The real number of COVID-19 cases in Intaly could be 5,000,0000, according to a study which polled people with symptoms who have not been tested, and up to 10,000,000 or even 20,0000,000 after taking into account asymptomatic cases, according to Carlo La Vecchia, a Professor of Medical Statistics and Epidemiology at the Statale di Milano University.
This data confirms earlier reports that the real number of COVID-19 cases in the country as much higher than 119,827 confirmed COVID-19 cases (as of April 4). At the same the real death rate % is much lower.
According to reports, the real number of deaths in Italy could be around 60,000. Thus, the mortality rate from COVID-19 would be much lower (around 25 times less) than the case fatality rate based solely on confirmed COVID-19 cases.
Pandemic Of Fear (28.03.2020):
The world is in panic over the coronavirus (COVID-19) outbreak Most of the states have imposed unprecedented measures, including locking down big cities and halting international flights, to contain the pandemic.
On March 28, the total number of confirmed COVID-19 ceases globaly reached 629,467. 28,963 people died from the desease, while 138,085 others recovered. These numbers show that about 4.6% of people with confirmed COVID-19 cases died, but the real death rate from the new coronavirus remains unclear. In many cases, people go through COVID-19 deasease without a real threat to their health and life like in the case of an acute respiratory viral infection. So, they are not tested for the COVID-19.
According to the study published on February 18 in the China CDC Weekly, the death rate from COVID-19 is around 2.3% in mainland China. The New England Journal of Medicine published another study of about 1,100 hospitalized patients in China. It found that the overall death rate was slightly lower, around 1.4%.
Furthermore, the death rate for COVID-19 appears to vary by location and an individual’s age. For example, as of March 28 in Italy there were 86,498 confirmed COVID-19 cases and 9,134 people died. Therefore, the death rate there stands at about 10.55%. Such a high number is a result of the fact that many of COVID-19-infected people in Italy is older people (65yo+) that already have health issues and thus remain in the group of risk in the event of any new deasease.
For example, the CDC’s Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report study says that 45% of hospitalizations, 53% of admissions to the intensive care unit (ICU), and 80% of deaths associated with COVID-19 were among adults aged 65 years and older.
Igor Alekseevich Gundarov, a Doctor of Medicine, professor, member of the Russian Academy of Natural Sciences, candidate of philosophical sciences, a specialist in the field of epidemiology and medical statistics, notes that the new coronavirus expansion may be linked with the previous successes in the field of combating the flue. The new virus just filled the created vacuum. According to him, the current crisis (and the panic) is a result of the specific media coverage and political-motivated decisions of particular actors.
As an example he provides the following numbers. In the 1990s, there were 4-7 million season flue in Russia every year. In the 2000s, the yearly number reuced to 400,000-50,000 cases. Gundarov added that 30,000-35,000 people die from the pneumonitis every year. However, nobody announced a national-wide emergency and locked down then country in the previous years.
The death toll from the COVID-19 is also a result of the pneumonitis, which it causes. Gundarov, says the death toll from the pneumonitis did not grow in 2020 despite the COVID-19 outbreak. Furthemore, 30,000-35,000 people dead in Russia from the pneumonitis every yar is higher than the total current global COVID-19 death toll.
Another Russian expert, Aleksand Evsinin notes that the chaos and administrative collapse because of the COVID-19 outbreak in some European countries and even the US is a result of the wrong organizational decisions (like attempts to move all ptients to a single hospital in the entire country) and the lack of propper anti-pandemic measures. For example, he claims that the concentration of all patients in a very few hospitals led to the expected lack of medical supplies and equipment in this particular area.
President Donald Trump signed an order allowing the Pentagon to call National Guard members and former troops back to active duty to fight the COVID-19 pandemic:
The COVID-19 outbreak is an apparent threat, which cannot be ignored. However, another threat, which could be even higher than the one from the COVID-19 desease, is the current pandemic of fear fueled and instigated by mainstream media and some governments.
The modern informational society already evolved to the stage when our world turned into a kind of supernational neuronet. The topology of this is close to the human’s brain. If we build a rough model, it would look this way: neurons – personalities, signals – flows of information that pierce through the modern world, lipoid metabolism – the monetary system. And this supernational neuronet is currently paralyzed by the fear of the death because of the COVID-19 outbreak and the public hysteria over it. If the panic is not overcome and the situation develops in the current direction, it may lead to the irreparable harm to this globa neuronet and instigate the already existing negative tendencies (like the deterioration of the global security, the collapse of the system of international relations, the economic crisis, the threat of new wars). However, if some powers find resources and the political will to overcome the current crisis, they will find themselves on the leading position in the ‘post-COVID-19’ period.
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