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One Year On Since Nagorno-Karabakh War As Baku Prepares For New Combat

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One Year On Since Nagorno-Karabakh War As Baku Prepares For New Combat

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Russian peacekeepers and the Collective Security Treaty Organization are the only security guarantors in the region.

Written by Paul Antonopoulos, independent geopolitical analyst

September 27, in a few days’ time, will mark the first-year anniversary of the 2020 Nagorno-Karabakh War, a war that saw over 100,000 Armenians displaced from their historical homeland, with a final ethnic cleansing only prevented because of the November 10 ceasefire agreement enforced by Moscow that was furious after two of their military personnel were killed when Azerbaijan downed a Russian helicopter the day before. Following this ceasefire, Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev portrayed the ceasefire agreement as “the end of the conflict” and the “restoration of Azerbaijan’s territorial integrity.”

Despite Nagorno-Karabakh being ethnically, culturally and historically Armenian, the region was transferred to the administration of the Azerbaijan Soviet Socialist Republic by Moscow in 1923. This ensured permanent hostilities and destabilisation in the Caucasus as Soviet authorities pitted different ethnic groups against each other to weaken their unity and potential calls for independence. With the collapse of the Soviet Union, Azerbaijan refused to allow Nagorno-Karabakh to unite with Armenia despite a 1991 referendum finding that 99.98% of voters (with a voter turnout of 82.17%) wanting Nagorno-Karabakh to separate from Azerbaijan. The subsequent war following the collapse of the Soviet Union would see Armenian forces also capture several districts outside of Nagorno-Karabakh.

Azerbaijan, with support from Turkey and Syrian mercenaries, captured or were handed the Armenian-held districts outside of Nagorno-Karabakh, but the majority of Nagorno-Karabakh, as defined by the Soviet borders, still remains in Armenian control. It is within this context that Azerbaijan gives contradictory remarks. On the one hand, Aliyev says the conflict has ended and its territorial integrity restored, but at the same time has been on tirades in the post-war period that Yerevan, the capital of the Armenian Republic, is in fact an Azerbaijani city occupied by Armenia. It is recalled that even in 2018 he said: “Yerevan is our historical territory, and we, Azerbaijanis, must return to this historical land. This is our political and strategic goal, which we must gradually approach.”

Aliyev’s claims that the war is over and Azerbaijan is satisfied with the restoration of territory is an attempt to manipulate Moscow into believing that hostilities and war in the South Caucasus is an issue of the past. Turkey and Azerbaijan expected following the 2020 Nagorno-Karabakh War that their countries would finally have contiguous territory, something that was prevented by Armenian control of the districts outside of Nagorno-Karabakh and is currently still not achievable because Armenia’s Syunik province separating Azerbaijan proper from its Nakhichevan autonomous region that directly borders Turkey.

Before launching the campaign, Turkey and Azerbaijan would not have expected Russia to come in so strongly after 44 days of war and force Azerbaijan to end it aggression whilst making it agree to the deployment of Russian peacekeepers for a minimum five-year mandate. Although Moscow is desperately attempting to force a peace on Armenia and Azerbaijan by incentivising economic opportunities from opened trade corridors, it is beginning to realize that the Azeris and Turks still have ambitions for territorial expansion.

Eurasianet reported earlier this month that “Turkish and Azerbaijani soldiers have conducted joint military exercises in Azerbaijan’s Lachin region, a stone’s throw from Russian peacekeepers, amid heightened tension between Baku and Moscow.” After Azerbaijan gained sovereignty over the districts out of Nagorno-Karabakh, the Lachin corridor became the only transportation link, and therefore lifeline, between Nagorno-Karabakh and the Armenian Republic. Azeri and Turkish special forces, marking the first time that Turkish troops have openly deployed in the territories captured during last year’s war, trained in “conducting reconnaissance in difficult terrain, setting up ambushes on the roads, detecting and destroying sabotage groups in the area, as well as secretly approaching the imaginary enemy by overcoming various obstacles” – all within 300 meters of the Russian monitored corridor.

It is also recalled that at the end of August, Azerbaijani forces blocked a critical road, thus ending transit with Iran, the country that Armenia mostly relies on to connect with the outside world. Two days after Azerbaijan ended the blockade, Russian peacekeepers conducted exercises aimed at “preventing violations by drones of a potential enemy and ensuring security of the observation posts on the Lachin corridor.”

These provocations and exercises so close to the Lachin corridor, by both Azeri-Turkish forces and Russian peacekeepers, suggest that a future war may be possible. Effectively, the only thing stopping the 140,000 Armenians of Nagorno-Karabakh from being besieged and cut off from the outside world are the 2,000 Russian peacekeepers deployed to monitor the Lachin corridor and other regions.

Also, there is one more factor that prevents Turkey and Azerbaijan from further armed seizure of Armenian territory – Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) which guaranties security to its members. And Armenia is among them.

Although Azerbaijan gives the rhetoric that there will be no future hostilities, its actions suggest otherwise. The very existence of Armenia prevents a complete pan-Turkic contiguous region stretching from Istanbul to western China, thus preventing Turkey’s ambition of becoming a Great Power. Ankara believes that a pan-Turkic region, with Turkey at its center, will enable opportunities for immense economic, military and cultural growth, whilst forging out its own area of influence and instigating its rise as a Great Power.

As things stand, it appears that an armed conflict may start once Russia’s five-year mandate runs out. Both Armenia and Azerbaijan will have to agree for Russian peacekeepers to remain for another mandate, and if the latter refuses, Russian troops and the CSTO will be the only guarantors of regional security, stopping the final ethnic cleansing of Armenians from Nagorno-Karabakh, especially as Azeri troops are already training on how to cut off the Lachin corridor.

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Solitario

Russia will destroy these turkish orcs!!

Chess Master

Most Russians turkoman converted in christians

Ahson

Atheists you mean?

Chris Gr

Turks, Azeris, Georgians and Iranians are all against Armenian interests.

Iranian

Iranians are NOT against Armenian interests, don’t make comments about a region you have no clue about.

Chris Gr

Yes they are cause they ally with Turkey and Muslim Brotherhood.

Ahson

being neutral in conflict is now being construed as being allies with mongol and muzlim?

Chris Gr

They are being neutral but Khamenei is Azeri.

farbat

iran is not against armenian nor baku interests per se but iran will wreck either one who does go to far and creates insecurity in the region and today its baku who is only short away from experiencing a sudden death but in the past i can certainly say armenia was wrong being supported by russia to create this mess to begin with creating a tiny annoyance of an usurper republic which obviously would fall to ruin baku and armenia do fight over our territories but whatever we will slap the one side which is doing wrong and now its baku we will slap them hard if they do the smallest mistake they will fall to ruin fast and there is nothing turkey or anyone else could do if iran eradicated aliev´s clan and half of baku´s capabilities

Last edited 25 days ago by farbat
TomSawyer

Again, it showed us one thing: russian air-defence systems are worthless ^^

farbat

anti ballistic and aircraft missile system obviously doesnt work against small loitering drones so you are an idiot if you consider this kind of thinking to be legit than all american hardware is useless because there are many counters to all of it

Last edited 25 days ago by farbat
farbat

if you consider your ways of thinking to be legit than tell me how does it feel for america to become beaten worthless by taliban and yemeni sandal wearing forces because obviously those forces of america got beaten by ak and sandals so what good are you and your hardware to any of these issues just go play with toys or something

Janez

Armenians trusted USA. Russians are better alies.

Colonel Dolma

Trump had properties in Baku and Istanbul and was run by mossad agent Kushner(drones sales for shekels)… Pashynian the fool was stupid to trust them

Iranian

The only solution to this region and to parts of central Asia that would benefit both Russia and Iran is to return historical Iranian territory back to Iran. Azerbaijan and the southern regions of central Asia are all Iranian territory and have been part of Iran longer than the entire history of Russia’s existence. Most of the people living in these areas are ethnically Iranian even if they have been linguistically assimilated.
The importance of some of these regions to Iran are more than the importance of places like Ukraine and Belarus to Russia. Our Russian friends have to understand this fact. It is unsustainable, impractical, and very unfriendly for Russia to want these regions to remain “independent” while failing to prevent the encroachment of both anti-Russian and anti-Iranian influence in these regions. The end result of this approach is a loss both for Russia and Iran, a continuous encroachment of NATO influence, and the breakout of wars in the future which only cause suffering and destruction. If on the other hand Iran were to regain control of its former territories they would be automatically an asset and friendly toward Russia, all NATO and anti-Russian influence would be gone, and all major regional hostilities would end.

Chris Gr

Other powers are involved in the region like China, India, Pakistan and Turkey also. Only Turkey is in NATO. And they are about to be kicked out of NATO.

Attila

Re Greek girl go back to your cave

Chris Gr

You go to your cave.

block

The Russians deployed a minimal contingent of troops under the obvious pretext of warning the Azeri’s & Turks from further hostilities.

The CSTO could mobilize untold number of troops and equipment to counter any further aggression from turk backed Azeri forces. The Caspian Sea is another option for ballistic/cruise missile attacks on the entirety of Azerbaijan territory.

A pointless conflict stoked by turkish paid interests.

James

we always stand with the karabakh people and we will always support our brothers in armenia

love from Russia

Caucasian turk

After realizing that you are just a greek shit, İ understood why your text is just the falsified version of history, culture and politics. It is just tragicomic for armenians who are supported by this ignorant greek journalist having bad experiences with Turks.

farbat

its so absurd you arent a “turk” yourself you joker so you might be greek yourself to a large part either way you have more ethnic connection to armenians than to “turks” you deluded fools turkey is atleast to 30% ethnically greek 40% ethnically iranic 20% ethnically arabic so what is uglü uglu turk türk about them they are just deluded fools as you are hopeless and clueless you will fall to ruin together holding hands like lying thievish idiots your hands bound together by your delusions and lies which will ruin you

Last edited 25 days ago by farbat
farbat

you think you can pose as hostile towards iran and threaten us we will cut off your hands your feet we will hang you all around asia we will put you to a show and humiliate you and after it we will wipe out all your dreams all your hopes we will burn you to a crisp and eradicate you so keep posing as hostiles you will be treated like daesh and be eradicated from the map soon enough we will cut of the hands of you zionist imposter trash and lets see how you will do after that we will make you watch how your buddies the zionists die in masses one city after another being liberated from them and we will give you continuesly the sign that we can come in today and do the same so every threat against iran will be answered with a deed by us against the party who threatens us be sure of it your regime of baku will fall like the regime of kabul we already wont allow you to stay after all those threats put towards iran so make things worse for yourselves please learn your failure the hard way if you seek to learn why ruin is certain as soon as you moved against us

Last edited 25 days ago by farbat
farbat

do you understand why baku is so easily defeated and only worth a single drop of our power its because you are zionist tools utterly ruinous to begin with you have no power which is true there is only alot of chest puffing as we see the imposter “turks” chest puff in general while they fall to ruin in reality practically run towards their own desired ruin

Last edited 25 days ago by farbat
Peter Jennings

Dear Southfront. Please could you provide a block control for the spam so we can block these clowns.

Tusman

Next time, Aliyevs will grant Ilham a nickname as “The Great” or “The conqueror” xD

farbat

next time iranian takavaran might have finger problems and his finger might pull the trigger which points with a sniper rifle at aliev´s head or maybe a finger might have problems and move towards triggers of missiles which will hit his entire clan who knows

farbat

this will be a very fast end for baku so they are just delusional they cant do a single thing

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