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Pro-Western Armenian Government Lost Nagorno-Karabakh, But Russia Gained It

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At least twelve Il-76 military transport aircraft have delivered servicemen of the 15th Peacekeeping Brigade to Armenia, the Russian Defense Ministry reported on the evening of November 10.

“Planes of the Military Transport Aviation have delivered more than 200 servicemen as well as armored personnel carriers, armored vehicles and communications equipment,” the satement said.

The total strength of the Russian peacekeeping contingent that would be deployed in the Nagorno-Karabakh region will be 1,960 military personnel, 90 armored personnel carriers, 380 units of automobile and special equipment.

“The core of the Russian contingent will be subdivisions of the 15th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade (peacekeeping) of the Central Military District,” the statement added.

In order to monitor the compliance with the ceasefire regime, Russia will establish observation posts along the contact line in Nagorno-Karabakh and along the Lachin corridor. To control the peacekeeping operation, the command of the Russian peacekeeping forces will be deployed in the area of Stepanakert.

Pro-Western Armenian Government Lost Nagorno-Karabakh, But Russia Gained It

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After the full implementation of the peace deal signed by Armenia with Azerbaijan after the de-facto loss of the war, the only factor providing security to the remaining Armenians in the Nagorno-Karabakh region will be the Russian military presence there. At the same time, practical actions (not propaganda) of the current government of Armenia have demonstrated that Yerevan is not interested in the Nagorno-Karabakh territory. Even in the hardest days of the war, Yerevan has not initiated steps to recognize the Republic of Nagorno-Karabakh as an independent state or as a part of Armenia. Also, no regular Armenian troops were sent to fight Azerbaijan in the region.

Therefore, Stepanakert and nearby areas, including the Lachin corridor, just became the area of the Russian influence. Another factor is the control of Russian border guards over the transport corridor between Azerbaijan and its Nakhchivan Autonomous Republic through southern Armenia, which was agreed as a part of the peace deal. Additionally to the overwhelming military advantage and the economic/political influence on Azerbaijan, this also a factor that would play its own role in containing potential attempts of Azerbaijan to resume military actions there. On the other hand, it should be noted that with the Armenian surrender of Azerbaijani districts and the capture of Shusha by Azerbaijan, Baku achieved most of its military and political goals. Thus, it is also not interested in the escalation.

In the case of the goodwill posture by Azerbaijan and the Russian interest in the region, the remaining Armenian-populated Nagorno-Karabakh areas would have notable chances to resume their economic and social development as a factor of the permanent peace in the region.

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