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Putin Helps Erdogan Climb Down from the Tree with a Ceasefire Agreement

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Putin Helps Erdogan Climb Down from the Tree with a Ceasefire Agreement

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Written by Elijah J. Magnier@ejmalrai; Originally appeared at his blog: ejmagnier.com

President Vladimir Putin agreed to meet his Turkish counterpart Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who came to Moscow seeking a ceasefire he could not announce unilaterally on the battlefield, where he has lost momentum. Thousands of Turkish soldiers were pushed onto the frontline against the Syrian army and its allies because the tens of thousands of jihadists deployed in Idlib and its rural surroundings were unable to defend Turkish interests in the northwest of Syria. President Erdogan came out of the six-hour negotiations at best a winner in some respects but with his wings clipped. President Putin skillfully showed the Turkish President the weakness of his case. Syria will remain united.

A well-informed source said that “Erdogan wanted a ceasefire in Idlib but could not announce it himself because it would have cost him dearly domestically. He lost the war when he failed to recover Saraqeb and recover the entire 70-kilometre-long highway linking Aleppo to Damascus, known as the M5. He wanted Putin to bring him down from the tree. The Russian President understood and saved his business partner from humiliation.”

President Erdogan agreed on the Astana agreement as to the basis for a deal, recognising the role of Iran, who will soon organise a summit of the three presidents. Putin and Erdogan did not agree on all points, in particular on Turkey’s desire to establish a buffer zone in the Syrian Kurdish province and to dislodge the Kurds from Ayn al-Arab.

Erdogan’s argument about the refugees flocking to his country was easily dismantled.  Putin understands that Turkey is organising the transfer to Greece of Afghans, Somalis, Iraqis and other refugees along with Syrians. The Turkish aim is to pressure the European community to honour its financial commitments.

Most importantly, President Putin gave President Erdogan no room to manoeuvre on the M5 and M4 (Aleppo-Latakia road), the two roads that were supposed to be cleared in October 2018. Erdogan had established further observation points, unforeseen by the Astana agreement, to expand the control of Jihadists. The Syrian army liberated the M5 during the last months of battle when over 210 cities and villages returned to the power of the government forces. Erdogan agreed with Moscow to open the M4, now under the jihadists’ control. This is a significant victory for the Syrian army notwithstanding a serious doubt that the jihadists will agree to secure civilian circulation on the road. The Russian and Turkish troops are expected to patrol the road after the 15th of this month.

If Turkey fails to respect the deal and allows the reopening of the M4, Russia and its allies will not hesitate to regain control of it by force, but this time without the Turkish army’s intervention. Ankara sent its army to support the jihadists and stop the Syrian army’s advance. It has failed to do so. Erdogan came to Russia at his own repeated request. He can no longer rebuff his promises following the harsh battle of Idlib these last months. Putin sharply told him that death of the 33 soldiers in the convoy targeted in the last week of February was due to the Turkish army’s presence along with the jihadists and the failure to inform Russia of their position, as agreed between Russia and Turkey. Erdogan had no answer to this argument, which makes him accept both the responsibility for the death of his soldiers and the embarrassment of being in the company of jihadists he was supposed to fight against. Overtly, the Turkish President accused the Syrian army of all violations, to avoid domestic accountability for the death of his soldiers.

Putin pushed Erdogan to recognise his failure to follow through on his promise to separate the jihadists from the rebels, an apparent failure to respect the Astana agreement.

Putin Helps Erdogan Climb Down from the Tree with a Ceasefire Agreement

Will Turkey manage to separate jihadists from rebels? Will the M4 be cleared? It is no longer critical whether Turkey abides by its commitment. If it fails to do so, Russia will resume its military operations and will push towards Idlib city. Erdogan will no longer be in a position to defend his rebels and jihadists because he will be putting his army at the mercy of Russian and Syrian bombing.

Erdogan committed the biggest mistake of his life by pushing his troops onto the battlefield: he has permitted the Syrian army to bomb Turkish positions and destroy Turkish armed Unmanned Combat Air Vehicles (UCAVs, known as drones). The Syrian military collected Turkish military assets as spoils of war and killed Turkish soldiers and officers with impunity. The redline has been broken, and the confrontation can be repeated without hesitation from Damascus if ever Turkey fails to respect its commitment signed in Moscow.

After the Putin-Erdogan meeting, the jihadists are aware that Turkey is no longer in a position to defend them or their cause. They are left with few choices: fight and die in Syria or leave via the north-east where Turkey is still holding Syrian territory.

The fourteen Turkish observation points in the area liberated by the Syrian army will remain protected and in place as long as Erdogan wishes, courtesy of the Czar of the Kremlin who wants to avoid further humiliating his Turkish guest. Russia is taking great pains not to humiliate the Turkish President and is looking for his collaboration and a long-term relationship.

Putin was aware that NATO, the US and the EU had turned their back on Erdogan. The Turkish President came to surrender Idlib, save face, and ask for more concessions in north-east Syria where the US is still presently stealing Syrian oil. Putin left a door open to the Kurds for when, like the prodigal son, they return to the arms of the Syrian government. The Russian President is aware that the US cannot stay for very long in Syria. Therefore, he can’t give Erdogan any promise to support a long-term Turkish presence in Syria, notably when both Presidents agreed on and announced their respect for Syria’s integrity and unity. Erdogan contested Kurdish participation in the constitutional reform committee. This time he has accepted so that Russia can speed-up the reforms with the help of the Kurds. The goal is to help them come out from under the US umbrella.

A strong Putin offered his hand to the weakened Erdogan.  His attempts to play on the Levant territory marked an incursion into the Kremlin’s arena. The Russian President is aware that the relationship with his Turkish partner must be handled very cautiously and that Erdogan’s promises cannot be taken at face value. But Turkey is also aware that Russia will hit harder the next time the Astana agreement and its annexes are violated, and that Putin’s allies in Syria will be more vigilant in any future confrontation against the Turkish army in Syria. One thing is sure: the jihadists have lost a father. Erdogan – who took upon him the spearhead role in overthrowing the Syrian state in 2011 – can no longer offer his protection but is himself looking to come out of his predicament with as few bruises as possible. The time has come for Turkey to leave Idlib.

Proofread byC.G.B.

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  • Zionism = EVIL

    Actually, little Putin saved the ErDOG from a certain coup as the Turkeys were being battered in Idlib and even NATO had rejected them. Now the Turkeys will rearm their terrorists and cause more mayhem in Syria and the region. These ceasefires only help the enemies of Russia, Iran and Syria.

    • Assad must stay

      I agree, SAA should never be forced to stop bombing or shooting, if they are truly tired and need rest or rearming or refueling thats another matter, but the rats will get resupplied whether theres a ceasefire or not, the same case for SAA/russia, both sides are continuously being resupplied but at least when theres no ceasrfire SAA/russia is winning

      • Zionism = EVIL

        You know I watched all independent videos and talked to a lot of military folks and each agreed that the Turkeys were humiliated by SAA and its allies at every tactical level. The Turkeys had a 1:5 manpower advantage in Idlib and despite that SAA kept on repelling every attack and even advanced. As I said the Turkey goat fuckers are no better than their Saudi masters.

        • Assad must stay

          Yea I bet, who in their right mind would want to fight for or protect jihadi rats? Not even the torki army wants to it seems haha

        • lilbenavidez

          Military folks? You mean random Joe at some cafe in rural Pakistan.

          If Turkey and Russia had a direct confrontation it would have been WW3 thats why they perferred the ceasefire both countries lose and gain nothing from that. SAA was literally saved and if Putin leaves Syria for Erdogan they will fall faster than Usain bolt which still could happen.

          Keep us updated on these rural tales from an irrelevant 3rd world cafe

          • Zionism = EVIL

            Remember idiot, Pakistanis defeated the USSR and humiliated it.

            US forces block large Russian military convoy in northeast Syria

          • lilbenavidez

            Not your type of Pakistani. Your a minority in Pakistan. Just don’t get yourself arrested for shouting death to ppl on this boards. Your not gonna like what they will do to you

          • Zionism = EVIL

            Sorry moron, not a Pakistani, but you surely are LOL. BTW, how is the Wahhabi madrassa going? You kids are a hoot. Where did you learn Hindlish LOL, It is YOU ARE….and THESE BOARDS …and “gonna” is slang for the uneducated idiots like yourself ….ROFLMAO

    • lilbenavidez

      This is what happens when a group of deluded people lock themselves inside a tiny room and tell themselves all sorts of fantasies in order to sleep better at night. What truly happened is that your arse got saved by Putin and no this is actully the second time you got saved by the Russians. First it was from the Rebels who ran through your beloved Assad, Hezbullah and Iranian militias who got sincerely devestated by the rebels before the entry of Russia. Now Russia again stood in front of Turkish assault that could have ended Assad altogether and hack if Russia withdraws there is nobody to save you in that region.

      The Rebels can run thru Assad in a second wave if Russia is not in the picture? Who is gonna stop them. You couldn’t stop them first time you ain’t stopping them now either

      • Zionism = EVIL

        Sure little boy :) good job indeed.

      • Brother Ma

        Who cares! Wahhabi and Erdogan turkeys got killed! Good enough for me.

    • Redadmiral

      I believe at long last Err-Dog-1’s tail is firmly between his legs. His Jihadi’s over the next days and weeks will be taken to Libya to their extermination centre. Those of them operating with 2 brain cells or more will make contact with the Russian MPs on the M4 highway to reconcile their position before being used as target practice by Gadaffi’s Army led by Field Marshall Khalifa Haftar. This Year Idlib. However, I also expect the Syrian army to cross the Euphrates and return to al-Raqqa, Deir al-Zour and Hasaka. This will also be the time when Yanki Coyotes leave al Tanf… Next Year Jerusalem

  • Ronald

    Well written piece, thank you E. J. Magnier.

    So, 14 OP’s for the Turks, not 12.

    • Zionism = EVIL

      The Turkey goat fuckers were on the ropes in Syria after losing over 200 dead and 600 wounded and the SAA had all of the OPs surrounded and now these losers get a reprieve, unbelievable.

    • klove and light

      Turkey has 36 miliatry Posts in Idlib!!!!!

      List of observation posts[edit]
      The following is a non-exhaustive list of observation posts and other military installations of the Turkish Armed Forces in Idlib:[9][10][11][a]

      Location
      Order of Construction
      Date of Construction
      Number designation per Turkish Army
      Date of encirclement by SAA

      Salva village near Al-Dana
      1
      13 October 2017
      No. 1

      Samaan village near Darat Izza
      2
      23 October 2017
      No. 2

      Aquil Mountain near Darat Izza
      3
      19 November 2017
      No. 3
      17 February 2020

      Al-Eiss near Al-Hadher
      4
      5 February 2018
      No. 6
      8 February 2020

      Tell Touqan
      5
      9 February 2018
      No. 7
      5 February 2020

      Sarman
      6
      15 February 2018
      No. 8
      21 December 2019

      Anadan
      7
      17 March 2018
      No. 4
      16 February 2020

      Zaytuneh
      8
      3 April 2018
      No. 12

      Murak
      9
      7 April 2018
      No. 9
      22 August 2019

      Rashidin in Western Aleppo
      10
      9 May 2018
      No. 5
      29 January 2020

      Zawiyah (Sheir Maghar) in southern Idlib
      11
      14 May 2018
      No. 10
      27 February 2020

      Ishtabrak in southwestern Idlib
      12
      16 May 2018
      No. 11

      Maar Hattat
      13
      20 August 2019
      Unofficial
      1 February 2020

      South of Saraqib
      14
      30 January 2020
      Unofficial
      5-6 February 2020

      North of Saraqib
      15
      30 January 2020
      Unofficial
      From 5-6 February until 27 February 2020
      From 1-2 March 2020

      East of Saraqib
      16
      1 February 2020
      Unofficial

      West of Saraqib near Tarnbah[12]
      17
      2 February 2020
      Unofficial
      From 5-6 February until 27 February 2020

      West of Saraqib near Msibin[13]
      18
      2 February 2020
      Unofficial

      Taftanaz Military Airbase
      19
      6 February 2020
      Unofficial

      Between Idlib City and Saraqib
      20
      7 February 2020
      Unofficial

      Al-Mastumah
      21[b]
      8 February 2020
      Unofficial

      Maarat Al-Naasan [14]
      22
      10 February 2020
      Unofficial
      13-14 February 2020

      Al-Jinah – Atareb [15]
      23
      11 February 2020
      Unofficial

      between Binnish and Taoum[16]
      24
      12 February 2020
      Unofficial

      Deir Sunbul in Jabal Al-Zawiya [17]
      25
      14 February 2020
      Unofficial

      Kafr Karmin west of Aleppo[18]
      26
      14 February 2020
      Unofficial

      West of Darat Izza
      27
      15 February 2020
      Unofficial

      Termanin [19]
      28
      14 February 2020
      Unofficial

      Al-Bardakly, between Sarmada and Al-Dana
      29
      17 February 2020
      Unofficial

      Nahlia village north of Ariha
      30
      17 February 2020
      Unofficial

      Mu’tarm west of Ariha[20]
      31
      17 February 2020
      Unofficial

      Sarmin [21]
      32
      18 February 2020
      Unofficial

      Al Barah [22]
      33
      24 February 2020
      Unofficial

      South of Kansafra [23]
      34
      24 February 2020
      Unofficial

      Bassams [24]
      35
      24 February 2020
      Unofficial

      Kafr Nashe [25]
      36
      5 March 2020
      Unofficial

  • The Objective

    Turkey must understand that it is only being used by NATO for the interest of the U.S and Europeans. they can never be a sincere partner to any Muslim country. It is better for Turkey to align with Russia and China than the U.S.

    Thankfully for Turkey, Russia is still interested in a long-term partnership. By giving Erdogan a face-saving out, Putin is making him realize that he does not have the support of NATO as he thought. It is clear from what just happened that Europeans are not willing to fight for any Muslim country even if it is a NATO member. Turkey should learn this. Thank God it came at a time when Turkey is not being attacked on its soil. Imagine if Turkey were to discover this European intent at a critical moment, like during an invasion.

    It is time Erdogan dumped the west fully. Mend ties with Putin (which will be easy) and buy more of Russian arms, cooperate more in defense, and develop nukes – NATO be damned.

    Erdogan should instead focus on leaning on Russia to persuade Assad to share power after the Syrian proxy war.

    • Zionism = EVIL

      Erdogan should be hanged for sheer incompetence along with the goat fucking kebab shop “generals” who despite overwhelming military superiority in numbers and material could not advance an inch into Idlib and lost every tactical engagement with the SAA and Hezbollah.

    • Redadmiral

      If you removed the last sentence your piece would be more Objective

  • Zionism = EVIL

    US just humiliated Russian forces again thanks to the Jew Putz Putin.

    US forces again block large Russian military convoy in northeast Syria

    According to the Syrian news reports, a large Russian military convoy was
    attempting to transport equipment by passing through the Tal Tamr
    Roundabout, when they were blocked by a U.S. patrol and forced to turn around.

    The Russian military convoy was reportedly trying to head towards Qamishli city when
    they were blocked by the U.S. patrol in the Al-Hasakah countryside.

  • Christian S

    Finest analyse by Magnier: though we should mention theres another way out for Al Qaida: Europe, timing is best for sultan to have terrorist flow into refugee stream and create the wanted NWO chaos in europe

  • klove and light

    blablablablablablablabla

    ever since 2017 december when the >FIRST BS AGREEMENT WAS SIGNED BETWEEN moslembrotherhhod, Zionist created and controlled ERDOGAN and the treacherous Zionist pig Putin…

    I reapeat for the brainwashed idiots here…..the FIRST Agreement was signed december 2017, and Turkey was supposed to FIGHT HTS and the other jihadi Groups….lololol… worked great-sarcasm out
    and it also said Turkey and Russia and Iran will RESPECT the territorial Integrity of the syrian arab republic……way to go treacherous Zionist pig Putin, in 2019 he makes another Agreement with erdogan on the Invasion and occupation of North east syria…..unreal pathetic treachrous ridiculous…..by all accounts…Putin broke his own Agreements and erdogan…does it Need to be mentioned, Turkey the number 1 Sponsor of ISIS and HTS, turkeyx the number 1 buyer of Isis oil, Turkey the num,ber 1 buyer of SDF oil,

    99% here are brainwashed bibi cock sucking Zionist Putin Lovers….go to ghell where your Father is!!!

  • klove and light

    BREAKING NEWS almasdar News a SAA News site

    ——————————————————————————————————————————–

    Home Syria Turkish military resumes large-scale build-up in Idlib: video
    Syria
    Turkish military resumes large-scale build-up in Idlib: video
    By News Desk –
    2020-03-09
    0

    BEIRUT, LEBANON (10:00 A.M.) – The Turkish military continued their build-up in the Idlib Governorate this week, despite the announcement of a ceasefire across this Syrian region.
    READ ALSO: Turkey is Using Idlib to Create Permanent Presence in Syria – Expert

    Ads by Revcontent
    According to reports from the Idlib front, the Turkish military sent several vehicles to the governorate over the last few days, increasing their presence in a number of areas around the Aleppo-Latakia Highway (M-4).
    Despite the arrival of more Turkish troops and equipment, the jihadist rebels have yet to withdrawal from the Aleppo-Latakia Highway, which may cause friction with the Russian military personnel that are conducting patrols along the roadway.
    Per the Moscow agreement between Vladimir Putin and Recep Tayyip Erdogan, all militant groups are supposed to withdraw north and move away from the Aleppo-Latakia Highway.

    https://youtu.be/G5k_JmtBz98

  • klove and light

    https://youtu.be/G5k_JmtBz98

    today Idlib…Breaking News….Turkey getting Ready for war…massive Military convoy of TAF Forces entering Idlib……

    From almasdar News a SAA News site

    great work treacherous Zionist pig Putin…….the russian Military Leadership should hang the motherfucker and burn him and send 50% of his ashes to bibi and 50% to erdogan!!
    fucking Zionist motherfuckers

    PS: i wonder what the 99% brainwashed Zionist cock suckers here will have as the next EXCUSE when TAF and SAA are in a full scale ………and by the way u sorry stupid morons, ( I hate the turks, wish they all died) if any direct full sclae war breaks out between SAA and TAF….TAF would roll over syria u sorry idiotic motherfuckers here……turkery has with greece the largest army BY FAR…..more than 100 times larger than SAA… so cut YOUR DUMM HOLLYWOOD rhetoric, this aint a movie!!!!
    and for gods sake accept the TRUTH….it waSNT me WHO DECIDED TO OK the turkish Invasion and occupation of AFRIN AND IDLIB…
    it was your treacherous Zionist bibi copck sucking pig PUTIN

  • Vollkrassmann

    Sounds all very plausible to me. Thx to the author!
    We learn: The Turkeys are no more able to act as they did in the very past, from 2011 until now – unless they want to be axx-kicked very hard and in a really face-losing way by Russian and Syrian military technology.
    Time to say good-bye, you ISIS-friends and beheader-protectors and enemies of your neighbor Syria. You have lost credit in the eyes of any decent citizen in this world, everyone could see what dirty game you have been playing and what sort of political animals you are. Shame on you!

  • Wegan

    Let’s not underestimate Erdogan’s motivations to continue the fight.

    If you are emotionally driven to re-build a lost empire centuries ago, no amount of continuous slaps from Putin will take you off the rails.
    What is needed is a knockout punch.

  • peter mcloughlin

    “A strong Putin offered his hand to the weakened Erdogan.”
    All the state players are skilfully avoiding the escalation nobody wants, so far successfully. But history is full of dire warnings.
    https://www.ghostsofhistory.wordpress.com/

  • Brother Ma

    Once the war is over all Turkmen of Syria are to be shot or kicked out of Syria en-masse. Of course the same goes for the Oghur Turks from China.

  • FlorianGeyer

    This is a balanced and realistic article.

    In a funny sort of way it also showed Erdogan as being somewhat pragmatic. Pragmatism within NATO has never been a strong point. :)

  • Kananda

    i dunno, guys. ERant DOG of ANkara is transfering batallion after batallion in Idlib.

  • goingbrokes

    Great article! More or less what I thought too, but Magnier manages to explain a few things really well. Particularly the part that because the Syrians and the Turks have drawn blood now, any move the Turks now make is no longer a surprise, is not met with hesitation, won’t cause any confusion, and will provoke the toughest response. The airspace is no longer neutral, but as a necessary response Idlib is now effectively a no-fly-zone for all but Syria and Russia, and sniping from beyond the Turkish border will not be tolerated. Legally, targets inside Turkish border are also legitimate targets now, and should not trigger article 5 of NATO as this is all the result of a foreign adventure that it was never a part of. It’s called the poison tree effect (all subsequent actions, claims and responses cannot claim legitimacy since the original cause was a crime). Natural law and Common Law should not and does not protect those who commit crimes.