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Prospects Of War In Persian Gulf Region

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Prospects Of War In Persian Gulf Region

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Since Donald Trump has been in office, Iran and the United States have faced the worst crisis in their relations since the fall of the pro-American Shah regime in 1979. The situation escalated in early May, when US sanctions came into full force. Tehran’s leaders made a number of harsh statements against America and its main ally in the region, Israel, after which an increase in pro-Iranian formations near American positions was noticed. At the beginning of May, Iran partially suspended the fulfillment of its obligations under the JCPOA [Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action – the 2015 nuclear deal] and abandoned the restrictions pertaining to enriched uranium and heavy water. In addition, Iran made it clear that, in the case of an escalation in tensions, it is able to destabilize oil supplies throughout  the Persian Gulf.

Prospects Of War In Persian Gulf Region

(Photo by Anthony Behar)

After a series of suspicious attacks on oil tankers on May 12 and June 13, the United States blamed Iran without providing any hard evidence. The diversions were given as the reason for the strengthening of the American military presence in the region. By tightening the pressure on the Islamic Republic, the United States aims to create the conditions necessary for the building of the anti-Iranian Middle Eastern strategic alliance (MESA) – a military bloc similar to NATO, for which America now expects loyalty and support from its local allies.

Iran is a major irritant to the two key American allies in the region – Saudi Arabia and Israel. Therefore, after the attacks, both countries immediately joined in the US accusations against Iran.

Israel is worried about Hezbollah in Lebanon and the Iranian military forces on the border with Syria. At the Herzliya Conference on July 1 Mossad chief Yossi Cohen said that in light of shared opposition to Iran and ‘Islamist terror groups’ a potentially one-time-only window of opportunity had opened for Israel to achieve a regional peace agreement. The work is already in progress. Yossi Cohen said that Jerusalem was to open a foreign ministry office in Muscat amid warming relations with Gulf nations. Further, Israeli Foreign Minister Yisrael Katz made a rare visit to Abu Dhabi, which does not have official ties with Israel, for a two-day UN climate meeting. While there, he met with an unnamed Emirati official to discuss bilateral ties as well as the Iranian threat.

Prospects Of War In Persian Gulf Region

Mossad chief Yossi Cohen

Saudi Arabia, in particular, is worried about Iran’s regional activities as represented by the Ansar Allah movement (the Houthis) in Yemen. On June 12, the Houthis launched a cruise missile at Abha international airport in southern Saudi Arabia. The Houthis also carried out successful raids in the southern Saudi province of Asir on June 17 and 18. In the course of the advance, they destroyed at least 11 vehicles of Saudi forces and captured loads of weapons. Saudi warplanes and attack helicopters carried out several airstrikes on Houthi positions in southern Asir in an attempt to repel the attacks. However, the airstrikes were not effective.

Prospects Of War In Persian Gulf Region

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After the Khashoggi case, the US Senate resolutions to stop support for the war in Yemen and the Stockholm truce agreement under Hodeida, it is unlikely that many are willing to go to war. Therefore, the Saudis are trying to draw international attention to Iran. The Crown Prince said that the Kingdom supported the re-imposition of US sanctions out of the belief that the international community needed to take a decisive stance against Iran. A senior UK official said an unnamed Saudi intelligence chief and the Kingdom’s senior diplomat Adel al-Jubeir pleaded with British authorities to carry out limited strikes on Iranian military targets. According to the official, the failed Saudi lobbying efforts took place only a few hours after Donald Trump had aborted a planned attack on Iran on June 22. On May 30, Saudi Arabia’s King Salman went on an anti-Iran tirade during an emergency meeting of Arab leaders hosted in Mecca. He urged the use of all means to stop the Iranian regime from regional interference.

The UAE has its own vision. Despite anti-Iranian statements made jointly with Saudi Arabia during the past three regional summits, the Emirates are not rushing to blame Iran for these attacks. UAE minister of state for foreign affairs Anwar Gargash stated that there is not enough evidence that Iran was responsible. Even after Iran hit an American drone on June 20, the Emirates continued to call for a diplomatic resolution of the crisis through negotiations. Anwar Gargash stressed that the crisis in the Gulf region requires collective attention. At the end of June, four Western diplomatic sources reported that the UAE had reduced troop levels in Yemen, where they are fighting the Houthis at the side of the Saudi Arabia, as the exacerbation of tensions threatens their own homeland security. An anonymous high-ranking Emirati official confirmed this information, but cited other reasons for the movement of troops. Responding to a question about whether tensions with Iran are behind this step, he said the decision was more connected with the cease-fire agreement in Hodeida in accordance with the UN-led peace pact, reached in December.

Prospects Of War In Persian Gulf Region

Anwar Gargash

In turn, Oman offered its mediation services in deescalating US-Iranian tensions. On June 12 Oman’s minister of state for foreign affairs Usuf bin Alawi visited Iraq. Spokesman Ahmad Sahhaf said that bin Alawi discussed solutions for regional challenges and added that Iraq had become a pivotal country because of its strategic relations with both Iran and the United States.

A week later, a similar visit was paid by Kuwait‘s Emir Sheikh Sabah Al Ahmad Al Sabah. He met with Iraqi President Barham Salih and Iraqi Prime Minister Adel Abdul-Mahdi. The leaders called for “wisdom and reason” in dealing with tensions in the region to avoid an escalation leading to clashes. Kuwait’s Permanent Representative to the UN Mansour Al-Otaibi did not mention who might be behind the attacks and called for an unbiased investigation into the matter, instead of jumping into hasty and baseless conclusions.

Despite its anti-Iranian sentiment, Bahrain fears Iran’s threats to close the Strait of Hormuz, through which about 30 percent of all exported world crude oil passes. Bahrain along with Qatar and Kuwait can supply oil for export only through this strait, since these countries have no other access to the sea. On June 15, at the summit of the Conference on Interaction and Confidence-Building Measures in Asia (CICA), Foreign Finance Minister Khaled bin Ahmed Al-Khalifa urged to refrain from measures that could undermine confidence and security on the main energy routes.

Although some Gulf countries do not like the regional activities of Iran, none of them want a real war. Three recent regional summits showed the differences between the countries of the Persian Gulf. In final statements, the Arab states expressed complete solidarity in opposing Iran, condemning all the recent attacks in the region, and supported any further Saudi Arabian actions to defend its territory. Thus, Jordan’s Ambassador Sufian Al-Qudah, stated that “any targeting of the security of Saudi Arabia is aimed at the security of Jordan and the entire region”. Making a thinly veiled threat, he also stated that Amman supports all measures taken by the Kingdom to maintain its security and to counter terrorism in all its forms and manifestations.

Prospects Of War In Persian Gulf Region

Missiles and drones showcased by Yemen’s Houthis

The meetings were supposed to show Tehran the unity of the Arabs and their readiness for decisive actions, but this did not work out. The wording of all three outcome documents varied in their rigidity with the expansion of the members of the meeting. For example, Kuwait and Oman did not participate in the formulation of the final GCC communiqué at all.

At the Arab League meeting, no mention was made of the attacked ships in the communique  and in order to condemn Iran the UAE even had to include the topic of disputed islands. The entire final part was focused on the Houthis rocket attack on Saudi Arabia, so the aggression against one of the countries was formally condemned. With the expansion of the number of participants the contradictions about their complaints against Iran were growing. The shelling of Saudi territory by Yemeni resistance forces is a compromise issue, since none of the participating countries wants to be attacked. The OIC summit brought total disappointment to the supporters of the anti-Iranian bloc: it was no longer possible to adopt all these resolutions there.

Prospects Of War In Persian Gulf Region

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As for Qatar, along with Kuwait and Oman it is not only not participating in the aggressive anti-Iranian rhetoric, but it is also beginning to express dissatisfaction with the efforts of Saudi Arabia and the UAE to dominate the region. Many expected that the attendance of Qatar at the summits was a sign of improved relations between Doha and the other Gulf states. But it was more a message that the blockade will not prevent Qatar from participating in region-wide meetings. In the aftermath of the summits, Qatari Foreign Minister Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani said that “no concrete steps” had resulted and questioned the unity called for by the other countries amid the ongoing blockade.

The achievement of a tough pan-Arab condemnation of Iran, which John Bolton had insisted on, failed even despite all the guarantees of protection he gave during his visits to the KSA and the UAE on the eve of the summits.

This desire of the United States to strengthen anti-Iranian sentiment is connected to the fact that the growing tensions allow Washington to increase military spending. As for foreign policy, the United States would be justified in continuing their anti-Iran and pro-Israel policy, as well as in strengthening its presence in the Middle East. The growing threat to maritime security will lead to increased logistics costs for key oil consumers. This situation directly affects China, one of the key consumers of oil, and European countries with large industrial potential, such as Germany.

Prospects Of War In Persian Gulf Region

Global Hawk shoot down

However, many countries in the region understand that the United States will not be able to protect them in the case of a serious conflict. Bolton couldn’t please his Arab friends with the resumption of US military assistance to the forces of the Arab coalition, which had been frozen due to humanitarian concerns and the Khashoggi case. The US Senate approved 22 resolutions, which proscribe the United States from concluding weapons deals with Saudi Arabia and other Arab countries without the prior approval of Congress. Bolton made it clear that the Arabs shouldn’t rely on the participation of US troops in the fight against the Houthis. Before Trump, the United States could easily unleash wars “for democracy”, but now the consequences of the war with Iran cannot be predicted, and even the United States cannot be confident of victory.

In the case of an attack, Iran could destroy vital facilities in the Persian Gulf, such as oil refineries, hydropower plants and desalination systems. The new military doctrine of Iran adopted in 1988 aims to transfer the war to enemy’s territory. For example, Iran could use Syria, Lebanon and Gaza as a launching pad to strike Israel, similar to the way it uses Yemen against Saudi Arabia.

As mentioned above, some countries are worried that Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates are trying to dominate in the region. A fully-fledged war could lead to a repartition of influence and the rise of the pro-Iranian Shi’a, which would collapse the oil-rich Sunni monarchies. As a result the world might be overcome by an economic crisis, perhaps even more global than all the previous ones.

Thus, in the short term both sides are likely to continue to slide into a sluggish confrontation until something happens that could move the conflict off the ground. Trump will not make major adjustments in his policy toward Iran. Firstly, because of fears of image loss on the eve of the presidential election 2020. Secondly, because of the position of his closest allies in the region.

The Islamic Republic, for its part, will not meet the US halfway. Iran sees any concessions as a potential threat to its survival. Remembering what happened to Saddam Hussein after he agreed to the US disarmament requirements, the Iranian leadership will never make the same mistake. Despite mutual threats, neither will the United States deploy a full-scale war, nor will Iranian units strike at the regional positions of the Americans. A war will begin only if one of the parties crosses the red line, but so far no side is ready to do so. Therefore, it is still premature to talk about the new Gulf War.

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  • verner

    not easy being a paranoid arab on the west side of the persian gulf and seeing 80million shias on the east side and having to befriend the evil enemy israel and the disintegrating states of A to sort of make a stance they otherwise wouldn’t have. poor buggers, money doesn’t solve all problems and once Iran has taken out ras tanura for deliveries of saudi crude, crown prince mohammed bin salman (of fake leonardo da vinci 450million bucks buy -real value at best 1.5million bucks) will be stranded with virtually no money in the purse. and the hormuz straight closed for a long long time. Iran certainly holdsthe good cards, the dunce nothing much and mbs nothing nothing.

    • Zionism = EVIL

      Actually it is the NORTH and SOUTH shores of the Persian Gulf. Iran has the longest North Shore coastline over over 2,000 kms from Arvand Rood to Hormuz. The Wahhabi Arab puppet regimes are hardly a match for Iran and most of them even recognize that, as the well written analysis clearly states that Kuwait, Oman and Qatar are not interested in any confrontation with Iran, that just leaves the Emirati pimps and Saudi whores of Zionism who do not even have the population of metro Tehran to take on Iran.

  • Rhodium 10

    GB and Egipt are provoking Iran stopping petrol vessel in Gibraltar strait and Suez to see his reaction!..if Iran doesnt do anything the pressure will continue…but if Iran stop petrol vessel of these countries or others in Hormuz…then Iran can win this conflict!…Hormuz is the key!

    • bla

      true ; i agree.

    • Sinbad2

      Nah, totally wrong.
      Iran could withstand a FUKUS attack, but closing the Gulf would mean the whole world would unite against Iran.
      They will take their revenge against Britain, but at a time and place of their choosing.

      Closing the Persian Gulf is Iran’s nuclear option, only to be used as a last resort.

  • Uwe

    All the idiots who ingineered the drop of JCPOA have to face the consequence. They just imagined Iran will drop also missile program. Now they want to talk missing the fact now no credibility remains. The only option for Iran is to get that bomb and the desired respect with it. Look what happened with countries not having the bomb.

    • Zionism = EVIL

      Indeed. JCPOA was a bad deal for Iran from day one. Ahmadinejad never agreed to it and was removed as he advocated a nuclear armed Iran. Iran today is the only country that faces an existential threat and is a national obligation to test a nuke and put its enemies on notice. The confused mullahs and the babbling idiot Zarif have played the nuclear card very poorly and got Iran in a needless jam. The only language the Americunt thug regime and its Zionist whore masters understand is strength. Iran has no option but to test a nuke.

      • LavXolm

        Nukes would not be necessary at all if the Europeans just got a spine and stand up to the neocons, as it is in their own interest to do so. The EU/NATO enables US exceptionalism and regime change militarism.

  • klove and light

    “A war will begin only if one of the parties crosses the red line, but so far no side is ready to do so. Therefore, it is still premature to talk about the new Gulf War.”

    LOL…. the british pigs just stole a supertanker fully loaded with oil……….I wonder how any other Nation would react?????and i wonder, if that is just the beginning including the fallse flag tanker attacks ……
    so if they rob another tanker??? and another??? and another????

    My Point is…..that certain pigs controlled by jewish satanic pigs Need a war and will do everything in their power to get it.And with the Control they have over various nations and/or their policies regarding Iran/middle east and the Control they have over certain intelligence agencies and media…

    the Question is not WILL

    but

    rather

    WHEN will war start!!!

  • RichardD

    A blockade is an act war. And the British have taken the first step in implementing one with seizing the Iranian tanker. Whether it crosses the threshold to put the UK in a war with Iran probably depends on how the issue is resolved. If the British back down and release the tanker and allow it to proceed. That will diffuse the situation, assuming that there are no further incidents. If they don’t. Then it will be viewed as an effort to escalate the situation.

    • AJ

      The Gibraltar court gave them 14 days to hold the tanker when thats up they will either have to release it or apply for further extension but they can not hold it indefinitely. It wouldnt surprise me if they expect some sort of fine to be paid.

      • RichardD

        The whole thing looks like a scam to me from the git go. The Iranians say that a super tanker can’t unload at the Syrian port due to a lack of facilities for a ship that size. The number a facilities where a super tanker can unload are limited. If the ship was in international waters when it was seized. The Brits have no case that I’m aware of. EU sanctions lack jurisdiction outside of the EU. The Gibraltar court is obviously a kangaroo court.

        • ©igare☘☘e👽Sm⚽️k🚬ng🦉Man️🎲

          Gibraltar is part of Spain and if the UK makes the mistake and leaves the EU then the pressure against them and in favour of Gibraltar becoming part of Spain again will be immense by the EU.

        • Sinbad2

          The British are using the American line that we are just aiding a friend, Gibraltar, but they just don’t have the power to pull it off.
          It will cost a lot of money to escort every British oil tanker in the Persian Gulf.
          And most likely if Iran does take revenge, they will do it elsewhere, like they did with Lockerbie.

  • Assad must stay (gr8rambino)

    Iran will always be triumphant, they have God as their mightiest defender

    • ©igare☘☘e👽Sm⚽️k🚬ng🦉Man️🎲

      My friend, thats is exactly the kinda stuff the Deep State War machines feeds on, what you just said.

      In the name of GOD(s) humans have died through the centuries…poor humans… humans that were jobless that were fed up with the establishment…humans that were easy to manipulate in believing in God and magic and devine intervention and whatnot…

      And with them other innocent humans died too.

      You know who never dies… Who stays behind watching their bank accounts grow bigger and bigger…those with the stocks on war companies …cause WAR = MONEY.

      And God (if there is one) has (would have) nothing to do with it.

      You dont need no imaginary friends… what you need is knowledge.
      You need smart people, and then, after you got those, then you need the guns to fight back … and the fight is not only on the battlefield…or if u prefer the battlefield is not where tanks fight or jets do dogfights or warships sink one another etc…its also the MEDIA…its the war of propaganda…

      So … a dumb person will always lose no matter what guns they have …

      Knowledge is the greatest weapon.

      😉👍

      • Brother Ma

        All true and typical ZioAmericana blaiming the victim again.

    • Zionism = EVIL

      It is more than that :) Iran is a historical powerhouse with over 83 million educated and very nationalistic people whose illustrious history dates back over 3,000 years to the Zoroastrian era. The world’s first monotheistic religions and even Hinduism and Buddhism are by-products of Persian philosophy. The Wahhabi puppet regimes strut on Americunt and Zionist tails and are hardly a match for Iran despite the 40 years of total sanctions and embargo. Iran has developed a robust military capability for indefinite asymmetrical warfare over a 2.5 million sq kilometer Shia crescent. All of NATO stooges combined can not take on Iran in a very costly war that will go nuclear in a very short and burn the Zionists, Saudi scum and Emirati whores and many European nations. From my knowledge of Iranian nuclear and technical infrastructure, it does not take a genius to realize that a rich and cultured powerhouse like Iran does not have the capacity or skills to develop nukes. Nuclear technology is over 70 year old and even impoverished shitholes like India and Pakistan could develop it, so for Iran it is child’s play. In reality the mullahs and the cuckold Zarif have played the whole nuclear card very poorly and the JCPOA was not sustainable. It would have been more rational to pull out of the NPT like DPRK did and test a nuke. Instead Iran chose an ambiguous turn key option increasing the economic costs to its people. In the current Americunt criminals and Zionist parasites rule of the jungle, the only means to eternal survival is to have nuclear weapons. Pakistan proved quite effectively after down three Indian jets and a helicopter in short sharp combat as India was check-mated due to nukes and did not want to escalate. Iran’s best option is to openly test a nuke and put its enemies on permanent notice. One bullet fired in Iran’s direction and the Zionist arseholes are done!

      • dinnedup

        Sure I can agree with your comment about Persian philosophy as the more civilized, THEREFORE most likely to ensure progress for the benefit of all humans-ZIONISM is parasitic philosophy as it encourages incremental theft, humiliation, savagery and hypocrisy. Take a look at the so called western civilized hegemony sphere and you will get a ll manners of moral deprivation in the guise of democracy no near to the Greek philosophers’ outlines.’In other words, the Iran we see being demonized via Zionist controlled media is more preferable to contemplate.

        • Hisham Saber

          You are correct, the vast, overwhelming majority of todays Jews are biological parasites.

          Lets cut to the chase. Zionism came about just recently, 1898, but there has been a global Jewish problem much earlier than that.

          Remember, they as a race, through the teaching of the diabolical Talmud, have been expelled/exiled 109 times since 250 A.D., Carthage, up until 1948 Arab countries.

      • Hisham Saber

        I’ll bet my family farm that Iran already has all the components to field many nukes. They just right now have a ‘ Fatwah ‘ , or religious edict/ruling saying they are un-Islamic. But the Quran clearly states that one must fight oppression, and fight your enemies as they fight you.

        So conventionally, Iran has nothing to worry about, and can easily conquer the whole region. If Israel, or the U.S. use nukes, the Iranians will simply annul the ‘ Fatwah ‘ , or reverse ot by way of the Supreme Expedentiary Council, a religious Shia authority that Ayatollah Khamenei is the leader of and Iran can assemble nuclear tipped ballistic missiles in very short order. And use them. Remember, Israel has no-zero strategic depth to speak of. A war on Iran means Israel will be overrun, lost for all time. Even if the U.S., British and French send their forces, there simply isn’t enough strategic depth. They will be walking into the jaws of a lion. It would be a major rout, or total annihilation of U.S. and co, armies, plus the backwards, insignificant Gulf Arab monarchies that will implode under massive barrages of Iranian ballistic missiles striking their major infrastructure that they are so dependent on.

        Thus, as of right now, Iran has nuclear capability, just also has nuclear ambiguity, as to spare it headaches at the U.N. and world stage. Kind of like North Korea. North Korea even cooperated with Iran and exchanged vital data together on two staged long range, heavy load ballistic missile technology with MIRV re-entry warheads that are independently guided and this in military jargon is called ‘ Fractional Orbital Bombardment ‘ .

        In the case of all out war, Iran will have many surprises. Remember also, your best weapon is the one your enemy does not know about.

        The Shia are roughly 400 million worldwide, think of the vast pool the Iranians can muster from this giant population in terms of reserves, and outright angry, determined volunteers.

        • vaderfater

          So conventionally, Iran has nothing to worry about, and can easily conquer the whole region.

          This though also Hirohito …

  • Lazy Gamer

    Im still wondering whether Obama green lighted the whole thing or he just kicked the can to the next president. lol

  • RichardD

    It will be interesting to see if there’s any official confirmation or denial of this report:

    “Five armed Iranian military boats have allegedly approached a British oil tanker in the Persian Gulf requesting the vessel to change course, but were scared off by a UK warship, US defense officials claimed.

    The incident reportedly happened on Wednesday when the tanker British Heritage was sailing through the narrow Strait of Hormuz, anonymous government officials told CNN and Reuters. The boats, apparently belonging to Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, allegedly requested the British vessel to change course and enter Iranian territorial waters. …

    the US announced it was looking to put together a maritime “coalition” that would “ensure freedom of navigation both in the Straits of Hormuz and Bab al-Mandeb.” The Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff General Joseph Dunford said the US is in contact with “a number of countries” to see which ones “have the political will” to support the initiative.”

    – Iran accused of botched UK tanker raid… just DAY after US call to arms against Tehran –

    https://www.rt.com/news/463877-uk-iran-oil-tanker/

    • RichardD

      – Iran’s Revolutionary Guards deny trying to stop UK tanker in Persian Gulf –

      https://www.rt.com/news/463885-uk-tanker-revolutionary-guards/

    • Hisham Saber

      If the Iranians wanted to take over a British supertanker in the Hormuz, they would have accomplished this quite easily. This is fake news.

      • RichardD

        Yes, they could have. But it’s unlikely that the would have been able to easily maintain control of it and impounded it. Because a British naval and marine force from Oman would have contested it. And without a major escalation of hostilities with both British and US forces in the gulf kicking off a shooting war. The Iranians would of had to relinquish control.

  • omrizkiblog

    Gotta nuked isisrael ASAP…. ☕

    • vaderfater

      The palestines will be happy.

  • peter mcloughlin

    Iran cannot make concessions, to do so would be ‘a potential threat to its survival’. Crippling sanctions might force it to cross that red line. Equally, President Trump might step into the abyss from frustration and sense of humiliation, convinced by his advisors victory will be swift and re-election certain. This regional crisis has all the makings of world war, interconnected with other theaters of conflict. It’s only a matter of time.
    https://www.ghostsofhistory.wordpress.com/

    • Hisham Saber

      Maj. Gen. of the IRGC , Sulemenei,,said publicly that Iran will not accept sanctions for very much longer.

      • vaderfater

        And what can do? Nothing. This general is stupid, should be kicked out.

        • Hisham Saber

          No, you are stupid, you Jewish fucking pig.

  • S Melanson

    I liked this article but was disappointed with the line about Iran manipulation of Yemen against Saudi Arabia. It was a statement entirely out of place in the context of the rest of the article

    • vaderfater

      But Teheran really manipulates with Houthis.

  • Noland

    Lol, one of the weakest most ‘impartiao’ articles ever.
    You all sure mosa hasn’t infiltrated?