Written by James M. Dorsey
NATO’s spat over Turkish opposition to Swedish and Finnish membership is about more than expanding the North Atlantic military alliance. It’s as much about Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s immediate political goals as Turkey’s positioning itself in a new 21st-century world order.
On its surface, the spat is about Turkish efforts to hinder support for Kurdish ethnic, cultural, and national aspirations in Turkey, Syria, and Iraq and a crackdown on alleged supporters of a preacher who lives in exile in the United States. Turkey accuses the preacher, Fethullah Gulen, of instigating a failed military coup in 2016.
The spat may also be a play by NATO’s second-largest standing military to regain access to US arms sales, particularly upgrades for Turkey’s aging fleet of F-16 fighter jets as well as more advanced newer models of the F-16 and the top-of-the-line F-35.
Finally, playing the Kurdish card benefits Mr. Erdogan domestically, potentially at a time that the Turkish economy is in the doldrums with a 70 per cent inflation rate.
“Erdogan always benefits politically when he takes on the Kurdistan Workers Party (the PKK) and groups linked to it, like the YPG in Syria… In fact, attacking the PKK and the YPG is a two-for-one. Erdogan is seen to take on genuine terrorists and separatists, and at the same time, he gets to take a swipe at the United States, which taps into the vast reservoir of anti-Americanism in Turkey,” said Middle East scholar Steven A. Cook.
While important issues in and of themselves, they are also likely to influence where Turkey will rank as the world moves towards a bi-polar or multi-polar power structure.
The battle over perceived Scandinavian, and mainly, Swedish support for Kurdish aspirations involves the degree to which the United States and Europe will continue to kick the can down on the road of what constitutes yet another Middle Eastern powder keg.
Mr. Erdogan announced this week that Turkey would soon launch a new military incursion against US-backed Kurdish fighters in northeast Syria. Mr. Erdogan said the operation would extend the Turkish armed forces’ areas of control in Syria to a 30-kilometer swath of land along the two countries’ shared border.
“The main target of these operations will be areas which are centers of attacks to our country and safe zones,” the Turkish president said.
Turkey asserts that the US-backed People’s Protection Units (YPG), a Syrian militia that helped defeat the Islamic State, is an extension of the PKK. The PKK has waged a decades-long insurgency against Turkey, home to some 16 million Kurds. Turkey, the United States, and the European Union have designated the PKK as a terrorist organisation.
Mr. Erdogan charges that Sweden and Finland give the PKK sanctuary and is demanding that the two countries extradite the group’s operatives. Turkey has not officially released the names of 33 people it wants to see extradited, but some were reported in Turkish media close to the government.
Swedish media reported that a physician allegedly on the list had died seven years ago and was not known to have had links to the PKK. Another person named was not resident in Sweden, while at least one other is a Swedish national.
Swedish and Finnish officials were in Ankara this week to discuss Turkey’s objections. Swedish Prime Minister Magdalena Andersson insisted as the officials headed for the Turkish capital that “we do not send money or weapons to terrorist organizations.”
Conveniently, pro-government media reported the day the officials arrived that Turkish forces found Swedish anti-tank weapons in a cave in northern Iraq used by the PKK. Turkey recently launched Operation Claw Lock against PKK positions in the region.
Mr. Erdogan’s military plans complicate Swedish and Finnish accession to NATO. The two Nordic states slapped an arms embargo on Ankara after its initial incursion into Syria in 2019. The Turkish leader has demanded the lifting of the embargo as part of any deal on Swedish and Finnish NATO membership.
A renewed incursion that would cement Turkey’s three-year-old military presence in Syria could also throw a monkey wrench into improving relations with the United States due to Turkish support for Ukraine and efforts to mediate an end to the crisis sparked by the Russian invasion.
Turkey slowed its initial incursion into Syria after then US President Donald J. Trump threatened to “destroy and obliterate” Turkey’s economy.
The State Department warned this week that a renewed incursion would “undermine regional stability.”
Revived US arms sales would go a long way to cement improved relations and downplay the significance of Turkey’s acquisition of Russia’s S-400 anti-missile system, even if Turkey’s opposition to Scandinavian membership will have a lingering effect on trust. The United States expelled Turkey from its F-35 program in response to the acquisition.
This week, Mr. Erdogan appeared to widen the dispute in NATO after Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis lobbied the US Congress against military sales to Turkey. “Mitsotakis no longer exists for me. I will never agree to meet him,” Mr. Erdogan said. He said that Mr. Mitostakis’ lobbying violated an agreement between the two men “not to involve third countries in our bilateral issues.”
The US arms sales would also impact Turkish Russian relations, even if Turkey, in contrast to most NATO members, will continue seeking to balance its relationships and avoid an open rift with Moscow or Washington.
“Russia’s geopolitical revisionism is set to drive Turkey and the West relatively closer together in matters geopolitical and strategic, provided that Turkey’s current blockage of Sweden and Finland’s NATO membership bid is resolved in the not too distant future,” said Turkey scholar Galip Dalay.
Turkey’s NATO gamble is a game of high-stakes poker, given that Russia is as much a partner of Turkey as it is a threat.
NATO is Turkey’s ultimate shield against Russian civilizationalist expansionism. Russian support in 2008 for irredentist regions of Georgia and annexation of Crimea in 2014 created a buffer between Turkey and Ukraine and complicated arrangements between Turkey and Russia in the Black Sea.
Nevertheless, Mr. Erdogan risks fueling a debate about Turkey’s membership in NATO, much like Prime Minister Victor Orban’s opposition to a European embargo of Russian energy has raised questions about Hungary’s place in the EU.
“Does Erdogan’s Turkey Belong in NATO?” asked former US vice-presidential nominee Joe Lieberman and Mark D. Wallace, a former senator, in an oped in The Wall Street Journal. Unlike Finland and Sweden, the two men noted that Turkey would not meet NATO’s democracy requirements if it were applying for membership today.
“Turkey is a member of NATO, but under Mr. Erdogan, it no longer subscribes to the values that underpin this great alliance. Article 13 of the NATO charter provides a mechanism for members to withdraw. Perhaps it is time to amend Article 13 to establish a procedure for the expulsion of a member nation,” Messrs. Lieberman and Wallace wrote.
The two men implicitly argued that turning the tables on Turkey would force the complicated NATO member back into line.
Adding to that, prominent Turkish journalist and analyst Cengiz Candar cautioned that “giving into Ankara’s demands amounts to letting an autocrat design the security architecture of Europe and shape the future of the Western system.”
Erdogan keeping the straits closed to military ships , helps Russia with it Ukrainian operation. The funniest thing about that , is the NATO pressured him to do it, lol!
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NATO is led by Jens StoltenBERG, a Jew. The Jews play both sides, surprise!
It’s an agreement made befor you was even born
so, now they want to kick out turkey, what are going to do when turkey then make military alliance with Russia.
Fun fact turkey has the second largest army in Nato.
This ‘.. have .. largest army” argument doesn’t really work as people believe. For instance Ukraine had the biggest army in Europe but see their fate?. While there is some truth in numbers, it is about economy and macro-management of the war machine. Turkey getting kicked out of Nato would hurt the alliance in the public relations sphere as well as militarily although everyone in the alliance sees the turks as just fodder material and worthy only in the geo-strategic sense. You cannot blame Turks for wanting a say in the new world order. Thanks.
i was not blaming them for wanting a say in the new world order, im asking what would Nato response to Turkey forming an alliance with Russia.
The real strength of countries is difficult to measure. Nevertheless, independently of the strength of their army Turkey have a crazy important strategic position. If Turkey would be ejected of NATO and will decide to join Russia it would means that the full Balkans would be loose for the West in the long term.
I’ll say it again for anyone who cares to thoughtfully reflect on how the Russian Federation could sell it’s most advanced surface to air battery systems to the same Country that previously fired the first air-to-air missile from one of it’s planes that took down the crew of a Russian SU-24 plane in the first weeks of it’s involvement in Syria… And then had a “bloody hand” in the murder of of it’s Ambassador to Turkey Andrei Karlov?….
The same government that is also now sending lethal aid in the form of weapons and terrorists to Ukraine to fight their “business partner”???
Can’t make this shit up!
Well it is not very different of Russia selling oil and gas to the European Union. Diplomacy is the art of what is possible. Russia and Turkey are not friends. Historically they were enemies. But I am pretty sure that both Putin and Erdogan as well as their scholars can recognise the waves of immorality and civilisation decay sourcing from the US. To be dominated by the US is almost to be dominated by Satanic sectas. Against this, the old enemies looks almost friends
K… So what you are saying then is that they are in a “club” that the rest of us aren’t in. And that those who work for them including the Vitaly Churkins and the soldiers sailors and airmen spilling their blood for Russia in Ukraine and Syria are their “pawns” to be sacrificed when conditions prevail that make it acceptable on “their terms”. Guess it is no coincidence when Putin said this 3 years after Maidan (https://theduran.com/putin-911-not-inside-job/) that sacrifice for the “greater economic enrichment” of the 1% is necessary even in Russia’s book!
Turkey is a second class power but they are really important thats why USA decided to get Tutkey into NATO long time ago. Turkey have above his head (Russia in the North) Iran (Persia) at the northeast and also at the east if Iraq goes with Iran also haves EU (Greek) at the west… Guess the mediterranean sea was its safest part… Also Israel and Syria is at the South. If you have Empire vision and military view you got full enemies… If you have a more friendly approach you could have lots of partnets… Always depends in the dimensions and pov of what you see in the world around you it was guides you through this life
Swedes and Finns should be thankful to Erdo but not so thankful as to give up the Kurds. Keep them, they are protecting you.
Nato is nothing but a typical bureaucracy. The Warsaw Pact was shut down after the collapse of the Soviet Union, but nato has its claws deep into the money and like a typical bureaucracy it seeks ONLY to perpetuate itself. Classic behavior for a bureaucracy.