designated storage sites:

  • 4 tanks (T-64) stationary at the train station in Bakhmut (formerly Artemivsk, 67km north of Donetsk).

On December 13th:

Beyond the withdrawal lines but outside of designated storage sites:

  • Two tanks (T-72) stationary at the train station in Bakhmut
  • A self-propelled anti-aircraft system (2K22 Tunguska) being transported on a flatbed trailer moving east near Novoolenivka (48km north-west of Donetsk).

On December 14th:

In violation of the withdrawal lines:

  • a towed howitzer (D-20, 152mm) under camouflage netting near Dyliivka (49km north of Donetsk); and
  • a surface-to-air missile system (9K35 Strela-10) near Ozarianivka (formerly Pershe Travnia, 52km north of Donetsk).

On December 15th:

Beyond the withdrawal line but outside designated storage sites:

  • a surface-to-air missile system (9K33 Osa) near Pidhorodne (73km north of Donetsk);
  • a surface-to-air missile system (9K33) in Verkhnokamianka (84km north-west of Luhansk);
  • a surface-to-air missile system (9K33) near Spirne (96km north of Donetsk);
  • a self-propelled anti-aircraft system (2K22 Tunguska) and three surface-to-air missile systems (9K35 Strela-10) at the railway station in Rubizhne (84km north-west of Luhansk);
  • a self-propelled anti-aircraft system (2K22) near Mykolaivka (77km west of Luhansk);
  • a mortar (type undetermined) in Lysychansk (75km north-west of Luhansk);
  • 60 tanks (T-64) at the railway station in Kostiantynivka.

A heavy weapons permanent storage site beyond the respective withdrawal lines in a non-government-controlled area of Luhansk region:

  • 7 towed howitzers (D-30 Lyagushka, 122mm) remained missing.

On December 16th:

In violation of the withdrawal lines:

  • 18 self-propelled howitzers (2S1 Gvozdika, 122mm) and six anti-tank guns (MT-12 Rapira, 100mm) at the railway station in Kostiantynivka (60km north of Donetsk);
  • a surface-to-air missile system (9K35 Strela-10) near Hnutove (20km north-east of Mariupol); and
  • a surface-to-air missile system (9K31 Strela-1) near Starohnativka (51km south of Donetsk).

Beyond the withdrawal line but outside designated storage sites:

  • 11 tanks (T-72) at the railway station in Kostiantynivka;
  • a self-propelled anti-aircraft system (2K22 Tunguska) at the railway station in Rubizhne (84km north-west of Luhansk).

Weapons storage sites beyond the respective withdrawal lines in government-controlled areas of Donetsk region:

  • 12 multiple launch rocket systems (MLRS) (BM-21 Grad, 122mm), a surface-to-air missile system (9K35) and a tank (T-64) were present;
  • 23 MLRS (BM-21), two surface-to-air missile systems (9K35) and a self-propelled howitzer (2S1) remained missing.

On December 17th:

In violation of the withdrawal lines:

  • Ten self-propelled howitzers (seven 2S1 and three 2S3 Akatsiya, 152mm) at the railway station in Kostiantynivka;
  • Two self-propelled howitzers (2S3) heading south-west on road H-20 near Kostiantynivka;
  • Five towed howitzers (D-30 Lyagushka, 122mm) on a train near Bakhmut (formerly Artemivsk, 67km north of Donetsk);
  • Three self-propelled howitzers (2S3) heading south on road H-20 near Romanivka (41km north of Donetsk).

Beyond the withdrawal lines but outside designated storage sites:

  • A surface-to-air missile system (9K33 Osa) in Kalchyk (24km north of Mariupol).

In addition to the continued military build-up in the Donbass region, on December 18th, the UN General Assembly approved a resolution on the militarization of Crimea. The resolution voiced “grave concern over the progressive militarization of Crimea” as well as “over reports of the continuing destabilization of Crimea owing to transfers by the Russian Federation of weapon systems, including nuclear-capable aircraft and missiles, weapons, ammunition and military personnel to the territory of Ukraine.” Thus, essentially showing that Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko has his patrons’ support.

In late November, the head of the People’s Militia of the Luhansk People’s Republic (LNR) Mikhail Filiponenko reported that instructors from the USA, Canada and Europe arrived at the contact line in the Donbass to train Ukrainian officers.

These come in addition to reports by the military command of the Donetsk People’s Republic (DPR), which claimed that they had received intelligence regarding several scenarios of a Ukrainian offensive in Donbass on December 4th.

Furthermore, in an interview with Radio Komsomolskaya Pravda on December 17th, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov warned that the Kiev regime is preparing for provocations along the border with Crimea. He vowed that Russia would not wage war against Ukraine.

“I am sure there will be more provocations,” he warned. “”[Ukrainian President Pyotr] Poroshenko is planning an armed provocation on the border with Russia, on the border with Crimea during the last ten days of December.”

He also noted that Russia cannot recognize the LPR and DPR, because if it does so, “Ukraine would be abandoned to the Nazis.”

“You want to recognize the LPR and DPR? And what’s next? To lose the rest of Ukraine and abandon it to the Nazis?” he said, when asked why Russia refused to recognize these self-proclaimed republics.

On its part,the US expanded its intelligence gathering missions in the Black Sea, following the November 25th incident.

US Special Representative for Ukraine Kurt Volker claimed that the idea of even more sanctions on Russia is “gaining traction.”

Volker told reporters that in Europe, “the notion that there needs to be a response and some additional sanctions and listing of names would occur seems to be one that’s gaining some traction.”

“I would not be surprised at all to see that happen in the next month or two,” he added.

After the November 25th standoff between the Ukrainian Navy and the Russian Coast guard south of the Kerch Strait, Ukraine has stepped up accusations of “Russian aggression” and has claimed that Russia is amassing troops in Crimea, calling for help and deployments from NATO and the US. It also banned the entry of all Russian men aged 16-60 into Ukraine.

The Kiev regime also imposed martial law in 10 regions bordering Russia, the DPR, LPR and Moldova. The martial law is supposed to expire on December 26th. However local elections in the regions were postponed. It is possible that Poroshenko wishes for another escalation to be able to impose a further and more wide-ranging martial law, to avoid the upcoming March 31st Presidential election, which he’s likely to lose.

It does appear that the escalation is drawing near, or it is highly likely that one would take place. The only ones refusing to admit the narrative is real are Ukraine and its Western patrons, who are clearly orchestrating it.

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  • Daniel Miller

    if Ukraine is stupid enoth to try and attack Crimea they are dead meat.

    • potcracker2588

      please dont forget, that ukraine posseses enough former soviet/russian weapon systems, which when used, can be a pain in the ass….winning lolol not in a long shot, but still a pain in the ass..

      these weapon systems include :OTR-Totchka, tactical balistic missile;9k-52 Luna M, tactical balistic missile;Bm 21 Grad, artllery rocket;thousands of Howitzer artllery like 2S22 or 2S19 or 2S3 and many others;
      they also have pretty good air defense capabilities such as the S-300 or the TOR system.
      f tanks of various types including T-80,T-72 etc..

      if u add to that equation the logistics and various secret/spy info. on russian/rebel troop movements and bases, this can get ugly.Again… ukraine , even with the help of nato is no match what so ever to russian troops, but can be a pain i n the ass.

      • Promitheas Apollonious

        yes and they use them in donbass and not only and look where it got them. Also what they have is ancient weapon systems, that never been upgraded or are most of them in usable condition and I do know what I am saying but even if they was only maybe 15-20% the max of the population of ukraine will go to war against the russians if that many.

      • Nosferatu

        While that is true, Russian superiority is overwelhming in every area. Plus big part of non nazi UA soldiers will not fight against rusian army and big part of those who will not fight will actualy switch sides and help to liberate Ukraine from the west.

  • BL

    Are the kikes determined to start WWIII?

    • potcracker2588

      look at the fake economics of countries such as the usa or uk….they are dead broke, check out the last UN report about poverty in the uk…millions are in dire need of food banks ,social housing etc….. look at france too, totally broke country…….
      and thats the danger we all face…who knows what these psychpaths are up to , once they stand against the wall.

      • Promitheas Apollonious

        suicide?

      • occupybacon

        UK and US used to flood USSR with starving refugees. It’s happening again.

        • Tudor Miron

          Elaborate?

          • occupybacon

            Would you be able to understand more?

          • Tudor Miron

            Little ukro :) Where you studied I refused to teach. But don’t bother – have not time for clueless mix of bandero-western prpaganda. Boring.

    • FlorianGeyer

      Yes.

  • Tudor Miron

    This time Russia would not stop DNR/LNR from marching up to Kiev as we did it after Debaltsevo disaster than. Ukro’s should prepare for cauldrons again.

    • occupybacon

      lel

  • Dick Von Dast’Ard

    All that Kiev terror hardware could be taken out within hours.
    Could Poroshenko survive another humiliation, would the ‘advisers’ be discouraged for the future?

  • meridius

    If Novorussyia army manages somehow to take Mariupol, Berdyansk and Melitopol on counterattack, the odds are they will go all the way to the eastern bank of the Don river and provide a land bridge to Crimea. I think with a little Russian support ( electronic warfare, intelligence gathering and perhaps Iskander missiles strike on military depots and battle management posts) this goal is within their reach. This attempt would be certainly worth the effort if for no other reason than to secure the water supply to Crimea which has been a big issue ever since the coup d’etat in March 2014. A halfhearted attack of the Ukrainian armed forces at this point a desirable as this would force the Russian hands. Russians engage too much into diplomacy for an area so close to their boarders.

    • John Brown

      Russia wants the north stream gas pipeline to be completed before this happens.

      • Nosferatu

        They do, but this is not such a priority that they would sacrifice Donbass because of it…..

        • John Brown

          Yes Russia will defend the Donbass but will not back a counter coup in Ukraine until the north stream gas pipeline is completed.