On March 6, the Syrian Arab Army (SAA), the Tiger Forces and their allies advanced on positions of Jaish al-Islam, Ahrar al-Sham, Faylaq al-Rahman and Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (formerly Jabhat al-Nusra) in the areas of Harasta, Hawsh Ashari, Bayt Siwwa in the Eastern Ghouta region. Clashes also continued in the area of Rayhan. On March 5, government forces entered it, but was not able to supress the militants’ resistance there.
In total, government troops had already established control over about 36% of the area controlled by militants before the start of the operation.
While the SAA and its allies made a major part of its gains in the eastern part of Eastern Ghouta, Hayat Tahrir al-Sham members and their counterparts also faced a significant pressure in the district of Harasta. According to pro-government sources, the SAA is now aiming to cut the district off from the areas of Duma and Madera.
The recent developments clearly show that the Syrian military backed by Russia and Iran is aiming to repeat the operation, which led to the liberation of Aleppo city in 2016. Government forces will divide the militant-held area into separated parts and then purge militants remaining there or force them to accept a “green-bus decision” – to evacuate to the militant-held part of the province of Idlib without heay weapons.
Government forces in the liberated town of al-Shayfouniya:
An UN aid convoy entered Eastern Ghouta on March 5:
Harasta is now under pressure. GO SAA https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/fd9199ccb3d84152fc1466e80d2e450b602af628842894aa6f2c8ac3f6adaed3.png
It’s a cauldron basically. Ideal for slaughtering terrorists inside.
DUMP TRUMP TROOPS and other US President’s PRIVATE ARMY’S !
Won’t be long now…. US & Patsies had better get their whining propoaganda in quick!
The entire East Ghouta is administered by Al Qaeda. This amounts to aide to Al Qaeda’s terrorists.
Where is that piece of shit who posted here a few weeks ago just before the operation began? That jihadist sympathizer. “Mountains” or some shit like that.
Didn’t he say something to the tune of the rebels being really resilient and how they will “outlast the SAA” in eastern ghouta for several more years or some shit like that?
Funny how he is all quiet and just disappeared all of a sudden rofl.
I’m no Sympathizer I just don’t like people barking at the wrong tree and also people who are into killing Women and Children. I consider myself an honorable invididual of the highest order and that’s just where you lost me.
I’m a realist in my analysis and I always knew that the eastern part would fall as it has nothing to shield the rebels hence it’s open terrain but the western part I still stand by what I send.
Harasta, Ein Terma, Jobar, Irbeen, Sabaq etc etc and the surrounding areas won’t fall anytime soon but I do see Douma falling perhaps even without a fight I guess.
I still see ceasefire taking place there at some point. I see the rebels rebelling wave after wave on that frontline and could continue up to a year or 2. I never said the rebels surviving there more then 2 years in my previous analysis nor the eastern part standing or being a chellenge
Good luck holding on without food. And that’s assuming that the Jihadis even have defensive lines in their rear. They didn’t in East Aleppo and once the SAA got in their rear area it was over in no time.
Every battle is a different battle. There is nothing to draw comparison from.
I also realized the SAA’s weakness during this 7 year war and they could be gone within months from small forces attacking them if they don’t have Russian or US support taking on their main rivals in this game of thrones.
They are still the weakest link. If something happens elsewhere in a time where Russia nor the US could intervene in their favor then they could be gone in a quick blitz by a significiantly smaller rebel groups and the same with Iraq.
Their competency level is very low compared to much much smaller groups in numbers such as HTS, ISIS and other hardline islamist. They could reclaim that whole territory within a quick bltiz if the Russians and the US are not their to intervene.
Something will happen eventually like the Monetary system crashing or something out of the ordinary that will leave Assad completely open for an invasion from a rebel group or something similar.
It would be like Home alone part 4 and only this time the kid dies
actually no, the only reason the jihadist groups got an upper hand at all at any earlier point in this conflict is because Saudi Arabia, Turkey and western nations provided advanced weaponry and an unlimited flow of foreign fighters. The Russians stepped in to even the playing field. Absent foreign fighter support and advanced weaponry from the gulf states, the SAA would completely crush the so called “rebels”.
Nobody came to the rebels to fight for them. Saudi states never supported anyone but rich individuals from such areas assisted I believe. There is no way in hell the Saudi royal family would assist them. Behind the scenes they are allied with Assad and this would come surprise to most but reality. Because they feel threatened by the rebels more then Assad hence his the lesser evil of two evils.
So nothing really equal the playing field as nobody came compared to both the US and Russia fighting the uprising..
Hack this was never a Civil war but rather ”Russia-US war against Syrian uprising” This is what it should be called and will be remembered in the history books come the next decades. I honestly don’t even understand why this is still categorized as civil war or written as such on paper
“nobody came to the rebels to fight for them”? ROFL. “nobody” as in 10s of thousands of foreign fighters pouring in from Turkey and across the globe. Yeah, “nobody”. There was hardly any “rebels”. The was the original FSA and Salim Idris, who were getting completely demolished by Assad’s forces all the way up to 2013. It was only thanks to advanced weaponry provided by the Saudis and the Turks, as well as western powers and gulf states, many of whom fell into the hands of Islamist groups (including the “Army of Conquest” coalition that eventually took over Idlib. There was no “uprising”. It was a bunch of savage jihadists trying to impose their theocratic vision upon the rest of Syria from day one.
Saudi Arabia supported Assad? LMAO. You can’t make this stuff up. They wanted Assad to “stay in power” so they sent an bunch of fucking TOW missiles to the opposition the moment the rebels started getting their ass beat.
YEAAH totally makes sense *sarcasm*
hahah really , dude who the fuck are you , ur a joke , I would kill my self If I read more comments by you , poor analysis , sry kids analysis , go play some where else plz .
You call yourself an “analyst” by proclaiming that your analysis are flawless yet you let your hatred for the Syrian President blind your judgement. The Syrian army has grown very much since the Russian intervention. The tiger forces are the strongest link in the SAA, never lost one battle.
The US has never helped the SAA and their fake proxy war against Isis is a mere attempt to occupy land and sovereignty after jihadi defeat. If you don’t agree then please answer this, since the launch of the Isis campaign by over 50+ countries in Syria (US coalition) they dropped more bombs (20k) than the Syrians had over Isis. Yet, somehow Isis only grew and grew, capturing oil rigs, strategic strongholds and massive advances were accomplished. How come Isis began losing ground only when Russia stepped in? Trump has continued on with the same Syria policy as obama, even striking less.
Anyways, eastern ghouta will fall, very soon! If the northern pocket in ghouta (soon to be pocket) falls, then the SAA will be able to conduct operations from 3 directions. The jihadis won’t stand a chance, no one can defend that kind of pressure.
May I just ask you something? If you were the president of a country and Russia armed a jihadi group to topple you, would you surrender your country or fight back? Yes, Assad forces have killed more because he has air superiority which the jihadis lack and they use human shields. Would you want him rather to surrender his country than risk killing civilians? What would you do? Also, please name 1 “rebel group” that is not associated with jihadis and has never associate with groups like HTS or Isis. Just one, please name one group. I’ll give you time to do your research.
Because I only hear people talk about how these jihadis are “moderate rebels” yet when it comes to it, they decline to hold them refuge so how do you expect Assad to grant them power?
The US didn’t help this revolution at all but some may like to claim it repeatedly but it dosen’t make it a fact but rather a desparate call to cause confuse but still it won’t work.
The US and the 50+ coalitions stepped in to take on one of the major players in this civil war and one that was anti-assad player so there you have it and the Russians took on the other player against Assad in the rebels so you have the 2 biggest superpowers taking on 2 different rebels who also happened to be Assad’s main rivals in this game of thrones chess.
This war is called a civil war only on paper but in it’s actual physical form it was Russia and the US taking on 2 different entities of uprising within the Syrian territory trying to topple the government. So in all reality this was by no means civil war.
The Tigers are nothing more then paper tigers in all truthfulness despite all the asistance they got they are going into their 8th years against opponents who are facing superpowers in the same time as they are fighting them.
If the tigers or any other SAA entity is pressured just little they would fold faster then house of cards.
The best outcome for Assad is to wish that nothing happens to Russia or the US economy within the next 10-yrs or so. He will be gone as fast as that happens. literally nothing can safe him beyond that. Because nobody will be able to come out to safe him at that moment.
I’m gonna tell you this now the SAA alone has zero chances against even 20-times smaller forces of Hardline militent groups. This is just fact and everybody who has been following this war unbiased should know this fact by now
Yes sounds like a Mountain of Shit Talk to stop writing Shit Talk Mountain..
On the other hand the SAA managed to hold on DESPITE the US, France, the UK, Israel, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Qatar funneling billions in weapons and money to the Jihadis. And the reverse holds true also, without foreign backers the Jihadis would have been wiped out as well. And any monetary crash that would see the support of Russia and Iran evaporate would also evaporate that of the backers of the Jihadis. The Russian economy is no longer like the old communist one. Anything that could trigger its massive collapse would basically mean a global catastrophy. Like the banking crisis.
And do not underestimate how much the Jihadists have been bloodied down over the past years. Their support infrastructure has been systematically targeted and degraded. And their losses have been massive. In 2016 they were still able to launch massive offensives, like the one over the Ramouseh Artillery academy in Aleppo which saw them punch through government lines. Or the last two Hama offensives which saw them make major gains as late as early 2017. Since then however nothing. They’ve given the best that they got and have been unable to recover. The only thing that stopped the government Idlib offensive was basically Turkey coming to their rescue, and their brethren in East Ghouta. In contrast the SAA’s support infrastructure has been rebuilt and replenished. The Russians have rebuilt tank workshops and improved training regimes. In that sense, without either receiving foreign backing I’d say that the Jihadis are not able to reverse the government gains with a quick blitz because they first have to recover and regroup, something that the SAA has been doing since the Russian intervention started in 2015.
The funding nor weapons have no big deal at the end of the day or can change outcomes. The rebels themselves were also buying these same weapons.
Everything is available on the black-market. Nothing really to be surprised about or woowed. Not to forget the Rebels were paying for these weapons or their supporters somewhere or other countries where buying for them.
I don’t see any advantage in that for them. They were mostly buying things on the market with their money and other times help by other groups otherside of their circle
132 billion dollars according to the Qatar PM. No big deal at the end of the day, you have a rich mama or your blind.
Wrong, terrorists were armed by Israel-USA-NATO through Qatar- Saudis-Turkey-Jordan….forget your black market!
They were not “buying weapons” you fucking moron. They were actively being supplied by the Gulf States, Turkey, and western countries since at least 2012-2013. That, and foreign fighters were pouring across the northern border. The only thing you’ve been following as an “analyst” is fake news propaganda from jihadists and “white helmets”. You don’t see any “advantage” in rebels acquiring MANPADS, TOW missiles and ISIS acquiring military equipment from Iraqi forces? ROFL.
Yeah, ok Mr Armchair General. If this is the kind of “analysis” you do, be grateful you’re not in any position of leadership or authority in managing armed crises. You would be an incompetent buffoon whose subordinates would probably turn on and execute.
This shit is fucking hilarious.
I bet entire Ghouta will be cleared in less than 2 month. It would be faster if pro jihadi UN didn’t forced this absurd and hypocrite cease fire and jihadist didn’t hide between woman skirts. Urban battle or not, you need to be in the surface to hold the ground or risk to be burried within. And there is SAA in advantage.
You are very bad war analyst, if you consider yourself neutral. At this moment, all the terrorists in this area can be considered death, or they will try to make a deal with SAA.
Remember how smug dutchnational was at first when the Turks first began attacking Afrin, telling us tales of how the Kurds were blowing up Turkish armor left and right and killing their Jihadi thugs for hire? He’s not posting much of that any more.
dutchnational and several others are JIDF/Hasbara agents that come in here to spew their poison… We usually are able to expose them rather quickly now…
Hello hamster. I have gone head on with dutch, my thoughts vs. his and waited to see who was right. It was over events in DE. When my opinion came closer, much closer to the truth than his, he did not man up and say he was wrong.
With all due respect to either Mountains or dutchnational, they just say what they want and disappear in the light of truth. dutch was all cool when the tide was against the Syrian government and is probably despondent now that the war has reached the last leg, on the side of Syria. Mountains is straight out of outer space, in my view, and will change his stance at the floating of a feather. Your point is very valid but, pay them no mind is my advice to you. I wish you well.
Hey “Mountains”, where are you, you piece of shit? Didn’t you say Eastern Ghouta rebels are very motivated and are going to “survive” the siege for several more years and “make history” or some shit like that?
Why you so quiet now? Got a fat Syrian dick in your mouth now?
he has a bad case of the shits. Is so full of them, they coming out of his mouth and ears now.
Open fields and small towns are different than urban warfare take jobar for example SAA been trying to take it for years
Aleppo City is an urbanized area too…
Aleppo didn’t have the extensive tunnel network
the tunnel network in eastern ghouta is not particularly “extensive”.
Yes it is
No it is not.
Yes it is.
The SAA never launched a full scale offensive on Jobar anywhere close to what they have devoted to the region right now. Eastern ghouta as a whole isnt going to be easy, but it’ll be a cakewalk compared to Aleppo. Mountains so called “analysis” of a protracted 1-2 year siege will be disproven yet again.
Not exactly these militants are using far superior tactics to thier aleppo counterparts.. they’re using the Hamas tactics in the Gaza strip Tunnels network will not be easy to deal with, i expect ghouta to become the new stalingrad. And many Saa soldiers will die to achieve gains
LMAO, did this dumb piece of shit just compare Eastern Ghouta to Stalingrad? ROFL. What a thorough disappointment you will be.
Lmao u seem salty af.. Just to piss u off a little more, ur god Bashar Alassad is not gonna last forever one day he’ll pay for his crimes . And yes Jobar has lasted for 8 years and Saa never came close to capturing that district…these defenders are much more talented and competent than the whole SAA.
Bashar is not a “god”, but he is a decent human being compared to all the dumbfuck jihadist headchoppers and goat fuckers that you are rooting for. Jobar lasted 8 years? ROFL, Jobar was only captured by the rebels in 2013, which was 5 years ago during the so called “Damascus Offensive”.
8 years… rofl…. just shows how little you know bout this conflict. You’re entitled to your dumbfuck uninformed opinion, you’re not entitled to your facts. If you can’t even get your facts straight, your “opinion” is worth less than dogshit.
Jobar was never the primary objective as it will soon be, as the SAA was preoccupied with more pressing frontlines at other parts of Syria.
These “defenders” are so “talented” that they load up civilian prisoners in cages and hide behind civilians as human shields. “Talented”? Rofl, more like barbaric savages and cowards who do not understand how to wage war, and who will soon be loading up in green buses and go wailing like a bitch to their mothers in Idlib.
Jobar will fall into the hands of the SAA, and all your beloved FSA rats from Jaish al-Islam, Al-rahman corps, nusra, and ahrar al sham boys will have their little lives snuffed out, and most of us here will love to see the carnage and suffering while your pathetic ass will be wailing alone in his room.
Bashar is a decent human? You’ll see him in court and hanged for the atrocities he caused. Jobar was anti-gov area since the beginning and it still is after all thise years The army tried and tried again to advance in jobar but never could. in jobar there are no civilians anymore and it’s dangerously close to the capital they would’ve taken it if they could. I would be happy to see an end to the war but what saddens me that people forget the all sides in this conflict are the bad guys from jihadists to government…. whoever wins this the situation will remain the same. I couldn’t but notice that u swear and use bad language a lot.. i wouldn’t mind it if u were a teenager or a child cuz u don’t know any better…but if you are an adult then shame on you.
Bashar is not responsible for any “atrocities”. He is valiantly defending his country against a foreign backed “uprising” by jihadist groups who want to turn Syria into another theocratic emirate like Afghanistan. Jobar was not an anti government are in the beginning at all. Most civilians from Jobar fled during the early 2013 Damascus offensive launched by rebel groups.
Again, Jobar was not taken because Eastern Ghouta in general, until now has not been a major priority compared to other front lines that required more attention. Why would anyone prioritize the region when it was largely surrounded and secured from all sides, whereas ISIS and FSA groups like Army of Conquest were launching successful operations and taking territory in other parts of the country? That doesn’t make any sense.
Nothing is likely to happen to Assad. He will remain the president of Syria and he will continue to be supported by the majority of Syrians. Your Wahhabi zealots and headchoppers will be put through a meat grinder however.
No civilians in Jobar? Rofl. Another delusion.
Here’s whats going to happen. Barring outside intervention from US, Eastern Ghouta will be liberated in less than 12 months, most likely before the end of 2018. And furthermore, I don’t expect we will be seeing YOUR embarassed ass anywhere on southfront.
End of 2018!! way too long Alexander Mercouris at the Duran believes it will be a matter of weeks
I’m being generous of course. There’s no doubt the more heavily fortified districts in southeastern part of the pocket will be more difficult to dislodge, but it will certainly not be some glorious grand “last stand” lasting several yers like some headchopper sympathizers here would want you to believe.
You’ll see me around, i have the right to say what i want and I’m not waiting for your approval
I’m not suggesting you need my “approval”. You have every right to say whatever you want, and we have every right to call you out on your bullshit and laugh at your pathetic excuse of an “analysis”.
Good. We will enjoy laughing at you! https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xNbF9PI9Gjo
SAA should use tear gas nad yiur cimrades in 72 virgins fucking had no chance in their ratholes and moletunnels.
Tear gas? Lmao ur a genius u should be working on ground and throwing them gas grenades we’ll see how it goes ?
barrel bombs with tear gas. like chemical attack. i was in chemical unit formerly. it is possible. we trained this.
Expect to win the lottery jackpot while you are dreaming!
Not Urban Warfare, but Siege Warfare. Like Soviet Strategy at Kursk, Defense in Depth. Concentric, overlapping lines of defense. The last few years show it to have been largely successful at thwarting SAA advances on the Western Front of East Ghouta.
The problem from the Orc POV is that they now lack the time and the resources to repeat the construction of their “Maginot Line” on the Eastern Front. That is why the Orc sponsors: US, NATO, Wahhabistan, Ottomans, UN, Israel, GCC are all screeching like autistic chimps for a ceasefire, so that the Orcs can be rested, rearmed, resupplied and given the time to construct defensive fortifications.
The different colours and origins of these maps throw me – but whoever the blue is in the first picture looks like a sitting duck …Yes satire.
But look again at it.
you are correct it does look like a seating duck. :-)
Remember when there was a Penis of Isis on the Map? Yeah im pretty sure SAA and Allies did it on purose!
hahaha – sending a subtle mesage to trump especially as the last town capturd was Al-HEAD.
Harasta will be isolated soon followed by Duma. Two pockets will keep SAA busy until more reinforcement arrives in the way of tanks and heavy weapons ( on its way from Russia ). Once all the pieces are in placed, the real battle will commence for the rest of eastern Ghouta. All civilians will be freed from the Tirany of armed groups by early spring.
How many militants were estimated in east ghouta before the operation began?
How many have been killed and captured?
According to Ghouta Convention all parties take no captives.
Go, Go SAA!!!!