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Putin Is Unlikely To Trust Erdoğan Despite Western Pressure Mounting On Turkey

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Putin Is Unlikely To Trust Erdoğan Despite Western Pressure Mounting On Turkey

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Turkey now needs Russia as it struggles to juggle multiple geopolitical-military fronts

Written Paul Antonopoulos, independent geopolitical analyst

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan said on Thursday that unlike his relationships with George W. Bush, Barack Obama and Donald Trump, which “worked well,” he has “not gotten off to a good start” with his U.S. counterpart Joe Biden since his arrival in the White House on January 20. Erdoğan also vented that the source of his frustration with Washington was the removal of Turkey from the F-35 fighter project two years ago after purchasing the Russian-made S-400 air defense system. Turkey is also frustrated at Washington’s Syria policy and newfound enthusiasm to be involved in the Nagorno-Karabakh issue in a meaningful way.

The acquisition of the S-400 system did not only result in Turkey’s expulsion from the F-35 program, but also led to U.S. sanctions last year. Ankara claims to have already paid $1.4 billion towards 100 of the stealth fighter jets. Many Turkish military contractors were to also be involved in the project. Yet, despite the sanctions and removal from the F-35 program, the Turkish president remains steadfast in his decision to acquire the S-400 system. In fact, he plans to purchase more units of the air defense system.

“For us, the S-400 affair is done. It is not possible to go back on that. The United States must understand. We, Turkey, are honest, but unfortunately, the United States were not and are not,” he said, adding that Ankara would go “knocking on other doors” so that Turkey can “purchase what it needs for its defense.”

It appears that one of the doors that Erdoğan will be knocking on is that of his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin.

The two leaders are due to meet in the Black Sea resort city of Sochi on September 29. Erdoğan said that he would discuss with Putin bilateral relations and Syria, particularly the situation in Idlib. In his statement, he said that the pair “will make a decision on the fate of Turkish-Russian relations. We will also discuss Syria.” The Turkish president stressed that he “has not seen any Russian mistake towards our relations.”

Putin Is Unlikely To Trust Erdoğan Despite Western Pressure Mounting On Turkey

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It raises the question whether Moscow would be willing to trust Erdoğan, especially given that his friendly rhetoric can just as easily turn vicious. It is recalled that Turkey is responsible for the deaths of many Russian military personnel in Syria, attempted to change the power balance of the South Caucasus out of Moscow’s favor by enthusiastically encouraging and backing Azerbaijan to capture Armenian-held Nagorno-Karabakh, and undermined Russian interests in Africa by propping up the then Libyan Muslim Brotherhood government.

Although a variety of actors, such as NATO, Israel and the Peninsula Arab countries, all initially conspired together to support the war against the Syrian state, a decade later and the war is continuing mostly because of Turkey’s unilateral aiding, training and financing of jihadist forces in northern Syria. Venting his frustration, Erdoğan would in fact claim the opposite and say that “Biden is transporting weapons to YPG terrorists operating in Syria.” The People’s Protection Units (YPG) is the Syrian branch of the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK) – but the YPG are directly supported by Washington. Ankara considers the PKK and its affiliations as terrorist organizations because of their calls for Kurdish independence or autonomy, as well as equal human rights.

Putin Is Unlikely To Trust Erdoğan Despite Western Pressure Mounting On Turkey

Members of the People’s Protection Units (YPG)

The U.S. has effectively been locked out of the Syrian quagmire, having failed to dislodge Bashar al-Assad from power or weaken Russian and Iranian influence in the region. They now only control areas held by the YPG in Eastern Syria. This region also happens to be Syria’s food bowl and source of domestic energy, something that the U.S. weaponizes against the Syrian government.

Russia and Turkey have competing interests in Syria, with the former wanting to maintain the decades long status quo and the latter attempting to reconquer, through hard and soft power, its former imperial Ottoman possession. However, Turkey has shown in the past that it is willing to work alongside Russia and Iran in the context of the Astana Platform on the Syrian file to wane and limit U.S. influence on the peace process. As disappointing as it may be for Turkey as it is desperately attempting to become a Great Power, the reality is that its presence in Syria depends on Russia.

Putin Is Unlikely To Trust Erdoğan Despite Western Pressure Mounting On Turkey

International Meeting On Syrian Settlement in Astana, 2017

Despite permeating issues between Moscow and Ankara, particularly because of Turkey’s policies regarding the South Caucasus, Ukraine and other areas of interests, there are actual opportunities for deepening ties and collaboration.

Following positive remarks by Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan on the potential reconciliation between Armenia and Turkey, Erdoğan announced that Ankara will soon take some steps to establish a platform with six countries to create a regional synergy to resolve issues. It can be assumed that these six countries are Turkey, Russia, Iran, Georgia, Azerbaijan and Armenia.

Effectively, as Turkey’s economy continues to tumble, it no longer has the capabilities to operate on multiple fronts at the same time. It is likely that Erdoğan wants a new regional format to relieve a pressure front knowing full well that the U.S. and France plan to exploit the Nagorno-Karabakh issue against Turkey.

In this way, Turkey is once again turning to Russia to relieve mounting pressure from the West. Although Erdoğan’s suggestions of creating a regional platform to resolve issues is a positive step in the right direction, given his consistent untrustworthy behavior and betrayals in the past, Moscow would on the one hand be enthusiastic about such a bloc, but will also be wary knowing that Turkey very often turns back to the West easily if it can gain any kind of advantage, especially if it related to domestic considerations as his ratings continue to reach new lows.

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Peppe il Sicario

The Russians should sell another S400 to Turkey, but secretly include a built in mini-nuclear device to detonate once the back-stabbing Turds try to reverse engineer it or let their Americ-nt masters inspect it. Then, say “Ooops, sorry about that!”

Last edited 23 days ago by Peppe il Sicario
Daniel

Don’t tell this secret to anyone because maybe Turkey is reading SF,

Last edited 22 days ago by Daniel
jens holm

He is scottish. In the summertime they only wear belts, so they can handle their bagpipes better:)

jens holm

One of those modifications seemes to have hit You. It Works:)

Peppe il Sicario

Hey, if it ain’t Jens “Jizz Hole” Holm again!!! What happened they closed the local sperm bank where you work???

JC Denton

He drank all of it. Now he eats dicks of refugees again

Ivanus59

Get these insane invaders the fuck out of Idlib, Al Bab and Afrin.
Doing so will then free up enough resources to be able to bring the SDF-occupied parts of Syria back into the government control and kick the Amer oil-stealing terrorist invaders out!

Last edited 23 days ago by Ivanus59
jens holm

Assad made those many millions insane and should retreat to areas supported by him and the bad artist.

Ahson

Let us kill them now…….quietly…….don’t worry too much.

block

Unfortunately the turks as a “gateway” nation decided to start digging their own grave. Bite every hand that feeds you and your lifespan becomes very limited.

jens holm

And culture is some stuff making furniture shine too.

I can read you are no cannibal.

Chess Master

They have common interest like staying presidents as long as possible because after that, the bullet won’t wait much.

hmm

a bullet is worth more than you tho

Realpolitik

Realpolitik at its best. Putin is not naïve to believe Erdogan, what a ludicrous idea! Nor he believes Turkey will ever leave NATO; with all its neo ottoman crap, Erdogan knows very well that Turkey is nothing without USA&EU money and protection. He’s just using Russia to make America jealous, just as he use Ukraine to make Russia jealous.

But Putin just has no alternative: opposition in Turkey is almost entirely under american influence/control. With Erdogan you can at least make a deal or two, yes he will break them, yes we will backstab you at first opportunity, but with some new, liberal, pro-western turkish government there will be no deals at all. They will just unquestionably obey american orders, like all their vassals in Europe, or Japan, Australia… so in the end, keep your enemies close, and better the devil you know than the devil you don’t….

Last edited 22 days ago by Realpolitik
block

Well said. One problem. The turks are acutely aware if they upset the Russians geostrategic ambitions and economy they are finished.

Do not forget who is in the drivers seat. The turks are momentarily being “tolerated” by many Eurasian nations. Not one, many. Learn and adjust your reality to the correct equation.

Last edited 22 days ago by block
Ahson

block, Iran can undo turkey real quick, if it ever came down to it. Both Russia/ China will back Iran in this endeavor too. However, it will create a humanitarian drama comprising 80 million guppu moghal. Who da fuck wants that? It will be a nightmare of 80 million refugees and fat asiatic cutty bitches and ugly uighur chinku bastards at Iran’s doorstep. This is what’s holding Iran back. Otherwise…….who cares.

Last edited 22 days ago by Ahson
jens holm

I dont believe in Your scenario.

Turkey can turn around some and with a low price be more affiliated with EU again.

Iran is not as strong as You assume. Here Nato can give Turkey a very big helping hand as well too.

How it is right now are too many bad choises spreading out too much. I think they easy can regain parts of that, if they decide they need it.

Ahson

lol…..they on your payroll with half promises, just like in Syria no?…….lol……We’s independent. You got that?

Last edited 22 days ago by Ahson
Max

Or its worst?

jens holm

Total replacing the presidencies with Ministers of Human Rights.

jens holm

The last 5 lines are far Out.

jens holm

USA said remove or reduce the Assad regime. It has.

Only blind people cant see that on maps. One of three Syrians are not even in Syria as well. Several millions are internal refugees as well.

Ahson

yeah but 75% Syria in Iran’s hands……don’t matter where the jihadists go. We own the rump and reclaiming more by the month no?

Last edited 22 days ago by Ahson
Z

You are blind because your head is always deep in Yankee butthole. USA never said anything about ‘reducing’ whatever that means, regime change was their main and only objective, just as in Libya. And they failed. Occupying parts of Syria is just their pure malice, their reserve plan: to bleed Syria as long as possible, to ruin their economy and their lives as much as possible, to kiII as many Syrians possible, to prolong this conflict forever. And of course never to allow Russia to claim victory and end the conflict. USA, Israel and Turkey are the only reason why Syrian people still suffer.

Ahson

Well put……don’t mind jensi’. His issue is that he won’t admit facts. Just pig headed.

farbat

erdogan is truely the ungrateful evil gollum that he was compared to in the past

Putin the poodle

put loves all goat molesters

Daniel

Erdogan must get Something out of Syria to leave Syria otherwise it will be suicide to leave Syria barehand and just go, this Something must be Big enough to satisfy Erdogan/Turkey/Turkish people,

farbat

putin should disarm unilaterally large parts of russias nuclear weapons stockpile to bring the number to a reasonable amount of nukes to show the world that russia is not suicidal and mad like the usa and those who seek to behave like it and russia has to repent even more to become an example of a sustainable and a just civilization because in turkey you see how not to do it and all these psychos are after today is get their hands on nukes to destroy things even more that is the sad reality of oppressors they can only rule over ruins

Last edited 22 days ago by farbat
Erdoganist

Bullshit analysis!

do not know who admin is. but have now not seen an objective analysis yet. always pro assadist pro russian analysis! Erdogan’s Turkey has stopped Russian pressure on 3 fronts, so Turkey has managed to show that they can do more than what the scribe writes. something completely different is that russia and the usa will probably have to leave a syria one day. but the Turks remain forever. so do not rejoice for too long losers!

Me9999

Putin will sell more S-400 and possibly also SU-75 to Turkey.
If Putin can take some money of Turkey he will but don’t expect any technology exchange.
Putin is a good negotiator and knows how to use leverage..

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